The winner, the loser, and the impact, straight ahead. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight tim see your, courtney garcia, dan nathan and guy adami. The dow dropping nearly 400 points, the nasdaq down a percent. Rates are back on the rise. The yield on the tenyear treasury touching 4. 4 for the First Time Since last november. Were going to get to that in a minute. But butfirst, we turn to tesla. They reported q1 deliveries that fell far short. The Company Getting fewer than 390,000 cars to customers, its first year over year delivery decline since the height of the pandemic and the biggest miss in five years. The report promming uber tesla bull dan ives to call it an unmitigated disaster that is hard to explain away. He has a 300 price target, still, a level that it hasnt seen since september 2022. Is this the straw that finally breaks the tesla bulls backs. Are we at an Inflection Point . Guy, what do you think . Huge lef ivel in the stock. Yes is the answer to your question. You have to believe trough margins, thats a bit of a pipe dream. I thought margins were a story. That last, i think three quarters ago, they said, thats it in terms of margin, were going to start to reaccelerate. The stock went from 185, that was a move up to almost 300 bucks from the 185 level. Were right back there now. Critical level. This is where we took off from last april. Traded a decent amount of volume, but you have to wait until the earnings release, i think on the 23rd. If margins are disappointing, on the back of what you heard today, that level that we saw, that low that we put in at 113 low, thats in the cards, i think. I think its going to have to deliver on more than just margins at this point. They are also probably going to give the full year guidance and have to rachet that down. Nobody expects them to hit that number at this point. Seems like theres not going to be a lot of great news until we have some kind of a pickup in models. And the questions are coming off of the first down delivery quarter since, i think, Second Quarter of 2020, is, whats causing it . Is it selfinflicted, is it demand, is it macro . Have all the early adopters gone byebye . I dont think this is, you know, i dont think this is chinese competitors in the u. S. Market, for sure, i think this is certainly china has been weak for them, i do think its margins, i do think that incentives so far in march show theyre not even helping here. So, you know, ultimately, it gets back to, if you are an investor, oom not sure look, you doubt have to wait for good news and catalyst to go buy a stock, in many cases, they bottom in advance of that. Is that whats going on here . The good news has to be three, four quarters out. I just think that, you know, the Silver Lining is, again, they finished they are now ahead of byd in terms of the bev deliveries, at least on a global basis, but thats just because thats a very volatile series for the chinese. We knew from the company itself that it was going to be between two waves of growth, right . And so here we are in this sort of trough, and so, how do we navigate this trough, how bad does it get during this volatile period until the promised second wave of growth that we should see, according to the company . Think its going to come down to where its coming from. What tesla came out and say, issues with some factories, maybe on the production side. My question is, how much thats on the the demand side. They are definitely getting competition. China has been an issue for them. They lost the ev tax credits, it went away for their model threes. You have a lot less demand now that the tax credit is gone. Well have to see, is that a onetime blip, or is there a lot less demand . And people are going towards hybrids, less towards full electric vehicle. We dont have the demand picture, but we need to see that. Thats the missi ing piece, demand. This is not going to be popular, but it looks like the most genius ceo of the face of the planet has miscalculated in so many different ways. None more punctuated this gamut with the cyber truck. Lets make 300 a week, lets get all the bros excited about this thing, all the stuff it can do, and what did they do . They just dropped the ball on a low end ev that is kicking their butt in china right now, by a lot of local competition. A lot of local competition that nobody wanted to acknowledge for years and years. And we spend a lot of time talking about, well, detroit is going to come for them, korean, and the germans, that didnt matter. Half the output comes from giga shanghai. The cars they dont sell there, they ship to europe. Theres a lot of competition all over the place, but most importantly, in china. And you think about this, the other thing that the Company Really miscalculated on this whole idea of price elasticity, right . As soon as they started cutting the prices, it just kept on pushing demand further and further. And the thing i said last night and probably said it 50 times over the last year or so, this company hasnt even seen a really bad economy in the u. S. Since covid. The last time that they had year over year delivery declines. So, to me, i just think its kind of interesting. I think at some point, this stock is likely on its way, i dont think its a great press on the short side. People that watch this show, they dont do puts, but its probably going to 100. Its probably back to that level that it got to, i think it was january, you know, that period of 2022 when it kind of fell off a cliff from 200 or whatever. Look at that chart. This is one of the worstlooking stock charts ive seen in my life. And i mean