This is gps, the Global Public square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and around the world. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you live from new york. Today on the program, a week and a day after hamas terror attack, israel continues to strike gaza and rockets continue to hit israel. As the world watches for a Ground Invasion to begin. Lets get the latest live from israel and then we will talk to Richard Haass about the Global Politics at play, the influence of american, saudi arabia and iran and others in this conflict. Then, historian Rasheed Halle will join me to talk about the rest of the arab world. Also just how did israels much lauded intelligence apparatus miss the signs of an imminent enormous hamas attack. I will talk to the israel why i investigator ronen burgman. Finally how the Islamist Group was able to pull off last weeks attacks. Well explore with an expert. But first here is my take. Hamass brutal and inhuman attack on israel took the world by surprise. Most importantly and tragically, it took the Israeli Government by surprise which meant a delayed response to the slaughter of its civilians. But this was no black swan event. Instead, as the scholar amy zegart noted, this is the fifth war between israel and hamas over the last 15 years. Israeli controls air, land and sea access to the strip. Israeli intelligence is supposed to have an Extensive Network of informants in gaza. So what happened . Well need time to reach a full assessment, but it does appear that the netanyahu government was so focused on judicial overhaul at home and a saudi deal abroad, that it ignored the possibility of an upheaval in gaza. Despite allegedly receiving warnings from egypt. Professor dmitri writes that for years netanyahu developed and advanced a destructive warped political doctrine that held that strengthening hamas at the extent of the Palestinian Authority would be good for israel. This divided the palestinians and undermined the west bank and made it easy for netanyahu to claim there was no path to a Palestinian State. He cited a report that at a Party Meeting in 2019, netanyahu made clear that he supported the money that the qatari government was sending to hamas. That way bibi is vort rt recorded shove said tyler references the name meeting and notes most of the time israel why i policy was to treat the Palestinian Authority as a burden and hamas as an asset. Like israels current financial once asserted. They were pursuing i a policy premised on the notion that this he could ignore the palestinians and make a deal with the gulf arabs who are worried about the rise in the region and eager to team up with the Booming Technology driven economy. The resumptions exploded last week. But there is a broader back drop for last weeks terror attack. For last two decades the middle east has been shaped by washingtons actions. Above all by the iraq war and the subsequent withdrawal of american power. The war upset the delicate balance between iran and the arabs and the shiites and the sunnis. When the u. S. Toppled saddam hussein, they gained influence in rock which is majority shia. Then began the american retreat from the middle east which left a vacuum in the region, for iran, turkey, saudi arabia, and russia and israel, even trying to promote ints own interests. We think of the world having been stable for last two decades until russias 222 invasion of ukraine. But that is not true of the middle east, where the last two decades have been bloody. Hundreds of thousands died if iraq. Then same the Syrian Civil War which displaced more than 14 Million People. And killed still more Hundreds Of Thousands. That was followed by a war in yemen, which quickly became the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. And in all of these crises and conflicts, regional players have picked sized trying to maximize mir advantages and bleed their foes. Were seeing order and disorder. Russia and iran and hezbollah and hamas are trying to erode the international system. If hamas succeeds it will encourage other, hezbollah and the houthis to flex their muscle as well. Defeating hamas is a daunting challenge. That Terrorist Group is hoping for a massive israeli overreaction that produces thousands of civilian casuals and bogged down israeli troops. Hamas is hoping for the collapse of any possible deal with saudi arabia. The more brutal israels response, the more likely it is that that deal will collapse. Israels goal should be to respond to hamas, deal with the palestinian issue in the way that still is lous for the resumption of negotiations on saudi normalization. That is the strategic prize. The establishment of normal relations between israel and saudi arabia would be the severest setback for hamas and hezbollah and iran. One lesson is clear. The United States cannot walk away from the middle east entirely. It could have military interventions and recognize the centrality of asia but it needs to remain active in the region. American engagement is a stabilizing force in the world. For those unconvinced, look at the Emerging Post American middle east. Go to cnn. Com fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week. And lets get started. The Palestinian Ministry of health said early sunday, that 300 people have been killed and another 800 injured in gaza over the previous 24 hours. The majority of them women and children. This brings the death toll there to nearly 2,400, while around 1,300 have parished in israel thus far. Israel has ordered 1. 