For political future, and a fabulous teacher. He advised president george w. Bush and recently served as a Senior Advisor to New Hampshire governor chris sununu. My friend mike murphy, veteran of five president ial campaigns, and numerous campaigns for senators and governors, including Arnold Schwarzenegger and mitt romney. Patrick, i will begin with a question. We will start with you. A lot of critics think New Hampshire, with its lack of diversity, should never be the first primary state. What is your response to that . Will this everchanging . Ever change . My response is it will never change. There is a great amount of hostage taking, malfeasance, hold ups, anything but cash changing hands, in order to keep New Hampshire first. I say that with great respect. I think there is an important part of the New Hampshire primary, but more than anything, why is there a New Hampshire . Because New Hampshire says so at this point. They simply will not give this primary up. They have enacted legislation to keep it. They have fought with iowa. The long rates there shall be law reads there shall be no the 70s before and after the contest. Seven days before and after the contest. The 70s before and the secretary of state runs things in New Hampshire with an iron fist. He is good about making sure he was prepared to hold the election new years eve or valentines day to make sure New Hampshire goes first. Injury is extremely homogenized. It does not look like america. It is largely white. It is frankly not as conservative on the republican side as it could be, and it is not as liberal on the democratic side. The Largest Group of voters in New Hampshire are independent voters. That needs on election day, you can poll a ballot from either party. The basis of both parties have an opportunity to vote after being organized, as one woman said in a focus group, i never worked for a candidate i havent danced with at least twice. It is a small state. 1. 3 5 million people. You can drive the length and width of the state easily. It makes for great television, because there are high snowbanks and everyone gets to have a bean jacket and everyone looks like they are on a camping trip. The optics are great. But New Hampshire does not look like america. It will not let go, and it forces people like joe biden to trudge through and put up with what he is going through. Having a runner is tough time in a new poll today. It means members of congress, u. S. Senators, governors who are famous have to do a bit having a tough time of scraping with the locals and practice retail politics. Somehow we believe that makes them a better candidate. The short answer to your question after all that, i dont think it changes. I think the press is in love with covering New Hampshire. Part of it is tradition. The other piece is that humiliation factor that even the strongest candidates are put through, standing on a snow bank and answer the fifth question about the International Monetary fund patiently. It is not easy. [laughter] the criticisms of New Hampshire are completely legit. I am about as bought in to the system as possible. I am someone who went to college in des moines the cousin the Iowa Caucuses. Of the Iowa Caucuses. I am about as biased as you can be on New Hampshire. I say that as a journalist. The criticisms are legit. They are not divers states. They are largely rural states in a time where america is becoming increasingly urban. It frames the conversation around issues that may not be as relevant to most americans. Yes, we were expecting record high turnout in the democratic primary. That would be about a quarter million people, 275. In terms of perspective, it has an outside influence. The criticisms are real. What bothers me about the conversation is you will hear me say this a lot tonight as opposed to what . That is what we should be talking about. We can talk about the analyst criticisms endless criticisms, but a couple dates matter. 1960 matters. Out of the progressive era, we decided these private clubs that are political parties, we should open that up more. We started having primary elections. It doesnt often matter much. The three states that start of the process in New Hampshire the process, New Hampshire was not first. You elected delegates. You did not elect president s. 1952 in the in modern era of the primary, when you did elect president s. Some candidates campaigned. Another important date is 1968, particularly the democratic primary. You may know your history, the famous chicago convention. Lets remember what happened. In New Hampshire, lbj was reduced to 60 of the vote. He won, but mccarthy got close to 40 . As a result, two weeks later, lbj said he would accept the nomination. He wouldnt pursue or accept the nomination. Happened in that 1968. Only 14 states hold primaries then. They would trudge through. Bobby kennedy got in the race. Idea is thesehe candidates were not the person to be nominated. They said it could never happen again. As opposed to what . They still decided Vice President humphrey was going to take over. They changed it again. Into 1976, we will create iowa and New Hampshire. We will let the people decide. Now every state gets involved. As opposed to what . Party insiders who are not represented at all . Jimmy carter, the one person who created this mythology that you can be this random person, the peanut farmer from georgia , and be elected. Here is where we are today, that New Hampshire is still iowa is still first. Their clout has diminished. They may remain first, but we are witnessing the most nationalized president ial primary season we have seen in the modern creation of the last 40 years of this latest information. Consider the latest iteration. In the last dnc debate, there were 20 qualifying polls. 