Transcripts For CSPAN U.S.-Taliban Peace Process Discussion 20240714

I think we will go ahead and get started or good morning. I am the Vice President here. I am delighted to welcome you to todays important and timely event. Many of you know, we were founded 35 years ago by members of congress as an independent, nonpartisan National Institute charged with the vitally Important Mission of preventing, mitigating, and resolving violent conflict abroad. Odays topic is near and dear we have had an office since 2002 and are working closely with the afghan u. S. Governments and others to address underlying causes of the stability and violence. Dedicated considerable effort in the last care years to support research, dialogue, skill building workshops, and policy analysis both here in washington and afghanistan. Throughout all of our efforts to hold fast to the conviction that the Peace Process to be sustainable, it must be inclusive. We recently held a workshop in istanbul with work leaders from afghanistan, most of whom participated in various a couple of months ago. It has been a turbulent week in washington to say the least. A week ago, many have anticipated the u. S. Taliban agreement between the United States and the taliban, which will be initially the topic of todays discussion. That deal is now uncertain. While the u. S. Taliban talks have been ended, at least for the time being, the urgency of finding a way to reduce violence and achieve a political settlement of the conflict remains. The taliban and Afghan Government, backed by the u. S. And nato allies, are in a military stalemate. Other groups like isis and alqaeda retain footholds in afghanistan, and afghans continue to suffer ever greater civilian casualties. The need for peace is palpable. Whatever path lies ahead, we know the way forward must provide lasting security and for serve the people of afghanistan. We have an exceptionally wellqualified group of people today to discuss where things stand in the Peace Process and help illuminate a very complex situation and identifying ways forward including afghanistan ambassador to the United States, roya rahmani. Welcome. A distinguished panel of experts including the new chairwoman of the afghanistan independent human rights commission, who is joining us video link from kabul. Scott worden were moderate the discussion and take questions from the audience. I encourage you all to follow the conversation on twitter at usip in todays hashtag, afgpeace. During the q a period will also take some questions via twitter at this hashtag. Once again at usip, afgpeace. Check out the new ipod network which will include this event and many other compelling programs featuring leading voices in peace, violent conflict prevention and National Security. Before we begin todays moderated discussion, i had the distinct pleasure of inviting ambassador roya rahmani to the stage for some opening remarks. Ambassador rahmani became the first woman ambassador of afghanistan to the United States in december of last year and she quickly became a friend to usip. Not only has she been a fierce advocate for the women of afghanistan, her own story exemplifies the resilience and perseverance of the Afghan People. Like millions of other afghans, she and her family lived as refugees in neighboring pakistan during the early 1990s. She attended attended a school for refugees, and when the classrooms overflowed with students, she studied on the roof for a year. She went on to earn a bachelors in software engineering, worked for a number of international nonprofits, focused on human rights, received a masters in Public Administration and International Law from columbia university. Shes worked in education ministry, minister of foreign affairs, served as afghanistan ambassador to indonesia. Please join me in welcoming ambassador rahmani. [applause] ambassador rahmani excellencies, distinguished guests, mrs. Lindbergh, mr. Wilder, distinguished panelists, friends, and colleagues, good morning to all of you. May peace be upon you. Its a pleasure to be here at the United States institute of peace to speak about the prospect of peace in afghanistan. The Afghan People have been speaking about peace for a long time. We have yearned for it, planned for it, and fought for it. With the type of commitment that comes from knowing what it is like to live without it. Beginning with the rollout of the seven point agenda during the kabul process in 2017 which was followed by historic ceasefire, the first in 40 years. The people of afghanistan and their elected representatives have been eager to engage in a meaningful Peace Process. Since 2017, we have continued to engage the Global Community and our regional partners on this issue to numerous platforms. Including the heart of asia and the geneva conference. Importantly, we have made concerted efforts to engage with our neighbors to ensure that the region is mobilized and ready to support us in this plan that we have. Despite many challenges, our progress towards peace has maintained its momentum. This past spring, i attended a grand council in kabul along with 3200 delegates from across afghanistan who came together to lend their voice, their voices, to the Peace Process. One of the things that struck me the most was the practicality with which the afghans approach the idea of peace. People came from provinces not with abstract ideas, but with a clear agenda and precise demands for building a prosperous future. Among the many requests put forward to the president , was an institute of geology calling to support the expiration once provinces which minerals, for better roads to increase connectivity all over. My experience really confirmed something that i already knew. Peace isnt an abstract concept for afghans. Its a tangible goal. And its grounded in three critical foundations. Democracy, economic prosperity, and security. So, allow me to explain a little bit about each, what i mean. Democracy, peacebuilding, the kind that brings about longterm peace and stability, required consensus, and widespread popular buyin. We know that this can only be accomplished among population that is involved in seeing the terms of the agreement that they will ultimately be responsible for enforcing it. We have worked hard to create the kind of environment in afghanistan where the level of Civic Engagement is possible, and weve seen so much progress. When young people today, critique the administration for its shortcoming and demand better, i see it as a major come as a measure of how far we have come. Our citizens have come to expect democracy. They are Holding Us Accountable and learning to trust the democratic process. With this in mind, the government has remained focused on approving government and strengthening Democratic Institution in afghanistan. Despite the steep political costs. The administration has fought against the corruption and impunity which has eaten away at our foundation. We are bringing muchneeded reform to the justice sector. We are delivering Critical Services like education and health care. As we work to regain the trust of the people, we are laying a Necessary Foundation for peace. The process has been clear. The progress we have made in democracy is safeguarded by the maintenance of constitutional order. Last october, despite overwhelming odds and local detractors, we had successful vocal detractors, we had successful and peaceful parliamentary elections. Today, we have a sitting and functioning parliament, which although not perfect, is able to fulfill its functions. We must continue to build stability and support the continuity of the democratic processes to the election that are scheduled for later this month. This is a priority. If we want to succeed in creating peace in afghanistan, we must Pay Attention to this. At this critical juncture, we must foster this fragile trust in afghan democracy by showing afghan citizens that their contribution matters and that their voices will not be ignored. On the economic prosperity, of course, politics do not happen in vacuum. And we know that neither peace deal nor elections are enough to guarantee longlasting peace. With the success of one innovative type to the other, understand the relationship between Economic Growth and peace is crucial to the success of any Peace Process. What we have learned in afghanistan following generations of conflict, and now decades of hard work, is that popular buyin, that all important commitment that keeps people focus on building a peaceful future despite difficulties and setbacks, is sustained by a single, critical sentiment, hope. We also know that hope, or the belief that a Better Future will come out of all the blood and sweat and tears that must be poured into making peace a reality, is directly linked to opportunity. Afghanistan is the youngest country outside of africa, 68 of afghans are under the age of 25. In the 18 years since the american intervention, this young generation has come of age with aspirations that those who came before them never were there to reach for. They want education and jobs. They want the ability to connect to the rest of the world. The vision that they hold future hold of future opportunity and prosperity is the most effective insurance we have against hopelessness, violence, and terrorism. Sustaining this hope by ensuring that our people continue to have opportunities has been a priority