Transcripts For CSPAN Taiwan Elections Discussion 20240713

Noticed, but judging by the turnout perhaps you did. Outset, i wanted to say a couple words about the election in taiwan on saturday, just a couple, and then turned over turn it over to our Panel Speakers to offer insight. First, i think that the election says more about taiwan then it says about anything else. That only highlight because i think we all are immediately moving to what it means for china. For all practical purposes, taiwan is not a part of china. Why do we move immediately to talk about what this means for china . What it means most is that taiwan values the same things the rest of the free world values. It has conducted its seventh residential election president ial election. It is getting to be such a normal thing that it barely even merits congratulations anymore. We have an election every four years, every two years. The world does not congratulate us on having made this achievement. It has become commonplace in taiwan. It has become commonplace because they value the same things we do. I think the elections do hold a message for china. It is more than just one country, two systems, which does get back to some of those fundamental issues. What it says to china is a needs to take a full approach to taiwan, one that recognizes where people in taiwan are on matters of taiwan sovereignty and taiwans relationship with china. Will they do that . We will hear from our guests in that regard. I am very skeptical that they will because i think in beijing there is an attitude that they can predict the future, that they understand the ways of history and that somehow history and economics will vindicate them in the long run. Anhink it is actually intellectually arrogant way to look at the future. With a need to do is look more closely at the end graphics and at the trend in taiwan. Despite all odds that they will not do that, i hope they will. The third thing i think that it holdsn holds lessons for u. S. Taiwan relations Going Forward. I think it offers new opportunities. Ingwens reelection gives an opportunity for the u. S. Antiwant to move forward on some things, and taiwan to move forward on some things going particularly a freetrade agreement, which should be the priority in the relationship Going Forward out of the election. It coincides with opportunities on the u. S. Side. We have got a terrific group of people to talk to us about this today. We are going to start out with congressman ted yoho. Ted yoho is a congressman from florida representing the third district, which he has done for seven years. Path evant to our task today is the fact that he is the Ranking Member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs relating to asianpacific. Congressman yoho yoho has been a friend and ally of the Heritage Foundation. I do not know if you have heard this news, but commerce when yoho congressman yoho is in his final term because, remarkably, it is a pledge she made when he was elected he would term limit himself. I think that is a terrific achievement. I am proud of him for having done that. Having worked with him a little bit over the last few years, i can tell you one year is plenty of time for him to make trouble. I am sure he will have a lot to do this coming year. I am sure he will go out very strong. We are happy to have him here to talk to us about the significance of the election and what it holds for u. S. Taiwan relations. Congressman yoho. [applause] appreciate it. Good morning, everybody. Hello, ambassador stanley kao. We appreciate your hospitality on everything we have asked and done with you. You have always been there with taiwan and we appreciate it. Happy new year to everybody. Off just saying congratulations to taiwans forident tsai ingwen winning reelection. Her election speaks volumes on taiwans future. By winning with the largest margin recorded and beating her opponent by 18 points, it sends a clear message of where taiwan and the people of taiwan stand. They stand for liberty and freedom and democracy, with no interference from any nation. The modernsai is Ronald Reagan of the asia region. Unfortunately, china appears to dismiss president tsais victory and her offer. That offer is to start a dialogue with beijing on conditions that taiwans sovereignty and democracy are to be respected. Office Taiwan Affairs reiterated dialogue must be predicated on the acknowledgment that taiwan is part of one china. Chinas commitment to applying the one country, two systems that is trying to be used to govern hong kong as a semiautonomous territory. The protests in hong kong have brought devastation to hong kongs economy and has change the narrative of the Safe International hub for doing business. Business, travel, and tourism have declined precipitously during the past seven months. Unless things change in hong kong, they will continue. It will take years for that economy to recover. Wondering ifbe that effort to take control of the judicial system and to dishonor the 50 Year Agreement they had made between Great Britain and china was worth it. It was beijings growing influence in the legal system and the performance to handle the protests in hong kong that undoubtably energized the taiwan people. China will be wise to apply the lessons they are learning in hong kong to further actions against taiwan. Freedom,reaten ones democracy, and sovereignty, there will be a huge cost paid. Keep in mind the people of hong kong and much of the world realize that hong kong is a province of china. That is wellwritten. That was in the agreement by Great Britain and china. By the people who made that commitment, there was no question. Hong kong is a province of china. Taiwan is not and has never been part of the prc or the Chinese Communist party. You guys know the history of how taiwan formed. They fought the civil war. They lost. They left to taiwan. They developed a new nation. Country and some of our leaders the policy of president nixon and carter and Henry Kissinger have allowed the one country, two system cloud that the confusing cloud of confusion to be maintained for too long. It is time to clarify this confusion before chinas action escalates more tension in the region and gets to a flashpoint that we do not want to see, as they did in hong kong with the now infamous and misguided at Tradition Law exTradition Law. We have seen enough conflict in this world. I am 65 i will be 65 in april. I have seen enough conflict. This is something we should Work Together through diplomacy so nations can prosper. If nations prosper, their people prosper. If there people prosper, we are all safer. President tsaied and her party of stealing this policies,th populist smears against clinical rivals, and fear mongering against china. Theve also contributed result of foreign interference, particularly the United States. This is false. It is there action their action. We got singled out along with senator rubio, chuck schumer, and nancy pelosi and myself as the ones that were causing the dissent in hong kong. The blame for that false strictly on beijing falls strictly on beijing with the exTradition Law they pushed through. I meant to bring some pictures i do not have. The people of hong kong have experienced freedom and liberty. They have had that for over seven years. Unfortunately, the people from china of the communist party and pla, which id the have coined the communist Chinese Communist party complex, they have never experienced freedom and liberty. When you try to take that away from somebody, it is a force of nature that says we will not be suppressed. President tsai