The panel covers sanctions against venezuela, russian involvement, and the future of democracy there. Posted by the interamerican dialogue, this is hosted by the interamerican dialogue, this is 90 minutes. [indistinct conversations] good afternoon, everybody. Good afternoon. I am michael shifter, the president of interamerican dialogue, and i want to welcome everybody here and thank you for coming. Week ago today, juan guaido returned to venezuela after an International Trip where he shored up support from europe, canada, and the United States, first in miami, then in washington, d. C. He met with the president , speaker of the house, state of the union, he received a standing ovation, and showed us all that bipartisanship is still actually possible. But the future is far from certain. The president of the National Assembly was recognized as interim president by some 60 governments. The maduro regime seems entrenched. The unprecedented humanitarian crisis persists, and guaido faces tough challenges, mobilizing his supporters, at the same time he deals with repressive tactics and an unrelenting effort by maduro to weaken his leadership. Guaidost detention of uncle is just the latest example. This afternoon, we will discuss what comes next for guaido and what comes next for venezuela as the country pursues a path forward to achieve a democratic transition and finally bring this tragedy, this nightmare, to an end. We are pleased to lodge a dialogue report that focuses precisely on these issues, the long road supporting venezuelans to an uncertain future. This is the third report of the venezuelan working group, the Dialogue Initiative to discuss different aspects of this profound crisis over an 18month period. The group had no illusions from the outset at resolving the residing thethat crisis would be quick or easy. Its focus is not on the day after but applying the effort to a search or Actionable Solutions for the here and now. The group of 15 distinguished and influential leaders and experts from 11 countries in the americas is chaired by president laura chinchilla. We are thrilled she is able to join us today for the launch and for this session. And also ambassador to donna reinecke. Think everyone in the working group for their invaluable contributions. I want to thank especially michael, larry, who has superbly who hasel camilleri, superbly initiated the launching group. He has initiated the peter bell dynamic rule of law program and also has another innovative project at dialogue that is of corruptioneds to help relieve the humanitarian crisis. In addition to michael, we are very fortunate to have two extraordinary panelists, who will engage with us. Of course,hinchilla, ofyou know, is president costa rica from 2010 to 2014. She is the first woman president of costa rica. She is the cochair of the working group and also is cochair of the interamerican dialogue, which means she is my boss. [laughter] mr. Shifter president chinchilla, before being president , she teaches at georgetown, and she has been a champion of democracy throughout the region and indeed the world. Since we already have two michaels on this panel, we were looking for a gale miguel for regional balance, and only when we could find was a member of the venezuelan National Assembly, first elected in 2010 when he was 21, and again in 2015. He is currently in exile and serves as commissioner for the guaido government. He represents where i am sure he would rather be today than dewpoint circle. I will be turning it over to michael to present the most important point. I want to thank the ford foundation, the Society Foundation for the partnership and collaboration in this effort. So again, thanks,yall, for coming. We will engage in conversation later, but first, i want to turn to michael to get us started. Mr. Camilleri thanks, michael. Thanks, everyone, to everyone for being here. Let me reiterate mikes thanks to everyone in the working group who has given their insight. Thanks to president chinchilla. Thank you for being my boss boss, and it is a real privilege to working with you and seeing firsthand your commitment to democracy. It is ael mentioned, tough one because venezuela finds itself at a difficult juncture. We convened almost exactly a year ago in bogota with the working group. There was a time when great expectations, we were assertive marveling we were sort of marveling at the young, dynamic leader of juan guaido, wondering what would happen on february 23. I think it is safe to say that is probably a high point and things since then have not gone as many of us have hoped, certainly probably safe to say not gone as juan guaido himself would have hoped. That is not to say all is lost. I think that events of the last two weeks, guaidos actions on january 5, his Successful International tour, i think confirm our inclination that he is a formidable leader, a really impressive figure, and that he and the opposition and the allies in the International Community have managed to do a lot to bring additional pressure against the maduro regime, but lets be honest, the fact is, Maduro Maduro is still insurance in caracas. He is stronger today than he was six or 12 months ago. So the challenge of the venezuela working group, when we met in december, was to really take stock of this sobering withoutand analyze succumbing to fatalism or defeatism. We wrestled hard with the last 12 month, the failure of april 30, the failure of talks, the growing of russia, the unintended consequences of sanctions, and of course the continuing and worsening humanitarian and displacement crisis. Reveal right up front here that we did not come up with a silver bullet. We dont intend to have a magic solution to this sobering reality, but we did develop a framework for future action, and that is what you will see reflected in the report. It is a framework for the International Community to engage with the goal of inimately advancing venezuela, and it is organized around four themes, which i will briefly introduce here, and i hope we will have a chance to come back to them in the course of a conversation, and i hope we will have time to read the. The workingeme is Group Continues to believe that a negotiated pathway to Credible Elections is the most viable group out of venezuelas crisis there is just one problem nicolas maduro, and perhaps some of his friends. The report argued that sustained multilateral pressure in the form of target sanctions come targeted sanctions will be needed to generate the leverage for political solutions, and it also examined how some of the unintended consequences of sanctions could be mitigated. Obviously today, there was a develop in on this front, but i am sure we will have a chance to discuss. The second theme is new voices and sustained conversation. The working group was encouraged by the resilience of democratic culture in venezuela, encouraged by the leadership of people like mcgill pizarro, but also those miguel pizarro, but also those in venezuela, willing to acknowledge that difficult compromises will be needed to change their countrys trajectory, so the report calls for fighting to preserve the little democratic space that exists in the country. The standing of venezuelas future. This refers to of course the 2019 norwaysponsored negotiations, which were the most serious, the most structured, and the most productive of any negotiations that have taken place with maduro, and yet they ultimately failed, just like the ones that preceded them. The report concludes that the time and circumstances are not right at the present to return