Transcripts For CSPAN President Trumps Iran Strategy 20171017

Announcer next, a look at the Iran Nuclear Deal. Robert malley, a former Obama Administration official who negotiation good sheet the deal took part in this event hosted by the National Iranian american council. This is one hour and 10 minutes. Hello, everybody. Hey. Such a fantastic crowd. You are also young, it is freaking me out. Seriously. You are so young. It is terrifying. Hi. I go by holly. I cover Foreign Policy for politico here and im pleased to welcome everyone here for what i hope will be a fruitful discussion. Let me introduce our panelist. I doubt i can possibly do justice to their accomplishments. Is the Vice President for policy at the International Crisis group. He previously served in the Obama Administration as a special assistant to the president , Senior Adviser to the president and the white house grenade or for the middle east, north africa, and the gulf region. When i covered portrait Foreign Policy, i managed to obtain his right at a address early on. For the longest time, i was too shy to reach out. When i finally did reach out, turns out he is a really nice guy. I dont know why i didnt do it before. Sorry. John to the other end, glaser is director of foreignpolicy studies at the cato institute. In the press, we often say the libertarian think tank. Interests include grand strategy, facing posture, u. S. Foreign policy, they rise of china, and the role and status role of status and prestige motivation in international politics. That sounds like everything. I never talked to john before. I was doing a bit of research on him. Johnnd out there is also a glaser who is an actor and comedian who used to write for conan obrien. You are not that guy, right . I have no h in my name. Is thetreat a parsi founder of the National Iranian council. Also the president of it. Severalis the author of books, including most recently losing an enemy, obama, iran, and the triumph of diplomacy. Before we start the discussion, the National Council has asked me to think david price and his office for help us secure this venue today. Thelso want to thank earners and the Rockefeller Brothers fund. I am going to sit down. Can you guys hear me . Lets set the table a little bit. Last week President Trump announced that hes going to be decertify the Iran Nuclear Deal but for now the u. S. Remains in the deal unless or until congress reimposes sanctions on iran. The president also has requested the Congress Look at passing legislation that basically states that if iran takes certain action, including nonnuclear action, that that would automatically trigger a reimposition of sanctions at the same time, the president wants congress to pass legislation that states that the United States considers some parts of the Iran Nuclear Deal that are supposed to be time limited to actually be permanent. The goal is to get the International Community and iran back to the table to negotiate additional agreements that address what the Trump Administration says are flaws in the nuclear deal. At the same time, the administration is looking at other ways to counter what it calls irans malign activities in the middle east, which it can be argue ready many from human rights abuses to backing terrorist organizations. So im going to ask these guys, like, a couple of rounds of questions and depending on the time, you know, that will factor how many questions i have for them and then well open it up for audience questions. Feel free to get into the minutia. I know a lot of you are congressional staffers and you want some specifics. So feel free to do that. Ok. So john, lets start with you. Lets talk about the merits of the administrations argument here. Doesnt the administration have a point when it says that the way that the iran deal is structured it will make iran stronger economically and that once certain limits are lifted on iran that it will be able to return to some sort of Nuclear Program while being stronger . So why or why not ask congress to step in and address this and then pressure the International Community to devise a new approach to iran . Why not . John its certainly true that the sanctions that were lifted under the deal will allow iran to build its economy and improve things for itself. But this motion that i think theres a bias among i think both sides in american politics that theres this picture of iran of being implacably in pursuit of a Nuclear Weapon. And i dont think thats actually the case. I think theyve actually kind of made a decision here which is that they go the route of greater engagement with the world, they can develop more trade with europe, both east and west actually, they can improve things domestically for themselves, and, you know, get sanctions lifted and this kind of stuff by not pursuing a Nuclear Weapon. Or, they could go another route which is doggedly pursue a Nuclear Weapon and be isolated from the world, sanctioned by the entire world the way north korea is, and sure they would have their security guaranteed by a Nuclear Deterrent but i think theyve kind of made a decision that the former route serves their interests more than the latter. That doesnt mean we should give up. We should still have a robust sanctions i mean inspections regime and so on. We shouldnt trust that that will always be their determination. But i actually disagree with the notion that we need to constantly have the assumption and the presumption that iran is just doggedly in pursuit of a Nuclear Weapon and its only a matter of time and a matter of how you delay it or how you prevent it. I think we have to kind of recognize their choice. Holly to that i kind of want to ask you the same question. And i guess ill, you know, add this to it. Why should we trust the iranian government . I mean, this is the government that imprisoned americans, you know, executes ridiculous numbers of people, is backing militias and terrorist groups across middle east. I mean, i could go on. Why should we trust anything that they say . John so if this deal was built on trust, it would never have been a deal to begin with because the United States because it doesnt have trust for the iranian government for some of the reasons you just mentioned. [inaudible] they dont have much trust for the u. S. Government, and rest assured that mistrust has been significantly deepened over the course of the last week. This was never built on trust. This was if anything, were trusting the inspections regime that the United States itself helped design to ensure that the iranians are not cheating. And we have to remind ourselves particularly because we are within the narrative in which we say we can never trust the iranians. Well, part of the test here was for the iranians to prove that they can be trusted. And thats why they lived up to the end of the bargain. Eight times in a row now, issued reports saying that the iranians are actually honoring the agreement. The entire premise was that over the course of the next 15 years the iranians would prove that they actually can be a responsible player within the International Agreement by living up to the ends of end of the bargain. And as a result then they would come out of the position that they were in before in which they had been in violation of the n. P. T. And they needed to be a path for them to be in Good Standing again. And that period ended up becoming 15 years, staggered at some point. But the test was, can they actually live up to their end of the bargain while we are verifying and inspecting their capacity to do so and be able to catch them if theyre not . And i have to remind everyone, particularly mindful of the fact that we have this narrative in which we always think they are untrustworthy. Im not saying that narrative is wrong. But look who it is right now violating the deal and talking about killing the deal and talking about walking out of this deal. We have to face the fact that unfortunately if theres going to be a violation right now its far more likely that that violation would be first committed by the United States rather than by the iranians. Holly so those are interesting high points. But if i was a member of congress and i was skeptical of this deal, one of the arguments i would probably make is something that nikki haley has said