Welcome to the more than 1,000 registered attendees at this jackson virtual discussion forum. This is the fifth of these discussions. These discussions have tapped the Exceptional Leadership in knowledge that resides in the jackson network. Today is no exception. All of our panelists today are senior fellows who teach here at yale. Our moderator today, secretary john kerry graduated from yale, and like jacksons founder, john jackson is joining us today, secretary kerry, john kerry at time, left new haven to serve in vietnam. He then served more than two decades in the u. S. Senate before becoming the 68th under ry of state president obama. You probably know all of that, but what you might not know is that secretary kerry continues to pay it forward, helping to train the next generation of leaders here at the Jackson Institute and across yales many schools. It is my pleasure to welcome secretary kerry. This time, secretary, perhaps ou might offer some initial perspectives on how you assess the global ramifications of our 19 and then introduce panelists. Thanks. Sec. Kerry well, jim, thank you very, very much, and ted, thank you for organizing this event for the Jackson Institute. The Jackson School of foreign the rs is really underwriter of what were doing today, and its a privilege for me to take part in this with a distinguished group of diplomats, many of whom ive spent many hours with and learned from. Their capacities are extraordinary. Paterson. Ann bob gordon was our leader in syria for a long period of time. There until they had to leave. They were telling the truth about it. We have a great group of panelists. Ill introduce everybody shortly. 50,000 deaths today in the United States of america, and we are moving up at a disturbing rate, obviously. And we hear from the experts still, dr. Fauci and dr. Redfield and others, that were have a cresting, that we ways to go, and that this is in fact perhaps the most infectious virus that they have ever confronted. We now have 190 countries that are reporting infections. The virus has impacted 190 countries. Our president didnt know there were 180 or so, but we are heading upwards. Obviously, the Economic Impact has been catastrophic. Unlike downturns in the economy or a normal set of ebb and flow recessions or booms, this was government and private sector we had to shut down to keep people from being infected at a rate where we wouldve totally and completely or more overwhelmed the medical capacity of our country to respond. So, we are now seeing 26 million americans who filed for unemployment since the outbreak began. And i have read estimates and talked to people, Economic Experts, who suggest we could be unemployment by the fall, late fall. I also hear from various experts that this is going to be with us through the year at least, and probably well beyond. Well be Wearing Masks through the year. We will certainly be challenged with respect to social distancing, and more challenged with the question of reopening our economy. We will get through this. We absolutely will get through it. But the question is going to be at what level of loss of life, disruption,l of at what level of chaos, that we have to rebuild from, as we will, and we are going to rebuild. What saddens me, as a former secretary of state, and somebody who believes so deeply in multilateral engagement, is the lack of Global Response to this, the lack of coordinated effort. Its been quite haphazard. Individual states and countries, our own president throwing the mantle of responsibility of leadership away from the white house and to the governors, the governors pleading for additional equipment. And for the First Time Since world war ii i want you to think about this hard the First Time Since world war ii, is United States of america not leading where there is in act a Global Crisis demanding leadership. To a certain degree, the world itself is adrift. We see the general secretary of the u. N. Saying a comprehensive Global Response would require 10 global gdp, and this comes at a time when we are looking at a global recession. Needless to say, there will be profound impacts. I cant protect them all, i dont know if anybody on this panel can, but they will be found impacts on all of our lives. Profound impacts conceivably on the alignment of the world, the world order in structure. For a number of years now, ive been fairly focused on the increased pressures that create a new cold war between the United States and china. And there are two schools of thought, those who believe it requires a confrontation that is inevitable, and then a school of thought that i fall into, which is it is not inevitable. Clearly with good diplomacy youll never know the answer to but the United States requires good diplomacy as a matter of principle as well interests. All of the major issues of our time, and there are a number of them, but there are some preeminent ones. First, obviously, im not doing these in order of the challenges that present us. But the challenges of cyber, increasingly, it will change warfare in its entirety. The coronavirus, covid19, is not the only paradigm shifter here. Cyber, for years, has been building up and the challenge is now, could make modern warfare a different animal than people are used to thinking about. I guarantee you this, i dont foresee a lot of set piece wars, of the aircraft carriers that nations have, big ships are going to disappear in a matter of seconds if you have a real war. The fact is that with the push of a button, you can shut down down financial systems, create havoc. Certainly have it at commandandcontrol above all of the things. So, a lot of things are changing right now, folks, and we just dont have the level of diplomacy, the level of International Engagement that puts those things on the table. Cyber, nuclear weapons, the i. M. F. Treaty in at that timers, the start treaty threatened, the potential of conflict, accidental or otherwise, particularly with iran and tensions created by the United States of america alone pulling out of an agreement the rest of the world was trying to keep together. I mean, when