Transcripts For CNBC Mad 20240703

A dangerous world that could blow apart at any moment . An uptick in the 10 year treasury. I think it is the latter. When Interest Rates went up, they plunge. Rates went lower and stocks were terrible. It was 9. 1 and 7 . The nasdaq advanced for. 2 7 . People can understand the problem with geopolitical turmoil. Israeli Defense Forces rating gaza. All times. They are budgeting outof control but we dont have a speaker of the house. If i tell you why they pulled back from their highs today, you might laugh. There is a guy, billionaire. He covered the short sale of bonds because there is too much risk in the world to have bonds. There was a tweet that moved the multitrillion dollar bond market. Tons of investments by stocks. Think of all the absurdity of all this. There is a lack of demand. The market is saturated with them. That is how they borrow money, uncle sam is borrowing like crazy. It is supply and overwhelming demand. The amount against treasuries is a record high. Shortsellers think, how do you miss . He triggered todays temporary bout, there are too many issues by the treasury. You could get smoked if you are shorting bonds on something really bad happens. You can do that. As for the economy, growing more slowly than we think. There is no evidence of that. Consumer behavior when it comes to travel and leisure. Rates need to stay higher for longer. There is no meaningful slowdown. The fear of being caught short in treasuries makes sense. We do get some data, somewhere, anywhere, there will be buyers servicing. Look at the insanity. Interest rates have been soaring because of buys. That could change if we get more explosive in the middle east. This is a short position. They will play it safe. The stocks are linked to bonds. The market rallies on speculation that the economy is weekend wars in the air. Not typical wartime winners. Those stocks will be going down. The economy is weak. If you think it is going to get week. You are supposed to bet against those kinds of stocks. Airbnb, carnival, rebounding, they should all be repealed in that scenario. They very well might be. Not if the economy is going to show its true pattern and colors. These stocks will be the ones to bet against. Tech, which was so strong, those will go long because they are about to report. But they are moving up again. There is a lack of volume. What the real truth here . Okay, we have two cores in this market. Rates are pulling back. It is still strictly in control. Ive been warning you that the 30 year treasury is going down and up and yield. That will not stop until the 30 yield can go past that number. That is why i say the 30 year going from 5 to 6 . Not the end of the world. If we get a reprieve like we saw today, it is going down a little bit. A proxy for bonds, utility stocks, they fell hard today. You expect them to go up when buying yields are going down. The yield went down. Wall street is not taking the by action seriously. Why . It might be aided by a pullback. It is going higher. The price of crude going lower sense rates lowers. If you truly break it down and every bands again, once again then he takes over and rates go higher. Today is a needed respite. All we have again tomorrow . In my have the rates to the highest level since 2006 which you hear about constantly. It will continue until those rates are higher. I do not see this stopping until we get there. It is a rational expectation. It comes off as shocking. Somehow, there is a long range jump. This is the end. The long rates peak when they exceed short rates. Rates will keep going higher until they stop going higher. Can the action stocks be wrong . What do we do with recovery in those rates . In truth, there is nothing real about any of this. Back and forth nonsense that people focus on because it is easy to make big picture bets. Pitting them against stocks. It is easy for them to this is all meaningless. What should matter to you is how individual companies are doing. Nothing that is in actual fact about what stocks are going to do. When we get earnings in, you are the bottom of the stock language that has plagued us for many months. Here is what you should be thinking about. Did bill move your stocks with that heartfelt tweet . The higher Interest Rates with tensions will become the least donna made again. There are numbers there stocks will go lower regardless of what anyone says, they give you a bad forecast, the stocks will go lower. It is destructive to most of the stock market. Better than expected earnings and a Better Future forecast keeping your stocks from going forward. What can i say . You have to hope that every billionaire will tweet the same thing every day. Good luck. Bottom line, it is very challenging. Incredible conviction or oval sold markets. Or both to make it worthwhile. That can happen. I dont think we are there yet. I recommend something that is out war right boring. Trey in texas. Trey. Jim, i work on wall street. I wanted to say those words. And now i own a small hotdog stand away