and im directing this you, rob. That apparently there are like hundreds of sites that the i. E. A. Has not been able to get access to in iran and that, you know, theres all sorts of things that we dont know about that the iranians are doing and the i. E. A. Cant get access to them. So what would you tell that member of congress . Thats a key piece. Its one thing to tell them, ok, you can access these 10 sites but not these five military sites. Why should we trust them . Rob so, thanks. Thankful for you coming out. I want to comment on a few of the other questions you asked but i will come to the point you just made because it is at the core of what this debate is about. One of the questions you asked is, well, why should we do this deal the iranians will benefit with, the economy will get greater . Of course. The whole point of the sanctions was to pressure iran to get to the point where they would agree to stop or at least put real constraints on the Nuclear Program. That was why we imposed sanctions so, of course, once they agree to those concessions, the only reason they would do it is because theyre going to lift some of the sanctions. So if were not prepared to give them any economic benefit, we should what was the whole argument about imposing the sanctions first place . I think thats number one. Yes, theyre going to get some benefit but thats because this was an agreement negotiated, compromised on all sides. What the iranians got out of it was some economic benefits, of which i think so far have been vast exaggerated. They got some benefit but nowhere near claimed. Thats point one. Point two, you mentioned the audience is very young and that is quite noticeable. Holly horrifying. Rob so maybe too young to remember the days in 2013, 2014 when the entire western world and israel were focused on the issue of irans Nuclear Program as the existence shall issue, war and peace. Maybe there was hype but that was the issue. And thats the issue that the Obama Administration was determined to shut down so that we were not faced with that binary option of iran acquiring a nuclear bomb or us bombing iran to prevent them from getting it. That was the focus. Yes, there was a price to be paid, lifting some of the sanctions imposed to get iran to make the concession. Now, you ask about are there flaws in the deal about inspection of sites. This is one of those canards. Its so hard because there are so many to fight back. When i was there, this is one of the issues the most robustly negotiated. There are no military sites that are offsite that the i. I. E. A. Cannot inspect. If theres some evidence that the United States or somebody else provides to the i. E. A. And says we suspect and its not simply on some kind of whim but we have some information that theres some activity thats taken place in a given military site, the i. E. A. Has a means of requiring that iran open it up to them. And theres a whole process for that to happen, much tighter, by the way, than what exists with virtually any other country. So this notion that there are hundreds of sites that the i. E. A. Cant inspect, it is true that what the iranians were insistent upon was you cant go on a wild goose chase and say we think theres a Nuclear Device in the supreme leaders bathroom so were going to inspect it. That was something they said they were worried about. They didnt want the i. E. A. To go on a fishing expect decision. But you provide some evidence, which nikki haley was unable to do and by her admission and i. E. A. s admission, was unable to do. If then the iranians refuse access and compromises, then that could be a mature breach and then were in a different world. Were not there yet. Theres not been a single instance of request of a military site by the i. E. A. That has been that iran has refused. So this is one of those myths that are hard to combat because there are so many of them but one of them that were hearing every day. Holly being thank you for that. John john i wanted to make a quick point. Kind of assume theres a strategic calculus behind trump decision and there isnt of the part of the reason we know that is because virtually the entirety of his National Security team urged him to certify. There was no strategy behind decertification. All the strategizing that went on was by his National Security team to try to figure out a way to placate trumps irrational distaste for the deal but not back out entirely. So its notable, for example, that trump did not impose sanctions himself which he has the right to do. Its notable that he didnt announce a formal withdrawal from the deal which, again, as the executive he has the right to do. And thats because virtually the entire world, the i. A. E. A. , the europeans, the russians, the chinese, the u. S. Intelligence community, the chairman of joint chiefs of staff, the head of u. S. Strategic command, james mattis, Rex Tillerson, h. R. Mcmaster, again, this was everybody agreed that not only is the deal working and iran is complying but that its in the u. S. Interest to stay in it. Hes put us in a position where we have less leverage than we had when we initially negotiated the deal which means we cant get more punitive arrangements or more concessions out of iran. And theyve signaled, theyve made clear to congress that they are not asking him to reimpose nuclearrelated sanctions which would be the thing that actually constitutes a formal violation or withdrawal from us, not the decertification itself. So thats making explicit that decertification is noninstrumental. Its not supposed to achieve anything other than to broadcast trumps distaste for the deal. And his babysitters in the white house have tried to make it as easy a landing as possible. Holly that actual actually leads into my next question. But i do want to make something very clear. I think a lot of people dont realize this. The public and frankly around the hill, the United States still has numerous sanctions on iran. The only sanctions that were lifted were nuclearrelated sanctions so we still have sanctions related to their Ballistic Missiles, their human rights violations, and their support for terrorism which means that its actually very, very difficult if not impossible for most businesses in this country to do business with iran. I think thats an important clarification because i think a lot of people think the u. S. Lifted all of its sanctions on iran and it has not. I do want to point that out for people to know. So my next question, john, sticking with you, the president has thrown this into the lap of congress. How is this going to play out . What would you predict will happen . John well, its interesting because when he made the announcement and there were rumors floating around about a proposal from tom cotton and bob corker that essentially remove the goal post on the deal itself and try to basically unilaterally alter the multilateral agreement which is not going to happen and which would constitute a violation of the deal itself. But before that the main question was, will congress reimpose nuclearrelated sanction as they had the opportunity to do within a 60day window of the deal if its decertified or will they ignore trump . And it looked like there was increasing momentum in favor of not reimposing nuclearrelated sanctions. Senator jeff flake came out and said it would be unwise to unburden iran from the deals restrictions now that theyve benefited from economic sanctions. Senator rand paul said something similar. Representative royce, Foreign Affairs committee, said something similar, that we should enforce the deal. So there seems to be, even among the politicking that occurred during the deals signing and afterwards, a recognition that now were in this deal, it is working so long as iran is complying we should not unilaterally back out and isolate ourselves from the world. So it might very well be the case that congress, you know, doesnt reimpose nuclearrelated sanctions but its going it be a close fight. Its going to be difficult. Holly rob . Rob just a little nuance on that answer. I never thought the president , administration, or congress would reimpose Nuclear Sanctions because that would be such a blatant violation of the deal, isolate the u. S. , i thought, the administration, and those in congress who want to be