have you ever seen such a measure of chaos put in place by, fundamentally, one person . And one person who is seeing the people of equilibrium and thinking, lead, general mattis, general kelly, rex tillerson, an absolutely extraordinary moment in our history. And then, of course, you have global poverty, which will add to other problems that we have. And then we have the problem of global health, pandemics were here to talk about today. And that is joined to the greatest challenge of all. Some people still want to ignore and pretend its not a challenge, its the climate crisis. I spent years working on that issue, working on it as a Lieutenant Governor when i dealt as a senator and beginning in 1988 with jim hansons first testimony and all the way now with our secretary of state and we china aboardinging as a partner in order to achieve something. Clash e is a complete here between reasonableness and knee jerk d a ideologically driven process conflicts toward versus a resolution of these issues. You cannot resolve any one of those issues i just put on the table, from covid to the climate, without multilateral engagement, leadership from the United States, and china and the United States actually cooperating with each other. Everything else will not happen. So weve got to get about the business of putting that strategy back together and dealing with the realities of an interconnected world where theres a real linkage between covid19 and the climate crisis. Covid19 saw our president , at first, for a month or so, call it a democratic hoax. He still, until recent days, crisis a climate chinese hoax. And the threat that was over the horizon, which generals and admirals and scientists and coming at us all like a ton of bricks, the crisis was ignored for the longest period of time and, states nowthe united is leadingwhat does that remind . I tell you what it reminds me of. It reminds me of 30 years of the attitude on climate, where it is over the horizon. And youre going to deny facts and deny evidence and ignore science. So, this is the climate within which no pun intended we come together today with a group of extremely capable, extremely experienced cohorts in this endeavor. We have 150 years of diplomatic experience with us on this panel. The high points for this extraordinary group, anne patterson, is a retired career ambassador. The highest rank in the Foreign Service. She was the former assistant secretary of state, ambassador to egypt, columbia, el salvador, assistant secretary of state for narcotics and law enforcement, and Deputy Representative of the u. N. , and i worked with her extremely closely when she was in a number of hotspots, including most recently egypt. Robert ford, a person i particularly admire. A man of courage, who stood up to the administration and retired out of principle because he didnt agree with the policy. He was ambassador to syria. Amidst the regimes of brutal repressions. Francisco paco palmieri, currently on leave from the former service. Formerly the Principal Deputy assistant secretary for the western hemisphere affairs, great expertise in latin america. Harry thomas, former ambassador to zimbabwe, the philippines in philippines, the and bangladesh. Served also as special assistant to secretary rice when she was in the state department. David most recently served as acting ambassador to beijing, and served in other and served in six other Foreign Service assignments in greater china, as well as senior posts worldwide, one of our top experts. Susan morton recently retired from the state department after nearly three decades, focused on diplomacy in southeast asia. And served as acting secretary for east asian and Pacific Affairs and led the east asia policymaking. So, let me begin, get each of you a shot to sort of tackle this, if you would. I just spoke of the profound implications of this pandemic on helga economy, and security all around the world. And i would like to know what each of you see as the most Significant Impact of this crisis in the regions that you served, and what you think we might be doing differently . I know you have to try to compress that into three minutes so everybody gets a shot here, but lets begin with anne patterson. E thank you, mr. Secretary. I think the first impact will be the secondary and tertiary impacts of oil prices. And let me first say i dont think we know whats going on in saudi arabia, or know what is going on in iran. We need to get our embassies present ong get them the ground. So what are the implications . Well, first in saudi arabia. We know that the saudis have reserves for a couple of years, but we also know that the breaking point on their budget is Something Like 80 a barrel, so they will be in trouble at some point. We know that some of the other gulf countries are debt ridden. We know this is worrisome with the guestworker situation, then when they start to send these people home. And historically, the largest number of guest workers in the gulf. In saudin alone arabia. Come from pakistan and egypt, which are two troubled countries. So, when these people get out of work and go home, theres not going to be anything for them. And third is there assistance. Their assistance. The gulf countries will not be able to provide assistance to jordan or the palestinians or gaza, or any of the other places they filled in. The one that would worry me most apart from the millions of people in jordan and lebanon is this camp in syria, which has 60,000 isis dependents. And now is the issue there is they basically live in a space about the size of an american parking spot, so theyve already got a compromised immune systems. What is going to happen to these displaced refugee camps . In yemen, the coronavirus is about to arrive in yemen, too, and its Health System is totally destroyed. Sec. Kerry let me interrupt. Do you know what is happening with corona in the camps, particularly the big one in jordan . Anne we dont know yet. And i think one of the worries is the International Community is not engaged in these camps because theyve all been distracted by their domestic issues. And then theres