12 were national polls, which were completely irrelevant. I just wanted to have these polls count. Why are we calling people in kansas . It does not take place in texas. New hampshire may persist. The clout is diminishing. I share the skepticism of having two really white states pick our president. I think there are two things that buffer it. After iowa and New Hampshire, you have South Carolina and nevada. South carolina has a Large Population of africanamerican voters. Nevada has a growing population of latino voters. Beyond that, i grew up in pennsylvania and lived in california for more than 20 years. Large states where campaigns are run on tv. Going to New Hampshire and singing barack obama or mitt romney or whoever 20 feet away from you talking to real people, you would never see that in california. It makes the candidates even if they have the most money it next them talk to voters. The voters relish their duty of asking tough questions of these candidates. Chance toves a candidates that dont have money. 2008 campaigne took place in california, would that result be possible . Obam wasa able to meet voters and generate excitement and pulling off a surprise win that gave other people in the country this allwhite state is willing to vote for an africanamerican man for president. I dont know you could have that in a large state. Ive got about an hour on this. [laughter] it is an arms race here. I agree with seema. If you take the first four, iowa caucus, New Hampshire, South Carolina and nevada that four is the lever on the process. It becomes pretty diverse. You get christian conservatives hugevangelicals, you get a africanamerican vote in the South Carolina primary. If you club them together, both regionally and diversity, pretty balanced. The other way is totally nationalized it. The promise nationalize it. The more popular you are, the better you do. This lets a smaller candidate crack the thing and get momentum. I disagree with james. I think they will be influential. What i agree is it has become nationalized, but the states upon which the National Contest is mostly played is the last 60 days in the iowa caucus, then the eight days later in New Hampshire through the nevada caucus into South Carolina. They are not as isolated as before, but they are still the voters that count 100 times more than any of us. Let me be clear when we get to the voting, they could be hugely important. I am talking about the process with which we get there. And the qualifying. If you dont win in these states, you are done. I want to turn from whether New Hampshire is ideal or not, because i dont think it is ever going to change. New hampshire and iowa are both arguably gravel arguably both battleground states. Just dont think it is going to move. I want to handicap the nature primary as of today, first about how much trouble biden is in. He just fell into third place in a new cnn poll at 15 . Is warnings is warrens momentum going to be the same and sanders repeat of 2016 . Sanders one with 22 won with 22 of the margin. The largest margin of victory since jfk. It is huge. He started with such a head start. He has an enormous Steering Committee that was actively meeting each month, beginning in 2017. A lot of that energy is now going to other people. He is still very much in the game. There is no question. This is a state, despite the ups and downs, is framed as a staged as a state that either warren or Bernie Sanders is going to win. That said, iowa could likely have someone who is elevated if that person is not warren or sanders. That person will be a major contender coming into the state. What happened to biden . Biden started out by hacking conventional wisdom by being famous enough to have a National League in early polls lead in early polls. They are like a noise meter on last weeks media coverage. Because biden was famous, that was his initial advantage. I would bribe media pollsters. For pressthe tempo coverage and Everything Else. Once you get to the iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, the buttigiegs, the warrens can show up and start to sell tickets. Biden has had the burden of being front runner in the competitive markets where people slowly know about candidates, he is not faring as well. Iowaden finishes third in but doesnt win ihe is supposed to be superman, but if you cant lift a locomotive there is room for someone else to come racing into New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, you have a big independent vote. Iran mccain i ran mccains campaign. We were competitive. It was not that close. With independence who crossed over. I see a lot of volvos in the parking lot. You suggested buttigieg is not only surging in iowa, but has real potential in New Hampshire. I think this is a game of expectations. This narrative takes a while to play out. The media covers places like iowa and New Hampshire early. Our Attention Spans today are different because of