Of an immigrant who violated u. S. Sanctions against iran. This Panel Discussion is an hour. Good morning. Thank you for joining us. Im the director of National Security here at the bipartisan policy center. Im please to some people are still hungry for turkey. That was my only thanksgiving joke. I am sorry. I will leave it at that. Were here to discuss the case, where in the world is today was supposed to be the start of the trial in new york in the case of a businessman, who has seemingly disappeared. And the question of why in this ase which in bobs allegations he helped iran evade u. S. Sanctions against iran. Why is that a Sticking Point for u. S. Turkish relations . Im pleased to have an expert panel to discuss that. I wanted to announce a couple of products the bpc is putting out today. We have an explainer to explain what the case is and we are launching a Broad Initiative looking at power and corruption in erdogans turkey. E are launching an interactive feature on our website which is focused on the case and allows you to explain the links between his review people. Libby go to our panel. Now writing for a new panel, the Central Asia Caucasus Institute and member of the turkey task force. Bpcs very own nick danforth, expert on all things turkish. With that, let me start with you. Can you give us a summary of hat the case is about . Sure. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation. He got arrested in 2016. He became very famous in turkey. I think he stayed in jail in turkey a couple of months. Then, he was forgotten in turkey but he still is married to a popstar in turkey. More or less he has been on the turkish agenda since 2013. He got arrested. It was a shock to everyone. He has been in jail since then. We do not know if he is still in jail but we know for sure he is under u. S. Federal custody now. There are lots of speculations they are using a hotel or somewhere else. That has been 4 indictments. The first came after reza zarrab was arrested. The second one came a year ago before the u. S. Elections expanded included his brother. And the third, when the second person got arrested. E is also in jail. Nd the fourth just came up early september, the most expanded one, and included a finance minister, plus the general manager of a bank, a turkish public bank. And the International Deputy general manager who was taking care of the international banking. A total of nine people. T really hit turkey. What is he charged with . There are six counts and charges. It is one of them, conspiracy against the United States. Basically the United States. The second is banking. Defrauding u. S. Banking. The other is moneylaundering. The fourth is it will come back to me. There are experts say if the judge counts every transaction, it could be really long. Which is how these things go. We are looking at more than a century of jail sentence. All of this are allegations of ourse. The police and prosecutors launched those investigations also dismissed them. Here, 20 months later we have seen dozens of trials, conferences and hearings but we have not so far had a committed person. These are allegations. He alluded to the back story of this and reza zarrabs arrest in turkey. Can you talk about the concept of that . The case of reza zarrab is if you are in turkey or the United States you are living on different planets in many ways. What you interpret when you see the case, the details, they are different. It is an issue of trust at the end of the day and the complete lack of trust, and deep suspicion that exists mainly from turkey. That you cant understand the case without understanding the movement and conflict between president erdogan and the movement in turkey. From the superficial American Perspective this is an issue of corruption and sanctions. Therefore, this is a legal case that has its judicial process. Im not saying anyone is purely out of politics but it is mainly a legal case. This is not only manipulating political things but we have to remember the way the whole case came out was by the december 2013 raid targeted at president erdogan and his proxies. Family members and close ssociates. Built up in turkey but, the allegations focus particularly on those issues that were the most damaging from an American Perspective. We had the cases of Al Qaeda Linked saudi financiers. We also had the issues of the iran sanctions. The fact that these raids target those things, not just ordinary corruption, but things that would be damaging internationally for erdogan are important. The prosecutors involved were affiliated with the movement. This is why it was understood by supporters as a judicial coup. This is the background to how they see it. Obviously following this we have weve had elections. We had a coup last year that erdogan was strong evidence the movement he says it was all about the golan movement. It was much broader than that and complicated than that but, in any case, from the perspective of him and his supporters when reza zarrab gets arrested in the United States and indicted, this is not just an ordinary legal procedure. This is about a continuation of the coup against him. But we have to understand, and may most people may not need formally internalizing, from erdogan and his supporters perspective he is not an economist actor. Autonomous actor. How Conspiracy Theory pervades hinking. This is about a continuation of the coup against him. But we have to understand, and may most people may not need formally internalizing, from erdogan and