issues like algeria, which has concerned people for years, but now its mostly dependent on oil and gas revenue. Robert ford knows better than most what will happen in situations like that. Picture is not entirely negative, but i think you will see, at this certain but i think you will see at the very least increased poverty and of problems, and i would predict political instability. Sec. Kerry ill come back there, but let me narrow my questions so we can get more in. Robert, do you want to fill in for your region, syria, etc. . So, i will talk a little bit about it because i think anne is right to highlight a big at risk population, which are internally displaced people and refugees. That includes countries such as syria, but also countries like yemen, iraq, lebanon, jordan. And so far, the administrations response has been to provide bits of money to lebanon and to jordan to help with refugee communities in those two countries, but it a small money. Were talking about 5 million in the case of lebanon and about 8 million in the case of jordan. Iraq. Out 26 million to so the administration is doing a little, but these are small amounts of money. Just to give the audience a sense of perspective, i just mentioned about 40 million in total for coronavirus help to lebanon, jordan, and iraq. This year, just on u. S. Military operations in syria, not iraq, only syria. We are spending over 1 billion. Thats with a b. On the focus, i think american policy, to deal with climate change, as you mentioned mr. Secretary, and Pandemic Public Health is going to take a , real reorientation of american policy and frankly, american thinking about the region. One of the things that will happen, as anne mentioned, oil prices and economic decline reverberates through the region, a lot of states are going to actually be more challenged in terms of stability. And the response is not an torican military response help states provide Better Services to their populations. Ill stop there. Sec. Kerry do both of you, just very quickly, do both of you or either of you believe that American Leadership has been further put at issue as a consequence of what china and others are saying at this point in time . Also, what they are experiencing in terms of our disengagement . Robert, you want to go first . Ibert well, i would just say think American Leadership has been diminishing in the beno east and north africa for more than 10 years. I think it started 20 years ago almost with the problems out of the iraq war. So, that is absolutely so, that has absolutely continued. And what interesting is that while russia has intervened militarily in places like syria , and war military engagement with the egyptian military, russia cant really do much to help countries address Public Health problems, like a pandemic. Or Even Economic problems, oil shock. Gamehina is upping its gradually. Not saying china will replace the United States in the middle east tomorrow or the next day, but i think over the longer 4, 5 thinking out 2, 3, them or even 10 years the , chinese will be more present in parts of the middle east. We will have to think about how to work with them, and in some cases, how to respond when we cant work with them. Sec. Kerry thank you. Anne, he want to help with that . Anne yeah, i think thats true. The rise of china in the middle east has been as dramatic as it has been in some other areas of the world, but it is there. People say in the gulf that the chinese are everywhere now in an economic sense. But i think the signal we sent by pulling back many of our indices staff in the middle east, and im well aware of the Public Health issues, leaves these countries to believe that we are essentially not with them, and that is a secondary effect because they start to look at other players. Sec. Kerry i just commented to everybody i was at the inference, which takes place the United Arab Emirates a year and a half ago, and the russian delegation got up and make this profound introductory statement about how literally foreignpolicy experts from around the world, that the United States was over as a leader. I mean, they stood up at this conference and said, there is a new narrative or you know . China and russia are now leading the world, and the United States as a country has declined in this will be a century of the far east Asian Countries and russia, and not the United States. So they have been pushing this narrative very actively. Let me ask david rank, ambassador rank, and assistant secretary borton secretary thorton, given this push by china to change the narrative, and their efforts very overtly to enhance their prestige or providing some of the needed materials, critical supplies, and actually publicly touting the effectiveness of their system, and its ability to be able to respond to these kinds of crises versus democracies, how effective do you think that has been . And whats the impact on our prospects Going Forward . Yeah, i will go first. Thank you very much, for comment and for being here today. Its wonderful to see everyone. It feels like old times, and it makes me feel happy going into the weekend. But i think for the chinese, they have been pushing to try to take advantage of the pandemic, which is kind of an unusual situation, where they were the first to suffer from the pandemic. Kind ofe taken aback by the lack of humanitarian outpouring on the rest of the world about their plight, but now theyve managed to get , through it, so they say, and now theyre bringing their economy back in gear and turning to providing equipment and goods and Technical Assistance to other countries. And you know, this would a lot of people are talking about, china going to come out of this pandemic in a strengthened position . And i think we can always actually count on the chinese to kind of shoot themselves in the foot. They could probably have made some gains out of this pandemic, but the way in which they are going about doing it is quite clumsy, and i dont think it is as effective as some people are worrying it could be. Now, there are some narratives taking hold. I have even heard singaporeans make the