this. In the days before we could instantaneously receive not only the news we wanted to hear, we could sort which means we wanted to believe. We filter a lot of this stuff. The expectation game gets dragged out over a long time. Starts after the election, who makes the first visit to iowa and New Hampshire . Crowdple, that is a big for someone who has never been famous before. Compare it to what happened three years ago. I dont want to play that game. New hampshire is a bit of an enigma. We like to think of the person who talks like i just spoke of. That is not New Hampshire is anymore. Most of those in southern New Hampshire are people who work and live in massachusetts. Read the globe, the largest selling newspaper in New Hampshire. [laughter] it is a very different place. New hampshire was always a place that cherished its independence. The independent called the shots. They hated democrats. They loved republicans, except the republicans they hated. That has changed. The influence of newspapers as a medium has changed. More importantly, the influence of expectations doesnt, which is why murphy and i talk about this a lot. Iowa begets New Hampshire. I dont want to use your exactly which your exact language. New hampshire has one job, to screw iowa after the Iowa Caucuses. They tend to set things right. Iowa picks corns, New Hampshire takes precedence. They will have a caucus picks president s. You have to wrestle with somebody to get to join your team. The expectation is, coming out of iowa, you have to get three tickets. New hampshire laned it down to two. That has changed. The conventional wisdom is different. Does anybody think Bernie Sanders is going anywhere in this race if he doesnt win iowa and New Hampshire . Bernie is making 1 million a week in small dollar traditions. Dollar donations. It is a comfortable way to go. Bernie is a conscience of the Democratic Party. Bernie is watching Elizabeth Warren and joe biden like a hawk. Joe biden has a different problem, expectations. Hes famous. Hes got to do well. Doesconventional wisdom ishfinished second, fin second, third . Does Pete Buttigieg become famous enough where he is the narrative for the next new iteration for the Republican Party . Democrat. Of got republicans on my mind. Sorry about that. Democrats tend to like someone who is about tomorrow. They have always been that. President kennedy we will go to the moon because we can. Passing the torch to a new generation. What happened to that . The last time the Democratic Party nominated someone older than the monument in washington. They will do it again with jill biden if he manages to be dragged across the finish line. Whoever winslem, in mostly white iowa and New Hampshire is going to run into energy cultural demographic buzz saw in seven South Carolina in South Carolina. Africanamerican voters are not a problem for Elizabeth Warren. They are are a problem for Elizabeth Warren. They are not a problem for joe biden. We can talk about pete. Elizabeth warren only got a sentence here, yet she seems to be emerging. Seema you have seen her on the trail, there is a lot of momentum at her events. People are showing up for four hours to get selfies. Her organizations are strong. They have operatives that know what they are doing. There is a sense of excitement around her campaign in both iowa and New Hampshire. It is said only 23 of people were committed to who they were choosing. That shows there is a lot of time, and people need to make up their minds. Buttigieg is an obvious factor. I was hanging out with his Campaign Team in iowa. There was so much energy. If you talk to other campaigns, the one they hear coming behind them is buttigieg. The factor here is buttigieg was able to raise the money. He was able to raise in the second quarter, again in the third quarter. He is spending that money. He has the largest team the most amount of offices in iowa, the most in New Hampshire. He has hundreds of staff. That matters. In the last debate, we would argue buttigieg had a really good debate. So did amy klobuchar. One candidate had the instruction to capitalize on that, buttigieg. She tried. She got 100 million in fundraising in a few hours. She is doing a little bit better than she was a couple weeks ago. Capitalizing, buttigieg made 16,000 phone calls in New Hampshire the next day. The challenge of organization is it is money plus time. If you get money late, you cannot build an organization. Caucus, which is why you have to be careful about these polls, you have a complicated process where people show up on a cold night and speeches are given. Then there are multiple ballots with people dropping out. The social relationships between the people in the smaller counties becomes important. I was for Kamala Harris. She did not make it in Clinton County passed the first ballot. Provided coordinator is my nephew, i have to see him the biden coordinator is my nephew, i have to see him. All this stuff you cant poll comes into effect. The first time someone told me how the Iowa Caucuses are run, i thought someone was pulling my leg. The other thing we did mention in terms of money was biden. He has such little money. His Campaign Says he is so well known. That number [indiscernible] we are going to get to that in a minute. I want to do something you alluded to, the relationship between iowa and New Hampshire. My own experience in 2004 was that after john kerry won iowa, we agreed he would mention iowa exactly once. We had a great victory, but New Hampshire is the state that decides. He never mentioned iowa the rest of the time up until the primary. 