Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240704

The nasdaq down even more, 1. 8 . You add the magnificent 7. There was a pullback of, i think, 233 billion in market cap for those big magnificent 7. The only one that ended higher was invip ya shares of apple down 3 after a report of struggling iphone sales in china then you had tesla, down by even more than that, and pretty decisive declines in technology. It was interesting watching them one by one. Kind of roll . Were going to need a terrific two. Terrific two or the rest of the averages the rest of the stocks to kaup up to what the magnificent seven do. They want to solve income inequality that i wamgt to bring everybody else down. I wish everyone would join the magnificent 7. Apple has been a great stock and a great harbinger of this tech bull market of the magnificent 7. So has tesla now were really i mean all our eggs are in nvidia at this point, although, i dont think we need to anybody whos worried about most over the past 25 years has been proven wrong . Yeah. Yeah. Im not so worried about zuckerberg is so smart even though hes got a lot of pit falls. By the way, this was a pullback for the s p and the dow. I think youre talking about the classic 2 for the lowtime highs for the dow and s p 500. Its weird. It says the average is sold off but the more speck lartive parts of the rally its pulled back. And reboundinged in the media. 69, 59 where are we were looking at 65 today. Lets very quickly look at treasuries the 10year today yielding 4. 16 and the 2year the bitcoin climbing to a new high of 69,000. Then it tumbledmy by more than 8 and jumped pat up to 66. 6. It was all the way to 59. Its all right here in the paper, but it went down. It went 69 to 59,700 then a 4 retreat, but whos counting for the month and six months, one year, five year did you read this they were a catalyst to currency comeback. Have you ever seen it not on the front page not on the front page of the wall street journal. They called it the currents dont you think they had to think about that. Think of all the things we have to be careful with now. You know the great picture of the veteran kissing the nurse . Yeah, yeah. They banned that. Why because he looked so happy he might have grabbed her and forced himself on her. Then the v. A. Said thats crap. The woke person thought it was a bad sign. My grandparents who came home at that point, how excited they were. That is a big i wonder how the turf battle kind of sees that between gary gensler, between what happens at the cf d. C. Meantime President Biden and former President Donald Trump dominated super tuesdays nominating ontest, each of the winning hundreds of delegates and moving must closer to clinching their nominations. Biden has secured more than 72 of the total he needs to secure the democratic nomination. Trump ended the day with about 98 of the total to form aally be the presumptive gop nominee he declared his victory without mentioning Nikki Haley Nikki haley won in vermont, 50 to trumps 45 but she lost in the other 14 states that actually voted haley did not speak overnight about her future adam schiff and steve garvey won the top two seats to fill the late senate seat of dianne feinstein. Schiff is the only democrat in that state in a state that has elected a republican senator since the 1960s. Please, god, please, god. Here it is right here. That i didnt see coming that i didnt see coming. No. So many things in our history need to be wiped away, so many things its just a lot of things. People get very uncomfortable with a lot of things thats kind of really . Thats the first instance the left has it wasnt a surprise all day long, she was going to win vermont. The polls showed she was up or tied. She got big support from the governor there, chris sununu. Republican. Sununu. Thats new hampshire. Yes, youre right no. I told him its the land of ben jerrys and Bernie Sanders its the land of ben jerrys and Bernie Sanders so let me ask you. At this point shes shown a lot of backbone and, you know, resolve and everything is that good people say that shes setting herself up for potential in 2020. But listening to a lot of you know, it was never real, the hubris it was never going to happen, at least the last two weeks it never ends up looking stupid or do we say thats just politics i think shes trying to look to beyond what happens in 2024 i mean clearly its not going to be something that happens this time around for her. The question is what does she do from here. New york times, this is unbel unbelievable what would you call it hair on fire for a lot of o people i dont want to be the bearer of bad news theyre going to shoot the merger donald trump met with elon musk. If elon musk already had no fans, former fans, he definitely has none left on that side of the aisle. He met with the orange man in palm beach, florida, along with wealthy republican donors, the report citing three people briefed on the meeting saying the former president is seeking additional major donors. He might qualify to shore up his finances as he heads toward the election. Its not clear whether musk will back trump he was asked to marek comments back in ancient history like january 20th, 2020. The first covid case arrived in the u. S. I interviewed him at davo. Did you he gave a very pissy response hes good with rockets, and he got a lot of grief hes always been a fan of elon. No. He called elon an expletive at one point, but elon musk has had much bigger problems with the current president of the white house. He is good with the restaurants. Rockets. He was the bell of davos. That was january 21st and it was before covid and everyone was looking at the economy Kyrsten Sinema is not going to be around she was going to have a thard time. She was in third place. He had decided to run for reelection. Shes going to leave the senate at the end of the year when her term ends. Heres what she said in a video posted on x. The only political things that matter these days are symbolic c compromise is a dirty word weve arrived at that crossroad. We chose anger and division. I believe in my approach, but its not what america wants right now. Virginia senator joe manchin said yesterday hes worried about the fate of the filibuster after sinema leaves the senate rue been gallego has said he does not support the filibuster and they were both the bull wark, the remaining it depends where they go too. Very close. But the middle is you know, heres two more people in the middle that are gone larry hole began is running for not. Thats possible. Nobodys running in the middle. Its been happening for years. We used to ask whos in the mid. We had manchin and sinema. I used to think of evan bye. Nobody has left at that point. No. When we come back, jay powell is set to tiff before the House Financial Services committee this morning but before that agains on what he expected to hear from the fell chair. Nikki haley will deliver remarks at 10 00 a. M. Today in charleston well update you when we know more squawk box will be right back. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. The future is not just going to happen. You have to make it. And if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. The all new godaddy airo. Put your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. You can make money the hard way as a bullfighter put your Business Online in minutes or a human cannonball. Or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. Existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year not only will you save hundreds but youll also be joining millions who have connected to americas most reliable 5g network. Sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. Get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. Visit xfinitymobile. Com today to learn more. Welcome back, everybody. Fed chair jay powell will testify later this morning on capitol hill our next guest is going to be leading those hearings joining us right now is Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick Mchenry mr. Chairman, thank you for being here today this is a pretty important day for the markets. What are you hoping to hear from the fed chair . Two things. I think the important thing is to make clear what the fed is now thinking going into this Political Year operate setting i think they need to send a certain message, a strong message with certainty about how they intend to process data, especially given the backdrop of the election the second piece is regulatory policy michael bar has put forward a massive new Regulatory Regime in the name of raising bank capital. Its become a mess and theres become bipartisan opposition to this, theres an opposition to the real economy, not just to banks on this new proposal and its been called out as a massive dysfunction in the name of the Capital World and i want to hear how the the fed process and how theyre going to dedeal with this regime. Its what all are looking to those are things way p i want to hear. Lets start out with your first question, the idea that you want to hear very strong message operate setting. I mean the picture has gotten a little more complicated with stronger than expected Inflation Numbers that suggested maybe its not going to be so easy for feds to cut rates at least immediately. If they say were dependent on the data, well see what happens. Is that Strong Enough for you just to say its data dependent . Well, its data dependent, but we keep hearter about refinement were going to try to get what we can for congressional oversight its always been difficult, but especially in these uncertain times, its quite challenging for sure. You also have the added issue of this being an Election Year you hijted at that in your Opening Statements on this if he says its data dependent, were not going to cut now, but well see what happens in the next few months, is that a satisfactory answer . What happens if the fed actually ends up cutting rates two months before the election . Does that raise questions for you from a political perspective because jay powell has been saying there are no polling ticks involved do you take him at his word . This is not going to be Political Data dependent but Economic Data dependent and drill on inflation thats still a Major Economic issue for the American People and the thing i hear most clearly, the cost of everything is going to go up dramatically, and its a huge political Pressure Point way. To make sure theyre focused on the data, not on the politics. Hes said that again and again. Is him repeating this enough for you . Well, look. Hes got to refine that. Hes got to be much clearer how theyre going to process this data we know theyre in a Political Year all the agencies are trying to drive regulation as quickly as they can because the Congressional Review Act that gives congress the authority to repeal major rule making, theyre under that clock and so we want to make clear i think chairman powell needst make clear that theyre not going to look to the Congressional Review Act theyre going to try to make this dependent on the data and it gets very complicated with refinements to this rule and theyll start anu, start afresh. The fed shouldnt dependent on the political clock. They should be looking at driving the stability. Theres question about the stability in the bank and there are new developments at the Community Bancorp if thats a contagion. Whats happening with real estating and thats a big issue for a lot of the regional banks. How many questions do you have in terms of the stability of it at this point . I think the system is safe and sound. The Bank Failures we saw last year at this time were to very specific instances of rapid rate increases having an impact on Balance Sheetses a Balance Sheet is one related to the real estate i think the market is making a severe statement about their assumption about the bank and i think regulators mavi to respond. They have the capacity and law to do that, and we know how to resolve banks without those that have deposit insurance without them taking any hit to their ktss. Mr. Chairman, wheres your sense of the economy right now whether the fed should or should cut rats do you have any thought on that before you hear from them . Look. We have inflation thats receded in many of the ways that the fed measures this. The average experience of the American People of the current econmy data, so i think the fed has to be clear about this ive tried to be thoughtful on my rhetoric about the fed unlike folks in washington. Im much more concerned about regulatory policy than whether its one rate cut or six this year thats something the market can opine about. Im trying to figure out if the regulatory policy isnt absurd and dumb at this point what we see from the bank capitol raise that borrowers propose is both absurd and dumb you think it affects the potential for american banks to be competitive, the American Financial system i think it will have an impact in the long term, and it also brings the fed into this poli political milieu of the federal policy and an Election Year. If they want to come into the political waters and look partisan, then they should drive forward with the bar proposal, and if they want to be viewed as an independent policy, they need to be much more methodical about it im concerned about the impact and how the fed is broodly viewed and whether theyre i think theyve got a lot of Reputational Risk if they go in a different direction later this month. Coming up, openai responding to elon musk lets move, opening up about emails. Later Mohamed El Erian will weigh in on what he expected to hear from the fed chair. Squawk box returns ur trades is on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. Tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. And track Market Trends with uptotheminute news and insights. Trade brilliantly with schwab. Theyre waiting for you. Hey, do you have a second . Theyre all expecting more. More efficiency. More benefits. More growth. When you realize you can give your people everything, and more. Thank you very much. [applause] ask, now what . Heres what. You go with prudential to protect, empower and grow. With everything you need to deliver, you guessed it. More. One more thing. Whos your rock . Learn more at prudential. Com glp1 drugs used in weight loss treatments stand out as the biggest global blockbuster, but these treatments require cumbersome injections. With lexarias patented oral delivery technology, early studies suggest a better way. Lexaria bioscience. Nikki haley will deliver remarks in charleston today at 10 00 a. M. A source familiar with her plans confirmed to nbc news she will as now shes exiting the president ial race. Well talk more with paul ryan, former speaker of the house. The big question, will she endorse donald trump when she bows out. Exactly that is a big question, big decision. Time now for executive edge. Openai has publicly responded to a lawsuit with elon musk the tesla ceo encouraged the startup to raise at least a billion dollars in funding and agreed it should start being less open and, in his words, not share the companys science with the public in one email in 2018 musk wrote openai had no chance of becoming a competitor to Googles Deepmind without relative changes. Last week he accused the company and Ceo Sam Altman from deviating from its initial mission by keeping the worksen of its post he told them change your name, that openai is no longer an open source project for the betterment of humanity but a for profit enterprise. We should note cnbc has not all t thent indicated it he sounds like he was fairly definitive in what he was saying, but it was six years ago. I dodge think any of us saw what was coming or how quickly we were going go here in terms of openai his tweet, he said they should rename themselves closed sour source for he told andrew to change his name to jonathan he said change open source. Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, when we come back, were going to talk markets after yesterdays 1 pull back for the dow and the s p. The futures this morning are a little higher, bouncing back a little bit after yesterdays declines the dow right now accounted by 85 points, the s p futures up by to and the nasdaq up by 135 points right here. As we head to a break, lets take a look at yesterdays s p 500 winners, which were hard to find, and the losers too announcer executive edge is sponsored by at t business nextlevel moments need the nextlevel network of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. Good morning and welcome back to squawk box live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square checking the futures, the nasdaq is having a pretty good rebound, but not a lot happening. The dow is up 73 points, the s p up 17. None of the moves that big im going to look at the vix we have asked it picked up slightly. Is it going to be a year that puts us to sleep again in terms of volatility . It is. Oh, my god its low 14. 14. The yearly low is 11. 81. It doesnt feel like watching paint dry though. Watching grass dry. Right thats a little slow too. Very slow. Investors are awaiting fed chair jay powells testimony on capitol hill on the clear path to rate cuts joining us is gabriella e santos all of a sudden with the wobbles in the market and the concerns that played out, people are saying if jay powell offers some surprise or makes it sound like its going to get tougher to a rate cut thats going to shake the job confidence. Were getting a lot of questions on whether the equity market has sustainable decoupled from reits yeah, stockmarkets can kolkt to do well while rates remain at a more elevated level. Were talking slightly delayed and more gradual pace of rate cuts were not talking about rate hikes being bake on the table. I think its more digestible being high for a longer environmental. The capital has decreased. Does the market get more nervous that the cuts wont come later because the fed wont want to look political . Sfwloo weve looked historically since the 80s and the fed has actually moved in all but one president ial election moment, which was 2012 theyve hiked five times, cut five times, often its a continuing hikes and cuts, but it hasnt precluded them from acting now, look, i dont think theyre going to want to mbut i dont think it takes a june cut off the table and then another later on, perhaps november and september. I with going to say if inflation is 2 , it should be a 4. If its 1 , it should be nothing. Why would you weve normalized it after all those years where it was crazy, negative Interest Rates and all that were finally in a position to have dry powder and to get back to more normal in that last mile. And the economy looks strong. And the economy looks strong. In the last mile with wages and a tight labor market, it might be really, really hard so why expect any cuts until you know its not being at the cusp of an easing cycle but a normalization cycle, meaning unless Something Big changes on productivity or if inflation remains permanently sticky, which is our base case and 5. 4 on shortterm rates is too high. So its really trying to come back to what we could argue is a more neutral level of Interest Rates, something closer to 3, 3. 5 , or about 100 basis points. So you think were still in the new normal to use moe hamgd el err rans phrasing. Old normal. I think thats a chapter we closed postprepandemic. Its also not 5. 4 Interest Rates. If you look at whats priced in, its a pretty shallow racecutting cycle at this point. The market has really come around to this idea that the economy is not tanking and this is just normalizing. You argue all the time whether were restrictive. Maybe well know more on friday. But have we seen any signs that were restrictive, and if were not restrictive, then there would be no reason you think we are restrictive you think twos in the cards for now the rate is 2 1 2 some have moved it closer to 3 . I think the market has settled on 3. 6, that kind of area. Theres been good improvements on the productivity side theres been an increase and uptick in expectations for a longterm growth in our view it continues to materialize. A lot of seasonality, a lot of nuances between different measures of rent but if inflation continues to normalize by 2 toward the middle of the year based on our expectation, theres no reason to think that rates too high above 5 makes sense gabriela, thank you. Thank you so much. Coming up, cybersecurity, and then were going to talk Political Division in america as the nation prepares for a president ial rematch between joe biden and donald trump Arthur Brooks is going to tell us that we need to be happy about this. Please, let him have an impact. About this. About biden and trump. Were supposed to be happy a reminder these guys his job is hard, but hes always smiling. Hes always happy. He must be oblivious or something. A reminder, follow along on your podcast. Listen to squawk box any time. Well be right back. Wall street forecasts over 100 billion in sales for antiobesity drugs known as glp 1. But these treatments are largely administrated through cumbersome injections. Enter Lexaria Bioscience with their patented oral delivery technology. Early studies were glp1 suggest reduced side effects and better blood sugar control with reduced spikes. Lexaria bioscience. Transforming the future of glp1 drug delivery. vo a law partner rediscovers her grandmothers artistry and establishes a Charitable Trust to keep the craft alive for generations to come. From preserving a cultural tradition to leaving a legacy, a Raymond James Financial Advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you enrich your community. Thats life well planned. Crowd strike reporting earnings of 95 cents a share that was above estimates of 82 cents. Revenue also above in the companys current guidance in the full year. Crowd strike also announced its going to acquire flow Security Company for an undisclosed price to bolster its offerings in cloud data production. Shares of nordstrom are plunging after the quarter topped wall streets estimates but warned a decline could come next year. It also plans to open 22 new rack stores this your, calling that chain its largest source of new customer acquisition, down 10 . When we come back, nikki haley planning to exit the president ial race today. Well talk to Arthur Brooks about the president ial rematch of President Biden and former President Trump. Well talk about that. Also mohammed el air ran will weigh in today on the testimony expected by fed aichr jay powell expected by fed aichr jay powell and his expectations for job. [car trunk slammed shut] data squawk box will be right back. , Morgan Stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future. Crowd stop it . Only you can see. American announcer rose, back in the winners circle. [crowd cheers] [music out] the all new godaddy airo helps you get your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. With a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. Just start with a domain, a few clicks, and youre in business. Make now the future at godaddy. Com airo theyre waiting for you. Hey, do you have a second . Theyre all expecting more. More efficiency. More benefits. More growth. When you realize you can give your people everything, and more. Thank you very much. [applause] ask, now what . Heres what. You go with prudential to protect, empower and grow. With everything you need to deliver, you guessed it. More. One more thing. Whos your rock . Learn more at prudential. Com nikki haley planning to exit the president ial race today. Here joining us to talk about the president ial rematch, Arthur Brooks, emeritus, professor, a contributing writer. U didnt know we were going to grill you on that. Thats what they put i read whats in front of me since you talk about happiness all the time, lets talk about happiness because theres a real disconnect right now there was a poll a couple of days ago, one or six in the last few weeks that have shown basically the same thing, but kind of surprising only 18 of people polled think that bidens policies have helped them, and the former president , trump, is like 20 points higher, even among women for individuals saying i was more helped by trumps policies than bidens policies. And were going to have another biden surrogate on today, ro khanna, a great guy, a friend of mine hes going to be making case its a tough case obviously to unhappy if things are so good with the labor market, gdp, and the stock market people are in a very sour mood in the United States today. Part of the reason is because we have this this polarizing figures in Politics Today and in media, of course, that are trying to bringing theyre talking down the country is what it comes down to when people are saying you should be angry, you should be outraged, people will be notwithstanding anything that is good about public policy. It sounds like what im going to hear and what i do hear, is that people dont know how theyre supposed to feel and theyre being told by the media how to look, the media is not going to tell which media is going to tell people to not like joe biden . Hes got the theyll do anything they can to try to help him. So, it is happening, this is happening in spite of the media being heres whats been going on for the past ten years we got into a dark triad paradigm real social science, sounds like a cool van, it is a social science dark triad. Three personality characteristics heavy metal. It is a combination of narcissism, all about me, machiavellianism, im willing to hurt you and psychopathy, i have no remorse that constellation, it occurs in 7 of the population and theyre ordinarily not successful. Are you saying one of them no one of the candidates has all three. Parties are dominated by activists and activists tend to be dark triads we have gotten into the bullying paradigm where everybody has been bullied and being manipulated and nobody likes it but we dont know what to do as a country. The country doesnt know how to get away from the clutches this is not just politics. This is business manipulated b activists, and this dark triad, 7 that has way too much it is an amplification device for this it is an accelerant to the big problem. When the 7 are in control, the 93 of the rest of us are, like, i dont know, but i hate it all. I dont know why. How has that cycle been broken in the past the cycle has been broken in the past two ways, rebellion, i hate it, i dont want it, get away from me, stay away from my kids, dont tell me how to vote, stop number two, someone comes along and says i have a better way, how about changing the country from fear to love . What do you say about that thats what Ronald Reagan did. You called it a rebellion other people call it a revolution. The reagan revolution rebellion against what had been going on where but that meant that was a guy talking about a shiny city on a hill that right and allows everybody to flourish. What happens is the unimaginative median politicians are saying the other guy is evil, be outraged, be sad, and it is ruining Mental Health from young to old in this country, making people feel sad and angry and anxious and lonely and depressed and when a good leader it come along, a series of good leaders can come along, when it gets cool to be happy, things start to change. Ronald reagan did that and other people have as well. Eight more months. Yeah. You got dark brandon on one side, youve seen his speeches when he youve seen those, right, with the dark behind him and and then you got someone who on the other side on any given night you have no idea what hes going to say, you know, go ahead and invade a nato country. You dont know. Nothings going to get youre screwed youre not going to be able to do anything for the next eight months you are are you kidding youre swimming uphill and the four years to follow. It is a great market for what i have to do because people actually care about it. Like cable tv we have to recognize that were in it for the long haul in the United States. We need to be thinking about whats going to happen in ten and 20 years from now. Cultivating leadership who do you see as potential leaders on either side i see it at the local level the United States the great thing about the United States is that local and state politics tend to be upstream from National Stuff now, it is more true with republicans. Republicans are more of a Grassroots Party and what you see at the local level is what youre going to see later. I see all kinds of people that want to work for the 70 , the 70 issues that democrats and republicans can work on together, that want to lift people up and bring them together and who recognize that other americans are not my enemy. This tribal mentality where the biggest threat, look, this in my world, i see the craziest data 71 of democrats on dating sites wont date a republican. 