Years, including as commander of the field army. General lamb is a renowned on crisisleadership, planning, and counterinsurgency. He served in Senior Leadership roles in iraq and afghanistan alongside the u. S. Generals betray trays, crystal, eus, crystal, petr and mattis, further cementing that special bond that connects the United States and united kingdom. Graham is a dear friend and i am grateful he has taken the time, along with your friends over your right shoulder, in the cool helmet, to join us. We are delighted today to be general jim mattis, United Statesthe secretary of defense following a storied career in the United States marine corps. Theral mattis rose over course of four decades, was commander of u. S. Central command, and while all of that is probably well known, what might not be well known is that gwen graham was teaching at when graham was teaching at yale, he ask our students to lay out their strategy for afghanistan, and as a prize, he told the students he would send the best essays to general mattis to grade, which he did. So, general mattis, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for your service to our country and hey, thanks for grading those papers. At this time, i would like to hand it back to the person who will run our conversation today. Thanks. Jim, andyou so much, thank you secretary mattis and useral lamb for being with this afternoon, or this evening, in general lambs case, in the u. K. Mattis,o ask secretary ask you to reflect for a moment on the significance of the covid19 event. How big a magnitude do you assess this from a perspective . A perspective of global significance . What are the key historical parallels that come to mind as you think about your previous career of service, and grappling with all sorts of International Security challenges, large and small . What is it that concerns you most about what we are seeing right now . Are interested in your we are interested in your perspectives to kick off the conversation. Thank you, ted, and to everyone for having me here. We have to be careful, as a Great Western philosopher put it, about making predictions, especially about the future. We are flying to a degree blind right now, as far as many of the specifics. No matter how authoritative some people sound, they are using assumptions to give predictions. Those assumptions will be proven or disproven in the weeks and months ahead as more data about this nasty little bugger of a virus becomes known and we see how people respond in our scientific medical community response. I would say without a doubt, you can make some broad generalizations. One of which would be the impact if we go back in our own histories, of those of us on this screen, including our own students, certainly the impact will be greater than 9 11. I think that can probably be quantified even at this point. The impact will be on the global order, it will be economics, it will be on the social order, and i think that the denial of this by certain government figures anywhere they are in the world is very unwise. I think a recession is very likely, and a depression, global, is a possible outcome. We will have to see on how we do on reopening, but i will also say that the fragilities being exposed to the International Order, to people who thought just in time supply chains with single sources was economically wise, that will be shaken. But more importantly, leadership competence is going to be evaluated differently. I mean, we all enter into some kind of social contract that we will pay taxes and give authority to people who will take care of us, make sure the prosperity and the safety, and security of the country is there, and when you see the social cohesion breaking down under populism, it has gained some strength at this point, gained strength to a breakdown of cohesion. What is underpinning social cohesion, the social contract is being washed away to a degree. Now, that is not true everywhere. One of the things that is happening is the International Order, where we had come to give respect and support, whether it be the united nations, the European Union, the world health organization, they have been tested, and in many cases rejected as part of the solution or even part of the problem. I think the International Bodies were already under a certain amount of stress, but we are going to see now, covid has really given them a tougher test. As we go forward right now, we are going to have to see if the sovereignty of the state and the nationalist tendencies go too far, from sequestering medical supplies, closing borders, turning off sharing of information, or does this drive , we are all iny this together, viruses do not Pay Attention to borders, we are all going to have to come out of it . These are questions that will rely heavily on the Political Leadership for answers. Governance effectiveness will be written this time in many peoples conscience. There are going to be people who are scared and scarred by this for years to come. We will have to address it as we go forward. We have seen good Political Leadership in countries in historical times like this, bring them out stronger. We have also seen regimes collapse, regimes political structures, countries collapse, so it will be interesting to see how we respond. In world war ii, the trauma of all that and the Great Depression that preceded it, we did a lot of things together. I think it is to be determined if we are going to become more interrelated, integrated, interdependent, or try to go our own way, which i think would be a horrible outcome. Let me pass it over to sir thinks. Nd see what he dont you hate following someone like jim mattis . He has set me up for failure here. It has been my good fortune to have spent time with people like this, but i would reinforce what general mattis said. Wehink the real danger is probably individually as nations can deal with the symptoms, the results of this damn virus. We can contain, control it. We can get around it. If you want to deal with the cause, another way sars, mers, keep going back through istory, this damn thing coming around again. The next turn of the wheel, if you do not address the cause of these pandemics, then we will be attacked in a way which could be more of a greater magnitude than the one we are facing right