Transcripts For CNBC Fast 20240703

Winner. Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight tim seymour, karen finerman, Bonawyn Eison and guy adami. We start with the markets second half slide. The s p has dropped 7 . If youre looking at grocery goods, General Mills, coke, pepsi, down 10 or more. Big box sellers, check out the moves lower in names like dollar general, target, best buy. And even higher end brands seeing outsized losses. One big culprit, higher Interest Rates, persistent inflation weighing on the consumer, and tomorrows jobs report, the first to capture the impact of the uaw strikes could show a bit more pressure being put on peoples wallets. So, do all these moves prove the consumer is facing a perfect storm of problems . We didnt even mention repayment of Student Loans in here, guy. Why yeah, just throw that in on top. Toss that in. Great movie, by the way, with george clooney. I think yes is the answer. And youre finding it in these stocks. The fact that targets multiyear low, dollar gen, five below, dollar tree, all juxtaposing to costco, within ear shot of an alltime high, and walmart, that is somewhat problematic. Xrt, critical levels here. 57 1 2, 58 level has been support a number of times over the last couple years. Needs to hold that. Below that, then i thought it takes the next leg lower. So, is the consumer in a good spot . I would say absolutely not. Its a combination of these stocks were too expensive in many cases, and i would get at least into the staple space, you Start Talking about General Mills, these companies were not worth what they were worth. If you think about a world where Interest Rates were zero, they were essentially bid up, the valuation of stocks that were utilitylike in terms of their return, well probably talk about utilities later, but im talking about staples, we talked about that underperformance of the s p, about 16 since may. If you look at that staples move, its down 12. 5 since august 1st. Thats correlated exactly with when you had this move higher in rates. At least when we really started to rocket higher. It is also were having this conversation, everybodys having this conversation about what glp1 means for snacks and cash nated softd drinks, but if you look at the lilly report and the numbers that came out in early august, almost coincide with all of this, its more than just a coincidence. When we started reassessing the total Addressable Market for weight loss drugs, we started reassessing what, you know, units were going to be in terms of sales and were hearing about that from people like walmart. Walmart saying today less units, thats a direct quote, by the way how do you like that . Less calories. How do you feel about that . The grammar. We get the sentiment. People are buying less because theyre on these weight loss drugs. And they are spending more. So, Discretionary Spending is being reallocated from whatever theyre buying before to these drugs which can cost, if not on insurance, 1,300 a month. Which is a lot out of peoples pockets. Yeah. Well, i wonder, though, about the shopper at walmart, right, we know theres high end shoppers and low end shoppers at walmart. And i have to think the mix would be on the lower end, which would not be where that drug is, because i dont know how fully insured that drug is. Its for diabetes and weight loss, it could, in fact, be insured. Okay. So, they are selling more of these glp1, so, thats showing up in their revenue on that side of things. If they are able to know exactly who the shoppers are and see the basket of whats in there, because i was wondering, how do they know . Just the consumers cutting back and the consumer trying to eat better . One thing that is a little bit backward looking is, arbob, a gas, has moved very dramatically in a very short time that i dont think is really reflected, and we certainly know the pain that the consumer feels at the pump, and so, if thats abating a little bit, i think thats a good thing, but i mean, its i own a bunch of consumerrelated stocks, not fun for sure. Theres really just no place to high. A couple Economic Data points we havent gotten to, the credit card balances, delinquencies. So, you are starting to see the cracks that we avoided for the longest period of time. Weve gone from hard landing to no landing to now soft landing to hard landing again. Exactly. And i think all of that ebb and flow is kind of bearing itself out in the stock market. What really concerns me isnt necessarily the moves in staples. Weve said for awhile those have been overpriced. Its really the move in the high end names that are showing that there really isnt a we talked about the kshaped recovery a couple years ago. Is there no pocket that is safe within the consumer complex . And i think the movement that were seeing, volatility that were seeing on that particular sub space is really whats a cause of concern, because even that more insulated consumer is really in a situation where they have to make decisions about, what are they going to spend on, and whether or not theyre going to spin that incremental dollar. We talked about restoration hardware, that is case in point of the higher end consumer, reevaluating what theyre going to spend on. And the companies themselves reevaluating how promotional they want to be and how much