for the Afghan Government and is a key pillar of our peace plan and reform agenda. Its a goal that i know we share with our international and regional partners who also want to see afghanistan safe and selfreliant. We have made progress on these goals in number of ways, from expanding regional trade and transit opportunities to supporting technological advancements. As an example, just two days ago on september 7, the first train shipment caring 41 container wagon and 1100 tons of powder talc powder departed afghanistan for china. The cargo will arrive at the destination after a 12 day journey. We are prioritizing the future prospects of our young citizens by ensuring that doing business in afghanistan is getting easier every day. We have undertaken reform to incentivize investment, including strengthening management of our public finances. The 2010 budget is the first fully transparent in the countrys history. It meets International Standards and is the primary tool for the policymaking and prioritization. Finally, we have introduced many new laws, including Publicprivate Partnership law, a new companies law, undo a new insolvency law, and a new mining law. As a result of these efforts, afghanistan was named one of the top ten world banks doing Business Indicator approvers since 2018. In 2018. Based on the mayors of the many the merit of the many projects were implementing, the imf has agreed that afghanistan can begin applying for loans. Our plans for economic selfreliance are achievable and within reach. In the past four years, weve seen a 90 increase in our cumulative revenue versus the previous four years. Currently, we are able to pay for 50 of our expenses, and every year, we would like to cut down 10 expenditure and increase 10 of our revenue. Based on this plan, even allowing for unfortunate challenges, we can expect to be selfreliant within three to five years. This is a solid starting point for peace, and we are extremely grateful for our partner, who have invested so much in giving in getting us here. But now, we must embrace the challenge of standing on our feet. As a group of businessmen that i met during my last trip just last week in afghanistan, who told me that we are no longer putting our hands out to beg for aid money. Instead, we are reaching for partnership, opportunities, and the infrastructure to support sustainable Economic Growth. In our quest for longterm economic prosperity, we are laying the groundwork for sustainable peace. And last, but not least, is security. A study of over 33 Peace Agreements has confirmed that a ceasefire and stabilization is a critical first step in any Peace Process. Its not hard to see why this is particularly relevant in afghanistan. I can just return from two weeks trip in afghanistan, during which there were 347 casualties. Over 127 of them were civilians. The frustration and sadness that President Trump expressed over in kabul last week is shared very deeply by afghan citizens. Its impossible to begin the process of rebuilding trust under these conditions. And the taliban of course is not the only threat we face. In addition to the vast Terror Networks that the taliban does not control, we are also engaged in a war against narcotics industry whose thinkers stress across the ocean to the individuals in america. Because of this reality the people of afghanistan are well aware that needed security nor peace can be delivered by a settlement with anyone who [inaudible] and we are so grateful for the support weve received, particularly from our American Partners in our shared efforts to confront the these groups onto afghanistan, but to the entire world. Thanks to the support and the bravery of our Security Forces, we have made steady progress. With the tripling of our air force and doubling of our commander, the Afghan Security forces have been defeating every wave of taliban intensified attacks since the beginning of the year. I want to conclude by saying that although progress isnt always easy to see, we have made significant strides in laying the groundwork of peace in afghanistan. For the first time in generations, we have the vision, the wealth, and Human Capital necessary to achieve our goals. We know peace is on the horizon. We also know that it will come from our terms. On our terms. The kind of peace that afghans in patient is very much aligned with the counterterrorism efforts that the United States wants to see your the prosperity wants to see. Thr society that we are working to build will not only bring security to afghanistan. It is the best insurance that the world could have against the Global Threats of terrorism. As Franklin Roosevelt once said, in the truest sense, freedom cannot be just slowed. Cannot be bestowed. It must be achieved. I believe this also applies to peace. With their dedication and the support of our partners, i know we can achieve it. Thank you. I thank you. [applause] thank you, ambassador, for the wonderful remarks on scott for the wonderful remarks. I scott worden, the director of am afghanistan and Central Asia Programs for United States institute of peace thank you. Is the microphone on . I will project my voice. Until the microphone gets on. I am scott worden, the director for the afghanistan and Central Asia Program here at usip thank you. Do we have to turn ours off . Is this working now . Great. Im scott worden, director of afghanistan and Central Asia Programs at United States for the United States institute of peace. Thank you, ambassador, for this for those wonderful opening remarks. We are very pleased to have distinguished panel to discuss further the issue of the Peace Process in afghanistan. I think for our afghanistan audience, these will be well know. I will give brief introductions joining us on the screen behind is shaharzad akbar, currently the chairperson of the afghanistan independent human rights commission. She has experience not just as a human rights activists but, also as a Civil Society leader and a government official. She recently served as a deputy on the National Security council for afghanistan, and she was the leader of the open Society Afghanistan ngo. She will be speaking first. Im also joined by Michael Semple on the far right, he is a professor at the Queens University belfast at the Mitchell Institute and serves the Mitchell Institute for global peace, security and justice. He has worked in roles with the United Nations and ngos in afghanistan and he served as a deputy for several years of the European Union special representatives office. Also to his left is doctor barnett rubin, senior fellow and associate director of the center for International Cooperation at New York University and a longtime afghanistan scholar. He served as Senior Advisor to the state Department Special representative for afghanistan and pakistan and has also advise advised the United Nations , including on the bonn Peace Process. And then finally to my immediate right is laurel miller, the asia director at International Crisis group. Prior to that, she was the acting special representative for afghanistanpakistan with the state department and has also worked in positions at rand and at usip. So, we will first hear from kabul, afghanistan, shaharzad akbar. Thank you for joining us. It is late in the day there. Of course, when we first sent out invitations for this event we were expecting to talk about the impact of u. S. Taliban agreement. Now, that is suspended, but i think that agreement, if it was to occur, if it does still occur, its really just the first act of what will be a long and difficult Peace Process. And that true hurdle lies in afghan to afghan negotiations included with the taliban, with the company, and other elements of afghan society. For this panel, ive asked the speakers to speak from of course their different perspectives, but what lies ahead. How do we address the most fundamental issues of negotiations and notably getting to a ceasefire and lasting peace . So without further ado, shaharzad, the floor is yours. Good morning, everyone. Im really honored to be part of this distinguished panel. And speak first about the reactions of the recent investment by President Trump, and then speak what lies ahead for the process. Talk about what lies ahead for the process. The reaction to President Trumps announcement about u. S. Taliban talks, there were a lot of positive reactions also captured by the media from afghan that the process was not moving forward in a way that it should and frustrated about lack of involvement and shared concerns about the implications of the process for future afghan. It was also responses that highlighted the concern. I remember right after that announcement my mom was asking me does this mean the war will go on for much longer . So there was also a set of responses coming from afghanistan about the implications of the cancellation of talks for the conflict, and particularly for maintaining violence and peacekeeping. Theres also responses that have improbably been covered much by media, but theres ambivalence. Many of us were watching the u. S. Taliban talks smoothly and had concerns about how the talks were going. Concerned about the way the taliban were being received by interNational Security and by International Community and by the u. S. , positioning themselves, and this general disregard for the previous human lives. Disregard for the previous as well as