to the negotiating table, but if and when that time comes, and we very much hope it does, it will be crucial to salvage the things that worked in oslo as well as to correct the things that did not work. The final theme is venezuelans first. The report is clearite about the fact that the complex humanitarian emergency in venezuela will not end until the maduro dictatorship is gone from power. The report is also clear right about the fact that none of us predict exactly when that political transition will happen. In the meantime, millions of people, perhaps tens of millions of people, need help, and the working group argued that the political impact in caracas should not and paralyze these efforts but in view with greater urgency the efforts to address Human Rights Watch violations, address the Human Rights Watch in the, and address the displacement crisis from venezuela. So again, thank you for the chance to present the report. I hope you all have a chance to read it, share it, comment on it, and i look forward to the discussion with this distinguished panel. Mr. Shifter thank you, michael, that was terrific, and we will get back to a lot of these points, as you mention, that go to the heart of the challenge. Lets start, perhaps, by talking pizarro,ing mr. President guaido came back after a successful tour. Momentum, has some at least internationally. How do you think he is going to leverage that momentum at home . Assess theyou situation today in venezuela, the government and the opposition . Mr. Pizarro thank you. It is easy, because both of you are named michael, so i can say only one. Thank you, michael and, banks, president , and thanks interamerican dialogue for hosting this thanks,u, michael, and president , and thanks, interamerican dialogue, for hosting this. He needs the support of the International Community. Why is that important . Mainly for two reasons. For venezuelans struggling inside of the country, we are resisting a guess a dictatorship who does not have barely any access to free media, to see what is actually going on around the world, seeing their leader being in the same place as macron, as merkel, as president dialogue,aking in receiving the way guaido is being received is important for the ones who are inside, and it is important because that has a clear message we are not alone. And that is the strength we need to fight against a dictatorship inside. Second, we understand really well, michael, there is no way out of the turtle situation without internal pressure also. This is to build Common Ground between old alliances and the International Community, trying to bring the european position closer to the position in latin america, have this common understanding that without International Pressure, it is impossible to achieve a real election, and now to leverage that, what you need is to increase what is inside, to increase and go deep in the grassroots, to start to fight against the multiple ways of social control the regime has, and try to have the same sense of urgency we had beginning this year, because when we spoke about venezuela in the last threemonth of last year, most of the conversation was really exhausting. A lot of people in the International Community were starting to see venezuela as an oxymoron without any way out possible. The conversation was taking in doubt the level of leadership of juan guaido, plus arguing about if the National Assembly and this Political Movement has what it needs to get over maduro, and i think this can have a new conversation with it. Now it is really clear that the International Community supports the transition, supports guaido s leadership, and what we have to do to leverage that is increase double pressure, and it is with this bravery that ms. Venezuelans show right now. Mr. Shifter thank you. President and chia, you president chinchilla, you followed the situation in venezuela very closely for a long time, including as cochair of this working group. As michael mentioned, this report is pretty sobering about the state of play. What is your view and perspective about how close venezuela is today to moving forward toward a democrat transition . How do you see that situation moving towards what we all want . Thank you very much, and thank you for coming today. Thank you, miguel, for joining us. When we are presenting a new report on this very complex issue about venezuela and our region, let me tell you all that i feel very important today, because i am the boss of many people. [laughter] ms. Chinchilla at least i know i am the boss of two mikes. There is one which is the good one, the other one is the bad one. You will decide which is which. [laughter] well, thankla but, you again, also, to all the people who have been part of this effort. In answering that question, mike, is something very complex. The venezuelan issue is a multifaceted problem, and trying to guess when we will be able to democraticd to the transition in venezuela is something very risky to say. Currently, that is why we in the report say that, and i quote, the timing of our return to democracy in venezuela is still uncertain. That we knowis that at least certain conditions if we want to go beyond the current situation, that forention our report, but there are some conditions that we think are want to move if we forward. Do with what miguel already said, it has to do with the International Community. It is very hard to imagine any change in venezuela if it is not with the support of the international front. Sense, of course we will hear more about the guaido we are expecting the International Support to go beyond the former recognition of guaido formal recognition of guaido as the legitimate president of venezuela. Of course, the press conferences needery important, but we much, much more than that. And so, according to our move to awe have to more strategic, effective report we need an International Community aligned with the same kind of strategic strategy and also with not much differences concerning the tactics. In that sense, we need to emphasize about the importance of the sanctions, sanctions are necessary. Without sanctions, the regime would never sit at the table for any kind of negotiation, and that means, of course, which is something that we have disclosed about also the humanitarian , tos of impact that we have continue applying the more Central Economic sanctions, and at the same time, the targeted personal sanctions. Band, thatthe oil means the visa band, all kinds of sanctions. Now we have to recognize that we have more nations applying the kind of sanctions, but we still have the bad guys in venezuela, they still have the way out of the sanctions that they already have in some countries. Necessary tois think about some kind of able,ive, so they can be if they come again, look for the opportunity, you know, to negotiate an institutional transition to democracy, they will need to put some kind of sentence on the table, so some of the political and military defeatingn consider that regime, and that does not happen until up to now. It is also necessary to bring some other to any kind of report. Military inside ,enezuela and other countries such as russia and cuba. And finally and that is something that it was very stage of thet this work we have done for the last realizeds that we have that beyond the political and parties,al political there are now more and more kind of social actors coming from society. Within that is an opportunity to also bring them into the cause. So giving them more protagonist, because it a buoy, is also important to understand that