they want to hold onto margins. Ive talked about, im short lulu, its down from 400 to 360. They just reported three weeks ago, the numbers were very good. All the reasons why people wanted to own lulu are very much intact, international, men, the growth, the innovation. However, what are you going to pay for these stocks in this environment . And thats really what it comes down to. In the case of rh, i dont think its terribly expensive relative to itself. And i think it is starting to get interesting. A lot of these staples look very interesting, because to be clear, no matter whats happening with the comeconomy, people are still going to go out and drink coke. They are going to continue to buy General Mills cereals. And so, its what youre willing to pay for these stocks and if you look at the charts, they traded in very predictable ranges. And i think if you look at the valuations, you get to a place where, when you have stocks that are effectively utilities and commodities, thats when valuation really matters. And thats when you get to a place where you say, oh, wow, i didnt think i could own it at 12 times, and were getting close. Defensive . Im talking about defensive that hasnt been defensive, for all the reasons we just talked about, but will be defensive. And so, to say, i cant biuy coke its not time to sell coke, its time to figure out when you want to buy it. Thats the question. When do you get defensive . Because you could have thought for a long time this year that a recession was coming, that the stock markets going to crack, its going to happen, its going to happen it hasnt happened and the defensive names in the meantime have not acted well, so, how do you decide when is the time . Think about how utilities are historically very defensive. Think about how horribly theyve traded. Its been a strange few months without question. Quickly, karens right to point out gasoline, down 80 something cents which is significant over the last couple weeks. Problem is, you go to your local gas station, youre not going to seat an 80cent decline. Doesnt happen that way. I dont think youre suggesting that. And the move in crude oil and all these really strange things going around in the surface, but to answer your question, when you get these capitulation moves, for example, i dont know if our crack staff in ec can put up a clorox chart, they blamed getting cyber. Which is sounds a bit fugazi to me. Look at this i believe it, though. Yeah, go longer term in clorox. This trajectory has been in place for been getting hacked for the last six months . My point is, what historically has been defensive has not been working in an environment where it should. Where would you go for defense . Man, i im going to repeat myself and say i still think its probably that megacap complex. What . Bonawyn. But hear me out. We just sat here and said, not only have you had the opportunity cost of not being in those names for the better part of this year, youve gotten absolute wli shedded taken to the back shed and oh. Shredded, shedded i get it. I didnt know what happened. Wasnt sure. Shedded, yeah. To the wood shed, you mean. Absolutely. Chopped up, spit out. Being in those names has not worked for you. So, at least you have some beta to the upside in that complex, even if theres probably more downside now. I think thats i think fast money first. What . Shedded. 100 . Wood shed we have used by the way, i was going to say not shedded as a verb, no. 100 . It gets into terminology, too, when you you know what im going tim, you cant do that. Thats not fair. You start your thought. Finish your thought. When youre not liking what somebodys doing, maybe they are being irritating to you, you refer to them as a tool and sometimes actually someone can be the entire tool shed. Or maybe a home depot. Theyre the whole shed. Or they can be home depot. Thats, like can i just come to bonawyns defense. He doesnt need it, but ill just tell you this. If you look at the qqqs, higher rates, all the things that should be pushing the market around, theyre this close to making a new relative high against the s p. The s ps going down, but if you look at the place thats led markets, right now, you cant get too far away from these names. Im not very bullish on the market here, although, i think we have a rally to year end. This is the argument that most investors are making, right . Despite, you know, we had that note yesterday, the downgrade of apple from key bank, i think it was, to basically a market weight, saying the valuation doesnt reflect growth. It doesnt deserve this multiple, and yet it does, maybe, because of the execution aspect in this sort of volatile time. Not for me, apple, but i have a very big meta position. Started the year much smaller and it thats cheap. So is google. So is google. I feel more comfortable with those. I have amazon, as well, which is not cheap, but i do, you know, i do believe in the a. I. Story, so, im in that seven, most of them, dont own tesla, is that in teslas not in for the big yeah, i think so. Okay, i dont own that. But ts been a good place to be, i think that its been the Balance Sheets are great, right . The business model, for some of them, are so great, the margins are so great. Also, theyve been in a position where they can become a lot more efficient. Theyve