Transcripts For CSPAN Discussion On Syrian Conflict 20240713

Humanitarian, military and diplomatic response to the syrian conflict hosted by the middle east institute. It is about 90 minutes. Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Im very sorry for the delay this morning. Other news is keeping our moderator busy, but he will be here in five or 10 minutes. I thought in the interest of time and because we are on air on cspan, we should get moving. Ill be giving some opening remarks. I think well get started on some of our opening remarks and then very swiftly alex will be a real start a moderated discussion. First of all, welcome to the middle east institute. Thank you ever so much for joining us to this extremely important event. Someone who is worked on syria and particularly on idlib nonstop for the last nine years, i can safely say that events like this couldnt come at a more important time. Im also not aware of any other events like this one happening in washington these days, so im extremely glad its taken place. The crisis that has developed in northwestern syria in recent months is entirely unprecedented. Not just after nine years of war in syria, but in this whole world modern history. And yet despite the sheer enormity of the crisis, the world has really get to do more than issue public statements of concern. Im going to keep my opening remarks pretty brief because if i get carried away, ill end up saying everything i plan to say on the panel. But i do want to say from the outset i am so grateful to have such an esteemed panel of experts and practitioners, all you willill lend invaluabled perspective to understanding what relates a complex but extraordinarily important issue. First on our far left we have dr. Zaher sahloul who is the founder and president of medglobal, and medical in june of that seeks to reduce healthcare disparity by providing Free Health Care to refugees and displaced people. Dr. Sahloul has just returned from a medical mission inside idlib where he visited humanitarian partners, met with recently displaced people in idp camps and treated patient in the largest hospital Still Standing in idlib. He shared his experiences in the last few weeks in details of the ongoing crisis with the u. N. Secretary generals office. Dr. Sahloul is also a former president of the Syrian American medical society, the cofounder of the American Relief coalition for syria, and a cofounder of the syria faith initiative. He was also awarded the of the year in 2016 for his medical work. Elizabeth tsurkov is a fellow and middle east program at Foreign Policy research institute. Shes a doctoral student in Political Science at princeton university, and i should add a prolific writer on all things syria. Her research is primarily based on an Large Network of contacts shes cultivated across syria as well as fieldwork across the region. Shes also Research Fellow at the forum for regional thinking, a progressive israelipalestinian think tank based in jerusalem. Elizabeth has worked as a consultant with the International Crisis group, the atlantic council, and the European Institute for peace, among many other places. She has a decade of experience working with human rights organizations in middle east defending the rights of refugees, migrants, laborers, palestinians and ethnic and religious minorities. Alex marquardt will be here shortly, and is an awardwinning National Correspondent based on cnns Washington Bureau focusing on National Security issues. Alex spent most of the past decade as a Foreign Correspondent for abc news based in moscow, jerusalem, beirut and london. He spent considerable time on the front lines of wars and uprisings in the middle east. He reported on the refugee and migrant crisis, covered the wave of terror attacks in europe but y isis. He was among the first cairo as thes in revolution exploded, and to make many trips in syria to report on the war from both the regime and rebel sites. He was ground in gaza during the wars with israel and he traveled across ukraine as the Russian Military invaded. So on behalf of the middle east institute, welcome to all two, soon to be three of you. Really looking forward to this important discussion that will follow. The last thing i will say is one final note before we do hand it over. Questions for the panelists, and polling questions from all of you in the audience and from Live Television via the interactive site. I believed information, yes, is on the screen here. If you go to the website on your smartphones or any Electronic Device and enter the code 622500 , you will be able to submit your own questions throughout the event, answer two polls which i will go through in a second, at anytime during the panel and you can see and upload vote other peoples questions threat the panel as well. This will essentially allow our moderator to keep the engage discussion going with all your input throughout the whole event. And i should just add the first poll here is a relatively straightforward one, should the u. S. Try to play a role in stopping the violence in idlib . You can vote yes or no. You will see the results change as we go. The second one, which im hoping will come up because i dont have it in front of me it will come up in a minute and be similarly straightforward. But there will be a with more second one answers to the question which will probably give us a bit more of an interesting, more complex response. On that note i will go and sit , and take my place on the panel. Alex has arrived and will be here shortly. We will start going through with elizabeth first. Perhaps i will follow on and then dr. Sahloul will conclude. Thank you so much for coming here. This is a crucial moment in the history of the syrian uprising that turned into civil war, and i think when we reflect back on this time, also in the history of the 21st century this is essentially a humanitarian crisis of extreme proportion. And it actually has the significant potential to get worse. So i wanted to draw our attention to the fact that, first of all were talking about a massive crisis. Since the start by the regime in russia and later on Iranian Forces joined as well, we are talking over 1 Million People displaced from their homes towards the border with turkey. Those individuals cannot return to their homes. Unless ceasefires put in place. These people will not be able to return. Were talking about the start of a protracted displacement crisis, or more correctly, the acceleration of a displacement crisis. Essentially most of the population in idlib, population about 3 Million People, most of them are now displaced from their homes. They are no longer living in their homes and living along the stretch of land on the border with turkey in camps if they are lucky. And just outside in the cold, under trees, if they cannot even find a tent. This situation will not improve made to securee the area from which people fled to allow people to return. Two areas that will not be under regime control because the population fears returning. Cities, population largely not return, it is not safe to return, and therefore we are talking about a crisis, but these people have no homes to return to. In conversation with people in idlib, ive been speaking to people there for many years. The level of desperation and the genuine belief that they are about to die en mass is very prevalent. This of course has an effect on the ability and willingness of people to resist what is happening, to resist both in trying to still care for the community and trying to remain resilient and also military resistance. There is a sense that this is futile, but asset actors have basically decided their fate and, therefore, they might as well take up and leave instead of trying to save the town. Move toebodied men displacement camps. This is what is contributing to the rapid advancement of line forces. I think that for people who spend time in idlib as dr. Sahloul has, people who speak a lot to the population, theres also the sense that this population this is a population , who even before the crisis, half of that were displaced in other areas. So people refuse to live under the assad regime, who were bused to these areas. A strong population that has endured a numerous levels of violence. Enormous bubbles of violence with institutions, with mutual support. This is breaking apart. People are being pushed to the edge where