tougher on this issue, would not go down that road. I thought and i think thats whats playing out is a different which i doo think is dangerous. I wouldnt minimize the risk, which is exactly what the president announced, which is he wants congress to pass legislation that would tie the reimposition of some sanctions, nuclearrelated sanctions to action that iran would take that are consistent with the deal. So for example, as you mentioned, under the deal some restrictions get lifted after year 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. The legislation that the administration is pushing, and that some in congress are supporting work say if iran would say if iran engages in activity after those constraints had been lifted, which are consistent with the deal, because the constraints would have been lifted, we would consider that unacceptable and impose sanctions. Thats a violation of the deal. I think the real test for congress is to make that distinction clear. Yes, we could legislation that says if iran violates the deal were going to impose sanctions, of course that should be the case because thats what the deal itself says. But for congress to say were going to impose sanctions that had been lifted, if iran, either engages in activities outside the deal like Ballistic Missiles or support for terrorism or if it takes actions in the Nuclear Field but are permit the by the jcfoa, that would be a violation of the deal and give every excuse for iran to say youre violating the deal, we could do the same. And all the benefits of the deal as we just heard every expert, including the u. S. Government itself, says is working in blocking irans pathway that would be gone because were playing with the deal. This argument its not a violation of the deal because nothing happens today, i mean what would he would say if tomorrow iran announced were going to abide by the Nuclear Restrictions but if in two years the u. S. Has not withdrawn from iraq, all bets off, were going to resume our program. I think we would say thats a violation of the deal. I think we would say thats unacceptable because our deal had nothing to do with our presence in iraq. So for us to now say if they engage in activity permit, sanctions are coming back, that would be a violation of the deal, would isolate us from europe, would strengthen the hardliners in iran, and that would put news violation of the deal. Holly trita . Trita very clearly, what trump is working with the senate on right now is a measure that would be a violation of the deal. Very specifically looking for things that absolutely ensures that the iranian will say no to it. The idea that you could have permanent punishment of iran and then expecting iran to sign it while youre giving them no sanctions is prepositive truss. So the path that hes suggesting there is one that will ensure the deal will be violated, will fall apart. Then he also said, very clearly, if congress does not do this, then i will terminate the deal myself. So here you have it. Both paths that trump is proposing will lead to the deal being killed. So to then say he hasnt killed it because he didnt do it on friday, is essentially saying is to doway to kill it it in one move. Buts doing it in two moves, still doing it. Is listen tosaid what Rex Tillerson said over the weekend in one of the interviews. He said the real end game is regime change. Ok. So now were starting to holly dont think that was his exact words. Didnt he say, like, the goal in the long run to get the iranian Government People to get their government back. Right . Thats different. I want to be clear about that. Trita if youre throwing these things out there, expect a negotiation with the same party youre saying, well, were looking to see that regime gone. This is starting to look like iraq again in which we have a pretense of diplomacy while were pursuing regime change a policy that quite likely will end up getting the United States into a military confrontation with iran. You combine that with the fact that as john said, his own opposition to the deal is irrational because everyone else inside his own administration disagrees with the decertification and walking out of the deal. And with the fact that hes presenting congress not with an option to actually have any choices what to do but to ensure that Congress Becomes complicit in the decision of killing the deal. Not even 10 seconds. Basically what the president is telling congress is lets violate the deal together, ill violate it alone. I dont think thats a deal that congress should take. Holly i think you can probably tell this panel is a little stacked on one side. Right . So let me [laughter] holly let me play devils advocate, my favorite role. Trump isnt the only one that doesnt like this deal. All right . Our friends, the saudis dont like this deal. Our friends, the emirates dont like this deal will and im looking at you, rob, because you used to deal with these guys all the time. Our friends the israelis do not like this deal and they are thrilled with what the president is doing. Shouldnt we care about what our friends think . Rob sure, though its a little overstatement. When you say our friends the israelis holly can, theyre theyre not our friends . Rob no. We have Security Intelligence officials who say this deal you have the former Prime Minister who used to be the defense minister who said it would be a big mistake for United States to decertify. Yes, he doesnt like it now i dont think he speaks for israel is that what youre saying. At this point has said the alternative to this deal is [inaudible]. Again, it was Prime Minister netanyahu who had the famous cartoon where he showed that iran was increasing its enrichment capacity and said this is a threat we have to stop. Guess what. President obama stopped it. Youre right this is a stacked panel but theres a reason many others have supported this deal who are not suspected of any sympathy. I can say in terms of our other allies, correct, the saudis have an agenda against iran which we understand and we have supported them militarily so they could counter irans activities. It doesnt mean we have to subcontract National Security decisions that involve the u. S. , matters of war and peace, to their preference. The ones fighting are not saudi arabia. Its the United States. Now, are there things not perfect with the deal . Absolutely. Its a compromise. Its not an act of surrender by iran. It was a compromise. Number two, if there are things we want to still talk about, as there are, terrorism, Ballistic Missiles, the sunset clause, the way to address those is not to tell the iranians today by the way the deal is no good if you dont accept these things because then iran may walk away and all of those problems will exist, plus well have an iranian Nuclear Program that will start accelerating today not 15 years but today. The way to do it is lets implement this deal in good faith for a number of years. Then you want to talk to the iranians when theres mutual trust. You say, you know what . There are things we still want to address. Your Ballistic Missile program, your support for certain organizations around the world. Some of the limitation that expire. You mentioned the embargo. They still want that lifted. So have that negotiation but you cant have it when the ink on the deal that has just been signed is not even dry and when youre sending the message to the iranians our word is not worth the paper its written on because the next day or the next administration were going to walk away from it. Built on the deal that exists, make sure iran doesnt move forward on its Nuclear Program beyond what the jcpoa contemplates, and, then, yes, there are issues we will to deal with. We know it. We have a pretty hostile relationship with them. Holly ok. Im sure youll get your point in, trita. Heres the thing, though. I just have a difficult time envisioning this deal surviving. My question is this. Like, should i go ahead im going to address this to john but you can all jump in. Should i go ahead and write the eulogy for this deal . Heres the thing. Lets say it holds up, you know, for the next 10 years or whatever, and then, you know, you guys are thinking, all right, maybe now we need to come up with some additional agreements, think in the long term. But