Transcripts For CNNW Fareed 20240704

Gps, the Global Public square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and Around The World. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you from new york on todays program, Bibi Netanyahu approves plans for an assault on rafah at one of the most powerful democrats in washington says israels Prime Minister must go ill ask The Middle East scholars should be to homie, to make sense of these developments also, the clock may be ticking on the future of tiktok in the United States the house has voted for legislation that could ban. Now it is up to the center to ban or not to ban. We will have that debate then. The ai nightmare, Silicon Chips deciding whom to kill and whom say if this isnt happening right now on the battlefield, it is likely to happen soon enough. I will ask an expert what we can expect and what we can do about the Ai Warfare Revolution but first, heres my take. In a recent interview with Russian State Tv, Vladimir Putins had something that was in his words important for us ourselves and even more so for our listeners and viewers abroad to understand our way of thinking the one ukraine he explained is for the western way of improving its tactical position visavis russia. But for us, it is our fate. It is a matter of life and death. He said the fundamental mistake in western strategy against russia has been to ignore this reality new Data Confirms that the russian economy has withstood western sanctions far better than most predicted its gdp grew at over 3 last year. And now inflation, which reached from the 18 in early 2022, seems to be studying at around 7. 5 . Russias largest bank, stateowned sberbank, recently announced that profits last year, fueled by a mortgage boom, surge more than five fold to their highest level levels moscow has survived western sanctions for a variety of reasons these sanctions are not comprehensive for example, they do not completely prohibit Russias Energy exports, nor can they. The world is too dependent on these resources are total ban if enforceable would lead oil prices too skyrocket and trigger a global recession. And as western companies fled, russia, nonwestern ones simply replace them russians addicted to starbucks will find that those outlets have simply been taken over by stars coffee or locally on brand indian businessman, tell me that they were able to buy western companys assets in russia at fire sale prices, and now operate those businesses profitably there are lessons here. The World Economy is interdependent enough that its hard to ban Something Like oil without imposing huge costs on everyone nonwestern economies now make up a large enough part of the world that if they dont go along with sanctions those sanctions lose much of their bite. But the largest lesson is surely that economic pressure alone rarely causes countries to capitulate over the decades, washington has placed ruin a sanctions on cuba, north korea, iran, venezuela, and now russia can one say in any of these cases that the regime reversed its policies the russian economy has survived because putin has done whatever it takes he has put his country on a war footing, rallying its citizens with patriotic rhetoric that often works when people feel besieged for what its worth the respected independent Levada Center survey. Recently reported that putins favorable rating has risen to at 6 the Central Bank Raised Interest rates sharply. The Finance Ministry Put in place Foreign Exchange controls. Government spending has risen dramatically all to create a military industrial economy these policies and the sanctions will create severe longterm costs for russias economy and society. But slow stagnation is something a country can often bear far more easily than a sharp shock putin sees himself in a take no prisoners battle with the west. He is often indicated that he would not shirk from using Tactical Nuclear weapons he has directed an ongoing and vast information war against key western nations, notably the United States, by one European Commission estimate, posts by a linked to the kremlin were viewed at least 16 billion times in the west in the first year of the ukraine war as the us considers, Banning Tiktok, its worth recognizing that the issue is not really who owns the platform, but how malign forces can use any platform to get their message out, make it viral, and undermine truth and facts President Biden has done many big things right in this war. He has rallied the west and many nonwestern japan, south korea, and singapore. He has provided moral and Material Support on a vast scale to kyiv republican opponents of aid to ukraine. I embracing a policy that is deeply irresponsible and unsafe. One that if it succeeds would make america week and the world far more dangerous. And yet biden and other western leaders must demonstrate that they too will do what it takes and that time is not on putins side. That means using Russias Central Bank reserves now frozen to help ukraine. It means accelerating delivery of every kind of weapon that kyiv needs the pressure that puts needs to feel is not longterm economic decline, but shortterm military setbacks, loss of conquer territory higher casualty rates, and a collapse and morale so cod francis, president Emmanuel Macron is surely right that the central fact that must guide western is that putin cannot win. If that means Greater Western involvement, even military forces of some kind on the ground. Thats better than watching