their own irony about engaging with the afghans and the arrogance about their vision for the future of afghan and her statements about the vision, and engaging. There were concerns about how the u. S. Taliban talks are going, but theres also, due to that concern, these concerned with voice repeatedly but that doesnt mean there isnt a growing concern about the need for an end to conflict. I think one of the things, the reaction to the talks also the reaction, the announcement also illustrated was growing concern about the need to end the violence, and about the need for negotiations of talks to end the violence and conflict in afghanistan. I think moving forward from the reaction, i think the reactions have messages for all stakeholders involved. For the u. S. Government and for international partners, the positive reaction of u. S. Taliban talks afghans were of what the talks would be for afghanistan. They were very concerned about how the taliban were treated in the sense they were having keeping leverage at the consequence of that happening the way they were. And so i think moving forward if and when the talks will resume, there are lessons about, there are lessons to be learned about the reaction in terms of building more confidence among afghans more generally towards the use taliban talks and what this could mean for the future of afghan. We cannot really have a peaceful outcome if the majority of the population mistrusts the process thats happening between u. S. Between the u. S. And the taliban. And i think that came out in reactions of suspension as well. In terms of the Afghan Government, i think this is an unfortunate thing for the government for political entities to regroup and to really think deeply about the concept of an afghan led Peace Process. Theres a lot of emphasis from our political allegiance on the ownership of afghan, ownership comes with a lot of responsibility, requires confidence building and requires leadership and ownership requires preparedness. As a citizen im concerned about the level of preparedness and the cohesion on the nontaliban side. I think many citizens activists are concerned about this. This is the time for the Afghan Government and political elites to have commitment to the afghan ownership of Building Cohesion and preparing better for the dialogue for when it happens. I think that there are messages for the taliban from this reaction. The sense that many afghans had from various taliban talks was that as the talks are getting more and more arrogant, they are becoming less and less i assume my colleagues that i went to their Memorial Ceremony yesterday, lost a colleague to taliban violence last week. Urban community. The memoryattending of this subject, there was a declaration, which asked, do not engage. There is a lot of there are a lot of feelings of anger, fear, anxiety. Think this is a feeling that perhaps informs their own view. If the taliban are interested in longterm peace, they need to engage with us because in the long term, they have to sit down and Afghan Governments Start Building these relationships now. This was the message that we had. We have to keep doing the work advocating for an improved piece. We also have to work on broadening the coalition. E need to work harder is sharedhe platform with diverse groups. , inone thing particularly this process we believe that we accessingink about achieving lasting peace. So, [indiscernible] thank you. We will hear presentations from all the panelists before taking questions, and michael simple, europe next. Hello, everyone. You byi dont surprise saying i am perhaps more optimistic for the late prospects of peace in afghanistan than i was a week ago. This fore shall see have been explained to us. Peaceis a deep desire for , and i believe it will be fulfilled. I think that there may now be for thiser prospects progress. I am also glad that the ambassador mentioned at the of junethe ceasefire 2018. Wey enough there was from almost every afghanistan of afghanistan where, within days of the announcement of the president , which he called for a unilateral cessation of violence, the boundn were basically following suit. We have these Good Spirited the mountains,in coming into town, the interior minister in the streets taking selfies. Toentially, the sense is recapture the spirit and turn it into a reality. , there are bright lessons and phone lessons you can draw from that. One of the wrong lessons is the cuts across the conflict. One of the wrong lessons that is that the order ends the order was sufficient to bring about these scenes. Used byknow has been some. If we only talk to the same leadership, everything will be fine. When we follow in detail what is going on there, of course these taliban fighters who came into town and went on facebook and so on. So on they used as a cover the way thations they came through, but much of the was in defiance of instructions of their commanders. Commanders who were essentially screaming, we told to to stop fire, not make friends. Way, i believe tot it is more likely sanctioned elements. Innocents, part of the is many ofgood news the taliban are just as concerned about what on earth just happened. And some will and you know what . Sometimes confusion is good. One of the reasons this confusion is better than what we , barney and i have worked hard on this case for many years. I was trying to think how to explain to millennials in the audience how long we have been working on this piece. I will tell you what it is. The first time we did a discussion about the way forward, he had in his hand, the First Digital device and i was looking at it invidiously. It was a palm pilot. Yes, exactly. Well. It was so cool. I was really impressed. When theylso the era brought out the first book on the taliban. Had a copy of it a slightly deluded young man in the pre9 11 days came and said, i saw the book. Can you tell me how i can join . I didnt. The leadership has been confused because obviously they thought they knew what was going on. Is throughoutthat the process, they exploited explaining to the membership to wasTaliban Movement anticipated for this Peace Process. By a direct contrast, particularly we have followed the irish protest. The ira spent years and months bringing their side on board. The taliban didnt take the trouble to talk to their membership. When on the 30th of august they started to talk to their leadership, their membership, about what the deal was, they pivoted from it. The only message was negotiations are continuing. Trust the negotiators. Everything they do serves the cause of the jihad. They pivoted to say the deal achieves everything they stood for and signing it is a guarantee of the restoration of the Islamic Emirates. Without many details to back it up, they systematically avoided giving those details. For those of us who spend our time trying to understand and explain, that was highly problematic. Unless somebody finds a way to revive this, we never know what he really intended. They certainly werent honest with their membership. Did they take seriously the interafghan talks, even ideas of some kind of compromised political solution . Thats something they did not share with the membership. People vaguely knew there was a Movement Toward talks, but there was no clear understanding inside the movement of what would happen. There certainly was no preparation for compromise and moving towards a settlement, as opposed to talks. I will say that along with this oversold message that we are getting the Islamic Emirates, across the movement, there was something starting to play to the spirits of june 2018. A majority of taliban thought that perhaps there was a move towards peace. They werent told honestly about how that could be. Perhaps their leaders the did not intend to do it. Along with confusion, theres been a lot of disappointment. I have communicated bitter disappointment, people on the taliban side who thought maybe the war is about to end and they are deeply disappointed. I think trying to make sense of how the taliban the it, we have to make a distinction about how the team and qatar saw it and how the rest of the movement saw it. My research over the past year, there are fundamental divergences. Thats highly politicized, a highly disciplined team that has grown up and qatar that has grown up behind this process. Some of them have become good at their job. Good at trying to coopt or intimidate, im sure they target you pretty hard while you are there. They were a cool team, but completely separate from the people who were there in afghanistan. Broadly, they justified what they were doing, saying were the political front of a broad struggle, the rest is the military front. I was also asked to say if there are differences in the movement over talking versus fighting. I have been approached by many taliban, who i believe in their commitment to ending this war. When is anybody going to talk with us . Why are you people always building up the hardliners and helping reinforce the control of our hardliners over the struggle . They are sort of talking back to the spirit of the ceasefire. It was a subversive element of the ceasefire that allowed it to succeed for a wild, or at least show the road. We have never been able to get peacemaking over the past year. We have adequate evidence that significant factions and numbers inside the Taliban Movement have reached the