that. This is a trillion Dollar Market Cap Company at the end of 2021. So, i just think that its not a great story, the sentiments really bad, it doesnt make for a great press on the short side, but by the same token, to tims point, the fundamentals are not likely to get better for a couple quarters here. And the Analyst Community has to follow through. Theres going to be a slew of downgrades here, which arent going to help after earnings, probably. Yeah. And i think even there reason some folks that are going to make numbers changed based upon this. I also think that if you look at the broader market, investing environment where there has been a lot of momentum, theres been a lot of, lets call it sp speculative activity, the fact that tesla is not participating at all i think is right. The cult nature of this stock, you havent seen an unwind of that. Those are the people that have been holding in. This was an expensive stock that is getting more expensive by the day, and the question is, is this really a growth stock . Its clearly not right now. In terms of the miscalculations, i agree with you in terms of the price elas elasticity. What are consumers going to do . But in terms of the turn in demand for evs, i dont know if anybody could have anticipated such a quick and dramatic turn. If anybody should have, i should have been the company that pioneered the ev revolution. I mean, like, lets just be clear, hes been whining about Interest Rates, the economy. When i see hey, this company was ground zero for a. I. What do you think full selfdriving is . Its a. I. Every automaker, though, that had an ev offering miscalculated demand on evs. They all had to rachet back their ev plan. And look what happened to gm and ford as soon as they did that. I think were getting at an important question. Do we think evs, that demand is shot . That the trend is, at least, we know people are going to continue to buy. We know the internal Combustion Engine at some point goes the way of the dinosaur, though it does seem like its going to take some time, but that seems to be the question were having here. If youre talking about ev, they are still out in front by a lot. And im not shhere to defend tesla. Ive not liked this stock for a long, long time, and i like it less now, but i think if we are questioning evs, theres probably a lot of people that could get up here and debate this, and i dont think you can say that demand for ev, as, you know, versus a hybrid, and obviously versus an internal combustion, you cant tell me that ev demand has peaked. It hasnt. No, i dont think anybodys saying that here, at least, but i think that is the debate, right . But its not just about evs. Im sorry, ill let you guys in. The stock still has a half a trillion dollar market cap. And thats not because of evs, okay . Its because of this belief about full selfdriving. About this whole thing. Thats what its about. And so, until they can demonstrate something on that front, i justdont know how the stock recovers. That being said, when they report, and if they kitchen sink it, the whole year, that talk about the waves, they have to get to that mass market 25,000, thats the thing thats robotaxis, they can sell all over the world and get the margins at a level that works. Thats the story. Thats going to take quarters, all right . So, right here, right now, when the stock breaks, it goes its going to go back to 100. And you just start buying it. Then you have the opportunity between there and 100 bucks to get 100 move when they finally get their stuff together. So, to me, theres going to be an opportunity really soon. Its just not there yet. The thing about Interest Rates notwithstanding which elon musk mentioned, butt the environment they find themselves in, unemployments historic lows still, people have jobs, people are clearly spending money, and gasoline, very quietly, has been going higher in a pretty meaningful way, which theoretically should lend itself to demand for these cars. Its not happening. So, thats the environment that it should be happening in, its not. What happens if that switches, if the switch gifts flipped in terms of unemployment . So, if unemployment rates start to go meaningfully higher, which i happen to believe it will, thats just one more headwind for this story. The road ahead may look rocky for tesla, but our next guest sees todays news as a test of investor patient. Gene munster is with us now. You are among those legions of investors whose patience will be tested. So, what are you waiting for . Indeed. Melissa, first, i am bracing, as someone who has been supportive of what teslas doing and optimistic about where this company can go, i was just stunned today. I think that this caught me offguard, i was expecting it basically to be flat, deliveries are down 9 . The first order of business is how bad is it going to get . The panel has done a great job of articulating theres going to be more negativity, i just want to put that into context. Going into today, the street was looking for 15 delivery growth in 2024. If you look at the numbers that just reported and assume they can grow deliveries 10 sequentially for the rest of the year, deliveries will be down 3 for the year, so, this is probably more ugly than it seems, even today, and given that change and look what happened in the stock, i dont think thats fully priced in, so, dan, youve been clear about that 100, i dont think were going to see 100, but i do believe that the stock is going to go lower, because this is going to be kind of the kitchen sink. You are going to see analysts i had that job for a long time throw in the towel and say this is going to be over for a long time, so, i want to point that start there. Second is, the bigger picture. And i think tim, you were talking about just, you know, this ev and the ev picture. Just to frame that, thats a 2. 