state of the race. >> did anyone notice what happened on tuesday? >> democrats celebrate decisive wins in ohio, virginia and kentucky. but what do the results really tell us about joe biden's path to re-election? and what lessons will republicans take from their disappointing night? >> we're talking about people's lives and we win. plus, manchin out. >> i will not be running for re-election. >> he shakes up the senate map. will he shake up the presidential race next. and kevin mccarthy unloads. >> he would throw his country away to try to protect himself. i don't think he's earned the right to get re-elected. >> former house speaker lashes out for those that ousted him. is he out for revenge. inside politics starts now. good morning and welcome to "inside politics sunday." i'm manu raju. there are 50 days less in 2023 but for many of us here in washington and in the early primary states it feels like 2024. in this past week it was confusing for the political world. showing president biden in deep trouble tuesday was another good election day for democrats and they're quick to point out they've had many good election days over the past two years. >> the people, whether they be in soho red or blue states voted for free. they voted for liberty. and by extension they voted to uphold our democracy. and so all of that is at stake. we have emplmomentum. the wind is at our back. >> new frustrated republicans told me after that election, that the party needs a reckoning on social issues like abortion. >> well, we're talking about people's lives, we win. when we are talking about some social issues, they could become highly divisive and we end up not doing as well as we could have. >> absolutely wake-up call for republicans and if they don't listen, we'll have problems next year. and the electorate is deeply unhappy with the direction of the country. joe biden is showing being losing and voters think the 80-year-old biden is too old and his policies are not working, but he was back out on the campaign trail trying to convince them other wise. >> i ran for president to bring back good paying jobs whether or not you went to college and give more breathing room and the way to do that is to invest in ourself again and american workers and that is exactly what we've done. i've never been more optimistic about america today and i know it looks like i've only been around 30 but i've been around for a long time. >> jeff zeleny and "the washington post" marianna sotomayor and so nice of you to join us. this is an interesting week. and in politics and trying to figure out what this means for 2024. maybe a lot. but there are a lot of key signs. amy, what is your takeaway, yes they've done well in the elections but things are looking bad for biden, how do they reconcile these? >> well you reconcile this when saying there is a choice in front of voters, they have to -- it is no longer theoretical and they have to decide do we want to take this candidate or this ideology, or this person or that person and that is why the white house does feel more confident about 2024 than the polls suggest because we're focusing on biden, because he's the president of the united states. once it is a clear contrast with donald trump, voters are going to get that same sort of choice like we saw in this -- not just this last election, last week, but in special elections and in off year elections, throughout the year democrats have overperformed. one thing i will be really weary about the issue of abortion, i think voters are clear, when you put it on the agenda, like literally abortion access or less abortion access, it wins, no matter whether you're in a red or blue state. if you're asking voters to support a candidate who may have opinions about abortion, that is -- that are different from yours, that may be very, very different. >> and it is a perfect point segue into this graphic showing exactly where voters are voted on abortion. seven states have voted to protect abortion rights post dob's decision. and montana and ohio this past tuesday and also kentucky and kansas. but as you were saying, looking at polls here, abortion registering in terms of the most important issue, it is down, not the lowest but down on the bottom, 7% compared to 33% on the economy. so jeff, is the white house, should they be weary of this or are they -- some democrats will say their heads are in the sand because they're not paying attention and there needs to be a reboot here. >> abortion is a motivating factor but it is not going to save the day for president biden and they realize this. one thing we learned this week, if it is on the ballot like you said, thats a good ing this. so there is a good effort to get it on the ballot, in arizona and in florida. more difficult in florida because the republican attorney general has approve the language, but in arizona, that is a very, very real possible. either missouri and other states. that could be a big factor in 2024. we have more than three and three make a trend where this is now the democratic issue for decades, since we've been covering politics, it is a motivating factor for republicans and now it is reversed. so, but overall, does this save president biden? it does not. because the economy is something that is still a huge problem for him. inflation has leveled off but prices remain dramatic will i high. so if you look at his coalition, yes, abortion is a factor, but it is not the driving factor. >> and look, the white house will say, and the supporters of biden will say he needs to talk about his agenda more and he will talk about it when people focus on the results, that is why and then they will reward him. this is what was said this morning by the governor