from the exchange. Jumbo all beef monday through friday. Costco does not stand a chance. Know. I will tell you what. Unlike you, they give free samples. A new ceo coming in costco. That is why i like craig so much. Costco along with walmart, the two retailers in the broad line. They own costco. Tjx could also be owned. Costco is number one and i am proud to be a costco stock owner and a member. Im thinking of moving up. Just saying, putting it out there. Donald in ohio. Donald. Yes. Amc improved on their sustainability. As soon as they got into the sold out concert business with beyonci■and taylor swift. I will tell you, i have heard enough about taylor swift to last a lifetime. Number four, he is my guy in fantasy. I dont care about her. I do feel strongly that amc is a strong sale here and you should sell it. My daughters favorite. Brian in oregon. Brian. Mr. Kramer. Welcome back from vacation. Thank you. I went with my wife and a lot of friends. A dynamite time. Whats going on . Anything you need is going down. A tech company that makes they recently starteds average. Beat on earnings, missed on revenue. It is 1. 4, what do you think about dominoes . I believe what he is doing with the delivery systems. Let me tell you something else. He has an operator. That is what you needed. The situation has 20 down with maybe 50 up. I will take over this market any day. Jim, you have the best show on television today. So helpful, so educational. The young generation, you are doing a blessing to them. You are very kind. In italy, can you believe he is in the vineyard business. Believe me. Im sorry, i had to say it. I want ask you about a firm, last quarter, they had a great order 12 up to 25. 18 and change. A good time now to add to my position. I think that it is terrific. But here is the problem. I do not like banks. It is a bank. It does not matter. It tastes good, it does not matter. Diamond is good. Unless he calls me and tells me its not. It is the bank. They are not the place to be. Listen, we are not oversold enough that we can start buying. Were getting there. Thats what i recommend. A great time to sit on your hands. Unlikely. Im i read annuals. They give us an opportunity to interpret data. What i deduced from a host of course. Your investment pieces. Netflix versus tesla. Im thinking of the reaction and what it means for you. Guy in the crosshairs of higher rates. What you think about this company . You have not seen nothing yet until you see the ceo in the living call. Stay with kramer. Do not miss a second of mad money. Follow jim cramer from mad money. Hashtag mad tweets. Send jim an email. Or give us a call. Miss something, go to mad money. Cnbc. Com. Hi, im denise. Ive lost over 22 pounds with golo in six months and ive kept it off for over a year. I was skeptical about golo in the beginning because ive tried so many different types of diet products before. Ive tried detox, ive tried teas, ive tried all different types of pills, so i was skeptical about anything working because it never did. But look what golo has done. Look what it has done. Im in a size 4 pair of pants. Go golo. soft music with cirkul, your water is deliciously flavored at the turn of a dial, with zero sugar and zero calories. And cirkul has over 40 flavors, so your water can be as unique as you are. Try cirkul. Your water, your way. Now with even more flavors. Available at walmart or drinkcirkul. Com. To duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a builtn engine like google, but its pi and doesnt spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. And theres no catch. Its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. There has been a lot of concerns for the better part of three years, Consumer Spending has been on fire. We have a bad inflation problem. In recent months, a growing consensus that the consumer is about to run out of steam. Higher Interest Rates, geopolitical chaos, resumption of student loan payments, people are really feeling the pinch. Then the retail sales report which came in hot. 3. 8 yearoveryear. That gets called into question. A Third Straight month of higher than expected retail sales. Goose egg predictions that we are subjected to. How is the consumer really doing . The middle of earnings season. We will hear from the consumer folks and companies. Short answer . Its complicated. Long answer, i will walk you through. Finger on the polls. This is the best one. A strong set of results. However, nothing but positive things to say about u. S. Consumers bending. Spending by u. S. Consumer cardmembers was up 9 yearover year. It was so robust, up 13 . Calling out the strength in restaurant spending. One of the Fastest Growing travel categories. If you are worried about student loan payments, spending by millennial and gen z consumers are up 18 . The market has done such a terrific job of winning over young people. At the end of the day, amex reported good numbers. Wall street is considering that this will crash had burst. Certainly a possibility. It is not really concerning. That