41 of republicans wont date a democrat you might be wondering about the difference between that, because wome democratic, men are more republican and women are choosier than men on dating sites. The whole point is, it is the worst, now theyre getting into romantic love. Go to a better restaurant with a republican . I would think what . So we have a huge opportunity in this country to actually start to fight back. You dont think so . Youre playing into the tropes no kidding. The good days are ahead of us if we want them is the whole bottom line. We start to look for the local we want them and, look, there is a lot of people watching us great, so the two people that kept the senate from going totally nuts are both gone now theyre both gone. Sinema as of yesterday. Yeah. All hell could break loose. You dont need a different person you need same people thinking differently and talking differently and theyre herd animals. This is the point. If they start to say, i guess this is what we do, we stop denigrating america, we stop insulting our neighbors, stop telling people to stop talking to the sisterinlaw because she votes democratic, okay, thats what were doing now, and thats where leadership can bring the way it actually works for our audience, because a lot of people watching us will go run a company after they finish watching us today, start standing up to the activists on your workforce start standing up to the people trying to manipulate you and the Hr Department and saying all the things that are hateful and polarizing and theyre making people actually unhappy in your workforce. Happiness starts at home is the bottom line. If we start by standing up to the activists, which are the dark triad bullies in the country, ruining our politics media companies, campuses and everything in between, we get a better future. Love it unfortunately, when you describe that person, im pointing over here im not pointing at myself it is people over there when you describe it, theyre pointing at me, and theyre not pointing i actually said that the other day. My positions are not the problem at this point. Okay. And someone said i was air dw arrogant to say that. Most people think that. Once we have a commitment together and start working together imagine, look, you get governors and mayors who say, im from massachusetts, we from time to time have really good we have really good republican governors i knew Charlie Baker terrific governor. Best governor in america what did he say . I cant do all the things i want to do. Because im not majority what im going to do is the things we can actually do together. You dont know i live in needham beautiful town beautiful town. I know needham. Arthur, they say were over. We got to go im a little happier. Lets make america happy again. I love this wall street forecasts over 100 billion in sales for antiobesity drugs known as glp 1. But these treatments are largely administrated through cumbersome injections. Enter Lexaria Bioscience with their patented oral delivery technology. Early studies were glp1 suggest reduced side effects and better blood sugar control with reduced spikes. Lexaria bioscience. Transforming the future of glp1 drug delivery. Rylee from rylees realty hi this listing sounds incredible. Lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. dad, dont forget about my new cleats. Sweetie, i cant make it to dicks this week. Have you heard of dicks. Com . Have i heard of dicks. Com . Girl lets go lets go have i heard of dicks. Com . screaming whoa. Dont overthink it. Lets go shopping. Actually what i need are some cleats. How about one of these . Great. Done. Anything else . No. Golf clubs . Not for me, for a friend. Yeah, yeah, of course. Anyone impressed with how fast that was . Yeah, totally i know, i went to dicks. My cleats thank you i love you wha. Ii went to dicks. Com. Ever heard of it . Girl 2 yeah, i told you about that. good morning and welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Im joe kernen, along with becky quick. And were late andrew is off today. Not that late. Are we it was worth it it was. It was youre happier. I am. I love Arthur Brooks here are the futures. I like albert brooks. Makes me happy. Up 88 points. Little bit of a rebound. Turns into a route yesterday when it was all said and done. Tech wasnt happy and it hasnt been happy for a couple of sessions i dont know whether it has to do with apple or tesla, whatever you want to point to the tech sector, the worst since january 2nd. Yeah still, you know, can still go back up and go to new highs at this point treasuries, all the powell testimony were going to talk about and hear today with all that said, it is at 4. 16 . And crypto, we saw bitcoin yesterday hit a new high, above 69,000, turn around and trade in the 59,000 area. And then today up 8 , back up 8 to over 67,000. And we have some breaking news from palantir our very own Morgan Brennan joins us with more on this front. Morgan, good morning. Good morning. Good to be here on set with you guys this is a high profile win for palantir the defense tech startup awarded the u. S. Armys titan program, picked over an industry stalwart rtx, marking the first time a Software Company becomes a prime contractor of a big hardware program. Titan or tactical intelligence targeting access node, this is a mobile ground station that accesses data from terrestrial and Space Centers using a. I. To help provide more precise targeting for long range precision strikes on battlefield planning palantir, it is deploying the armys first a. I. Defined vehicle. First contract, 178 million to develop and deliver ten prototypes, working with subcontractors that include Northrop Grumman and startup aral industries. It is significant. The engineering and Manufacturing Development phase estimated to be about 400 million. This is big for palantir, though this represents the companys fourth largest contract by annual revenue run rate. And it boosts the government portfolio as growth in palantirs u. S. Commercial business has been surging. Also reflects the role that a. I. Will and already increasingly is playing on the battlefield and as you can see right there, shares of palantir moving higher right now in the premarket, up about 3 for the lay person, dropping an a. I. Box like this, on the battlefield, means what . You can see where the enemy is moving or it can predict where the enemy is going to move yeah, so, all of that this whole idea of long range Precision Targeting data basically being able to pull data from Space Centers and Space Centers and terrestrial, air, land, take all that data, basically boil it down, run it through a. I. Models, essentially, im assuming, and then be able to take that and have a more precise locater for whatever it is youre looking on the battlefield that is not within plain sight, thats further away. Big deal. Yeah. Just use a nuke and get rid of everything. But dont you want the most precise information and targeting data before im cynical about how scary everything is. Hypersonic weapons, i guess we dont have, and putin is talking about a nuke on a satellite, and it just i mean it is a very you can have a more surgical we need to cover all our bases, surgical and, i guess, we need to this is one of those arguments against regulating a. I. , right . That you can talk about it, you can talk about societal impacts and what this means for the country domestically, what happens when you have adversaries like china, like russia, particularly china, harnessing this data, not applying the same ethics to the way theyre developing the last thing we need to do is use a. I. For warfare would be the other argument one is offensive, one is defensive. I would say that the u. S. Military and the pentagon have been very deliberate in terms of how they have been rolling out the guidelines and the ethics around where this gets implemented, how it gets implemented, and what that looks like, for example. And greg hayes talked about this and other defense contractors, the fact that there is always some sort of human decision within, you know, a kill chain process. It is not just the a. I. Making all the decisions when lives are at stake. A. I. With the iron dome or the patriot that would make it even better than it is right now, i guess so, like anything, used for good or evil. Exactly it is not wanting to fall behind in the arms race, though. Right who is reading this . Later today on closing bell overtime, margen will be talking more about this with palantir ceo shyam sankar. With the cto about this news and more this has been one of those a. I. Beneficiaries in terms of the stock surge we have seen this year and last. Morgan, thank you fed chair jay powell set to testify before Congress Today and tomorrow here now mohamed elerian, chief economic adviser at allianz. Were you watching earlier . We can continue with a previous discussion we already had if you dont mind can you tell me, definitively, where we are right now, are we restrictive, is the current level of the yield curve is it restrictive to the u. S. Economy . If your inflation is 2 , youre probably neutral now. If your inflation target is more appropriate 2 plus something and that something is much closer to 3 , so if your inflation target is near 3 , which is where it should be, we are restrictive, and we risk damaging growth unnecessarily. You had a lot of ifs there. So nobody really knows whether it matters though, doesnt it were not restrictive, and i dont know if you can tell whether we are, from how strong the economy is, i would think it is tough to find places that make it look like were restrictive, there would be no reason to cut at all this year, and youre starting to see people say that. Where are you now . Two cuts, get us down to, i dont know, get us down to five or so, with inflation somewhere between 2 and 3 . Im where i was when the market was six to seven cuts and now where some people are saying no cuts. Were geeing to see two to three cuts this year that would be appropriate. If we dont get any cuts, which is increasingly what the market is worried about, then the market is correct to where worry about Economic Growth and to worry about earnings but we should get two to three cuts what do you see, i mean it not just us, i know maybe people say america first, but it matters what happens in europe, and it matters what happens, i think, in china, and how is that going to play into what does it play into what we should be doing here, mohamed, or really just focus on domestic issues . So, of course, it plays in. Look, chinas deflation and china has a host of problems, and they can be easily tipped into what is a middle income trap, chinas deflation would help us as we import things from there. Our reality is the reality of europe, which is we no longer live in a world where there isnt enough demand, we live in a world where supply is no longer flexible enough and that has to do with lots of things, and it is not going to go away. So our reality is that supply the supply side isnt flexible enough governments arent doing enough to help the supply side. And as a result of that, joe, the last mile, getting to 2 is really, really difficult and we start to get a sense of that from the data. Interesting, mohamed. And for someone who talked about new normals, old normals, i dont know, have you got a new mackenzie term for what we are right now. Are we back to the old normal or new normal 2. 0 what are we . I dont have a term for you, joe. All i tend to stress is always step back and look at the broader picture because unless you understand the second of forces and now it is the supply side that is in control. For a long time it was all about demand and thats why governments and Central Banks threw money at it and we didnt get inflation and it looked like were getting a free ride. When supply is the issue, then Economic Management is actually much harder and thats where we are today. That certainly is what we hear about housing all the time and oil, i think the other things are sort of known and static and what we dont know is how supplies mohamed, i love that backdrop. If you had to guess how many of those books have you cracked open behind you . Cracked open . I would say about 50 to 60 i have to ask, your taco bell, how was it oh, my god. I need to go to confession because i didnt stick to my i took a box home too. I want you to know, i want you to know, this has been the subject of discussion with david gibbs, the ceo of yums, okay so i view this as me honoring a bet that he didnt win, but me saying, look, im an honorable person i ate a box of tacos. You got to meet joe namath in the owners box of the jets. You think thats the same . You chose taco bell i didnt make you choose taco bell. For me, i got the better end of that deal thanks, mohamed. Thank you, joe. All right when we come back, former President Trump and President Joe Biden dominating super tuesday. A source confirming to nbc news that nikki haley will exit the president ial race later this morning. Were going to talk all about it with former House Speaker paul ryan that is next and check out shares of foot locker, tumbling after delivering Quarterly Results the Athletic Shoe retailer beating expectations, but its full year profit outlook came in well below what the street was expecting. That stock right now down by qu7 t 6. 