of maryland. >> with you're looking at polls a year out, they're worth the paper they are written on. when you this think about what people are thinking about, the bipt infrastructure act and that is president biden and that will show up in the election for next year. that is what president biden has been able to push on and what he's been able to get done. not rhetoric or hand ringing or fist banging, but real productive results for the people of this country. >> but when you put that question to democrats, okay, fine, you've had these accomplishments, why haven't voters felt that? what is the white house answer to that. >> the president was in belvedere, illinois this week on something of a victory lap where he called stellantis and asked them to reopen the manufacturing plant. he doesn't get a lot of credit for that. belvedere is an area that is fairly republican. and he is out there marching the march on being a president for all americans pitch that he's been making. no he doesn't get a lot of credit for it. republicans don't like him and democrats are luke warm and aren't giving him credit for a lot of things. the campaign said they're keeping their head down and he's out there every single week doing one of these events. maybe eventually it will break through. but they are doing very argentinaed messaging to keep voters, to latino and black voters carefully targeting experiments to figure out what is going to work later. doing a lot of paid advertising already. there is a lot of stuff that is under the radar that is already happening. >> an you look at the polls, we have to break this down in terms polls, how biden has done among some of the key groups in his coalition. black voters and latino and young voters. look at the difference between the exit polls of 2020 and now. he won black voters by 75 points in 2020. and 50 in current polls. just four for among latino voters. 33 points now. 24 points for young voters back in 2020. he's losing according to polls by one, we'll see if that plays out next year. but it is a year away. listen to what pramila jayapal said. she told me last week that the real concern is those voters simply staying home. >> but our biggest swing voter is our base who won't swing to donald trump or a republican, but they will swing right out to the couch if they don't think it is worth their time, nobody has paid attention or their being ignored or taken for granted. they won't vote. and we know what happens when that happens. it is 2016 all over again. >> and she said that biden's handling of the israel hamas war will be part of that. this is the real concern, juicing the base. >> it is voter apathy and that is the big thing for black voters and in the latino community which i have covered for several elections now. it is not necessarily that they're going in droves to the republican party. we do see more house hispanic republicans this cycle. so there is a trend. however, it is mostly these voters saying, well i voted democrat for a long time and i haven't seen that much change in my life, especially on the economy which is still a top issue for these communities. i'm looking at the republicans but i don't like what they're saying. so i don't have a home. i might as well not show up and vote. >> but one other takeaway at the end of the week here is that the donald trump era of the republican party has some real structural problems in the suburbs. which we know. but for all of the talk about hammering among democrats, which there is plenty and it is real and relevant, the trump era party, on the virgerge of elect him again and if you look at ohio, and kentucky, which is why people are frustrated on bother sides which enters a third party. >> and we talk about abortion. it is still a huge issue and significant for a lot of voters, maybe their main issue especially for suburban women in particular, there is a debate within the gop about how to dole with this. some of them say let the state's decide and j.d. vance said there should be a national 15 week abortion ban and one told me last week, don't embrace this 15-week abortion ban. ron desantis was in iowa on friday and he said that really the issue is that the pro-life movement needs to fight this and spend more money to get their initiatives passed. >> these referendum, one, pro-life side has very little money. they get outspent. that was a very radical proposal and ohio, i think, that typically would flot have embraced that, but i think they got pommelled in the campaign. >> but it is about the message or the policy? >> it is not a message problem. when democrats said to me, it a problem-problem. and the problem-problem is that this is an area that democrats have had an advantage for years. if you ask a question about who do you think will do a better job on the issue of abortion, democrats are going to win that fight every time. and the gap is now getting bigger in the post dobbs era. so this isn't going to happen in one election or with one message that is going to suddenly change people's minds. the biggest challenge that the party has internally is that they can't agree and so what it looks like is a party that is saying five or six or seven different things. 