point you made, secretary kerry, about two systems have been in competition, and in this case, the technocratic system, singapore and china have done a good job, but it doesnt explain of course, korea and taiwan also doing a good job. So, i think the systems competition answer hasnt played itself out yet, and many people are looking at that and not convinced. The chinese propensity to tell people they have to write a thank you note before they can get any medical equipment is certainly backfiring around the world. So, i think their soft power efforts coming out of this are not wearing well, and i think there is a lot of things obviously about the mistakes they made early on with the disease they have to answer for. But with that said, they are very opportunistic, and are very good at seeing where the u. S. Has left the field open. If you look at whats happening with the who. We are defending we are defunding the who and china more Million Dollars to the who. Theyre opportunistic but not great at translating into gains. We mentioned the heavy handedness and efforts not sitting well, i would second. They are also bringing their own workers into many of these places, and that creates enormous resentment. Plus, their programs as already taken over a number of major courts as a result of the bankruptcies, and and some people see this as a chinese encroachment program, but who knows. But who knows . But i do think that we are significantly enough absent ever since we pulled out of tpp. Would you say thats been, the retreating of the United States, has itself changed the dynamics with other countries in the way theyre approaching china . Yes, absolutely. I think, part of our allies, who i think have been treated kind of shabbily, and in the middle of this horrible negotiations negotiation with south korea to try to jack up their pace costsharing agreement in the middle of this crisis, they are very worried about what they feel is the u. S. Departure from the region. Whereas there are other countries and other leaders, who were singing the same tune you heard from the russians when you were out in the gulf, that the u. S. Is in decline, disrepair. Even if they do not like that prospect, they are getting ready to have a plan b, and they are trying to balance between the u. S. And china, thinking may cannot really count on us, so it is ever pretty troubling trend. Sec. Kerry richard, whats your take on the same questions . Richard well my take is im mad , at her because she stole all my points. [laughter] on one level, we have ceded the field, and so, china has opportunistically been happy to step in at a lowcost. Without us to hold them to a higher standard, i think china has been able to really, really take advantage of americas absence. Sec. Kerry different point, then, youre sensitive that theres a push taking place by many to absolutely defined china. I mean, china may ultimately be more of an appointment more of an opponent i dont want to use the word enemy but competitor. There are different definitions. Do you think this is helping, that covid, the whole covid reaction in china, and trumps very clear, political strategy to make china take the blame . Hes now focused all energy. He read steve bannon, know what they are thinking. But they are really focused on china, china, china. Where will that lead us . Is that dangerous . Yes, i think its dangerous. You are right. We dont know where china is headed, and there are a number of possible futures. Were presupposing that we end up closer to that. I look at covid, in a lot of ways, as an accelerant for things that were already in the works, right . Accelerants for American Companies that were thinking about supply chains anyway will not think about them even more. Not just because of the trade war, but will think about them even more carefully. Are we too reliant on other countries . It will accelerate worrying trends in china. Because you hear beijing talk about part of our success was our ability to monitor who theyre coming in contact with, where theyre going, and i think it will push in china of where xi jinping was going as well. If youre a tech company, its way fromrant in a good openditional economy to an thats pushing china in the one. Direction they want them to go. I would say thats accelerating the real economic problems they debt andverhanging overdependence on the old state. Sec. Kerry but we did have, president obama put a team in there, we had people on the ground specifically working on the coronavirus investigative track. And President Trump pull those people out. Now, isnt it obvious from where we are today that, yes, china can be secretive and really complicated and difficult to deal with sometimes, but we would be far better off with people on the ground, and with a coordination process than we are with silence and obfuscation becoming the order of the day . Yes, i think it is really unfortunate that the trajectory of exactly the timing of the last four years, is the time that we wound down all of the cdc cooperative programs, pulled people out of the cdcchina offices in beijing, where they were located. It is hard to do monday morning quarterbacking, but if we had 45 people in their from cdc working in the building with the chinese cdc, we certainly would have known a lot more about what is going on than what we knew in the end. Yeah, we do not know where china is going, but i am pretty sure they are not going away. Right . We will need to engage them one way or another. They will be a fact of life for the rest of our professional students, and the students in the audience, their lives as well. Sec. Kerry before the pandemic hit, nowhere more than in muniz whaler, and obviously pushing in columbia with all of the refugees. Take, but alsor is there an overall latin america dynamic, or shift that might take face as a result of this . And where do you see the dangers and harm and who benefits by that . I think your comments about leadership at the beginning of really appropriate in the western hemisphere context. These countries in latin america and the caribbean have looked to the u. S. For leadership. As