now. An attack is exactly the right term. Soldier, it is quite simple. Our responsibilities are to protect our people, our prosperity, and way of life. 9 11 hit all those three. Pandemic has most certainly smoked all three in a serious way. I think we havent seen the end of it by any manner or means, and if we are not careful, the outcome of prosperity, the global economy, will affect our children and childrens children. So dealing with the cause whether it is wet markets in asia, whether it is bushmeat markets in africa, whether it is in south america, all of these things can only be addressed as a collective, as part of an allied cause to deal with something which will rip our hearts out and take away their future our future and our childrens future if we dont address it. So i think the importance of reaffirming what it is to be an not theit is convenience, it is not comfortable, not tangible. To be in ally requires to be an ally requires commitment. It takes time and trust. It does all that, but it is over a huge amount of time. In preparation for this, i came upon what i think is probably the most accurate articulation of what an ally is, and it was the natchez and, secretary of state, dean after send n, secretary of state, 1949, when they went to sign the nato treaty in washington. His line was simply this, the reality which is set down here is not created here, the reality is the unity of belief, of spirit, of interests, of the community of nations represented here is the product of many centuries of common thought and the blood of many simple and brave men and women, and it is well that these truths be known. That is what it is to be an ally. That is what it takes to deal with something. Dont throw blame. In the 1930s, the blame was on us to allow germany to rearm, how we the englishspeaking people, through our carelessness out goodure and nature allowed the wicked to be rearmed. The guilt lay with germany, the damn blame lay with us. If we do not recognize that now, and that is across government, thats across all political parties, the social contract, it is in fact the great work being done by commerce and business look at bill gates. What a fantastic effort he has put into trying to grapple with this problem and bring those parts together in an allied cause, no different than the Marshall Plan. If we do that, we might just have a chance as we look forward. If we dont, the answer is the future is going to be challenging. If you think we will be ok alone, you absolutely will not. He. Thank you so much, general lamb. I want to give general mattis an opportunity to respond to that, who has of course written very passionately about the importance of allies and allies to United States interests and the world order. Your service in nato and other leadership roles, working closely with allies. General mattis, what would a greater allied approach look like, do you think, in the current covid19 context . It is not, of course, a traditional military threat, but are there military, defense leadership planning lessons you might apply to how you would approach this broader Global Challenge . Just the fact that yale has graeme on right now, i used to remind my american officers that not all the good ideas come from the nation with the most aircraft carriers. Graeme lamb, who has never received public acclaim for it, but he is the one who broke the and led toic in iraq the shift in our tactics and approach, for which some american generals have been given credit. In fact, it came from allies. The three things i learned about defending america from any years of you0 odd paying my tuition were allies, allies, allies. I do not know how to construct, whether it be against covid or against fascism or communism or militarism, i do not know how to defend america, because we dont just defend a geographic realm, although i could not defend that without allies either, but the realm of ideas that grew out of the reformation, the enlightenment, and those are passed to us, as George Washington put it, for our safekeeping. We will see if the idea of a republic like this can survive. Like lincoln asked on the gettysburg battlefield, can the nation see a long survival . What with the Lessons Learned from history, to answer your question directly, what would they look like . Clearly you need intelligence. You need to see Something Like this early, or see it coming, so the person you would do is have the first thing you would do is have something, maybe call up the world health organization. We would be all honest in our reporting, and we would be urgent. We would report quickly. It would go into some sort of international group, whether it be in one location or connected by the internet, as we have the capability to do today, and the best minds in the world would be working together to shortstop this thing, and people with warning could use it. Political leaders would be guided by science and medicine, not by narcissism, and quickly decide to start taking action that would be based on a compilation of scientific and medical opinions of what are the most effective ways to stop this, reverse it, save life. This is something that begs the human problemsolving approach of collaboration, of getting together. The ascent of our species has been dependent on this, and it is as if we have lives of long, fat, dumb, happy, we think we dont need allies, things like the Marshall Plan or nato to defend its idea of democracy. When you get to that point, then you have really strayed from what we call the greatest generations view of how you live on this planet. They came back from world war ii and they said, a depression that left 20 of the boys draft into the army had to be fattened up before they could even start training, because the malnutrition in our country was so bad. They came back from a war where hundreds of thousands of their buddies died and said, it is a crummy world and we are part of it whether we like it or not. They were very pragmatic they are called the greatest generation, not just because they stopped fascism in its tracks, but because as truman wt it, if we not only hipped fascism, we welcomed the japanese, german, and italian people back into the community of nations because they recognize that we needed to band together if we werent going to just keep