russian aggression succeed macron gave his speech this week in which he said that the conflict was existential for france and europe the west can only gain the upper hand in this war if it truly believes this an acts on that belief go to cnn. Com slash fareed for link to my Washington Post column this week. And lets get started it has been a big week in israel, an assault on rafah, the southernmost city of gaza looms, despite President Joe Biden warning against such a move meanwhile, Senate Majority leader chuck schumer, one of israels most ardent supporters, has called for fresh elections in israel identifying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace but that piece, which in schumers view must be a twostate solution, has perhaps never felt further away. Joining me now to talk about all of this, is shipley tell homie The Unversidad Professor for peace and development at the university of maryland, and a Senior Fellow at brookings chablis. Tell me what you view this study are Public Opinion for decades and done many, many surveys tell me what you think happens if israel does do the assault on rafah well, the fear immediately is of disaster on an even bigger scale than we have witnessed are we have, as you can see from what has been reported at taking place since the horrific hamas attack on israel on october 7. And then the bombardment of gaza even after 100 days, they equivalent of three Nuclear Devices in terms of the kilo tons of bombs that were dropped the humanitarian disaster, its been on a scale. We have not really seen since world war ii and so in that sense, if you have a concentration of refugees who were displaced from other parts of gaza strip into the strip along rafah on adjacent to the egyptian border over 1 Million People crowded there. If there is an assault without some way of getting people out of harms way, there would be a huge disaster. This could be something really on a scale. We have not seen the floor. And tell me about schumers speech. I thought it was a watershed in the sense of months of frustration that the Biden Administration has had with the netanyahu government. Quietly counseling them to do things differently. And be clear. Schumer does not freelance. I assume that this was vetted by the white house does it does it signal something . If new policy for the United States are much more vocal, Public Policy of opposition to the netanyahu government its certainly signal that obviously the Biden Administration, which has been under tremendous attacks for doing nothing to stop the fighting. As you know a lot of the democrats lets take us havent been pushing that list the administration is finally realizing that this could even crossed the president s reelection. So if in fact they, israelis commenced operations and the president has declared to be a red line for them to do without assuring safety oh civilians, then that will be the real desk. Its not about nothing in the second, the final thing i want to say on this is that while nothing you obviously it seemed to be an obstacle even by israelis as you know, his popularity and israel is so as wanted to a Columnist Column this for us, but its the number of people who, who, who backed him now are smaller number of people who believe Elvis Presley is still alive. Its very, very small, but the israeli public does not want to end the fighting. They israeli public is not supportive of a ceasefire. So lets keep that in mind. That the problem is if you isolate and you make, you say its all about nothing, the aho and it turns out out that you even need to get rid of methane yahoo, you still have a problem of what might happen in gaza. It has to go beyond individuals, beyond israeli politics. It has to be a much state policy in the current Foreign Affairs, you have an important essay which says everyone now talks about the twostate solution again this larger solution to this problem of israel and the palestinians but you say the actually the twostate solution is at this point a mirage. Can you explain briefly what you mean . Yes, i have been a supporter of two states long before it was popular. In fact, i lead a personally led efforts to bring his welcome heres together Behind The Scenes Before Oslo and after oslo, because i believed in it. But you know, after the collapse and negotiate in 2000 quarter century ago, we started saying its five minutes to midnight for dates, five minutes to midnight produce days. And we we we wake up one morning and its very quartercentury teresa, we still think by willis to midnight. And in the meanwhile, from 2002 now the prospect is de diminished every single day, largely because of the expansion of israeli settlements in the west bank that have made it practically impossible to contemplate a contiguous all thing and state largely because but of shifting israeli politics, israel has moved way to the right. Nothing yahoo i cited Public Opinion in israel has soured on two States Palestinian Public Opinion has been somewhat more supportive, still soured on the twostage, but they dont trust the us and now you are talking about a horrific violence on a scale that has scared both the israelis and the vineyard. They see it as an essential bread. You look at Public Opinion now, its even less supportive of two states that it was before the invocation of two states even before october 7 was really serving more as its smoke stream to divert attention. Probably reality of over 56 years of one people dominating another with policies have no freedom imagining that this is only a temporary State Of Affairs of occupation it wasnt lifetime with No End In Sight ship little homie, pleasure to have you on thank you next on gps, the house voted this week for a bill that could eventually ban the popular app tiktok in america. We will have a spirited debate about whether that is best for the country or goes against americas basic values when we come United States of scandal with jake tapper. Tonight at nine on cnn. Zyrtec allergy relief works fast and last a full 24 hours. So dave, can bva deliver dance . Okay, dave, lets be more than our allergies. Seize the day with zyrtec. 