democracies, they often follow our example. And so, one of the things we were thinking about, you know, when we had the outbreaks earlier this decade, u. S. Diplomacy, with the cdc, working with the multilateral organizations, like the organization of american states, we were really able to provide effective policy coordination, and Health Care Resources and expertise. And what we are seeing right now in latin america is a dual challenge of responding to this pandemic, and dealing also with what is going to be a very serious economic fallout for the region. We benefit in this hemisphere because we dont have a lot of state on state conflict. We dont have those kinds of problems. We have transnational problems, like migration, like Transnational Criminal Organizations operating with impunity. And so, these governments are going to be challenged to respond to the crisis, while also trying to maintain and promote some kind of economic recovery coming out of this. Last year, we saw a lot of political instability, a lot of protests run the problem of poverty and inequality. I think the situation in the region will be exacerbated by this pandemic, and government i do not think we will face greatest ability, but governments will be held accountable and have to respond. Is they are most democratic countries, and so, people, they have a channel to engage. That is my take, sir. Sec. Kerry give us a sense of the order of fragility, if you will . Would you worry about most . You look at what is happening right now in mexico and brazil with a response to the pandemic, where both countrys leaders were very slow to organize and marshall a response. Chile, peru,have and ecuador in the top 25 countries of total cases. I think the challenge is going to be stabilizing the response to the pandemic, and then dealing with the economic fallout, and maintaining political stability. I think you are going to continue to see populations moving around the hemisphere, not just coming to the United States. You know, you mentioned climate change. This hemisphere is one of the most afflicted by climate events, which drives a large number of these migrants. And so, we are going to have that problem as well on the horizon for these governments, too. What can we do obviously with these refugees, piled up on the border in columbia, and the possibility of socialdistancing so to speak . What, if anything, can the United States, can we and should we be doing to try to impact our own hemisphere, our neighbors . I mean, the venezuela problem looms large across the hemisphere because of the number sec. Kerry with maduro as corrupt as he is, is there something specifically notwithstanding republicandemocratic administrations that the United States can offer that would make a difference . Well, you know, working in this regional context with other nations, keeping pressure on the seeko government to greater legitimacy through viable, real elections, is one potential exit for the venezuelans from the crisis they are in. But it is going to require u. S. Ined engagement and leadership, both diplomatic and in multilateral form. Sec. Kerry thank you. Very helpful. We will come back. Ambassador thomas, not unusual for africa to be trailing in a certain respect. There is less travel, less movement, less opportunity for it to have taken hold at this point. On the other hand, obviously, they have been spared the worst of the pandemic, but africa, we all know, lacks a Strong Health care response capacity in so many other places. And the consequences could be utterly devastating, if in fact, the virus really takes hold there. Maybe you can speak to both of those . But i know, you know, we have seen the impact of american , and the impact on the Health Crisis in the region. With president obama, i will forget, sitting in the situation room in the white house, being briefed in that we september would lose a Million People in west africa and elsewhere between then and christmas of that year. And president obama, and all of us, acknowledged we didnt know what we didnt know, and be sent 3500 troops over there, and built a health care capacity. 11,000 plus people past away. We built the capacity, there was no indication we would do that now. I know my daughter is over there , trying to build health care capacity, and she is dreading what happens if it actually takes hold. So maybe you can speak to where you see the virus going in terms of africa, and the challenge of africa, and what in fact u. S. Policy ought to be at this point, if we could be more elpful in thank you, mr. Secretary. So many at to see former colleagues and friends. Sec. Kerry here is the government right here. Said, it does come on American Leadership. Announced 215 million for the 150 million went to frica directly to the world health organization. Where you are correct is things we have done. We have been successful in ebola through fighting and a whole of government the ach where we use military usaid an c. D. C. So we were told couldnt distance or bring d to. Ebola and to covid19 is need to do with a much greater basis. Challenge is we have the great leadership by president of south africa. E learned from the mistakes with v. I. V. Aids and been force. Others are waoefrbg governance reins. Ruption that said we have neglected w. H. O. China put a lot of should have ervants in w. H. O. And other u. N. Organizations. It is time for us to think in people jobs. F our at the same time we need to work a. U. And sometimes it s a feckless organization but what african countries and east asian are waiting for assistance. By the time you get the funds it will be too late. And a we live de in a world where we now have africans who study at yale and other places and they are and come back e and bring this to us. So we are not immune. So many things we could do with the whole of governor approach using the capability of our military, aid and c. D. C. And i not in conclusion my distinguished senior anne reminds me we got lazy engage. And didnt e need to engage because although governments are saying they understand why we embassies, they are really saying