says she is willing to have dialogue with china if there is respect for taiwans sovereignty and democracy. That is all they are asking. President xi mac president xi sai is wise to pivot to the south. Spokenple of taiwan have clearly that they want to have their sovereignty, selfgovernance. President tsai to pivot to the south to increase vladek relations with all countries, diplomatic relations with all countries and investment with other countries so that they are not solely dependent on china. The free world, should continue to increase taiwans world acceptance in the form of diplomatic acceptance and reentry to the world organizations like the World Health Assembly and the u. N. Ie one of the first know in congress when beijing forced taiwan out of the wha, the World Health Assembly, and said they could not be represented there independently, we said this is not right. Taiwan has contributed so much to the world of health with the they willmic and continue to do that these are things that know no borders. For one country to say you cannot participate is wrong. One cannot anticipate or believe that xi jinping will change his policies. For him to do so would be admitting a mistake. Never makes jinping mistakes. He cannot afford to. That would show weakness and he cannot lieu ofo, especially in the elections. The communist party complex accept taiwans willingness of the status quo and respect their sovereignty. China has nothing to gain by trying to unify taiwan to the mainland. However, it has much to lose. It will force an International Backlash with countries and companies wanting to divest from china. I see that so clearly. You see that already in hong kong. I have businesses that said we are in hong kong or thinking about expanding but we are not now. Area that people agree is a province of china. It will force in International Backlash and these companies will want to divest from china. If china accepts the status quo and taiwan is sovereign selfgoverning democracy, they, taiwan, and the world will benefit. Xi and china would gain much respect to accept president tsais offer and leave them alone. With that, i am going to conclude my remarks. I appreciate you letting me come by and talk. I feel strongly about this. I know as we talk to people from around the world we have our manufacturers looking to do the abc model. That is to manufacture anywhere but china because of the ofression and the lack following the rule of law. This is something that will continue until china chooses to change their tactics. We cannot force china to do anything. I do not to, but i think we as democracies around the world can way actions changed by the we choose to do business and whom we choose to do business. President congratulate tsai for winning a resounding election. Looking forward to her leadership, looking forward to working with ambassador kao. Thank you all for letting me come by and participate. [applause] i will be happy to. One or two questions in the audience. We will get you a microphone. Good morning, congressman. After this election, we are seeing the chinese or Ministry Foreign ministry sending a strong message urging the World Community to adhere to the one china principle. Do you see, after taiwan people sending a message to the world on theey want to stand democratic side of the world, do you see the international upmunity starting to open after secretary pompeo sending his congratulatory message . You see more countries open up to be more openly supporting taiwan . I think we will see that. I truly believe that. If you look at hong kong, it is a province of pushing 8 million people. 25 of those people are coming out and protesting because of the removal of the freedom and liberty. I have a set of pictures i do not bring emma but i can describe them to you. I have a blade of grass and an asphalt road. If i would ask you which one is stronger, you could look at them. Asphalt is hard and can crush grass, but when you see grass growing and pushing through asphalt, which is more powerful . What that represents is freedom and liberty. You cannot suppress that that is an innate ability or trait that all humans have. They wanted to be free. China does not have enough people or enough money to suppress freedom. I think you will see countries expand inies further the future to taiwan. If china is smart, they would accept and respect the offer president tsai she is not looking for independence. She just wants to be left alone, as are people do. They would be well served if they did that. China has already been so much from what taiwan as the world has. Why would you want to rock the boat . You have seen what is happening in hong kong. With those numbers come out, you will see a huge drop in their productivity, their gdp. I think other countries will recognize that. Questions . United newsgroup taiwan. Congressman, you have argued it is time to recognize taiwan as a country. Will you push the u. S. To recognize taiwan or dual recognition, both china and taiwan . We have and we have continued to do that. We will continue to do that. If you go back to the finalization to when they fought the war, he was the ruler of china after world war ii. He was the ruler there. They had conflict with the communists. He lost. They brought the kmt to taiwan and formed their own nation. Since that time, they have got their own flag, their own economy, their own form of government, and they are an economic powerhouse. They are our 11th largest trading partner. They, if china was smart, would not cause disruption where they cannot win. They could overpower taiwan. They could do that. Is that really going to pay to their benefit longterm . Where is that going to cause not just a regional conflict do you think other western democracies are going to sit still and watch a democracy in that part of the region that is not causing anybody any problems are we going to sit around and watch that be taken away . That is the question they need to ask. Xi jinping can save face by changing policies. That will be his decision. I know where this country will probably stand. We have taiwans relation act 40 years in the making. We had a visit by president tsai. We were honored to sit with her in new york during that dinner. I think you will see that happen more around the world. I think you will see other countries, and reopen relationships with taiwan. We are at a point in the 21st century. We do not need to conquer nations. We need to expand nations and expand trade and focus on things that make us all stronger. Thank you. See you andt to thank you for letting me come by. [applause] terrific them a particularly good analogy with grass and concrete that was terrific, particularly good analogy with grass and concrete. I really like that analogy. It gives me great pleasure and honor now to ring to the stage stanley kao. Representative to the United States, where he has been for about four years now. You can be forgiven if it seems like much longer than 40 years. I think some of us have known stanley for a long time because he has represented taiwan in the in many postse and in washington the past. He brings a tremendous amount of wisdom to this drop job. He has been an excellent representative in washington. With that, let me invite stanley to come to the stage and offer his remarks. Thank you very much for having me, walter. , immediately after the Election Results came officially to the state departments measures of congratulations message of congratulations care there is one particular gentleman i mikeed secretary pompeo. He tweeted, the United States ingwen. Ates dr. Tsai