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That is, unless the Chinese Parent Company bytedance agrees to sell the Social Media Platform, the concerns centers around the Chinese Governments potential access to Sensitive Data on the abs, 170 million american users while the bill now faces an uncertain path in the senate, President Biden has said he would sign it if it gets to his Desk A Spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign ministry called a potential tiktok ban, an act of bullying let me bring in our experts query. Shocky is the director of foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise institute. And glenn gusto is the former General Counsel at the National Security agency. Cory. Let me ask you, theres sort of two basic arguments that are made when by proponents of this band or this legislation, as i understand you are one of them which is one is the access to data and the second is the potential for misinformation or disinformation. So why do we explain both your concerns on those fronts . Sure i i really appreciate the way that you structured the introduction though by making clear that this isnt a ban on tiktok, its a ban on having a major Media Platform in the United States and its 170 million users subject to chinese National Security law, which requires companies owned in an operating in china to make their Data Available to the Chinese Government . And bytedance has used the access to the data to surveil journalists and a former Bytedance Executive has testified that they use it to surveil protesters in hong kong so theres not only the possibility we have the experience of the Company Using the data for nefarious surveillance of people. The Chinese Government disagrees with. The second argument is the arrow going the other direction . Which is their likelihood of Chinese Companies subject to chinese National Security law using their access to the american platform to try and shape the Information Available to americans. Or even to mobilize americans to Political Action and we actually just had the experience of it this last week, where tiktok alerted, messaged its hundred and 70 million americans trying to persuade them to call their congressmen. It identified their individual member of congress and the phone number to try and get them to call and advocate against the passage of the legislation. I think those are both legitimate National Security concerns okay. Glenn well, how would you respond to both those issues . Who does the Data Collection and the misinformation . Thanks so theyre absolutely is a National Security concern over tiktok. No ones saying there isnt. But there are other ways to solve the problem and they require a little bit of nuance and complexity. And frankly, thats not something that congress does well we just had a representative from texas the other day earlier this week, say that a vote against this ban, a vote against the bill was a vote in favor of the Chinese Communist party. And thats the sort of rhetoric that inflames this issue and prevents us from getting to the right kind of more nuanced Public Policy the choice here, there is a way of dealing with both the User Data Risk Problem that was just mentioned, as well as the potential for disinformation in a way that isnt going to cause other problems that are going to affect our National Security. And well still solve the problem we, we america looks good when we stand up for Freedom Of Speech and dont ban various apps. So thats something that china does. They ban this network, cnn, the new york times, google, et cetera. Thats not something the us does we should be passing privacy legislation that would affect all user data, not just ones on tiktok, but google, facebook. You name it. There are a lot of other solutions we can engage in that would largely solve the problem and wouldnt have the downsides that this aband would. So cory, how do you respond to that idea that if people are trying to Foreign Governments are trying to get access to user data, they can buy the access the data very easily from facebook, from twitter, from all kinds of social media apps. And in fact, there is evidence that the russian government did do that in 2016. They didnt need tiktok i agree and selling user data is something that we absolutely should look into as a policy question. But im a little bit nervous to have to have Civil Liberties advocates arguing that the answer needs to be a lot more first than a narrow control on a particular company that has a record of utilizing user data for surveillance purposes, and for trying to mobilize americans for political purposes. And when you look at the issue of Freedom Of Speech, glenn, i mean, i assume what youre saying is, look, we do allow Russian State Tv to be accessed by americans. I can get russian to state t. V. And i look and listen to