you are leaving us. We need to get back there. Regret to say my daughter doesnt get regular funds. To raise them. It is a private enterprise but did have the participation of peace corps 100 doctors a year supplied and i regret because her last name is kerry the Current Administration relationship. T theres no rationale for doing that obviously. Business not in the of really engaging with other countries the way we used to. I think the state Department Budget is about the same as when i was there and when hillary was got the last plus up that i could remember when first came in. But our total budget is about give or take and that is for everything we do, entire embassies, fortune service officers, travel. , buildings, the total we put is in one penny dollar of american tax is ars and russia china 1 trillion program hitting 70 countries all the way to europe. They have built railroads that europe. You can take goods from china to europe by rail. Cheaper than flying or sea. World rs see a different than our nation is defining and privy iplomats have been to that. If you have appear observation with respect to the global picture i think would be happy to have everybody dig in here. Ask david in o that light, how do you see overall . Strategy is china just the behemoth its one party status has leadership that is hellbent be there, theyto want to survive. That is the first order of business. Do that they have to feed the mighty beast of their economy that they have to be all over the place for contracts with longterm commodities. With command and control capacity they call those shots incapable because we cant even pass a budget in the United States congress. Is that what is guiding china . A Larger Mission or bigger strategy is the militarization of their of greater concern to us, david . Avid there are lots of things china is doing that should be of concern to us. China is at i see in the initiative you talk about prince in africa is just a natural consequence of china their system and follows their interest. As their interests have eveloped in africa and developing in the middle east so the prince there presence there. Alarmed. I dont think it is part of the mayrathon but it is a people of 1. 3 billion ours. D. P. Approaching i suppose im not surprised their interests are increasingly global. Challenges given the of trying to get china to help rein in north korea and standing up for human rights and tibet. How china sea, et cetera, would you play china at that point . On thiswould you get in and anybody else and jim, you to weigh p. I will sound like a man from millennial and susan chime n but we will not win, we will to the sort of compete well if in ry to be better chinese, other words more authoritarian by having greater state involveme directing companies what to do. We will do it by being better emphasizing our penness and democracy and our 70year history of creating International Organizations and partnerships. That is what i think the answer is. From d the challenge china. Think it hrwill be not by cutting ourselves off or turning away from leadership. I think that is a path we are be competitive and it will push us in a bad direction. If i can chime in and quote people in therite state department on one of the last days of the obama a inistration we had negroponte wi had a meeting wh athy nobelli and she had come from a briefing about Chinese Development and artificial chinese nce and the have gotten very good in a lot of technology areas. Ut she made the point we are not going to get anywhere by trying to trip up china and of our attention on undermining what china is doing puttrying to reverse it and putter on the stairs when they come down. We need to make sure we are running faster. Stay s the only way to ahead. That is what the american putter is about. Down. O try to keep others we try to do better ourselves. I think that is what dave is getting at. Agree with the National Security strategy mphasis on major power strategic competition. I think all of our fewer be trans will national challenges. That is what this disease is, Economic Development is and all of those technologies, how going to find enough work for people to do around the world. Obviously is a Trans National challenge. They know boards and our right now is on misplaced onhis this throw back to the last century and we havent made up and adjusted our positioning enough to see the real future and see the real before us. It is very concerning, i think. Sec. Kerry what should we be jack up american response to covid19 . Your ideal of where america ought to be now trying pandemic . Th this first we need to get our and have k out there sufficient staff out there and we have people that know these issues. They are just not on same them out there. Not waiting for curbs and so not . Yes. Life is risky and we cant risk the deterioration in american more in these countries and they need our help. The second thing is to can i stop. Does every other diplomat here with that, get them out there, absolutely. You have to have contact with people. Fundament every country is a relationship based society so you have to have people who know people and can get information. That is the first step is accurate information. Is organizing an international response. I have never seen an to a ational response hurricane, an earthquake, dust lace people that was not fundamentally led by the u. S. Embassies. That doesnt mean they are not people in other International Organizations but American Embassy is pushing it, it is not successful. Role that ey embassies play. Then the coordinated u. S. Response. We had some emergency in colombia and someone told me ops centers in the u. S. Government and they are umbled and want to help so you need people on the ground who and thatinate the u. S. Is u. S. Military, c. D. C. And requires. T my last point, mr. Secretary, we these nfidence in countries. When they see the u. S. Cut and god is the nk my Worlds Largest superpower isnt so e what is left for us maybe i should cut and run, too. So the psychological impact of u. S. Engagement and presence is hugely important in my view, more