India could have averted 9 million to 13 million Covid-19 cases and nearly 100,000 deaths if it had introduced soft lockdown restrictions early in March, a study by researchers at academic institutions in the UK and the US has estimated.
While public health experts have argued that restrictions on crowding at social events, election rallies and the Kumbh Mela could have helped mitigate India’s second Covid-19 wave, the new study is the first to estimate the potentially averted cases and deaths.
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The study, led by Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of biostatistics at the University of Michigan and Swapnil Mishra at the Imperial College, London, indicates that while the highly transmissible delta variant contributed to the second wave, the size of the surge could have been lowered through early moderate restrictions.