1 million residents of Northern Gaza to leave and it said it struck more than 100 military targets overnight into gaza. The idea that israel was fired on by Lebanon Today and hamas claims to have fired at a israeli city. Joining me now from tel aviv where air rides recently sounded is correspondent sara sidner. Tell me, youve talked to a number of people. What is the goal, as they describe it, of what appears to be an imminent Ground Invasion . Reporter the goal, they say, is very simple according to the israeli military. And the goal is to rid gaza of hamas forever. That is the ultimate goal. What they will not say, and have not said, is what that means and how that is going to happen exactly. We have seen the air strikes, of course. Where they say they have been trying to target hamas areas of hamas, to knock out their capabilities. But they wont say what happens in a ground incursion, which they say just yesterday, said, look, we are prepared for the next stages of war. There is only one left. Because theyve been hitting gaza from the sky and hitting hamas from the sky. That is on the ground where there have been about 300,000 troops, israeli troops that have amassed there. And so you look at scenario, if they go inond the ground and it seems to be imminent that they will, what happens once they are there and if they are able, which theyve been trying to for many, many, many years, rid gaza of hamas, what happens . Do they stay . Do they try to govern . It is a very, very, very complicated scenario as this war rages on now. Fareed. Sara sidner. Thank you. Your reporting from there has been terrific and i thought your conversations with the Idf Spokesperson were very illuminating. Thank you. Stay safe. Next on gps, ill dig into the strategy, the diplomacy and likely next moves with Richard Haass from the counsel on foreign relations. Secretary of state blinken is engaging in Shuttle Diplomacy in middle east and he joined qatar and the uae and egypt and going back to israel tomorrow. He said that among his goals, are preventing the conflict from spreading, getting humanitarian aid to gauze saw and securing the release of hostages. Meanwhile, the uss gerald ford sits in the Eastern Mediterranean with its strike group and another Carrier Strike group is on its way. I want to bring if Richard Haass to talk about the military might, diplomacy and much more. Hes a former Top State Department official. Richard, welcome. I want to pose to you a question about this moment the mood and the and the actions that follow. Because it feels to me like in some ways this is like israels 9 11 in the sense of the deep sense of outrage and emotional kind of rage that is felt in israel. Totally justifiably, given the nature and the brutality of this terrorist attack. I remember americans felt somewhat similarly after 9 11. And you were one of the few people in government at the time saying we need to think this through. We need our responses to be calibrated and think about the day after. You cautioned, i think youre the only senior official to caution against invading iraq. So im wondering, do you think this is a moment where a similar logic applies or is there a case where the israelis did just need to demonstrate that this kind of thing cannot be rewarded. There are interesting parallels, fareed. If anything, the israeli reaction is Even Stronger than the american reaction. And in part because of images of the holocaust. And what jews have experienced throughout their history. But your point, i think, is spot on. Ultimately youve got to be smart. Youve got to make Foreign Policy with your head as much as with your heart. So i would say, yes, the israelis must respond and show that terrorism cannot stand, it could not go unanswered. But i would say go and target it and go indiscrete, after hamas and not the people of gaza. Also the israelis need to focus on rebuilding their defenses outside of gaza, in western israel. This could have succeeded says they are focusing on the wrong areas. But your larger point is right, they should not get too ambitious and remake gaza. They have to think there through. Even if they were to succeed militarily, and i dont think they can if the definition is to room out hamas. Then they have to think what is the Political Authority to fill the vacuum. There isnt one. That is why this entire approach is understandable but i fear it will be regrettable. You know, one of Donald Rumsfeld famous snowflake memos, sorry to bring up the old history, but he said the crucial question we have to ask ourselves is are we producing more terrorists that were killing with our actions and i have to say you look at some of the images in gaza and again totally justifiable, understandable how outrages israelis are, but the question is what is the effect on the ground among palestinians. And you have 2. 