5 trillion market, the auto market on a yearly basis, eventually, its going toe go. I think its going to come faster, though this is such an ugly day on the delivery numbers. And the reason i believe one of the biggest factors in this horrible number was that there was so much excitement around evs, people who buy a car every five years probably moved it forward, bought it three years, pulled a lot of demand in. I think eventually that just starts im guilty of being too optimistic, but i think they get to the other side. And dan, you talked about fsd, i agree that is an important piece here. If anybodys tried fsd, the beta they just put out last week, it is a step function better than what theyve ever done, so i think that is going to come probably in the next year or go two, and i believe thats going to be another catalyst, so, thats where im at. What can they tell us, if anything, in the next quarter or two, that can sort of i dont want to say solve certain issues, but if they come out with a lower cost model, does that solve for some of the weakness that they will see in china and address that next wave of growth that investors are looking for . Is there sort of a couple of things they can do that can make the story a little bit better . So, youve got two camps. Youve got the people who believe, and the reason why the stock is not down more today, because that camp still exists. The reason why it still has the market cap it does, because that camp still exists. Theyre not going to be inmrups influenced by another couple of punky quarters. The people that are skeptical, theres nothing that teslas going to say, when they report their quarter on the 23rd, thats going to get those people more optimistic. But as an investor, i think you need to fast forward to im already thinking about mid2025, at that point, were going to have some really easy comps. This is down 9 , march of 2025 is were going to start to get easier comps. I think that gets reflected in the stock mid to late this year. Thats kind of the time frame. Its going to be rocky. I dont think theres much they can say, melissa. Wow. Gene, thank you. Thank you. We should be clear, gene owns it personally, deepwater does not. Mid2025, thats a long time to wait. A lot can happen, i mean, overlay whats going to happen with rates, we dont know, with the economy and unemployment youre right. The market will get ahead of that, theyll sniff it out. Maybe mid 25 early 25 story in terms of the turn, but the market will sniff that out long before. Its a question of, again, i think dan said it, youre not pressing shorts here. I would say you probably are looking for an entry level at some point. And gene just said who has been as much of a bull as out there, he thinks the stock goes lower, so, have your sort of levels in mind and then swoop in when it gets there. Of course, the problem is, when it gets there, its going to look scare rip as can be. Thats when you have to close your eyes and stick to your guns. Lets turn now to the markets. Dow weighed down by oil prices and rising yields. The tenyear treasury marches to its highest level in months. I feel like weve had this discussion many times about higher rates, sticky inflaktinf now, the markets are saying, look at this. Higher rates have been something that i think the market has digested at different times with different sense of velocity since july 2020. I think rates havebeen going higher for four years or 3 1 2 years, and i think theyre going to continue to trickle higher. A lot of interesting, at least conversation being had on the deficit whats sustainable, what can be refinanced . The numbers dont really add up, and if you add in the dynamics of washington and dysfunction and credit downgrades and you add in refunding schedule, tra, things that we never really, you know, work the room on, its not good for equities, and make no mistake, on friday, if we get a really weak payroll number, yields are going to go lower. Theyre going to go lower before they go higher. Thats ultimately whats going to happen. The u. S. Economy is kind of like a stock. If gdp shrinks, youre going to have a dynamic where theyre not making as much money in u. S. Uusa corp. I think for equities, it ease easy to be critical about where all the eps growth has come from and where its going to be. We know this in q4, it was 68 growth by the top handful of stocks we all know and the rest grew by 0. 9. The street is expecting 12. 9 . Right now, i also dont think you can necessarily throw away the fact that the big stocks are the ones that could carry us through a rising rate environment. These are the stocks that are very defensive during that time. At the same time, were getting fed speak that indicate three is still a good baseline, which is what we were sort of debating in the past couple of sessions. I think thats what youre seeing, every time the fed comes out, the markets are going to get ahead of themselves. They really kind of showed their cards early. They were really indicative they are going to do so, now markets got excited and theyre pulling back. Weve seen this push and pull several times. I dont think its necessarily anything to be concerned about. The big question is, when are rates going to come down . We are still at a peak, maybe they dont cut at all this year, i know people are talking about that more. But i dont think theyre going higher, but i dont