been spending money, spend, spend, spend, particularly meta, obviously, we know that. And to turn that on a dime, thats very profitable change. Yeah. Well, the Institutional Investor hall of famer known to move markets is bracing for a sharp market pullback. Jpmorgans chief Market Strategist and cohead of global research, welcome back, marco. Hall of fame . Yeah. Nice. Beautiful. Excellent. Multiple times, in fact. He deserves it. You, like so many people, started the year very bearish on stocks. You stuck with it pretty much. Its not been an easy ride, but you do see the pain coming. No, so, we have the price target 4200 and sort of in fairness, we thought this is going to be a more volatile year that well see more sort of chop, instead, we got that summer rally, primarily driven by tech, which was sort of very painful, and the market came down sort of though our price target, and we remain somewhat negative still, so not necessarily calling for immediate sharp pullback, but we think recession will eventually happen, so, sort of upside versus downside in stocks is not that great. But this gets at the conversation we were just having in terms of timing. You can be an investor who believes that recession will hit, that there will be some sort of a landing, some sort of a recession, and that the pullback will come, but its hard to position yourself at this point in time, because we just i dont know, the job markets still strong. Job market is still strong, but you are starting to see the stress in consumer, if you look at sort of the delinquencies in thecards, in the auto loans. Inflation is there, and rates are higher for longer, you know. So, this thing will eventually come, right . So, then we look at upside versus downside. Could there be 5 , 6 in equities . Of course. But if there is a downside, it could be 20 downside, right . And you compare that to the cash, 5. 5 , you know . So, how much equity upside above 5. 5 . Maybe, 3 , 4 , but downside 20 . So, that, like, so timing is very hard, right . And this year, particularly, and we didnt get it timing good. That said, we still stick to that. Its not attractive, its not exciting. There is an alternative, and recession, im not sure how were going to avoid it if we stay at these level of Interest Rates. Mel, what do they call it when a video goes viral. Viral. Crazy. I mentioned that, because rick was here the other day and his call 13 . Went viral. I mean yes. Million and a half views now. You probably saw that. What i did see. I dont think rates are going there, but what are your thoughts on rates . Here we are at 4. 7 , tenyear. When you compare to the multiple, it doesnt add up, right . Historically, the level doesnt add up with the multiple p te. The other thing is, whats going to happen, right . So, the rates could go a little bit higher. I think the you know, the 13 might be, you know, things would probably break a lot sooner than that happens, so, i dont think it goes that high, but could go up a little bit, a little bit more, which is already, i think, problematic for the multiple. So, marco, theres been two markets. Theres the nasdaq and, you know, the magnificent seven, whatever you want to call them, and then theres the rest, which have been flat or down, right . Do you think that it is possible to just have a recovery out of those into others . Thats a very good point, right . So, russell is down 2 for the year. Cash is up 5. 5 . So s p all the way down. Magnificent seven up a lot, right . So two course of action, you know . If you dont believe that there is arecession, i guess buy those. Buy the ones which are lagging, right . Recession doesnt happen, they will lead, right . But dont buy these magnificent, right . If there is a recession, i think magnificent will catch up, or catch down, to where the rest is, you know . So, if you want to take sort of a view on recession, you know, theres relative component, you know . So, some things got beaten up already, tim mentioned sort of staples, utilities, those types of things. Some of the cyclicals. Part of what got you into the hall of fame in the strategist world, you have a quan approach and quan background. I feel like the market weve had is something to do with positioning. Its had something to do where sentiment is, and it just seems like thats been part of the story, in hindsight, thats always easy to say, but where are we now on that stuff . Because i remember your call in march of 2020 with covid and you were like this is crazy this is this is a screaming buy. Sentiment feels awful, when just six weeks ago, people were, i think, over their skis. Yeah. No, thats a very good point. So, positioning does matter a lot. And it did matter this year, as well. So, we started november, december, very low positioning, you know, tech, pretty much everything. Volatility was still high. And then volatility was coming down significantly this year. As it comes down, many of the technical investors, they little by little sort of increase, increase. So, that was a tailwind, right . You had that big tailwind, underestimated by the market. And then you had the sort of tech a. I. Thesis, so, that sort of got us to the highs. And now, its picking up. Vix is not 13, its 18, 19, and data are becoming a little more shaky. So, were around we call it 58 , 60 , its not high