they can no longer take care of their community. They are now focusing on new survival, of survival for themselves, to feed themselves and their children. The humanitarian crisis is of such proportion that this society, this very, very strong resilience is now breaking apart. There are still people for trying to help others. There are major ngo workers but there is this sense that everything is just falling apart. I think the fact that such a strong population is now tearing at the seams goes to show what people have been subjected to. Through airstrikes, the mass displacement. People also know what happens to people who remain behind in the towns that are captured by the regime. The few who did so, a tiny, tiny minority, images have emerged of people being executed or people being tortured after being captured, and this is something that is creating a real sense of terror among the population. They expect the regime will continue to advance towards them. Turkish intervention is limited. Theres an honest belief that they are about to die, and when i talk to people and i try to understand what will they do, what are they thinking and doing next, some say when it gets will storm the Turkish Border, which is the main turkish concern. While others are just saying this is our fate and this is what will happen to them and we expect that you should expect it. , wek them not to accept it are talking about population most of the population our children, 51 , many women there. Thank you. Thank you, elizabeth. Go ahead. Im going to start with a quiz. If you are used to this culture, the man, family or someone with the children will quiz about something. Said the war in syria and has little to do with us . We should be using our diplomatic power to insist on a ceasefire and negotiated peace, instead based on some measures of political participation, accountability, and the conditions for that concern of refugees. Who said that . Ill help you. Its not President Trump. It is not the secretarygeneral. Jolie. A yesterday in an oped. What we are witnessing with the Syrian Crisis is the lack of leadership in the u. S. Especially, and in the u. N. In general. Especially the secretarygeneral. Thats why we have an endless nineyear of war and suffering in syria. In order to attract the attention of the media or policymakers, it has to be unprecedented. If we had only a few thousand people displaced in syria, no one will say anything. It has to be 900,000 people in a few months in order for the media to respond to the Syrian Crisis. A couple of days ago cnn contacted me because they want to have an interview about idlib. Then they called and they said sorry, we have breaking news. I said, what was the breaking news . They said the previous governor illinois, rod blagojevich, will be released and this is more important for us. So i was thinking that you have one corrupt governor who is in prison being released, and this this is a big news now compared to 900,000 people who are suffering in idlib, who have no shelter. Some of them are freezing to death, and the media cannot basically cover these two stories. Why is the media important . Because when the media covers. Ur story, it puts pressure when the media decides that 900,000 humans in idlib should be perceived as humans like us, then our policymakers should Pay Attention to them. Our policymaker will Pay Attention. This this is not been happening in syria for the past nine years except when you have short windows of opportunity. I came from idlib a couple of months ago. I am a physician from chicago. I have been going back and forth to syria for the past nine years. Other places, mostly Northern Syria. I have also been in other disaster regions including yemen, gaza, puerto rico, help with the refugee crisis. My Organization Provides health care to the refugees who are displaced. But what i see in idlib is something that have seen in any other disaster region. Im not saying that because im originally from syria. Im saying as as a humanitarian, as a physician. Im going to mention a few , andles of people i met that speaks to the resilience that elizabeth has been talking about. I met with a neurosurgeon from my city originally, used to come to the United States every year for courses and been applied what he learned back in syria. He was the best neurosurgeon in syria. When the uprising started, he treated some of the victims of the snipers. For those who do not understand crisis,of the syrian when the uprising started by demonstrations, Peaceful Demonstrations by young people mostly in the street, asking for political reform. The regime used several tactics to prevent what happened in egypt and tunisia where you have a change in the regime, and i think you have been in egypt and you witnessed it. They used snipers to shoot at demonstrators. Peaceful demonstrators in many cities. When doctors treated the victims of snipers, then doctors were put in prison. They were tortured. Some of them were tortured to death. They also found the peaceful activists that are leading these demonstration by killing, by torture, by putting in prison. They also trained and recruited to fight american troops in iraq and basically this is predictable what they will do. We know jihadists will start carrying arms and causing the uprising to transform from peaceful to sectarian and so forth. And he allowed it to fester in many areas in syria. While targeting the moderates opposition in many other areas. He knew that the d d jihadists would form isis and other groups. He tried to kill the uprising by using chemical weapons more than 200 times. By targeting hospitals and doctors, according to physicians for human rights, more than 580 hospitals were bombed in syria mostly by the assad regime in and russia. More than 900 and doctors and nurses were killed in syria while they are discharging the ir humanitarian duty. The neurosurgeon was part of the doctors who was treating victims. His family was wiped out by the regime. His brother was imprisoned and he was surrounded, and then when the city was controlled by the regime, then he was displaced but he continued to perform neurosurgery on the victims of war and also community for brain tumors and stroke and things like that. When the north was overrun by the regime, then he moved to up in one of the largest hospitals. He continues to go to the hospitals knowing that he may not return to his family alive every day. These heroes should be our heroes. Every physician and nurse and Health Care Worker in the United States of america should be aware of these heroes. They do their duty knowing that they may be killed while treating their community. When we talk about the resilience of the community in idlib, the main reason for the resilience is you have hospitals and clinics that are treating the children of the families and the community that is there. People told me in aleppo and idlib that they will take the chance of living in neighborhoods and cities that would have bombs and missiles, but when you do not have a physician that will treat your kid when they have fever, then they will leave. When we are talking about half of the population of syria displaced, half of the population, 12 Million People in syria displaced living inside and outside. The main reason is the tactic by the regime, to bomb hospitals, to destroy hospitals, to bomb schools and destroy schools and bomb markets and destroy markets. The infrastructure. That is leading to the displacement of the population and showing on social media the extreme brutality that will happen to people who are left behind. So now on social media you are seeing these videos of denigration of tombs by assad regime militia. That means he is showing the syrians, even your death will not be spared by our brutality. If you move back to these areas, you are going to have the same fate. Im going to speak also about the children of syria. This is the drawing i brought with me from idlib with children of one of the refugee camp, or displaced camps. This is a drawing that was drawn with mud because its very muddy. There was flooding in the camp and we had to wear long boots to navigate the mud. This child, she is 12 years old. She was displaced with her family seven times, seven times. In many other wars, you have one or two displacement. 