Transcripts For CNNW Fareed 20240704

Mary tracks health products. You core is a lifes they tried today at your core. Com this is gps, the Global Public square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and around the world. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you from new york on todays program, Bibi Netanyahu approves plans for an assault on rafah one of the most powerful democrats in washington says, israels Prime Minister must go ill ask The Middle East Scholarship Triply to homie to make sense of these developments also the clock maybe ticking on the future of tiktok in the United States the houses voted for legislation that could ban now it is up to the center to ban or not to ban. We will have that debate then. The ai nightmare Silicon Chips deciding whom to kill and whom just say if this isnt happening right now on the battlefield, it is likely to happen soon enough. I will ask an expert what we can expect and what we can do about the Ai Warfare Revolution but first, heres my take. In a recent interview with Russian State Tv, Vladimir Putins had something that was in his words, important for us ourselves, and even more so for our listeners and viewers abroad to understand our way of thinking the one ukraine he explained is for the western way of improving its tactical position visavis russia. But for us, it is our fate. It is a matter of life and death. He said the fundamental mistake in western strategy against russia has been to ignore this reality new Data Confirms that the russian economy has withstood western sanctions far better than most predicted is gdp grew at over 3 last year. And now inflation which reached around 18 in early 2022 seems to be studying at around 7. 5 . Russias largest bank stayed own sberbank recently announced that profits last year, fueled by a Mortgage Boom Surge more than five fold to their highest level levels moscow has survived western sanctions for a variety of reasons. These sanctions are not comprehensive. For example, they do not completely prohibit Russias Energy exports nor can they. The world is too dependent on these resources are total ban if enforceable would lead oil prices to skyrocket and trigger a global recession and as western companies fled russia, nonwestern ones simply replace them. Russians addicted to starbucks will find that those outlets have simply been taken over by stars coffee, a locally owned brand. Indian businessman, tell me that they were able to buy western companys assets in russia at fire sale prices, and now operate those businesses profitably there are lessons here the World Economy is interdependent enough that its hard to ban Something Like oil without imposing huge costs on every one nonwestern economies now make up a large enough part of the world that if they dont go along with sanctions those sanctions lose much of their bite but the largest lesson is surely that economic pressure alone rarely causes countries to capitulate over the decades, washington has placed ruin a sanctions on cuba, north korea, iran, venezuela, and now russia can one say in any of these cases that the regime reversed its policies . The russian economy has survived because putin has done whatever it takes. He has put his country on war footing, rallying its citizens with patriotic rhetoric that often works when people feel besieged for what its worth, the respected independent Levada Center survey recently reported that putins favorably rating has risen to at 6 the Central Bank Raised Interest rates sharply. The Finance Ministry Put in place Foreign Exchange controls, Government Spending has risen dramatically, all to create a military industrial economy these policies and the sanctions will create severe longterm costs for russias economy and society but slow stagnation is something a country can often bear far more easily than a sharp shock putin sees himself in a Take No Prisoners battle with the west he is often indicated that he would not shirk from using Tactical Nuclear weapons he has directed an ongoing and vast information war against key western nations, notably the United States, by one European Commission estimate, posts by accounts linked to the kremlin were viewed at least 16 billion times in the west in the first year of the ukraine war as the us considers, Banning Tiktok, its worth recognizing that the issue is not really who owns the platform, but how malign forces can use any platform to get their message out, make it viral, and undermine truth and facts President Biden has done many big things right in this war. He has rallied the western many nonwestern allies like japan, south korea, in singapore. He has provided moral and Material Support on a vast scale to kyiv republican opponents of aid to ukraine in embracing a policy that is deeply irresponsible and unsafe. One, that if it succeeds would make america week. And the world far more dangerous. And yet, biden and other western leaders must demonstrate that they too will do what it takes and that time is not on putins side. That means using Russias Central Bank reserves now frozen to help ukraine. It means accelerating delivery of every kind of weapon that kyiv needs the pressure that puts needs to feel is not longterm economic decline, but shortterm military setbacks, loss of conquer territory higher casualty rates, and a collapse and morale so cod francis president Emmanuel Macron is surely right that the central fact that must guide western and strategy is that putin cannot win if that means Greater Western involvement. Even military forces of some kind on the ground. Thats better than watching russian aggression succeed macron gave