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Dont wait, call and switch today welcome back, everybody. A source confirming to nbc news that nikki haley will exit the republican president ial race after the results of super tuesday. President joe biden and former President Donald Trump dominating that nominating contest, each of them winning hundreds of delegates and moving much closer to clinching their partys nominations. Joining us right now is former House Speaker paul ryan. He is a partner at sole amer capital and vice chair of taneo. Thank you for being here today good morning. Youve been pretty outspoken along the way against former President Trump, even though you served during his administration, you served as House Speaker, went through a lot of these things. Today youve got nikki haley bowing out at least thats the word were getting on this. What does that mean for the race that is to come . Lets wait and see what nikki says she ran a great race first of all, i think i want to commend nikki. She gave people like me, conservatives, a home, she spoke to traditional conservatives in a very compelling way. She advanced our principles and highlighted and defended our principles quite well. But it just wasnt enough. She didnt capture the party. You think she will endorse . I dont know the answer i dont know the answer to that. Would it make a difference to you . No. I make my own mind up. She makes hers but i dont know what nikki is going to do. Im glad she made the race she beat everybody else out in the field, did a good job of representing traditional conservatives. I think trump would be wise to listen to her about what it takes to appeal to traditional conservatives and moderates and centrists, the people who make the difference it is the suburban voter that is going to make the difference in this race. Thats where nikki did really, really well. Thats where she was strongest so i think she represents a cohort of voters in this country that are the swing pivotal voters i think people would be wise to listen to what she has to say. The Biden Administration is hoping to court those very voters thats how they won last time. That would be the swing that makes the difference. The problem for biden, for my perspective, he chased the wrong voters the last three and a half years. He went to the left. He chased the suburban centrists in, say, milwaukee, my old congressional district, they voted for him thinking he would be a moderate. Thats not what he was on all of the issues stack up the issues, other than maybe life, i think seven out of ten issues, top ten issues, stack up for republicans and it is because biden gave the issues away to the hard left. Thats a mistake he made i think theyre ruining that day right now. What do you think nikki haleys calculus should be right now in terms of what she tries to do. Should she try to get back in the fold should she be the next liz cheney and go on cable tv for the last thing i want to do is on tv tell her what she should do. For her political future, what do you think is right for her . Be true to herself and speak to her values and dont endorse donald trump . I dont know what shes going to do. Do what feels right for her, her conscience, her gut. Who cares about your political future when you start making all the calculations about your political future, thats when you start making bad decisions in my opinion. At this stage of the game real world decisions too but real world decisions matter and your conscience matters and maybe she i dont know what shes going to do. The last thing i want to do is tell her what to do, no offense, joe, through television. Thats fair we are still many, many months away, i think somebody said yesterday 35 weeks away from the president ial election. The longest probably in history. I would argue that election fatigue is already here for a large portion of americans im in that 70 camp who doesnt want either of these guys as the nominee. Since this is a policybased show, my biggest concern is well probably have a debt crisis under the watch of the next president during the next presidency once were done cutting rates, all of these sovereigns out there, all these first world countries that have the same problems we have, baby boomers and unfunded entitlements, theyre all bringing debt to the markets. And it is not inconceivable we could have an option failure after done cutting rates and then what. The question in my mind is, what is the next person going to do both of these guys are campaigning against doing anything about this. And that really bothers me, makes me really worried. We had a bad precedent too. Seems like were getting away with it. Yes m t and all this stuff we just push the string. When did Pete Peterson and david walker, that was 20 years ago. I was passing budgets Nothing Happened bad, though. I passed budget backs in those days to balance the budget, pay off the debt, means test, change the age retirement age all those things. We all survived politically and lived another day, but nobody everybody said, this isnt a big problem. This crisis stock market at the all time highs, Interest Rates are we got 34 trillion in debt in the gdp is growing at, you know, what no one thought. This is another one point on Interest Rates gives us 30 trillion over ten years of debt. It is really insane stuff. Do you hope jay powell is saying rate cuts are coming or im in the higher for longer category im in the higher for longer category, get this thing under control. No cuts at all. No, data driven, i agree with the data driven team i think my worry is theyll probably cut at the end and look political. They have to worry about their independence, i think, they, the fed. I think talking about the regulations, they got to worry about looking at their independence, they have to getting from 8 to 4 inflation is easier than getting from 4 to 2 . They need to make sure they exhaust this to make sure they have inflation under control what worries me is if we have the specter of a debt crisis possibly on our medium term horizon, what can you do now and there are a couple of Things Congress could do that theyre discussing like a Debt Commission get a Debt Commission form get it in place. Had one of those. That was not a statutory i was on simpson bowles. You can do Debt Commissions in a way, like the greenspan Social Security commission where it is statutory, where congress has to vote on it, cant avoid it, and you can set one of those up now so they produce an outcome, a product in 2025. You can pass stable coin legislation so you can get the dollar more deeply embedded in the global Monetary System as we digitize, create more demand for our bonds, more buyers for our bonds, like stable coins do. There are a few things in the ether on the table that congress could do today to try and prepare for this moment. Particularly given that both of these people who are running for president are campaigning against doing anything about this so somebody in congress should do something about this. You see what congress can and cant get done at this point what are the odds that any of this stuff gets picked up. In the mix of decisions theyll be in the next two weeks, they have the first six bills coming to the floor this week thats good. I think mike johnson deserves credit for getting this to the floor. I think theyre going to get ukraine done it may be ugly, theyre going to get it done and then they have to do the rest of the appropriation bills and thats the last thing leaving the station. Done by march 22nd, right they might. A week or so thats possible. But in that discussion are these things people are a lot of people, it is bipartisan, pushing the Debt Commission. I think manchin and mitt and others kicked it out of committee. What im looking for is are there policy things you can do today to prepare the country for what is likely to happen, which is some real problems and what bothers me back to president ial, is none of these guys are going to do a damn thing about it. There is an election for the house, and for the senate too. And manchin and sinema are both gone so it matters, the makeup of the house and the senate, the filibuster could be gone at this point. Well, i feel pretty confident well win the senate trump tried to kill the filibuster when he was president. I was there in those days. The filibuster does a lot more good than harm in my opinion youve got to keep it, i think because we will win thesenate, i feel pretty confident we republicans will win it, well keep the filibuster, but youre exactly right, we were this close because of joe and kyrsten of losing the filibuster and you basically have another Legislature Like the house, which is pure majoritarian and more like a parliamentary system which swings all over the place. The reason i think america is so free and prosperous and have done so well and had a limited government is in many parts because of our design, which is different than a parliamentary system two legislatures, separate but equal, divided branches of government, that design has kept us who we are. And if we trade that design in for a run of the mill populous parliamentary, were no different than other countries that are in much worse shape than we are. What are you watching in the senate adam schiff, you cant beat him. Steve garvey made it. I know, but thats california thats not among the im afraid to hope. I feel good about West Virginia and montana. For me to take, you know, be happy about steve garvey, it is very the forearms of his, i saw him, he was great. I saw him in an interview the other night. Hes great reminded me of Ronald Reagan. I think larry hogan will give a good race. I think we got a great candidate in nevada. Bernie marimarino, i think hele the nomination i feel good about there is five states out there. Th i think Dave Mccormick is running a spectacular race i think Dave Mccormick is a spectacular too bad he wasnt the nominee last time. What do you advise ceos right now . Thats a good question. What are you telling this em . We talk to ceos, prepare for the two different administrations that are in front of you you know what the Biden Administration is going to look like, more of the same, and think about what the Trump Administration is going to look like i think on a whole on trade, it is different, it is different posture than what we have now. On m a, it is a different posture than what we have now. Youre not going to have lina khan or gary gensler the regulations the high profile deals, the big tech deals, if youre in that high profile disfavoring category and gaze to the horizon, yeah, if youre below that and in industries that dont have anything to do with that, youll be fine. It could be something totally different that is behind decisions. It could be personal this is no rhyme or reason or rationale to narcissism. What about trade . How does the trade picture change the one thing i think he really sincerely believes in is mercantilism, i dont think he sees positive sum gains, winwin situations as a supply sider, life in economics is dynamic, it is positive, there are winwin situations i do dont think he looks at life like that. I think hes serious about a 10 across the board tariff, serious about china, im one of these Old School Guys who thinks we should have done tpp i think tpp would have been one of best china policies we could have had. 80 of some of the policies when he was president , what is your percentage for the policies that joe biden youre going none. Zero on ukraine, i think joe biden his Foreign Policy with respect to disaster in afghanistan but domestic policy youre going to hear the same old, same old tomorrow night about corporation. Yeah, biden will probably chase it again tomorrow and have a few nods of moving to the middle it is too late his policies are baked in. The border is a mess inflation is out of control. Regulations are just repressive. And these regulators are kicking out more you got the border. Biden, he reaps what he sows. You think im not convinced. I think hell get reelected i wasnt making a projection. Im saying people the reason hes doing so badly in the polls in addition to his age is because of his policies. He wasnt the centrist that picked people thought and wanted he would be. Nikki haley, i wish i wish she was our nominee. You know why i think she would be better as a president than any of these people, but second because she beats biden like by 16 points in National Polls so it shows you there is a thirst and hunger out there. Youre not making a prediction about what happens . No, this thing is going to nothing is linear in politics. Nikki haley is not going to happen it is what it is. It is what it is. Get with the program. Paul ryan, thank you, for coming in today. Good to see you. To sgood to see you as well. The futures right now are down from yesterday jay powell still set to speak. Well be right back. Announcer time now for todays aflac trivia question. What university is known as the harvard of the west . The answer when squawk box rern tus. Oh, charades okay love it umm. First word. Tonsillitis nostril uhuh. Bill uhhuh. Hiphop limping mmhmm medical bills uhhuh pancakes cash who pays you cash when you have medical bills . Grrr no idea. [tapping] gap the gap left by Health Insurance . Who pays cash to help close that gap . Aflac oh, aflac get help with expenses Health Insurance doesnt cover at aflac. Com pictionary . this is our future, ma. Godaddy airo. Creates a logo, website, even social posts. In minutes how . A. I. impressed ay i like it who wants to come see the future . get your Business Online in minutes with godaddy airo theyre waiting for you. Hey, do you have a second . Theyre all expecting more. More efficiency. More benefits. More growth. 