although guaido has tried to not to lose the support of , his maincal parties strength continues to be the civil society. That theres new voices that can be incorporated into the processes, and they more strength, more, in certain ways, energy to what is happening inside venezuela. So, mike, again, it is very hard to say when, but at least we are trying to suggest some additional conditions that would facilitate the transition to democracy in venezuela. Mr. Shifter thank you. Thank you, president chinchilla. I have a question for the good mike. [laughter] mr. Shifter following up on months think in our 18 of deliberations with this group , a lot changed over the course of that period. Perhaps one of the most significant changes, if not the most significant change, is the role of russia playing in venezuela, which was not as prominent when we started this working group, as it seems to be today, and i was wondering if you were sort of in your role, former role at the state department or the white house, the sanctions that were , had you seeny then, how would you be thinking more broadly about increasing deeper involvement of russia in venezuela . Some of theld be options that you would see, and how would you evaluate the announcement that was made today . I think i will start with the second piece. Russia is clearly a player. Anyone can operate that russia is now going to have to be a part of that, so one of the things we talk about in the report is thinking about what a future dialogue process might look like, taking greater account of the interest of Major International players and bringing those players closer to the table, even if that adds complexity, it will be necessary for them not to spoil any agreement that might be might be outlined in the course of a negotiation. And russia clearly is now one of those players, which may not have been the case, as you said, michael, 18 months ago. You know, the sanctions announced today on the kind of trading arm in some ways are very logical extension of this maximum pressure strategy, one that really began in earnest with the sanctions last january. The irony, and some ways, is that it was those sanctions that gave russia its current opening. Oil industry was completely integrated with the United States for many, many years, and when the sanctions essentially cut off that relationship, it created an opening that russia has been very astute and very strategic in exploiting, to the poinnt wh ere they are now running Something Like 70 of Venezuelan Oil. If your strategy is to try to strengthen the oil sector and a asphyxiate the strem, it is logical to take the next step to align that, but the strategic opportunity for russia was in some ways created by the Oil Sanctions in the first place. Mr. Shifter thank you. Miguel, first, i would like to comment on the sanctions announced today, your broadly, a, but more crucial question, the maduro regime seems to have a strategy, and that is go to the parliamentary elections at the end of this year, and the big question, of course, that people ask frequently is how will the opposition respond . Will it participate, not participate in these elections . And there are comments about the divisions in the opposition, are in any always opposition. This is not the first on there are divisions in opposition. But sometimes divisions make Going Forward harder and sometimes more manageable. If you could share with us your sense of how you are seeing these elections not if you could tell me if they will participate or not participate, because that is not the point, but what is the strategy of adopting as it views this years elections, and how unified is the opposition to it . Mr. Pizarro thank you, michael. It is not aezuela, th tactical issue, it is a strategic issue, so no matter itt guaido we have to do together, and we have to do it as unified as we can. Sometimes the first instance in a Democratic Alliance is more about tactics, because all of the people inside of the country have come around, and we have to have a political change in venezuela. Reason forhe real declaring the emergency and the economical breakdown in venezuela. Formed a complete, deeper of the institution and the way breakdown in venezuela, we need a complete and deep reform of the we itution and the way nderstand the power ultimately in venezuela, because in the 20 years of the revolutionary rocess between chavez and maduro a new generation of political and social actors have rights. Its not only the understanding of what were the bring him into power in 1998, its also the reasons in 20 years of power in. This last year its real easy to understand. Of the army, trol s the use of the barrel man tearians and the gangs but it wasnt like that all the time. If people actually vote in 1998 elect a different kind of leadership in venezuela and that years ofsequence of 40 that understanding of how democracy works. Years, living 60 crises, and the last two years of dictatorship, cold, most, i think e in the most abusive way, is that easy to understand you need more than an election to change whats happening in venezuela. Dates. Ot only about the its not only about the conditions. Its what we want to achieve venezuela. Ction in we want a peaceful way out, a democratic institution, and for its more than reasonable that the best final chapter for hat movie is the people being able to vote to decide their future. To what we have to do arrive to that point, first, we ave to understand the new ground we have in venezuela. This venezuela is not the 2016 or 2015 when it was elected to the National Assembly. Matter of ly a winning or going to the voting no to vote because thats longer the kind of fight we have in the country. 2015 elections, they understand how to treat the of any nd take control kind of election so far us being art of an election has certain conditions. First, there is no election ossible in venezuela without the new elector counsel because you can go unsel, and vote but you will not decide. Doesnt count. Its what those guys decide at the end. Need important reforms in the Justice System what happened to us. We won the National Assembly in starting in 2016, the supreme tence of the court was to get rid of the confidence for the national aseem assemb assembly. You have need to have the Network Power in your hands. Third, whats the real solution venezuela . By the stand constitution, this year is a from an entire byelection. Hey are going to join an assembly and onal election al election all the conditions, we understand and know the moment election is e an the last day of guaido and their in power. The venezuelans, not only inside another untry, thats now were tant, with five Million PeoplePolitical Rights that right now doesnt have any chance to be election. N an that has to be part of important discussion, but when people imes try to speak about venezuela, the institution is not unified. Always, no matter what happens. Maybe the people dont have the its always but easy to repeat. The opposition is not unified. You something. January 5, the army took control of the barrel man tearian palace. Hey took control of their assembly. Was it the army who decided to ote, or the corruption trying to bribe or to scare parliamentarians, to make them way and with all that pressure. Elected, we were 112 parliamentarians. Detentions, 32of sentences against members of the assembly, bribery, 100 members of the National Assembly reelect juan guaido, from different parties, from movements, minorities, and majorities, all of them risking their lives, risking everything to elect one in the