the iranians have seen that the United States is willing to elect someone who is willing to completely overthrow the previous administrations decision. So if youre iran, wouldnt you right now be making the calculus that, look, i dont care if this deal falls apart today or 10 years from now, we are Going Nuclear because we cant rely on the stability or consistency of the american system. John . John they would be justified in coming to that conclusion. However, we shouldnt underestimate the extent to which trump has done iran a huge favor. He has driven a wedge between us and our european allies, on road to isolating us from the world. And iran is still at this moment at least able to continue to trade with these countries and engage in robust diplomacy with them and improve relations so iran in a certain sense, im sure theyre nervous about the extent to which they can trust well abide by the deal but they also in a very in an interesting strategic position that weve kind of given to them on a silver platter. Before we talked you said youre going to enforce long answers , so just said im going to cut you off. John throw something sharp at me if i go on too long. Im going to Say Something controversial and doesnt win me friends even among my fellow jcopa supporters. Theres this bipartisan consensus that irans other regional activities are a major threat to the United States. And this is actually one argument in favor of the jcpoa. Like we have a Nuclear Issue over here in a box. Now we can more ably confront iran on other activities whether its support for terrorism or Ballistic Missiles or what have you. The reality is, none of irans regional behaviors pose a serious threat to the United States. Let me say that again for emphasis. None of irans regional behaviors pose a serious threat to the United States. Holly hold on. John no. Holly hold on. We have troops in iraq, troops in syria. Im sorry. I dont buy that. John i will explain and then you will buy it. [laughter] john only under the most expansive definition of u. S. National interests can you even pausibly frame these issues as a threat. To put it slightly differently to address your objection, irans regional behaviors are only a threat to the United States to the extent that we continue to insist on sticking our nose in a region whose strategic importance has been massively overstated for generations. There are essentially three strategic justifications for our excessive over involvement in this region. And oil. Errorism, holly those are really important things. John no, theyre not. Listen. Israel, first of all, is powerful and Strong Enough to defend itself and doesnt needed United States. And, from our perspective, they are more of a liability than an asset, to be blunt about it. Secondly, terrorism. It turns out other than terrorism being the most egregiously inflated threat in the history of u. S. Foreign policy, it turned out the application of military force is not all that effective a tool in addressing the problem. We have done more to exacerbate the terrorism problem through our approach in the region post 9 11 than to mitigate it and it hasnt diminished the already extremely low probability threat of an american being killed by a terrorist here in this country. Third, oil. Many of our four deployed bases in the persian gulf are purposed to deter iran from attempting to close the strait. That is an unlike unlikely scenario. First of all, the export most of their oil through the strait so they would be damaging themselves economically by doing this and all of irans regional rivals, many of whom have far superior conventional military capabilities than iran does, also think its a vital interest that the strait stay open. On top of this, we have Rapid Deployment capabilities that can respond to such unlikely contingencies from offshore. So we can easily take a step back from this region and not damage our interests seriously. So when you hear about how irans support for hezbollah and hamas threatens the United States, how . These groups have local concerns and we could easily make that none of our business tomorrow if we wanted to. Holly ok. Thats definitely the libertarian in you speaking. I got to jump . Here. Holly fine two minutes. Trita i am on the panel. You mentioned listen to our friends. Youre right. That means we should listen to the brits. We should listen to the germans. We should listen to the french. We should listen to the south koreans, indians, oven of our allies who support this deal. You managed to exhaust the list of opponents and theres three of them. Holly but they support the deal because of business interests. Its about making money. Trita oh, my god. If you think that the europeans are going to sacrifice the American Market for the tiny Iranian Market in comparison and that this is not about security, that they were never actually genuine about trying to prevent proliferation, i think thats an insult to our friends. Youre not listening to them. Youre insulting them by saying this. More over, those three nations that you mentioned that are opposed to it and rob is quite right. In the case of israel, it is the Prime Minister and part of the political elite. It is not the security establishment. There also happen to be three theiries in which governments or parts of their government have been on record, inadvertently at times, supporting military action against iran. I think it is a bit of a correlation. If you are killing this deal, a deal that prevented both iran from getting a Nuclear Weapon and prevented war between the United States and iran, took those two options off the table, if you kill the deal, you put those two options back on the table. Holly heres something that maybe both of you and rob can touch on. You made the point that, oh, my gosh, why would the europeans ever pick the Iranian Market over the American Market . But if i was trump, you know, or one of the people who supports what hes doing right now, i would say the same. I would be like, look, you know, we can decertify, we can impose the sanctions back on, and the europeans in the end will come along with us because they care about our market more than they care about that. Trita if it was just economics, perhaps that would. Holly what do you think . Rob it might work. I dont know. Thats why i am worried about this deal. You asked should you write the eulogy . I hope not. I Hope Congress will stand up to the selfinflicted wound by the administration. I hope others will stand up. Is it possible that if the threat if the administration really goes through with this and tells the europeans you choose our market or the iranians, who knows what happens but thats not a good scenario and shouldnt be for the administration because that means at that point, and i think the iranians made that as clear as can be if they have to live under the constraints of the nuclear deal where theyre not getting the economic benefits which are the only benefits of getting out of this deal for now, why would they stick to it . We would be in a position where iran will say thank you very much, inspectors are going home, constraints are forgotten, and well resume the Nuclear Program that a few years ago we were saying and Prime Minister net netanyahu was saying was a threat so, sure it might work but thats the worst outcome which would be the end of deal. So this is where, you know if the administrations calculation is we are going to try to pressure iran to change the terms of the deal and we could do it through the europeans, others, i guarantee you it wont work. It will not work. The deal will not be changed this way. The only way you could have a supplemental deal is by implementing this one in good faith so im not contradicting you. I think that many businesses are going to say, you know, we have this American Market, we cannot sacrifice it no matter what our leaders may say about how we need to stand firm. But that for me is a nightmare scenario where you will see iran say goodbye to this deal. And i dont see where we have a better alternative on offer right now. Holly one more question before we open it up to the floor for a while. I guess i want you all to jump in quickly. Put yourself in the mind of someone who opposes this deal ok . Say you are advising a member of congress about what