putins propaganda. I can listen to the Chinese Communist party and thats part of what weve always believed as americans that if there are ideas are day, even if the Foreign Government is sponsoring them, americans should have the opportunity to listen to them exactly right . You know, the Supreme Court said exactly that, which is that americans have a First Amendment right to receive foreign propaganda even if its nonsense and wrong, thats just part of the part of the picture we have with the First Amendment. And thats a really important freedom that we shouldnt lightly toss aside and im not suggesting that a ban on tiktok would be tossing that aside, but its a step toward banning Social Media Platform, something weve never done before. There are constitutional scholars who wonder whether this is really the right approach. We shouldnt be going down that road given that there are other solutions at hand. And im all in favor of banning chinese products. I was at the National Security agency and saw firsthand chinas militias snus, i lived in hong kong for eight years. So i know what theyre capable of and im not in any way suggesting we it should be week or so after ignore this threat, we should, we should and indeed are properly Banning Tiktok from Government Phones from state phones. That makes sense. Thats what europe and canada and the eu is done as well. But they havent banned at totally and neither should we all right. Stay with us when we come back. Im going to ask coy shocky, who has advised Many Republican president s why the current republican nominee to be donald trump, who tried to ban tiktok when he was president , has now flipped and says, he doesnt want to ban tiktok. 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Giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. Than 20, go to deal dash. Com and see how much you can save this is cnn newsroom and we are back talking about tiktok with corey shocky, the director of foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise institute and glenn gastel, who is the former General Counsel at the National Security agency so cory, how do you explain trumps flipflop . He tried to ban tiktok and courts basically said he couldnt do it, at least not by Executive Decree now hes recently said, im not sure thats a good idea because in his view, that will make facebook bigger and to him, facebook is the real enemy. Yeah. I think its one more example of the Chaos Premium that americans and the world are going to pay if we reelect donald trump as president of the United States because he doesnt appear to have any principles that guide his judgment, except either financial influence or personal vendetta. And that he thinks facebook is no different and no better than companies that have relationships with the Chinese Government is just a demonstration of how chaotic that Trump Administration was in office and will be in office if reelected. Glenn, tell us about the court issue you were General Counsels trump tried to do this. Courts blocked it. I my laymans understanding of constitutional law suggests that this legislation could easily be ruled unconstitutiona l by the Supreme Court if it went all the way up there. I think theres an issue about that. Theres a technical issue about whether congress is allowed to a single out, a particular company. I dont think thats a problem here, but i do think the First Amendment issue is one that is not easily dismissed. You know, when President Trump tried to ban wechat, a very popular chinese app with his super popular in china. And here in the United States as millions of users, especially among those who speak mandarin. The ninth Circuit Court of appeals said, whoa, not so fast there First Amendment issues tear and impose an injunction on that. I think its entirely possible that a Social Media Platform used by 170 million americans and businesses, including State Governments and even the federal government in a form of what is essentially a public square, could well be viewed as the kind of public speech platform that the First Amendment protects. So well have to see if there ever is a court case, but i certainly dont think its an easy question to answer. All right. On that note, we will leave it here. We may come back to you because this issue is not going away and i really want to thank both of you for such a thank you, civil and thoughtful conversation about it. Thanks. Next on ups, ai is transforming modern warfare. 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Mom i added the garnish stay twice and get a free night when you booked direct there is no Media Personality businesswoman celebrity chef, leichhardt many lives of Martha Stewart now streaming on macs you may fear Artificial Intelligence will take your job, but consider this ai is already taking part in warfare in ukraine and The Middle East. The advent of fully autonomous Killing Machines is said to be near that would mean a robot making all of its own decisions on the battlefield with no humans in the loop. It is a frightening prospect. My next guest is one of the worlds top experts on ai warfare. And hes sounding the alarm about its many risks paul shari is a former army ranger, and he is now the executive Vice President and director of studies at the center for a new american security. He has a terrific recent Foreign Affairs article titled the perilous coming age of ai warfare. For welcome, i want to ask you to first define before we get into the scary stuff what is