National Assembly but only a symptom of much bigger. In venezuela we understood the time for internal difference is after guaido went to power but while were living dictatorship there isnt time to push an elbow or to try most famous the guy or who has more tweets or likes in the social media a matter of is not public opinion. All the country can love us, and out that t have a way doesnt matter at all, because a matter of public opinion. Economic cash flow. With russia, i conclude. Its a clear message not only russians, for the cubans, for turkey, for the holders, there is no way out. The pressure will continue and ceased, and what were its a is a must different approach for the venezuela situation. The sanctions always have this message. Has not to be forever. This has made it to make a behavior, and what were expecting for those guys who thought that they were untouchable because the problem as only against maduro, everyone in the world who supports the regime, in the logistical way, army, or those kind of supports, inside, to keep the domination under the population, or to provide them fresh money and cash flow to buy loyalties, will have International Community and will the pressure of the war against them. Because its not only usa. European union. And weso the lima group, have to get over the cold war that they are trying to build. This is not russia against venezuela. Way before begins russia and venezuela and usa start to be part of the picture, and we cannot summarize this problem only as a problem between usa russia because its deeper the mother d while regime is doing to the region with the ecological destruction and the the river mining destruction with the efugee situation in all the countries in the neighborhood, those supporting and funding a huge groups is part of red for the whole union, and we out. A peaceful way the only way to do it is with olitical pressure and flexibility and understanding of the political actors inside, that there is no happy ending to this. We have to understand also this for ss means forgiveness guys. F those this process means that this elite, if we can say that, have to pay some costs. It. Were able to pay 20 years is more than enough to understand that its no matter opinion. C we have to do what we have to do. Even if that means that we have to shake hands with some guys dont want. Thank you. Thank you, miguel. Michael shifter picking up on your point about the almost five million venezuelans who fled the ountry mainly to other countries in south america but also the caribbean and mexico Central America and the states, and vast stretches of land have become organized crime nd guerrilla groups, president chinchilla, how worried are you about the impact of venezuela on he stability of the region and short of a democratic transition because i think all of us will saying this may take some time. Are there steps that can be aken to support the countries affected . Ost yes. A certainly we say in the venezuela is the hemisphere issue of our time. Destabilizing events, because of it has from view, litical point of concerning humanitarian issues also because of the criminal dimension of the problem so let just double up on each of them. A n i say that it is destabilizing issue from the geopolitical points of views, 20 years, as explaining [inaudible] effect, so gious there is now with nicaragua, have one out to and well have probably more. It doesnt matter if its from left. Ght or the t can have a totalitarian, a dictatorship regime like that with no consequences. Geopolitical point of venz is playing a estabilizing role along with russia and cuba. Hey are not responsible for most of the crisis that we last year. They took the opportunity to maximize the effects of those you are thed social miles. There is a recent article new york y the times presented some sources coming from the department of tate, in which they analyzed the use of social media to negative effects of the crisis in those countries. So there is a kind of political of abilizing effect venezuela in our region. Ut if we analyze the humanitarian impact, its really we have never seen. Were experiencing the largest displacement of people n the history of western hemisphere. It is estimated that by the end we could reach 6. 5 Million People, along with the have, 1. 5 on that we million more people. What the warnalyze war isg about these, the doing just a few. Compare, for example, of resources the International Community has in syria, its huge in favor of syria and very venezuela. Ged for of course, we have to recognize positive initiatives like the one that has been for usa i. D. , they are many nearbytives but most re regional, supported by neighboring countries but much coming from the International Community. Finally, we also have to mention the destabilizing factor relating to the organized crime. Becoming a criminal economy. Of the resilience months. The last the economy is growing. More money into the venezuelan conomy but most of the based are being venezuela will have a very huge a very high cost. But only bordering countries, for countries in the caribbean and in central very fragile, re if flows of he Illegal Immigrants but also to he problem of organized crime, so in short, venezuela is the menace that we have in our hemisphere today. Michael shifter thank you, president chan chill la. The el, youve worked with u. S. Government on policy in latin america. You know better that domestic politics tends to creep in for decisions and discussions internally. I was wondering if you can comment at all to what extent do you think the current president ial campaign and specially the importance of florida, where most of the diaspora isnd cuban concentrated, is playing a role n this in terms of weighing ecisions, and also, about this bipartisanship that we saw in stateoftheunion address for guaido, next january, well either have President Trump or well second term have somebody else as a new president. Expect under different scenarios of what regarding november 3 venezuela policy . Michael camilleri well, the think, f the union, i showed us that clearly venezuela is a salient domestic issue narrow segment of the u. S. Population but that located inpens to be very strategic state of florida, so President Trumps decision to invite president in the nd introduce him fashion that he did clearly was imed at catering to that audience. I think to guaidos credit, and his was mentioned, he met with Speaker Pelosi and made an effort to be bipartisan about time in washington and also did in gement that he florida. But, you know, i think the akeaway from a policy perspective is that were likely to see more of the game this trump om the administration. Doubling down on a maximum incrementallyegy, kind of expanding that policy as e saw with the sanctions, is the likely course of events. Topart because it sells well diaspora of hardline base in florida. What might happen if a democrat is elected, first, if he can wait out trump and the Democratic Administration would bring significant changes to venezuela policy, i think hes mistaken. I think, you know, while there variation among the democratic candidates, they are this guy clear that is a thug. That supporting democratic in venezuela and human rights is a priority. Under any illusions about the nature of the regime caracas. If maduro is hoping for a soft ouch from a future Democratic Administration i think thats a mistake. Actically we could see some adjustments. I think you would certainly see a greater openness to a solution. I think you may see a rethink on Something Like