positioning. Its much higher that doesnt sound very bullish. Sounds like all this sentiment hasnt really done much to positioning and people arent that, you know, arent that long. No, its the sort of middle, like, about average, you know, i would say. Means can go up or down positioningwise, but we do think that sort of this cycle part is going to get tougher and tougher as the consumer erodes. Marko, thank you for your time. I remember the quan report you used to put out, being that tim just put it out. You put it out with scott and amin and other people. How should investors be thinking about volatility as an asset class right now . I know we are thinking about, should we overlay or buy outright optionality, but in terms of actual allocation, can you touch on that . Its hard to own just volatility, because theres always negative. You have to it was tough this year, but this summer, when we got to 12, you know in july, it looked really much, you need to own some of the downside protection. Investors are also selling shortterm options, so, its been used to generate as an asset class to generate yield. But so now at 18, i think its its probably still a good to own some of it, but not as attractive when it was down to 12 or 13, so marko, thank you. Thank you. Hope you come by soon again. Thank you. So, what do we think here . Mid 3,000s. Mike wilsons been talking about, marko, you got to listen to him. You dont have to agree with him, you got to listen to him. And how many people hes still working, hes in the hall of fame. Hes like eric clapton. Good for marko. Well, i think that as we set up for some seasonal dynamics, i look at what rates have done, what oil has done, and i just think a lots been thrown at the consumer, i think a lots been thrown at the market. I dont really like the setup for next year, but i kind of feel like we have some room here. I think tomorrows a payroll number. When we get that next payroll number that really shows that the labor market is weakening, i think the market is going to love it. And i think theyre going to believe that we still have that fed back. This has all been about the fed put that people actually people think, hey, you know what after that last meeting, theyre serious. L like, theyre not messing around. That was the difference of the rates markets, so, i think the shortterm to mediumterm move to the year end, it favors the bulls. Coming up, rivians terrible, no good, awful, very bad day. The headlines taking all the charge out of the ev makers shares. Well drive down that bumpy road ahead. Plus, our chart of the day. Well break it down. More fast money right after this. 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[mind blown explosion noise] this is Spring Semester at fairfieldsuisun unified. They switched to google tools for education because theres never been a reported Ransomware Attack on a chromebook. Now theyre focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. we have a news alert on the criminal trial of ftx founder Sam Bankmanfried. We just wrapped inside the criminal trial here in lower manhattan. Three Witnesses Today taking the stand. Ftx cofounder gary wong has already pleaded to fraud. The prosecution jumped right into it today, saying, did you commit financial frauds, he said yes. And prosecutors said, do you see any of the people you committed fraud with in the courtroom, he stood up, he spotted Sam Bankmanfried and said, yes. Was bankmanfrieds College Roommate at m. I. T. And lived with him in that bahamas pebtp penthouse. All of this, he says, was at the direction of Sam Bankmanfried. He said the hedge fund that is also connected in this had special privileges and unlimited access to ftx accounts, and the ability to withdraw endless money, and to have a negative balance and a 65 billion line of credit. Also said alameda did take roughly 8 billion of customer money from ftx. Wong got a 1 million personal loan from alameda and a 200 million to 300 million loan, taken out in his name. That borrowed money was used, instead, to make investments on behalf of the company, he said he never saw it, he owned 10 of alameda research. We heard from another ftx executive and m. I. T. Friend, as well. Also a bahamas roommate. His testimony ended on a fiery note, struck from the record, but when asked why he lost fate in ftx, he said, ftx defrauded all of its customers. And then, we had a venture capitalist that took the stand. He said that they lost invested and lost 278 million in that company. They wrote it down to zero. He said, they never had a board of directors or a cfo. So, key testimony there, guys. Back to you. Crazy stuff. Kate, thank you. Kate rooney. Racy. Wow. We are kicking the tires on two auto stocks making headlines today. First up, gm. Shares dropping after at least 20 million of the automakers vehicles were built with potentially dangerous air bag parts. Auto regulators recommending a recall of 50 million vehicles using the same air bags which are made by arc you a motive. It would effect gm and 12 other automakers. Gms stock hitting a threeyear low on the back of this. And shares of rivian plummeting. The ev maker announcing a 1. 5 billion convertible bond sale after the bell last night. It provided q3 revenue estimates that were in line with estimates, obviously, its the raise that has the stock down this much. Yeah, its interesting. Rivian does have another convert out there, not surprisingly, got annihilated. 