a speech this week in which he said that the conflict was existential for france and europe. The west can only gain the upper hand in this war if it truly believes this and acts on that belief go to cnn. Com slash free for linked to my Washington Post com this week. And lets get started it has been a big week in israel, an assault on rafah, the southernmost city of gaza, looms, despite President Joe Biden warning against such a move meanwhile, Senate Majority leader chuck schumer, one of israels most ardent supporters, has called for fresh elections in israel identifying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace but that piece, which in schumers view must be a twostate solution has perhaps never felt further away. Joining me now to talk about all of this is shipley tell homie the unwerth said that professor for peace and development at the University Of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at brookings chablis. Tell me what youve viewed with studied are Public Opinion for decades and done many, many surveys. Tell me what you think happens if israel does do the assault on rafah well, the fear immediately is a humanitarian disaster on an even bigger scale than we have witnessed so far. We have. As you can see from what has been reported at taking place since the horrific hamas attack on israel on october 7. And then the bombardment of gaza, even after 100 days, they equivalent of three Nuclear Devices in terms of the kilotons of bombs that were dropped. The humanitarian disaster, its been on a scale. We have not really seen since world war ii. And so in that sense, if you have the concentration of refugees who were displaced from other parts of gaza strip into The Strip Along Rafah and adjacent to the egyptian border. Or you have over 1 Million People crowded there. If there is an assault without some way of getting people out of harms way, there would be huge disaster this would be something really on a scale. We have not seen before. And tell me about schumers speech. I thought it was a watershed in the sense of months of frustration the Biden Administration has had with the netanyahu government quietly counseling them to do things differently and be clear. Schumer does not freelance. I assume that this was vetted by the white house does it does it . Signals something new policy for the United States are much more vocal Public Policy of opposition to the netanyahu government hey, Charlie Signal that obviously the Biden Administration, which has been under tremendous attacks for doing nothing to stop the fighting. As you know a lot of the democratic constituents have been pushing the list striation. The administration is finally realizing that this could even cause the president and reelection the israelis commence operations and rafat, the president has declared to be a red line for them to do without Assuring Safety of civilians then that will be the real desk. Its not about nothing in the final thing i want to say on this while nothing, yeah, obviously it seemed to be an obstacle even by israelis as you know, his popularity and israel is still low as wanted to a columnist for our splitted, its the number of people who who who backed him now are smaller number of people who believe Alice Presley is still alive. Its very, very small, but the israeli public it does not want to end the fighting. The israeli public is not supporting a ceasefire. So lets keep that in mind. That the problem is if you isolate and you make, you stay, its all about nothing. The aho, and it turns out that you even need to get rid of methane. Yahoo, you still have a problem of what might happen in gaza has to go beyond individuals, beyond israeli politics. It has to be a much state policy in the current Foreign Affairs, you have an important essay which says everyone now talks about the twostate solution again, as the larger solution to this problem israel and the palestinians. But you say the actually the twostate solution is at this point a mirage. Can you explain briefly what you mean . Yes. I have been a supporter of two states long before it was popular in fact, i lead a personally led efforts to bring his relative closeness together Behind The Scenes Before Oslo and after oslo, because i believed in it. But you know, after the collapse of negotiation and do thousand quarter century ago, we started saying its five minutes to midnight, produce dates, five minutes to midnight produce days. And we we we wake up one morning and its very quartercentury. We still think saying five minutes to midnight. And in the meanwhile, from 2002 now, the prospect is de, diminished every single day, largely because of the expansion of israeli settlements in the west bank that have made it practically impossible to contemplate a contiguous whole thing and state largely because of shifting israeli australian politics, israel is moved way to the right. Nothing yoho aside, Public Opinion, in israel has soured on two States Palestinian Public Opinion has been somewhat more supportive, still soured on the twostage, but they dont trust the us. And now you are talking about a horrific violence on a scale that has scared both the israelis and the palestinians. They see it as an existential threat. You look at Public Opinion now, its even less supportive of two states than it was before. And the invocation of two states even before october 7, was really serving more as its smoke stream to divert detention. Probably reality of over 56 years of one people dominating another with policies have no freedom, imagining that this is only a temporary State Of Affairs of occupation it was a lifetime with no end in sight chablis, Tell Me Pleasure to have you on thank you next on gps, the house voted this week for a bill that could eventually ban the popular app tiktok in america. We will have a spirited debate about whether that is best for the country or goes against americas basic values. When we come United States of scandal with jake tapper. Tonight at nine on cnn, meet avocados, bestselling green mattress made with Certified Organic cotton, wool. And latex, plus pocketed coils to support your bodys natural curve for cool and restorative sleep. Featuring a one year in Home Sleep Trial complete your bedroom away with organic pillows and bedding shop today with avocado green. Proud supporter of 1 for the planet my friends call me sam. 