7, 8ria, you have displacement of the families and the population going north or going to idlib, now theres no more idlib. These people do not have any other place to go. The 3 Million People in idlib are trapped. They cannot go to any of the to any other place. So if you think they can flee to lebanon or iraq, they cannot flee. It is landlocked. The fate of these 3 Million People over and over. She told me she wants to be a doctor. Actually most of the children that i have seen in the camp, they wanted to be doctors and teachers and architects. Our government here a source of healing not only in syria but for the whole middle east. Being source of stability and stability in chaos and extremism. If we just focus on syria, Pay Attention to it, because syria is important. Not because the iphone was invented by a Syrian American but because because of the geography of syria. Thats the revenge of geography. Because of location of syria, the countries that are around three, the fact that many may go through syria, or many things common history of syria, it is very important, one of the princeton professors that you go to princeton right now, in 1956 said syria is microscopic is in but microscopic in size cosmic in influence. What happens in syria is affecting as in the United States. The large refugee crisis in 2015 when i was invited to the middle east at that time, 2016, created at the refugee sentiment, the rise of hate groups, the destabilization of your it, the brexit and election of certain politicians here in the United States. So we have to care about syria because we care about us here. [applause] i kind of feel, i guess that would make sense for me to talk first, but i was going to talk a little more about the lay of the land and where we are strategically. To follow on from the very powerful human stories and perspectives is a tough one. I think weve heard a little bit from elizabeth already, over one Million People, the human says the u. N. Says 900,000 but i think those numbers are undercounted. Over one Million People have been displaced just since december 1. Were talking were talking less than three months. Already about 850,000 people displaced in north of idlib. So the population along the northern strip of idlib along the Turkish Border is close to if not reached 2 Million People. That is a massive density of population. Idp camps are full. They were full a long time back. There are simply no tents left. People are sleeping in the fields. At least i think eight children have frozen to death in the last two weeks because they had been forced to flee and with no shelter. Un officials and we discussed the puck up the something unprecedented, it truly is unprecedented. The u. N. Itself admitted two days ago i think in the Security Council they vastly underestimated the scale of funding and equipment, and then doubled that financial from International Community to deal with it. Beyond that, the United Nations is stuck. There was a french proposal the last few days to issue a statement, just a statement, calling this an emergency and calling on the International Community to do what it can to hes to cease hostilities and the russians vetoed that. Just a statement. So the prospect for meaningful u. N. Action beyond rhetorical statements is a tough one to consider right now. In new york theres great pressure on the u. N. Secretarygeneral to do something more. Hes been virtually silent on this issue because they have other concerns in syria, primarily access in the regime and regimeascus controlled territories. There is a security conference about a week or so ago. The theme of the conference was west looseness, which they defined as the western world having forgotten and lost touch with what it means to be an importanter player in the world. I think the crisis in idlib and almost total silence from the western world on the issue is a perfect calculation of what the munich security form called west looseness. There really is no urgency or even attention from our policy makers. Military on the ground, just to give you all a clear picture of where things have proceeded, in the last ten months since april last year when they really 35 40 of North Western opposition control syria has been captured by proRegime Forces. So nearly a year and about a third of the way there. Those lines have moved faster on the map over time than they did early on, and i think elizabeth makes an important point that the capacity to continue to defend and hold this military campaign is limiting as time goes by. The key regime objective was to take control of the highway which runs, if you can picture a map of syria, from aleppo all the way south to damascus. That objective is complete. The secondary objective i believe would be to capture the other highway which splits idlib to the and cuts across coastal heartland of the regime. We are not there yet, but the key dynamic we have to be considering right now especially in the last week or so is turkey. Turkey has had a military presence in idlib for a long while. They established what they called observation posts. They had explicit agreement with russia and the Syrian Regime in iran to establish those observation posts. There are 31 now in idlib. 13 have been completely surrounded and effectively besieged by the regime as it marched northward, so nearly half of those posts have fallen. Effectively without a fight. That raises all kinds of questions about why turkey hasnt and more until now to withstand the pressure on an issue which frankly i think is existential for president erdogan. Whether you look at his allies in parliament or his opposition in parliament, there is huge pressure to avoid a single syrian refugee entering turkey from idlib or any other area of the northern border. The prospect of 2 million refugees, displaced people sat on the border, if they were to cross, it would kill erdogans irreversibly in my opinion. Beyond that, if idlib or default with turkey would be cumulative we can see the dominoes start to fall in turkeys military presence and the rest of Northern Syria begin to erode. So the stakes for turkey couldnt be much more significant and yet the push back has been frankly pretty limited so far. We saw a minor military offensive by turkish soldiers for the first time yesterday morning but within hours they were pushed back by russian airstrikes. That brings in another interesting new element which is russia and turkey are increasingly coming to blows. The Turkish Military has fired manpads, shoulder launched surfacetoair missiles and russian jets as of the last 24 hours. No insignificant development. They have provided their opposition proxy, not Jihadist Groups but the opposition groups with far more advanced weapon systems, Armored Vehicles than they have done in this area of the country at any time over the last nine years. They have deployed tanks into idlib, multiple Rocket Launcher systems. Allegedly a highly sophisticated electronic interference system which would theoretically target russian jets and syrian jets at some point, yet even despite all of that we have continued to see the regime advance. My big question is whats coming . Erdogan has issued an end of february deadline for the regime to withdraw the recapture territory. Clearly not going to do that but i would expect the truth to pushed back in a much more seriously at some point by the end of the month. So the big question is what happens then . How significant is it . Does it work or does it not . If then, we really look at catastrophic continued regime advance all the way to the north border. I have loads of more things to say but i will end there. Lets get into. I want to apologize for showing up late. I cover the intelligence as youty for cnn and might understand in the past 24 hours this been a bit of turnover. On inis so much going this country and in the news that is drowned out what is going on in syria. Thats not an excuse but there is a terminus amount of people in washington and in the u. S. Cnn has been a pretty good job of covering the crisis in the the. My colleague has done some terrific reporting out of there. But the fact is this is an unprecedented crisis that isnt getting enough attention. Elizabeth, you laid that out very clearly. I think for people who watch and been observing and even reported on the Syrian Crisis, we are used to these superlatives. We are used to shocking figures. We are used to horrific stories and photos. If you wouldnt mind if you could just please put this in a bit