conclusion that this war has run its course and it must end. Many have also reached the conclusion that it must be based on compromise rather than conquest. The challenge in Going Forward will be how to capture that spirit. The worst thing friends of afghanistan can do in taking this forward would be to take up from where we left off immediately before the thing that happened last week. We are to be building on what has been achieved, rather than picking up pieces. They should declare mission successful, mission succeeded, in terms of the afghan track. Huge effort has gone into it. It established the u. S. Wants to move troops out of afghanistan, but wants to do so responsibly. Anybody who engages with them, that conversation has been had. Everybody knows it. The u. S. Is not occupying afghanistan. Any further conversations about troops if i were giving advice would be this conversation would be with the minister of defense of afghanistan and the chief of army staff. Its how the redeployment of u. S. Troops is to be done in a safeway. The agenda on piece is how to come forward to supporting the emergence of an afghan settlement so we dont need it to return to the foreigners talking with the taliban. Its been a very important conversation. Now its important to jump ahead to what is supposed to be achieved. The interafghan conversation. The worst thing to do would be to go to qatar and carry on with conversations and empower the people who got through over the past year. Let them reflect, let people think about how they overplayed their hand. Open up a conversation to all possible addresses for the taliban, who are prepared to get involved with peace. The touchstone of getting involved with peace is having it pointed to ending violence and and the killing of afghans. I believe there is sufficient buyin on all sides in the afghan war to be able to proceed on the basis. Creative thinking, learning lessons, and moving forward rather than moving back. Afghan is one piece, and they will achieve it. Thank you very much. Thank you for that reminiscence. Before i go on, i want to thank the ambassador for the excellent statement. I also have a memory that is somehow preparing for this talk to the extent i have prepared. The first time i gave a public talk about afghanistan in washington, d. C. , which as i recall, was a meeting i organized 35 years ago at the American University that i chaired, and the speakers were them. At that time, i wrote a report on Human Rights Violations in afghanistan, which was entitled an agent is dying. Thats what one of them said to me in 1986. Clearly, that was not true. Afghanistan was not dying, it is not dying now, but afghans have an dying since that time. Really, i cannot overstate the urgency with which we need to end that process. I feel that should take priority over everything else. I will step back and put on my panelist at. I have been asked to talk about regional and international issues. Let me start with some very basic facts that are often ignored. Very basic geography. When i hear people talk about what we should do, my response is look at a map. What are you talking about . Afghanistan is a landlocked country. That means no other country can have access to it without going through the territories or the airspace of pakistan, iran, a tiny bit of china, or free Central Asian republic. They are also essentially landlocked, to which we have access only through china and russia primarily. That landlocked position is in many ways as the origin of these conflicts and the dilemma that afghanistan find itself in. When afghanistan found itself in conflict with the newly formed nation of pakistan over various ethnic and order issues, the u. S. Allied with pakistan. If the u. S. Could not aid the military and then turn to the soviet union. The decision, because of its landlocked position, to turn into a district power to protect itself against its neighbor had the results that we know. As a cautionary tale, afghanistan trying to turn to the u. S. , which unlike this usually soviet union does not have a border, will also be a cautionary tale. It means alliance with the u. S. , reliance on the u. S. For security and prosperity of afghanistan, is not the longterm strategy. Disengagement is not a shortterm strategy. Why is that the case . Why does it need to turn to others . Because afghanistan is not only the youngest country in the world outside of africa, it is also the poorest country in the world outside of africa. By far poorer than any other country in asia. All of the achievements we have been talking about and rightly celebrating are not financed by afghanistan, cannot be financed by afghanistan. When the Afghan Government talks about its achievements in increasing revenue in becoming more selfsufficient, its talking but covering the cost of the operating budget of the afghans date. It is not talking about sustaining these Development Projects and progress. Therefore, afghanistans future, if it is to be sustainable, will depend on developing an economy. For a landlocked country, that means connectivity to world markets. The military, the state, it is dependent on direct Financial Aid in the u. S. , which is dependent on the logistical access to afghanistan the u. S. Gets primarily through pakistan. Until our relations with iran undergo a uturn, or a lot more infrastructure, or russia goes a uturn, that will be the only alternative. Now, for conductivity to actually get the afghan economy moving, the engine has to be traded investment. Who are afghanistans main trading partners . There has been changes in that. A lot of changes in the Current Administration has been to diversify afghanistans trading partners so it is no longer as dependent on pakistan. Their main trading partners are still iran, pakistan, china, and india. For the more, where would the engine of Economic Growth in income from . There wasnt any potential engine of growth, no real economic incentive for peacemaking. People call it power of attraction. The growth of india and china has meant that there is economic dynamism that is linked to the afghan economy, could lead to some better take up. Chinas mechanism for building conductivity is the belt and Road Initiative, including the china and Pakistan Economic choir, which the u. S. And india oppose. Right now, the u. S. And china are locked in a dispute at the United Nations over whether the resolution renewing the mandate of the United Nations will mention the belt and Road Initiative or not. The u. S. Opposes, china is and since in. Same thing happened last year, and it gutted the resolution. Indias access to afghanistan, because it is cut off by land by pakistan, depends on access iran, the port of chop are and another port using previously. The u. S. Has iran under sanctions, which despite the attempt to waive some of them, have frozen the development and made it impossible to expand area one of the effects of these two phenomena is that her, gdp growth in afghanistan for the past two years has been negative. Its population growth has been faster than gdp growth. That is not a path to selfsufficiency and stability. As long as the u. S. Afghanistan is dependent for its security on the presence of a united dates which is opposed strategically to the conductivity projects that afghanistan needs to become selfsufficient, that presence can never stabilize afghanistan. What does this mean . First of all, the option of afghanistan being stabilized through a longterm u. S. Presence is now off of the table, despite what people talk about. The alternative to the deal that has been halted is not a longterm u. S. Presence. There is no armistice like in korea, no military that you like in germany, no unconditional sent surrender like in japan, no hostilities between china and taiwan. The alternative is u. S. Withdrawal on other terms. One of the positive achievements of this diplomatic process has been the development of a consensus among the u. S. , russia, and china, including pakistan, on this process. The core of that consensus is about a responsible transition to the withdrawal of u. S. Troops to afghans and and a political settlement. Its not about a permanent u. S. Presence conduct a forever war on terror in afghanistan. So far, russia, china, and pakistan have reiterated the position that they support a political settlement that will lead to a withdrawal, dialogue, and settlement in afghanistan. The u. S. Position is unclear. I think President Trumps basic position that he wants to get out of afghanistan, the Democratic Candidates basic position to get out, it is quite clear. The question is how . Based on what i have said, let me suggest. If the u. S. Is going to get out without the agreement that was reached last week, that doesnt mean it will get out without an agreement. First of all, the Afghan Government depending on how the elections go, but if there is a decisive result, which there may or may not be, the Afghan Government will be in a position to regain initiative to some extent if it is willing to say, to acknowledge its future is not based on the longterm presence of the United States. It can say we understand you are leaving, talk to us about how you want to leave. It can also say we are asking the u. S. To leave, is that your demand. In addition, the region still wants an agreement based on withdrawal of the u. S. Troops and a political settlement. Coming