his supporters perspective he is not an economist actor. Autonomous actor. How Conspiracy Theory pervades thinking. The interesting part about his book, the arab and iranian world, there was an appendix about turkey that said its not relevant for turkey now but it may be in the future. Everything in the book is about conspiracy theories. Whether we agree or disagree we have to understand for erdogan and his supporters, it is an american controlled operation and it is an american coup against him. From that perspective what were seeing happening in new york is part and parcel of an american effort to overthrow him. Im not saying i agree, but we have to understand that this is not just propaganda thing for erdogan and his media. They use poppa granda phase pop they use propaganda effectively. Could you talk about how this turkish view of what the case is about has played out . Sort of where it might go from here . I will followup on what he as saying. Right now were in a situation where people in turkey, not just people reading the papers, but people in the note states are living in different realities in regards to this case in the context of the u. S. Turkish elationship. This case is worth looking at both how this helps perpetuate those different realities and exacerbate many of the deep divides in u. S. Turkish relations. But also to show be on this issue, how the incipient divergent opinions about turkeys role in the world, going back to 2012, 2013 when this case came into being, how this case and the crisis we find ourselves in now was the result of a growing divergence that predates it. In that regard i would say from the knighted states perspective people look at this as a simple legal matter. They violated u. S. Law, now they are being tried in u. S. Court. The turkish response has been what right does america have two make it against the law for us to do business with iran . This was a bilateral trade between two sovereign countries. Why is this in violation of u. S. Law . I think it is worth acknowledging where this argument is coming from. Certainly the United States does have the unique ability to make our National Interests into a matter of universally enforceable law. If this was paraguay and i ron iran, he would not be facing trial now. That only goes so far. The point is also worth mentioning, a problem goes back o how they approach this issue in 2012. They may not have agreed with United States laws, at the time they made it clear they did have concerns about u. S. Sanctions. At the point when the sanctions were put in place where people in the turkish government and Banking Sector new the laws were in place, they were aware of the consequences of breaking hem. At that point the decision to go ahead with this scheme, to support reza zarrab, was taken with the knowledge that this was against u. S. Laws. That is why they try to hide these actions. There is in this context something problematic about presenting the consequences turkey not just individual citizens but the entire turkish economy is now facing as result of these actions as a conspiracy against turkey. Im sure they genuinely believe they were doing it for turkish National Interests. Whether or not they agree with them some of they should realize were going to have onsequences. I would make a similar point about the broader geopolitical context in which this has happened. Turkey has had a complicated relationship with iran. They have been rivals for centuries. At the time the scheme was taking place turkey was in considerable tension with iran visavis their divergent positions in the syrian civil war. Turkey solve the geopolitical benefits of maintaining a functional relationship and helping iran evade u. S. Sanctions. This has been a matter of considerable outrage for many in the United States to which people in turkey pointed out they are not the worst or only country to maintain relationships with a nasty regime. Turkey is not the first country to maintain good relations with oppressive states with a long history of promoting islamic extremism. However, this happened in the context of turkey being a nato ally. In the context of turkey being irans neighbor, turkey, had it not been for their membership, they would have had every reason to be terrified. O country would be excited about a neighbor developing a nuclear weapon. The reason they were not as concerned, it was a nato member. It had nato protecting it from nuclear weapons. The fact that it had a time when they were relying on turkey protection, for it to take action than that undermined nato country efforts to stop Irans Nuclear program, it seems like a deep file asian of the spirit of the alliance. I think that is an interesting issue. Maybe we can look at this uestion and how that shifted. It also gets us to events of the last couple of days. Erdogan going to so chan. The phone call friday, what that might be about. We can bracket those issues and talk about the case itself and what it means. Lets start with this. You mentioned one issue. For much of the last year, when urkey has talked about concerns, it has been talking about the extradition. It hasnt talked about the reza zarrab issue until recently. Why is that . Is there a greater emphasis, more concern about google and gulen reza zarrab then . There is an exception and up session. Erdogan was the person who enabled the goal line ovement. What turned out was that there was a power struggle between these two elements. That struggle has almost destroyed the turkish