2008, barackin obama landed in New Hampshire and he talked about iowa endlessly. We won iowa, if we won New Hampshire, we will win the nomination. I suppose hillarys tears when she asked about how hard campaigning originated to contributed to it, obama lost the primary he did well in. Dont you have to be careful when you get to New Hampshire . Everybody loves a winner. There are an awful on people in iowa and New Hampshire who end up with jobs in the white house. They were there early and helped propel campaigns. The key in this current race is to look at the expectation thing. I think Elizabeth Warren will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. I believe that. You look at all of the polling, democrats want to beat trump. Health care was number one. T is tied with Foreign PolicyElizabeth Warren is from massachusetts. What is win . Lyndon johnson won the primary, but not by much. Mccarthy, who was not supposed to do well, did it. With george bush, he mentioned he came from iowa a few times. That is because murphy was waiting for us in New Hampshire. We never went to iowa. We knew we could take bush in one place in time and chose the battlefield. It would be New Hampshire. New hampshire doesnt hate iowa, but they want to assert a certain supremacy. You have to do well enough in iowa to make it to the majors. New hampshire, if you do Everything Else right there, there is a special sauce. I like the idea coming out of iowa second, then having the right infrastructure waiting in New Hampshire. If things go right for him, big if. We are under 100 days to go. A lot can happen. If a buttigieg or somebody else can be the third interesting not biden, and not sanders and not warren, that could be the surprise dynamic. I think it is best to win both iowa and New Hampshire, which seldom happens in the Democratic Party. When gore and kerry did it, they went on to the nomination. People said fine, we are perfectly content. Maybe it isnt buttigieg. Maybe lightning really strikes. That has happened in New Hampshire before. Someone gets quite elevated from the second tier, which could happen. We talked about biden being short of money. Hes just okay. A superpac to make up the distance. What is the reaction of New Hampshire independents to that . That is an inside pitch. Money in politics in New Hampshire i have run races in other places i was of the notion it is better to have money than to be the candidate without it. I think money, message, and mothers milk of politics. More than anything else, what we have to keep an eye on is joe mothersbidens ability to conw hampshire and iowa voters in the small crowds. That is where you really test famous people. In a room with if joe biden had this many people in a room, it would be a bad story the next day. We are seeing in realtime a comedian flop at the comedy club. Singyou ever heard someone the National Anthem an octave too high . They will never make the bridge. It is hard to watch. The press is good at this, because they smell sweat miles away. What did you think of joe biden . Eh. The super pac thing, i dont think they get much engine that. Much into that. He sucked tonight. Does the premise live up to the promise . Does he retail well . I wonder in this democratic primary in particular, so much talk about millionaires and the 1 , people funding the super pacs are the same people. It would be easy to make an attack at out of this ad out of this. This year, it seems so heightened, specifically with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. He has no choice but to take the beating. That pays for your voter contact. He is going to get beat up. I think it will drop some blood. It is a narrative of, you are an old traditional politician. He already wears that suit. He desperately needs to compete. Im the idiot who blew 100 million in a super pac trying to elect jeb bush and the republican primaries in 2016. All the super pac funding in the world cannot save you if you are not what they are looking for. Biden may not be what they are looking for. He does have strengths. Without a super pac, he will concede the race without having a chance to litigate it. There is a technical limit to what they can do, but what one thing a biden super pac can do he can take the issue of medicare for all, which democratic primary voters are highly divided on, and he can shove that issue in the middle and cut the thing in half, which is a problem for warren. I dont think he has a choice. He will get beat up for it. I think there will be ads leastome from or at challenges and debate stages like, hillary, release your speeches to wall street. You took money from so and so, those are the people creating problems in America Today is what you will hear from his opponents. You could hear it from warren and sanders, but i dont think you will hear it from pete. He vowed he will not take a super pac. There is a hypocrisy argument with warren. She is technically running a great campaign, saying i dont take all that rich money. In the senate, she took 6. 