more context of why this is that unique moment. Speak a little to what charles mentioned there about the bottleneck of why aid isnt reaching these people. It just seems so logical, and yet even things like rhetorical statements cannot be done. Elizabeth we are talking about unprecedented crisis with the u. N. And other ngos completely unprepared. Basically, when i talk to friends who work on ngos inside idlib, they said the first 100,000 we can handle. Second we cant can have it at some point they are just gone. We saw it, theres committees themselves, you know, parts of the population is able to afford to rent cars, flea towards the border and find a place with relatives or stay with relatives or rent a place and live in it. Of then, the poorest know, most of this population is extremely poor. They are willing and able to cope with this crisis in any way. We end up having situations in which the regime is advancing rapidly and people do not want to stay because they expect to be captured and executed. Or taken to prison on all know what happens in regime prisons. The u. N. Has characterized what is happening there as extermination. So people want to flee. Even those who have no connection to any political activity, even i know people who are employed by syrian government. They continue to receive a salary from damascus, yet they are afraid of staying under the control of the regime of remain in the towns and falling in regime hands. Because they see what happens to people stay behind. They get executed. So, therefore, the population wants to flee but they cannot afford to flee so end up having situations in which ngos, and do convoys but then the ngos run out of cards, out of buses, so people start walking on foot. People are playing as a poor talk about the war in the previous country. No vehicles around, and families are forced to walk for seven, eight hours towards the nearest town and seek shelter there because there are so afraid of being captured alive. This is something that hasnt happened before. Weve never seen, weve never seen a situation in which a person cannot even find a tent. This tent does not offer protection from the cold because the heating inside the tent but at least it protects them from the rain. We are having so many People Living in fields. We are seeing more, talking to doctors, im sure youve heard this, in many cases you need to amputate body parts due to frostbite. This is something that is, even if there is no willingness on the part of the west to do anything to longterm create some kind of a ceasefire, prevent these people from eventually being captured by the regime and killed or being forced to flee into turkey, breaking the border and fleeing into turkey, even the humanitarian assistance is insufficient. These children were freezing to death or losing limbs, is simply due to lack of aid. This inability to provide timely aid is definitely something that is very fixable. And i would argue also the larger political question of why these people are flying and preventing this continuing plight is also fixable. If russia and the regime were to believe that their jets that are bombing, bombing civilians and are displacing them, and this immense firepower that is allowing the Regime Forces to advance on the ground, if they knew they have a very high likelihood of being shot down, then i believe they would stop doing so. Right now russia and turkey are kind of facing each other, and the balance of power does not favor any side significantly. But turkey should not be stand alone in this situation. Turkey made many mistakes in syria and it led to its own isolation in a way, the route very mistaken policies in the world but at the end of the day currently turkey is the only force that is trying to prevent, thus far unsuccessfully, the regime from continuing to advance and displaced more and more people towards the border. Turkey has not allowed to cross, have to pay for smuggled to get across. This is prohibitively expensive. People are stuck here they are unable to cross into turkey, but if the regime continues to advance, reach forces to the border and people are faced with the possibility of being shot by Turkish Border police or being captured alive by the regime, i think their calculations will change, particularly keep in mind the rebel groups inside idlib have the capability to take down they have tanks and if theyre desperate enough, families are desperate enough that they believe they will now face largescale massacre. This is a real prospect and this is what is triggering turkish, increasing its presence in idlib in attempts to hold idlib. Elizabeth mentioned that u. N. [inaudible] large number of displaced people. Actually the u. N. Role for at least one year and half that this will be happening, and also based on the understanding between turkey and iran and russia and thats understanding. The u. N. Ocha office will coordinate the crossborder relief from turkey to Northern Syria in idlib, warned one year and half ago that this may be happening and 11. 5ve to deal with Million People who will be displaced. U. N. Knowing this will happen caught by surprise and the only had 30 million for emergency funds to do with this sheer number of people who are displaced. Since a report on cnn yesterday or day before, going into these irregular or makeshift camps, right, the reason that you have more than 600 makeshift camps, in idlib you 150 camps, small province that has 1250 camps can some of them have 500 tents. Most of them are makeshift camps that did not have the u. N. Tents cant because the u. N. Has made it very difficult and complicated to get even tents inside syria. It makes a very complicated. The u. N. Is not caught by surprise. Turkey was not caught by surprise because it knew that was happening, and the International Committee was not caught by surprise because they know thats happening. The main reason is because syria is not a priority to all these parties. The millions of syrians are not priority. Turn your microphone on. Can you speak more to that . What was the failure at least when it comes to United Nations to respond in a timely manner . When you have a crisis like this, like whats happening in idlib or syria over the past nine years, or you have millions of people who are affected, a million human beings, these are not cats or dogs from your displaced seven and eight times, you would expect u. N. Observers to be there. There is no u. N. Observers. The worst catastrophe of the 21st century and actually in the 20th century. Since the end of the world war. There is no u. N. Observer in idlib. The u. N. Secretarygeneral should be in idlib right now. He went to the bahamas. He went to mozambique following the last hurricane. He went to libya. Why hes not even contemplating visiting idlib . He has all the resources to be borderr standing on the or going into idlib. And i can guarantee you the syrian children in the camps will protect him. The syrian children in the camps can distinguish the sound of bomb or missile or the sound of shelling. Although they are not able to go to school because most of the schools were destroyed. So why is he not there shaming russia and shaming china for not doing anything about the bombing of civilians in syria . Weve been having 67 hospitals in idlib being bombed by the russian origin and the Syrian Regime and nothing is happen. And nothing has happened. The board of inquiry is making these investigation about bombing a secret. The board of regents itself is trying to keep these results of investigation secret, not making it public because it does not want to kind of shame russia in public because he cares more about reelection than solving the worst crisis that were going through. Tell us some of the things that doctors on the ground in idlib are telling you. They are telling me that they are there for their community and theyre their telling me this is their humanitarian duty. They are telling me their shortage of iv fluids, of antibiotics. By the way, with the last wave of displacement with a regime that controls northwest of aleppo were yet most reciprocal production, you would expect now to have a real short of medication for chronic diseases, diabetes, hypertension, copd, asthma, cancer. And by the way we think in crisis like this that most people will die from bombs or die from infectious diseases, but actually most people die because of chronic