taiwan once again demonstrates the strength of its robust democratic system. Tsai, for president your leadership in developing a strong u. S. Partnership. Him, secretary pompeo. We could not with him more. Congressman yoho, i would like to take this opportunity to thank you very much for some of the most gracious and powerful messages of support. To marchght me back 2019, right here on this stage at the Heritage Foundation. Congers and yoho congressman in a videoconference with president tsai ingwen when she in honolulu, hawaii. The conversation was so lively, so enjoyable, so inspiring, and stimulating. July 2019,ago, congressman yoho would travel and washington to new york defeat the crazy traffic in midtown manhattan. Those who attended the gala where tsai ingwen would receive a gift from the endowment for democracy and the endowment for democracy and Freedom House for her outstanding leadership in sovereignty,wans democracy, political freedom, civil liberties, and human rights. This greatall of american organization, the right things they have been doing, national endowment, Freedom House, and a couple of others have been blacklisted by china yesterday by china. Yesterday, the Human Rights Watch was denied entry in hong kong because of what the organization has been doing. This is an important issue here. We always believe any proud country, the United States, taiwan, big or small, is like any proud individual in this room. If you do not stand for something, you will fall for anything. The election and taiwan was all about. This is what the robust u. S. Taiwan relations are about. It is about a celebration of victory of democracy in action, a triumph of eight vibrant civil vibrant Civil Society, embracing freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, fair and free trade, the rule of law, and abiding respect for human rights and Human Dignity and Regional Peace and stability. Shared core values and beliefs and our common interests, by all means. Out,ngressman yoho pointed in some corners of the world, democracy may be in recession or in retreat, but given the extremely precarious situation , and tieback in tieback, and the millions of underground christians, what they have to go through in china , the men and women on taiwan stay the course. Persistent,ront, pushing back, day in and day out. Intimidation, infiltration, nonsense and orwellian from an 800 pound colossus distant cousin across the street. President in president tsai ingwens postelection speech, she kept her calm, her cool, her usual nonconfrontational for the, calling resumption of constructive ,xchange between two sides based on the principle of peace, peace, charity, democracy, and dialogue with no political preconditions. Taiwan citizens have their ,oice, have their choice unequivocally heard through a transparent and peaceful process and once again proved that democracy works and works well in taiwan. In a chinese speaking taiwan. It is taiwans biggest asset and strength. This brings me back to one of my favorite sayings. , go long. T to go fast if you want to go if you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together. We never take democracy or taiwans Success Story for granted. It is also about this overwhelming bipartisan support and unwaveringand unwavering cof the american people, the u. S. Congress, the american government, and each one of you in this room, and numerous others. Driversievers and key that taiwan could become a democracy as it is today. A vital and reliable partner. Rest assured that taiwan will continue to join the u. S. And all likeminded countries in protecting and pursuing our shared core values, beliefs, and common interests. Yes, taiwan can help, and we are will always punch above its weight to help. You very much. [applause] with that i would like to invite russell shao, director of the Taiwan Institute to the stage. Russell has assembled a Representative Panel of some of the most authoritative opinion on u. S. Taiwan relations imaginable. Representatives from project 2040 nine, csis, George Washington university, all experts in their field. With that i turn it over to russell and he will guide us through a discussion of the taiwan Election Results. Ok. Good morning, everyone. My name is russell shao. I am the executive director of the global Taiwan Institute. On the half of gti, i would like to thank stanley kao and investor representative yoho for those its personal remarks. I hope they will set the stage for the discussion that we are about to have. I would also like to express my gratitude to the heritage for Heritage Foundation for cohosting this today with dti. Gti is a think tank dedicated to taiwanese policy research. We have a special issue of our global taiwan brief that will be released this wednesday written by some of our advisors and inhouse analysts writing their assessment on the opportunities challengeslties for u. S. Taiwan relations in 2020. If youre not already subscribed, you may do so at our website. In the interest of time, i will dispense with a lengthy introduction, but i do want to highlight a few points. Earlier, the elections that were held over this weekend were taiwans seventh direct president ial elections, its 10th legislative elections, and there have been three peaceful transfers of executive power since the Country First held its first direct president ial election in 1996. They also have a Voter Participation rate that is the envy of any democracy. The Voter Participation rate of overelection was 70 70 . With all the votes tallied, president tsai ingwen has been reelected by a significant margin of 18 or 2. 6 5 million votes. Only democracy the people in the only democracy in death another four years as president and the majority control of the legislative another four years as president and the majority control of the whileative newland president tsais election has been impressive, it was not guaranteed. After a dramatic defeat of her party in the local elections, that was interpreted as a referendum on her personally to dealing with the unprecedented contested primary for an incumbent president , she emerged as the favorite candidate to win the 2020 president ial election and succeeded. Have contributed to her electoral success . Of thee the implications elections results . The focus of our discussion today will be on the latter. Let me point out three factors that i think we can go into in more detail either in the discussion or in the q a if people are interested three issue stand out that contribute to the electoral outcome. First sovereignty as a focal point. Second, split Opposition Party. Third turnout. The results in terms of the demographics of voters are not i have not seen any results yet. Given the high turnout rate, i nk it is suggested that we have an allstar cast of to parseand thinkers the results and analyze what those results mean in terms of u. S. Taiwan relations and for possible u. S. Policy responses. To my immediate left we have bonnie glaser, who is a senior the director of the china power project at csis. She works on issues related to asianpacific security. Was she served as a consultant for various u. S. Government offices including the departments of defense and state. To her left we have dr. Robert sutter who is the professor of practice of international , to my farexcuse me left we have dr. Robert sutter who is the perfecter of practice of International Affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington university. Professor sutter has published ,2 bucks, over 300 articles several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary east asian affairs. I challenge anyone in this room who pays attention to asian policy who has claimed that they have out red red professor sutter has served as the specialist of Foreign Affairs of the congressional no one as well as the National Intelligence officer for east asia in the u. S. Government. Last but lost neat at least, we have the executive doctor of the project 2049 institute. On the a leading expert People Liberations Army rocket force and Strategic Support force, military political leadership. Mark has served in a variety of military and private sector positions, including serving 20 years with the u. S. Air force where he worked on intelligence planning and policy. And 2004 he 1997 china china andor for taiwan in the office of secretary of defense. You all agree that we have an incredible lineup of speakers, they have each been assigned specific topics to address and we will leave sometime at the end for a moderated discussion as well as audience q and a. I would like to first start off with bonnie. Can you please address the issue the implication for cross stream relations . Indwellsyou, russell her for inviting me to participate in the panel today. Obviously as all of everyone is very much interested in the implications. There have been several authoritative reactions. The one i have paid closest attention to is the statement out of the Taiwan Affairs office. Findu read it, you will that there are references to all of the right phrases that china always uses when it talks about cross trade relations one country, to systems, 1990 two consensus, opposition to taiwan independence. One phrase that i think is particularly important is a spokesperson said the Peaceful Development of cross trade relations is the right rot Cross Strait Relations is the right path to this is the policy that xi jinping inherited from his predecessor. It is remarkable given the more assertive and at times aggressive policies that china has pursued all over the world, is just taiwan, this policy one that xi jinping has adhered to. The tactics of course have gotten much tougher. The question of course is is this a placeholder as china assesses and discusses internally their reactions or is this going to be the policy that we see Going Forward . Of course the chinese could course the chinese could conclude that there policy of essentially promoting economic integration as a means to political integration, that that has failed and if they were to conclude that, we would have to ask what are the odds that they go in a softer direction as we had walter suggest would be preferable and congressman yoho as well. Or did they move in a much tougher direction . Most of us would agree that it would be in a much tougher direction. We can try to address a little later the issue of the potential use of force because that is and let usssibility remember that xi jinping for the first time january 2 last year included in his statement that was on the 40th anniversary of the taiwan patriots that the use of an option. I think that china will conclude that its policy has not completely failed and that it is not convenient to draw that judgment at this time. While i do not onetwo spend my time going into great detail about the Election Results, i want to hit on a couple points that i think china is going to Pay Attention to. This is the second time of course that the kmt has put forward a candidate for president ial election that has not been very competitive. Say it is asuld much a kmt loss as it is a dbd win. I am going to list of the negatives first can the kmt a defectived candidate . Can it regain support . Course is theof fact that han kuoyu, when he directlyng very denounced one country to systems. He also said that if there were peace talks, there would be a precondition. If he had one, china would have to renounce the use of force. Will be questioning whether kmt is a party that they can even work with Going Forward. Russell mentioned the utes and i think this is the biggest challenge for china. Isthe youth and i think this the biggest challenge for china. Polls are showing diminished support for reunification are in large part a youth vote. The demographics operate very much against beijing. Fact,ort of also the around the negative side of the ledger, is there united tactics failed. We should not let down our guard and be complacent Going Forward, but nevertheless the political influence operations as an actor as active as they were, appear to not have much success. I really want to say a little bit about the positives that they will draw. The positive lessons. One is of course that the kmt candidate actually won more votes than last time. Han kuoyu got more votes. If we look at the party vote in the legislative u. N. Vote, the camp tea and the dbd got about the same. And theh got the kmt dbd got about the same number of votes. What this tells us is this was an antihong vote. Trusted tsai ingwen to defend taiwans sovereignty. This is what the chinese fear, that there will be a growing support for the dbp. The riseher story is of the Taiwan Peoples Party got 11. 2 of that vote. That is not inconsequential. As beijing looks for potential partners Going Forward, one might think that they will seek coengine utch the kmt was not rejected by the people of taiwan. Inhink that is worth keeping mind. A few other positives just to kick off i think despite england,cerns about they will conclude that tsaiately she about ingwen, they will conclude that ultimately she will not push for independence. They feared that she will, particularly unencumbered by the need for reelection. The Vice President could be a potential conduit for more radical deep green ideas in the government, but at the end of the day, they know that tsai ingwen is not a contrary been contrary and and will not contrarian and will not take the same dangerous moves. The reasons of course the Important Reasons for their confidence Going Forward as their evolving military capabilities. There will be voices in china and there already are there was an article a few weeks ago by the deputy in the Taiwan Affairs office saying our strategy has failed and we should adopt a harder line approach, this is not going to prevail as their policy. Teaching pain has a lot on his has a lot oninping his plate. Tensions ongoing with the United States. Xi jinping will continue to say unification is inevitable. Taiwan is a part of china. I do not think that he is going to fundamentally think that this is the time to conclude that china needs to have a completely new approach. If we go back to j his january 2 speech, which i think is important to continue this study, also xi jinping is pushing to make progress on unification with taiwan. I personally do not sense that he is urgent about this. I believe he has not set a hard deadline of 2049. Some of my friends in china say he will not be alive then so it does not matter. I continue to believe that there is no hard deadline that he has set. I think we will see that china is not going to drop its preconditions for cross strait dialogue. Chinaill continue to warn and the United States to not take provocative moves to challenge chinese sovereignty. The chinese of course are not going to take what tsai ingwen said in her victory speech at face value, but they will Pay Attention. I think it is important to note that tsai ingwen talked about her commitment to peaceful, stable Cross Strait Relationship. She says they have kept a nonadventurous attitude that has kept tensions from breaking out. There are people who study taiwan who agree with it. They may not be able to agree with that