up on the u. N. General meeting, which some meetings are likely to take place. The u. S. , russia, china consensus position developed over the past few months was based on the work deviously done by russia through the moscow process, which the u. S. Initially saw as a threat and opposed, but eventually it participated in and was absorbed into this process so the u. S. And the Russian Special representatives were working together on this. The model for interafghan talks in that process was bringing the Afghan Government and taliban together through the context of a regional meeting which other stakeholders would be represented as well. They would control the access to afghan us in. It cant happen without the u. S. , as well, but theres no reason that regional process, interafghan talks by the way, one thing this process has clarified is the taliban are willing to talk to the Afghan Government. They agreed to do it. Arrangements for doing it were underway in norway. Their condition was the u. S. Afghan bilateral agreement, that inhibition, that prohibition, has been roken. It is now not a question of if, its a question of how and when. It may be that u. S. Taliban talks are not enabling the right environment. Maybe regional talks maybe u. S. Afghan bilateral maybe something we cant imagine, which i have found is a frequently occurring event over the past 40 years. I continue to think the present war is not sustainable. No one really wants it. Somehow or other, we will find another path. Thank you very much. We have heard perspective from afghanistan, a variety of angles, the region, now were going to come to the u. S. In here from laura miller about some of the u. S. Policy options. First, a word in response to michaels comments. Unfortunately, if a deep desire for peace was what it took for there to be peace, there would be a lot more peace in the world. I have no doubt there is a deep desire for peace. You still need political mechanisms to confer the deep desire for peace into actual. The idea that there is going to be a ferment rising up from the bottom and it will create peace is i think simply factually untrue in human existence. Thats not a policy recommendation, thats an observation. Or the u. S. , there are three basic options. I might amend it to say that barney has the fourth option ere. The three options are first of all, the u. S. Can withdraw. If the u. S. Wants to withdraw, and thats a policy choice the u. S. Makes, it doesnt have to make a deal to do it. It may still make a deal with the taliban to do it as a cover and a way of assuring safe passage on the way out the door. It doesnt in fact need an agreement to do it, nor does it need an agreement with the Afghan Government to do it. That would be desirable. If the u. S. Decides to simply withdraw, then the counterterrorism assurances that t is already negotiated, whatever they look like with the taliban, are essentially worthless. It is only potentially meaningful in so far as the taliban becomes part of the government structures of afghanistan and has some interest in adhering to them and there are mechanisms for holding them. Otherwise, those assurances are simply papering over the exit. If this is a policy option the u. S. Chose, the consequences for afghanistan would be quite devastating. I think the likelihood of a withdrawal from afghanistan within the next sometime before october 2020, with no Peace Agreement left behind, would very likely lead to intensified and wider civil war, more chaotic civil war in afghanistan. Ot guaranteed, but likely. The second option for the u. S. Is to continue what is doing. This is an option being promoted by some in washington. Often, it is said by those promoting this option that the u. S. Can afford lets call it 30 billion, 35 billion. The actual numbers are disputed area the u. S. Can afford that, afford to pay several Million Dollars a year for the afghans purity forces, can afford sustaining 8,600 if there is a drawdown of troops in afghanistan. Of course the u. S. Can afford the monetary cost of that. Owever, those who promote this ine entirely ignore the cost borne by afghanistan for that scenario. And the sustainability of those costs. Can afghanistan continue to sustain the cost, in terms of the lives of Afghan Security forces and what that means for the capabilities of the Security Forces for an indefinite period of time . Not to speak of the other human cost in afghanistan and the ways in which the conflict impeeds any possibility of genuine Economic Growth. That scenario, the lets keep doing what we are doing, also, i think, ignores the political realities in the u. S. Dont think that just doing what we are doing for an indefinite period of time, lets say indefiniteness is not a very long in that scenario. Politically, there are many signs on the wall as to the political unsustainability of this for much longer. The third option is trying to leave some kind of political settlement in afghanistan that is connected to a u. S. Withdrawal that means a process that is ore or less like the process that ambassador cal is on has been pursuing over these months. I cant speak to the specifics of the deal that he is negotiating and whether its the best that could be number she did or because we dont all know what is in that deal beyond a few specifics that dont quite tell us enough. In terms of what are the options as a process, that is basically it. Barneys idea of an option where the u. S. Stopped negotiating with the taliban and negotiates the government about the terms of its withdrawal is possible. Whether in fact there would be incentive on the Afghan Government side to negotiate a u. S. Withdrawal on a timeline in terms that fit the politics of the u. S. , i think it is an open question. One can contest that. What is not an option, unfortunately, is the kind of Peace Process that probably everyone in this room would refer, as im sure anyone on this panel or sitting at the table would prefer. That is the Afghan Government would prefer. It is the kind of Peace Process hat for many years, the u. S. Sought to launch. That is a Peace Process in which there is a ceasefire first, a Peace Process in which the negotiations are foremost initially, or at least simultaneously involving the Afghan Government and not just between the u. S. And taliban. A Peace Process that somehow upfront guarantees that the outcome will be such that the gains for women, minorities, many of the other kind of gains, are preserved. The u. S. Has been unable to deliver that kind of Peace Process. I see no reason why this week the options and capabilities of the u. S. To deliver that kind of Peace Process are better than they were last week or will get ny better in the future. If the Afghan Government, the afghan political aleve, the people want to reject the kind of Peace Process that the u. S. Is able to launch and try and deliver, that is perfectly within their right to do so. However, if that is what happens, i think that means afghanistan will be left alone to try and find peace on its own terms. I highly doubt that it will result in a Peace Process of the more desirable variety, where the taliban agrees to ceasefire and negotiations immediately commence with the Afghan Government. Im not recommending against the preferred Peace Process. If it were my choice, the preferred Peace Process would be the one that we had. As i said, the u. S. Has been unable to deliver that and will continue to the unable to. I think it is important to remember what it is that the u. S. Taliban agreement, as distasteful as it may be in many ways to many people, was intended to do. That is it was intended to lead to interafghan negotiations, that will be the real chris process Peace Process. Rather than criticizing the deal that can be had, my ecommendation would be to keep your eye on the prize. The prize is the interafghan negotiations. That will be the place where afghans are able to test the possibility of getting the kind of outcome that they prefer, and the kind of compromises they can live with. Whether it turns out to be possible or not, i dont know. I see that as the only realistic way forward. To close, i would say how do we move on from President Trump declaring that this process is ead . First and foremost, it requires a decision by the president to eclare the process undead. I think President Trump has shown himself to be exceptionally agile in reframing decisions and declarations and moving on from them when its in the interest, if he sees it of the u. S. , or his political interests, or his desire and the desire in his administration to do so. I see no obstacle to President Trump declaring the process undead, at least in principle. It will require rebuilding some of the confidence that the ambassador has succeeded in developing of the regional countries in particular in the u. S. Commitment to negotiating. That is a success to be had over the last year in winning confidence that the u. S. Was serious about peace negotiations and the disruption of this weekend does some damage to that. It is not fatal damage. It is damage that is probably easiest repaired by jolting the process back to life. Perhaps some electrotherapy, as quickly as possible. The longer the delay, it might be harder to do that. It is also necessary to deescalate the conflict dynamics in washington that have risen. I think about this deal and the criticism that has