diseases, because a heart attack in the middle of the night and you cannot go to the hospital. Because a pregnant lady is bleeding and you can go to the hospital because theres no doctor to treat your child. Who has the flu or has diarrhea. Thats what happened in syria. Now with the lack of shortage of medications for chronic disease and youd expect even more. Doctors also dont have salaries. Salaries are supported by ngos. Ngos have massive less funding because have to deal with shelter and evacuation and have to deal with the heating. Idlib is not tropical area. People think that syria is tropical. It is not. It is very cold the winter is harsh. A child who is four months old froze to death. Layla iman and its very cold. When i was in idlib i had to wear multilayer stews to stay warm just inside the car which is easy. Its very cold and people are going into extreme things to keep their kids warm in the tent. They are burning all of pets. In idlib, you have 14 million olive trees. Its a source of olive oil which is the best thing in the middle east, the best olive oil in syria is in idlib. They are burning shoes. They are burning plastic bags. They are burning garbage to keep their children warm. In spite of that your people who in spite of that, you have people who are freezing to death because it is harsh. Bring it into the tents. Carbon monoxide, absolutely. Charles, lets talk about that border with turkey which turkey shut down several years ago. They already have 3. 5 million refugees in the country. They are not letting anybody across, and at the same time we have erdogan making real noises about the possible of the significant military incursion. Turkish troops already inside syria and to talk about some of the fighting that takes place between the two sides. What is the risk of this escalating significantly between the turks and the syrians and the russians . I think it depends how much of a risk the turks are willing to take. I mean, as they say my perception of this is its an existential issue for erdogan himself and his political future, for the akp parties artys future. P and if they willing to take enough of a risk than yes, that is a risk of escalation. I think what surprised me is i think we all of the turkish russian relationship [inaudible] and its about much more than idlib. The turks and the russians just signed a huge gas pipeline to which neither side wanted to see eroded because of an issue like idlib from which to put in very cold terms isnt necessarily the Biggest Issue on either russia or turkeys agenda when it comes to their bilateral relationship. I have been surprised at how hard russia has played this. My understanding of the situation six months ago is what wouldve already come to a compromise solution whereby the russians and turks would draw a line on the map and say thats it, no movement. It would have been a terrible humanitarian situation but we wouldnt be in place when we would see the light continue to move north like we are now. So i think all of that together does risk escalation. I think turkey has no choice but to gradually escalate, which is undoubtedly what weve seen over the last week or so. They have probably nearly tripled the amount of soldiers just in idlib which is is 3 of syrian territory then all of the United States troops in all eastern syria. Their scale of the deployed military equipment, heavy weapons far outweighs anything the United States has in syria. In 3 of the map. If turkey would want to get serious about this they could do it very swiftly. The key question in peoples minds was or the key assumption would be turkey might do that but we do every everything to avoid a war with russia or a fight with the russians. That calculation has clearly changed with firing shoulder launched missiles at city at syrian aircraft, at russian aircraft yesterday is a big game changer in terms of the calculus that is being placed into all of this. Really i think were getting we are dealing again with an unprecedented situation, the Largest Standing Army in nato with highly sophisticated military equipment stuck in incredibly implicated war zone here facing off against the russians who are playing hardnosed as you could possibly be and begin the Syrian Regime which will never compromise willingly on anything. As they say, given the stakes for turkey in particular, i just find it hard to imagine they would. The question which i cant answer is if and when it does happen, how with the russians respond . They will not want to be humiliated on the world stage. They have a very troublesome ally in the Syrian Regime who consistently has compromise on nothing. We are all hoping for some form of compromise. Its not going to be a good one for the 3. 5 Million People stuck in idlib my only hope is it will be less bad than where we are headed now, which is as bad as soviets you can get. Which is really as bad and as dystopian as you can get. Do you think the u. S. Withdrawal has exacerbated the crisis . I mean, the u. S. Doesnt have a great deal of influence in western syria anymore. It ceded that three years ago when donald trump decided to cut off all support to our four or fiveyearold partners in the eded our credibility and also our influence. Since then the russian government has effectively lock blocked percentile of the northwestern airspace with three small strike exceptions in the last three years my count. And so yes, theres a sense to which there is an understanding, whether its in moscow or ankara damascus or tehran that use is , we, fragile and has a president who doesnt give a you know what about syria. And to think that has emboldened all of those players to play hard against the more coldblooded about the way to deal with these issues, including turkey but quite frankly when it comes to the russians being involved they do control the airspace, the s400 is not to be messed with. That is an added disadvantage for turkey. Turkey has to maneuver a a very complicated environment to do what we are all i think from a perspective hoping it will do, which is force a stalemate or a ceasefire. But the risks are incredible much more significant i think then any geopolitical crisis weve seen in syria over the last nine years. I want to get to questions from the audience. . S there an alternative with the International Community be willing to talk . They dont care what the population prefers. They are definitely not the Jihadist Group or is law must group that is largely the dominant power on the ground. The support was quite limited before and now with military losses and the widespread belief, i think it is a Conspiracy Theory but the widespread belief that they are handing off territory and there is a secret russiaturkey deal. Therefore, even more of the support they once enjoyed. Particularlyy, and even more the radical faction they have lost so much manpower. , it is just astounding. Theyve lost hundreds of fighters over the past and the start of the offensive. They are military weaker i think they are militarily weaker. I think the only alternative right now is turkish control and we see turkey has 16,000 troops inside by the level of military preparedness hts. Definitely out match turkey has no interest in fighting a war with hds. It would be vulnerable to attack and it encourages cooperation. Hds help track down isis cells in idlib. I dont think turkey is interested in launching such a conflict. Therefor, it is there to stay. However, with engagement and pressure, the drug area collapses and should expect largescale massacres. With his leverage, turkey has the ability, not in this case but to significantly instruct or influence what hds chooses to do. Those have knocked out repeatedly most leadership to hold on. They see it as governance of this territory, they abandoned regime change and liberating damascus etc. To them, it is important to cling on to the stereotype. Hds is more than previously to engage with westerners and outsiders. Last week, the director for media insisted on having his name mentioned in an article even after i pulled them and citizenship and previously, they got fired because they mentioned the same article. They are definitely shifting in their conduct and are interested in engagement. At the same time they hold onto power and this support means the population is highly authoritarian conduct. I think i will try to envision the least bad scenario on the table. You