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I mean its disturbing, but its awesome. Announcer and now the answer to todays aflac trivia question which university is known as the harvard of the west . The answer, stanford university. All right, welcome back to squawk box. Im dominic chu with your stocks to watch this morning. Well start things off with a check on one of the most popular stocks amongst our cnbc viewing and listening audience and thats tesla the electric vehicle giant is up just roughly about a quarter percent or so on half a million shares of Trading Volume premarket. Shares have seen a steeper drop over the last couple of days on news catalysts from mostly abroad new this morning, adam jonas at Morgan Stanley is cutting the price target on tesla to 320 bucks. It was 345 before they maintain the overweight rating it is due in part to a reduction in their earnings projections given continued demand deceleration and fleet reductions in evs as well as more demand for hybrid vehicles, so those shares up, try to bounce back from two days of losses next up, shares of target moving between marginal gains and losses premarket north of 50,000 shares of volume, following up on yesterdays 12 gain, tied to a more robust earnings report. In the wake of that report, analysts at Deutsche Bank and hsbc are both upping shares of the big box retailer, with a bump in the target price to 206. It was 149 they cited things like better customer traffic, profit margin and sales Growth Trends at existing store locations hsbc goes to buy from hold with 195 target price, up from 140. They cited things like better earnings momentum ahead and more comfort around management Growth Strategy and full year guidance numbers. Those shares just about flat on the session right now. Well tap things off with another retail mover, Department Store chain nordstrom, down just about 10 , roughly 20,000 shares of volume. It did report better quarterly profit and revenues than expectations after last nights close. That was driven in part by a better Holiday Shopping season stronger demand for things like Running Shoes and beauty products, but it gave a more disappointing full year revenue and profit number. Nordstroms chief Financial Officer kathy smith said they continue to see a more cautious consumer when it comes to discretionary buying, given higher Interest Rates and inflation. So, becky, nordstrom down big, ill send things back over to you. Dom, thank you very much. Dom chu. When we come back, investors have been hitting the brakes on teslas stock since the beginning of the year. Well talk about the companys latest issues and what it will take to turn that stock around thats next. Quk xilbeig back. Announcer stocks to watch is sponsored by voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. Like your Workplace Benefits and retirement savings. Voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing across all your benefits and savings options. So you can feel confident in your financial choices. They really know how to put two and two together. Voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. Tesla stock has taken a hit so far this year, down 27 there has been a series of issues from stock analysts, downgrades, stock downgrades, a dip in shipments in china and arson attack on teslas plant in berlin joining us now is tim higgins, wall street journal reporter and cnbc contributor tim, good to see you not like not like we hear great things about the entire ev market every day either, tim yeah. Absolutely it is a tough place to be playing. But for tesla, it is all theyre playing with, right . And the underlying story for tesla has been an incredible rapid growth of the last few years. And now elon and team are suggesting it is going to be much slower this year, and all of these signs in the last few weeks and months are really making it even more worrisome how slow that growth is going to be one of the remarkable things about tesla is if you look over the last three years, for example, the First Quarter has shown growth that has been better than the fourth quarter, which is rather remarkable who wants to go by a new car in winter kick the tires, right . That underscores how much growth there has been and now there is real concern this quarter wont be as good as last quarter and thats worrisome to some people do you think some of mandates that we have had from the Biden Administration, do they get pushed back and does that matter to tesla is tesla dependent on i know that certainly subsidies help, but on the mandates that get to a certain place by 2030, if that gets pushed back, would that hurt tesla the tax breaks that have been passed certainly helped make these cars more affordable for tesla. We have seen them expand, so tesla has them again without a doubt that helps as elon fights to get every penny of cost that he can out of those vehicles but he is arguing in the past hes not dependent upon these sorts of things, his goal at tesla is to make a vehicle that is cooler, is better than a gas car and that that will be what appeals to people and drives that ev transition and a in a lot of ways that has been true for tesla. It is the other competitors who really seem to be struggling to make an offering that can compete with tesla people want a tesla, maybe not necessarily an ev. Does the general malaise in it has been pretty staggering to watch, how quickly things can change, with the whole perception of evs, but the infrastructure buildout, thats going to happen no matter what if people sour a little bit, demand is not there for evs, they build the charging stations, right . Right we have seen huge investments by the automakers other than tesla and theyre pulling back some of the speed of that. Were seeing the investment going to chargers. The charging network, it perhaps is one of the most important thing to kind of pushing forward that adoption when you talk to consumers like i do, you hear that concern about hey, where am i going to charge this thing on my road trip to see grandma. Even though for most people, charging at home is probably the best route, not everybody lives at a place where they can charge this is one of the big kind of chicken or egg issues we see out there. You probably saw andrews deal book interview where i dont think elon really worries about what people think of him certainly doesnt worry about what bob iger thinks of him. You probably saw that. So, what can you tell me, as a New York Times reporter, what do you know about elon musk meeting at maralago with former President Trump it would be a natural partnership. We have seen the evolution of elon musk since taking over twitter, since, you know, this idea that hes against the idea of the woke mind virus, the idea of being overly politically correct, over liberal leaning and you saw really last may or so kind of his moving more and more into politics, almost trying to be a ring master, if you will, and that kind of road to the white ouse, whether it was welcoming the Desantis Campaign into the big fight, or posting other candidates on his platform as we have seen the field narrow to trump. If youre like elon musk and clearly hes voiced opposition to biden, trump would be the pragmatic choice at this point and the question would be, you know what can they both get out of it for each other theyre both very transactional. Elon has a lot of business with the government and trump, you know, could use probably some allies in that fight on the social media world where elon can kind of amplify all of these kind of thoughts and political messages. They both have been known to tweet first and ask questions later. Absolutely. Absolutely here are two men who have really mastered the art of the tweet. Embracing populism in a way that is wacky, you know, both of them, you know, it is weird. Maybe more similarities than differences. And that union thing, not inviting elon to the i mean, the idea that you dont invite the biggest ev maker, transformative ev maker to an ev, you know, symposium, it is ridiculous tim, thank you thank you all right, when we come back, the dartmouth Mens Basketball Team voted to unionize, taking an unprecedented step toward forming the first ever labor union for College Athletes well talk about how the move could change college sports, which already has been changed so much by nil squawk box will be right back. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Your brain is an amazing thing. But as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. Thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. The secret is an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve memory. Prevagen. At stores everywhere without a prescription. Welcome back, everybody. Dartmouth Mens Basketball Team voted 132 in favor of becoming the first ever labor union for College Athletics. This could shake up the motto which only allows them to finally benefit through name, image and likeness joining us to talk about the potential ramifications of the unionization is ben port now, sports Business College Sports Reporter this is kind of amazing, because College Athletics have changed so much since nil was allowed in, since the players started making money what are the potential ramifications of this unionization vote . Yeah, i think the big thing here is first of all, look, this is a monumental moment for College Athletics, right nothing super similar tothis happened as far as actually getting a union vote together and piecing together something this sort of distinct. Now, there has been 2014, yeah, northwestern. Right northwestern piece is part of it but nothing has gotten this public, i should say, at least this far down the line, this official i think the important piece with this is that dartmouth, it is a private school, the ivy league is made up of very similar schools, i think the impact youll see with this case, specifically, is on the sort of ivy league, the private schools, at least in the interim, right now, that said, i think this also can be a precursor to a couple of other things that are making their way through the co courts that i think will have a larger ramification as far as some of the power five and high major schools. This is the first step in seeing more widespread deployment in College Athletics. It has been trending that way for a long time, but this is the first big step and first distinct step that we have seen at least in the last kind of year i mean, ivy leagues are interesting in particular because they dont even offer scholarships to the students who play on these teams. What would happen if this goes forward, because the courts have been pretty friendly to the athletes and all of these cases that have made it. Yeah, i think thats an important distinction here, right . You look at Ivy League Schools frankly thats the concern for a lot of administrators, at least at the Ivy League Level and division two, Division Three level, where you might see a lot of the ramifications of this unionization and this case sort of play out. And i think that the reality is, and dartmouth argued this yesterday, in its appeal that it filed now and this will weave its way through the courts, but is that the dartmouth Mens Basketball Team loses hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and i think thats not necessarily unique in College Athletics at that level. And i think there is a lot of schools that say, if our athletes are employees, if we have to pay College Athletes, especially, yeah, at the d2, d3 level, there are a lot of schools that cant afford it and that becomes a bigger issue as far as what does athletics at that level look like now again, were talking about they would shut down the programs if they were allowed to unionize i think the no one wants to shut down programs, but you could see more widespread things like club sports, do schools end up offering less sports . The d1 minimum now is 14 do division one schools start sponsoring, what is it, four, five, six sports instead of 22 or places like stanford that have more than 30. I think it depends and i think were still aways from getting an exact ruling there, getting an exact idea of what that may look like. I think d2, d3 level, it is a huge, huge problem for schools again that are sponsoring sports not necessarily that are making not making the money that you talk about when we talk about High Division one sports changed so much with the likeness. Some players can make a couple hundred thousand and others who get nothing. Its been strange and interesting thing to watch you think theres going to be more equity that eventually works its way into d1, d2 . I think the market will sort out on some level. Right ask this is a new industry, for lack of a better term i think when you look at that and look at what nil has been, the market figuring itself out theres been Football Players at the high major level that are making multimillion dollar contracts over the course of their four years in school and i think that if you look at trends in the nfl and things like that, look, quarterbacks make more money than third string offensive linemen. Whether things are equal across the board. Not the case i think youll see, again, market will start to figure itself out and when you have a combination of and confluence and mess we fear like its grown into a little chaos in recent years. Ben, thank you. Ben portnoy. Coming up, nikki haley apparently is going to drop out of the president ial election at 10 00 a. M. Expected to speak. Thats eastern time. This morning more on that up next, openai publicly responded to a lawsuit brought by cofounder elon musk. Well be right back. Er legs on rude. 