is why upon further review, complicated is right. Before we got here, the nationwide banks. Some of the largest credit card issuers out there were kind of wishywashy. I like to follow what bank of america says. David crosssection of customers. It definitely does focus on higher intel. Bank of america had to say, it was worth listening to. It is still at the 4 yearover year level. They frame this as they return to normalcy. It was a year before the pandemic. It is a big slowdown of 10 in 2022. These numbers are consistent with a low growth and low inflation economy. No, it is normal and see. It is pretty industrywide specific. We heard from some of the airlines. When you piece them all together, consumers demand is very strong. Rich people, business travelers, and people overseas. There is inflection in the low end. Domestic stuck. The airlines have brought on new capacity. It has to do with consumer demand and higher costs. Yeah, fuel. We heard similar commentary from carnival. 2024 is off to a good start. The widespread concerns about the consumer. He has not seen any changes in the company bookings. We are and have less inventory for sale as the same time last year. 5 more capacity at historical levels. The book position is as far out as we have ever seen it. That is the statement. People are spending their money on experiences. It is holding up just fine when we are talking cruises. The stocks did manage to rally today. It was big. We came to the close. Complicated. What else . When did americans talk about the strength of restaurants, we heard from jordan. And some other concepts in reporting late september. At the same time, the ceo said that consumers are resilient and also a bit more selective. He called out hiring room consumers where he is seeing softness. I dont know what to make of that. We have heard from so many different companies. Suggesting it could be related to the increase of international travel. When rich people go on vacation, olive garden is probably not the preferred location. Resilient to describe the state of the u. S. Economy. How the portfolio has allowed them to bring value for customers across multiple pricing tiers. The consumer is stable. Proctor is taking share. A fantastic order. I am biased but i loved it. Others are doing much worse. Carmax, the usedcar giant who is a good company, grand picture in late september. Who wants to buy lou used cars when an auto loan is through the roof. You start to get a better idea of the state of the consumer. Macro numbers alone. They tell you very little. The redhot Consumer Spending figure. So are the endless doomsday predictions about how the consumer is tapped out. The Consumer Spending environment, it is not great, not bad. Some categories are doing better than others. They are still going out to dinner if they have american express. It is not enough shape. Brands like Procter Gamble are doing just fine. Getting a little more choosy with amex younger customers, not what you would expect. Bottom line, so far this earnings season, even if the consumer is not doing great, things are much less catastrophic than what the experts have led you to believe if you listen to them. Something to keep watching as we go into the holiday season. No one should understand date the u. S. Consumer to shop more than anyone expects. Mad money is back after the break. Coming up, two mega stocks reported. Two very different reactions from the street. Tesla, netflix, cramer. Next. sfx stone wheel crafting the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . Icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. I take a week off. Now we are back we need to catch up on some huge stories from last week. Take last wednesday. Netflix and tesla, two of the most highly visible companies out there reported first and these are very different. Netflix them out of the earnings looking like 1 million. Tess on the other hand, had a earning pool back that was over 9 in response to the quarter before hitting again on friday. Youve got to remember, they survived until the end of the movie. James colberg and steve mcqueen. Why did netflix break out. It is the zeitgeist of the stock market. Netflix pulled back 30 from july highs. Worrying about the actor strikes. It is now over. The cfo made some comments in the industry conversation about how netflix can keep growing its margins over the last couple years. They saw that. They sold the stock aggressively. It was in line sales. Translated to 3. 