revisiting this. So how did we get to a point today where we are closing borders, shutting off the sharing of information, we are now penalizing people who want to work more broadly in the best interests of humanity, and so i think what you want to do is read your history and understand why did the greatest generation come home and put the imf and the world bank in place . Well, it is so people who lost all economic hope or prosperity and a good life for their turnren did not have to to a shaven head fascist named mussolini for hope. There was a lender of last resort out there. So where is the lender of last resort right now in this world for hope against covid . We are all scrambling to put it together, and thank god for the nongovernmental organizations, plus theres some some there is some democracies have done well, taiwan, israel, new zealand, australia, the republic of korea, everyone is stressed by it, but this is not the failure of some of the democracies to deal with this well. It was a choice. It is not a given. It was a choice and when you have bad strategies, whether war or peace, people die. Those would be some of the lessons i would bring up to expand on what graeme brought up about the allies. I dont know how you do this without allies. Call me crazy, but 40 years i served this country and i was privileged to fight many times against enemies i dont know how you fight this enemy without allies, and i never thought fought those fights in an allamerican formation before. It was always alongside allies. Something has gone wrong here. 2014, 70 nations combined to go after isis. That was an international coalition. After 9 11, we had the largest Wartime Coalition in modern history was fighting because new york city had been attacked. Fighting in afghanistan, grew to 50 nations. Look where we are today. The australian ambassador when they told me that america made the single most sacrificial pledge in World History after world war ii. I was thinking, you mean the Marshall Plan . No, not the Marshall Plan. It is when you set up nato. After world war ii you couldve have said europe, that is it, thats twice in 25 years you have dragged us into one of your silly, stupid wars. We are through, turning to latin america, asia, africa, and the middle east. You are on your own with the soviet forces in germany. Instead, he said your nation pledged 100 million dead americans in a nuclear war to protect democracy in europe. I question if we could make the pledge today. Back over to you. I want your reaction to that, general lamb, this question of leadership in the Current Crisis general mattis referenced a number of countries performing reasonably well, allied nations that are performing perhaps better than the United States and the u. K. In confronting covid. Are there any particular leaders that have impressed you, or more generally what are some of the qualities in a crisis like this that leaders need to nationally convey . I think there was an interesting, if anything, my experience is that in a time of crisis, most people think we had a crisis in 2008, and these were serious events, a crisis is defined by unpredictability, uncertainty. Covid is a classic example. We are scrambling even now to understand the nature of this virus. You go back to franklin roosevelt, 1933, the one thing we have to fear is fear itself, so what you do is you get this enormous energy being shot through. Theodore roosevelts great lecture in 1910, later on in that speech when he talks about journalism for being a force for good, you get a great deal of speaking to people, who then say this is not working. It is broken. The impression is it is happening everywhere, but it is not. My entire life has been about that, but getting it right. So when you look at character, exposed ins really. Imes of great crisis winston churchill, he was complicated, complex, but that lovely line, never turn his neverbut pressed forward, [inaudible] a battle to fight. Churchill spent his entire life falling down and failing, getting up and getting on. When you are in hell, keep going. The character defined by , that very complicated german, austrian, character is more often defined by the experiences a person has not had, then by the experiences he has. What we find in our leadership is a lot of people who have been very successful, their life has been pretty easy. It hasnt been presented with, all these people in truly chaotic situations, great uncertainty, lifeanddeath have recognized the responsibility and have leaders have grown within that so they are fit for their time, fit for their moment. What you want is to make sure that people look at our leadership and do ask that it, isnt fit for purpose . Are the individuals or collectives leading and demonstrating a level of thoughtfulness in this crisis . Take for instance, i think it was benjamin franklin, the first american, he had 13 virtues. What were they, sincerity, humility, moderation, industry, these were the things the these were the things that we look for in our leaders and if they are not there we should ask why they are not. If an individual cannot better themselves, then they ought to bring people in who can measure up to this crisis. Thank you for those comments and i want to get of the reactions. There are a number of countries offering different leadership models. Are enhancing control. How do you assess how other mattis, areretary responding . Is this an event that is going to create different crises of legitimacy . How do you view the response of other actors, particularly china, and how that relates to Global Affairs . Mattis if you look at how nations respond, they have societys cultures and i have been surprised this was a complete surprise this should not have happened. Surprise usually comes from a black swan. Something that has never happened or it comes from a perfect storm where a number of things come together you could not anticipate all of them happening at once. This is neither of those. This is part of the human condition from only the last couple thousand years. Widespread,hile this was seen coming. This was something we have read about, we had legislation about it in our own congress, and so when you look at the character of what we have rewarded with Political Leadership, you do have to look at it and