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From professional certifications, to job training, to help navigating programs and services, we give veterans access to support from anywhere in the world. Welcome back, everyone openai publicly responded to a lawsuit brought by cofounder elon musk reproducing old email from musk in which the tesla ceo encouraged the startup to raise at least 1 billion in funding and agreed it should start being less open and not share the companys science with the public. One email from 2018 musk wrote that openai had no chance becoming a rogue without meaningful changes those emails are at odds with musks lawsuit filing last week in which he accused the company and ceo of sam altman deviating by deeping inner workings a secret from commercial purposes. Steve kovac is here kwijoining s with all of this some redacted. I dont know about comment from either musk or others. I emailed musks lawyer by the way, not alex this time, another guy. Telling he wants a different lawyer this time by the way, emails with emoticon with an x, signed his emails that way i dont know what it means sour grapes, elon musk missed out on the openai renaissance, more confirmation to your point a lot is redactive we dont know who wrote some of these emails but we know the content of the emails in large part and also know that elon musk in many cases here just agrees yes, need to be a forprofit entity also tried to bring it into tesla. I mean, this all wreaks of musk looking at, in hindsight, six, seven years ago saying, i totally missed it. Weird we had Walter Isaacson joins us yesterday to talk about this he said he was there when musk was going through this embedded this for a while and going through the issues walters point was, i think, that elon was offered shares by altman when he was there to say, okay what do you want what do you want to make this better shares in this elon said, no. Pe wanted full control. Clear from the emails wanted to take it over, absorb it into tesla and a counterweight, the word they used, like what google was working on at the time thought they were still behind. Interesting. Why i wonder if they dismiss the lawsuit now or drop it my question to his lawyers well find out. Oh. His lawyer didnt respond . Yeah. Like 4 00 a. M. There, whatever time it was. Thank you, steve. Coming up, private pay roll data from adt. And for republanic, see what ro khanna take is on all this well be right back. And more. Thank you very much. [applause] ask, now what . Heres what. You go with prudential to protect, empower and grow. With everything you need to deliver, you guessed it. More. One more thing. Whos your rock . Learn more at prudential. Com wealthchanging question are you keeping as much of your investment gains as possible . High taxes can erode returns quickly, so you need a taxoptimized portfolio. At creative planning, our Money Managers and specialists Work Together to make sure your portfolio and wealth are managed in a taxefficient manner. Its what you keep that really matters. Why not give your wealth a second look . Book your free meeting today at creativeplanning. Com. Creative planning a richer way to wealth. Breaking nbc news, nikki haley suspending her campaign for president later this morning leaven donald trump as the apparent gop nominee. Meanwhile, openai clapping back at elon musk. Producing years old emails trying to highlight apparent hypocrisy after musk sued the computing pioneer last week. And ahead of fridays big knobs number february adt employment. Could be big big news, but may not be probably big recently. Every month. Data and the Market Reaction on the way final hour of squawk box begins right now. Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to squawk box right here on cnbc live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Im billiken along with jim cramer andrew is off today. Take a look whats happening with u. S. Equity futures this hour you see now there are still green air roe arrows s p up by 23 and nasdaq up by 150. Treasury yields this morning looking at green in the yields, at least ten year now yielding 4. 149 two year flat at 4. 55 again, got big numbers coming this week. Not just the jay powell testimony today and tomorrow but the jobs number on friday. For more on the markets over to mike santoli. I dont know, mike im worried that tech is being a little under the weather what are you watching this morning . No doubt, joe definitely a bit of a shakeout in some of the biggest winners in tech. The markets trying to treat it as an excuse for rotation. Banks strong yesterday consumer stocks strong, but look at the overall s p 500 trend goes back to september of 2022 captures the bear market low and then the upturn. Really not much to speak of yet. Yeah, a little shakeout. Less than 2 from highs. Also the markets starting to get a little arhythmic, i think in recent days means some of the heavier weights are pressuring the indexes and causing a little bit of the sort of high velocity speculative stuff to get caught up in it, but if you want to talk about ultimate trend. Sort of contending with this area talking about it for weeks 50 50 where the line was taking us see about digesting it going one direct one way or the other. Havent had a 3 pullback since october. Momentum etfs. Subset of large s p 500 stocks exhibiting greatest. See a lot of nothing then a huge ramp more than 20 of this what you would expect really, nvidia, meta, broadcam eli lilly up a quarter of this etf. Saw it roll a little bit and the locust of where we have a payback or reftrest, its proba these type of stocks and splintering of former magnificent seven. Tesla obviously rolled over. Apple a big weight and alphabet. Look at apple versus microsoft this takes you back to right before the covid crash so february of 2020. Very similar performance point to point you see over the last year, apple is underperforming microsoft by, you know, massive percentage like 40 Percentage Points and the s p by quite a bit 15 drawdown that said, apple really built up a huge lead over the pandemic and so its really just giving back some of that out performance. I would say, too, apple is looking more oversold now than it has in the last couple years. See if that has bearing on how people shshuffle around the big wigs. Exactly same percentage from march of 2020 . Amazing. Sometimes you can work magic with your start date and try to get it to where yeah. Like Global Temperatures thats deafening how that worked let me ask you something we got some data points, mike. So we got powell, we got fridays jobs number is oil headed to what is going to be the next flashpoint, do you think, for the market interesting i think sort of have to Pay Attention to oil and gasoline more specifically, because wholesale gasoline picked up gotten all the help maybe from commodities in terms of disinflation i found interesting yesterday was that the softness in Services Index and durable goods. Bond market was sensitive to weaker than expected numbers yields came down were going to firm up today i think that we are still in this mode of trying to figure out if the economy is going to decelerate enough to open the window for the fed to cut, too right now market thinks were getting probably a cut, more than likely, in june powell will have bearing on that today. Its interesting to me that the market wants to look through the potential nearterm inflationary signals and say were still on course to get down towards 2 maybe the economy is going to be slowing up for the fed to ease too. Whether thats right or wrong to me, thats how the market is sizing things up Pay Attention to 8 30 friday. We got adt today might be interesting, too. Thanks, mike. Yeah. For more on the markets where hes finding vaught now we bring in ed cole head of multistrategy equities at mangrove ed, basically you look at this and say momentum is going to roll on . Why do you get to that i think im not a contrarian and often have to try to restrain that contrarian tendency i guess im acutely aware that the the current stocks of the fed, always come its back to t fed seems to be they are inclined to cut. We know that with price my read on the economy its pretty warm and what the fed is telling you and what Christopher Wallace told us a couple weeks ago. That theyre not concerned about the level of the stock market to begin their cutting cycle. If they carry through with those cuts, then i think theyre imp implying happy tt blowing a bubble if thats so what we can see previous take where is bubbling takes place crosscounter leadership in market runs and runs and runs. I looked at numbers that go back to the 1920s data market leadership and thats the winners versus losers if you look at how those, this leadership worked in the dotcom period on a fiveyear basis, smoothing out volatility running in the midteens end of january, zero five years. You know, im not saying its going to happen. I guess the point is that its what the fed if its what they continue to imply, continues to guide us towards, the happy, that the economy is in a reasonable place rates restricted i have questions whether they really are. You dont think rates of restrictive right now . Look, i guess the liquidity angle anded there a labor market angle. Right . This week incredibly interesting. Jobs front and liquidity second. Look at where we are on payroll today. We understand january was a bit of a funny number but smoother you end up with about 220,000 job creation monthly over the last six months. Thats a lot consistent with unemployment probably closer to 3 than 3. 7 where we are today carry that on, get through seasonality and carry it on 200,000 monthly job creation i think we can find the labor market looks in that key measure of unemployment like its finding it again makes for slightly uncomfortable thinking on the feds part at a time in december, being clear they feel like the bar to hiking has gone up. Would it be a huge shock to you, then if powell were to Say Something today or tomorrow that indicated that a rate cuts further off than people were thinking my guess is, im no rigor of u. S. Politics. Signing up telling you about politics is the last thing you want to hear i think theres a political aspect to these testimonies obviously. As a Market Participant i expect him to be very measured. Hes good at this and will probably stress interdependency, so far disinflation lets not forget, core pce is running on a annual basis 2. 5 pretty good. A bit of push, a bit of pull a bit of tightness in the labor market yesterday component was weak signs things are weakening jobs today, may well show continuing loosening in labor. If youre right, your thesis is right telling people, game on stick with the win, seen to this point . I guess im considering it seriously as a possibility i think that lets think about what bubbles are first thing to say, this plays into the liquidity part. Definitely theres speculative global and u. S. Markets today suggesting liquidity is profound right . A fed Balance Sheet that is huge other central bank Balance Sheet in the world huge. Feels like were in an abundant liquidity environment and crypto suggesting thats back on and gold suggesting republicans rates a bit low. If you think, then, about think then about, about actual bubbles. I mean, today the u. S. Markets, no expenses. The tech companies, you know, leaders, dont look worldly expensive by any means at all. The thing that probably to me suggests beginning of sort of truly, truly exuberance, where you look at longterm Earnings Growth expectations for the tech sector a brilliant measure to see for consensus earnings expectations looks three to five years out. Right . Three to five year annualize growth in expectations for earning. Today u. S. I. T. Sector running 25 annualized growth. Only ever higher in the dotcom period. Wow. Thats beginning of basically the analysts starting to say theres a thing going on that is so allin kencompassing for seeg unbelievable growth. Thank you for coming in. A lot to it is. Profound thank you. Coming up, breaking Economic Data jobs adp. Xtrsthrnt numbe, eye ne well be right back. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. Well, when at t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. We mean it. Amazing. All my agents want it. Says here. inviting pool. Come on over too inviting. Only at t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. Get iphone 15 pro on us. the future is not just going to happen. You have to make it. And if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. The all new godaddy airo. Put your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. Futures ahead of februarys adt employment report are solid. Pretty strong. And here it is 8 15 east coast. Adt report gaining 140,000 jobs. Expectations for 150,000. Total private payrolls up 140k just said, estimate 1950 good nonfarm payroll estimate plus 198. And january adp revised up slightly from 107k to 111k as far as Small Businesses, plus 13k medium plus 69k and large up 61k. Leisure hospitality, also was, you can see think up 41k construction, trade, financial activities education and health services, across the board for more on the new adp report lets bring in adp chief economist nela richardson. I am just going to assume that every number i just mentioned you could repeat even if you didnt look down, at notes so i know you know better than anyone what is significant here to talk about. So lay it on me. Hey, joe. I think there are Significant Developments in the labor market and actually think the headline number is solid, but whats underneath the hood of these numbers is fascinating start with the small, large firm divide actually saw pickup in hiring in large firms especially manufacturing, which weak better parse of a year. Saw growth with large firms. Not the smaller firms. Then we saw some growth in education and health that tells me the largest players in the economy are still hiring like theres growth i think the second thing, though, to keep in mind is that the pay increases were seeing showed a bit of a shift last month. Theyve been coming down for job fairs, 5. 