the Oil Sanctions, given the evidence of n exacerbating effect on the humanitarian situation. Perhaps Something Like a oil program which has been muted, so those tactical questions, certainly on temporary protected status for venezuela which the trump refused thus has far to put into place. Most democrats seem to be in favor of. I se are issues on which could see a departure from the terms policy but not in of the way that the situation at large is viewed from washington. Great. Thank you. Michael shifter im going to deputy pizarro one question, to get your question because the most common uestion at least thats posed to me is how do you explain aduros resilience despite the disaster of the country . There are a lot of factors cited. Clearly repression and intimidation and corruption, and external support from russia, china, cuba, turkey, and others. And i wantmentioned, you to talk about this a little of ideology. There was a body in the started by chavez, he still has of 0 support favor in polls in venezuela. I want you to give me your what extent, aybe not as much weight as other factors but how ideology is still relevant in the current political situation in venezuela. The second question is, there is taken denicy here and elsewhere labels, to characterize there is and here talk of calling venezuela a a criminal state, and i want to know if you think of those labels or another abel is accurate, and are they useful . Because thats the kind of terms people are talking in, and i would like to get your that. N mr. Pizarro thank you, michael. The labors always have a huge influence. You characterize your the way you have to fight it. If the label used, that you use, way you fight against it. If you say thats terror reason your only way to fight t is with the tools you fight against those kind of guys but if we understand what you have front is not a monolith cal maduro is not the same as the army and the army is sami, you have a different tactical understanding of how to fight against them. Our message has always been, first, encouraging the army to because weerent role understand whats happening inside the army. High ranking officers the middle ranks of the army ave families live early in poverty, when people only have a luck, to eat once, with twice a day. I read an article in the new couple of weeks ago speaking about the evolution f the venezuelan economy because now part of the population has access to dollars. Thats the minority of the population. The not even 1 of the population access to the of dollars in that amount, to have that kind of life. If you understand that caracas is a bubble where you electricity, er, and dollars, its a different of life in the countryside and the country. They have right now is money. The ideological part of the is absolutely dead in the way to say it because what revolution killing the population, to buy loyalty in the army, what kind revolution uses the poor people to have control over them and to say, if you raise your you go to the street and demonstrate, your kids and your not going to eat today. I dont see, well, maybe the fascists, maybe thats the only kind of ideology that can onlye t that but the ideological attach they have inside is the money. He old school fight in venezuela, one we had in 1998, i as only 10 years old when that happened, when venezuela decided to vote for chavez, my and 12ion was between 10 years old. We werent part of that decision. Now, seeing tand the movie backwards, that that ideological fight in 1998 left wingers and right its easy to understand what you have to do in venezuela. One in the world thinks the government should have the property of everything. Have a balance between government and market. Veryone in venezuela understands that you need huge Economic Reforms but you need a policy to protect the ones, who have less the tunities, to resist reforms that youve to do in the economy. Everyone in venezuela therstands now that the way power was used during this 20 years and the way institutions years is an these 20 complete abuse and we need a deep change of how we deal citizens and rulers. Citizens, and how the link. Utions can make the but i think right now, the deology is not part of the problem in venezuela and most of the people are in the center of ideologies. Im a center left winger, but now i am in the same coalition a marxist lyeninist. Without the political change no think, no matter your approach about the market or the government or the state, a secondary discussion. First you have to achieve elections to al have that kind of influence. Michael shifter excellent. Weve had excellent commentaries a terrific panel. Now i would like to invite your comments. And please wait for a microphone and and e tell us who you are, please be as brief as possible a question ife it you can. Gentleman with this here. Behind you. Evening. Goesme is this question to the united nations. Hen does secretary General Gutierrez will take a real stand to the Guaido Administration and will be a d when will there change . Well take your question now. So there are two questions. Name . Ts your hi, my name is im a at georgetown law. I want to know, like whats your of the change of the Russian Ambassador in enezuela, if that means that russia is changing their venezuela, and lso, you talked about a negotiated solution. Risk people that have very negative about dialogue to start the negotiation. Thank you. Yes. Webcast. Is being its a small group. It working . Same me is [inaudible] excellent discussion, just to begin with, i want to make a comment. Brief, please. Think we need bill cohen to elp us negotiate with the geopolitics. I told luis this last year and he said he didnt know him. I know him because i have been an american citizen and have life here. Of my hes an expert in china and et cetera. Turkey, and i really think we could use that vital issue, which is the geopolitics. You. Hank very good. Do you want to ask a question. Please be brief. Timothy retired Foreign Service officer. Positive. Egative, im from the last im a former yankee imperialist view. A point of this is fabulous. I admire the three michaels, and wonderful president , but im going to take her language and question. She said silver bullet. Shoot them. Sanctions, hurray. Bad guys, i studied under john bad guys go after the bad they are. E know who so cubans, i was in cuba during mariel and lived across the street just a question. Of pigs question, please. They are doing nice work in venezuela. Taking care of sick people but there are thousands of nasty bad killers. We should say to our european friends, because some are here, about them, were not oing to go there touristing until you start insist that out, bad cubans come out. The other thing that you said read todaynderful, i about portugal. The are europeans here, europeans, not just latinos, portuguese,gainst a a european private company, a company. All europeans, you, second, Embassy Officers tell your older ambassadors when you tonight, to instruct your government to pull out throw out ambassador, i think the ambassador. Michael shifter i think we get what youre trying to say. Youre with him. Okay. Michael shifter well have a inal question he and then go back to the panel. Your name, please. From anchor consulting group. Do you see any geopolitical black swans on the horizon that could change the outcome . I was thinking of like coronavirus or Something Like you that could potentially, know, change the political calculus . Okay. El shifter do you want to start. I think the u. N. Question [inaudible] its really hard. What can happen