start to see something which is some kind of established status quo which is again from a humanitarian perspective. Theres a reason you call it the gaza scenario, not just because you have an area that is densely populated but also because of who will govern it. If govern is the right term. I think turkey knows that if you look at the recent military deployment, clearly trying to draw a red line on the map to indicate that they may be willing to agree on that, leaving the northern half hds controlled. Turkey would have no option but the salvation government to assume the mantle of ruling that territory with or without turkish troops on the ground. My understanding of turkish policy is hds is a threat. They have established themselves as the only organization, right or wrong, capable of using an asset to keep the internal dynamics more stable than their opposition rivals have in the past. I could imagine therefore in the longterm turkey would seek to use its leverage to negotiate a powersharing arrangement. The only other option would be the turkish message would be if you want to be the only ruler, you know what is going to happen. The russians and regime will never accept that as the longterm status quo. How to share power with other civilian and actors under heavy turkish control or else. I dont know if we are going to get there but in all the feasible scenarios, that is the least bad one. The reason hds is an interesting component is they have seen this coming for a long time. They have been engaged in a determined pr effort. They have been reaching out to both of us and many others in hopes of getting westerners, to give them a chance to present this new face they are trying to send to the world for precisely this reason. At this point the International Community will establish ats with this kind of scenario as better than seeing all of northwestern syria concord and smashed into the earth. Whether or not that will work, the International Crisis group visited the leader and visited him for four hours. It is paid off a great deal right now but exists for a reason. Can you try to answer that question . The model will not work. When i spoke with people on the ground, it has power. It lost a lot of credibility because of the advances of the regime. When you talk to syrians in general, they do not think of idlib as an entity. Many syrians dont think syria is one country and there should be a end of this crisis going through the Security Council resolution which is the road to 2254 peace and national reconciliation, and reconstruction and without that, what is working out for the longterm. In 2013, i had a meeting with president obama in the white house outside the massacre. And i told him at that time what was happening in aleppo. And gave him a letter on behalf of of the Syrian American doctor. I believe your legacy will be determined in by what you do in syria. He laughed. He said it will be determined by other things. And what he did not do, the legacy of donald trump would be determined and shaped by what he does and does not do, and the debate around the Democratic Candidates there is no question about syria. And it is important to know who is the president of mexico but also important to know what is idlib. I think other Media Outlets should ask if this presents the worst humanitarian crisis, and candidates should tweet about this. They tweeted about Pete Buttigieg, how come Democratic Candidates for the president , not talking about that. Icu nottingham, elizabeth. I see you nodding, elizabeth. I completely agree. It is the best alternative and it is important to understand this is a better alternative, under trumps watch. And youre absolutely right, by what he has done in syria and Obama Administration officials respect and say it was a mistake to draw a line in the sand. With the use of chemical weapons. Killed over 1400 people not to react in any way. They reflect back and say yes, we were wrong. We should have done something but, you know, mass slaughter happened in our watch. It happened on our watch and they knew it was coming. It was evident the regime would try to conquer it. We issued statements, made some sweets and did not halt this but we dide tweets not hold this when we had the opportunity to do so. Why is it important that the regime complete this takeover . When you look at the kurdish area in the northeast, outside regime control how important side for assad to take it back . In logical terms it is not all that important. From Bashar Alassads point of view in principle terms the most important thing, as the sovereign president of syria i have the right to retake every region and everything he has done in the last nine years is to realize that at any cost to cleanse the country as he has said and that is what we are seeing, the same tactics being developed everywhere else. Hitting the market, hospitals, the schools, no other choice but to continue to flee. The reason it is unprecedented is every other place, no weather where it is or southern syria they always had an out. Always somewhere else to flee to and there is a lockdown border with turkey and that is why it is so unprecedented. More broadly speaking, another relative the conversation, from a Strategic Perspective it is extraordinarily stretched, they have taken huge casualties, 600 fighters died in the last couple months. A high number of Senior Officers more than losing foot soldiers. There is a question how long the regime can sustain the intensity of the campaign, putting aside all of this from the diplomatic equation and putting aside the military dynamic, the regime has manpower for the last year and a half to contain any resource, southern syria was reconciled, meant to be the perfect example of reconciliation in syria from a russian perspective and in 18 months since, the regime has been in capable of restoring any services in the south, crowdsourcing on the internet for funds in their villages and towns. Beyond that, the russians have been capable of deploying over 100 military police and what is the result . 320 attacks in the last year, with instability in the next year or two and only because the regime doesnt have the capacity to rule over the territories and control the government territory it is retaking and to expand these resources for a tiny 3 of the map in a situation where at great expense it is asked extremely stupid but it tells you about the regimes mentality. It doesnt tell you about the face of people that reassert control over. Reasserting control on the map, and there was nothing you could do about that. That is driving it. The thinking of the regime, being an older classmate, a way of understanding his thinking, he mentioned a few things. He is a doctor. He says there are millions of germs that need to be cleansed. When we are talking 6. 5 million refugees, these are people they need to be cleansed and depopulated. Many of the areas that qualify with control of the regime, people who were displaced from them were not allowed to go back. Only a few people this was strategic and tactical to an area that is considered an antagonist to the regime, even before Bashar Alassad has taken revenge. He says if you have blood on his hands doesnt mean the murderer, an area that is part of the disease that is infected. That is how he justifies rings. A couple of days ago, he made a speech in which he declared victory because he pledged the military as part of syria so this will continue unless he is pressured to accept certain terms. One of the major debates is what to do with foreign fighters. That really came up when the first turkish incursion happened in northeastern syria with the talk about people being held by the kurds. I want to get to another audience question, broadly speaking what treatment do you propose for the thousands who were fighting broadly in the northern part of syria . Distinguishant to between the northeast and northwest. In the northeast they are also, their relatives, most in the camp, they have the responsibility to repatriate individuals, the majority our children. The overwhelming majority of them are children. With regards to the men, there is a proposal by the administration to put them on trial in the northeast and they will serve their sentence in the west, legally Tricky Solutions because many do not have the largest for a long time because there is no evidence of their crimes and difficult to