5 million of that rich money and transferred it into her president ial committee. It is her campaign right now. Paying her campaign right now. I dont know if we get the new biden, you can put her back on her heels. Elizabeth warren will have to make a very hard pivot on this to compete, if she is the nominee. My sense is, against donald trump, there is only thing democrats hate more than billionaires, donald trump. To rutrump, there is onlyn the o in to just a few states love how california and new york has these we hate trump rallies. Our politics changed in the last primary, the way the media covers it, the way a president behaves, the way campaigns respond. I have been with them for a long time generations of them. Jeb bush is a tough politician. Smart, tough, good on his feet. That was his problem. That was not a smart election. His was a mean election it was all about calling somebody a loser. That is not what jeb bush was ready for. It has changed so much, my question is, when you call somebody a millionaire or billionaire, does it matter that much . What democrats are saying is kill the orange menace. I dont care how you do it, find someone who can get through a general election and take this guy out. Ideology electability rarely beats ideology in primaries, but there is some of that going on in the Democratic Party right now. I did not know you worked for tom steyer. [laughter] he creeped up the 3 . The caution i would have about biden is there is this tendency in the november before to decide what is going to happen. The New York Times had a front page story, which was not kind to me, saying there was no chance john kerry was going to get beyond iowa. He went on to win all two of the contests. We have to see whether or not the biden that was on 60 minutes joseph at the debate shows up at the debate. Why is it not called the guilt dinner . Before i turn this over to the audience, what about Kamala Harris . What about cory booker . What about andrew yang . Andrew yang has totally surprised me. When i first heard about him, i was like, this is insane. The voters you meet as his at his events, they love him. Is this a Bernie Sanders situation or ron paul situation . Ron paul had all these kids who loved him, they didnt come out to vote. Bernie sanders, he had all these kids who loved him and they came out to vote. Some bernie backers, former trump backers. He is in the second tier, but he has been interesting to watch. Kamala started off great. She had a high point when she announced and a high point when she challenged biden on segregation. It totally was a sugar high. Nothing she seems has done since then has stuck. Some of her supporters think she can clean up in South Carolina. As our polling has shown, she is not the favorite. You think yang might take off in New Hampshire. I think he could. Those of the three options. We are waiting for booker you have a moment. Maybe he will never have a moment. The moments are running out. I have a buddy who talks about the cone of probability like a hurricane. Booker has invested well in the early states. He has the structure to take it notage of it, but it has happened. Yang has been very much on fire. He has a significant amount of cash on hand. Not happened. They announced six figures, sanders firm they hired this week. If any of those three who continue to surprise this is a guy who never ran for office before. The best description of him was in a magazine profile, saying, you know that guy at the party saying if i were in charge, that is andrew yang. Or ron paul . Ron paul got second in 2012. I do think there is a future for andrew yang. I think his strategic question is whether he screws iowa. He is still at 0 . Which is what i would do, sell the moment. I have a hat. I am getting 100 emails. I feel like the yang thing is over a month ago, nationally. If you want to punish politics, your choice is him or bernie. Bernie has downsides. He has a little jolt of energy after getting through his health problem. Yang if you want to blow everything up, yang is it. I have not seen him perform in a meaningful way. I think he is interesting. Iowa, it is booker. I think, is on her way out quickly. Kamala is on her way out quickly. Amy klobuchar finally woke up and decided to be a candidate after being passive. Probably too late. She could get a lightning bolt, but not have the dollars to amplify what is going on in the electorate. I dont write off either cory or amy. If they become the understanding, they could run the understudy, they could run the poll in New Hampshire. That said, if the election was held today, i bet Elizabeth Warren would be the democratic nominee. And win New Hampshire. He just tiredirm was run by my former partner, tad devine. They made the brilliant america ad for Bernie Sanders in 2016. It will be interesting to see what they do with this multimillion dollar ad buy, which i suspect will be concentrated in New Hampshire more than in iowa. I want to turn this over and give people in the audience a chance to ask questions. We have a mic. Anybody for steyer, you can go first. [laughter] i should have asked about steyer, sorry. Anybody have a question . Insult, comment . Anyone from New Hampshire . New hampshire right here. You get 10 questions. Where are you from . Great. Exeter, no question . You must be, like, shaking. [laughter] there is a lot of dynamism in the New Hampshire and iowa votes, of course. I have been