2 million in gaza. No, youre exactly right. I also worry about some other effects. Israel has the high ground right now. It has virtually unconditional american and international backing. We know that wone last. Calls for a ceasefire will grow louder by the day. I also think that if israel does a large operation in gaza, it increases the odds of war widening. I fear it will be difficult for groups like hezbollah to sit still and feel the need to somehow get into the act lest they look weak and it is not in the american or israeli interest for this war to widen. So another awkward thing here for fareed, i think the biden administration, which has been so supportive of israel and in public, the president s speech i thought was his best speech, in private they have to speak as only friends can speak to one another and be extraordinarily direct about what in our view is wise but also not wise for israel to do. Let me ask you, let me take the other side of the position youre advocating, tom freedman had a column that said, the israeli goal and this is based on israeli sources, is to deliver such a punishing response to hamas that it feels it can never do this again and the argument is that that is what israel did with hezbollah and hezbollah has been quiet since the devastating, i cant remember how many days of bombings. What do you make of that argument . Look, it is possible, but think it misunderstands the nature of hamas. This is their identity. This is their dna and my view is in some ways even if the short run, theyre degraded, which they ought to be, i fear in the long run it reinforces their argument that theyre the only game in town when it comes to promoting palestinian interest, however misguided it might be. If israel, though, i would say this, if israel is going to do something very hard and large against hamas, then it needs a political track. It needs a complementary policy. It is not enough just to defeat the terrorists, there is something missing from israeli policy for more than a decade which is a serious effort to deal with the larger palestinian issue. You cant beat back terrorism. You have to show there is fln Alternative Path that has a chance of succeeding. What about the issue of saudi n normalization and ive been struck by mbs, the crown prince, made some strong statements in support of the palestinian, which i have never heard him make before. Maybe im wrong. But it was striking to me. He had a phone call with the iranians, if you are trying to get those two countries together, which seemed impossible, is normalization completely off the table . I also want you to expand that to i was struck by fact that nobody has talked about any of the countries that did recognize israel, the uae, bahrain, and so it does seem like the gulf areas are keeping their eye on the prize, they want to have normal relations with israel. 100 . But with the saudi policy, both the Public Statement which was quite supportive of the palestinian, didnt express anything about israel, the call with iran, i think that shows that even the crown prince of saudi arabia is worried about getting too far forward in his skis here and getting out of sync with his own population and that ought to be a warning sign. For the last few years almost all middle east diplomacy has been from the top down and from the government ignoring the palestinian issue and were seeing the limits of that approach, that sooner or later the saudis and others will be held back plause of palestinian still hold influence over arab populations and you raise a larger question, could there be there some stalling or reversing of those countries that have entered into relations with israel. Weve seen pauses in normalization. But if it spread, i dont think what has been accomplished so far is irreversible. Richard haass, always a pleasure to listen to you, learn from you. Thank you. Next on gps, how is the arab world reacting to the events in israel and gaza . What is the likely reaction if there were an israeli Ground Invasion. Im speak with Rasheed Khalidi in a moment. The power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. And thats a good thing . Great in my book who are you . No power . No problem. Introducing stormready wifi. Now you can stay reliably connected through Power Outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery backup to keep you online. Only from xfinity. Home of the xfinity 10g network. Protesters took to the streets throughout the arab world this week to stand in solidarity with palestinian. Ive asked Rashid Khalidy to understand the reactions to this escalating war in the middle east. Hes a professor of modern era studies the Columbia University woulds book is the 100 years war on past lestine. He is Palestinian American and has family in the gaza strip. R rashid, welcome. And before we get to gaza and the west bank, i want to ask you something that a lot of people in america has wondered about. Which is, why is there not stronger palestinian outrage about the the hamas terror attack, the brutality of that attack, the way in which it really seemed to be utterly indiscriminate, women, children, there was a hope that if palestinian were looking for a different path, they would at least this could be one thing they could condemn. How would you respond . I think the utter hypocrisy of the west in ignoring indiscriminate Killing Offinin italy numbers of palestinian, 4,000 of them mostly civilians killed by aerial bombardment. From israel. Has desensitized people. They feel there is a complete lack of attention to arab humanity. So far 2,300 palestinians have been killed, most of them civilians and they see very little that the moral condemnation that the hundreds of israeli civilians have provoked. So i think the reaction is partly a reaction to that. And partly a reaction to that no politics horizon has been offered to the palestinian for decades. They were