16 weeks, 24 weeks and we shouldn't have a national ban and voters if they don't agree, how could i trust that what this person is telling me is actually going to be the law of the land at the end of the day. so it is a trust issue that doesn't get solved with one -- >> and glenn youngkin tried the abortion ban, this could be our compromise and this is the thing that we should put out there and glenn youngkin tried it in virginia. >> and it did not go so well. >> it did not go so well. >> that is a great point. the year after the dobbs decision, still no republican unity on what to do next. coming up, mike johnson's first major test as speaker. a new plan to avoid a government shutdown. but his right flank is not happy. welcome to start of yet another turbulent week on capitol hill. just five days remain for congress to avert a government shutdown. and in this first big test as speaker, mike johnson unveiled a plan yesterday. funding part of the government through mid-january. and other parts through early february. democrats are unhappy that there is no funding for israel or ukraine. and say this approach is a recipe for more chaos. johnson's plan does not include spending cuts. and that is prompting a number of conservative hardliners to come out quickly against it. so that means democratic support will be necessary to get it through the house as soon as tuesday. and house democratic sources tell me this morning, they are uncertain about whether they will bail out republicans and what, if any, concessions to seek. our panel is back. so marianna, you walk around the capitol with me, long hours and putting miles on our feet. what do you make of this interesting decision by mike johnson. as first time he became from being a rank and file member to leading the house and we have to figure out what his governing strategy would be like, would he try to pick a fight of democrats or with his own party and he decided to pick a fight with his right flank. >> yeah. it is very interesting. i don't think any republican is happy with this formula. and johnson has spent the last several weeks listening. so much that republicans were like, please make a decision. >> so this two deadline approach that governing republicans and the appropriators did not want, because we never have done this before but it is what the freedom caucus wants. they did not want a clean cr. which is what democrats wanted. they're appeases but also very upset. it does create this scenario for the house, including with democrats, do they end up passing this. and it does actually make senators question, okay, it is a clean cr, we avoid possibly shutting down the government, it is this weird two-step scenario but they might be able to pass it in the senate. >> and let's not forget, 45 days or so kevin mccarthy had to do the same thing, pass a short-term stop-gap bill and it was in two stages but it was the same thing that what mike johnson is doing right now. the question is will the right flank give him the leeway and push him out of the speakership. we're not hearing the members make the same threats they made against kevin mccarthy. so i put this question to kevin mccarthy. >> no, look, you get a honeymoon. and they can't go through it again. i mean, think about how long it took last time. so do you think they would do that again? >> so even if he goes and relies on democratic votes. you think he that would be safe and not pushed out of the speakership. >> i don't think anyone could make a motion to vacate for the rest of the term. >> what would give you that confidence? >> who are you going to replace him with? >> and that is the big question. we went through 22 days of one person after another and that led to mike johnson. but a short-term spending bill, he'll have to deal with this again in january and in february if this approach becomes law and that is recipe for more in-fighting. >> for sure. the can has been kicked down the road so many times. i think he's right on the honeymoon factor because this is weighing down the party. it is hard to find a republican from other side, from either spectrum who does not think this is been damaging toer the republican party. he said there won't be a motion to vacate until the end of the term. that is only like a year and a month. this is a dynamic process. i guess the senate may go for this but patty murray called it the stupidest idea ever. and the senate and congress has done stupid ideas before. but we'll see. in the last shutdown there was all of this, and now we're underplaying it and assuming they will work something out. what if they don't. >> and the question is what do democrats do? and i'm told they're waiting and trying to see how the republicans deal with this. maybe this republican revolt will end up leading to changes in the plan, that they could take their position then. democrats will meet on tuesday. presumably that is the day they will vote on this. what is interesting is the responses that we're seeing. senate democratic leadership suggested an openness to this and then the white house put out a statement last night saying this proposal is a recipe for more shutdowns and house republicans are wasting precious time with an unserious proposal. but this is does not have the spending cuts of those democrats that said was a red line. so listen to what chris murphy, a democrat from connecticut, a liberal democrat said about this approach. >> we cannot have a government shutdown this weekend. certainly not while we are facing these existential crises for our friends in israel and ukraine. i don't like the cr, but i'm hope to what the house is talking about. the priority has to be keeping the government open. >> look, if this is their only choice, the white house may not like this but they have to accept it. >> if it passes the house, then that is the time to have that conversation. but right now, the white house came out guns blazing. they called this a shutdown proposal or an extreme maga shun proposal to be more accurate. and that does send a signal to the had ill -- to the hill. the white house doesn't want a government shutdown but she see this as changing the process. and also, like, who wants more cliffs. who wants more -- let's set