important than all the other issues. A very ry thats important statement. We can probably talk about that at some length. By asking all of our diplomats whether in the of covid19 and its esponse or other deponents i mentioned components i mentioned is the postworld war socalled liberal order at risk . To nt see anybody jumping that. I think you look at the last flu pandemic, the spanish 1918, four empires collapsed. We can take for granted that the recovery when this rld recovers from pandemic that we would be back before in d we knew 2020. That doesnt mean we are doomed, history can move in udden shifts and i worry i talked about an accelerant efore and i worry if we two handle it correctly when we come back out we will be in a very world. Ent sec. Kerry hold on to that thought of handle correctly. Robert, what about the world order . You just asked a question my und seminar looked at the day before yesterday. I would point out to colleagues on the panel and people in the interesting es an article by richard haas who used at the state departments policy planning president of now council on Foreign Relations in Affairs Magazine last week. Interesting argument that basically the liberal world rder is alreadies have big problems before the pandemic and the pandemic may not containing may not ut it change everything but it may that rate several trends are under way. One were them is greater nation nationalism. Responding to the virus manner as llective the European Union or part of , e United Nations system responses are largely on a National Level including that of United States. Another trend he pointed out is there will be new threats lobalism and productions reductions in global trade. Whatever comes out at the end of this pandemic or when subsides substantially, the differentoing to look but it may not look entirely different from how it looked, january or february of 20 2020. In another the world few years will look more different. Question. ann, same then to harry. Paco. I dont think it has yes, of course it will look different but i dont think we should say that the implication of that americas always time is up and i just dont think that is true. They are not allies of the russians chinese. Dont think it is over. I think it is mainly up to us allies with we can sustain it in the line of this and i dont think theres any reason that we cant together. Our act sec. Kerry harry . I would agree. I think this would be an rethink how we are doing things. Nato, u. N. W. H. O. Have benefited the United States. We need to explain to the merican people how that is done. At the same time lets think bout how we are going to lead into the next 50 years. Artificial intelligence as supervisor pointed out the investinge leading in than the United States. Was great to show we want economic influence. Why not use this eminent help african and southeast Asian Countries to retool their economy. Like duterte you cant do uch about but his time may be up soon. I think the nationalism worries on ut we are so focused china this, china that, as susan need to be better at what we are as americans in leading and helping others. Sec. Kerry paco . Well United States is positioned with our friends and allies in the hemisphere because sheer political value. I dont think they are going to alk away from a world order pandemic. Se of this they are going to look to the United States for engagement and leadership. How we respond once we solve the pandemic because there economic to be problems and poverty problems nd the generosity of the american spirit, the equity of , is what cal system will hold this hemisphere together and i think ultimately the thing that will attract people across the globe to the liberal world order. Bit kerry we have a little of a mix there but basically theres agreement. Going to turn it over to ted nd have the questions from our audience. But i will end this one section underneath what everyone of you has said. Only way wethat the will deal with these major issues that i talked about and today is if the United States leads. I dont say that with chauvinism. I think theres just a reality since role we have had world war ii and imperative of the ichest country on planet we are still rich er, g. D. P. And ourer productivity is high. We have a terrific economy. Some of it focused on the wrong things. So, i think we are staring at of the greatest opportunities we have ever had nd november of this year is november 3 is a moment to rticulate that because we have an opportunity to put people and create the work virtuous create a Economic Cycle for us and other people. I think that the world is going be in enough disorder and hurt at the end of this that we to have to challenge ourselves to see if we are going to be prepared to play that role with the same vigor and vision generation before us did at the end of the war when they created this fundamental structure. I dont think it will all be the same. Nor should it be necessarily. Be flexible and adept and pretty nimble in how we move. Ut i used to say ann, you heard a hundred times when i was first nominated and went senate i said in policy is ld foreign Economic Policy and Economic Policy is foreign policy. And we really have to look at the demands of Climate Energy lly and new economy that we have to create around which we organize ourselves and we will acilitate our response to the covid covid19s and other challenges and pandemics that may be coming at us. Dr. Redfield said to me the virus has he covid proven to be the most eneffect hus virus they have infectious virus they have ever encountered. Demand sobering and will our discipline and efforts. Over o you want to take with the questions. Thanks, mr. Secretary and all panelists. We have a lot of questions through the feed and we will try of them as we ny can in probroad categories. A lot of questions the goals should be of state department in particular both in washington overseas for those ambassadors who run a country team. Does state interact with the ealth and Economic Experts within its own country team and how should it be interacting and outwardly facing with