Host Leah Askarinam here with us, the editorinchief of the national journal, hotline, to talk about the core implications of impeachment. Lets talk about the tone, and did it change the tone of campaign 2020, the Impeachment Vote in the house . Guest i dont think it changed the tone, but it added a new vessel for the tone that has already been established. We heard throughout the entire campaign, especially from the republicans, that this is a that 2020 is going to be a referendum on health care, and we heard from democrats that this is going to be a referendum on donald trump. That has not changed. What has changed is now in addition to the republicans using socialism as an attack, they can also now use impeachment. We have seen republicans spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in Congressional Districts, targeting vulnerable democrats hoping that because these voters , supported donald trump in 2016, that they will oust anyone voting to impeach him. Host so they are truly vulnerable . Guest they were vulnerable before impeachment, they will be vulnerable after impeachment. They took a calculated risk in supporting impeachment. Whether or not that changes voters minds remains to be seen. I think republicans are betting that Donald Trumps support is so critical for most republican elected officials. It is hard to win a primary and even a general election without supporting donald trump if you are a republican. With democrats, it is a little bit more foggy because what we found in 2018 is that democrats, not embracing donald trump, but not really criticizing him either in order to win reelection. They are seeming impartial and trying to stay away from the political fray, or is it an example of them going along with partisan lines . That is the debate. Host are democrats spending enough money, or by comparison, how much are they spending on defending democrats against those charges . Guest most republican enthusiasm, and therefore money, surrounds donald trump. Donald trump is the best fundraiser for the Republican Party, and he is the best at creating enthusiasm among the Republican Party. In the democratic side it is different because there is not a clear leader. There is not a barack obama is no longer president. So a lot of the enthusiasm in the house is surrounding a lot of the enthusiasm for democrats stems from the Democratic Congressional committee that helps protect democratic incumbents and elects new democrats. It is doing well financially. But outside groups are going in especially republican outside groups and targeting these districts in a way that democrats have not totally responded to. We have seen Mike Bloomberg come in with his own efforts to try to combat the republican outside money coming in. It is also possible that the democratic kind of overall voter enthusiasm effort, the entire Voter Mobilization effort in places like georgia and texas could have the effect of combating some of those some of that messaging just by turning out voters. But in terms of the actual impeachment messaging, republicans at this point have a financial advantage. Host everything you just said had to be part of the calculation that the congressman van drew made before switching from democrat to republican and opposing articles of impeachment. Guest absolutely. He had been a long sought after democratic recruit. I think that him changing parties is definitely a moral kind of low to democrats. But in terms of the actual house majority, the calculation has not really changed for democrats since his switch. We saw internal polling that shows that in his district it would be tough for him to win a primary if you were going to oppose impeachment, and that looks like probably the number one reason he switched parties. But now he is going after the general election when he has already been attacked by republicans for the last year. Connecting him to socialism, trying to connect him to voting against donald trump, and now they have to flipflop on that messaging. Whether or not that is effective remains a big question. Host here is congressman van drew the white house yesterday with the president switching parties. I guess what im saying is this is a benefit for me. This is who i am. The blue dog democrats, conservative democrats, i think that is going away. Two more things i want to say. One, you have my undying support. Pres. Trump thank you very much. And by the way, same way. Thank you. Pres. Trump i am endorsing him. [laughter] we are endorsing him. I cannot speak for these two gentlemen, but i am endorsing him. How do you feel about that . Thank you. The last thing i will say, one of my heroes, i have a bipartisan wall. I have a lot of different people on there. Ronald reagan. When he said, i did not leave my party, my party left me. Host talk about the optics of that, with all the folks sitting around, and a day after the president is impeached, he has congressman van drew in the oval office. Guest van drews argument is that democrats no longer have a place for moderate voters, which is a huge win for republicans in terms of messaging. They will connect every democrat running for reelection in 2020, including all these democrats who ran as moderates, some who opposed nancy pelosi as speaker, tying them all to the furthest left wing of the Democratic Party. This is an example of an actual democrat agreeing with that sentiment. That said, van drew is not necessarily representative of the Democratic Party, and i think there is something to be said for politicians who waver. They are making a really big political gamble. We have