publicly, but they understand that she has not postponed a referendum that relates to independence. Xi jinping will not accept tsai ingwens preconditions for dialogue that she talked about parity for example and accepting the existence of both sides. I am quite confident china is not going to accept the existence of the republic of china. I personally think that the chinese are unlikely to conclude that this is the time to really use military force. The risks are high. It is not just a matter of seizing taiwan. It is a matter of holding it, a matter of winning over the people of taiwan. They could face a massive insurgency. Not too many people talk about it publicly, but look at what happened in hong kong. We have to ask the question, would the people of taiwan fight for their own sovereignty and independence . I personally believe that they would. Xi jinping continues to talk about china having in important. D of strategy. Erio this includes his assessment of Peaceful Development of Cross Strait Relations is still possible, it is still the right strategy and peaceful unification is not unachievable. Buildingent will keep up their military capabilities so if the time comes that the leadership decides to use force, the pla will be prepared. I would argue that having a decisive military advantage is not the only factor that xi jinping will consider in making such a decision. Thank you. That is excellent, bonnie, thank you. I know we framed it in what is taiwans take away, but what type a can take away from this, what washington can what this, can take away from what washington can take away from this now that we have seen what chinas likely reaction will be in their review of Cross Strait Relations in the past four years, i would like to ask dr. Sutter to give us a review of u. S. Taiwan relations, how we got here now and where we may be going in the next four years. Thanks very much. Thank you to the sponsors for inviting me. I have a long perspective on iss issue and so my focus what this really means for the improvement that has been taking place in the u. S. Approach toward taiwan in recent years. Ofs was an element uncertainty in that process, the results of the taiwan election. What i see is we are having continuity now in taiwan and this improvement will continue. I do not see this element causing difficulty and my assessment. What i would like to do in the remarks that i have, i would like to focus on this issue of what this means or the continuation of its pride positive trajectory in a u. S. Taiwan relations. What i have to do first of all is talk about the manifestations of those improved relations. Then look at the causes of it and see how the election has changed that in one degree or another and give an evaluation and then look at the four elements of uncertainty Going Forward. I am going to do that in just a few minutes. It should not take too long. The manifestations of this is something that it is not highprofile. That is good, i think. You will see that there are benefits to that and yet it is quite remarkable. Frankly speaking, i have been looking at u. S. Taiwan relations since before the taiwans relations act and i have never seen a. Like this. This is the most positive. That i have seen in the relationship. The arms sales relationship just goes right through. These dramatic diplomatic statements, mr. Pompeos remarks were referred to that never happened before. The state department in past years has always been the gatekeeper, the limiter, the one that ensures that other parts of the government does not do more things visavis taiwan. Now the government is in the forefront, pushing new support, publicly associating themselves more and more taiwan as mr. Pompeo did in reaction to the election. Newu. S. Support covers the Indo Pacific Strategy of the United States, the support for taiwan, working together with taiwan in the islands. This was something that was not done for a long time and now it is again. Then we have these other movements on the trade area and the u. S. Government is supporting taiwan in its investment abroad, working in conjunction with taiwan to do these kinds of things. What is the cause, what are the causes of these actions on the part of the United States . There are several that i would. 2. First is beijings pressures. Point to. First is beijings pressures. This is something that obviously gets u. S. Policy attention. Then there is taiwans location. Taiwan is located in a critical area dealing with the indo specific Indo Pacific Strategy. Towards athe u. S. Has much more competitive relationship really a rivalry with china in many respects taiwans relations location looms large. Then there is taiwans democracy and free market economy, which are which earlier speakers have talked a lot about. This is important for its own sake, but it is also important if you see yourself as many in the u. S. Government now do, that you are in a competition with china. Foreign values, rule of law, and that sort of thing in world affairs. Taiwan looms much larger and much more important because of that. Then you have of course the idea that a relationship with taiwan could serve as a way of imposing costs on china. There are american officials who feel that way. These four drivers of the relationship remain quite strong and have gotten stronger over the last several years, within impact that we have a much more active relationship with taiwan. There are breaks. This is where we see the most remarkable change in american policy. The things that were breaks in the past do not matter as much as they used to. The first is you do not want trouble with china. You do not want to move forward with china taiwan because you might have trouble with china. We have had 2. 5 years now of u. S. Affronts toward beijing in one area or another, so clearly that is not that important in u. S. Policy making this point, the fact that beijing will be upset about these things. That is less important than it was under previous governments that were very concerned with a strict interpretation of the one china policy. I do not think this in government is nearly as concerned about that. In the reasons that there this acute rivalry with china. The other reason is the United States did not want to have trouble in the region, that the improved relations with taiwan would be viewed negatively in the region in east asia, among east asian partners and allies. This too has been overtaken by events. The u. S. Has done all these things in the region that are very detrimental to beijing, so this is not this is just another element. The salience of this is less than america calculating its policy towards taiwan. The third element here is that taiwant record is that used support from the United States, it was seen as doing this and i think it did do this, for political advantage for themselves. Moved in areas that were irresponsible and provocative visavis beijing as a result the warning here is dont improve your relationship with taiwan because they well take advantage of it. When i personally have tremendous confidence that she knows how to manage these issues and will not see the need for exploiting it for domestic reasons and taiwan. There is the fourth reason and that is still there and it is very important. It is beijing. Aging is very powerful and bonnie has given us a perspective on this issue, which i think has an excellent perspective, saying that they will be controlled, but they have great power they can do all sorts of things if they want to do, visavis the United States. That is still a big break in a Forward Movement in the relationship, so