our shutdown clock for january and february. so they're looking at chip roy and other sort of hard line republicans saying we don't like it and they're talking to house democrats and they're talking to senate democrats and talking to sent republicans, they're not talking to house republicans and they're not negotiating with house republicans. they're waiting to see what they actually succeed at. >> and one of things that we talk about this spending mess and how do you fund ukraine and israel. this is not part of the equation. this is all now wrapped up in an immigration fight as well. the senate republicans are insisting on changes to immigration policy and tieing that to ukraine aid. they have not been able to have a policy in decades and how could they get agreement on that and then aid at this critical time. >> when senate republicans talk about pborder security, the ukraine funding may never happen because they've never been able to agree bipartisan on any kind of border security reforms. and if johnson is able to get this through the house and senate accepts it, that is a win. freedom caucus is looking at this as a first strike for johnson. but he is going to face the same questions, the same fundamental decision at end of the day, whether it is on israel, whether it is on ukraine funding on future government funding deadlines. how to do all of that and funding government next year for a full year. he has to decide and it will always come down to him. do i irritate my republican conference or do i do the right thing and do the bipartisan thing and that still costs mccarthy his job. >> that is the question. and will johnson's right flank change. we'll see. next my collusive interview with kevin mccarthy and what he has to say about some of the house republicans he once led. >> how much will the republican party benefit if you were no longer a member of the house in your opinion? >> oh, tremendously. welcome back. now to a cnn exclusive. it is been 40 days since kevin mccarthy was striped of the job he always wanted. speaker of the house. he's still not over it. that much was very clear when i sat down with him on thursday morning in his new office at the capitol. >> tell me what it is been like. you went from being speaker of the house, what has been the adjust been like to being a rank and file member. >> it is different. you're always able to serve and it is different. you're not just rank and file in the process. you know the system it is a little harder. you want to make other decisions. but unfortunately, eight republicans worked with all democrats to disrupt and now we're in a different situation. >> how deutsco you miss it. >> it is not been that long. you could reflect how frustrating it was to go through that. >> i would do the exact same thing again. to keep our government open, to fund our troops. think about those in the mediterranean today, if those troops were worried about could they make their rent payment, their car payment, it was the right thing to do. unfortunately we have never seen in the past that eight republicans would join. i think it is more personal. if the ethics committee never does figure to gaetz, then he was successful in stopping what rightfully should come to him. and but going through the three weeks and taking down steve scalise, jim jordan, tom emmer, all people who are really prepared to do the job, that was frustrating for me. >> those eight members who you referred to as the crazy eight, and the like, after you -- they elected speaker johnson, they krr were crowing about this. what do you think about that? >> well, it just, from a serious point of understanding governing, look, i'm a conservative would loved to govern. i don't believe them to be conser conservatives. it was all based on an ethic complaint in the last congress. he would throw his country away to try to protect himself to come out the truth and for those that don't understand. think of the successes that we have. the commitment to america, to the win the majority. i've been leader for five years, two election cycles we never lost. when the republicans in the senate last both cycles, the governors and the legislators an the president. so we've had a lot of great success. parents bill of rights, the border security bill. you haven't done something like that with republicans since ronald reagan. so we had major successes. this is more about a personality. >> so you've been mentioned surprise, that these folks went along with matt gaetz. who surprised you the most out of those eight? >> the eight, i think the two that were different than the others were tim burgeon and nancy mace. the other haven't voted for me before anyways. they were disruptors the whole time. >> what surprises them? >> they seemed to have changed during a time they care a lot about press, not about policy. so they seemed to just want the press and the personality. >> do you think mace will have a difficult time winning re-election now? >> well not because of this. if you watched her, just her philosophy and the flip-flopping, yeah, i don't believe she wins re-election. >> you don't? >> no. >> will you try to oppose her? >> no, i spent $6 million trying to get her elected and supported her in a primary. just from a basis of watching someone on the job that they do, i don't think she'll probably have earned right to be re-elected. >> you had a good relationship with hakeem jeffries and then the motion to vacate happened. do you still have a good relationship with him. >> he hasn't talked to me since then. the democrats decided to make a political decision. if i go back, nancy pelosi told me even before -- sometime in december before i was elected, having problems getting the