state. That is damaging because everybody understands he was the person who enabled. The rise of Gulen Movement started in the 1980s. It suited his interests at the time. A lot of people, i talked to every good friend last week. A secularist to said we need rdogan because hes the only person who can get rid of Gulen Movement. It is very strange. The assumption is that he hasnt done that yet . Yes. A lot of state groups have been purged. What im trying to get to is that maintaining the pressure on he issue is for the regime stability a necessity but also something that unites him with is new coalition partners. His earlier coalition was based on conservatives, liberals and kurds. It has now been turned into a Tactical Alliance with eonationalist forces. Deeply nationalists. They are highly skeptical if not hostile to the United States and the west. This focus unites them. I would say tensions with United States and the suspicion this case generates strengthens the power of these neonationalist forces in the turkish overnment. If you want to speculate, do you think, erdogan really wants them back . Is it just this technical political ploy . I do believe you once and back. Threes and i believe that, the latest revelations on how he tried to get him if you are to believe the claims, they have not been confirmed yet but, i think the government has been wanting him back but at the same time, rather he wants more is he question. Again, we now know that in september of 2016 when the president spoke to President Biden after the coup, 65 days after the coup, the trauma was still being felt very much in turkey. In this meeting he talked about reza zarrab the reza zarrab case. I think he wants him back but more than happy to hear about this for you, but i guess would you agree with that assessment . Why would he want him more than gulen . Turkey was involved in undermining ally interest with iran, or is there something greater . This is one of the strange things that i think people in washington have wondered about. There has been in private meetings, he has been very focused on this. He is one of the case to go to way. Yet, why is not immediately understandable to people outside of turkey. This case could confirm the corruption allegations. One of the consequences is this could give a newfound legitimacy where has previously he has been able to dismiss them. Y something has been any revelations that would come out f this would be easy for erdogan, given his effective use f rhetoric to dismiss. It on seems like he is more concerned about the potential revelations than people from the outside think he needs to be. This is people trying to understand why this might be the case, that if a case proves that turkish banks are involved in sanction busting there could be heavy fines levied against turkish banks. It is still not clear to me, even worth the case to result in fines, it seems odd he would deal with that case making the case try to go way. Any fines that would come out of this would be ones that the state department could mitigate. So, i dont actually have a reat answer for why this has been as sensitive as it seems to be. I think the reason he has been worried is he might be talking to prosecutors. Which now every indication is he is talking to prosecutors. We dont know the deal. If he is talking to prosecutors he has to give up everything. Everything . Names, people who work with him in the scheme, so that probably is going to implicate a lot of key officials, key allies people like amandas loss. It might indicate implicate erdogans soninlaw. I think that is why he is sensitive to possible things he ight be talking. Maybe dozens of allies will have a lot of limitations inside or utside turkey. I think i agree. He appears to be very concerned. I think it is because he sees this as a gateway to something that will hit closer to home. Family members, something else. I dont know. I dont know what reza zarrab knows, but it is important to look at this in context. He should not need to be this concerned. He is weaker than he looks. He looks like an especially after the coup. If you scratch the surface a little, the dirty secret i keep talking about, he never had enough people to run the turkish state. He always had to rely on others. That was rationale for bringing in the Gulen Movement. When he speaks of them he did not have enough have enough filled. He had to lean on the nationalists to run various state agencies. That is one thing. The other thing is, in spite of the referendum, turkey is still not a president ial republic. It will only be after the next residential election. Everything he does is illegal. Every decision he takes him every time he calls up and undersecretary, that is illegal. That is the Prime Minister prerogative. Which is why he is worried about legal matters. We also know he almost lost power. He sensed he said his sons to live out of the country. I think his behavior suggests he actually has more reason to be concerned about these kind of things than what would appear to be the case. We have heard there might be some sort of deal brewing. I feel at we have been talking about this for a while. Why did reza zarrab come to the United States in the first place . He gets arrested for breaking u. S. Laws. He is released. Three years later he comes to miami to take his kids to disney world. We have been talking about a potential deal for a wild. Why do you think that might be happening now . Yes. There have been a lot of scenarios and speculation when he