Steve joining us on newsmakers is jb poersch. He is the president of the Senate Majority pack. Thank you for joining us. J. B. thank you, steve. Steve let me begin with the Senate Republican leader up for reelection in kentucky. We have not seen him public in the last month because he fractured his shoulder as a result of a fall that took place in louisville at his home. What can we expect when he comes back and sizes up that race against mcgrath . J. B. i think when we come back in the senate, obviously the first focus is going to be this s the legislative session to follow a month of gun violence in several cities around the country. So i expect a serious conversation inside the enate. I think where we are with americans is that theres more of an expectation that somethings going to get done, and i think both caucuses are going to feel some pressure for some, not just overall result, cosmetic results, but they want to see something that goes toward gun violence and gun safety. Steve is amy mcgrath of the strongest candidate . J. B. i think shes a very strong candidate. I think she ran well. She fell short in a really tough district. She has a terrific story to tell about her time in the military. Right now, it seems shes the likely candidate to take on Mitch Mcconnell and theres a ot of enthusiasm for it. Shes obviously been raising strong money for it and shes going to be a handful for leader mcconnell. Teve but quickly, are there lessons from five and a half ago when there was the other campaign against senator mcconnell . J. B. well, i think for the candidates, i think amy mcgrath, by nature, will demonstrate discipline as a candidate and i expect hat. But lets not kid ourselves. This is a race thats very much about Mitch Mcconnell in a state that obviously donald trump won by 30. 5. Senator mcconnells very unpopular. Nd uniquely unpopular, where his job numbers are in the low 20s, even in the teens. And this isnt something weve een for some time. He is uniquely vulnerable and it shapes up to be an interesting race. Steve what is his biggest eakness . What are you going after . J. B. i think its going to be hard for him to make a claim that kentuckians believe he is still rooted in his own state and his own state is his main focus. It wont surprise me if the ampaign shifts to one where he makes his focus about delivering for donald trump, hoping that trumps far more popular than he is. But his hard argument is about whether he has gone washington beyond the point where he cant be saved anymore. Steve let me turn to my colleagues. I want to ask you about the politics of gun control. Which as you said is the legislative priority for democrats this month. The senate map is concentrated on republicanleaning states, battleground states, like arizona, georgia, north carolina. Gun control is a fraught issue for democrats. Are you convinced or are you encouraging democrats to aggressively tackle the issue, even in states where its been challenging to talk about these issues . J. B. i think voters see the conversation thats happening, especially the idea thats coming from most democrats as reason, this conversation around background checks normally has public support, nationally, 75 80 of the opulation. Certainly, voters want to make sure the conversation goes comprehensively and not just to gun safety and gun iolence. But i think not only is americans ready for it, i think youre going to see theyre xpecting action. Would you encourage Democratic Candidates to actively campaign on the issue . J. B. i would encourage both democrats and republicans to find answers to this that includes background checks. Steve crystal hayes. Crystal i also wanted to ask, of course guns are going to be a big focus. Going into 2020. What are some of the other issues you guys plan to focus on in ads or some of the main themes . J. B. the economy is never going to go far in any federal lection. In particular, and this one, in this one, it will be on peoples minds, where donald trump and the republicans will argue its a great economy. Ut for a lot of americans, theyre still wondering why they havent benefited from it more. Health care was a prime point in 2018. You have no reason to believe that it wont be an equally hot issue in 2020. And the fact that republicans, all these years later, or so are so reluctant to go on record with anything. Most of them are on record as being for plans that risk ccess. Crystal on gun control, we heard murmurs the senate could pass something. It may not be sweeping background checks, but if they pass something, would that take the pressure off them as we head into j. B. i would warn senators on both sides you cant put lipstick on this pig if you can just get away. Some of the more shallow stuff about red flags and trying to detour the conversation, thats not going to be enough. Talk about the senate map a little bit. How realistic is it for democrats to take back the majority . And how much interplay will there be between the president ial campaign and the senate race . J. B. this does look like a map thats primarily about first and second president ial battleground, different from the map the senate fought on just two years ago, where democrats were defending 26 democrats, nine of