think you need to be overly concerned. If courtneys right with what she said, in terms of no cuts, that might be the most bullish scenario for stocks that is out there. Somewhat counterintuitive, but it would be that things are going fine, no reason to cut. Three cuts, if they start cutting rates, the inflationary pressures, which are problematic, are only going to continue. This gold move and bond move basically took place on that seemingly interpreted at dovish commentary a couple weeks ago. So, they have to combat that now and its not just happening. Its not just energy, its the soft commodities we talked about last week. You have crude oil where it is right now, you have the dollar where it is right now, wages where they are right now, you know, thats going to be hard to come by. We might have gotten to peak margins for s p 500 companies, when you start getting peak margins, thats when you tweak your valuation margins. The s p trading about 21 times, thats a few turns over the average over the last ten years or so. This is the most uncertain environment that weve had in our lifetimes about inflation, and i have never seen you can say that theres a lot of clarity about what the fed is saying and how theyre kind of signaling what they might do, ive never seen i dont know, confusion on their part. If you think about what at least the markets were interpreting three months ago, i dont think they have a clue. And i think that were going to see june cut priced out pretty quickly here, and, you know, i dont know, i dont know if a oneoff, you know, employment report on friday is going to do the thing. The way rates just rallied, like, moved over the last two trading days with that sort of thing, that was something that i think people really should Pay Attention to, because we still have not seen a lot of equity volatility. We had a vix that was trading at 12 1 2, what, two days ago . Yeah, the vix is maybe the story of the day, and i think thats a function of rates. Guys talking about gold. I think gold goes a lot higher. The traditional correlations for gold have kind of broken down. Gold is doing with this a higher dollar. Oil is doing this with a higher dollar. Commodities are doing this with a higher dollar. People want to be in terra f firma. I would go to a toll brothers, some of these names, i just feel like a little Interest Rate shock there has been a trade going on here, and if you look at it, actually, the strength in rates, so, rates moving higher in the fall, and then getting weaker, actually took these things to new highs, as if suddenly they were at the beginning of a cycle again. I dont think we are. Coming up, all the intel out of intel. The chip maker updating investors on the newfoundry business. Plus, calvin decline. Pvh plummeting despite an earnings beat. How it is leading the whole space lower. Dont go anywhere. More fast money in two. This is fast money with melissa lee right here on cnbc. grandpa im the richest guy in the world. man 1 i have time to give. man 2 i have people i can count on. grandma and a million stories to share. vo the key to being rich is knowing what counts. Your shipping manager left to find themself. leaving you lost. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire not all Caitlin Clarks are the same. Caitlin clark. City planner. Matching your job description. Just like not all internet providers are the same. Dont settle. You want fast. Get fast. You want reliable. Get reliable. You want powerful. Get powerful. Get real deal speed, reliability and power with xfinity. She shoots from here . Thats kinda my thing. Welcome back to fast money. Intel providing an update for its foundry business in the last hour. A call with investors happening right now. The stock down 4 afterhours to close the day down more than 1 . Kristina partsinevelos has the very latest. Intel looking to convince customers of better profitability as it separates its foundry business and intel products, to better highlights the metrics of intels businesses, starting in q1 2024 with the hopes it would improve its valuation. Its latest 8k said intel expects foundry operating losses to peak in 2024 and then hit break even operating margins at some point, they are using the term midway between the end of now and 2030, when it targets nongap Gross Margins of 40 and 30 nongap operating margins. But again, those operating margins that i just provided you are six years away. The stock, to your point, reacting negatively, because intel confirmed that the foundry business did operate at a loss of 6. 9 billion last year. You can see that on your screen, compared to, lets say, its product business that brought in 11. 3 billion, and that includes networking, data centers, et cetera. Investors arent convinced about the profitability, the margins, they are getting asked a lot of questions right now. The company, though, blaming the lack of profitability for its foundry business on, quote, the weight of past decisions and significant frontloaded investments like building the fabs. They are promising to spend 100 billion on american soil just over the next little while as they build out the fabs and have five new chip nodes in four years. With this breakout of the foundry business, they can they believe they can be better compared with taiwan semi conductor, the largest foundry in the world, so, thats the main point of it. You can compare now the product business with nvidia and the foundry business with tsmc. And. Kristina, thank you. Tim, you feel better about the intel story after this call . Look, its pretty clear every time they open their mouth, stock goes lower. And