came here knowingly. I do not believe that scenario. I think he came not because i dont believe that scenario. I have seen messages published by the court that he was having fun talking until the last minute and we he was told about different ideas. That it has been months. If he came here to get a deal, expanding that much time in the jail. He would not be spending that much time in jail. He is on trial today. Yes. His lawyers have been battling fiercely. If it results against him that would weaken his defense because hes going to confirm much of the allegations against him. You raise the question of why he came to the u. S. Do you have an answer . I think he was 33, he got away with everything in turkey. Hes been rich all his life. He did not give good it get good advice from his lawyers. He came and told them these allegations and he told the u. S. According to some sources, he also checked his status. He got his visa and got on a plane. I think he thought that was no danger for him. Assuming there is a deal, what do you see as the legal consequences . Lots of unknowns. I have been talking to quite a few experts on that including financial crimes. It looks like if he got a deal, he would have to give up names and information. He needs to convince prosecutors he has good information. He needs to be qualified as substantial assistance that is either going to help u. S. Authorities, plus hes going to give intel information. Billions of money. Not only turkey, but people talking about malaysia, germany, he u. K. , dominica. There is a lot of players around the world now worried that reza zarrab might talk. He has been in jail for 20 months. If he gives good information, according to people who know these cases, he might get out soon. Maybe a couple of years. Let me ask you about the potential political consequences of the deal. You talked about how it might be seen from the turkish side. But also the u. S. Side. Will it matter for u. S. Turkish elations if there is a revelation of turkeys complicity in sanctions busting . Turkey would not be the first ountry to do business with a billions of money. Not only turkey, but people talking about malaysia, germany, the u. K. , dominica. There is a lot of players around he world now worried that reza zarrab might talk. He has been in jail for 20 months. If he gives good information, according to people who know these cases, he might get out soon. Maybe a couple of years. Let me ask you about the potential political consequences of the deal. You talked about how it might be seen from the turkish side. Ut also the u. S. Side. Will it matter for u. S. Turkish relations if there is a revelation of turkeys complicity in sanctions busting . Turkey would not be the first country to do business with a corrupt state. The u. S. Has done so plenty of times. Does this really matter for the United States . I would give two answers to that. The fact that this Company Country was iran will atter. Even before the most recent election in the United States, and afterwards certainly, one of the approaches turkey has used is to present itself as a potential ally in confronting iran the and regional influence. From the outset that might have been a tough sell. It didnt necessarily convince anyone turkey was going to be a strong supporter. Nonetheless, wanting to take a tougher line, it remains a sales pitch and were it to become so obvious turkey had been sabotaging our effort to constrain iran that would make hat difficult. More broadly, the details of the corruption and extent of the corruption are going to have an mpact. This is something we explore in the paper. Corruption and consequences. One of the things that seems most troubling is until now the knotted states frustrations have been couched in terms of policy goals. The United States wants turkish support. Turkey has refused. Corruption raises the issue of not simply about the decision to cooperate but if corruption becomes too systematic, turkey is no longer going to be will to walk rate with United States on key issues even when they have shared interests. Its one of the things, there was lots of frustration over isis but eventually turkey got on board and seem to be making enough for to confront isis. It has engaged in meaningful cooperation that helped western ighters. To the extent there judiciary becomes compromised, undermined by the purges to better get away with corruption, that is going to make this more difficult. That is a longterm issue that is going to have longterm consequences. That makes perfect sense. N the other hand, what erdogan would hear from what you said is just because i got rid of your guys in my police, you are now saying we have a problem with corruption. At least now i have people i can trust. We are back to the situation that we live in different worlds. The bigger problem also because what the gulenists misunderstood, when forced to choose, nobody really knows what they want, the majority of people often opted for erdogan. You may like them or dislike in but you know what he is. I think we have to understand this is for a lot of turkish public opinion, the coup is more alive than we think. For us the coup has morphed into being about his closed coup refracted repression. For most people this is not what is going on. It is still about the trauma. We dont understand that. The other part of that is the deal. If there is a deal. You will not be able to convince erdogan or his supporters that this is just a legal procedure. You will not be able to convince