74. They really is to the operating guides for the forecast for 2024. Not a lot of companies that have a great forecast. All of those margin worries well netflix is generating cash flow like crazy. It was on subscriber growth. Okay. Netflix at a. 76 million global streaming paid. That is astounding. The 6 million number from the analyst that the company expected. What the hedge fund wanted to see. It is accelerating subscriber growth. It should be similar to the last one. The new ad supported plans, membership is up 70 versus the previous quarter. There are concerns about the new advertising operation. Netflix has said that the advertisers will come when they build a large enough user base. Isnt that what they are doing . Some of the better than expected subscriber growth came from them cracking down on password sharing which they are doing worldwide. Its that people borrowed accounts are paying for their own access. For me, you really did. It boosted the market better than anyone expected. It is like legal shoplifting. It is the norm these days. It is much harder for retailers to crack down on theft then netflix. What else . New price increases for the u. S. And uk. The price squeezes have become ramped up. Helping the customer grow the revenue per user. By the way, this Conference Call was my favorite so far. Peer joy. Netflix subscriber numbers with a compelling plan. Low profitability, whats not to like . People want the stock hand over fist. Netflix is still down substantially from those highs. It is not at all expensive. The advertising growth rate will be stellar. That is how it will score during such an ugly week. What about tesla . It got crushed last week. Tesla spent the whole Third Quarter trending lower. In july they made it clear that Third Quarter production would be down a little bit as they upgraded those factors. They post the Third Quarter production numbers, they were down immediately from the Second Quarter with deliveries coming well below what wall street was looking for. Still, if you are a tesla bowl, one quarter of slow production of results. It is still very high. Making more money on electric vehicles than anybody in the industry. After what they reported last week, that will thesis was called into question by the numbers. By many ways, they have to spend some time on this because it took my breath away. Negative commentary by the man himself, elon musk. Teslas first top and bottom miss since 2019. Short of 1 billion. They need to cut prices to just stay competitive. A promotional environment for the evs. The automotive Gross Margins 18. 1 to 16. 3 this time. This one has really come down in the last couple quarters. The results suggest that they need to compromise on price in order to sell enough cars. It is 1. 7 million vehicles. You have to wonder how much they will have to cut prices in order to move all that. Advertising, this was not the test love the last few years. If youre looking for comfort from the tesla genius ceo himself, you did not get much. Instead, a downbeat outlook on the car. But on the Global Economy and the impact of higher Interest Rates in the business. Wall street bears or something. It might be a technology company. They sell cars in a higher Interest Rate environment. With electronic vehicles, they reached the apex being back to the pole position. This makes the analysts particular uneasy if not queasy. They spend so much time talking about the big picture. A personal favorite saying it was one of the most conscious Conference Calls they have seen from the company in years. Im telling you, it felt awful. The ai investments which got more love in a better quarter. The side of the truck, really negative. Everything else was a sideshow after these disappointing numbers. His whole commentary is worth it. Now the thesis is under fire. Bottom line, these adjacent stocks should trade together. But they should him. Netflix warned last week that they are a thriving media company. Tesla is in the auto industry. Yielding tenders for the difference of the 5 level. That is how netflix can outperform tesla. I need elon musk to be more positive. I will pound the table on the stock of this great company. I want to take calls, cal in massachusetts. Cal . Hi, jim, boo yah. I enjoy your show very much. I know you are positive on nvidia. As high as 500. Down, 412. Wondering if the media announced it today about the chips and what your feelings are, should i buy some more . No, i dont think so. It will not mean that much. The margins are not as good. They reported the outlook i was not that good tonight. Nvidia stock is down. It is a longterm thesis. It is below 400 which is always a possibility. Netflix and tesla are not from the mega trades together, the nonmagnificent netflix could go against magnificent tesla. It is not just the stocks and the actual index. Much more mad money. Snap on. 50 for the investors having it an opportunity after returning a very strong report. A little bit from chevron any 53 billion deal with a more consolidated industry. Where do i come down on the deal . I will give you a take during this weeks rapid fire and the lightning round. Stay with. Fisher Investments its easy to think that all Money Managers are pretty much the same, but at Fisher Investments were clearly different. other money manager different how . You sell High Commission investment products, right . Fisher Investments nope. Fisher avoids them. other money manager well, you must earn commissions on trades. Fisher Investments never at fisher. other money manager ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. Fisher