when they close their mouth, they get pulled up by the sector. Thats what it feels like. 7 billion in terms of operating loss, you know, for that unit and then the Services Side of it, i mean, its disappointing. Theres clearly tailwind for the space. Theres clearly tailwind for this company in our country, and but theres no question. Also, if you think about where were going to be in 2027 for their foundry business who knows. Thats absurd to be talking about 2027 two cycles, for all we know. Maybe i made up my mind today. Kind of exercise some thoughts here. I feel better, guy. It was a tough weekend for my mets, okay . Do i need to get it out here . It was a tough weekend. You cant let that cloud your feelings about intel. Not supposed to be emotional. Youve been sticking by intel for a long time, and the notion of the foundry business is one key reason why, and now its going to take much longer. Ive traded it around, and theres no question theres been different investment theses with in intel. And data center was really bread and butter, but we knew about ani, and that deterioration gave you a chance to trade it into this Inflection Point. Now, it seems to be the theme of the night, how long are we going to wait for profitability . 15 years, we didnt move our feet. The sector, the whole world passed us by without us even realizing it. We know those mistakes were made. Were moving on from them. Were a Homeland Security play, investing in the united states, you can believe in us. Thats the message. They just tell a really poor one. By the way, you know what was a similar story . Ibm, everybody loved ibm. They got lost along the way. The world passed them by. Look at them now. They figured it out. Intel has to figure it out. I actually think you can actually own intel here. All right, theres a lot more fast money to come. Heres whats coming up next. Apparel in peril. Vin investors in retail names checking out in a big way today. The headlines leading the group lower, and where the waengeakne lies, next. U. S. China relations in focus, as the president s of the two countries speak. What came out of that call . And how tiktok factors into the conversation. Youre watching fast money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Were back right after this. At Ameriprise Financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. All that planning has paid off. Looks like you can make this work. We can make this work. And the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice. I can make this work. That seems to be universal. I can make this work. I can make this work. No wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. Because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. Power e trades easy touse tools make complex trading less complicated. Custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. E trade from morgan stanley. She runs and plays like a puppy again. His 2s are perfect hes a brand new dog, all in less than a year. When people switch their dogs food from kibble to the farmers dog, they often say that it feels like magic. But theres no magic involved. dog bark its simply fresh meat and vegetables, with all the nutrients dogs need instead of dried pellets. Just food made for the health of dogs. Delivered in packs portioned for your dog. Its amazing what real food can do. christina with Verizon Business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. So, no matter what, im running this kitchen. vo make the switch. Its your business. Its your verizon. Welcome back to fast money. Looks like red may be the new black. Retail stocks down big today, led by Tommy Hilfiger and calvin klein owner pvh. That stock down more than 22 , its worst day since 1987. While the company did Beat Estimates for itsmost recent quarters forecast, revenue will decrease by as much as 7 in 2024 and 11 just in the first quarter. Other Apparel Companies falling today, too, among them, levis, vf corp, guess, and ralph lauren. All of them depend on other retail outlets to sell their goods. Maybe thats the common theme here. Youre seeing this with a lot of Different Companies reporting, and im still firmly of the belief, its not really a problem with the consumer. They are showing that expectations are way lower than anybody expected. I tonigdont now how much that them just lowering the bar even further, but you want to see the brands that companies are loyal to. This might not be one of those, that could clearly be a problem over the next couple of quarters here, but i dont think its a problem with the consumer. Iu. S. Wasnt that bad, but te final countdown was in europe. It was a lot you see what he said that the song that annoyed me listened to that song on the break. Tweet us if you know the name of the band. That is the band. You just gave it away. If you look at the move in the apparel names over the last three to six months, i mean, its been extraordinary, so, i courtneys right to say, we know the consumer hasnt fallen out of bed. I think discretionary is not a place to be. And i expect it not to be a place to be in 2024 and its been okay. I think were starting to get some signs. Some of these apparel folks, aber com bee, american eagle, and if you look, even ralph lauren was down big today, i think thats the message. These are thebrands that are kind of in the middle, like, theyre not high end, theyre not low end. 100 . They are smack in the middle, which is where you dont want to be. The stocks have had great runs, but put up the pvh chart. This move today was three months in the making. This was from december until now, gave it back in a day, i mean, thats