seen that with politicians over and over again who decide to tow the line or switch sides. They do end up facing a little peril later. We have seen that in West Virginia with jim justice, with impeachment hearings, with tulsa gabbard. When she voted, present, instead of taking a side. Sometimes it hurts to waiver then just pick a side. Sometimes it hurts more to wa ver, than to pick a side. Host we want to get your thoughts on campaign 2020. Republicans here is President Trumps analysis of where the Republican Party stands after impeachment. The Republican Party has never been so affronted but never so united as they are now. Their the senators and great guys and women to eared we have some great women, great guys, great people. They love this country. They are going to do the right thing. They are going to do the right thing. So i said in my letter to pelosi i love that usually there is 1, 2. I have said it for a long time. The democrats are lousy politicians. They have horrible policies, open borders, crime is fine, drugs pouring through. Think of what they do. Sanctuary cities. They Love Sanctuary cities. They are lousy politicians, but they have two things they are the most vicious people. The republicans are not as vicious. They may learn to be vicious after going through this stuff. The other thing, democrats always stick together. Think of this three democrats , went over to our side. No republicans, it is unheard of. By the way, this is for 100 years. I am not just talking about this little point in time. The republicans are known as it is always harder to stick together. These people agree. We have a great Republican Party. Host President Trump at his rally in michigan, giving his assessment of where the Republican Party stands. How does impeachment help democrats politically . Guest President Trump is correct that republicans are not more united than they have been since he has entered office. When he is not saying is that democrats are also as united as they were ever. In the last decade at this point. What we are seeing is just increased polarization from this entire impeachment inquiry. So republicans are putting on their jerseys, democrats are putting on theirs, and in some districts that will help republicans and in some it will help democrats. It depends on where it is geographically. It depends on whether it is suburban, urban, or rural. So it is not a clear win for either side i think democrats had very little room to grow in terms of unity because donald trump is president. The same way republicans were united when barack obama was president. Nothing will unite you more than a common enemy. In that sense, i can see that maybe democrats had already reached their potential, whereas republicans needed that kind of boon to get them united. Impeachment did give that to them. Host lets get to a caller. Paula in texas, democratic caller, you are first. Caller good morning. I love cnn. I love how you keep us informed. Host cspan, paula, cspan. Caller im sorry. I love you and i am just honest. I know you are talking on one of my favorite subjects. That is the crookedness of donald trump. It is sad to see how the republicans are so doggone crooked. They do not want to do anything for this man. He is dirty. You all have a blessed day and merry christmas. Host crooked, that message. Does it resonate . The Democratic Base may like that, but what about the independents . Guest that is a big question. Right now there is a segment of the country that is totally on Donald Trumps side, or donald trump can do nothing wrong. There is a side of the country where democrats, among the democrats base, donald trump can do nothing right, and then there are swing voters and they are going to be the ones who end up deciding the election. What we sometimes forget is that elections are not decided by a National Popular vote, they are decided by sometimes a few thousand voters in michigan and wisconsin. So what side do those voters take . Do they think donald trump is crooked, and is that enough . Even if they do think he is, is that enough to boot him out of office . We will have a democratic candidate at some point for president , and that will help answer that question. Is the alternative that democrats end up producing in the nomination better than donald trump, whether or not voters personally like donald trump . Host what does it mean when you have, nationally, a base election, as one of the headlines alluded to, after impeachment . It is the base that turns out. What does it mean then you touch on it a little bit for districts for house seats, and for senate seats . Guest it depends on the district. That is why the house is kind of nebulous right now. Republicans need to pick up 20 seats in order to win the majority, which is tough. What makes the Senate Voters what makes the senate so competitive as they are base voters in colorado, where cory gardner is going to be up for reelection, there are base voters in maine, where the candidate Susan Collins has branded herself as a moderate. Can she do that when the base is so fired up . We have the same questions about even Martha Mcsally in arizona and thom tillis in north carolina. Base voters there, especially in urban areas, and also suburban voters who came out en masse in every 2019 special and gubernatorial election, they could swing all of those states and prevent some republicans Susan Collins, who has always been able to whether these political storms. Can they do that when the Democratic Base is so fired up . And the popular vote in maine does tend to be for democrats. Host explain for our