it needs to be done carefully. What ive seen over the past several years is that itd it is careful. There is a consensus among the people in congress that there seems to be a consensus i think it is pretty clear that there is that Forward Movement is justified and we should move it stepbystep in this regard. In thenot seen a change stated one china policy. The u. S. Has a one china policy, but if you look at the history of you the u. S. Is relationship with taiwan after the normalization of beijing, it has been interpreted in different ways by different governments. Most governments have been strict in interpreting the one china policy, but several havent. I think we are in a phase where we are not being we are being flexible about this from the u. S. Side then we used to be. When i look at the drivers, when say, it the brakes, i think the Forward Movement in improving relations and it doing these various things on Economic Issues and defense, we may get to the point of an fda as robert diplomaticd about or issues that the relationship will get ever stronger Going Forward. I think it will remain within the confines of the american one china policy, which is not but chinese one china principle. Withn be defined broadly good results for the United States and taiwan. Good, but wety have uncertainties. The first was this really election. Got reelected a had have k we could have this was an uncertainty for me. We dont have that uncertainty anymore, so Going Forward, this is the way the direction is going to go. But we still have three other uncertainties. One is president trump. He is unpredictable. He might make a deal with china. He might that deal might involve constraining seriously the relationship between taiwan. That is something that china would want. So this is something we have to think about. And then the other part is that we are going to have an election in this country at the end of this year. There are people in the Democratic Party who worked for Hillary Clinton others who do thatant to have to have strict interpretation of the one china policy. And Jake Sullivan was quoted campaign. 2016 senior officer in the clinton campaign. He said there will be no change in our taiwan policy. People like jake are still around, and they could be in the Democratic Party Going Forward in 2020. We need to watch the sort of thing to see if it would lead to change. My point is that donald trump, believe it or not, and the Democratic Party, if they choose to move in this direction, are constrained because of the change in american policy toward china. I think this change toward a harder approach, toward a tougher approach, in particular to this trust of beijings position there is a fundamental sense that beijing has tripped the United States. It is distressful and duplicitous. This kind of sense is strong in congress, the administration. If you make deals with beijing, do you want to sacrifice taiwan when you do not know what youre going to get with your deal . I think the constraint is going to be pretty serious on mr. Trump if he chooses to go in this direction, and on the future democratic president if they choose to go in this direction of accommodating beijing and restricting relations with taiwan as a result. The thirdou have uncertainty that is unresolved, and that is beijing itself. Outhere i just would point i think bonnie my agree and mark my degree, im not sure is that, yes, i certainly feel the same way that bonnie did, that bonnie laid out, where xi jinping is going to go. But there are an awful lot of experts that do not feel that way. There is a lot of publicity now talking about the dangers of the situation. From various organizations that are proposing the sort of thing. Rand Corporation Analysts and various other analysts, talking about this type of thing, the dane or the danger of this type of situation. So we have to be cognizant of that. Are we right thinking that it is going to be ok that the general approach of beijing will continue . I personally agree with that, and i do not have as a persuasive argument bonnie does. My basic argument is this. The chinese have been confronted over the past 2. 5 years by one of front from the United States after another. Xi jinping is taking the lead in dealing with donald trump and in dealing with these affronts. Covering all sorts of issues. ,hat indeed have they done visavis the United States . They tried to avoid confrontation with the United States they still do it. Xi jinping has a strong man age strongman image, but in practice you do not see that kind of confrontation. So i say to myself if the u. S. Manages its relationship with taiwan carefully, i can see Forward Movement, where xi jinping does not want to confront the United States on this issue. Maybe later, but not now. I will start i will stop there. Thank you. Thank you so much per that was superb, dr. Sutter. The analysis that you a to the question that you bring to the question, one could argue with the conclusion, but it is hard to argue with the analysis and the methodology that you applied in analyzing the different drivers and breaks, breaking down the variables. I would like to turn it over to mark stokes, who in the past made discussions on the topic that he will address today. But really looking at the history of u. S. Approaches to taiwan policy and where we would be going in the future. Thank you very much, russell. Depreciation also to the Heritage Foundation and also for you in the audience who has come out on a monday morning. I would also like to take time out to express condolences to the family of the republic of anda Armed Forces Officers airmen who lost their lives this month in a tragic helicopter crash. They made the ultimate sacrifice for their own country, and there is a ceremony that was held today. And i would just acknowledge the sacrifices. It is certainly warranted. There has been a lot of discussion on the outcomes of the election. The remarks that i will give here briefly predate the would be applied equally if the emt would have won the presidency for the majority in the oi. But with the election behind us now, i think from a policy perspective, there is no bad time to do a fundamental policy review of u. S. Policy toward taiwan and across relations more generally. I mean something that not just 1993, 19 94 policy review with peripheral issues, but really something that looks at the fundamentals of our policy that has endured for at least since ,970 1979, if not earlier depending on how far you want to go back in tracing the origins of a u. S. China policy. There have been a few good reasons to look at some of the fundamentals. It starts with a statement of objective reality. Bear in mind the statement of objective reality is separate from the u. S. Policy approach. Objective reality is that taiwan under the current republic constitution, it exists as a sovereign state. This is removing myself and looking at straight objective reality. I think they would agree. So i think that it is something that people on both sides of the political spectrum, within mains, would agree is whelped or that formulation comes from , the administration over the last four years of the Ai Administration would agree with that in one form or another. Reality,of objective when a u. S. Policy is based on a narrative, however useful that narrative may be, there is going to be room for fundament of misunderstandings and misconceptions which could truly that could lead to conflict on the roper that is one reason why in terms of trying to bring u. S. Policy in line with ups in line with this objective reality paired status