problematic when you see moves like this. This is not a small cheap, its not huge, 6 billion company, but that speaks to a market, that speaks to David Einhorn who said a lot of the functions are broken. Coming up, that dream house is looking more and more like just that, a dream. How much housing payments have skyrocketed over the past year, and whether theres any relief in sight for would be home buyers. But first, President Biden holding a phone call with chinas president xi jinping. The headlines out of that conversation, and what to expect in secretary yellens trip to the mainland. When fast money returns. Missed a moment of fast . Catch us any time on the go. Follow the fast money podcast. Were back right after this. sirens [due at target in 5 ] copy that. Make a hard left down the alley. Networks got you covered. [please confirm requesting backup. ] changing route. Go. Roadblock ahead. Back up, back up. Reverse reverse next level moments, were 30 seconds out. Need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry ] coming through or 3, lets go. The network more businesses choose. Transplant received. At t business. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks dropping for another day as markets get off to a rough start to q2. The dow falling nearly 400 points, the s p down 0. 7 and the nasdaq down nearly 1 . All three having their worst daily performances in nearly a month. Some stocks managing to continue hot winning streaks. Newmont mining. Rtx. And kraft heinz up 122 in a row. Managed care stocks down sharply today. Investors were hoping for a larger increase in rates. The whole sector under pressure. President biden and chinese president xi jinping holding a phone call today, tackling issues ranging from tiktok ownership to economic relations. The white house saying the almost twohour call was a way for the leaders to check in and manage their strained relationship. It comes two days before treasury secretatariretary jan yellen travels to china. Stephen, what should we expect, if anything, out of secretary yellens visit to why that. Well, it comes at an important time, melissa, as all these visits do. First of all, when youre talking about the xi biden call, you have to cut the time in half because of consecutive translation, so, they each got maybe, i dont know, 45 minutes of air time, but secretary yellen has got to deal with this imbalance between supply and demand, which is putting too many chinese goods into the market right night and a source of concern for the u. S. I was in beijing last week, and theres a lot of talk about manufacturing and upgrading the production on the supply side, but a lot of hand wringing over the lack of demand, so, that imbalance is a big deal. And at the same time, we had many u. S. Ceos over there in beijing meeting with president xi and this sort of ere kes traited meeting, so, there is this acknowledgement on the part of beijing that they need american business, and yet theres this strained relationship that runs underneath, stephen, im wondering what you think of this relationship and how it will be as we approach the elections, particularly when were looking at a potential trump presidency, hes already, you know, threatened very steep tariffs on chinese goods. He has. Orchestrated is a good way to describe last weeks meet ing. Certainly china has demonstrated a willingness and continued to tell american businessmen that china is open for business and american businessmen have been more than delighted to echo that same sentiment, but they remain cautious. I was part of the group that was in china last week, sentiment is weak. The chinese policymakers are still giving mixed signals on their receptiveness to u. S. Business, so, you know, its pretty much the jurys out on where this is headed. Hey, stephen, its tim. Theres a lot of codependence that these countries have together, and, you know, so, whether it is international dynamics, but the diplomacy is welcomed. Do you think yellen heading to china has is there anything related to just whats going on in treasury markets or the biggest buyer of our treasuries, you know, are you at all concerned about this dynamic, its clear that Chinese Central Bank buying of gold and other diversifiers away from buying the stuff that historically china couldnt get enough of. Well, tim, i hear you on codependence, i wrote a book on that several years ago myself, but i dont think that secretary yellens visit is to talk much about chinas role in buying gold or buying u. S. Treasuries i think it has much more to do with just ongoing dialogue, part of the continued communication on strategic economic issues, especially now this supply demand imbalance. Stephen, we got some manufacturing data out of china over the weekend, and it was better than expected. Signaling that their economy is out of contraction. Did you get any reads on the ground there that would maybe just kind of say, okay, theres some bottoming process going on here, frome of the contacts you have away from the government . Well, theres hope that the worst is over. The premier did address the China Development forum in the opening session and spoke hopefully about trends in the first two months of the year, but you know, these are tentative reads, at best, given the shortfall in chinese growth last year. And i think theres still a lot of nervousness in beijing as to where the economy is headed in the months ahead. Stephen, we have to leave it there. Always a pleasure speaking with you. Thank you for your time. Like wise, thanks. Stephen roach. Where are you on china . There are lot of people that want to believe