people this is not u. S. Policy. Whatever President Trump says, this is the United States going against turkey trying to turn his associates against him. And, i would not know where he will be able to go after this. I think i am not saying we can stop the process of justice. Im saying we have a train wreck. If a deal is struck you will have to react. How do we manage this process . How do we manage the longterm relationship with Turkish Society so the majority of turks dont see everything the United States does as being something that is scheming . I think we have some homework to do. I think you bring up something fascinating. To the extent gulenists continued, it is almost a into a conspiracy that erdogan is the first to promote, being on good terms with United States, u. S. Influence would have impact on domestic politics. That proved not to be the ase. They thought the United States supporting their investigation was going to be more than the vast majority of people. This is where we are. I agree. I think they have miscalculated for the last few years. We have seen not in the Civil Society organization but political actors in a way that i think nicholas said, not what you see what you get but you dont know what you are saying. One miscalculation after another. Would it mean to much to try to draw a Straight Line from intends to use the case against erdogan, to where we end up today in turkish politics . The failed coup in the residential system that is coming in the next election . Everything is connected. For erdogan, he has internalized is own discourse about being the representative of urkey. At his power being central for the progress of the country. A lot of turks dont agree but at this point with the mess going on you have seen in the past three years, two years how nationalist mobilization in turkey has become extremely powerful and if you like erdogan, you see in his rhetoric talking about other turks by name, he has been using the term other turks. If he becomes understood by the vast majority of turks as the representative of this nationalist impulse, which he wasnt even five years ago. Now you cap his identity while purging islamists from his government. And adapted a nationalist costume. In spite of what i said about his we journal position, that is what he is doing in a sense by necessity to maintain power. He is channeling something that is very real. It is not something artificial. May be before we go to questions we could pivot to the issue you raised about turkeys position in between the u. S. And iran, how it sees itself dealing with its front of me frenemy. The turkish iranian relationship in the region has been part of what has been a problem in the u. S. Turkish relationship. Early on they were so opposed to a side assad, they felt betrayed. Now we are having to pay that away from that. Maybe the u. S. Is concerned about trying to push iran out of syria. All of that culminated in the telephone call between trump and erdogan. That has been instrumental in fighting isis. People here in washington said hat is impossible. I little while later the u. S. Said that is what trump said. Where do you guys see turkish iranian relationships, and where you see the regional issues playing out . It was this connotation on friday turning point, anything that may come out of the reza zarrab case. Or are we on this collision course . I do think the anger in turkey, the sense of paranoia, t is real. It is deeply felt by erdogan, these nationalist circles, and i do think if there is some kind of break up in u. S. Turkish relationships, if they do lose turkey it is going to be as result of the suspicion of russia remains eal. Russia has used the policy of othing but sticks. There have been no real appeals to turkish National Interests. Russia has invaded georgia and the ukraine in the last ecade. We are not going to lose turkey to russia but because of the areas perceptions of the United States, in many cases justifiable, in many cases bizarre, there is a possibility if they can conclude the u. S. Is hostile, the genuine believe United States was behind the coup, the u. S. Support for the ypg, this will lead to a rupture in u. S. Turkish relations which will force turkey into a desperate search for other llies. They may have to make do with russia and iran. First choice would remain a situation where it stays in ato, he gets the benefits of cooperation with the west. Even given the paranoia, that emains to be seen. Let me push back on that narrative that you laid out. Erdogan has gone to tell ron and said iran is my second home. Tehran and said iran is my second home. Something more akin to a brotherly affection for the Iranian Regime than purely a pragmatic calculation of i need to find someone other than the nited states to work with. We cooperated a few years ago on Foreign Policy in which we see this oscillation of this and slamist idea that he was building on, that we can work jointly with iran to a gorsuch terry and that seems to be going back to a more different approach again. So, yeah, there is this me and my brother against my neighbor logic which who threatens mind regime russia helps. This is the pitch russia was making to authoritarian leaders 1015 years ago when we had the revolutions. Not that the russians were really going to help but that was there pitch. The u. S. Is out to get you overthrow you. That is the pitch they are making now. On the other hand, the ypg thing, i tend to disagree. I think this is a scituate serious issue. When