quo is a loaded term, but it is the existence of two legitimate governments on both sides. Authoritarian regime that has evolved into a vibrant democracy. On the other you have the autocratic people of the republic of china, but taiwan has more in some ways sovereignty. The second reason i think a fundamental review may be warranted is if we are sincerely if we are sincere about creating the conditions for some sort of reinvigorated political dialogue on both sides, the u. S. Should assume the obligation to at least try to do that by sides, then both playing field. Just in terms of the International Political sense. When you see statements that come out after arms sales, giving taiwan more confidence to engage the other side, with statements like that. Thirdly, in terms of to his principles and our interests in our principles in terms of liberal democracies around the world, if you are in a zerosome we give legitimacy to the poc every day. The biggest victory ever in obtaining legitimacy was achieved probably with the signing of the 1979 treaty which completely withdrew diplomatic turn that over to the p. R. C. In termsine then, but of today, we have to look at this. In terms of policy options for there are in general four schools of thought. The first is accommodation, particularly in moving the lc more toward beijings policy of the onechina principal. Support some growing here in the d. C. Area. Hink now it has been come it has become significantly marginalized, a large part having to do with the actions in hong kong as well as the policies and flexible policies toward taiwan. The Second School of thought is by far the dominant one. And perhaps rightly so. The status quo of course is u. S. Policy, tempered to some extent by three joint communiques. The definition of a joint committee k is a statement of policy made in that particular time but has been reconfirmed by successive administrations. Policy,uo, u. S. General maintained in general for what we have done for quite a while, normalization is third school. Of thought. That is the breaking out of the u. S. One china policy, recognition in short order of taiwan. Taiwan, in terms of using that term. And completely getting out of the u. S. One china policy. It takes various forms. This has long had sway in the u. S. To some degree or another. The Fourth School of thought is one that could go by many names. It was actually, in some ways, a dominant line of thinking in the late 1950s, 1960s, perhaps all the way up to 1977. That would go by different names. One could use the term u. S. One china, it could be referred to as a soft balancing approach. This fourth option is one in which to one which one does not necessarily challenge that, it still moves toward a more stable relationship with taiwan as a government. Staying clear of the sovereignty issue, focusing more on balancing legitimacy. So it is legitimacy over sovereignty. These are the four schools of thought. So whether or not in my view that could guide u. S. Policy if there ever was to be a major review. Other things we should throw out there in terms of lastminute things to consider, in my view, i think there are serious considerations given to a joint statement between u. S. Senior u. S. Policymakers and those on taiwan. One could use the word joint communique, a loaded term. Automatically the thought goes back to the joint communique between the u. S. Prc in 1972. Theoretically i would say that uv u. S. Had a onechina policy in 1972, yet we still believed a joint communique would not be consistent with a onechina policy. Then we recognize the r. O. C. We did not do recognize that going back to the term a joint statement, why do we have a joint statement or committee k with any government around the world . Communique with any government around the world . The joint statement allows you to come up with fundamental interests that the public can communicate to your own constituencies. That is one. Number two, considering the chairman of ait, as they consistent secretary level or undersecretary level. He or she would be a chairperson. They would be consistent with. He one china policy along those lines, not make why not make the director a Senate Approved position . That is another consideration. Other things, in terms of looking at the fundament of structure of u. S. Taiwan ctf ns, there is the g on the Security Side we have moderate talks, we have the d rts, but there are other important Bilateral Committees that should be considered. For example, if we did make the therperson, either assistant secretary or under secretary, consider monitoring a Bilateral Committee on what we had with beijing with a highlevel mechanism of people to people talks. It is interesting because that would be people to people exchanges, Cultural Education exchanges, something to bring everything that we already had going on into one sort of form forum, and raising that to a higher level, to the attention it deserves. In terms ofsues taiwan, a senior Bilateral Committee on looking at supply chain security, and Defense Industrial cooperation. I can enter those details as needed. The Civil Society level, in my view, it makes a lot of sense to establish and populate and energize a National Committee on u. S. Taiwan relations. Again, modeled in part by the National Committee of u. S. China 19ations identified in 1965, 66. That is another concept. Finally, in my view, there should be an expansion at the Civil Society level, trilateral dialogues. Few, maybe ate a half a dozen. Looking at other potential partners. I would argue the first step would be why the philippines . Because they have an election coming up in another year and a half or two. Election integrity will be very important, and i think the Civil Society level, we can learn from taiwans experience, integrating taiwan into northeast asia, in terms of what we have going on between taiwan and the United States. Thank you very much. Fantastic, mark. As always, very forwardlooking, a lot of ideas that we can discuss in the q a. We have about 12 minutes for q a. There will be a microphone going around, so keep your hand up your it like to exercise the moderators prerogative at this point to key out a couple of questions before we get to the audience q a. I want to pick up on something that bonnie mentioned, and that is you basically provided an assessment that the likely reaction that beijing will have. What do you think it will take for beijing to fundamentally reassess taiwan policy . I think we struggle with this and we ask this question all the time. What will it take for beijing to understand the situation and perhaps change it perhaps change course . Bonnie one thing i did not talk about was the linkage between this issue and domestic politics in beijing, and i think there is a perception that this issue is related to legitimacy of the party and xi jinping personally. I think that is fundamentally what has to be addressed, that there cannot be a fundamental rethink of this policy toward taiwan in a more positive direction as long as there is what i believe the framework in beijing, the domestic political situation, that the leader of the party is very vulnerable. This is a sovereignty claim. I would go so far as to say that you really need to have radical systemin the political if you will. Evenany people argue that if there was democracy in mainland china, that there might still be a sort of rabid sense of ownership toward taiwan that this might not necessarily lead toward tolerance, toward the idea of selfdetermination in taiwan. So i think even that is a question mark, which is one of the