its counterparts. Diplomacy inole of this area . How would you articulate a top immediate of priorities in this crisis . Who coulde some folks do this but maybe i will start with ambassador patterson she made the comment about getting the diplomats out of the embassy. Questions a few about that. We have always had u. S. Aid and c. D. C. And in egypt there a Naval Laboratory since world war ii. Heres always been a stropng Health Component of american diplomacy. Initiatives ber of but smaller problems. Coordinate this and there was not a post i was ambassador or other role that didnt have a strong relationship with the Health Ministry. This is pretty much standard procedure for u. S. Embassies. That it seems like omething has happened im sure harry has the same experience in africa it has been a huge made huge nd we have process particularly on maternal mortgage ohio mortality. The state department is the embassy that leads this but we have always had this in the embassies that do this very well. Yes, to bring you in, harry, you have been director general the Foreign Service of the state Department Executive secretary as well. Is the sort of coordination mechan should look like in embassies in a kraoufs like this . Crisis like this . First of all you have to have a plan and it can not be run and hide. Coordinate with the u. N. And how younor agencies for are going to get p. P. E. States and have cities competing against each ver in the United States and United States competing against our allies. What is the plan for getting p. Pfp p. P. P. E. Out . What is it for protecting not only americans but foreign backbone tionals the of our embassies and get the plan. To buy into this we have done this before. With ebola and sars pepfar. It retires learn requires coordination and funding. The people who were against bailouts, they are not against them now. We have to show them that help world willest of the keep us safe and help our economy. Robert, did you have your hand up there as well . Did. Es, i yearsim scarred by my 25 working in arab Police States but i dont really trust the that are coming out of countries like egypt or algeria even iraq about how many cases they have and what the is. Uation and i certainly dont believe that there are only 45 in syria rightes now as the government says. Function of the embassy is o get an estimate and it involves outreach the kind of these ann was talking about, be with people on ground at Health Ministry or other of ersities, to get a sense whether or not what the government sails says is to the truth. That is kind of i dont want it an intelligence function but an information function. Second things many cyst have to embassies have to do is and explain to washington what are the priority of lems and priority needs the country where the embassy is located. Who are our partners with home e could engage in the host country . And give a sense to washington resources, the other whether by lateral donors or mult or private donors sector. It will be hard for washington to get that on a particular country. Very labor intensive if done from washington. And pull is better that together as here is what is needed and here is why it is are the gaps. E hen you send that back to washington and people like assistant secretaries and we have a couple here on the panel, get the job of figuring out what are the actual priorities american in the interests. Is the priority camaroon or is engine engineeria. Ll that has to come back out of washington. Can i jump in with one her harry made me think of and what worries me about the senior e of a lot of people from the tpoerpbs Service Service you eign need people who have been through it before. Ot been through a coronavirus epidemic but been through a crisis and can sit down and realize i dont have any idea on here but i have an idea of what you do when Something Like this happens. Deep breath, you find out people you can count on, you you out what is going on, set up lines of communication, how the nuts and bolts of ou get from day one to day 30 before it sort of is into the system. Secretary assistant and susan may want to chime in, ourof the critical elements Embassy Country Teams to bring is hose back in washington the ability to see beyond where the soccer ball is in front of where it is going to be. That kind of embassy reporting the state department and other elements helps us get our looking down the ield for where we need to be six, 12 months, two years from now. A t is what i think from washington perspective why our embassies are such critical elements. Ec. Kerry i admire pacos dexterity taking a hockey phrase and making it about soccer. Investor thornton, do you want to comment. Secretary nt perspective but we have gotten a ot of questions about what broader Regional Cooperation could look luke if theres not theres not a u. S. Or u. N. Led effort are are regional efforts that greater than at least one or two countries that could be brought to bear . View that from your perspective . Dave says about having been through a crisis before is relevant to the should the what state department be doing in Something Like this . He state department would have been and secretary kerry could speak to this eloquently in the situation back in january we would have called an meeting as l summit in the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis. This is a multilevel crisis with health and economics both involved. Is just so disconcerting to g20 and u. N. Security council fail to come up calls for ents and action and coordinated efforts. To saee regional in a Global Crisis like this taking the leadership. T is the u. S. That has to do it. It is the u. S. That has ton it every has done it and you can see in the absence of u. S. Eadership the response is stumbling. Thank you for that. Running to the ends of our team here. Want to give you, secretary kerry, an opportunity for any reflection or reactions to any and maybe we will hand it back. Live to l live to go alabama where governor kay ivey giving a briefing on her states pandemic response
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.