say, why did we find this such a surprise . Some poore seen stumbling around . Part of it is just do you accept it or deny reality . Churchill got very frustrated once when a reporter said these are dark times, these are terrible times and they are. There is tragedy in the human condition all the time but churchill rejected it and had no time for an said, these are stern times and they call for us to do not just our best but what is necessary and if you do not have people who take it on like that, it does not matter if the model was authoritarian or democratic or has a monarch or whatever. They are going to have to come to grips with this reality. Whether we like it or not. Theher you enjoy sitting on couch washing your hands four times a day, this is a reality. This is the battle of the bulge, the battle of britain, this is the way it is going to be in the leadership is going to take a combination of competence and going to need empathy, compassion. Empathy in this case is going to be one of the leadership tools. When you look at how this is being handled around the world, competence is required. You are going to have to have the competence to do something. Cases thein some populist movements have spawned this american myth i think it was my ignorance is every bit as valid as your wisdom. That is not true. That is simply not true and it has to be addressed as a big con game when it comes up. I think when you look at Something Like china where you have an authoritarian party in power that prioritizes staying in power and expanding that power, more than anything else, we should not be surprised if some of the challenges we have had getting Accurate Information since it is seen in terms for Party Survival at the same time, this is the china that has been shredding trust with the young people in hong kong and the south china sea, the democracy on taiwan. This is a continuation and we see chinese and Russian Federation military activities as apparently starting to pick up tempo. That is something we have to look at as consistent but disappointing with countries where democracy still has some ld inside the community of nations. Why do i bring that up . Could you imagine right now if, out of those countries conducting cyber attacks, cyber theft, if they were to switch on a cyberattack in the midst of this . About what isking the effect. This is why we have got to get back the road, International Organizations having penalties for countries that misbehave. I am not talking about war. There is a million different ways to deal with a country that is misbehaving. I think china is going to come out of this damage in its credibility that it built up. Some built on the hopes of the western democracy. I think its well russia is going to go that way. Unfortunately, there are some democracies that are taking on more power. We even have to look in the in legalay circles they say bad cases make bad law. This is a real bad case of the flu i guarantee you. If we make longterm policies based on this, will governments be willing to give up their influence over the economy . Over the movement of people . It is something we have to look at. We cannot think you are immune from this. We all have to look closely at what is this realm that sir graeme brought up . Nows all under attack right and the authoritarians can give beingpearance of actually more capable of having this democracy. Back over to you. Thank you. I would like to get general graemes reaction to this. If you put on your old military hat for a moment, is this a moment where strategic surprise in other areas as possible . Could you see russia or china or iran or a host of other actors wishing to take advantage of the situation . Instabilityiew this and the focus that is creating a void . It is a real pleasure to listen to you. Covid19 has created a stopping moment. Synonymous with the military. Euphemism for military but that is not the k. Case. We have prosperity in the way of life, we do that. But the department of defense, defense budget, defense programming is a link which of defense but it is not. It is the linkage of military. They are an essential pillar to a nations strength of deterrence. Nobody is saying we are going to deter because we have this. If you do not have the moral will, the intent to commit to force, it is just a pile of words which has no substance. I think what this might do is a relook at defense. Ithe military aspect sense that america is the classic example. You have nailed the conventional superiority condition but the truth of the matter is you are being undone as we are elsewhere. What we have done is spent three centuries applying a concept of trade offorce as the which the military operate and that makes sense. 1920, the was president of the committee of the red cross wrote to the league of nations and basically the along the lines of committee considered it very desirable that war should resume its former character. Be ais to say it should struggle between armies and not between populations. Last, have found for the years we have 80 been drifting into the space below the threshold of war but , as nations and democracy, under attack. Commercial, social, information, propaganda, you can take the list off. He talk about the cyber. Facilities, both United States and britain, we have 150 higher rate into the medical facilities this time because they are either going to steal identities or go for ransomware or take data. Crime and criminal activities are part of that space which is defense of which some of that sits within the military but in many ways not always. Youve got to have the unconventional special operations, green berets, sons of executive outcomes and all the rest but understand this contemporary environment in which we are being undone. Propaganda, information, fake news, which brings doubt into our nations, into the credibility of our ability to in ast stand and come together an ally. Lens back toen the what defenses and redefine the narrative, both in what the nation can afford and wish to do, and put the tools in place not to merely accept the tax upon our alliances as being all right. Somebody can turn up in salisbury and kill a british citizen with an exquisite nerve agent. That sucks. You can cut anyway you like. Instead of having strong words we need to