viewers how Many Republican senators are for are up for reelection versus democrats. Guest this year is completely different. In 2018 the democrats were on defense. We talked over and over again about democrats running for reelection in trump states. About half ended up winning reelection. This year it is the opposite, republicans are on the defense and only two republican senators represent states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Both are up for reelection in 2020. Republics are also on defense in north carolina, arizona, iowa. Two seats now in georgia. Democrats need to defend michigan, which is going to be it might depend on the president ial outcome, but i think what gets lost is democrats do have the most vulnerable senator, which is doug jones in alabama. If we are taking into account doug jones and the possibility of him losing, democrats need to pick up probably five seats. Others throughout the rest of the country in order to make up for that loss and control of the and win control of the senate in 2020. Host possible pickups are cory gardner, north carolina, thom tillis . Guest arizona, maine, georgia. To be fair, there is a possibility texas will enter the conversation. I am still skeptical, but it is possible if you talk to strategists and republicans in texas as well. There will probably be a day where texas is a competitive state. We have seen a precursor of that from beto orourke. He showed what an 80 Million Campaign can do. Getting that extra 2 , it will it be another 80 million . Probably not . It is probably waiting for the state to change a little bit more or boosting democratic votes. Which is what deb beto orourke that it is not running for senator president he is spending , his time boosting voter turnout in texas, which could affect the statehouse and the senate and Congressional Districts there. Host back to calls. Peter from florida, independent. Caller thank you for taking my call. You guys are the best. Just some observations. I think the democrats in the house have been a complete failure. Just want to give you three examples. Three weeks ago, the democrats and the cr, the great democrats for freedoms. They rubberstamp extending the patriot act. The Democratic Base voters i talked to have no idea they did that. Last week the democrats put 738 billion into trump war budget. 132 billion would combat homelessness and pay for college. Wait until the midterms. The only thing nancy pelosi i believe was truly terrified of, if she would have been forced by aoc to have a nonbinding vote, who in the house is for medicare for all and who is not . The democrats were terrified because their corporate leadership would be all primary and have a good chance. And nobody in the media brings this up. Host lets talk about what he is bringing up. The Democratic Party opposes and what they support and how that could be used against them. Guest there are strong divisions in the Democratic Party that get glossed over. The reason is because, again, there is so much big stuff going on, that some of this gets lost. Of course, we talking about impeachment in the democratic primary, but also it is unified opposition to donald trump, that tends to gloss over these divisions. But even though in some ways it unifies House Democrats, it can also hurt them, these legislative accomplishments or failures, depending on each way on which way you are looking at this. That they are being overlooked. Democrats are campaigning on the idea that they can walk and chew gum at the same time. You have probably heard that phrase a million times for a million different democrats. They are trying to prove that they can hold donald trump accountable but also pass legislation. That is where you get the policy debates. Even last night on the debate stage when it comes to trade, when it comes to foreign policy, these are just divisions that do not get a lot of attention when democrats have a bigger goal in mind. That is beating trump. Defeating trump. Host or attention from republicans. Because for the house and the senate yesterday, to pass that 1. 4 trillion spending agreement, it took both sides. There are things in that spending package that democrats and republicans philosophically do not agree with. Yet there is the president , who will sign it today, and the house passes the trade agreement with mexico and canada or the senate is likely to pass that in the new year, and the president will sign that. Guest i get questions all the time about when something actually does go through, which might not happen a lot, but does this help democrats or republicans more . In a way, it generally helps both of them because it allows them to talk about the things that they actually want to talk about instead of the things they are not doing. We talk about the trade deal, the usmca. That is huge for House Democrats, especially in iowa. There are two vulnerable House Democrats in that state, one republican. For them, they get to come back to their districts at christmas for the holidays and tell them that they were able to get something through that was not impeachment that helps iowa farmers, in their opinion. But then joni ernst also gets to come back and she will be a vulnerable republican senator in iowa, and she gets to tell her constituents that same thing. That she is republican has poet the president and is delivering for iowa and is therefore not entitled to partisan interest. Host and newspapers report this morning that House Democratic members and Senate Democratic members who have never voted for a trade agreement who are on board with this