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Com today for up to 70 off Designer Brands house the designers that get your heart racing had inside a prices new every day, hurry. Therell be gone in no Flash Designer Sales at up to 70 or so of gilt. Com today this week. So our ram moment of bipartisan agreement in washington on wednesday, the House Of Representatives voted decisively to pass legislation that could lead to a ban of the popular app tiktok in the United States. That is unless the Chinese Parent Company bytedance agrees to sell the Social Media Platform. The concerns centers around the Chinese Governments potential access to Sensitive Data on the abs 170 million american users. While the bill now faces an uncertain path in the senate, President Biden has said he would sign it if it gets to his Desk A Spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign ministry called a potential tiktok ban, an act of bullying. Let me bring in our experts corey shocky is the director of foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise institute and glenn gusto is the former General Counsel at the National Security agency. Query. Let me ask you, theres sort of two basic arguments that are made when by proponents of this ban or this legislation as i understand you are one of them which is one is the access to data. And the second is the potential for misinformation or disinformation. So why do we play in both your concerns on those fronts . Sure. I i really appreciate the way that you structured the introduction by making clear that this isnt a ban on tiktok. Its so ban on having a major Media Platform in the United States. And its 100 million users subject to chinese nationals security law, which requires companies owned in an operating in china to make their Data Available to the Chinese Government . And bytedance has used the access to the data to surveil journalists and a former Bytedance Executive has testified that they use it to surveil protesters in hong kong so theres not only the possibility, we have the experience of the Company Using the data for nefarious surveillance of people the Chinese Government disagrees with the second argument is the arrow going the other direction, which is their likelihood of Chinese Companies subject to chinese National Security law using their access to the american platform to try and shape the Information Available to americans or even to mobilize americans to political action. And we actually just had the experience of it this last week where tiktok alerted message its hundred and 70 million americans trying to two persuade them to call their congressman. It identified their individual member of congress and the phone number to try and get them to call and advocate against the passage the legislation. I think those are both legitimate National Security concerns okay. Glenn, would how would you respond to both those issues . So does the Data Collection and the misinformation thanks. So there absolutely is a National Security concern over tiktok. No ones saying there isnt. But there are other ways to solve the problem. They require a little bit of nuanced and complexity. And frankly, thats not something that congress does well, we just had a representative from texas the other day earlier this week, say that a vote against this band of against the bill, was a vote in favor of the Chinese Communist party. And thats the sort of rhetoric that inflames this issue and prevents us from getting and to the right kind of more nuanced Public Policy choice here. There is a way of dealing with both the User Data Risk Problem that was just mentioned, as well as the potential for disinformation in a way that isnt going to cause other problems that are going to affect our National Security. And well still solve the problem. We, we america looks good when we stand up for Freedom Of Speech and dont ban various apps. So thats something that china does. They ban this network, cnn, the new york times, google, et cetera. Thats not something the us does. We should be passing privacy legislation that would affect all user data, not just ones on tiktok, but google, facebook. You name it. There are a lot of other solutions we can engage in. It would largely solve the problem and wouldnt have the downsides that this ban it would so cory, how do you respond to that idea that if people are trying to Foreign Governments are trying to get access to user data, they can buy the access the data very easily from phases book from twitter, from all kinds of social media apps. And in fact, there is evidence that the russian government did do that in 2016. They didnt need tiktok i agree and selling user data is something that we absolutely should look into as a policy question. But im a little bit nervous to have to have Civil Liberties advocates arguing that the answer needs to be a lot more censorship than a narrow control on a particular company