votes which they did as well and i told her the issue was bringing back this motion to vacate. and she said just give it to them. we've never allow them. it is not gooder to the house. >> matt gaetz you've been mentioned. how much would the republican party benefit if he were no longer a member in the house. >> oh, tremendous. people have to earn the right to be here and i think just -- he'll admit to you personally, he doesn't have a conservative bend in his philosophy and just the nature of what he focuses on. >> do you think the house gop should consider expelling him. >> that is up to the conference. but i mean, i don't believe the conference would ever heel if there is no consequences for the action. >> does it concern you that speaker johnson doesn't seem to be going in that direction. >> that is a question for speaker johnson. i don't know if they made any deal for the vote. i don't believe so. but i'll let ethics do their work. >> you could dealt with freedom caucuses differently that would have resulted in a different espn if you changes your approach in any way with them. >> and look, you cover this place and you know the personalities better than ever and you watched the 15 roundsch most of the questions you asked, would i survive the next week and so we all knew this would happen. you just didn't think that they would do it based upon such a dumb idea of keeping our troops being paid. it wasn't about policy or anything else than personality and trying to protect one person from the ethics committee. >> you think you'll gain seats next year, but what about what happened on tuesday. do you have concerns on your party's message on abortion and do you need to change your mes message heading into next year. >> it matters, but let's go through that. what happened in long island, republicans are key to the majority to takes those who they want to go after stronger. in virginia, you say republicans lost the state house. well those were new lines they were running in. so they really only lost one seat in the process. if you look at the abortion issue was on the ballot in the last election. why did we pick up seats in california and new york. those are the most liberal states there were. but it is a big issue and republicans have to learn how to deal with it. >> you don't think you had a bad night on tuesday. >> no, we had a bad night. but you learn from it. and a year from now, biden's numbers are worse today than any time. i believe president biden's problem is the biggest problem is something he can't fix, his age. and that is what democrats are talking about right now. that is a really bad place to be. >> let me ask you this. is trump the strongest candidate for your party? >> well, trump is going to be the nominee. okay. and i think -- >> and do you support him? >> yes, i support him. >> do you support him in the primary? >> i haven't endorsed but i support president trump. >> well what is the difference? >> well i haven't made an official endorsem. >> are you worried that his legal problems will make him a bad candidate for your party next year. >> if most candidates you would watch that, but if you -- president trump has been able to find anything in the past. and when you evaluate or you ask americans the question, is it fair that your putting trump in court? overwhelmingly people say no. >> even general election voters. you don't think it will hurt him with the suburban voters aan the like? >> it could hurt. but biden is in a -- and president trump is beating biden and his sitting in court. he hasn't been able to campaign as hard. >> now i spoke with the three house republicans mccarthy single out, matt gaetz, nancy mace and tim birchette. of gaetz said he sends this thought and prayers to the former speaker as he works through hi grief. and she denied she would protect him from a motion to oust him. coming up, if the gop presidential primary all over but the voting. "saturday night live" seems to think so. >> and look at what they got playing meatball ron. one the destroy boys. ron is watching it. i'm like who the hell is that. poor ron desantis. even snl doesn't think he has a chance. if it did, it would be paul rudd. and what about nikki haley. i call her bird brain but only in public. welcome back to "inside politics sunday." this week a political earthquake when joe manchin announced his time would come to a close and sparking questions about his future plans and whether he'll run for president as a third party candidate. if he does, he would join a crowded field takeing on the democratic nominees. jill stein said she would run again on the green party ticket. now polls show that many americans do want another options. just take a listen to these concerns from these arizona voters who all voted for trump in 2016 and biden in 2020. >> to keep it suck sink, trump is a [ bleep ] show right now and biden is old and i'm not sure he could survive another term. >> i don't have faith in trump and i'm losing faith in biden. i think a fresh new face in the white house might be what the country needs. >> we lost our faith in trump definitely. in biden, i like bidden, but hes very fragile. >> amy, you said voters would rather eat a bowl of glass than you go through another biden-trump rematch. >> there is zero appetite. nobody wants this. in fact, my focus group favorite quote was that same group of people who were 2016 trump voters, 2020 biden voters and one man said, you know, i regret voting for biden but ion't regret not voting for trump and that is the group of voters that we're talking about. what do they do when presented with other choices. now all of the other choices that you put out there, they have some of their challenges too, in