that maybe we are at this juncture of improvement. Yeah, we really remain constructive on emerging markets, including china, and i think you are seeing negative sentiment there. People are getting board on with emerging markets, i want to be in it, except for china, which is probably a good sign that people are still underinvested there. I think you want to have a piece of this in your portfolio. That january 22nd low in the fxi is holding up. We pointed out a number of times. And now at 2460, i think you can own the fxi, and Alibaba Holding in there, it hasnt traded particularly well, but i think china is going to surprise people to the upside. Coming up, Housing Market havoc. Home prices in february more than 5 higher than last year. Well explore the lockin effect of high Mortgage Rates and low supply hitting buyers and sellers hard. Plus, disneys board room battle coming to a head before a major vote tomorrow. Whats at stake for bob iger and nelson peltz and the rest of the Magic Kingdom, right after this. Its hard to run a business on your own. Make it easier on yourself. With shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. You can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. It doesnt have to be lonely at the top. Join the millions to finding success on their own terms. Start your journey with a free trial today. Maria and julio thought their life would never slow down. Then one day, it finally did. You were made to find inner peace. We were made to track flight prices to paradise. Welcome back to fast money. Trouble for the Housing Market, as high Mortgage Rates and low supply are combining to keep the cost of Home Ownership high. Diana olick has a deep dive on the numbers. Melissa, home prices in february were 5. 5 higher than february of last year, and the price gained from january to february was actually nearly twice what it was historically p prepandemic, suggesting that this springs market started out very strong, despite another rebound in Mortgage Rates. The trouble, of course, continues to be lack of supply, which is 40 below where it usually is, because of that lockin effect of current homeowners who wont sell because the cost of moving up is so high. How high . Well, in the 22 years before the fed started raising rates, for the average homeowner, moving to a similar house, say across the street, wouldnt change their Monthly Payment at all. Upgrading to a 25 more expensive home would increase their Monthly Payment of principle and interest by 40 , or about 400. Now, fast forward to today, and for home owners who have rates near record lows, buying ing o home in the current market would increase their Monthly Payment by 60 and trading up to a 25 more expensive home would result in a 132 increase in that Monthly Payment, or about 1,800 more. Now, this is an average for the nation, so, it will vary market to market, and in the higher cost markets, its even more than that, melissa, so, its kind of crazy. Are there still all cash buyers out there, diana . Because Mortgage Rates wouldnt pertain to them. Yeah, in fact, theres a much larger share of all cash buyers now than there have been in the past, and thats because theyre trying to get out of this Mortgage Rate effect where they would have to pay so much more. Some people are using cash to be more competitive. The trouble is, that firsttime buyer is having trouble saving just for the down payment, so, for them to get all cash is going to be very hard. Were hearing about housing hacks, where people are buying homes together with family members or friends. But really, all cash is the way to do it if you want to keep these costs down. Group buying sounds like a terrible idea, but thats just me personally. Dia diana, thank you. So, what does this tell us . People are really entrenched, and if they do move, they have less money in their pockets, because their payment is so much more. What do you do here . Its a real problem thats happening. And millennials, theres more of them than baby boomers who are creating families. Theres not enough houses to go around. And people are still under the 4 rate, so, even if Interest Rates come down, people are not going to be selling their homes any time in the near future. Thats where the Home Builders come in. The way to get more housing is to build at a cheaper entry point. I think dr horton is going to continue to benefit from that. The only thingi think that derails it is the unemployment rate. If people start losing that will force the hands of people, more supply will come. Not hoping for that. Thats sort of the wild card out there. With that said, the xhb, 111 and change. 4. 5 , williams sonoma, look at that chart. These things have been parabolic, so youre sticking with it here, understanding if unemployment starts ticking higher, that is going to come cascading higher. Toll brothers has gone from 45 to 124 since october of 22. The moves here have been staggering. Now, the moves that have been also around when weve had those periods of higher rates and then weve had a pullback in that dynamic, youve seen a lot of stocks completely outperform. Look, ive been wrong on housing, you know, my view halfway through last year is that wed seen the peak in the housing cycling. Whats fascinating to me is that home depot and lowes have great charts, and they have been the beneficiaries of people sitting tight and doing what they have to do where they live. Coming up, the battle for disneys board room ends tomorrow. Will this be a big one for disney or could activists stage a big comeback . More on the fate of the Magic Kingdom next. And heres a sneak peek at the