told you will be subjugated and second class citizens if that, you will be dispossessed and well take your land as will and the United States has supported but financed and armed that process. So people in the earab world, ae willing to turn to hamas. Willing to turn to acts that that in normal times people would consider horrific. But they see the horrific toll that has been inflicted on gaza by siege, 16, 17 years. By periodic bombardments, Killing Hundreds and hundreds of innocent civilians. And i think they say, well, where is the the humanitarian humanity. And what about the killing of civilians in gaza and elsewhere in the occupied territories. But truly the right response, rashid, would be to condemn the killing of civilians in israel and in gaza. Not to be indifferent to both . I dont think people are indifferent to both. I dont think that is the issue. I think that they feel that these demands for condemnation of the horrific Terrorist Massacres about whoever it may be, hamas in this case, are never matched by demands of israeli spokesperson, of israeli politicians, of israeli academics for condemnation of the horrific Terrorist Massacre in this case of 720 something children. In the last six days in the gaza strip. If this is horrific and terrorist, that is horrific and terrorist. I hate i abhor the idea of killing of civilians but their civilians, children are children. Jewish children arent more important than abar children and jewish are not more important. That is the way the west is treating this. Unfortunately. And the hypocrisy, undermines the whole this whole argument. Let me ask you about the question of the about the question of the political option. I want your take. It is all true, not the netanyahu government, i will grant you, but two prior governments, the ommer government and berra, did try to have a offer of a Palestinian State and the palestinians walked away. Abass, from what we tell, never responded and and arafat launched an interfatah. So it is not netanyahu, but were not met by palestinian in a productive way . I cant, in the two minutes that were going to have, i cant go into the details. But none of the israeli proposals, nor from rabbin, nor from barack, involves complete palestinian sovereignty or independence and the end to occupation. None of them involved an end to settlements. You cant have a Palestinian State with Hundreds Of Thousands of israelis settled there. You cant have a Palestinian State if you dont control your borders. But what was on offer was never near the minimum that is required for a justice, equitable two state solution. That was never offered. However, far they went. I would go into detail if you want. But i think that is the problem. And the last thing ill say iss these things were quite a while ago. Weve been 10 or 15 years without anything of this sort being offered by anybody. I want you to ask about your family in gaza and what you are hearing on the west bank . Well, um, i have more family, obviously, in the west bank than in gaza. These are inlaws who are in gaza. They seem so far to be safe. Some of them had to move. In the west bank, the situation is quite terrifying. 16 people were killed yesterday. By a couple of hundred people have been killed by the west bank in the last week. Settlers are roaming unchecked, the armed settlers and people are very afraid. Give me were Running Out Of Time but i do want your take on this issue of a wider war. Do you see do you worry about that . Is that a prospect . I think were seeing Ethnic Cleansing in gaza. A Million People have been displaced already. Israeli strategists in generals have talked about Emptying Gaza and moving a large part of the population of gaza. If that happens, heaven for bid and if the Casualty Rate continue continues to climb, there is an expansion of this war perhaps not just lebanon but wilder. And they should think about the last time this happened in 1948. It produced arabisraeli wars that went on from 48 until this day. And people should be aware that if you move that number of palestinian, the rage and anger in the arab world will not abate. Arab governments that are undemocratic but people in the street will not. And weve seen that all over the arab world. Even in egypt. So, i think we should be very careful what were allowed to see on american tv screens is the no the full picture of what is going on in gaza because israel has kept reporters out. The death toll keeps going up and the expulsion of people, if it is made permanent, means were going back to a 1948 type of scenario and that is terrifying. That created this conflict in a certain respect. And i shutter to think of what might come if that happens r perspective. Next on gps, intelligence gathering is among the world best. So how did the country not see the horrific hamas attack coming. Were hear from Ronen Bergman who will have some answers when we come back. Israel has one of the most so sophisticated spy networks in the world. All to protect itself from what can be a hostile neighborhood. But last saturday, israel was blindsided. Joining us to understand what went wrong is Ronen Bergman, one of israels leading investigative reporters, and a staff writer for the New York Times and covered the Intelligence Agency for decades. His most recent book is rise and kill first, the secret history of israels targeted assassinations. Welcome, ronin. You are the man to ask this. What happened . How did israel not anticipate this attack . So, you know, fareed, it happened exactly 50 years and a day after the previous, what was considered and until last saturday, the biggest blunder in the history of Israeli Intelligence, a Surprise Attack on the 6th October Of 1973 of egyptian and syrian army. The result is amazingly frighteningly the same, a surprise strategic attack that is israel knew nothing about and caused israel unbelievable damage. But it is different. 