1 with the year over year change but bumped up a little bit for job changers. That shows the labor market is still dynamic where you can still get a little pay bump from switching jobs first time seen an increase in that number since 2022 still a market thats solid and hiring at least in pockets interesting to see how the numbers develop over the course of the year. Im not feeling the cuts. Im not feeling cutting rates on what you just told me. In fact, almost sounds like the progress that were still hoping to make as we try to get to 2 maybe it really is true that its going to be much more difficult sledding than down to where we are right now especially if getting a bump in wages again . You know, its a complicated labor market its not an easy story, because at the same time were seeing these solid job games a bigger proportion of these jobs are parttime jobs in fact, research put out a number showing that people are working less that fits with the blf story hourly workers working less per hour now than four years ago before the pandemic. We dont know why. Maybe people are choosing to work less . Maybe companies are indeed hiring more people, but providing less hours just to build that resilience in their bench strength in their head count. But what it means overall is what we saw in the december number that real earnings are going down because hours are going down even though wages are going up so very complicated story for the fed. It will be interesting how powell processes those dynamics in this testimony. Any thing that you see that could be a harbinger for something on friday that shows that maybe we are beginning to see some cracks in the labor market or nothing yet no reason to think that yet . Focused on earnings to me, wages are the most important dynamics in the labor market when it comes to inflation. It really is the bridge from employment to the Federal Reserve cutting story, and if you see another month over month acceleration in pay and in earnings, thats going to be hard to combat with a rate flux. Watching wages more than ever now to see how those develop and whether, one, they stay above inflation growth thats important for the u. S. Growth story, but they dont run too hot to trigger another of bout of inflation. A hairline response to wages to this economy. Okay. Nela, excellent, and this makes friday more, more interesting to wait for, what we like people need to watch, need to tune in. Check your local listings. Nela, thanks see. Thank you take care. When we come back, could europes largest economy will forced to go back to powering itself with russian gas . Brian sullivan joins us on this Critical Energy and geopolitical sue. Squawk box will be right back. Youve been a real rock star. Rock star . What do you know about rock stars . Billy idol . I mean wheres the skintight leather . My shoes are leather. Wheres the unnecessary zippers . That thing billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. Thanks, rory. Ill show you rock star be a finance and hr rock star. Workday. For a changing world. Billy idol just stole your golf cart its been just over two years since russia invaded ukraine spassing massive electricity cost ace cross Europe Germany hit particularly hard and even as energy costs came way down from two years ago, germany still faces a challenging economic environment that has some starting to whisper could germany go back to using cheap russian gas . That would about stunner Brian Sullivan is here with more. I talked with somebody who talked to somebody good morning, by the way high level in the German Government and basically implied when putins gone, war ends, one or both, revisit the north stream and go back to russian gas because theyre environment economic is based on. Thats a big move. Or see how things go economically and whether or not that occurs even absent those things, becky. When your economy is based on income cost of x and input cost is now x times 5, and i want to be clear we were in germany in i remember being there. A couple years ago, in that steel mill and Everything Else thats when Energy Prices were out of control they have come way, way down i want to be clear electricity costs in germany yesterday were 80 per Mega Watt Hour here in the midatlantic and the United States, they were 1. 17. What does that mean they fluctuate. Germanyabout 40, 45 wholesale electricity. Yesterday 80 uk 60. U. S. , midatlantic, taking one day was 17 the idea prices have come way down, sure people say, well, the doom scenarios are over they are, to a point but german natural gas is still 27. Were paying 2. What this gets down to is everybody has principles until those principles are too expressive and maybe reached a poin point its too expensive chemicals aluminum, automaking down, down, down. Gemi germany is an industry powerhouse sad news, kind of a good news story, as german economic output and industrialization decline because they cant afford to be competitive with energy costs, whos going to win United States. The United States. Goodyear, canceling plants in germany. Other tiremakers are i would imagine youll see mercedes, bmw, all new manufacturing probably be here aluminum melting here, because we have lower cost energy. I still come back to what does this mean for ukraine because if you have support that has dwindled in the United States, problems getting funding to go through to send to ukraines if you lose germany, if they are more concerned making sure they can get cheap Energy Supplies to push the industrial agenda and the economic engine probably as a result political ajend sda . Agenda. Dirty secret. Dont say yeah. Name dropping. I always tell people, i know jim cramer surprised. Pulled over on the turnpike, they just let me go. Thats not true. Completely fabricated story russia is selling a ton of gas to europe. Huge quantities of Liquified Natural Gas and making a lot of money from it. Qatar selling a lot. A country called the United States that is selling biggest seller of natural gas. Although putting crimps on that at this point about future production. The pause the pause that refreshes, and some in the administration will say that it wont hurt nearterm exports nap is accurate. Exports, good, true. Exports will double. In the next two years. Regardless of this pause. Absent that, where do we go from here germany needs about 150 ships lng per year 150. Want to go down the climate road, whats better . Giant ships, carbonspewing ships taking liquefied natural gas across the ocean or pipelines . Some very difficult decisions to be made in germany and europe in the next grownup decisions whether or not that country go on as an industrial powerhouse or surrender that role and just be what they are which is a wealthy nation that doesnt make much stuff. Where does it break down . How likely talking about this now, potential for doing it . How likely would you weigh the odds depends what happens with the war, and with the madman in moscow right . I mean, if putin wins, putin will go away at some point. And, again, my source whos talking to be to toplevel german people saying once hes gone, whats the problem maybe just have to help contribute to rebuild it, and go back to that umbilical cord of natural gas, which was exactly remember a guy named gerhard schroeder, joe i talked to him last week is he dead no. And oh, okay. Not a name want to bring up in germany these days. Thats helmut kohl. Who i talked to . How is he doing these days . He is dead. I dont know did biden talk no. Mitteron and helmut kohl. President of mexico. Yeah. I think i see i know whats going on here no flies on you my shows in 11 hours got anything else any good stuff behind the scenes for lng, why it happened no not going there . No. Ill say it, if you want conspiracy theories why not have a little fun. Wait a minute the bds bd would do something because of influence go ahead what is it listen, John Podestas brother a powerful guy, his brother a lobbyist for lng who was what . Lobbying for qatar. Russia benefits no we got to define when you go down the hole, down the rabbit hole. Have some fun right . Do more on this my show. Whats it called fast money. Last call. After fast money. When are you hosting so i can get a day off. Mad money, all the monies. Should be last money. All right breaking news from the fed Steve Liesman joins us with more too late now, steve to get it out . No. Just in time, joe. 30 seconds late. All good fed chair powell before the house will say policy rate is likely at its peak, and dialing back policy for at some point this year. Does not get more specific as to times. He warns progress towards 2 inflation. Been quite a bit not for sure warns of a risk of cutting too early and cutting too late the economys made considerable progress towards the feds objectives of low unemployment as well as bringing down inflation. On the economy, he says expanded at a strong pace and seemingly quoting the last statement inflation, the chairman said, without significant, a significant increase in the unemployment rate, the risks to employment and the inflation goals he says are moving into better balance labor market, he says, remains relatively tight though, again, supply and demand in labor he says are coming into greater balance. Doesnt talk about the banking story thats working across the wires today, joe, but i expect quite a few questions on that thismorning. All right very good, steve we will, we had adp. I should ask you about that. There was wage gains Neil Richardson pointed out, unexpected yeah. Something the fed will be watching, but well see, joe you have productivity surge along with inflation in the 2 , 3 range, those wage begans not out of line. Oh. All right. Thanks, steve. When we come back, fallout from the pain in the commercial Real Estate Market rxrs scott rexler flagging risks to regional banks. Well speak with him next. Ckhtsquawk box will be rig ba. At pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. Our timetested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. Pgim investments. Shaping tomorrow today. A microsoft a. I. Engineer turned whistleblower sending a letter to lina khan and the companys board raising alarms about the designing tool the whistleblower says the tool powered by owepenai technology ignores copyright rules. When engineer plplagued this, he said microsoft didnt appropriately staff up read much more on cnbc. Com right now. Microsoft shares up by about 0. 7 . Trillions of dollars of commercial property loans coming due in the next few years causing big concerns in the financial sector. Our next guest is expecting what he calls a slowmoving train wreck for regional banks joining us right now is scott wreckler, rxr realty and chairman ceo and on the new york fed board of directors great to see you gryou. Good to be here thanks. Youre looking at this. How much is coming due in the loans this year . A trillion dollars of commercial real estate loans coming due this year and obviously last year i talk about a slowmoving train wreck. What happened the train never left the station part of that was lack of acceptance wanting to see if injection of capital maybe lifted all values. Now a recognition thats not happening. Also the bank loan term program put in place a shock absorber and comes in next week. The problems havent been dealt with the challenge. A triple whammy of challenges exacerbated. If you believe Interest Rates higher longer, way down. Right . Higher Interest Rates means the loans done when Interest Rates were low will need refinanced at higher rates at balance same time regulators in on banks very, very focus and commercial real estate exposure trying to reduce that exposure reducing lending creating a credit challenge. And fundamentals a lot of commercial real estate, office, transitioning multifamilies, rentregulate the multifamilies also weigh in on this that has to be dealt with and hasnt been dealt with yet i think 2024 is the year where we begin to actually start addressing that challenge. We know these problems are here its been pretty well telegraphed. We know rates for commercial real estate, Office Buildings in big cities down, what is it . Almost 20 yes across the entire sector. Yes. Looking at these problems and know theyre there the question i think becomes, how do we deal with it is the solution that there will be buyers at lower prices who will come in or is there some sort of either government help or fed help in the form of lower rates or other loans that go out . I think the first way to deal with it, there has to be acknowledgement values are off some of the bigger banks over this past year have been taking significant amount of reserves positions them to openly start reducing their loans and taking reserves and then ultimately selling them at the right price. There has not been enough transaction activity to crystallize what pricing is. Once transaction market is tough right market to market is questionable a lot of banks, have they really brought down marks, values, where they will ultimately trade in an ill liquid market today . That will term how this will ultimately be. Its not the big banks right . You hear regulators and fed, treasury talk about snis systemically concerns. Big banks well capitalized even heavy commercial real estate exposure relative to Everything Else they can absorb it the smaller regional banks, heavier concentration dont have the reserves, havent established reserves and now reigh laters are focused on this everyone says exception. An exception when a bank goes back and then nycb this last month and again last week, they have 18 billion of loans on the regulator in new york city multifamily. Right. Whats the mark on that i dont know scott, let me try to understand your perspective on this obviously youre involved in real estate and probably have exposure to some of these things, too. I know last month or i guess january you announced a deal, or a 500 million join venture to buy distressed offices in new york city. You could be somebody who many benefitting from the down side my guess, probably have a lot on the line, too, if Interest Rates dont come down . This is different than 08, where you were can a moment in time people can buy opportunistically and rates go back up. This is much more like the early 90s this will be a more broadly affected more nuanced. Not Just