looking at South Carolina. A lot of africanamerican voters there support joe biden because they think he is the most electable to go after donald trump. If, say, Elizabeth Warren were to defeat him in iowa and New Hampshire and win the nevada caucus, do you think there would be a pretty large section of africanamerican voters in South Carolina who would you her w ould view her as more electable . I do. There is a precedent which is not perfect, which was 2008, when africanamerican voters thought hillary was the person. It is not a perfect analogy, but yes, i agree with mike. Much of the way we talk about New Hampshire trying to correct there is a tendency to correct some of this stuff. I think Elizabeth Warren will have to go a long way to prove she can connect with africanamerican voters. While you are winning iowa and New Hampshire and raising millions of dollars every day, you have to think about the sequencing of these contests. Its 12 dimensional chess every day. My question is whether or not she still is the Genuine Article to africanamericans. My suspicion is we have talked a lot in the seminar about institutions. Americans have lots of doubts about institutions, which is how we got trump. Africanamerican voters are interested in how they process this. If we renumber the Obama Coalition not showing up for mistrust of think a the institutions last time it was democrats. Inside the Democratic Party, does Elizabeth Warren rings true with all of her plans . And the fighting. Does she rings true with that . She is good at it. The question is, do they believe someone from harvard, who made the money she made teaching a course or two, who is a northeast elitist, is someone that can speak to and hear their concerns . I think she plays well in the northeast and california. South carolina is a potential problem for her. A bunch of swing states are problems for her later. This has been under the radar. She has been trying to make inroads among africanamericans, particularly women. Africanamerican voters are still sticking with biden in the polls. Stumble, she has done some of the early work that could pay dividends. Problem inan equal that particular voting segment, i think. If you are winning and you are counting trump on tv, democrats will be for democrats in the end. I do this podcast with my friend david axelrod. A shameless plug. Isis interesting if biden damaged by iowa, second or third, but not dead yet, will barack obama send a subtle signal his way . The obama connection is such an old for biden with africanamericans. That is part of the foundation, and beating jump. Trump. Or will the absence of an endorsement become a signal in itself . That eight days in february will be highstakes politics for joe biden. It will affect how much blue remains. Warrenexample is going to run into problems in South Carolina . John edwards won the South Carolina primary and john kerry won three of the first four. John edwards won that primary and one other contest because he had two home states, north and South Carolina. My point is it did not stop john kerry on his way to the nomination. You are right, the obama thing warren will have the resources, as will bernie and pete, to be competitive in the nevada caucus, which is driven heavily by culinary unions and is also heavily latino. There is a beat before South Carolina that could immediately be part of the equation if you come out of New Hampshire with steam. Do you think biden could survive doing a mediocre job in iowa and New Hampshire, then hol d onto his vote in South Carolina and come back . Ronald reagan did this in 1976 when he was challenging gerald ford. He lost the early contest. He revived himself in North Carolina and almost won the nomination. Pick a moderate liberal senator from pennsylvania for Vice President , he would have won it. It is ana argument many peope are viewing skeptically. You have these candidates with all of this money. If he does not do well in the first two states, the money will dry up further. The super pac donors also might get skeptical if things are not going well. If he doesnt win the first two states never say never, but t he path becomes exponentially harder. No one has ever done it. There is an armageddon strategy for democrats that its hard to ignore, even against a damaged trump, who has almost certainly faced impeachment from the house. Probably not convicted, but very likely impeached. I think the problem is democrats have these lanes. Elizabeth and joe biden have been splitting the lane. Pete buttigieg as money. He is progressive enough. My question is, who bows out . Kamala harris bows out. Should have been yesterday. Amy klobuchar, two senators, they have a life ahead of them. Cory booker has been a good politician. How long does he hang in how long does he hang in . I dont know. Keep themy get to from the supernova place . They will be stuck in washington in an impeachment trial. They will be jumping out of the chair, setting their hair on fire, desperately trying to get attention. Someone else . Heard recently, although i havent heard it lately, that because of the way the 2016 run, with run, with hillary supposedly already getting the nomination, bernies Staff Campaign supporters feel like now he should get it, because he 016, he was robbed in 2 therefore a lot of people chose to vote differently. I was wondering