COVID-19: A smart testing strategy is a smart economic investment
By Dr Daya Krishan Mangal and Sharang Shah
The last twelve months have been tumultuous. From detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Wuhan city, China to its spread like wildfire; the disease has impacted almost every country in the world. The rapid spread of COVID-19 is a result of an increasingly globalized world and lack of knowledge of the epidemiology of this novel virus.
In just one year, there have been 93.53 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, and over 2 million people have succumbed to the virus (as of January 15, 2021). The human cost of the pandemic has been devastating; it, however, pales in comparison to the economic cost. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has conservatively estimated that the global economic cost of the pandemic will be around $28 trillion – a per capita productivity loss of over $4,000 per person, higher than the median annual income for a majority of the countries in the world. According to a study by Dr David Cutler (Harvard University) and Dr Lawrence Summer (former Chief Economist, World Bank) released in October, the direct and indirect cost of the virus to the American economy alone could amount to $16 trillion, or approximately 90% of the annual gross domestic product of the US, if the spread of COVID-19 isn't substantially contained until the fall of 2021. Closer home, India has reported 10.52 million confirmed cases and 0.15 million deaths due to COVID-19 since the detection of the first case in Kerala on January 30, 2020. As per official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9% in the April-June quarter of this fiscal year; the sharpest contraction for any quarter in the past for which the same economic data is available.