theory, i think they're appealing to voters who say well their a fresh face and somebody different. but at some point, those voters are also going to get introduced to the positions and the policies of these candidates. i'm curious to see when that begins. an it is hard to poll this question on would you vote for a third party candidate, how serious we should take this. and we know people are frustrated. but this idea that joe manchin would pull from the biden voters and because rfk jr. would pull from the trump crowd. i just think it is complicated an the only person who is guaranteed to get on every ballot is the gereen party candidate because they have an infrastructure from place. >> and she had a serious impact on hillary clinton in 2016. and look at the way the polls have come down. in a two party race, biden trailing trump which tracks other national poll and then you add the question about other candidates, we're not talking about joe manchin, if he decides to run or doing this for attention. but look at the numbers here. robert f. kennedy jr. is 16% and cornell 6% and trump beats biden by 6%. how serious are i taking these third party candidates. >> you're taking them very seriously and the polling there for robert kennedy jr. is interesting because it is his name kennedy. people who were responding to the polls almost certainly don't know enough about him. my guess is they will by the time. but look, a third party threat is very serious. jill stein is not polling nationally, but if you look at michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania, which is what happened in 2016, that is a worry to the bhous. a bit on mansion though. in a theoretical level, if he were able to be on the ballot, he does have a message for the middle that some people would like. the reality check is there is no path really for him unless no labels changes its mind. they said they would have a republican at top of the ticket. joe manchin is not second fiddle, his m.o. here. so they're taking the idea of a third party candidate very serious. but it is an enthusiasm problem that they have a few challenges in solving. >> if you're the biden campaign do you go after some of the third party candidates or just ignore it altogether. >> at the moment they're very quietly having a lot of complaints and publicly not going after them but that speciacould change. they're not in the place of defining the alternatives other than trump who they're happy to talk about ad nauseam. but they're more focused on defining biden and trying to reach the young voters, voters of color, people who might find those third party candidates appealing. and making this personal appeal to the red team, blue team thing that in this era of hyper partisanship, do people, when they have to make a decision, do they go for a third party or do they go back to their teams? because of this hyper partisanship and the messaging about the threat of the other guy. >> and in the meantime, trump is on the campaign trail and his rhetoric has gotten much more sharp and course and some would say extreme. this is what he said in new hampshire just yesterday talking about the left comparing them to vermin. >> in honor of our great veterans on veterans day, we pledge to you, that we will root out the communist, marxist, fascist and the thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat veterans. >> and then he went on to call the left vermin. >> yeah. i mean, and he's also now been talking about and honestly saying if i'm elected, i will weaponize the doj. and when you talk to the white house, when you that you can to the biden campaign, they say there is a lot of focus right now on biden because he is president and we do see that. the moment that trump and we start to talk about him a little bit more, that is at least what they're saying, people will tart to make that difference. and also back to the 2020 campaign, obviously it was very different. biden did not have a record as press. but he did have legitimate democratic candidates that he was runningvery similar to what hearing now they were saying at the time i love elizabeth warren upon i love pete buttigieg, but who can beat trump? and there's still this feeling among democratic voters that we don't love biden. we have questions about his age, but we still think he can beat trump. >> my question is one of the big things that trump said was to move voters. we'll see. guy, great discussion. coming up, more with my exclusive interview with former speaker mccarthy. now that he e lost the s speake gavel, h how much lolonger does planan to stay i in congressss? (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) get exclusive offers on select new volvo models. contact your volvo retailer to learn more. some more news from my interview with former speaker kevin mccarthy. we talked about congress and while he said he will finish out his current term, what comes after that? to be determined. >> i have the holidays and i'll talk to my family about the ideas going forward and then i'll make a decision. >> make a decision whether to stay in congress? >> i want to make sure speaker johnson was able to come into office. i wanted to make sure he had the resources and the need, whatever help i can provide. i want to make sure that i continue to do the job for my district, but i also want to make sure that you can -- i always believe, and you hear me all of the time. you never give up in the process, right? there are so many ways you can do that to make sure you're getting the job done and i'll look at all options. >> which way are you leaning? >> i don't know. >> that's it for "inside politics sunday." thanks for s sharing your momor wiwith us. happy diwalili..