in the International Community that can game changer, a change in the approach of the russians, pressure against the cubans and what they are inside of the country. I think the biggest game changer have is having the e. U. , group and usa in the same level of pressure because if we ave to make an autopsy of what happened in the previous process what organization, happened, we had full pressure of all the international until the monument we arrived to the negotiation. But in the moment we sit on the important part of International Pressure is the they to say, all right, were raiding the table, they a discussion,ving lets see what if you stop the pressure, in the moment you them to the table they step up to the table and escape for the only way out. A negotiated transition. When we spoke, were not trying polarize inside of the Democratic Forces because while biggest difference kinde the position, is the some believe u do ep have a democratic eepifhany. The other approach, other with an is even internal crack, if you go with and maybe you de can crack the system until you a ce the army to have position and force a position, even in that scenario you will negotiate with the army because any kind of position to a ieve an election requires minimum level of negotiations to institutions. And understanding that this is a realistic approach, not the thinking that sometimes were a hostage of, the ealistic approach has to force us to be prepared and to with be ready for that. What means to be ready . A president ialan election. Othing less than a new electoral council. Nothing less than a new Justice System. Less than the opening of the humanitarian space. Were e same points 2014. G to achieve since every year it pass, it books level of deeper the damage of this kind of position. About the u. N. Well, its part of her inquiry general. The secretary we expect for them a most proactive role and the u. N. Can proactive role. Not only trying to have a way out and being any kind of election in in the future will need robust observation. Any kind of change in venezuela need a lot of International Support and company. Important part in the u. N. He scenario of trying to have all the stake holders on the same page about a transition, russia, means having china, usa, germany, uk, lima roup, et cetera, all of them have an important place in the u. N. For any kind of mandatory and on for transitions elections. And security council. Important those are things in the u. N. That a different role for them but we have to encourage them to play it. The american of states and the u. N. Is a composition. With ela, being a country a Fact Finding Mission procedure, starting in the human venezuela being an example of everything that you dont want in a country human rights, respect, and seat in the, have a human rights council. They want an election in the u. N. Nly for nine votes but they want it. That means a challenge for us. To close that part of diplomacy that the u. N. Has and approach, erent trying to break that coalition. Encourage all the free states to have a stronger voice in the maduro system. Do you want to respond to any of the questions . Okay. E okay. Michael . No. Just a quick word on the swans question. Your instinct is right. He pandemic issue is sort of there, as weve been reminded by the coronavirus virus in. Workinger report of the group we spoke about the potential Public Health impact not only within the country but the border. Essentially a country with a collapsed Public Health system. Of measles,utbreaks diphtheria and yellow fever. You ou know, god forbid, know, Something Like the coronavirus were to make venezuela, the ability to then respond and isolate people and do the kind that you would want to do in that scenario is one hat certainly, its pretty scary to contemplate. Have her thing people spoken about is, and its been lluded to, the potential for cross border attacks by groups nto colombia, that are very clearly orchestrated, staged from a safe may haven in venezuela would at least raise a colombian r the government about how they respond. Im not suggesting an invasion imminent but certainly politics being what they are, here would be an expectation that some sort of response would occur. Swans the arena of black thats the other thing that i think is worth watching. Michael shifter thank you. Round of one more questions. I think you had one . No, yeah . Kuwait for the microphone and tell us who you are. Goes for michael. Michael shifter whats your name . [inaudible] what is the role of president going to finish his residency using his last presidency years. In the the role venezuelan case . Started a diplomatic action but didnt have a successful end, so whats coming next . Is very, very a , and hes trying to have pro tag nix regionally. Hats going to be his actions in this venezuelan crisis . So too thank you. Ruben . Hi. Thanks for n the presentation. Just a brief question. Would be the incentive for maduro and theor hold general negotiations first and then to hold democratic elections. But i y dont see any hope to hear from you. Thanks. Incentives. Ter sir. U. S. Institute of peace. Ask president from the 1980s, 1990s, if there is anything that you see that was successful then that missing now and could be useful. Michael shifter thank you. A question for miguel. With news in d. C. Wanted to ask you about Bernie Sanders specifically. He has rechd to label maduro a so i wanted to see what your reaction is to him and other law makers who havent acknowledged the dictatorship, and im using that term, and i also want to find given venezuelas experience with socialism, do you have a lawmakersr any of the in washington, here in d. C. , who ave embraced some socialist olicies like senator sanders specifically. Michael shifter yes, please, two in the back. Yeah. You. Hi. Im natalieco, im here for the center of democracy in the americas. For the question general panel. I know cuba has come up a little bit but just delicately asking could the world do better and much, much worse when it cuba to policies towards that are directly affecting not the government but the people of venezuela. Thank you. Hello, my name is my question is for miguel. Socialism is not a problem for you. Problem is maduro and those guys. Michael shifter do you have a question . I promise, this is the last one. Sorry. This is a question for miguel. Ou speak of internal pressure, right . Can you elaborate a little bit is hat the strategy considering the amount of, you and death that weve seen political figures that are, you know, incarcerated and suffering for trying to stand up and lead those internal pressures. Michael shifter thank you. Lets start with michael and think about uel to his answers. Do you want to take the first . Michael camilleri look, when you talk about colombia the irst thing you have to acknowledge is just the whichdous generosity with colombia has received over 1. 