1973, there was a lot of information, much intelligence from all kinds of intelligence. They saw the Egyptian Army and the syrian army, but they interpreted the intelligence differently. This case, there was nothing. Until the last night where there some kind of a scarce alert, israel was either not monitoring the right channels, not recruiting the right agents, or maybe it was hamas who learned from previous experience, who learned from masters in tehran, the force of the revolutionary guard and was able either to create the parallel channel, or maybe even understanding which channel under the surveillance of Israeli Intelligence and feed those with false information, with information that made israel believe that hamas relatively, to hamas, is under one of those moderate relatively moderate, if hamas doesnt, and they say hes deterred. Just five days before the ak that, the National Security said hamas is deterred. He knows what would happen to it, in another case of defiance. Well he didnt know that. So no intelligence. No ability to understand that were talking about massive operation, 2,000 perpetrators crossed the fence that day. So, there are 3,000, at least, people involved. They must create intelligence noise and none of them was picked up by Israeli Intelligence. You pointed out in a very interesting article in the times that hamas seems to have known more about israel than most people realized. That they had maps, for example, and a photograph of a hamas operative terrorist looking at a map which is clearly fairly detailed. They knew about the kind of weaponry. Tell me, there is the picture were showing of that map. Tell me, what do you think this first of all, you know, how did they get that and what does that suggest about Ground Operations . In other words, if hamas has planned this carefully for the attack, could we major assume that they will have prepared for what they assume would have been a likely israeli invasion . Um, well start first with this kind of leakage, Massive Leakage from israel to hamas. The ability of hamos to understand what are the vulnerable points on the fence. How to cripple the cameras and the automatic machine guns. What sort what base it should attack to create this kind of blind spot, this fog that didnt allow the commanders, the ones that were not killed, to understand that massive troops are just crossing the fence. But from the story that patrick kingsley, from jerusalem and i p published, these are coming from a gopro that counterterrorism took from the head of a hamas team leader shortly after he was killed. Now what it shows, it is a group of hamas perpetrators. Ten them on five motorcycles going theyre not stopping in the way they have they have a specific goal which is a secret Intelligence Hub not identified on maps. They go there. They dont go to the main gate. They know to go to the side, to a side gate that is not meant, exploding that, going into the base, looking for the bunker, the secret bunker and when they dont find it, the commander tells one of his soldiers, give me the map and hes holding a map of that base. Now this is this could be a map based on satellites. But the identification, where is the secret bunker. How to get there. And we have this from all other groups designated groups that crossed the fence, the broken fence in 40 different places that day. Hundreds of different groups, each allocated to a different place, with a clear map of the area and understanding of the enemy and the challenges. After that, israel would need to have a very Serious Investigation on why israel was not able to understand hamas secrets, while hamas knew quite a lot about israeli secrets. And used those horrifying, horrifying videos, those videos are not coincident on the network. You see when they raided that base. Ronen, we have a minute. I want to ask you about who is being blamed here . Because i was struck by a Jerusalem Post poll, i dont know how accurate it is and i make that caveat. But four out of five israelis said that they held Bibi Netanyahu responsible for the failure and they seem to have a real sense that the netanyahu government was too focused on, you know, judicial overhaul, too focused on west bank expansion. They took their eye off of gaza. Do you think there is something to that . More than something. And it was published so people could see that. Now the Intelligence Community did not bring precise alert. But for months, some of it published, the leaders of israeli came to netanyahu, showed him top classified intelligence, saying this is how israeli enemies sees the political crisis. They believe that israel is weak. They believe that this is the time to strike. Mr. Prime minister, they told him, you must stop this socalled Legal Rear Form or judicial overhaul, because if you continue, they will use this opportunity to strike us. Netanyahu did not listen, in many of the cases, even refused to see the leaders of the intelligence and