whom were in trump states. Alabama was the 10th. His time, were only defending nine, two incumbents are in trump states. I think that was likely the ajority of focus and the opportunity for democrats to pick up the majority. That number is either three or four, depending on who the president is. And its very much within our grasp. How much concern is there that if democrats nominate someone more progressive, may be running on issues that are not necessarily popular in some of these battleground states, how much worry do you have that someone like Elizabeth Warren would cost democrats . J. B. i think this is a conversation, is a democratic candidate going to be able to talk and connect with americans and connect with their hallenges . This isnt about politics. This is about putting meat and potatoes on the table that voters really want to see. Youre not concerned about who the candidate would be . J. B. so far, this has been a competitive field. It seems its going to go on for a while. I dont think theres a clear candidate either way. And the more point here is that it feels as if voters are looking for an alternative to donald trump, and i think theyre going to find it in this process. Steve to that point, two senate races, very competitive one with doug jones seeking election in alabama. How do you approach those Southern States . J. B. josh has written about georgia and i think is hes right. I think georgia is a really Good Opportunity for democrats. Our own internal data suggests a really competitive situation. I obviously have more data about senator perdue, the republican, his seat, and the one newly created. I think is early. I think seats, the candidates, i think this is still going to ake shape. There is a primary in the perdue seat. I think youre going to see good candidates. Were going to have to compete ere and we will. Crystal can you kind of outline some of the main states youre going to be focusing on, some of the best chances . J. B. i think when it comes to picking up seats, colorado is an attractive opportunity here. I think cory gardner has worked himself into a situation where he comes off very much as an inside washington, within his own party, has shown his allegiance to the president. I think he ran as an independent. But in a state like colorado, that has grown more democratic and more progressive, hes gotten more away from state, thats a Good Opportunity for democrats, certainly arizonas really competitive. We have confidence because we eat Martha Mcsally once. I expect that to be the case again. I think general kelly is a terrific candidate. And youll see places like north carolina, maine, iowa, and i hope even texas and georgia. Crystal we were talking about some of the candidates. Can you talk about recruitment and candidates within those states you just identified . Theres not strong condates in every single one of those races. Can you talk about recruitment . J. B. i think candidates will grow, but there are several good candidates across the country that have been excited to see fresh faces, women in many places, veterans. I think some of the new energy that was so key in the house, where democrats picked up 40 seats, is demonstrative in some of the recruiting thats occurred here. As i suggested earlier, i dont think every field is set. That is certainly the case for both seats in georgia. N general, candidates like perhaps teresa greenfield in iowa, mark kelly, who we already talked about, and even john hickenlooper, the former governor, these are all good candidates and give us good pportunities to win. Steve you mentioned maine, and the senator said he would not hesitate to campaign for Susan Collins. Your reaction. B. well, i think in general, Susan Collins and past races, has won by comfortable margins. This will be her looking for the 30th year in the senate. Its been a long run and i think youre going to find mainers asking the question about what they are getting out of the deal. Think they are more likely to see her as making an effort to work with the other side. But voters in maine dont see her as being a real answer to trump. And i think being on the ballot with donald trump, it was certainly hard for a senator like kelly ayotte just four years ago. I think its going to be a particular challenge for her. And this is going to turn out to be a competitive race. Steve would you advise senator manchin not to campaign against fore her . J. B. i would advise him not to. Hes headstrong. Hes from a tough state. Im very glad that hes decided to remain in the senate, not run as a governor. He indicated last weekend he was doing it because he knows that he matters in the senate. But well see. Josh why have so many compelling Senate Recruits like Stacey Abrams in georgia, Steve Bullock in montana, beto orourke in texas, decided not to run for senate and longshot president ial campaigns . Abrams has two opportunities and passed on both of them. What is making it not as intriguing . J. B. ive been around this for a while. It doesnt feel drastically different from any other party. Not every candidate says yes. And the president ial ring has always been attractive. And people seem eager to try it on. What i think is different is the organic feedback that a lot