5 venezuelans, at great cost financially, great strain to its of social services, education, health systems, to be creative about providing documentation, allowing them into the labor market, into the education system, into social services. Ts not perfect by any stretch but at a time when colombias finances are stretched, when trying to implement a complex Peace Agreement, the the government has xtended that level of generosity to venezuelans coming across the border and done, i they can to h as phobia the inevitable and resistance to immigrant population that is we see really re, frankly, is to be commended. So i think thats the place you start when speaking about president duke. For me, from a diplomatic colombia has arly been at the forefront of lima Group Efforts and more recently invoke the to neutral assistance treaty and i think really spotlight what, from colombias standpoint is a Security Threat emanating from venezuelan territory. Outink the verdict is still on how successful that has been, how successful it will be. Certainly its provided a kind of legal look for latin american targeted to impose sanctions on regime members and thats something in the report commend and encourage president on the other hand it as to some extent xlit within latin america, the coalition of countries that were grouped together under the lima group it more difficult to build that coalition. So i think that effort is still were kind of watching o see how effective it ends up being. Thank you. Anything ere about Central American experience . [inaudible] three kindion two or elements that i think are central , comparing america, more than 30 years ago, venezuela uation of today. We had a the time scenario. Nternational in all the free world, were United States, in trying to look for a solution in the region. There was a very strong from ship in the region the United States, and also, there was a first part where you kind of different approaches from washington that, end, there was also a in rtisan concern here washington. A region thathave for a way , looking out. Of the regional big countries were also trying to the way out, and sharing economic ambition. Mexico, brazil, and other countries. It was the international know, a favored, you peaceful solution. Problems we had ith, of course, the situation, with ically in nicaragua, the contra revolution but the nternational context was very avorable for that kind of alternative. Secondly, they the internal clear that they were loose secondly, in the war. War. Were in losing the here were incentives for alternatives. I think thats something that weve not been able to achieve in the case of venezuela because, as weve already said, time that they were the ed in negotiation International Community decided application of the sanctions, and thats, you mistake, when youre negotiating, in the case of enezuela, and thats something similar to colombia. Think that the colombia Peace Agreement was possible the guerrillausly suffered many defeats in the field. So Something Like that must appen also in the case of venezuela and also, i mean, two factors, i think we have underlined this afternoon, is, need an International Community very well aligned with a strategic mission, and effective e need the combination of sanctions and bringing ato have or negotiation. Nd of thank you, president chinchilla. You the last word. Of ael camilleri a lot questions. Its really clear that socialism f the 21st century is making the venezuelans live in the fifth and sixth century. Its really clear that that economical and political of the n is because breakdown of the model, and that have ideological those linkshey use, with groups and funding, its that way of understanding that soviet e like in the union have to have control about in ything, which ends corruption. What ends in the end, a small people taking money and all the power for the vast majority of the population, so its really clear. An ideological thing. Money, its the corruption, its the illegal ining but this is the ideological approach they build to build a state this way to use institutions and to use the power. Reason that were here and its the reason why, right have a s so easy to political consensus in public and in the Financial Sector in venezuela because years of a failed revolution, a failure narrative 21stsocialist model in the century who destroy all the services, economy and its really clear hat the policy is not attached its more what you have to do with the economy with institutions, with the people. To be hink its just clear in what is the answer, they dont have any ideological brand right now. Only ideological they have is money and corruption. The role of cuba. Cuba and venezuela have an important role. Part of a country intelligence, who are bringing of the army into yale. Almost 200 members of the army jail because of political reasons but with cuba we have an important, i hope we future an important lesson of what we can do as an community. Al first, it happens with venezuela. That common phrase saying no, going to happen in is not a, venezuela cuba. How many times have we heard ago . A 15 years i was in high school when chavez, a member of the army, to teach kids how to behave as soldiers. That, by gainst conscience, even in my house, it was part of the core values, against that kind of into that i wasnt when i was 13 years old but i was a crazy kid and a lot of old chool guys say its only a member of the army and school. Its not that bad. Its only a little bit of discipline. Its not that bad. Fter they took over institutions, and we heard, venezuela is not cuba, maybe control of the Justice System, part of the electoral system but it will not become and that e end, approach of saying thats not going to happen, were the that its not the right way to approach. F you think it can happen in countries like venezuela and cuba, it will happen. Stop that kind of damage before they grow because in the moment they take control and all the utions conveys of society to interact, harder, s harder and and the cost for populations are what were seeing in venezuela. The most important lesson is to ahead, and try to avoid the evolution of these into what they become. But its is a model, the same as ortega has done in nicaragua, same that they tried in bolivia, and its an exploitation model. Going to see maduro easy path to follow. About well, that was for but for us, the colombian government, were thinking with the colombian they are , way receiving venezuelans in that condition is for us an important and all the effort they are doing in the diplomatic to d to be ahead and trying be one of their main stake holders of the venezuelan really n for us is important and were thankful process. Role in this about sanders, we dont want to part of internal policy. Because its a mistake for us. Of the it in the state union. The only moment that you have all the crowd in the state of union giving an applause, a was with vation, guaido in the room. We met with the Administration Meeting with ve a the speaker of the house, with pelosi. For us, the consensus is important. We say, internal policy has to be outside of the consensus venezuela situation, imagine that i became part of internal policy, its not for my cause. Think it has to be clear for everyone here in the usa, hes a corrupt leader, hes trying to of roy this whole amount reedom we still have in venezuela. Pressure. Ernal im sorry for dodging this part, one of my best friends family. The he was part ofce the high school movement. 