usmca. David, from michigan, democratic caller. Caller real quick, john james got beat pretty readily by debbie stabenow, so i am not too worried about gary peters. He has represent in michigan pretty well as far as a republican taking over, i am not worried about john james. But my thing is, the gentleman that switched sides isnt he looking at i mean, if i was a new jersey democrat, i would be wanting to recall him. I voted for a democrat. It just seems a disadvantage on his part. I think he said something earlier, that most people do suffer when they do this. This is like, why would you do that . And nancy pelosi is a badass. Thank you. Host do you know if he can be recalled, or can he switch parties . Guest Jeff Van Drew can switch parties he will still face opposition from his own party. He will face republican primary. The Republican Party has forums before he joined this race. There is a question whether he wins the republican nomination. I think he will have Institutional Support now because he has Donald Trumps endorsement, which will help him. But voters can only take that endorsement it only holds so much sway, which we have seen as trump has tried to endorse the Alabama Senate in 2017. That endorsement did not help. We saw that in a couple of the governors races in 2019. It is still possible that Jeff Van Drew loses that primary. I do not want to make any predictions because it is way too early to know. Democrats can lose Jeff Van Drews Congressional District in 2020 and still keep their majority. That is not going to be one of their priorities. They will be more focused on their offense in the texas suburbs and protecting democratic incumbents. The voters in new jersey are probably divided in their own ways. It is a district that donald trump carried. There is not one single factor that will decide any of these questions. Host and a lot of attention was paid to those 31 democrats in districts where trump won in 2016. Are they all vulnerable where President Trump won in 2016 . It is possible that the democrats could lose those 31 districts. Guest i think a lot of them are vulnerable. Republicans need to pick up 20 seats. Those 31 districts and i guess now it might be 30 with Jeff Van Drew being a republican those are divided into two sections. One half of those 30 districts are districts that are suburban, that previously supported mitt romney and that may be trump received a lower share of the vote in 2016 than romney did in 2012, but he still carried the district. Those are districts that are trending away from republicans. The other 15 of those are districts trending toward republicans. Districts that barack obama carried in 2012, and the White Working Class districts that we talk about over and over again in the 2016 election. Those are the most vulnerable members. The ones representing those obama trump voters. But republicans are probably going to win some of those, but, i mean, winning all of them it is a tough seat, and and especially when republicans have to spend their resources on a defensive effort with vulnerable incumbents in places like texas and omaha, and all over the country where the suburbs that have previously been pretty safe for republicans are now trending toward democrats. Host and is Anthony Brindisi in that group of 15 . Guest he is in a district in new york for her he is one of the most vulnerable in terms of actual districts. In terms of his race, the race he will be facing, that is a much different question. Voters tend to he has a record in the state that he has tried to highlight that shows him parting with the Democratic State party of new york, which is probably how he got how he won the election in 2018 as a freshman. He also will likely be facing a former congresswoman from that district in 2018. Sometimes, rematches work. Sometimes, rematches dont work. She has lost the district before. She has won the district before. Host he is facing pressure from outside groups running ads in his district. This is from the American Action network. The impeachment showdown went live. Anthony brindisi ignored us and voted to impeach the president. A charade to let the washington elites decide the election. It is to stop ignoring the issues we care about. Tell him enough with the partisan games. Get to work on the issues that matter to us. Host Leah Askarinam with us. What do you make of that kind of ad . Guest that is a great question. One that democrats and republicans like the answer to. That is similar to the 2018 effort. Some republicans are concerned about this effort in trying to connect people like Anthony Brindisi and other vulnerable democrats to nancy pelosi, to the idea of the squad. The reason i got elected, voters dont see them that way. There is a question of whether it is an authentic ad or whether it is a political game. Either way, connecting him to democrats should help republicans in that district and the fact that he ended up voting for impeachment might be more important. Host we will go to michael in illinois. Republican. Caller i voted for trump. I was in service at the end of the vietnam war. I am a senior and disabled. I voted for trump because i wanted to drain the swamp, which was the old popular comment about this nonsense that goes on in washington. I want your guest to comment and it has been touched on already more specifically, if any thinking person, how they cannot see that these people in congress are only there to fill their own pockets. I dont know how someone can claim to be a democrat or this and that and they switch parties, like that one fellow, or the gal who voted