that has a record of utilizing user data 44, surveillance purposes. And for trying to mobilize americans for political purposes. And when you look at the issue of Freedom Of Speech, glenn, i mean, i assume what youre saying is look, we do allow Russian State Tv to be accessed by americans. I can get russian to state tv and i look and listen to putins propaganda. I can listen to the Chinese Communist party and thats part of what weve always believed as americans that if there are ideas out day, even if the Foreign Government is sponsoring them, americans shouldnt we have the opportunity to listen to them exactly right . You know, the Supreme Court said exactly that, which is that americans have a First Amendment right to receive foreign propaganda even if its nonsense and wrong, thats just part of the part of the picture we have with the First Amendment. And thats a really important freedom that we shouldnt lightly toss aside. And im not suggesting that a ban on tiktok would be tossing that aside, but its a step toward banning a Social Media Platform, something weve never done before. There are constitutional scholars who wonder whether this it is really the right approach we shouldnt be going down that road given that there are other solutions at hand. And im all in favor of banning chinese products. I was the National Security agency and saw firsthand chinas militias snus i lived in hong kong for eight years. So i know what theyre capable of and im not in any way suggesting we should be week or so after ignore this threat, we should, we should, and indeed, our problem properly Banning Tiktok from government phones, from state phones that makes sense. Thats what europe and canada and the eu has done as well. But they havent banned at totally and neither should we all right. Stay with us when we come back. Im going to ask cause who has advised Many Republican president s why the current republican nominee to be donald trump, who tried to ban tiktok when he was president , has now flipped and says, he doesnt want to ban tiktok. When we come back this is the big gap came through that. Do get help reaching your goals with jpmorgan wealth plan, the digital money coach in the chase mobile app use it to set and track your goals. Big and small and see how changes you make today could help put them within reach. 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Yeah, i think its one more example of the Chaos Premium that americans and the world are going to pay if we reelect donald trump as president of the United States because he doesnt appear to have any principles that guide his judgment, except either financial influence or personal event data, and that he thinks facebook is no different and know better than companies that have relationships with the Chinese Government is just a demonstration of how chaotic that Trump Administration was in office and will be in office if reelected. Glenn tell us about the court issue you were General Counsels trump tried to do this. Courts blocked it i my laymans understanding of constitutional law suggests that this legislation could easily be ruled unconstitutiona l by the Supreme Court if it went all the way up there i think theres an issue about that. Theres a technical issue about whether congress is allowed to a single out a particular company. I dont think thats a problem here, but i do think the First Amendment issue is one that is not easily please. Dismissed. You know, when President Trump tried to ban, wechat, a very popular chinese app with his super popular in china. And here in the United States has millions of users especially among those who speak mandarin the ninth Circuit Court of appeals said, whoa, not so fast there First Amendment issues here and impose an injunction on that. I think its entirely possible that a Social Media Platform used by 170 million americans and businesses, including state governments. Anyway, for the federal government in a form of what is essentially a Public Square could well be viewed as the kind of public speech platform that the First Amendment protects. So well have to see if there ever is a court case, but i certainly dont think its an easy question. All right. On that note, we will leave it here. We may come back to you because this issue is not going away and i really want to thank both of you for such a thank you. Civil and thoughtful conversation. Patient about it. Thanks. Next on gps ai is transforming modern warfare. And soon enough, Silicon Chips, instead of human beings could be deciding whom to kill where we come back, ill talk to an about ways to prevent all our disaster Space Shuttle columbia, the final flight from your sunday, april 7 at nine on cnn constant contacts advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time every time konstan contact helping the small stamped all bother the bugs. Match your family ziba was made with Essential Oils which attack bugs biological system finn whites cleanly plus is safe for use around people in past. Zero, people friendly, but im deadly. Toe fungus is tough to kill and it can spread its time to start using funky nail maximum strength bungie nail is so powerful, it cures and prevents fungal infections. 