how you guys feel about that. Is it significant, insignificant . They voted differently, or they didnt vote at all, but they were so pissed, frankly, that they did a lot of rogue voting, protest voting. They were so mad, they felt we got screwed. I am talking about the general election. They feel like they are entitled. Nominated, he is not there could be a similar impact and who voters vote for. I have a question following up on that, who won the popular vote in the 2016 primaries, and who won the most contests in the 2016 primaries . A you are the one to add fifth quarter to the football game. It doesnt work that way. In 2016 bernie people think the nomination was stolen. Who won the most popular votes in 2016 in the primary . Im not relitigating the general. Who won the most contests . Hillary clinton did. And superdelegates. [indiscernible] she would have one without them. Hillary did underperform in western cities with africanamericans. It cost her wisconsin, cost her michigan. Not as clear in pennsylvania. There is not a big data argument that a lot of bernie people stayed home. Is pouting voter theory highly overrated. Jill stein didnt get more votes in a margin of victory. We are not hearing it the way we did in 2016 from donors. I dont feel from voters. The problem bernie is having his he has other people that share his ideological view. Some voters who supported him in 2016 believe Elizabeth Warren is the fresher version of it. He won the New Hampshire primary with 62 of the vote. In todays poll, he is getting 21 of the vote. That tells you it is a fragmented field. Maybe it was a binary choice between him and hillary clinton. All of those votes were not entirely for him, they were against her. In the poll that came out today, bernie is the most likable democratic candidate. In New Hampshire. Within the margin of error. Bernie sanders is the most likable. I am reminded of a comic who wrote a great set and another comedian stole his material and performed it. You get the sense that bernie is the guy who came up with it i wrote the damn bill he is the angry muppet guy. And you feel for him, because bernie did write this set. He said, this is what i am going to be for. I will take the Democratic Party to a different place. I get the feeling that even though there is a strong for anything, elizabeth is this shiny new object. She is splitting him down the middle. He clearly is starting to resent it. He is a happy warrior. He has become larry david, literally. The question is, how long does this wear with democrats . I dont think he can win. Democrats fall in love usually. They want to beat trump. This poll, we look at these polls because they dont have an election day to report. It is harder and harder to poll anybody, because no one takes the call anymore, especially New Hampshire. The noise meter in a state bernie won big, the guy they once voted for had a heart attack, then he came back and showed a little light. After that, he had one of the better weeks of his campaign with aoc. Thanks to a stent made by an evil pharmaceutical company. We will bring this to an end, i think. I want to thank seema, james, patrick, mike, and those of you who came out on a night where the Decisive Game of the world series is being played. Maldon auto when i said this could be the same night as the world series, she said no, never going to happen, the dodgers will win in four. Thanks to our panel. [applause] campaign 2020. Watch live coverage of the president ial candidates on the campaign trail and make up your own mind. Yourns campaign 2020, unfiltered view of politics. Our cspan campaign 2020 bust team is traveling across the country, visiting key battleground states in the 2020 president ial race, asking voters what issues they want candidates to address. Id like the candidates to focus on what is good for the put the people and put people of our country ahead of party and politics. One thing that is important to average americans is the economy and job creation. Im hoping there will be a focus on that. I believe the candidates of 2020 should recognize the Massive Health care disparity we have within the nation, access to health care, access to Proper Health quality. I believe there should be a higher focus on climate change. I feel as if, no matter who you are, it affects us no matter where you live. Recently i noticed there was not an emphasis from america on climate change, and people debating if scientists actually are correct. But we never question earthquakes, we never question hurricanes, but we want to question climate change. I believe we dont see the immediate effects. We push it on our children. I want to see more of this in the president ial election. Voices from the campaign trail, part of cspans battleground states tour. Newsmakers,n congressman john yarmuth of kentucky, the House Budget Committee chair. He discusses expectations of a houseboat next week on a shortterm continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown. He talks about the risks of a recession and impeachment proceedings. Watch newsmakers live, sunday at 10 00 eastern, on cspan. Cspan followed president ial candidate Pete Buttigieg as he traveled to meet with New Hampshire voters. He started his day at a town hall in lebanon. He went by bus to franklin, where he toured several Small Businesses and stopped in near