to do. What strategy would you give them to follow . You oppose the deal. Pretend youre leibowitz. Trita you want us to give advice . Holly i do. Trita i was actually quite surprised that during this debate in 2015 and still today i think one of the arguments that could be used against the deal i dont happen to agree with it but unlike many of the other arguments actually have a basis whereas many of the other arguments, oh, we dont have access to these sites and things like that frankly are factually incorrect. At the end of the day, this deal ended if it ended decades long policies pursuing an allout isolation and containment of iran, its a deal that the United States recognized for better for worse iran is a major player in the region and that were going to have a more effective strategy if we actually recognize that and try to talk to them and make deals with them rather than thinking that an allout out containment strategy could work. From the perspective of the United States, even if you dont take the position john took right now of saying, look, the region carries no Strategic Value, i would have a variation of that of say willing that i think the Strategic Value of the region has plummeted for a variety of reasons, not to say that it was never important, combined with the fact that the cost of getting involved in this region has skyrocketed. Because its one thing to be the hegemon of the region when it is a relatively functioning region of functioning states. Its a completely different proposition to be the hedgemon hegemon of a region with three failed states and potentially two additional ones in the next couple of years. Youre responsible for security in that region why would anyone want to be that . Compliant that with the superpower, United States global priority has to be to make sure that there are no global peer competitors emerging that can challenge the United States not a country like iran that might challenge the u. S. Regionally but that someone actually can challenge the u. S. On a global scale. The more the United States gets bogged down in what is essentially strategically marginality conflict, the less of a capacity it will have to be able to address these challenges that will be coming in the next decade or two. But from the perspective of some in the region, whether youre saudi arabia or one of the of other countries that doesnt figure in because you are faced with an iranian rival you cannot balance iran on your own so you want the United States to do the job for you. If youre saudi arabia, perhaps that makes sense but im not seeing the answer being the question being answered in washington. Whats in it for the United States . To especially become a proxy of saudi arabia in its own rivalries . Holly there is this inconsistency in what he sometimes says about national interest. You are actually using that argument on the iran deal. A it is one thing to have black and white, zerosum approach saying if it is bad for the rest of the world and his good for the u. S. Or if it is good for the u. S. It is bad for the rest of the world. That is wrong. That is not how the world works. There are winwin solutions, this is a prime example of that. That is why we have allies, we have capacity to bring about positive, not just for ourselves, but others, as well. Essentially saying im for america, im against the world and that doesnt work. Holly you didnt really answer my question. I will jump over, there are people who advise congressmen and some congressmen want to know how can they get out of the deal, you know and what strategy they can justify it. I want to piggyback off something trita said, i can try to shoehorn it into your question, which is impossible because the deal is working and effective. But he touched upon something crucial, which is, in a way, the real value of this deal is not what it literally accomplishes, what it literally accomplishes is rollback of irans Nuclear Program and prevention of foreseeable future and maybe forever of weaponization. The actual value to the United States, it erects psychological barrier to the United States going to war with iran for utterly imaginary reasons. And conflicts of interest. Trita is right to point out, part of our position in the region, has been to subordinate our own interests for the sake of other peoples interests. It is true, israel in private meetings with u. S. Officials, urged a more hawkish and perhaps militaristic approach to iran, it is true. It is true saudi arabia cut the head off the snake, or what have you, if they want to take that approach, they can, we should think about our own interest. It is a pity that trump has muddied the waters with sort of different ideas about Foreign Policy, first of all, to have idea about Foreign Policy, you have to know something about the world and he doesnt. But, in terms of what conservatives, who dont like the deal, should be argues, i think they should take the approach that the extreme rightwing hawks that support the deal have taken rice, mattis, mcmaster, who fought in iraq on the ground, this isnt code pink in the Trump Administration, they are arguing that we stay in this deal, because it effectively rolls back irans Nuclear Program and fight on other issues that i have unfortunately isolated myself on, that arent actually a threat. Holly rob, im sure Congress People would like to get your thoughts on it, because you are rob. Robert malley ill be candid, i spoke to critics of the deal, i thought the strategy employing now were the right one, in other words, say were not against the deal, not getting out of the deal, trying to improve on the margin, who could like the sunset clause or we dont like iranian terrorism. They suffer from one major flaw, which come from the president and people outside, the cat is out of the bag, they made it clear as can be that they want out of the deal. President trump has said it, others have said it, as trita said, they have hints run into it. Into of regime change run it. Hard not to play the game, we dont want out of the deal, were trying to improve it, when it is clear, including what the president said when he said, if i dont get my way, were leaving the deal, it makes it very hard for a member of congress, who would like to get out of the deal, but doesnt want to be viewed want the u. S. To be viewed as responsible to play that game anymore. It is in plain view, the president has made it clear to everyone, this is the objective, find a way to get out of the deal or take away all the benefits iran get so they walk away. Knowing that, you cant unknow that anymore. So, i dont know that it could make a clever argument anymore. I think it was the right approach, but it was polluted from the beginning by the admission, honest admission that the goal was we want the deal to be negotiated and we got to find a way out of it. Holly okay, anyone with questions . Gentleman right there. Go ahead. Do we have a mic . Please. And please tell us your name and who youre with. Question Sonny Christopher with the senators office. I want to know, in looking at the big picture, if the deal is killed what effect would that have on the negotiating in terms of the next administration . Would that make iran more or less likely to cooperate with the next administration if the Trump Administration does kill it . Holly how about john, can you take that . John it would make them less likely to negotiate because it is less, they see the United States as less trustworthy. It is also something i have to rereference something i said in the beginning, if were trying to renegotiate aspects of the deal and when the rest of the world thinks it is working and we should stay in it, we have less leverage than we had, the Obama Administration did a lot of work and rob knows a lot about this, to bring the world along in the sanction regime to ratchet up the pressure against iran and they ended up making significant concessions. If were alone, and we dont have leverage over our allies or over iran that we used to, no way to get more out of iran with less leverage, it doesnt work like that. So yes, very challenging obstacle for the next administration, how to fix what trump is in the midst of destroying. Question if i could add something. There is an ayatollah in tehran with a huge smile on his