arisen. That is going to require the administration to be much more forward leaning in explaining the deal, explaining what a u. S. Taliban deal is or isnt. Theres a lot of perception that it is supposed to be the peace deal, so it did not deliver enough, when that is not really the case. It will require more selling of the deal in washington, which is predominantly about explanation of what it is, what it isnt, and what is in it. I would close by saying that this is in response to some of the comments the ambassador made, which i appreciate. It is important to bear in mind that these negotiations are not eace building. They are not the same thing. Many of the kinds of steps others talked about that will need to happen for there to be actual piece in afghanistan are absolutely necessary. Once you have set a Political Foundation for that kind of peace building. That is going to take a very long time. I think its not helpfu to criticize a piece negotiationl for not delivering what only longterm peace building can deliver. Thank you very much for all of those comments. We will be taking questions from the audience. Some of the staff will have microphones. Do wait until i call on you and the microphone arrives. As that is getting set up, i want to start with a question of my own. Im glad to see we reconnected. Some things you have said and the threat of the conversation has alluded to the divisions within the afghan political environment beyond the taliban. They obviously have an extreme and violent grievance with the political system of afghanistan. Theres a lot of discord within the country. I think the suggestion a lot have made is this undermines the fundamental leverage that an Afghan Government has to negotiate. Also, its been mentioned the president ial elections are coming up on september 20. Those are always a competitive and polarizing political event. As we look the on september 28, not knowing who will win, what you see is the need and opportunities for the postelection environment to either consolidate or ragment. What impact do you think it will have on the Peace Process . Let us try and get the audio. Can you hear me now . Yes, thank you. Think one of the responses to the announcement was about he fact that our future. Also, its important for the government to move beyond the situation. Oving beyond that situation is trying to build consensus. It will not be easy. The impact of elections for aving that position. The afghan Womans Movement is a good example of how growth can ave an impact. Afghan women have advocating for the process and protection. He advocacy is hard to see the Global Alliance for women. Many were very nervous about their voice not being amplified r being alone and marginalized n their demands. [indiscernible] it will not be easy. I personally have my concerns, [indiscernible] need for cohesion and for having one strong voice and for more leadership from all sides there. Thank you. Please say your name and your affiliation. Good morning. Im from the international Civil Society action network. Thank you all very much for your comments. This is a question you spoke about the importance and need for the inconclusivity for the Peace Process which many of us value and agree with, both for our shared values of human rights and for the evidence that we have around the sustainability and durability of Peace Processes and my question is just what can Civil Society activists and organizations do globally to support you and in the various afghan groups as you prepare for the interafghan dialogue . Thank you. I think it was a good example can really have an impact am fiing the voice of the Civil Society. The impact of elections for having that position. The afghan Womans Movement is a good example of how growth can have an impact. Afghan women have advocating for the process and protection. The advocacy is hard to see the Global Alliance for women. Many were very nervous about their voice not being amplified or being alone and marginalized n their demands. The sponsor from response from the organization for the importance of listening to a man and their demands and listening o their aspirations and also ensuring that the station of a had of an afghan woman en very encouraging and we offer the process there are concerns about the process and there are concerns about a future for the government. Government and the implications for womens rights. We feel that we are not alone in demanding protection of rights. Goal would be my to keep doing what youre doing, an activist as an Organization Standing for human rights. Keep am fiing the voice of human rights activists and reminding everyone including the taliban the human that rights are not aspirations [indiscernible] listening to their aspirations for peace. Also, ensuring a wide variety of afghan women. There is now the feeling, there are concerns about a future post settlement government and the implications for women. We feel we are not alone. My call would be to keep doing what you are doing. Keep up keep amplifying the voice of women activists. Reminding everyone, including the taliban, that these groups are not alone. The patients for gender equality, human rights, are not aspirations that only the Afghan People have. This gentleman here. Jack pagano, c. O. O. Of shamshargh radio and television, and retired Lieutenant Army colonel, spend four years in afghanistan. We are one of the few tv stations that gets into the tribal areas in pakistan. My question is if they own the land, 65 of afghanistan is ruled by the taliban. As you know, if youre a military guy, if you own the land, you own the narrative. My question is how are you going to get the taliban in those remote regions that feel empowered to lay down their arms, to say to everyone theres peace on the horizon, when they now time is on their side . Thank you. I think i will turn to Michael Semple to answer that first. And i will turn to others if they want to answer. Good question. I wanted to comment on the military situation, because fundamentally, we are all making he point, despite the jostling and the from line of the options, ultimately, what everyone is saying is the way forward will be when there are successful interafghan talks. The challenge is what is the right framework which will set onditions for those talks . One of the tools that has been used is the military. There has been a ramping up of violence over the past year. The taliban have been hit ard. The Afghan Government and the u. S. Have been pushing up the violence. It certainly looks to me from the outside as if theres been an attempt to persuade them that you are hurting hard, you have to get serious at the negotiating table. The impression that i have had is the lower ranks of the taliban have been hit hard. They are aware of the mortality rates they are facing. I havent seen evidence of it affecting the strategic calculations that has persuaded anyone at the leadership level to change instructions they have been giving to the team in qatar. They have a lot of cannon fodder. When it comes to the decisions being made of the people in the sticks, in the districts of afghanistan, as to whether they are prepared to fight on or not, of course this an issue of the sense of the prospect of victory. That they will be able to move into the towns, but also, they are effect by the confidence in the movement. The confidence of the leadership, the confidence of the sacrifice they are making. They talk about their sacrifices, since they are being respected and honored. You have to look closely to see whats going on, because theres no single story. Theres this idea that the taliban have the time. Afghanistan is dependent for its security. The withdrawal of the u. S. Inancial lifeline and military security would it would not be able to survive. The taliban know that. On the other hand, we have plenty over the country. Whether the taliban military command has found it tough to ersuade the guys to go and fight because they dont see the point. There are some places where we have seen an echo, back to where he can remember at the time of the soviet withdrawal, where the leaders might, they werent able to up the ante to increase the violence, because people were opting out. A violation of disaffection in the ranks and good statecraft by the people on the side ersuading that it is a local war, control over your area, you have islam, it is afghanistan, where we kill each other . That is one of the ways one of the dynamics in the fighting in afghanistan. One of the ways to rethink it and come back, the challenge being put out is how do you set the conditions for interafghan negotiations, productive interafghan negotiations that lead into a compromise settlement . It is ways of turning the violence down and getting the people to conclude that we are still telegram, but i am not going to be heading into burned down our District Center again to cause further loss to the state and be blown up and chased out the next day. The more we move, the more people are persuaded to take the decision, the more you set favorable conditions for the interafghan negotiations. We have documentary evidence that it is happening in parts of afghanistan, but is not been captured in parts. I also want to add my spin. The fundamental issue that was raised was there are different experiences in afghanistan. There are areas under taliban control. As the conversation