present she actually said, i believe he is guilty but i wont vote against him. [laughter] this is where i want you to comment and focus. I am so disillusioned. I keep looking for someone to be honest and to put the country ahead of their own greed and selfinterest and i have been totally unsuccessful in finding anybody like that. Explain that to me. Guest that is an interesting question. I am glad you called in because you are one of the voters i am very interested in. A lot of voters did decide to vote for trump, we think, because they wanted a change. It was not necessarily a vote for the Republican Party. It was a vote for shaking things up. Because of this perception that washington is corrupt. That is where the democratic primary becomes interesting. In the democratic primary, there is a notion that trump voters would not support someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders because they are too progressive. These are also the candidates trying to shake up the system. That is a big question ahead of 2020, whether trump voters are going to who may be previously voted for obama, maybe not traditional republican voters, other they are more likely to support somebody like joe biden, who comes off as more moderate but has been in the political spotlight for a decade or somebody like Bernie Sanders who is more progressive. He is also somebody who wants to shake up the system, which is something so many voters wanted in 2016. I do not know the answer to that question yet but that kind of question will be one of the many factors that decides the 2020 election for president and may be a whole bunch of these house seats as well. Host jackie in north carolina, independent. Caller watching the candidates last night and how they talked about trump being bad, it shows how much the democrats are not in touch with the american people. I heard them say 60,000 was a middleclass amount of money. It is not. They want taxpayers to pay for reparation. They want us to pay for their campaigning. They are just not in touch. We want to get rid of trump because, like they say, he is shaking things up, like your guest said. It is very sad. Our household makes less than 35,000 and that is when both of us were working and i am out of work so we are living on a minimal amount of money and they want to keep taxing us and i they talk about taxing the rich but it is only the middle class they are talking about taxing. We have no health care. We were charged 4000 because of obamacare. The 4000 could have gotten us something. Instead, i do not know whose pocket it went into, but it did not go into ours. If we are paying money for people who are Getting Health Care off of medicaid and medicare where do we stand . , guest you are tapping into a big question about the role of health care in the economy. Economy. Care and the there are two issues where, if you watch the president ial democratic debate last night, one of those battles between does it help more to say you are paying less in premiums but you are paying less in taxes or more in taxes. It is a complex issue. I think the economy, in general, is a tough issue for democrats heading into 2020 because in general, if you look at the indicators, the economy seems to be doing pretty well. But if you talk about how Everyday Americans are feeling, there is a different reality on the ground. Whether individuals in places where manufacturing factories have closed down. What we have seen in the democratic primary the Democratic Candidates who ran for office in 2018, was trying to focus on that as their number one issue all throughout the primary, all throughout the midterm elections. They give themselves credit for winning the majority. Based on talking solely about health care and the way it affects americans pocketbooks. I think democrats want to do that again in 2020. I think some republicans, especially republicans who are in districts who are not super supportive of donald trump, would like to do the same thing. But with impeachment and the everyday chaos of washington, it is hard to know whether or not by november 2020, that will be one of the issues dominating the president ial campaign or house or senate campaign. Host lets talk about Cathy Mcmorris rodgers. Craig kaplan, our capitol hill producer, tweeted, the house ethics committee, after a fiveyear review, has determined she has misused taxpayer dollars and has to reimburse the u. S. Treasury in the amount of 7575. 95. The report concluded the represented provided in private conversation for Consultant Services and it included paying consultants from local committees using official resources and Campaign Resources for her efforts to land a house leadership position. She is no longer in leadership. Is she vulnerable . Guest thats a good question. When we talk about candidates in office who have ethics issues, it always puts them into the realm of vulnerable. She was on the edge of the 2018 debate about whether or not she could be vulnerable. She ended up on the fringes. Was not one of the main targets. We have seen over and over again that even people in congress who have been indicted, people who have gone to jail for financial reasons, do win elections. Duncan hunter had his own issues. A republican in california. We had the same thing in new york with a republican. Who easily won reelection. It is way too soon to say whether one of these violations would really change. Host Duncan Hunter has pled guilty and is resigning his seat. He did not vote on impeachment. He was asked not to vote before he steps down. Democratic caller caller good morning