Department has will change people that have conditions to understand where the opportunities are and capabilities to say, okay. These properties will be successful take new york where were investing. If you look at the new york market some segments of the market now are recovering extremely well class a building, weve seen uptick our building postlabor day people coming back to the workplace. Well see 2024, could be at levels in terms of leasing back to where we were precovid, but concentrated in the best buildings. Vacancies are in the worst buildings. Not just macro play say well be able to invest across the board and get an office. A stock pick which are successful you wouldnt buy some of those lower buying into thof the lower or midtier . Only looking for class a right you have to really say, what is the best of the rest what are the best buildings that ultimately will recover . Happening across all commercial real estate painted with the same brush right . Not a dinstinction, good or bad even multifamily side seeing the same thing thats the akchilles heel. Would it benefit fed to lower rates and refinance existing loans you already have better off if they didnt and more distressed stuff out there. Listen, end of the day theres a balance. It obviously longer rates, more distress for the industry and frankly enough in balance now that some level of rates moderating will help ease this transition. These Capital Structures are upsidedown. And need to be reeck kwuatised. Bring it down, create transaction. A guest earlier this morning said look at things like crypto and gold prices and see how much speculation has gone on, thats a suggestion theres plenty of liquidity in the markets now may be areas of the markets that need help. Commercial Real Estate One of the biggest. Federal government could probably use lower rates so theyre Interest Rates dont go up as quickly too, but there are plenty of people who think theres more than enough liquidity in the market and fed shouldnt do anything . Part of the nuance challenge the fed faces. Right . A very uneven economy. Big businesses, Outlook Positive Small Businesses Outlook Negative the affluent consumer is actively spending. You know, a bit more than ever the lowincome people can hardly afford rents, their food and so we have a weird dichotomy but ones pushing growth one is not also the arbitrage some things painted as toxic, like commercial real estate. Mispriced you can find the ones that work. Right interesting time and a tricky time for jay powell. Interesting to see what he has to say. Absolutely. Scott, thank you. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it. When we come back, a state of the Union Preview and a super tuesday postmortem with california congressman ro khanna squawk box will be right back. Fresh, warm hot dogs when im not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. Fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso one for you, one for you. Oh, youre a messy one. Cool, right . So cool. Anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. Hot dogs fresh, warm hot dogs before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Time for jay powell. Khanna my name is sister monica claire. Because of tiktok, ive created a community where people can feel safe asking questions about spirituality. I try to provide a really accessible way of them learning about religion and spirituality, thats not intimidating. Somebody in the comments said, i have no idea how i got on nun talk, but im not mad about it. Im going to teach you how to pray. Im going to teach you how to meditate, how to connect with a higher power, because we need that. We need strength and comfort. Telling nbc news former South Carolina governor nikki haley will suspend her president ial campaign and exit the race later this morning. Leaving donald trump as the apparent gop nominee joining us to talk about the white house, super tuesday and tomorrows state of the union speech from President Biden. Congressman ro khanna of california, district in the heart of silicon valley. She a Biden Campaign surrogate, and so this maybe open as way for the two main candidates, ro, but still talk about a third party, as you know so, i dont know this could be you didnt announce yet, joe. Could be the opening that were looking for but you keep resisting to be at the top of the ticket you want me there. And i dont think thats a good idea for anyone. Joe, im waiting for to you make an announcement i just appreciate my being a democrat that you like that we have a good back and forth. We do. I appreciate our friendship. I know. Glad we have all of these good feelings youre going to get really mad at me for everything im getting ready to say number one, as a surrogate for the president , i think you have a lot of things on your plate. And i know you probably got great answers for everything, but let me talk to you about this New York Times poll and what you think it means. I know polls are not necessarily indicative of, not the endall, beall, but if 40 of voters said that trump policies helped them personally and thats double the number of people that said President Bidens policies helped 43 say bidens policies did the opposite and didnt help why . When you see gdp and the jobs numbers and the stock market, why are people still feeling that way, and i hope youre not going to say because they dont know any better and are being fed the wrong stuff by the media . No. Im not going to say that. I think weve got a better job that we need do on making the economic case. Look, its been a hard few years. I mean no one is going to deny we had three years of up inflation and not like we have disinflation the inflation number has come down, but for three years prices went up. That means your groceries still cost a lot rent costs a lot cost is living is high people still feel the American Dream is hard to reach so weve got to say, well, why is our agenda bet jer three things i point out new factories built in ohio. New chip plants, new battery plants gearing bring manufacturing back number two, were going to reduce costs by making child care cheaper and by making Health Care Cheaper and number three were going to raise wages on the minimum wage. We have to make a contrast to make the case. You know, the other thing, congressman, that i think it just we hear about it again and again. And that is that the number of people that worry about even right now theres some question as to whether the president lost a step from a couple years ago, and you think about what it would be like next year, year after that really four years down the road, and i know you saw the other poll that other poll tha even democrats, people that voted for him, last time, 61 now feel that hes too old to do the job. How do you counter that . Look, no candidate is perfect. I mean, youre not a 49ers fan if you were at the top of the ticket, age is an issue, of course would i rather not have two people running for president who are 81 and 78 . Of course. Thats our choice. And we have to make age an asset. The president needs to say he has the experience, the statesmanship, but heres the most important thing, he has to have at the state of the union lay out a future vision for the country. Here is where america is going here is where you fit into that story. Its about who is going to have a better vision for the future. I had kind of an argument with transportation secretary buttigieg where, you know, were going to hear that its companys fault, its not nothing that government did with inflation, that its price gouging. I know were going to hear that tomorrow night we did in the last state of the union. All the blame is always pushed off somewhere else and in this case its to corporations for raising prices and gouging and i think thats part of why the public just finally rolls their eyes the border, what do you tell me about the border are you going to tell me its republicans fault for not supporting that bill that would have let 5,000 people in, you know, that that wasnt really, you know, an effective probably not as effective as some part people would want, but for three years theres been no attention paid to the border by the Biden Administration i saw your exchange with secretary buttigieg who i like and respect. People are sick of parties blaming each other i dont think they want to hear me come in and say its all the republicans fault they dont want other folks saying its all the president s fault. Theres a problem at the border and you cant deny the facts we know there are a lot of people over the last few years who have been coming in without a process, and we know theres a lot of fentanyl coming in. Someone in my district who lost a collegeaged kid to a fentanyl overdose these are issues what do we need to do . Three common sense things we should do. First, have more Border Patrol agents and have better vetting of drugs coming in number two, make sure youre processing as many people in countries outside america before they come in number three, weve got to figure out the economics weve got these brutal sanctions on venezuela weve got no Economic Policy in a lot of these countries thats leading to some of the migrants coming here. Why cant we just figure out a bipartisan solution . No one looks good. Republicans or democrats, on this issue thats probably true. Have we missed the have we missed a lot of filing deadlines . Maybe its not even possible for us to because im listening to you and you we always seem to find some Common Ground, which i never see that i dont see that in washington anymore. I know you see that cinema is gone, manchin is gone. What is washington going to look like not just for the next eight months, congressman, but the next four years . Do you have an optimistic viewpoint that you can share with me so, you know, i can look forward to that instead of i do. Were still the greatest country in the world weve had donald trump and joe biden and this country managed to have a better economic record than any other country in the world. It managed, despite the polarized situation, to develop vaccines that saved the world. Heres the reality i am a progressive democrat. Im clearly to your left but more to the left than some of the folks you mentioned, but i think the American People want folks to respect each other, stop coming on television and casting blame, you know, everything the democrats do is right and everything the republicans do is wrong. Try to listen and find compromise and Common Ground its more about temperament and putting the Country First in ideology. You believe this guy . Yeah, i do. I dont think i could argue with you if i tried. Congressman. Maybe thats why were still going back and forth just arguing who is on we cant be co didnt work well in rome or citigroup. You have to be at the top, joe. You want joro. Youll carry the midwest. Thats the key. Exactly exactly. Salt of the earth. You got the coasts you got the coasts we got it. All right. Thank you, congressman lets check it out. Says here it gets plenty of light. And this must be the ocean view . Of aruba . Huh. This listing is misleading. 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Billy idol just stole your golf cart join us to talk markets as we approach the opening bell on wall street, brenda vangelo at sand hill Global Advisers and cnbc contributor you saw adp, waiting for jobs and powell, brenda yeah. I think the jobs number is going to be important, and the next week is also going to be really important when we get more of the inflation data that i think weve been waiting for with cpi and ppi. But i think in general, we dont expect to hear a lot of different speak from the fed were still in an environment where the economy is quite healthy, and we think that rate cuts are probably not coming until june, at the very earliest, and possibly even later than that. In general, the market is off to an incredible start this year, so around the edges we are trimming a little bit of exposure here when we started the year we assumed we would get a return that was probably in line with what corporate Earnings Growth looks like for the s p 500 this year, and those projections are around the low double digits. Were already 60 of the way there and its barely march. We think its a year that will be important to be disciplined. Brenda, is tech a buy here . Will the leadership, will it reas reassert itself doour you thinkr are we seeing broadening out of the magnificent whatever you want to say, five, six or seven . Yeah. I think its been refreshing to see that there has been more broad participation over the last several weeks, but when we look at really whats driving corporate earnings, theres no doubt that a lot of those large Cap Tech Companies are and its top line growth in addition to this focus now on more profitability, where weve just seen some really surprising results, you know, ill call out meta, for example, where Profit Margins were 7 better than expected during the fourth quarter. There really is a powerful earnings story there for many of those companies, and i dont think thats going away. But i do think as the year goes on, we would expect to see more of a broadening in participation, especially once rates actually start coming down and we think areas like small and mid cap stocks are poised to do well in that sort of environment. Assuming that economy remains relatively healthy. Okay. Perfect time to end it since i have no time, brenda we appreciate your insight and thoughts this morning. We got five, four, three, two. Make sure you join us tomorrow squawk on the street is next good wednesday morning welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the New York Stock Exchange equity looking for bunes after the biggest pull back in three weeks. Powell is on the hill and will reiterate cuts are some time this year, 10year 4. 12. Fed expectations futures point to the bounce as investors seek new rate cut clues from the chair on capitol hill today. Tech troubles apple is seeing what is its worst twoda