has been in washington and afghanistan about preserving gains, some have gained and others have been iving in a different environment. I wonder if you have thoughts on the different experiences within afghanistan and whether that is an advantage for the Peace Process . Thank you. I think first of all, the areas under control, we have to be very careful about the control and influence. As michael also said, mortality is high on both sides. Future we are dealing with huge groups of children, dealing with them. They have it where the men and women exhaustion was the war it is impacting, impacting our ability. It is impacting futures verywhere. I think the sense it shares from something that happened at the local level. Maybe for the leadership, they think time is on their side. For the people dying on a daily basis, the time was perhaps years ago. Ts impacting the future everyone. Nd i think its among fighters that happened at the local level. That maybe for leadership, you know, they think they have the time on their side but people for the people dying on a daily basis, the time was perhaps years ago. The fact that it has been years and what it can mean that have existed and should expand. Would mean we will have it for all afghan. Access to health care, education, free media. Many that i know want to have the possibility to experience the opportunities. Besides increased opportunities, it is shaped by the fact that is a country. We are pursuing it not only for the experience but also to learn more about how to live around us and around the world and learn about different possibilities, aspirations. If you look at the kind of media projects, the lifestyles, it will have more space for people. More space to make decisions about their life. I think there might be attention in the sense that the most hardly hit areas by the conflicts have a greater sense of urgency in wanting an exit. Security is the first step. They want more than security, they want a life that will allow them to have aspirations, live life similar to people in other countries and across the world who have access to the freedom and services they think they deserve. Thank you very much. A Quick Response to the narrower question, how you get farflung taliban to lay down their arms if there is a piece deal. Two quick points, you can be confident that the taliban leadership will not sign a deal they cant deliver on, that their followers would not follow. They are very attentive to maintaining their cookies in. If they sign a deal that is going to divide the taliban and their followers will not follow, that would be devastating to them and they are not going to sign a deal that devastates them. Thats not a point of optimism. Thats a real reason why dealmaking will be hard. They want agree to a deal that they dont think they will deliver on and sell to their rank and file. The second put point is there will not be any Peace Enforcement mission. Not an area where a deal was signed and someone other than the taliban leadership enforces it, visavis the taliban rankandfile heard the implementation will depend on the leadership, enforcing it visavis the rankandfile. There will not be a peacekeeping mission, you will not have the u. S. Enforcing the deal, and the Afghan Government will be hardpressed to enforce the deal in areas that you described. You can see the numbers. From a taliban perspective, no deal is probably preferable to a deal. It is preferable to a deal that splits the taliban. The narrative that the government is dependent on outside assistance, therefore if the outside assistance is taken away, the taliban will win, is wrong. Its based on zerosum thinking. Its also why the taliban are negotiating. Its always the government of the future that needs eight. Even if its run by the taliban. The taliban were not highly successful when in control of the capital. They want to be part of a legitimize government that receives foreign assist us. The term control is also deceptive. It gives you an idea of a border. I cant give you numbers, but there are areas of afghanistan from we from which we have had reporting that the Security Forces, Police Administration is in the hands of the taliban, but they do not abolish the institutions of the afghans eight. Schools, health next continue running under their directions. They are much harsher about keeps her absentees than the government. In fact, theres a coexistence already in place. What we need to do is create the political conditions for that coexistence that will enable people to expand their rights. Will take a few questions once the gentleman the pen in the air. Sean carberry with the department of Defense Office inspector general. I want to pick up on something he just raised about the taliban not agreeing to a deal they cant sell to their people. That gets to the question of what is the zone of possible agreements between the parties . How big or how small is it, in terms of what the taliban can sell to their people, with the afghan elite can sell on their side, with the u. S. Can sell, and what constituencies can live with . No one will get the maximus decision. I want to get a sense of the areas where there is possible agreement, where are some of the things were there may not be when it may cause fragmentation to hold the support . Lets take one other question. My question is directed towards laurel. When u. S. Administration declared Operation Enduring freedom in 2001, and war on terrorism in afghanistan, the then first lady called it the process of liberation of women. This process has proven to be transformative. We witnessed 18 gradually progressive years in afghanistan one of the highlights of the process. Now after a very long course of time, we are again at the critical juncture with the women of afghanistan. Im concerned about women a lot and more than anything else. We the women of afghanistan are the criminal juncture of social and political existential stress and thinking the site 80 of afghanistan and taliban share over it. There is a fair that the democratic ideas of liberty and equality pertaining womens rights may fall back the shroud of the u. S. And disengagement of the u. S. In an. Can we say that women are yet again at stake of getting back to the darkest days of the history of afghanistan . Thank you. As mentioned before, people are following us on twitter. I want to read another western. What are the chances of revealing up on pakistan to stop supporting the taliban, which this commentor suggested is one of the only ways to get the taliban to buy into democracy those just go to address those russians, then we can get another round in before we close. Those are all good questions, and we dont have time to do them all good justice. The one referred to me, it was entirely understandable why women in afghanistan would be concerned about a Peace Process and what might come out of it. I understand that from a personal perspective and from policy perspective. I think from the of analyzing whether the u. S. Policy options and the u. S. Perceives it, and what the u. S. Is likely to do, it is important to remember the u. S. Did not invade afghanistan to liberate afghan women. Number two, the u. S. Will not make a decision about its exit from afghanistanbased fundamentally on considerations regarding afghan women. Im not saying that as a policy proposal prescription recommendation, im stating it as a policy reality in the rest there will be many who desire to minimize the impact on afghan women, preserve the protections for afghan women, but at the end of the day, the decisionmaking will be fundamentally about other issues related to the security of the u. S. , and not considerations related to women. We dont have time to address the comment, but very briefly, it is a difficult election to answer, because the taliban are not going into this negotiation if the negotiation happens with already developed political forms, unlike other Peace Processes in the world. The zone of the possible is going to have to emerge as the negotiations develop and the positions confront each other. Chances of pakistan stopping are slim. The more important point is if the u. S. Withdraws from afghanistan, stars to withdraw, abandons the Peace Process, the chances of pakistan ramping up its relationship with the taliban and increase considerably. Laura bush never gave such as before 9 11. If the u. S. Were going to invade to liberate afghan women, it had many opportunities to do so. That speech was to legitimate something for good reason. That reality is still real today. On the question of what the taliban leadership would sign off on, unfortunately, nobody still knows. We seem to be close to getting to know that, but we dont know that. We know some of their considerations. Prime consideration for maintaining the movement. They also want to project themselves as being on course to establishment of an Islamic Emirate or Something Like that. Whenever deal they want to do, they want to project themselves as being on course to receiving a full withdrawal. Those are the things they seem to have most concern of. Im worried about the question, which is negotiations and negotiated outcome are important, but they are not the whole thing in peacemaking. In afghanistan, setting the conditions were a negotiated outcome, now is a good time for everybody to reflect on what options there are to make progress on setting