the turks say this is an organization controlled by a terrorist group inside turkey they are right. This creates a problem. We say we are only cooperating in syria. It doesnt work like that. The issue is trans regional. You are de facto strengthening them and that becomes a problem. E have never fully resolved if we are going to choose the kurds or choose turkey. We try to have both. That goes to the final point. Maybe will make another choice in a few weeks. Hat is the real problem. We dont have a strategy. The turks got very surprised with the United States seem to say enough already. What has been the followup . This was an action that may have made sense if it was part of a larger policy. We have a lot of Different Things happening but there is no red thread. I do not see any larger strategy and policy. If we dont have a policy of dont see how this can be ormalized. Any thoughts on the future of he relationship . I think it is above my pay grade. I think it is well laid out by he experts here. We really cannot forget what is oing on. President trump calls president erdogan and says it will stop but we hear from Coalition Forces saying it is going to ontinue. So, we will try to keep up with them. On that optimistic note, let me open it up to the udience. We have someone with a icrophone. In the back. It seems to me to look at this as a corruption issue, it is part of the deterioration it has been going on. I am not so sure why you are so onfident about that. The way the relationship is going from what i am reading, i am seeing more articles skeptical of nato eadership. Let us say that turkey blocked ur access. We are sending them all on. We would do what in esponse . On russia, that is the next point. What i would mean by that is, if you want somebody to experience what it is like to be friends with russia, good luck. We see everybody around the region, they fall out with the United States. There are some things they can strike some deal with the russians. The russians treat them so badly hey get that up quickly. They get very much set up very quickly. Thats what i think. That doesnt mean you are wrong area we would have lost a lot by the time that happened. In that sense, i think youre probably right that there is a scenario in which this goes very bad and the turks make make decisions hard to undo later on. I share that concern. That would be very much my take. Russia has been offering turkey nothing but sticks. You look at the discussions over aleppo. Turkey basically caved in, in return for allowing the regime to take back a crucial city in syria. They got tacit russian permission for a small operation. Subsequently, russia still has forces. Turkey has been eager to invade. Deal, which i400s think is really telling, the russians have given nothing that turkey wanted in terms of technology transfers. At one point, would not give turkey a good deal on the price for the sake of securing this arrangement. For all of these issues with russia, it is striking when you read turkish papers. Theyve been eager almost too eager to remind america, you have to be worried youre going to lose us to russia. It almost undermines the effectiveness of this ploy. That said, getting back to what we were talking about earlier, things for this deal real. Ically, this is this is protecting erodgan. So if the nato planes come for him, he can shoot them down. It doesnt mean they still dont want nato weapons to be able to protect themselves against russia. They want the best of both worlds. Into the extent they are able to achieve this is very much debatable. I think you both have suggested the risk is they will end up with the worst of both worlds, being alienated from the west and at the mercy of russia. You have to see what is important to them. In syria, very small things, what they, especially the antiwestern nationalists around erodgan are panicking about is this kurdish corridor to the sea in syria. If the russians are allowing and the u. S. Is not, as the russians are allowing turkish troops on the ground that can block a fourdoor corridor to this project that probably could never happen anyway, then they have gotten something out of a very Strong National interest out of the russians. It is also important to note the russians have not been shy about playing footsie with the kurds at times. Let me ask you to build off of that question. He said the russians are happy to go around the region and offer basically protection for the regimes, especially at a time when turkey sees the u. S. As conspiring against the erodgan regime. Given we are in that situation, how do you fix the relationship . I mean, on the one hand should the United States be happy and willing to work with the regime that is mostly concerned about its own survival and wants to be assured it can sort of continue to remain in power . And if so, how do convince it how do you convince it that the u. S. Is not out to get it if thats what it takes . You alluded to the russians playing with the kurds. Spent aerodgan month or more in moscow before he was apprehended in kenya. And still it is the United States the turks suspect as a Conspiracy Theory, not the russians. That is related to several things, one being the i8 ideological upbringing of erodgan. Basically antiamerican, not antirussian. They live in an antiamerican conspiracy world. Also that the russians, mr. Putin is a very skilled poker player. Russia is not that stable a house of cards, if you will. But the point is, he is able to with an economy about