face. His narrative that the United States cannot be trusted, has in the eyes of large sector of the iranian politics been vindicated. Go ahead, negotiate, we dont trust it, the United States eventually will kill this deal, they will not be true to their word. In the view of many people in iran right now, even those that oppose the paranoia of the United States, that has been vindicated and that has come at the expense of the moderate elements in iran to made the argument, lets strike a deal and work this out, perhaps it will be additional changes in the policies of both sides. It was tweeted in the last weeks of the negotiation that this could be the floor instead of the ceiling, beginning of additional changes rather than making sure this is it and nothing else can happen. After this happen, it will be very difficult for anyone in the iranian political elite to in private, decisive meetings make the argument for negotiations with the United States. Something dramatic needs to change on this side before i see anyone over there risking their political career by making that argument. I agree with everything my colleague said, during the negotiations what is ironic, when the iranians complained about some of the tough requirements we put in the deal, to tie them down, they would say, we would argue that we dont know what is going to happen to iran, could be a change, we have to guarantee against future change. They say the same to us and our argument was, we have a system by tradition president s respect legacy of predecessors, so you dont need to worry about that. Of course they took us at our word. A truth, we didnt suspect the next administration would come around and tear this up. As we said earlier, the points my colleagues made. Number one, why would iran trust us . Why would those in iran who dont want to trust us, trust us now . How can we get a better agreement with less leverage and less coalition, that doesnt compute. Holly next question, lady right there. She gave me her Business Card and i appreciate it. You guys, that admission, i need your Business Cards before you leave. Question erica with congressman williams office. It is kind of unfair to discount concerns by israel, when during the deal there was rhetoric calling for israel to be wiped off the map and calling america the great satan and i just like you all to speak a little bit about that rhetoric and we know there are sites like partian, i think that is how you say it, that were, we didnt know about and we do, so just address those few things, i guess. Holly rob, can you take that one . Rob sure. Listen, i think it is clear from the Obama Administration that defense of israel and i know john expressed controversial view, i think it is worth articulating and hearing it, but lets take your question at its face. It is true, israel feels iran is a threat to their security. The question is and this is a question that i think president obama tried to answer, is israel more secure with iran moving toward a nuclear bomb or one that is not. That is a conversation, so many conversations about, i get your concerns, lets agree if we have a deal that at a minimum for the next 10 to 15 years, ensure iran cant move toward a nuclear bomb without us knowing right away and we will stop it. That is better than the alternative, that is on that point. Im parsing. Not only did we know about it, that was a Sticking Point to make sure the iaea would have access so they could find issues past military dimension of the iran program would be addressed. It was addressed, we were able to move forward with the deal. If there is evidence today, and none has surfaced, but when nikki haley went to vienna, she said, it is true, we didnt provide evidence of suspicious activity f. The evidence is put forward and the iaea demands access and iran says no, no, no, we face a problem if not resolved through the conflict resolution, we have right to say iran is by the way, we have allies with us, lets listen to them. If they agree, which they would if iran were to bar access in illegitimate way to military sites. That is not what we have today, there is no evidence. There are echos of iraq, we have to be careful of an administration manipulating and leading us down a path we have seen before. Want to seeont happen to israel either. When netanyahus comments get more attention than the Expert Community and military establishment in israel. The vast majority of whom have said this is a good deal, it staves off iranian Nuclear Weapon. It is better to have iran, that doesnt have Nuclear Weapons than a breakout time of a few months. Holly question from this side. Lady right there. Question hi. My name is debra shoeshon, director of policy and Government Relations at americans for peace now. Propeace, proiranian deal organization, if any of you are interested in talking about israeli organization, they organization is proiran deal, we are working to preserve it. My question, i want to flip the question on its head, the question being how would you advise opponents of the deal to kill it. My question is, as someone with an organization working to save this deal, what advice might you have about ways in which organizations like mine and like yours, of course, trita, as well, can push Congress People who are perhaps on the fence about the deal and on say corker cotton legislation to give them i little backbone, such that they might save this deal . What advice do you have . Holly trita, that is all you. Trita thank you. Thank you so much, thank you for what you have been doing on this issue and many other issues. I would say the first thing is that in order to actually be able to not only save the deal, but most importantly make sure there isnt a war and isnt a Nuclear Weapon program in iran, the critical thing to make sure this deal is protected, that means, dont engage in any type of conversation or negotiation that would try to say okay, how can we get some form of sanctions in place in the hope they are not in violation of the deal. That would end up being death of this deal by paper, by thousand paper cuts. Instead, if you want to strengthen this deal, do the one thing that has worked in the last 37 years, there is plenty of concerns on the american side about iran, many legitimate. Of the past 37 years, there is only one example in which the United States actually successfully has managed to change or amend iranian core policy in any significant way and that is through Multi Lateral negotiation with americas closest allies, that is the only time. Everything else has only tended to attract, make the conflicts more difficult, in fact if we were so adamantly optimistic about the sanctions, why is it we have all the problems today after 38 years of sanctions . Shouldnt all sanctions have produced some sort of result in which we could say iran etcetera. It has. Iranians are in a stronger position than they ever have been. Holly sanctions did bring them to the negotiating table. Trita i strongly disagree with that narrative and you will see that in my book about what happened in the secret negotiations. March 2013, the United States for the first time in secret talks held by the government played enrichment card and conveyed to iranians the u. S. Is willing to accept some form of enrichment in iranian soil based on limitations and conditions. That is really what truly opened up the negotiations. But i can go into that in greater detail. But the point being, we have one example that work. Plenty of examples did not work. Why are we, if we want to strengthen this deal, if we want to make sure that israels security, the issue of hezbollah and other things are effectively addressed and we get to a better place, why are we choosing the path in the last 37 years has not produced any results . Holly next question. Yes, right here. Question hi. Mariano, congressman steven lynch. One of the arguments that the opponents of the deal have been making is that while we are seeing iran continue to do Ballistic Missile testing, and one of the arguments that folks in favor of the deal were making, was, well, if we can get the Nuclear Issue off the table, we can focus on other things. Do you think there may have been something that we could have done right after this deal went through to start working on these other