Artificial Intelligence as its being used in the military . Because at some level, you know, weve had smart weapons for a long time. If you go back to the first gulf war, some human being would say to the missile would program the muscle to say go hit that bunker. But but through this window and the missile would go through that window now, what you say is, were fighting a war against this, this enemy, figure out the most effective places to strike the missiles and go strike them. And the computer well using all the data, figure out what the optimal targets are, and then go in and launch to ms were right now that humans are still saying what targets to go after. But the ai onboard to drown is able to sense those targets. So were able to sense, thats an enemy tank for a truck, or an Armored Personnel Carrier and thats a decision that were increasingly seeing. Then Human Seating two machines, right . So in other words, were saying, right now the human is the human doesnt need to be in the loop because if you would just say strode, do the most effective strikes that will cripple putins are army in this area the machine would figure out what that was. And in fact, theres a theres a strong incentive to take humans out of the loop. Because as weve seen, drone she was extensively in ukraine in both sides are using thousands of drones in the air. Well, the vulnerability there is the Communications Link to the human because most of these drones over remotely piloted. And so weve seen also an explosion in counter Drone Systems like jamming and autonomy allows the human to step out of that, that vulnerability and allow the drone to operate without a Communications Link to a human. So in a sense, what youre saying is the most effective mechanized warfare would now be the machines figuring out the targets themselves, going and striking the targets themselves, correcting course of they noticed the gracchi that has moved firing back if the essentially engaging in all this without any Human Involvement when the dogma drone on drone that sounds fine. Whats wrong with it . Whats the concern . Well, theres a couple of concerns. One is that the machine may get it wrong, may target the wrong thing, causing civilian casualties. Maybe in before a conflict starts, even escalating the conflict and we see lots of places Around The World were militaries, Operator Forces near each other in the black sea in the south china sea. And the idea that an ai system might make a mistake. Follow whatever it was trained to do. But then attack a target thats not what a human wanted it to do. One of the things you worry about is that we are entering this age of Generative Ai where the computers are going to be able to do much more than just pick the targets and things. Describe what you think. And i dont think this is disturbing because its a very likely future where what is ai get used in the Military Realm for well, one of the things that weve already seen is that these more capable general purpose models like chatgpt, can perform a whole wide range of tasks. They can play chess, they can write Computer Code they can also do things that might be misused. So if they can write Computer Code, they can also be used to aid in cyber attacks. They can be used to help conduct scientific experiments. And people have demonstrated that they could help people in building and designing chemical and biological weapons and so we want to ensure that as theres tremendous advantages with this technology, theres also sufficient guardrails around it so that its not misused by actress who might want to cause harm. But right now there is no agreement, no Arms Control Process For Ai in military there is that all. Well, thats right. There is no specific agreements surrounding ai. We have seen the United States make a statement in 2022 that their official policy is that they will keep humans always in the loop for Nuclear Weapons decisions. But russians and chinese have not said that. They have not said that. It seems like low bar to clear when we think about where do we want to make sure that humans are always in control . But i think it is concerning that we havent seen that from all nuclear arm states yet whats the most dystopian thing you worry about . Some chinese scholars have theorized about an idea called a singularity on the battlefield. A point in time in the distant future where the pace of ai driven combat is so fast that humans have to be taken out of the loop that humans cant possibly respond much less, what we see in areas like automated stock trading. We have highfrequency trading happening at superhuman speeds. And the concern then is that militaries would have to see you control two machines in order to remain effective. And humans would be effectively on the sidelines and then the challenge there was, how do you ensure that humans remain in control of word . How would we end wars . And i think thats a very, its not a nearterm problem, but thats something that concerns me in the future. Well, pleasure to have you on. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having me next on gps. Haiti is in crisis. Once again why does this nation seem perpetually on the brink . Gov collapse . 