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Theres toothpaste, white and theres chris 3d white strips, white whitens like a 400 professional treatment or not. Crest what happens to the golden boy of new jersey . I engaged in if with another man. Did you want to be outed United States of scandal with jake . Daphne, ive gotta get a therapist if theyre having an interview which i definitely new episode tonight at nine on cnn you may fear Artificial Intelligence will take your job, but consider this ai is already taking part in warfare in ukraine and The Middle East. The advent of fully autonomous Killing Machines is said to be near that would mean a robot making all of its own decisions on the battlefield with no humans in the loop it is a frightening prospect my next guest is one of the worlds top experts on ai warfare. And hes sounding the alarm about its many risks paul shari is a former army ranger, and he is now the executive Vice President and director of studies at the center for a new American Security he has a terrific recent Foreign Affairs article titled the perilous coming age of ai warfare. For welcome, i want to ask you to first define before we get into the scary stuff. What is Artificial Intelligence as its being used in the military . Because at some level, you know, weve had smart weapons for a long time. If you go back to the first gulf war, some human being would say to the, to the missile program, the missile to say go hit that bunker. But but through this window and the missile would go through that window now, what you say is, were fighting a war against this, this enemy, figure out the most effective places to strike the missiles and go strike them. And the computer were using all the data, figure out what the optimal targets are, and then going and launch the missiles. Well, right now that humans are still saying what targets to go after. But the ai onboard the drone is able to sense those targets. So were able to sense thats an enemy tank or a truck, or an Armored Personnel Carrier and thats a decision that were increasingly seeing then humans seating two machines, right so in other words, were saying right now the human is the human doesnt need to be in the loop because if if you would just say, do the most effective strikes that will cripple putins are army in this area. The machine would figure out what that word that was. In fact, theres a theres a strong incentive to take humans inside of the loop. Because as weve seen, drones used extensively in ukraine in both sides are using thousands of drones in the air. While the vulnerability there is the communications linked here the human, because most of these drones over remotely piloted. And so weve seen also an explosion in Counter Drone Systems like jammy and autonomy allows the human to step out of that that vulnerability and allow the drug to operate without a communication its linked to a human. So in a sense, what youre saying is the most effective mechanized warfare would now be the machines figuring out the targets themselves, going and striking the targets themselves correcting course of they noticed the crockett has moved firing back if the essentially engaging in all this without any Human Involvement when youre talking about drone on, drone that sounds fine. Whats wrong with it . Whats the concern . Well, theres a couple of concerns. One is that the machine may get it wrong, may target the wrong thing, causing civilian casualties. Maybe in before a conflict starts, even escalating the conflict. And weve seen lots of places around the world. War military is Operator Forces near each other in the black sea the south china sea, and the idea that an ai system might make a mistake follow whatever it was trained to do. But then attack a target thats not what a human wanted it to do. One of the things you worry about is that we are entering this age of Generative Ai where the computers are going to be able to do much more than just pick the targets and things describe what you think. And i dont think this is disturbing because its a very likely future where what is ai get used in the Military Realm . Four well, one of the things that weve already seen is that these more capable general purpose models like chatgpt, can perform a whole wide range of tasks. They can play chess, they can all right computer code. They can also do things that might be misused. So if they can write computer code, they can also be used to aid in Cyber Attacks they can be used to help conduct scientific experiments and people have demonstrated that they could help people and building and designing chemical and biological weapons we want to ensure that as theres tremendous advantages with this technology, there is also sufficient guardrails around it, so that its not misused by actress who might want to cause harm. But right now theres no agreement, no Arms Control Process For Ai in militaries at all. Well, thats right. There is no specific agreement surrounding ai we have seen do not eat states make a statement in 2022 that their official policy is that they will keep humans always in the loop for Nuclear Weapons decisions. But russians and chinese have not said that. They have not said that. And that seems like a low bar to clear when we think about where do we want to make sure that humans are always in control . But i think it is concerning that we havent seen that from all nuclear arm states yet. Whats the most dystopian thing you worry about some chinese scholars have theorized about an idea called a singularity on the battlefield. A point in time in the distant future where the pace of ai driven combat so fast that humans have to be taken out of the loop that humans cant possibly respond much less, what we see in areas like automated stock trading. We have highfrequency trading happening. Its superhuman speeds and the concern then is that militaries would have to see you control to machines in order to remain effective. And humans would be effectively on the sidelines. And then the challenge there is, how do you ensure that humans are many control of work . How would we end wars . I think thats a very, its not a nearterm problem, but thats something that concerns me in the future ball. Pleasure to have you on. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Next on gps . Haiti is in crisis. 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They have seized ports, lead prison breaks, burned down police stations shutdown hospitals, and more. The upheaval came to a political head this week with the countrys unpopular Prime Minister, ariel henry announcing his plans to resign this is just the latest trouble for haiti and island nation, born of a Slave Revolution 220 years ago, founded with great hope as the first Free Black Republic anywhere on the globe. Joining me now to talk about how this happened and what comes next is me, willards, who has been reporting on haiti since the mid 1980s me. Welcome. Thank you for coming on. Let me first ask you to tell us what is happening on the ground because it seems that the Prime Minister who has been supported by the United States has become more and more unpopular. But now the opposition has morphed into a kind of insurgency with a bunch of gangs that ive taken over large parts of the country. Am i right thats pretty accurate to say that there the former Prime Minister is fleeing is a little bit overstated because what happened was he tried to get back into the country, but the gangs that youre talking about who are now leading this almost coup detat . Tak the airport and he couldnt get back into haiti, so he was trying to get back in he did not he was hoping not to resign, i think. But then the situation forced him to resign. He was too unpopular and then he couldnt even get back into the country. So hes in puerto rico now. But this insurgency is very serious because the gangs have been somewhat disparate. There are 200 gangs, some of them very large, and some of them small. The larger ones you would have to call paramilitaries really, theyre funded, they have lots of arms, army style arms, and they have now started to really attack haitian state institutions. For example, the police force, which is the only force of order in haiti. Today, there is no haitian army to speak of and they burn down the house of the chief of police thats like burning down that has of the highest general in the army and the United States at the moment in haiti, the gangs are attacking the state, but theyre also attacking neighborhoods. So its confusing for the people of haiti. They dont really know what the gang stand for. And meanwhile, theres a semi democratic process trying to take place. Run in part, or at least conducted in part by caricom, the caribbean community. And organization of caribbean states how the gangs that are taking over the government or taking over the country seemed to be msis, you said their work funded, but from what i can tell, thats a lot of drug money funding it and its it feels like this would be bad for haiti, of course, but also could lead to Mass Migration to the United States what happens if this, these gangs do take over the country . Well, the games have started making noises about how democratic they are and how much they care about the haitian people. But i think the haitian people are wise enough to recognize that they have been deeply harmed by the gangs over the past twoandahalf years so i dont think thats going to wash and i think youre right, its moving toward narcostate. Its not just Drug Traffickers who are funding these bands of armed men, but they are very important in how this has worked out and everyone is worried that this will be a narcostate. And yes, of course, that could lead to Mass Migration. Its already leading to some migration because people are forced out of their home, Something Like 300,000 people have been displaced in recent years. In a sense, the Biden Administration is hoped that they could just avoid getting involved in this and that it didnt it didnt blow up on them, but they kind of looks like it is blowing up because i mean, in the old days when Something Like this happened, washington would send in the troops pick a new Prime Minister, and try to stabilize things. Its confusing for them because as you said, usually we send in the marines its over. We put someone in place and thats done. But now there is you could call it the democratic facade for that kind of regime change. But its definitely a present facade and theyre working on replacing ariel henry with a consensus choice. To lead the country to actual elections and to come down the security situation. But how you calm it down without a force of equal power and to calm the gangs, i dont know. And i think the americans are equally stymied. They dont want to be seen to be forcing the game, but in fact, theyre still playing behind the scenes it seems like one of these classic dilemma is, if you dont go in, if you go in, youll be seen as an imperialist. If you dont go in, there will be chaos and anarchy might seem negligent in not going very go well. I dont envy the Biden Administration this is a really tough diorama amy will always a pleasure to have you on. Thank you so much. Thanks and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week, i will see you next week. Dont forget if you ms a. Show, go to cnn. Com slash fareed for a link to my itunes podcast via headliner las vegas thats what i want to do. Its online get anywhere else in the world. Vegas, the story of sin city, tonight, 810 on cnn you need tmobile Home Internet with tmobile has Home Internet whatever weather comes your way. Whether tech has you covered with a laser measured kernel . 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