conditions. Even what barney referred to as the existence of this zone in afghanistan, where the war has moved on, that violence levels have started to come down. There are zones of government and taliban control. They have been developing some kind of modus vivendi. That is reminiscent of the post 1989 period. Clever people who are trying to plot away should be looking at what can be done to set the conditions without assuming that within one or two months you can actually jump straight to either the negotiate solution or even the negotiation to produce the solution . Maybe youre not going to jump quickly to the bargain, but there are important things that can be done to alter the dynamics of the conflict in afghanistan which put you on the progress towards conditions in which it is safe for the u. S. To withdraw. One more round of questions. Im with the inspector general. How will holding or not holding the upcoming afghan president ial election change the dynamics of political positioning, the potential interafghan dialogue if there is going to be one . Thank you. The gentleman in the white shirt. With everything happening with the camp david cancellation, the agreement dumped on the administration, the fallout with mostly the press and the International Community is focused on but a few other crosses to bear, your reflection, one, mike pompeo said he wouldnt sign the agreement a few days before, the taliban has not agreed to meet with the government, they have done so and are about to do so. The taliban also indicates the first time in the last round and not end the violence and we have a situation where trump needs a deal to be reelected, just got rid of bolton so things are a little more conducive with that respect but my question is the elections. If the taliban, especially in light of what you are saying about the important iterations from lower ranks, we all know these happen in afghanistan and increase in the runup. Will that not be crosscutting . How will that play . One more. I am director of a local ngo. My question, you seem pessimistic about pakistan and the Peace Process. Pakistan is a fundamental problem. The taliban are being harbored in pakistan. The iss is the main authority for the taliban. They said the taliban leadership were there. But whenever we had an offer for them, they need to go outside, they were like we have to speak with our leaders. But they were leaders. What is your proposal . There has to be a proposal to bring pakistan to the table to work for a peaceful outcome of the process. Start with michael and work our way back. I think the work to put together a regional consensus is important. That is one of the points i am saying it has to be built on, rather than just scrapping. Keep not just pakistan but other players at the table. Most of the Taliban Movement is close to being as resentful as perhaps you might be yourself. No one has come up with a strategic level way of making use of that. I think if we do see progress towards reduction of violence over the next year or so it will be more attention. I think that was like slapping on the wrist. I mean, i was saying the war fatigue isnt a strategy. Its not sufficient but its an important ingredient with the right policy from an institution is something which can be exploited. When proafghan sentiment inside the ranks of the taliban, when that is capitalized on in ways reminiscent of what happened in the period 89 and 92, perhaps violent levels will come down. Over the past year we have seen an attempt to capitalize on the cohesiveness of the movement, of the Strategic Decisions making the wise strategic decision from the taliban leadership to embrace peace on a compromise settlement and we have gambled on that. Now, it hasnt happened yet and maybe they will do it and that is a test that i hope they will be subjected to again and again, but the more they are forced to worry that our ranks, the people who have kept the fighting going, the people who give us our leverage, they are starting to opt out, that theyre going to go cool on the war. The more they worry about that, the more there is a chance that actually actually conditions are set and actually embrace a compromise solution for the negotiating table that so far has been elusive. The main variable about the elections will affect the process is not taliban violence. The taliban never gave any indication that they would reduce violence if the elections were postponed or canceled. Thats the reasons we were having the elections. And in the past it has not been decisive. The question about the elections is there may be voting but will there be an election . If the voting leads to a relatively quick choice of a president , which is accepted by the major nontaliban Political Forces in the country, then it will strengthen the government as president ghani envisions. But that has not been the history of president ial elections in afghanistan thus far. If the election is contested, there are charges of corruption and it is not accepted by major Political Forces, then there could be a relatively long several months period of contestation, perhaps demands for for a second round which the government may or may not accept, in which case the divisions within the Coalition Opposing the taliban, the constitutional coalition, will become stronger. Really a lot depends on the outcome and conduct of the elections. As far as pakistan is concerned, i think pakistan remains pakistan, and it is not going to change into another country that does not have antagonism with india or problems with afghanistan. Afghanistan remains landlocked and afghanistan cannot have a future that is based on strategic antagonism with pakistan. So somehow or other, hopefully through regional cooperation, and the involvement of third parties, notably china, because china is there probably unlike the United States. Afghanistan and china, afghanistan and pakistan will find a way of living with the differences but it will not be because pakistan has transformed into a country that does not have any with afghanistan. I fully agree with those comments. Im not at all dismissive of the problem. The problems that are raised by the interests that pakistan perceives in afghanistan. I am dismissive of the idea all it takes is for the United States to say no, or to impose some sanctions on pakistan, that that is what it will take to fundamentally change their strategic calculation. The question of whether secretary pompeo website or not, i think the story was mischaracterized and got out of control. It was not that he wasnt going to sign off on the deal. It was there were questions as to the formalities of who would be signing on behalf of the United States, and its more than formalities. Its also symbolism. If i were in the state department, i would recommend secretary pompeo not sign the deal. I dont think this is an agreement that should be sign at the level of secretary of state. I think that would only be another feather in the cap for the taliban, to have a podium like this where secretary pompeo is sitting next to whoever. This is an agreement that should be signed in a more low key way by the envoy who negotiated. I dont think there is a substantive issue there. Great, thank you. Im glad you are back. I dont know if you heard the question. They were more about elections, but in pakistan. Why dont we just give you a minute as we close for any final thoughts. Thank you. I think there is some development. Some concerns but also an opportunity. I think the main opportunity is for the afghan, especially the taliban. If they are concerned about engaging with majority of afghans they need to reevaluate their approach and they need to, especially reevaluate their engagement thank you very much. Please join me in thanking this great panel for a deep discussion on afghanistan Peace Process. [applause] let me close by saying that one sign of progress is that we can have nearly continuous two hour video link with somebody with high quality in afghanistan, so things are improving. Thanks very much, shaharzad for staying up late talking to us. Finally the conversation continues on afghanistan next thursday clock to 12 30 p. M. We will host the launch of new Lessons Learned report on reintegration of taliban fighters, what happened in the past. This will be hopefully useful lessons for the future because there will be fighters to integrate. With that thank you very much for joining us and see you at the next one. [applause] senator Elizabeth Warren is in new york city to speak to voters. A watch live at 7 p. M. Eastern on cspan. Live at 9 p. M. , President Trump holds a rally in rio rancho new mexico outside of albuquerque. 18 of the 2020 democratic residential candidates will speak at the polk county democratic steak fry and iowa. Watch live coverage saturday at 2 p. M. Eastern on cspan, online listen. N. Org, or campaign 2020. Make up your own mind. Your unfiltered view of politics. Fda commissioner ed sharpless talks about the Important Mission the research plays in the fdas clinic clinics and trials. [applause] good afternoon. Thank you for that warm introduction. Its great to be here. I want to thank every researcher in america for convening this forum, but also for its longterm leadership in recognizing the need for Quality Research in medicine and health. I started my career as an researcheromedical and doctor. I took care of