the size of the netherlands he is able to play these cards and see every part of the geopolitics of this region as a whole. He is able to play it as a whole. Therefore, achieve success and press the turks everywhere he needs to. Whereas we have we dont even have policies. We have a bunch of different decisions or processes that are almost out of our control. If youre from that part of the world where turkey is, you cannot comprehend the idea that all these things happen, washington, and they are disconnected from each other. They have to somehow be connected. You have to be the greater mastermind. The mastermind cannot be that incompetent. That is impossible, right . You are trained and programmed to believe there is a mastermind. So you have to find the logic. And that is why, and im sure the russians are very skillfully feeding in some lies in the middle of all of these intelligence sharing they are feeding to the turks. I go back to what i said, we need to take a holistic approach in how to deal with this and focus not only on the immediate future because erodgan may be there for a year, two years, five years, 10 years or be gone at some point. We need to think about how we build a longterm relationship with turkey as a country, as difficult as the countrys going to be. Even after erodgan, it is not going to be easy to deal with. That is why i come back to the ypg. We may decide the benefits outweigh the cost, but we have to be aware that just like the decisions we took after the first gulf war in the early 1990s had implications for the way the whole of turkey views the United States, if we choose to go down this road with the kurds, it will have similarly longterm implications with every constituency in Turkish Society. Just a brief followup, one of the most amazing conspiracy theories i ever came across was when the United States was the when the cia helped the turkey captured the pkk leader. This was part of a plot to strengthen the pkk, therefore advance the longterm goal from the United States of creating a greater kurdistan. Even the capture, at the point where we are now generally supporting the pkk, it is hard to understand how we overcome the amount of suspicion that has created. I would say how we solve this is above our pay grade, but im afraid that is what you are paying me for, so. Mostly they have been marginal until 2013. Pkk didhe things the very well was they were very realistic. Pkkthey had good situations wih the eu. They became a full cabinet member in relation with the u. S. Although there were lots of ups and downs during 2008, 2007, 2009, 2010. We have seen the crisis in the relations, but mr. Erodgan and his party, they never went for , and still getry to protest. For about four years now, everything has been explained by conspiracy theories. Thank you. Any additional questions . Let me ask one final one based on that. What changed on may 31, 2013 . Why did it change so suddenly . For the first time, mr. Erodgan, he might lose his power. I think that was the real danger. I remember the first day of the protest. I tweeted and said i did not see the danger. People are just afraid protests were ongoing supporting , syrian uprising. I was also part of pkk administration protein proceeds until 2013. When the same protest happened in istanbul, suddenly the next day, i start hearing, then had good relations with the akp. I start hearing the second day this wasrotests in the making for some years. I think mr. Erodgan saw for the first time the middleclass people are not happy with him. I think he saw his personality, he had been in power for 12 years, 10, 11 years. He became already, i think, very much entrenched with power. I think the protests happening in 2003, 2004, 2005, mr. Erodgan could have handled better, very differently. In 2013, mr. Erodgan was very ,owerful with the coalition most of the majority backed to mr. Erodgan. At the end of the day, he really got away with the protest blaming half of the country in the bed with the western powers. And since then, same rhetoric. Its very unfortunate for a country that was so close to realistic, and realplayer in the region a real player in the region, now become like any middle eastern authoritarian regime. We explain every single problem as a plot, including including the mr. Zarrab case. We dont know what mr. Zarrab is going to talk about. Once he is talking, i think, according to experts, he will implicate lots of other people and we wont see those indictments very soon. So if he is talking, this may trigger events that may go on for a while. And nobody knows from turkeys side, who is in the indictment list. It sounds like this could be a real pandoras box for u. S. Turkish relationships laying out a minefield for us to , navigate in the near future. You agree with the assessment . Yes. On that optimistic note, we will end for today. Thank you for joining us. I encourage you to check out our reza zarrab. You can check out the info atphic info graphic bipartisanpolicy. Org. Thank you. [applause] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2017] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the fbi about his contact with the Russian Ambassador during President Trumps transition to office. Headingvideo of him into a Federal District court in washington dc this morning. General flynn says he recognized his actions were wrong and is working to set things right. Will trump pardon you . Cspan, where history unfolds daily. 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