say, what does this look like . Policiesood operating to allow them to operate against desperate the whole range of. Debate needs to be brought into it. China is a good example. On another webinar i logged into ,ith policy exchange in london lord williams said, here are the two realities china will not play by our rules but we cannot solve these problems without china. Es back to the point they have to reach out and have these conversations. And my benefit you to have a who china is part but of global architecture. They are part of the owning of the cause of the problem and they recognize that. We need to help them and they. Ave to help us [indiscernible] the truth of the matter is china has a part to play. What we must not do is just accept their word. They were seven days late coming in with the data and we suffered because of that. We have all got dead people because of that. A by on that but they have the wherewithal and more data in order for us to bring that together, bring in using systems, testing credible technological tools to be able to smash this together. To get a better feeling of how control theable to virus. An thank you. I want to get general mattis reaction as well as get to a number of questions being submitted which all of you can submit using the q a function on zoom. What you think about what general in was saying abou general lamb was saying . We have a question of a broader conception of National Security we need to adopt. Should we think about the challenge that china poses in a broader way . When you are secretary and the National Defense strategy heralded a shift toward greater power competition as opposed to the earlier focus on terrorism. If you think back on defense planning in light of the current situation, do we need a wider lens . How would you think about that challenge . Sec mattis defense always has to marry her time. Ago, wewas 100 years would not be concerned with nuclear defense. The most important thing is to keep a very clear view of what is the reality of the threat . Clearly our Forward Deployed troops, our aircraft carriers, our bombers did nothing to stop covid19 and yet we exist as a nationstate to help protect our people. By our people i mean more than just american people. The conception of defense has got to incorporate for example, cyber defense. We have to protect our countries from cyber defense. Ask estonia what happens when you are unable to do that. Tools fortraditional how you deal with the sort of thing. In many ways, and ive said this before, i think the americans militarized Foreign Policy in the 1990s. We better get back to something more than regime change or economic sanctions where we weaponize the reserve currency because there is a lot more ways to deal with people in the world we do not agree with than just those two options. We are going to have to find nationsfind likeminded , whether they be monarchies, democracies, or whatever. They are just as responsive or ones we can work with, we are going to have to work with them as we restrain those nations that would support terrorism. In lecture property theft, currency manipulation, that sort of thing. If you get enough nations together china is addicted to their experts as we are to imports. If we would get together with other nations the European Union is definitely concerned with what china has been doing to them but you cannot humiliate allies. I got over enjoying humiliation and public my second grade. I did not enjoy. If we want allies, we are going to have to Work Together and move this needle on Great Power Competitions more toward great power deterrence and power peace. That is what we want. We dont want to go toward Great Power Competition and conflict but you cannot do that in a assuasive way as a deterrent one nation versus when nation as you can by trying to set rules so nations, out of their own interest, Work Together. That is a way to persuade nations that may not like the idea of having rules and International Order and not dominating others. Nks thatobviously thi they want tribute states. We are going to have to deal with that and say sovereignty is sovereignty. You will not attack them, you will not withhold medicines when they need them and if you do, there will be longterm consequences that are not in your best interest. It does not mean a war or Something Like that but i think the Great Power Competition is a recognition that the western democracy not just the United States fought for several decades and tried to bring china inside that unity of nations. 1948, we were already trying to bring not the former nazi germany back into the unity of nations. If the generation contrite, i do not blame the clinton or bush administrations or the Obama Administration for trying to bring china in from the American Point of view. It failed. We have to confront the reality and now play ball as it lies. Let me stop there. Ted thank you. Aeme, we have a lot on the fracturing of europe whether it is brexit, populism and rightwing parties across europe. Great power deterrence is difficult if allied nations are not acting in concert at fashion. Do you see covid19 as potentially being unifying for europe or is this something that is going to continue to break the eu or put greater stress on nato allies Going Forward . General lamb i am not a european expert by any means but i do have a view. Has been an interesting project. My opening line would be if there was ever a time for europe to be together, it is now. Call which is i dont think it is going to happen. The reason it is not going to amongst the 27se nations. A view from france, the history and all the rest, is the idea of a political unity. You had come up from britain, we ave a nation of traders. For germany it was all about physical and monetary union. When the going was good it worked well. Ago it hasears its problems but you are not good to change Greek Culture and yet they were being told to be very germanic and how to address their problems in a way which was completely culturally bereft. Or youdue as we tell you will not get cash. In many ways you had a series of tensions with europe. Think as a grantor public grantor public is not going to happen. A place where i would really wish to see to go back to the early discussion about allies, interests, common beliefs,