560 days s arriving to in jail. He had a trial a couple of weeks. It was the first time he was of the speak in front judge. And he say two messages, for me, re the best way to put an example of how we can overcome he fear to defeat the regime and internal pressure. First, he said, you can take as you want in this trial in the transportation from myself to the trial room is sky. Ment when i see the i havee only moment when clean air, a breeze. Its the only monument when i see different people so i dont one month, one year, or all eternity to this trial. Keep doing it because it makes me see different stuff. But the second, and i think the one message was for the judge. Say to the judge, i dont have any doubt that this whole is coming to an end. Nd at the end of this process, i will be able to sleep quiet because i did ll and i resist what i had to toist, and i did what i have do to make the change we want. Example, and with this, closing of these remarks. Remember parliamentian she was one of the victims of regime in the december operation trying to vibe members of the National Assembly. And thea cancer patient regime went to the clinic and say to her, if you vote against guaido, were going to provide you with all the treatment and and you oney you want need. If you vote against guaido, your life. To save she was really bad in a hospital. Betray guaido or the movement. Country. t betray her but im going to tell you, shes dead. And ied the week after, thats, i think, is the biggest of resilience, of of setting and also an example for the rest of the population. There are eak today more than 40 demonstrations in caracas but we speak today, in the earliest morning people took the streets dont have water and they dont have medicines. That country inside doesnt and what we have to do, to increase that pressure, realistic approach of our way out of the situation to see whats happening inside because every demonstration, every time raise their and voice against a regime, they have a huge risk. Now, guaidos ght uncle, is in jail, in was eadquarters because he in the same plane as president he arrived to the country. Incentive. Have the sible to profit they want, but to have the kind of country they want to rule, if they continue what they doing right now. I think in the broader spectrum rick is not asen their incentive to all of the regime and thatsransition, this nd also i link question, you have to look at your approach. Maybe for one part of the high ranks of the regime there is clear, to lose and its when a guy is branded he doesnt have anything to lou. He doesnt have any incentive to move forward, but the colonels, the e captains, they once were in the their army career and now they are seeing that they illegally destroying the economy and the army. There is no change in venezuela, they dont have a future. This new level of the economy, once part of the corruption, who a lot of money, i dont know of anyone in the world who a hundred Million Dollars r one billion to live in a small neighborhood caracas. D by they know t to its impossible. But also, there is a art of the routine, not these five guys in the high wrong, they want guarantees to live in the country, to be part of the political life of the country and that is the hardest part, because with all the damage, with all the suffering, it is hard to think that any future, you will have a couple of members of the regime making politics. We see different moments and different positions. Parts of them wants to be part of the politics. There is a core part. Be part ofo want to the economic rebuilding of the country. Right now, i am not in jail because of the sanctions. Means, the day of my sentence, my first phone call was for a highranking officer of the regime saying you are going to be sentenced today. It is not because he is my friend. It is because he wants someone to speak on behalf of him in the transition. The second phone call i received was from the Political Police only saying the address of my house. It was a sign they were going to raid my house and put me in jail. , becauseot happening they dont want to be the cause of the transition. The third part, why i am here this now, is because middle part of the networks in the regime i starting to build. What happened today had a lot of Collateral Damage for a lot of people. What is going to happen in the future, with the supporters they have, it is going to make huge damage. Most important is that the only way the economy goes well, the only way to have a real country is to have maduro out of the picture. It, wer we have to build need a real election. Thank you. Let me thank you for your stimulating, awful comments. Thank you so much for sharing your perspective with us. Congratulations on a wonderful report. I commend it to everybody. I want to thank elizabeth. Thank you all. Announcer 1 about venezuela, the Associated Press reports on tuesday the Treasury Department block u. S. Companies from doing business, accusing the geneva subsidiary of the russian state owned oil giant of providing a critical lifeline to maduro as he seeks to bypass u. S. Sanctions. For months, u. S. Officials have been warning Foreign Companies that they could face retaliation if they continue to do business with maduro. Those admonishments have been aimed primarily at russia, which u. S. Officials say handles about 70 of Venezuelan Oil transactions that have been rerouted since the Trump Administration made it illegal for americans to buy crude from venezuela. Announcer 2 politico held a discussion on how campaigns plan to engage with nonvoters this election cycle. Watch that tonya 8 00 a. M. Eastern on cspan. Later tonight, President Trump holds a Campaign Rally in phoenix, arizona. That is live at 9 00 p. M. Eastern on cspan. Listen live on the free cspan radio app. Announcer 1 urg this election season, the candidates beyond the talking points are only revealed over time. Since you cant be everywhere, there is cspan. Our campaignrogr0ming differs from all other political coverage for one simple reason. It is cspan. We have brought you your unfiltered view of government every since 1979 and this year we are bringing an unfiltered view of the people seeking to steer the government this november. In other words, your future. This election season will be deep, direct and unfiltered. See the biggest picture for yourself and make up your own mind with cspans campaign 2020, brought to you as a Public Service by your television provider. The issue that is most important to me right now is the fact that our veterans do not have housing. Hampshire,hough new which is one of our 50 states, right now veterans have to leave and go to vermont or massachusetts in order to get the services we need. I dont think that is appropriate. These people make a sacrifice for our country and they should be able to have services when they come home. I am interested in having the candidates focused on actionable policies. The most important thing to me about this campaign is we need to work on gun violence, health care, college education. We have a lot of things to work senate voteshe against the truth in a partisan manner, it is time for us to return to our roots, face facts. It is time to face the truth moving forward and we can do that if we dont open our eyes and pay attention. Support part is education, including the latest cost of education. Legislationncerning coming out of the Trump Administration in regards to secondary education. Divorce has not done a lot for teachers. S a teacher, i have seen it for me, education is the number one. Announcer 1 voices from the road on cspan. Students from across the country told us the most important issues for the president ial candidates to address. ,limate change, gun violence teen vaping, college affordability, Mental Health and immigration. We are awarding 100,000 cash prizes. The winners will be announced on march 11. Now, a look at the possible compote copyright implications for Software Development ahead of the supreme course Supreme Court case google v. Oracle. The case also covers the importance of code being covered by copyright laws. Hosted by the hudson institute, this is just over one hour and 10 minutes. All right. I believe that we will now begin. So thank you all for coming to our event today on the google v. Oracle case