the military. He continued, to the advice he continued this legal reform, he continued to polarize the country, in a way that was perceived by nas ralla, the Secretary General of hezbollah, here is our enemy in its weakest spoint. If we want to strike, the axis of resittance, this is the time. I we have to go, ronnen, as always, it is so informative to talk to you. Keep up this amazing reporting youre doing. You give us stuff nobody else does. Thank you. Next on gps, what you need to know about hamas. How did it get so strong, when we come back. Just what is hamas . What does it believe . How was it able to mount last weekends Massive Attack . Joining me now is the reuters journalist stephen farrell, hes the coauthor of the book, hamas, the Islamic Resistance movement. Welcome. Take us to 1987, i think is when hamas was founded when the palestinian liberation authority, is the plo, headed by arafat, is seen as the voice of Palestinian Resistance and the main Political Movement and it had an armed wing and did terrorism. Why did hamas, why was it founded and what was the what was the goal . Hamas was founded in 1987 in the opening days of the first palestinian uprising. It is an off shoot of the muslim brother hood and the aim was clear. First, they wanted all of palestine, from the river to the sea. They want part of it, like the plo was likely to settle for. They wanted it all of it and a sc islamic siociety. So they were a armed group, as they put it resisting Military Occupation and as israelis put it as a Terrorist Group and the goal is to take all of the land to islam their own society and to marginalize and then supplant arafat as the leader of the palestinian people. And why do they have a appeal on that front. Was why did palestinian turn away from arafat . Yasser arafat, by no means figuring that israel has any great love for was always deeply suspicious of, but his plo, had in the 1990s, for many Different Reasons decided that they would sit down and talk. That they would negotiate with israel. They were they agreed that the Oslo Peace Accords in the 1990s, they were at the table and hamas did not want that. It did not want to take some of the land. It did not want to see a more secular, more moderate Palestinian Authority, Liberation Organization prepared to share the land. Hamas wanted all of it. They are the hardliners of hardliners. So they set about, laying down the roots, establishing their network in the 70s and 80s, through Soup Kitchens and social work and a political wing and a religious wing through the mosques, laying down the roots and then in the 1990s effect ily they bombed the Oslo Peace Accords into oblivion, blowing up buses and assassinated their own prime minister. So it wasnt like there was one hardline group trying to derail the peace. There are people on both sides who want all or nothing. So the 90s, it bombed the Peace Process in oblivion and then in the 2000s it escalated to the point where abass became more and more marginalized, nothing to show for negotiations or peace talks. If you talk to the plastin leadership over many years, theyll say it is an incredibly difficult job we have here. We have nothing to show the Younger Generation for years of peace talks and no Palestinian Statehood and no freedom, under israeli occupation. Let me ask you about a charge that is often made which is that in its early years, the Israeli Government actually helped in some ways hamas to flourish, is that true . We looked into this when writing the book and i think it is and israeli officials told us it is fair to say, i think they regarded the early islamics as the enemies enemy, undermining arafat so they turned a blind eye. We certainly didnt establish that they armed them but certainly israeli official told us we warned them, we warned our leaders, do not let these people rise in gaza. Weve seen what happened in iran. But the word came down, arafat is the threat. We dont trust arafat. And our enemies enemy. Divide and rule. In 30 seconds, i but i want to ask you do you believe that a majority of the people in gaza support hamas . There is a lot of complicated polling here but i just wanted you to give us a bottom line, how would you describe Popular Support for hamas . It is impossible to say. There have been no elections since 2006. Anyone who trusted an opinion poll run by one side or the other, good luck. I dont have a crystal ball. But i can say hamas was under a lot of criticism for the government. I think what its done is calculated that by this shock, and awful terrible scenes, at the end of the day, people may blame israel for what has happened and that they may end up benefiting out of this and that is going to be played out in the coming weeks and months. We have to leave it at that. Stephen farrell, well have to have you back. So much more to talk about. Thank you all for being part of my program this week. I will see you next week. Is it possible my network could take my business to the next level . It is with comcast business. Powering all your devices with gigspeed wifi. And you get fast downloads and uploads. Pick it up pick it up oh we got this because its powered by The Next Generation 10g network. More speed for your business . Its not just possible. Its happening. Get started for 59. 99 a month for 12 months. Plus, ask how to get an 800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. Comcast business, powering possibilities