issues because then maybe we could have done something to deal with them and wouldnt have this excuse that the opponents are using to find other ways to kill it. Was there an opportunity missed to start doing something on the other issue . Holly thats an excellent question. Rob. Robert malley not only did we not deal with them, we did it during the deal. There were two summits president obama held with gcc colleagues, with the council, go back and look at how much was discussed in term was countering iran, whether cyber, Ballistic Missiles, whether in the gulf, so question iran, though Robert Malley ill get to that in a second. We were trying to make sure our allies would be comforted, they were worried about the deal. We didnt wait for that. Talking about iran and other issues, it is a long story. Some argue why didnt you put it on the table during the talks . The talks would still be ongoing and we would not have addressed all the issues because some of them go to the heart of irans regime and security doctrine, it will be very tough. It is also not clear to me if were here, he would probably disagree, i dont think iran is ready for that kind of discussion. As trita said, first we want to see if this works, we dont trust americans, if is works, maybe we can have other conversations. Secretary kerry tried many times to talk about other issues, he could only go so far, i dont think the foreign minister had that authority. I wish that had happened, we never banked on it, i think president obama was realistic and cleareyed, he didnt expect it by the end of his administration there would be transformation of the relationship. He was hoping we could have discussions on the issues, syria, Ballistic Missiles, hezbollah, i dont think the appetite existed in tehran. Truth known, those will be Difficult Conversations because of how big the gap is. I mean, they, i dont need to make the iranian argument for them, they have strong views about why they need to predict power forward. I think that will be a very tough discussion that needs to be had. Were not off to a good start, as both trita and john said, we dont set the stage for more difficult discussion when you renege on the deal that addressed a stillhard but nonetheless easier issue to tackle. Holly if i could followup on her question there is another issue of the prisoners held in iran. And that in particular, i know, upsets a great deal of members of congress, either american citizens, the iranian government is holding, i believe four, possibly more, some held for several years now. I know we managed to get a few of them freed, the iranians get new people or hanging on to one or two, i mean, this is just i cant contradict anything you said, i cant, im in full agreement tis an outrage, some of them are people trita and i have known for many years. The fact we dont know the people doesnt make it better or worse, these people were unjustifiably detained and being held. But, so all that is true and as you said yourself, there is still many sanctions that are being imposed and embargo still exist, if iran wants a better relationship with us, they will have to live up to what our International Standards and release the detainees. That doesnt mean we sacrifice the nuclear deal, i dont know how that will help get our american citizens back home. Holly here is the thing driving me crazy about this discussion, is that, you know, you guys keep saying iran, iran, iran. The iranian government is make up of various factions, i mean, who is really in charge . I guess im just this is exactly the point. Iran has dynamic domestic political situation, so if youre trying to think to yourself, how do we improve iranian behavior or get them to make concessions on our interests, the question is how do you do it. There are people who believe that only browbeating, hostile rhetoric, threats of war are likely to get a positive response, they are just they either capitulate, or continue to be pains in the butt. There are more sober minded people who understand inside domestic situation, there are hard liners and moderates and if you do things that concede certain things to the other side when you make compromises, it tends to empower moderates who can do the compromises. Now with trump, as trita wisely said, the hard liners in iran are bolstered because they are proving right, these guys warned against trusting the United States from the beginning and were just satisfying their priors. Holly but maybe, let me run this by you, one of the arguments that some people on the conservative side of this argument had, is we should right now empower the hard liners. The idea would be that if you make them really in charge, make them be more hard lined, then it will anger the iranian people enough they will take their government back. This is, ive seen white papers. This flies in the face of every bit of scholarship known about this kind of situation. What you do, you encourage a rally around the flag effect. When, you know, sanctions and other types of things that try to do this, what you are talking about, only create this rally of around the flag effect and sanctions on th own are not actually all that, they dont have a lot of utility as Foreign Policy tool, you have to offer people a way out in exchange for improved action and behavior. Holly trita. Trita im glad you raised that point. This is not a hypothetical, that we have to have a theoretical conversation about what would happen and what would the iranian people want, it is very clear. They have gone in several elections, however flawed those elections are in iran, they have gone there and they have every time that they have been given a chance voted for the least bad, the least hardlined option on the ballot. Precisely because they dont want to go there, they want to see a gradual change, an opening with the United States in the western world and they believe they are in a better position to write a paper about what they and want they think would work that with the opening up of iran, it will strengthen the voices inside the country that actually want interaction with the outside world and marginalize hardline elements. In fact, hard liner necessary iran strongly agree with us, that is part of the reason they are so fearful that this deal ld have led to a broader that they would have u. S. Businesses coming in there. Why they started arresting people right before the deal was struck in order to terrify people who were thinking okay, now iran is open up for business, lets get in that market and interact with the iranians. Let me tell you something to keep in mind. Just recently, apple and google decided to kick out all of the apps in their store produced by in iran. Ngineers app you can find there, they have uber and different things, that should become a very important part of their economy. Now not because of any changes in the law, but because of interpretation of the political context of the sanctions law, apple and google decided they will kick out the apps from their store, which gave pretty much the death knell to many of the companies that have become quite successful. Now who do you think were hurting here . The apps are produced by 20 to 25yearold kids in iran discovering new frontiers, empowering themselves in many different ways. If you go to their offices, you will not see pictures of their leader, you will see pictures of steve jobs, they were hit by this tough policy that is hurting them and not at all hurting the hard liners. Look at the head of cahon newspaper. Cahon is one of the most hardline newspapers in iran, like breitbart, pedalling in a lot of fake news. He said trump just gave us a big gift because this hardline approach is undercutting the moderate, embarrassing the moderates because their gamble did not work out, while causing exactly the rally around the flag phenomena that john just mentioned. They are certainly quite happy. Can i put a bow on that . Eight seconds. We have a little bit of some experience promoting hardliner leader necessary iran. Didnt work out awesome. That is the regime were dealing with now, the reaction to the problem of our excessive meddling in this country. It is a bad route and it is hard to tell innocent iranians, civilians,anian looking outk why dontnterests but worseffer under a dictatorship for