cramer cam. Jim is chatting with the ceo of payc paychex. Thats coming up on on mad money. More fast money in two. Including over 400 technical studies. Tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. And track Market Trends with uptotheminute news and insights. Trade brilliantly with schwab. grandpa vo im the richest guy in the world. Hi baby woman 1 vo i have inherited the best traditions. woman 2 vo i have a great boss. Its me. man 1 vo i have people, people i can count on. man 2 vo i have time to give grandma vo and a million stories to share. grandpa vo if thats not rich, i dont know what is. vo the key to being rich is knowing what counts. Business. Its not a ninetofive proposition. Its all day and into the night. Its all the things that keep this world turning. The gotos that keep us going. The places we cheer. And check in. They all choose the advanced Network Solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. See why comcast business powers more Small Businesses than anyone else. Get started for 49. 99 a month plus ask how to get up to an 800 prepaid card. Dont wait call today. Welcome back to fast money. Less than 24 hours until the house of mouses pivotal Shareholder Meeting and disney is clinching early victories. Bloomberg reporting that disneys biggest Institutional Investor is voting in favor of the companys proposed board slate, that adds to its reported lead among the votes counted so far. So, how should investors digest the likely outcome for the Magic Kingdom . And does it matter at this point . Because a lot of people have been finally recognizing disney as a value here. Yeah, i think, as we pointed out, julia boorstins pointed this out, some of the agenda are similar on both sides. Theres no question, this is really about profitability and cutting some costs. There are some dynamics, i think, around the streaming business that are really its as if were having this theme tonight, companies that were not making money that at some point need to show they can be profitable in a core part of their business and the guidance weve gotten from the company is really amazing. Its been a significant turn. The valuation still makes a lot of sense, even after a massive move in the stock. Guys marked this many times. Where was the bottom . 77ish, yeah. Amazing. I think the environment is still for the stock to go higher. Given that run and the selloff, it had every opportunity to sell off, take profits. It was higher on the day. Im with tim on this. May report in early may, i think you stay with it into earnings. You like disney . I do. You want to kind of put the proxy battle aside. This is a company, theyre increasing cash flow, their streaming business is close to profitability. Really strong parks business. And i think depending on where you see things going, if it is going to go disneys way, thats supportive, they like the way things are going. I think you absolutely want to pay this here. Do you think well hear about bob igers succession . No. I dont. Maybe dan imagine dan running disney. No. What you hear that . That was nancy laughing in the back. Well, i mean, its like a magical kind of place. Right. Maybe they need a nonmagical person. And very realistic person i see. Yeah, not my jam. Ill go do something in the real world. Magic and i love iger, bob iger is going to go down, no matter one of the greatest ceos. When you think of the asset that he bought, the lucas, the pixar, the marvel. What theyve been able to create in and around that, and think about how difficult the streaming last ten years have been for everybody. For everybody, and what it might look like for the next 10 to 12, whatever it is, and it will be on those assets they bought. Up next, final trades. Billys not just running a small goat grazing business hes also the chief marketing officer. And when he needs to round up some new customers Constant Contact makes it easy. Helping him craft the perfect message like a marketing genius so his email stands out. Constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. If billy can do it so can you. Get started today at constantcontact. Com. Helping the small stand tall. Welcome to ameriprise. Im sam morrison. My brother max recommended you. So, my best friend sophie says youve been a huge help. At Ameriprise Financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. Our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. Because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. Hows your father doing . To help reach your goals with confidence. My sisters told me so much about you. Thats why its more than advice worth listening to. Its advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. Final trade time. Tim . Look at that move in energy, xle, but break it down, one of the key names, and also one of the key names in blicep, of course, is chevron. Thats right, cvx. Courtney . Disney. We talked about this earlier. I think this is a company thats undervalued. A good play for the long run. Still good to own. Dan . The b in blicep is baba. Play it through the kweb. Also the b in zebra. Oh, yeah. The iowa Womens Basketball team, huge fans of fast money. They deserve it. Rtx. Thank you for watching my mission is simple. To make you money. I am here to level the Playing Field for all investors. There is always and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, i am jim cramer. Welcome to mad money. Trying to help you save some money. My job is not just entertainment. What can i say about this market . The inputs today, they are plain bad. Creeping up every day, you cannot have Mortgage Rates about the climb and you