Investments no. We structure our fees so we do better when our clients do better. That might be why most of our clients come from other Money Managers. At Fisher Investments, were clearly different. This is Spring Semester at fairfieldsuisun unified. They switched to google tools for education because theres never been a reported Ransomware Attack on a chromebook. Now theyre focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Still be with the direction of the economy, numbers from companies that are quite simple. Upside surprise from an old favorite of mine. Tools and diagnostic equipment from the auto repair business. And agriculture, aviation and the toolmaker has a clean top and bottom beat from last thursday. I dont know, they do not get much of a lift last thursday and friday. Anything can happen. Stocks are down 15 from being on a 10 year high. Something they want to buy, lets take a look. The chairman and ceo and welcome back to mad money. Its been too long. You look great. Thank you, so do you. The thing about you and your company, right now you have never been more prosperous. Business has never been more prosperous. We just had a snapon franchise. Boom chocolate go was the name of the game. Two dozen franchisees. They could not have been more excited about where they are and more confident about the future. It is like so many modern day paul reveres. The recession is coming, the recession is coming. If you are in a garage or a factory, you do not hear any of that. It is a combination of new tools and oolkits. Going real backwards and remembering this industry in the 90s when trouble codes on the car were measured in dozens. Now it is tens of thousands. You cannot use all tools to fix these cars. There are a couple things. The average car is 12. 5 years old. They are still using the older tools. That is why we say we are on the threshold of the golden age of auto repair. Cars are getting more fly by wire. You need a database to analyze them. Then you have autonomy coming in. They need more precision. Torque wrenches. Then you have electric vehicles and plugin hybrids. Advanced internal combustion engines. This is the place where we play. We are in the garages. We can see what the new technology requires in terms of repair. There might not be tools to fix it. You are thriving since i saw you last. This one about agriculture i thought was amazing. The wind towers. How did you get the wind towers . They have a lot of mechanics on them. The wind towers are starting to go up. What is interesting about them, that business, we have started to build kits that will stop wind towers. It fixes everything on the wind tower. Doing that on the flight for airplanes. One of the things about this that i think is true, the makers and fixtures and people who do the physical tasks, sometimes People Discount them. We think they are going to disappear. They made this country great. We are in the work and when the weapons are not tanks and planes, sheltering and mask is in the factories kept working and kept society from disintegrating and they emphasized and demonstrated the essential nature of their tasks. We were all witnesses. They are not going anywhere. A lot of people look at that is the business of the past being the business of the future. There people who did not understand your work and did not understand you. I thought what you are really doing was having people borrow money and they are going belly up on a midlevel market scheme. These are the lowest weve ever seen. We have this model, a fellow from saturn. I wish i had invented it myself. The van drivers go into the garages and they keep calling the guys that have the wrenches. The technician so that they know who they are. He wants to buy big box and he needs financing. The gargoyles and the airstrikes. This guy you should bet on you we do that. They are there every week to collect. That is why it is snapon mechanics. People make them perform like plus prime customers. This is the strongest ive seen. I like that. I will point out that you said that the businesses that are really booming, gangbusters, is the military and aviation business, you have so many things going on overseas . No. You never know, business is up big. The market is good. We are just getting in it. We just put our capacity online there. I will tell you what, we have confidence in the future, beside that expansion, the capacity for the four largest factories in america. This is what will make next year even better than this year. Mad money is back after the break. Coming up, cramer takes your calls. It is the lightning round. Next. Next, main street, get the stories behind the numbers. In the u. S. We see millions of Cyber Threats each year. That rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. So, the question is. Cyber attack as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. We need to rethink. Next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24 7 builtin security. Chip . At t business. Meet gold bond daily healing. A powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. With 7 moisturizers 3 vitamins. And. New gold bond healing sensitive. Clinically shown to heal moisturize dry, sensitive skin. Gold bond. Your record label is taking off. But so is your sound engineer. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire it is time for the lightning round. Then the lightning round is over. Are you ready . Mark in illinois. Mark. Hey, my question is about stocks. Keep the car, sell the stocks. Rebecca. Im doing good, how are you doing . Ongoing you are talking about it. Saying that i should sell some of the profits . Something is wrong, people are worried about cars. We will not make the estimates. John in new york. John . How are you doing . Im doing good, how are you doing . Good. Maybe my question today, tbr. I cant believe it is not as good as blue ribbon. That is the reason i like modelo and corona. This is too much for me. It is a seller of pvr. Lets go to joan. Joan, im doing good, how are you . Im doing well. My question is about nu holdings. Other stuff that i would sell. I would be a little less cautious. I will not push that kind of stuff. Lets go to mat clark in florida. Clark. I am in beautiful florida. Yes. Ive been watching for a long time. Communications, i like the communications and i like the technology. It is just under 10. It has grown over the years in his garden up to 50. In these few months, it has gone down to the 30s. First it was making money and now it expects to lose money. That is tough to be any of the ones that are making money. David in my home state of pennsylvania. David . It is for the pharma company. It is 4 . It is 32 off the 52week high. Are you ready to pound the table again . No. Im not. I will tell you why. I will say it the nicest way, i do not like the big pharma stocks. I will not push it, never buy a drug stock. That is the conclusion of the lightning round. The lightning round is sponsored by charles schwab. Coming up, news from the oil patch giving cramer deja vu. Dashing profits for chevron. Stick around. Ameritrade is now part of schwab. Bringing you an elevated experience, tailormade for trader minds. Go deeper with thinkorswim our awardwining trading platforms. Unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. And sharpen your skills with an immersive Online Education crafted just for traders. All so you can trade brilliantly. New projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. When you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. Visit indeed. Com hire and get started today. Stock went to one the next day. Then it goes down in florida. You might ask about everyone stock again. The answer, i bought stock in an oil company. In a standing bid from shamrock. There was plus and minus in between. Yes. It was the first of many. One after another after another. I was covering things for the American Lawyer magazine at the time. All companies were merging left and right. The biggest percentage win of my life. When a car bought by standard oil california. Paid for law school with that one. When i sigh bid from chevron, i got deja vu. On the heels of exxon mobil, 60 billion and it was pioneer natural resources. These are colossal deals, people. They all realized it was cheaper to drill for oil on wall street than in the ground. They see these things from the stock market and they just passed. The oil industry has a newfound discipline. They can pick up some other companies. The giant budget to make deals added to earnings almost immediately. It is a great time to own Oil Companies and keep their stocks. It was terrific. It seemed way too cheap. It is too much sense as a takeover target. It makes it so and resistible. Electric vehicles seem a lot less ethical than they did six months ago. It is stuck in a world where oil has an expiration date. In vehicle sales, they do not believe that short termination theory anymore. Because of the last two mergers, they are aided by troubles in the middle east. They got clobbered today when oil dropped a couple bucks. Now it is an oil and gas for her. We have ceo tom jordan on the show. This cruiser is going to rule. We have a recipe for the trust. We just cannot get enough. More likely to acquire than be a target. You can see all the moves before we make them by joining the investing club. It is much more diamondback and eog. I would love to pick some up. Man, wish me on oil for the trust too. When they were like blow fish swimming in an easy pool. The fact is there is only one bull market in town right now. It is decidedly positive. There is always a bull m mkekea somewhere. I am \s im Contessa Brewer in for Brian Sullivan tonight. A p watcher says, beware one name. Another megadeal in energy, with major implications for what you pay at the pump. Should we buckle up for more mergers and acquisitions here . Call it speaker shark tank. The nine republican candidates are making their pitch to fellow members. Well head live to capitol hill. Trying to buy a home instead of rent . Theres never been a worst time to do it, but all hope is no