reasons why i am pessimistic. Have a sense of what you think might robert you are asking what i think beijing what it will take for beijing to be nice to taiwan. I am worried about the opposite. I think we can look at it that way anyway. Russell the other point you brought up, bonnie, and i think this is an important one and i wanted to bring this up in the q a what is the future at this point . Is there a need for a responsible Opposition Party in having lostafter this election by quite a significant margin, what do you think is going to happen within that party and the future of that party . Bonnie i think it is a very important question. The kmp did wrong. The party list increased by three feet overall. But i think the real question is whether the party itself reforms, whether some of the older generation people move aside, make way for the younger generation, whether they try to redefine themselves as an indigenous party. There are younger people i have talked to in the kmp that would that may be a bridge too far in the immediate future. They have to figure out their policies. Of course, fundamentally have to examine what their policy is going to be Going Forward toward beijing. Are they simply going to stick to the 1992 consensus, or are they going to come up with new policies . If they do not revise the policy Going Forward, then i doubt that they will be able to have support. The most important thing is party reform and generational change. Russell with that, i will open it up for the audience q a. Please keep your hands up, wait for the mic. Put your name and affiliation, and please try to keep your comments and questions brief. Over here in the center . Maybe if you could just pass the microphone down. Thank you. Bonnie, you mentioned you predict beijing is more likely to go for a more tougher direction. Does that mean we are going to see a continuation of its current tactics, like purging chinas diplomatic allies, or becausesee new tactics the decision does not really work in chinas favor . Bonnie thank you for giving me the opportunity to allow for this to address this because i probably did not stress enough that i do think china will ratchet up pressure on taiwan. They have an evergrowing toolbox. One of the articles in global times over the weekend mentioned that there is a big policy toolbox in things that they can do. We have seen a great deal in the military, diplomatic area. I would not be surprised if they continue to go after those and maybe even lose them in the near term. I know taiwans foreign minister, as we speak, is traveling in guatemala. I dont know this for a fact, but i wonder if this reflects concern, that beijing is going to move very quickly to steal another of taiwans diplomatic partners. They will continue to do that. There is much more they can do in the military realm. One of the most notable things operating then to navy around taiwan, the march 31 yearsng, the first in 20 that there is a deep incursion across the centerline. I would look to the economic sphere. Beijing has not done very much to harm taiwans economy, with the exception of cutting the tourists. Taiwan has shown an ability to attract tourists from other countries. If china believes that poor Economic Performance will help prevent the dcp firm staying in power Going Forward, and there are other things that they can do to try to damage taiwans economy that also goes to what walter talked about earlier, thats what russell talked about earlier. Anyave not seen taiwan sign freetrade agreements in a while. Russell the gentleman over there in the hat. Dr. Thank you. Sean lynin. Early january in taiwan, i was just wondering if you could share your observation on what ,ind of impact this will be taiwans politics, what he calls additional fracture. Also, impacting the chinese coming is partys operation inside taiwan. The antidemonstration act anyone want to take that . I tend to focus more on u. S. Policy than the implications of taiwan itself. Russell without getting into the substance of the think there are concerns within the Opposition Party that the legislation, whereparty that the legislation, where it targets such exchanges, that it considers to be legitimate, cross rate exchanges. However, dubious such activities may be however dubious such activities may be. Legislation, it appears at least from public reporting about the legislation that it will provide more enforcement a deterrent bybe increasing fines and even imprisonment. Of violations of that act. So i think again, the key will be enforcement, and that will effective such legislation will be. Going forward. Ok. I am peter humphrey, an Intelligence Analyst and former diplomat. Is it really necessary for lowerlevel Foreign Service officers to resign from the Foreign Service before they get closer to taiwan . That is a question for you, bonnie. Second of all, very concerned about the fact that taiwan represents a gap in Network Systems is there a way at all that we could integrate taiwans andrs with our radars japans radars . Is there any way we can track with a continuous acoustic profile rather than this huge interruption that is represented by taiwan . Interaction question. Question, your latter i am there are some views that are really more than technical questions are the question is political will. Clearly, if we wanted to Network Systems like the radar and taiwan with other Missile Defense capabilities, we could do that. Politicalre always questions. On your first question, there is a longstanding set of things that the United States has done as a matter of practice that are not things that were ever written into law, and of course one of those is what the Foreign Service officers have to do. For a time, military officers had to do so temporarily, but they no longer do. Temporarily. Other officials from taiwan are really still not able to go on a regular basis into the state department. These are all things that could be easily changed. So it is simply a matter of practice, not a matter of law. And i think that there is a strong argument to be made for be they should no longer adhered to. These are things that hamper our ability to implement our policies and do what is necessary for american interests. So there is a long list of things in that category, so i would share with you on that. Weof the restrictions that have our selfimposed, and they included in the past, we forcingange on not Service Officers to resign. Butect me if i am wrong, there used to be restrictions on Duty Officers being assigned and that has changed. Bonnie i think youre probably right. Mark but there are still plenty of restrictions that are there. They are imposed based on announcer we will have to leave this last few minutes of the discussion on taiwan and china to fulfill our longtime commitment to bring you live gaveltogavel house coverage. You can continue watching this event from the Heritage Foundation online at cspan. Org. Right now, to the u. S. House. The speaker pro tempore the house will be in order. The chair lays before the house a communication from the speaker. The clerk the speakers rooms, washington, d. C. January 13, 2020. I hereby appoint the honorable henry c. Johnson jr. To act as speaker pro tempore on this day. Signed, nancy pelosi, speaker of the house of representatives. The speaker pro tempore pursuant to the order of the house of january 7, 2020, the chair will now recognize members fromliesed submitted by the from theliesed submitted by the majority and minority leaders for morning hour debate. The chair will alternate recognition between the parties with time equally allocated