collect. With regards to the situation in the northeast there are foreign fighters, a large contingent are muslim from china. We know what happens to muslims. Basically mass execution in camp. The number operating quite small. Because we saw the major split that occurs in the islamic state, isis basically saw most foreigners join isis, hds largely being syria. There are some more fighters there. Without any foreign soil, the small number that are perceived to be a threat have been assassinated by missiles. I think this is probably the way to go. Can be assassinated but overall the foreign fighters who are there, are small and decreasing rapidly. These units, these factions, there has been concentration in the latest offense of. Earlier this week an entire is back is back was destroyed. If they start watching something else, the us comes in. Assuming they that seems to be the solution. You shouldnt let hundreds of foreign fighters, maybe thousands but in the low thousands from the fact that there are 3 million civilians there, should not pay the price for having them come into the area by getting bombed and displaced. I want to mention something about these questions. I want to mention something about these questions. They are very important but when the media focuses on these issues, the fact that you have hundreds of terrorists in some areas and people justify in their minds intentionally or unintentionally to let the other 3. 5 million be exterminated. An unconscious thing because it is the war against terrorism. When you focus on the few and forget 3. 5 Million People, that is what people think been in place, you have a president of the United Nations, we look at it logically, defending the human rights of these people in places that we do the refugees in the same way. I had a meeting with the Russian Ambassador a couple years ago, i was showing him pictures of the woman, wore conservative dressing and he jobs and had shown him pictures and he looked at pictures of the woman and said these are isis. In their mind and everyone in aleppo is isis but they dont see, the new york times, they see that so that is their formation. If i may, to reiterate that, extremely important point. Just yesterday a spokesman for Operation Inherent resolve, the us coalition to fight isis, interview with sky news in which he parroted the assad regimes talking points. He was asked by the interviewer why it is important and his answer was if it is controlled by terrorists, what we are seeing now, mass civilian slaughter is because terrorists idlib. It lip as long as terrorists continue to control, we will see human suffering and humanitarian crisis. That is the perfect encapsulation of how to get the 3. 5 Million People and think only of the 300 or 400 very easy to deal with in comparison. There is clearly a division but the fact that a spokesman want to be coached before hand in how to deal with an interview said something you literally could have copied and pasted from syrian state media is a damaging thing. It is covered all across russian and uranium and ukrainian media that a u. S. Spokesperson justified the continued campaign. There has to be context and broader understanding. I am a ct guy at heart and my gut tells me to look at the bad guys, but having followed syria for nine years i know full well the situation is more complicated and the priorities are totally different. Conducting a Campaign Like this, ironically, will strengthen the extremist ideologue extremist ideology. This gives a new briefing force for the extremist ideology that has always said the world will give up on you, we are your only protector, the west doesnt care about your lives and eventually this eventuality will happen. To speak in that way and see this carryon is as bad as we could be in terms of pr, policy, strategy, etc. Hts, for all their faults, are focusing a situation in which the regime and russia take over. They will kill a lot of acs fighters and civilians but some of them will survive and will transform from an entity which is in charge of governing its territory, quite a problematic manner but governing the territory and fixing roads, trying to provide the needs of millions of people they will have none of those responsible responsibilities. Even from a counterterrorism perspective this kind of incursion to areas controlled by hds which wants to be left alone. There was a ceasefire prior to the start of this offensive. New operations on the line that were often in response to the regime. If left alone they will not launch attacks whereas going in and destroying everything and killing civilians and distributing them are cross syria into turkey, counterterrorism perspective does not make sense. I think we need to start wrapping up. Well, then. I want to follow up on the us perspective given where we are in washington and what you were saying about Pete Buttigieg being the only one talking about this, foreignpolicy was not something that was raised at all. Let alone syria specifically. James jeffries, former ambassador, special representative for syria. To what extent do you think he has a loud voice in this administration . To what extent do you think the issue is breaking through to the highest level . I have Great Respect for ambassador jeffrey. He has put more energy into this role than any of his predecessors have for the last five years. A clear determination to uphold the principles the us embraced very early on. He has i dont want to speak for him but he has one big challenge which is the president of the United States doesnt really have a Foreign Policy and doesnt really know syria exists unless he potentially sees it on fox news in the morning. What we have seen primarily since ambassador jeffrey took on his role, he has done the right things, put energy into us policy on syria and 2 or 3 times, destroyed all the progress he made diplomatically or militarily and then jim has had to start again. Ambassador jeffrey traveled to ankara with the support of mike pompeo. He did in my view all of the right things which was to let nato support turkey, to encourage turkey to assert itself more strongly and say you have our support as the United States and nato and then that night, this is the most telling thing, the National Security adviser went on tv and said the United States is not going to do anything about it. We dont have any resources to do this, pulling the rug from under ambassador jeffriess feet as he was still in and cara as he was still in ingres ankara trying to negotiate to encourage them to do more and that continues to be the problem obama and his administration, there was a process, took the wrong judgments. This administration, there is no process, no structure. The state department has a good team, highly qualified team that knows the issue but they do not have the backing of the white house and that is a real shame because it has set back what has been some progress in the last three years over and over and over again. The best analysis which i agree with is the fact that even though i disagree with many aspects of the policy of donald trump in syria, particularly closing our border, the Syrian Refugees which i believe is shameful that we tolerated it in the muslim ban in the last year we had only a handful of Syrian Refugees compared to 10,000 in 2015, or 2016 and this is something that has an effect on the country, all of our values and this is something that we have to reflect on as a country. Valuesgainst all of our that our country is based on. We are a country based on values and principles that should not be difference whether we have donald trump as president or president obama as a president but donald trump did a few things supported by the public and the United States whether democrat or republican. Withhe put a red line on the use of chemical weapons, punish the regime for its views like that is something people supported. Talking about children suffocated in the chemical weapon attack he said these are beautiful children, he cares about syrian children. Syrian children are freezing to death. There might be a disconnect between the state department trying to do the same thing and donald trump, for those ears of the years President Trump show him the , pictures of syrian children freezing to death and tell him do something to prove you have the upper hand in syria. Right now cnn broke the news about russia trying to interfere with