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Violent gangs now control most of the city they have seized forts, lead prison breaks, burned down, police stations, shutdown hospitals, and more the upheaval came to a political head this week with the countrys unpopular Prime Minister ariel henry announcing his plans to resign. This is just the latest trouble for haiti and island nation, born of a slave revolution, 220 years ago founded with great hope as the first Free Black Republic anywhere on the globe. Joining me now to talk about how this happened and what comes next is me, willards, who has been reporting on haiti since the mid 19 amy, welcome. Thank you for coming on. Let me first ask you to tell us what is happening on the ground because it seems that the Prime Minister who has been supported by the United States has become more and more unpopular. But now the opposition has morphed into a kind of urgency with a bunch of gangs that ive taken over. Large parts of the country. Am i right . Thats pretty accurate to say that that there the former Prime Minister is fleeing. It is a little bit overstated because what happened was he tried to get back into the country, but the gangs that youre talking embed who are now leading this almost coup detat Attack The Airport and he couldnt get back into haiti. So he was trying to get back in. He did not he was hoping not to resign, i think but then the situation forced him to resign. He was two unpopular and then he couldnt even get back into the country. So hes in puerto rico now but this insurgency is very serious because the gangs have been somewhat disparate. There are 200 gang, some of them very large, and some of them small. The larger ones you would have to call paramilitaries, really their funded, they have lots of Arms Army Style arms, and they have now started to really attack haitian State Institutions for example, the police force, which is the only force of order in haiti today, there is no haitian army to speak of. And they burn down the house of the chief of police thats like burning down that has of the highest general in the army and the United States at the moment at the gangs are attacking the state, but theyre also attacking neighborhoods. So its confusing for the people of haiti. They dont really know what the gang stand for. And meanwhile, theres a semi democratic process trying to take place. Run in part, or at least conducted in part by caricom, the caribbean community. An organization of caribbean states how the gangs that are taking over the government or taking over the country seemed to be, as you said, their wellfunded, but from what i can tell, its a lot of drug money funding it and its it feels like this would be bad for haiti. Of course, but also could lead to Mass Migration to the United States what happens if this, these gangs do take over the country . Well, the games have started making noises about how democratic they are and how much they care about the haitian people. But i think the haitian people are wise enough to recognize that they have been deeply harmed by the gangs over the past 2. 5 years so, i dont think thats going to wash and i think youre right, its moving toward narcostate. Its not just Drug Traffickers who are funding these bands of armed men, but they are very important in how this has worked out and everyone is worried that this will be an narcostate. And yes, of course, that could lead to Mass Migration. Its already leading to some migration because people are forced out of their home, Something Like 300,000 people have been displaced in recent years. In a sense, the Biden Administration is hoped that they could just avoid getting involved in this and that it didnt it didnt blow up on them, but it kind of looks like it is blowing up because i mean, in the old days when Something Like this happened, washington would send in the troops pick a new Prime Minister, and try to stabilize things. Its confusing for them because as you said, usually we send in the marines and its over, right . We put someone in place and thats but now there is you could call it that democratic facade for that kind of regime change. But its definitely a present facade and theyre working on replacing ariel henry with a consensus choice. To lead the country to actual elections and to calm down the security situation. But how you calm it down without a force of equal power to calm the gangs. I dont know. And i think the americans are equally stymied. They dont want to be seen to be forcing the game, but in fact, theyre still playing behind the scenes it seems like one of these classic dilemma is, if you dont go in, if you go in, youll be seen as an imperialist. If you dont go in, there will be chaos and anarchy might seem negligence. In not very go well. I dont envy the Biden Administration this is a really tough diorama me, well add always a pleasure to have you on. Thank you so much. Thanks. For me. And thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week, i will see you next week dont forget if you mr. Shaw, go to cnn. Com slash fareed for link to my itunes podcast this is the Big Game Names2 that do i wont let my moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis symptoms define me emerge as you with trump via most people saw 90 clear skin for months, and the majority stayed clearer. Id five years cbs allergic reactions may occur, can fire, may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. Tell you dr. If you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to emerge as you emerge trim phi, it asked your dr. About trump via rsv is out there for those 60 years and older, protect against rsv with a wreck sv, a rx is a vaccine used to prevent lower Respiratory Disease from rsv. 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