awhile so we can get our phones in. All right . Holly yes. Question. Hang on. Question full circle here, we talked about what the u. S. Will to take her last question of what would you recommend to conservatives, what would you recommend to irans leadership . If you are iran and this is occurring, what steps do you do . Stick to the deal and say you will stay with your excuse me, with your European Partners who you have an economic stake in your country . What do you do . If you are advising iran, what would you advise them to do . Holly rob, why dont you start with that one and then trita. Rob not advising iran, i think wise to stick to the deal and put the onus on the u. S. And make sure they draw the words between the u. S. And european allies and say, were the good guys, living by the deal, the u. S. Is not. I think they will do that, that is my suspicion, they will hold to that up until the point economic benefits of the deal start drying up because then those in iran who are in favor of this approach have no argument left. Not only is the u. S. Not making a deal, it is having an effect on the economy. If i were an iranian leader, i would stick to it, get the europeanos my side, convince them to do business despite the threat of secondary sanctions. At some point, may not be attainable, that is what i suspect they should and will continue to do. I dont know if trita agrees. Holly correct me if im wrong, this is important to understand. A lot of u. S. Sanctions that were imposed on iran to get them to come and which were listed were secondary sanctions which were imposed on companies in other countries or threatened to be imposed on other countries that would do business with iran. The whole idea with secondary sanctions is not to punish iran, it is to punish firms outside of iran that might want to do business with iran. So if congress reimposes those sanctions, that is the stick they hold over companies in europe, the idea they will get punished and kept out of the u. S. System if they do business with iran. That is a big, significant point. I want to make sure people understand that. Trita, please go ahead. Trita parsi not about giving recommendation, i want to share what i think they are likely to do. Part i think is perhaps good in the sense of making sure that the deal doesnt get killed, ultimately, i think that would be bad if it was. Right now, notice they are keeping relatively low profile, i think that is because of their calculation that trump is shooting himself in the foot, isolating the United States and as a result, they have no interest in interfering while hes doing that. The area i really worry about, particularly when combined with the suggestions, some of them quite explicit about regime change, that will lead to much, much tougher position of iran in the region, rather than seeing rollback, on the contrary, we will see them become more aggressive in the region as a result of this. That is my big worry. Holly rob, can i ask you one thing. I know a lot of your concern is like, you know, about preventing nuclear war and those types of big things. But what is it like on a personal level to see something that you worked on so hard in the previous administration, like all these things you helped build come under threat of being thrown out, like how is it personally to watch this play out in the white house . Robert malley my wife works on health care, you can imagine our dinner conversations. [laughter] i try not to personalize it, although i admit i probably get more passionate about this than other issues. Obviously, not great, but i do think there are issues on which legacy issues im ambivalent. You told me a policy about this or that, well, may not have gotten it entirely, i feel personally vested. I feel this is a rare nobrainer, it i dont understand other than those who think we shouldnt deal with iran, we should try to squeeze them and hope regime will change, but those who think we can get a better deal this way, i dont understand that argument. It is not i dont think it is a matter of personal feeling, even though you said never good to see several years of work, but others will suffer more than i would if there is confrontation in the region if in fact the regime, as trita said hard liners use this to crack down, a lot of if the iranians retaliate in iraq or syria, troops, men and women in uniform will suffer, my personal feelings, i wont deny exist, are not the primary thing. It is a case, i try to have an open mind, i work at International Crisis group, we put ourselves in other peoples shoes, that is what we do for a living. It is hard to understand the argument, not of those who think iran is a bad actor and we should never make concessions with them, for those who think this is way to improve the deal. Every bone in my body tells me, that will not work. Put yourself in the shoes of an iranian, why would they accept with a gun to their head, if you dont agree to more concessions, then you agree to so far, we will take away the deal, now come to the negotiating table. That makes no sense, iranian, chinese, french, or american. That makes no sense. That is not the way you do business. Im alarmed, we are presenting this choice to the iranians, which basically they could only say no to, an offer they can only refuse. Holly i think time for one more question. Go ahead, medea. Medea im still confused with all this. There are Nuclear Related sanctions, the secondary sanctions. There are nonNuclear Related sanctions. Trita, you said if that either of those would be bad. But yet, if there is nothing, then trump says he is going to undo the deal through Nuclear Related sanctions. Isnt it better to have nonNuclear Related sanctions or can congress do nothing in the next 60 days and how do we secure congress does nothing . Ive heard we should push mccarthy and mcconnell nothing goes to the floor. Could you be specific about 60 days. Holly this is fascinating, someone urging congress to do nothing. Go ahead. Trita parsi i think it is important to keep in mind, it is not just so if you have nuclear based sanctions, nothing bad impose, that would be violation. If you have sanctions, even if they are on the basis of any other issue, terrorism, human rights, but it is targeting irans trait, rather than being targeted, that is violation of the deal. Because otherwise, essentially we have broadbased sanctions and and immediately after they are done, we reimpose the sanctions in a different form with a different basis, that obviously will not work. That is a violation. That is where i think there might be difficulty because everything u. S. Congress is looking at is going to really be difficult to find new areas of sanctions that havent already been sanctioned, arent already sanctioned. We have more sanctions on iraq than any other country. Even sanctions we said have been lifted, they have not been lifted, they have been waived. They have to continue to be waved every 100 to 180 days. Noaction approach, in the sense of no action in the sense of adopting new sanctions, but plenty other things can be done. A, making sure we live up to the deal, honor it in good faith and reengage in diplomacy to address those very same issues that people say in many ways legitimately are concerns. Holly were almost out of time, i want to end this on somewhat light note. If i remember correctly, President Trump referred to it right . Arabian gulf, say, right, to just would say there is no way to make iranians more united against you than to refer to the persian gulf as the arabian gulf and i think, is it fair to say he might have lost iranians with that . He lost iranians with the muslim ban in january already, vast majority of people who were affected by this were iranians and there were really no security basis for that whatsoever, no case of iranians coming here and engaging in lethal terror. On the contrary, its been productive thing for the United States. Already there and in the third iteration of the muslim ban, he has no cred iblt, claiming he wants the best for the iranian people and hes reaching out to him, they are laughing at him. Holly he has nothing to lose. Thank you all so much, really appreciate this. [applause] holly remember to give me your Business Cards. 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