our election in 2020 supporting donald trump and he disagrees publicly on this issue. Let us prove that we have the upper hand in the war but Vladimir Putin to the war and donald trump can make a difference in syria and prove he has the upper hand. If we are talking about the dynamics of the Trump Administration the top middle east official on the National Security council was removed and moved over to do energy so there is no senior director. There is no senior director on the middle east in the white house. Why dont we finish where we started on the humanitarian crisis. If i could ask each of you if there is a singular thing that the us and International Community can do to alleviate the suffering of 1 Million People who have been displaced and many more, what would it be . We can talk about money. Money helps. President obama used to pledge millions of dollars to deal with the Syrian Crisis and other countries because the leader of certain moral things including humanitarian assistance in syria or other places, donald trump pledged supporting 900,000 people in syria and other countries especially in the region that he is friends with in saudi arabia and kuwait, supporting northwest syria a few months ago. They could follow his lead, that is the first thing but more important than this, our mandate is to care about syria not because they are special but because they are like us and a dream like us. I mentioned the story they wanted to be doctors, architects and we can give them the chance to be doctors and architects in syria if we care about them like we care about our children. I think money is needed and will help them. But the Current Situation is untenable and it is becoming a whole defense for people who are not able to finance smuggling into turkey or smuggle themselves into turkey or they are too scared to live in the regime control and that is the overwhelming majority of the population. This is a situation that cannot continue to exist. Basically a situation that is way worse in terms of the humanitarian implications of it. The First Priority is it is more important than money so people stop seeing that people are able to return to their homes. Longterm is not a solution and there are people who live in tents. This is not something that we should accept for this people. At the least the current line of the conflict needs to destabilize and put in place and have the ability to threaten regime in russia if they continue carry out strikes, in such a scenario it is not required boots on the ground or any significant intervention. A ceasefire, turkey will have the leverage to get troops on the ground. At least along the current time and allow people to return to their homes and towns that are not in regime control but are empty. All these towns are empty because the publishing except regimes, they give them the opportunity to kill them in their homes. They fled already. People will be able to return and live in their homes and work their fields and sustains themselves without having to defend on an international basis and in the long run we need a solution for syria. To return to their homes you mentioned the children from this area is under regime control. They do not feel safe to return. They need to change their inavior that allows millions idlib who are not from area, and refugees outside the country to return and live in safety. Snowfallr year we have on syrian refugee camps in lebanon. People live in tents year after year covered in snow and freezing to death. They will not return to live under regime control, they know they will be arrested and tortured. This needs to change so people are able to return home. Living forever in tents is not a solution. One point about focusing on syria and paying attention, we blame our policymakers but forget we are a society of congregations,nd we do not Pay Attention to syria the way we dealt with bosnia or rwanda or south africa or other crises like this. We have to reflect on this issue. A couple years ago an article was written why syria needs an earthquake. He said in one week after the earthquake in haiti they received more donations. We have a responsibility to talk about syria, weather and the jellicos, catholics evangelicals, catholics. Organizations talk about the Syrian Crisis for the first time in the last seven years. Congress has a responsibility. The president tweeted about idlib. About syria and what is happening in syria. We have a history in the congress were you have a senator from wisconsin who every day in the morning went to the floor and spoke about genocide for 11 years. 250 speeches about the genocide. Thatne in congress can do and has the responsibility to push President Trump to do something with syria. And of course the media, we are a country of people. What is happening is a reflection of the apathy of the people in the United States, whether faith leaders, congregations, the media, organizations and so forth. We have to reflect on that and change that. I will be quick because we are short on time. We have a long list of recommendations, i agree with all of them. Trumpited states under more so under obama has drawn a redline in the sand in terms of the use of chemical weapons. If you think about that, we have made a statement if any chemical weapons used, even if it kills conducton, we will military strikes or some form of action. Then you compare it to the scale in idlib that makes our policies look utterly absurd. The u. S. Needs to get its moral compass right, and its perspective on what we care about and why. And get out of this convenient political equation where by a rare use of chemical weapons is the only thing that will make us care or act in syria. We need to get over this we careness idea where about things inside her homeland and the only thing that matters. You listen to the democrats, forever warders, bring the , the trend ishome we do not care about the rest of the world the matter how bad it is. That is not true. We are not talking about 300,000 and regimeyria change, but we are talking about using the fact the United States is the most powerful country by a country mile to generate a Diplomatic Coalition that puts unprecedented pressure on the russians, within the you when to stop committing within the to stop committing war crimes. At minimum use diplomacy. When we have had earthquakes or tsunamis or natural disasters, has a humanitarian crisis response. The world mobilizes and away we rarely see in other conditions. Why isnt the world doing that now . We do not have to go through the u. S. The United States and a coalition of the willing could be flying supplies into turkey and trucking them over a turkish controlled border crossing. But we are not. Why do we do it with an earthquake or tsunami but not when a Million People or two Million People are stuck in tents and open fields in the idlib winter. Important questions and thoughts, and hopefully we will see action soon on all of this. Thank you so much for coming. [applause] journals washington live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. This morning, the role of Health Care Policy in campaign 2020 with the american enterprise, and the Economic Policy institute. The 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses with Associated Press political reporter michelle price. Watch washington journal live at 7 00 a. M. This morning. Join the discussion. On q a,night notable speakers of the house. We have come a long day from the days of sam rayburn and Dwight Eisenhower where you Work Together even if you are in separate institutions, and this idea the speaker should be deferential to the president. That is not what we are seeing now. There is a way that is a sign of healthy vigorous artisan differences, if you disagree you should not be afraid to say so. What troubles me, there are certain ways in which our elected officials, we expect to share some common agreement on issues, or the sense we have important roles to play, institutional roles that should rise above policy differences. Watch sunday night at 8 00 p. M. Eastern on cspans q a. Cspan, your unfiltered view of government created by cable in 1979 and brought to you today by your television provider. The secretaries of the army, navy and air force talked about the president s 2021 Defense Budget and the pentagons acquisition process. From the center for and international studies, this is about an hour