of those president ial candidates get around the country, and even in their own states, where they say hey, why arent you thinking about the senate . Were happy with the field of candidates we have. If some of these candidates want to continue to consider t, thats ok, too. Changed his oper mind about running for colorado. You think any of the other candidates will do the same . J. B. i dont know if either one is. You have to take them at their ord. Governor bullock and former congressman beto seem focused on the president ial races. Beto is going to be on stage in a week or so for that debate. And yet, the senate, because of what it means around judges, what it means around cabinet positions, and certainly this concept that Nancy Pelosis been aggressive in moving legislation and getting to the desk of Mitch Mcconnell and everything dies, those are compelling reasons. Well see if folks get in. Christal can you talk a little bit about texas . Do you think its a long shot or do you think this could be the year it turns blue . Can you outline the differences between 2018 cruz . Steve and a number of texas House Republicans are stepping down, how that affects the dynamic. B. i do, even though you hear it said the state is changing and changing quickly. But the most powerful evidence is really in betos race last time. Hat you saw in the results when you polled it is that hispanic turnout was predictably what youd expect for an off year election and yet you saw a boom in the vote outside in those suburbs of san antonio, of houston, and also in dallas. The bigger numbers than i think voters are really changing. I think these changes are systemic. This is a transient vote. Yes, it is high educated. Yes, women are a big part of it, but its going very growing very quickly. And the idea that i think we can motivate hispanic voters to be a big part of the president ial, gives me hope the change were seeking in texas can come next year. Christal when you look at all the issues of gun violence there, two Mass Shootings in the past couple weeks, is that going to happen or trump being on the ballot, immigration, kind of negated . What is your outlook . J. B. i think when you look back, people are surprised trump is in a halfpoint margin. Texas was a bigger. Certainly, his Job Performance numbers havent been particularly compelling in texas all along, even before these shootings. And i would expect thats not a particularly strong entry point to the president. I dont know to the extent it will be competitive in the president ial, but i expect it will be tighter than it was at that level. That creates an opportunity for the house races you mentioned, steve. And i do for the senate. I also think that people in washington, the city that gets nearly everything wrong, misunderstands the race from before. Cruz, for all his faults, was reasonably popular the entire time. His Job Performance was somewhere between 4950 , and that brings us to john cornyn, whos not, despite his years around, not somebody who is particularly well defined, and seems to be go along, get along, special interest kind of guy, not particularly popular. He is some kind of vulnerable. Steve do you have an estimate of how much you will raise and spend next year . J. B. i dont have a dollar figure. We were quite lucky to be successful raising funds last cycle, the super pac been that i managed was 167 million. Id like to get there again. Its a little too early to say that. But obviously, one, were ahead of fundraising figures and two, thats a very excited and hopeful Democratic Base out there. Josh in 2018, so many of the Democratic Candidates ran for congress didnt talk about trump at all. Hes going to be on the ballot, though, in 2020. Do you expect trump to come up here because hes a defining force in the upcoming election . J. B. its hard not to talk about the elephant in the room. I think hes certainly going to be talked about more in senate races because i really do believe for this set of incumbents, most of them are firstterm incumbents, most of them vulnerable because theyve only been there one term or they are not particularly well defined. The subtle conversation underneath is, are these republican senators any answer back to the president . The most common language you hear voters say about this lot of republicans is theyre followers, again, go along, get along. I think they expect more and i ink republicans will have a real difficult time showing any level of independence. Trump is part of that conversation. Josh youve done a lot of polling on focus groups. How would you describe the groups that are winnable . J. B. probably not as small a pool as we keep saying. It cant be possible that in 2016, that people were changing their minds up to the last minute and then report after report makes you believe theres only three or four undecided people in the whole country. I do think people are open to debate, somewhat weary about this. Yes, you know, when i listen, when i have the opportunity to listen to voters around the ountry, there are partisans, but a lot of people are still concerned about where were going, economically and otherwise. Steve you just returned from a focus Group Thursday evening in deprand rapids, michigan. Tell us