to both of you. As democrats, we really need to get out of this delusional state of mind. I am looking at 40 districts that we can lose easily. We need to focus on two things, the white house and the senate. Trump is packing these courts. They flipped the 3rd district. If he gets four more years, they will flip the ninth. Ruth bader ginsburg, she cannot last. Mcconnell will force another nominee. Joe biden, he has to address this. He cannot say, it is not true. He has to have a good answer for that because he is the only one who can beat trump. None of these other candidates can beat trump. Host a lot to chew on. Guest electability is what you are hitting on. The question is whether joe biden is the best candidate to take on donald trump if democrats want to win the white house. Joe biden has been campaigning on that message. Probably the number one reason he has been leading in the polls. Are democrats going to use the lessons of 2018 to win the white house in 2020 . What democrats learned in 2018, running candidates who did not have political baggage. Many of these Democratic House freshmen this year are people who were previously in the cia or in the armed services, they were not career politicians. That helped democrats when the win the majority with the swing voters. Joe biden is an anomaly because he is seen as the most electable by Many Democrats even though he has been in the public eye for decades. In some ways, him being in the public eye inoculates him from attacks, which is why he has been so steady. People know who joe biden is. A gaffe in a debate or a particular item in his record being brought up is not going to hurt him because voters already know about it. On the other hand, does somebody who is younger, less of a record, who has been on the stage for less time even somebody like Bernie Sanders who has been in office for a long time but has only been in the National Political spotlight for a few years is that somebody who has a better chance of beating donald trump . That is a huge question we do not yet know the answer to. Host woodbridge, illinois, republican. Caller i would like to make a few comments. I would like to ask your guest to comment. On this ukraine, about russia, wasnt it in the newspaper that a Ukraine Court found several ukraines guilty of meddling in the 16 election . I forgot about number two. Number three, this is why it i would like for her to comment this is what i would like for to comment on. A representative from hawaii voted. There is an effort problem. Isnt it a conflict of interest for these five candidates running against President Trump and casting a vote to throw him out of office isnt that the same thing they are accusing him of . Host senators running will be the jury and impeachment. Guest that is a good question. Senators who are running for reelection who are running for president , their number one concern is that they will not be able to spend time in iowa. They will be spending their time in washington trying to locate this impeachment trial. It is one of the many reasons why the democrats want this process to go quickly. So they can give back to their campaigns. Host remind viewers when they come back from the holiday break, it is january 6. The iowa caucus in january 27. Everything begins that week. Guest exactly. We have had this whole long runway. That is the chance for people at joe biden to really solidify his standing in iowa while everybody else is in washington. It has surprised Amy Klobuchar more than anyone else. Because she did have a breakout performance last night and democratic debates. She has been going slow and steady and climbing. She needs this breakout time but does she have time . Are people going to be watching politics over christmas, over new years . There will not be much time for her when she gets back to try to stand out from the pack. Host right after iowa, the New Hampshire primary, the first week in february. Following through the 12th of february allies will be on New Hampshire for that time as well. Leah askarinam, hotline editor in chief, we appreciate the conversation with you this morning. Thank you very much. Thank you cspans washington journal life every day with news and policy issues that impact you. Peter bergen joins us to talk about his book, trump and his generals, the cost of chaos. Then cns news. Com editorinchief Terry Jeffries discusses the rising federal deficit and efforts to reduce the national debt. Watch live at 7 00 eastern monday morning. Watch arthurs week featuring authors from across the put go spectrum on key Public Policy issues all week, beginning at 8 00 eastern on cspans washington journal. Washington journal mugs are available at cspans new online store. Check out the washington journal mugs and see all of the cspan products. Host joining us on newsmakers is ellen weintraub. She is the chair of the federal election commission. Joining us here for the questioning is maggie severns, reporter for politico. And michelle ye hee lee, who covers money and politics for the washington post. To both of you, thanks for being with us. Chairman weintraub, thank you for joining us. Let me begin with the enforcement mechanism that the fec has. You do not have a quorum. You do not have a majority. So what type of authority, what type of power do you have in enforcing fec laws . Chair weintraub well, the laws will be enforced, they are just not going to be enforced right now. There is a five year statute of limitations. No one should be under any illusions that if they do something now because of a lack of quorum, there will not be any