what you learned. J. B. focus groups are one way to listen to voters. That was certainly part of the conversation. I think that in michigan, they realized theyre about to be center of the world and is likely to be a competitive state in the president ial. I think they take that responsibility seriously. I think they see the economy improved, but theres concern that i suggested. Look at michigan. It doesnt look like weve had significant move forward with the auto economy. It seems to be getting worse instead of better. So, certainly that level of economic anxiety still exists. And i think thats part of the reason why the president ial will be competitive. We have an incumbent senator, gary peters, who is wellliked, a veteran, a former teacher. There seems to be an interest that they keep him. There is not an easy argument why you want to replace him, especially given the current situation. Christal when you kind of look at these attacks from republicans, and also the president , on labeling all democrats as socialists, do you have a strategy are you preparing to defend against that . And did you hear any of that . Have you heard from voters . J. B. no. Thats funny, very little feedback on it. Republicans themselves were more wound up in dropping that, but i think somewhere along the line, theyre beginning to realize people dont know what theyre talking about. I think that the idea that they have to push back and argue that democrats offered this all pervasive government has the answer to everything. Im not convinced youre going to hear that from most candidates, let alone any of the candidates. I do think that youre going to see some outofthebox solutions from this set of Democratic Candidates, both president ial and the senate. Christal i noticed theres been more of a focus on mcconnell, it seems, than trump on the 2020 trail. Is that going to be a strategy to kind of focus on him in a lot of these races and will it help . We kind of saw that in 2018, focusing on pelosi. I know theres obviously a difference there, but can you outline whether you think that is a strategy and whether it will work . J. B. most things that have power, politically, dont come as strategies from washington. They come organically around the country. And Mitch Mcconnell is a very powerful metaphor for a broken ashington. And hes carrying that now more than whatever. And certainly, even among republicans, a certain borderline anger at their own party that they just keep saying more of the same. Theyre not completely shielding it from whatever donald trump takes. I think mcconnell is a face of a lot of the chaos and disarray. But more to the point, the broken Washington People are tired of. Steve senator mcconnell said he would not hesitate to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court if there is a vacancy. How big of an issue is that for voters . J. B. even if youre a republican or a conservative, youre certainly aware of the hypocrisy, and that brings it right back to the business as usual mentality of washington. I think youre going to be surprised at the number of candidates that are going to find themselves trying to distance themselves from Mitch Mcconnell. Josh will your group get involved in democratic primaries . Also the republican primaries. In alabama, one is still hanging out. Would you consider getting involved . Trying to help . B. i think the data that existed, the majority p. A. C. , we havent been in a democratic primary. Im not one to take any options off the table. Well see what happens in the future, but its not our ant. I wake up every morning thinking about, are we going to beat republicans . Josh you think its wise to pick favorite candidates . I know the sec endorsed hickenlooper, even with a credit field. What do you think of the logic of that . J. B. theres some endorsements, obviously still the primaries. I think that the f. C. C. And the Democratic Party in general wants to have opinions. These are high risk. We already talked about the stakes at play. Dfcc to grudge the make sure we want to get them the best candidate. Give them an opportunity to raise money, and an opportunity to win. Steve about a minute left. Christal i want to talk about some of the candidates youre still talking with or being recruited, do you see any shift in the types of candidates that you all are talking with . Is there more progressives oming out . J. B. well, i think that among he candidates that are running, that it runs a lot. I dont think democrats are afraid of progressive nature. Youve seen several candidates that arent necessarily longtime experienced candidate. And then you have somebody like governor hickenlooper, who even though hes been in colorado as overnor, people see him as somebody thats a little outside the box. Candidates ypify the running that way, as well. More than anything, theres a Certain Energy here that were eager for change. Democrats want to see the senate empowered and they want to see a democratic majority. Steve still 14 months away, but define a great night for your p. A. C. In november. J. B. it would be winning the majority. It doesnt mean i can guarantee this far out that we can get there, but i think historically, four seats pickup for either party is more than possible. The average is higher than that. Loved to get to majority. Steve and the chance of defeating Mitch Mcconnell, what are the odds . J. B. i think its hard. Nate silver said if it 1520 to start. That may not be far off. It is a hard race. I expect that it is getting better. What is interesting is, simultaneously true, this race may already be in single digits. Steve jb poersch, thank you president of the Senate Majority p. A. C. , thank you for oining with us on newsmakers. As we continue the conversation, christal hayes, let me begin with you, your takeaway. What did you learn . Christal i think looking at texas in this race and knowing democrats feel this is a Seismic Shift in texas and moving forward, that it really could come more of a blue state. Looking forward to this race, right now we dont have a main highlight candidate for democrats. I think that will be interesting moving forward, seeing how much money poured pours into those races in texas. Not just the senate but also the house, too. Steve he made reference to your reporting in georgia. How big of a blow for Stacey Abrams not deciding to get into the race with two states on balance . Josh thats a big blow. It was her great opportunity to win in this statewide election. Because the fundraising ability, she has the organization. Shes looking to run for governor. Instead in 2022. That speaks to the challenge Senate Democrats face. You have these candidates that can win in red states, and they are choosing to run for president or even in abrams case, not run at all. Steve what about alabama . Josh alabama is going to be a difficult race just because its so conservative. It will be interesting to see if Senate Majority p. A. C. Tries to amplify morris campaign. Hes running again. Hes the one candidate that can lose in atlanta. I think you might see some funny business from the democratic side. Steve how big of a factor the Republican Senate will be. On the ballot across the country, can you address that . Josh Mitch Mcconnell is almost a more potent name for democrats than donald trump, especially in these more moderate, conservative leaning states. I expect mcconnells race to be one where a lot of money is point of order in. Hes a money is poured in. Hes clearly the favorite. Amy mcgrath stumbled a bit as she started her campaign. But mcconnell reflects everything that the democrats have problems with what was going on on capitol hill, and i think will not just be brought up in kentucky but a National Symbol for democrats. Christal and weve seen that, right, in the 2020 pool . The president ial candidates have been mentioned him more. As we get into this gun debate in congress as they come back from recess, were going to hear more and more. Steve and he seems to embrace the moniker, grim reaper. Josh well, mcconnell always said the leader is not popular. You will always suffer politically. Pelosi in the same position in the house. So mcconnell has always had tough races. Hes had competitive races back home. I think democrats have to figure out how much to run on policy, how much to run on issues Like Health Care and the economy and how much on personally. It is a tricky balance. Steve they are back this week after a fiveweek recess. What do we expect . Christal youll hear a lot about guns. Thats not a surprise. Theres going to be press conferences, speeches, and even the house judiciary is scheduled to markup a few bills. Those wont be taken up in the senate. The senate is talking possibilities. Weve seen some reporting from the New York Times and politico about some of the ideas floating around the white house that might be possibilities. But talking to people on capitol hill, it seems very unknown. And its all going to come from the white house. When we get a more clear view of things, as to where republicans are in the senate, it should be interesting. Josh a quick followup. Steve we have been here before with the gun debate. Is this different . Josh i thought it was interesting that j. B. Didnt promise democrats in these districts were going to run on gun control. In these races, i think arizona is going to big one because mark kelly, it is a big story of his story, his biography. But there is reticence among liberalminded democratic strategists about whether aggressive gun control can play in these battleground states. That is what is on trumps mind and the white house is wary of measures being proposed. Steve agree or disagree . Christal yeah, i think it will be interesting if the Senate Takes Action how that will go into the 2020 cycle. If they take some steps, if it is not sweeping background checks, what that would mean for the race and whether it would help or hurt. It will be interesting. Steve well give you the final word. Josh well, the senate in play, i think there is going to be a lot of attention paid to the senate, especially if trump stumbles in the president ial election. I think democrats are going to be in reach of getting a Senate Majority, even though it is a little bit of a challenge. Steve we follow your work at national journal. Com and usa today. Com. To both of you, thank you for joining us on newsmakers. Christal thank you. Kopp kopp [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org]