20 and change conversion price, so its now through that. On the one hand, you can think that a lot of the selling was from people who think, all right, im going to buy on the convert, im going to get in front of it, short some and then buy the convert and then hedge it. On the flip side, though this now breaking below its conversion. You got to rejigger your if you own this bond, and you have short against it, you kind of have to rejigger. So, im interested to see how the Short Interest has changed, but this that bond was they are going to have to pay more than that. Demand is off the chart. Crazy amount of demand. The ceo talks about a pathway to profitability. All good stuff. Thats a pretty huge move today, on 190 million shares or so, four times normal volume. They lose 33,000 they lose 30 grand every car they sell. You can say that will flip at some point, yeah, maybe, but they havent proven that to be the case yet. I understand you trade the stock, but you look at a longterm chart of rivian, if you can look, its pretty much flatlined at this level. You want to trade it, be my guest, but i dont know if you can own it here. It gets back to, you know, where rates are higher, suddenly people are reassessing Business Models and what companies are worth, and this is a case where the cash burned is crazy. Gm, like, they didnt need this news. And they certainly didnt need the chart tells you that, as it broke through that 32. We had auto sales year over year, and those numbers were okay. Around 15. 7 million, but a lot of that is fleet. If you look below those numbers, were starting to see weakening in demand and weve all show already why there are concerns around the consumer. Not great for the autos. There is a lot more fast money to come. Heres whats coming up next. The ultimate would you rather. In this corner, the mighty sixmonth treasury bill. Its challengers . Some of the markets most widely owned stocks. Are you ready to rumble . Well go ten rounds, next. Plus, as if air travel wasnt stressful enough. A change is coming to mexicos airports, and the stocks taking a hit because of them. Youre watching fast money, live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Were back right after this. Welcome back to fast money. Some mexican airport stocks dropping today after the government announced changes to airport fees, according to reports. The changes will effect the entire tariff system, which includes passenger fees, use of runways and leasing spaces to airlines and suppliers. The broader mexico etf eww down sharply. Thats one you own. Yes, it really had a bad day. Kind of an odd report. Seemed rather arbitrary that they sort of put in these new tariffs that didnt have any it seemed arbitrary, random, and out of nowhere. And so, all of those stocks got hit hard, like, which, amazingly that you remembered i owned like 12 years ago. Yeah. Thinking about it further, this, i think, presents somewhat of a concern for, if you think you want to not onshore but go to mexico, nearshore, and if mexico is as businessunfriendly as to do things like this, which amlo has done, hes done some of that, then you kind of have to rethink, which is not great for, you know, if the big three want to hold moving to mexico over the head of the uaw, this isnt great. Im going to cross the border and go to delta, im going to beat you to the punch and say that they report on the 12th of october, so, next week, if im not mistaken. We thought the stock would go to 49. But here we are at 36ish. I think delta actually ahead of earnings is interesting here. Bonawyn . Listen, i think theres got to be some understanding of the risk that youre taking any time youre kind of taking on this international risk. I think the mexican market clearly, i think its progressed, you know, the emerging market trade, i think, makes sense. And if you really think about, where do you want to be in terms of the energy complex, i think mexico has the manufacturing and the come podty exposure. So, i think this actually might be chance for you to get involved. The mexico peso is off 10 since september 1st. If you have that currency risk if you invest in the eww. A lot of this is macro, a lot of this is Interest Rates. The dynamics, less about stockspecific, you are absolutely talking about some of the risk to new business. Having said all that, i think mexico, you are buys this weakness. Oil prices support that economy, as well. And i think they hold. Did you change your to pigs . I did not. Amlo, his presidency ends september of next year. Coming up, the ultimate would you rather. Were pitting donalds against stocks and what could be fast moneys toughest challenge yet. Oh, wow. Im nervous. Plus, activist action in foot locker. One trader says this name could be a prime target. Well see if the shoe fits, after this. More fast money in two. The first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized. Well, we can do anything. Cheesecake cookies . The chookie manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. we did it start today at godaddy. Com icy hot. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. Feel the power of contrast therapy. So you can rise from pain. Icy hot. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks finishing basically flat today and well off their lows of the session. The dow down ten points. The s p down 5 1 2 points and the nasdaq, 16 points in the red. Crew oil extending its rapid slide lower. The commodity now down more than 10 in just the past week. And look at shares of levi, falling after the bell. Mixed quarterly results, cutting its fullyear sales forecast. It already lowered the forecast and says now its going to be the lower end of that range. Now time to take another one of our favorite fast money games and turn it on its head, because thats what we do. Its the ultimate edition of would you rather. We are asking the traders to choose big caps versus the sixmonth treasury. Which is yielding 5. 557 . Very attractive. So lets get our boards out, jump right in. Would you rather, tim, sixmonth tbill or disney. So, i i mean, i guess the its a sixmonth time horizon, where is my total return is going to be . I think disney, which is so beaten down, is going to outperform. Im going mouse house. Oh, wow. Not bad, right . Copyright infringement, but very good. All right. How about sixmonth tbill, karen yes . Or jpmorgan. Wow. Okay. Even though i do own oneyear jpmorgan. For a couple of reasons. What does it say up in the corner . Says hi, jamie. Hes watching. Did a heart over the i. I think that, you know, just under a 3 yield which is not that far off, as well as being under nine times earnings, so, for me, i feel like id rather, and i have more money, sort of, where do i have more money, in jpmorgan than i do in treasuries. Interesting. This next one is an interesting one. Sixmonth tbill or nvidia, bonawyn . Let the eye rolls ensue. So, i picked nvidia, and the reason why is share your board, please. Yes, sorry, my goodness. Come on, bonawyn. Dropping the ball. Shedded it. Im picking nvidia here, because you have to pick your spot somewhere, right . And ive come up here and i said, listen, i really think its very attractive to be investing in treasuries, but you completely run out of equities. For that reason, its inline with the barbell approach. I think you want something thats going to give you that upside growth and i think nvidia still offers that in tandem with tbills. Im going to ask karen her opinion, because you own nvidia. I do. I own nvidia. But the risk reward is obviously very, very different. I agree with everything you said. I think its an interesting way to look at it, to think about, you have to be i do believe the a. I. Story and i do believe, we always talk about picks and shovels, thats where you want to be. All right. Heres one for guy. Sixmonth tbill or amazon . Okay, im going to channel my inner rick you see what i did there . We dont see anything. Has a lot of its that line thats the amazon river. Thats actually obviously. Obviously. Obvi. Youre not happy about that. You could barely read it. Miles gave us really bad pens. Im throwing miles under the bus. Amazon reports around halloween. Im betting they will report one of those ridiculous quarters where you see a 15 move in the stock over the last over a fewday period of time. So, get the tbills, thats safe, but amazon might be hair trigger here. Heres a bonus round. This is a very interesting question. Would you rather sixmonth tbills or the tenyear . Oh. So, there is risk in duration. So, what would you choose, tim . This is a complicated question, because theres three, four levels to it. Theres a duration element of it, because i actually think that there is still some risk in duration and moving out the curve. I look at the short end of the curve and i do think in the six months thats going to have come in, so, i realize youre not seeing much capital appreciate in your tbill, but im going to say the sixmonth tbill. Because i think not only do i feel comfortable and in the next six months, i think were going to answer a lot of questions on where were going, its possible we still go higher on rates. Not at the short end, in the long end. Karen . I agree with tim. I think something terribly, terribly bad has to happen for the short end to go dramatically down. So, im going to stick with the short end. Bonawyn . Yeah, im going to go with the sixmonth, as well. But i want a little bit more dexterity and optionality. I dont want the duration risk. Wait to be able to kind of monetize and redeploy rather than taking the mark to market risk being tied up in the tenyear. And the question is, do you think theres going to be a reversion in the tenyear in the shortterm. Uhhuh. Yeah. You could make some money in the long end. Right, exactly. So, thats even if you are near the amazon river, or ill get a closeup of this, because this is actually brilliant. Um ill play your reindeer game and say the tenyear, because i do think, though tenyear yields could probably trend up a little bit from here, if the market selloff that i think is going to happen happens, its going to drive yields lower. Is the flight to quality the short end . I think it will be in the form of the tlt. Thats just my view. So, id rather did i just get a ding . No, that was my shoe, sorry. I was going to say if the ding fits. Coming up, triple top trouble. One industry giant mowing into a concerning chart formation. What does it mean for the stock . Our chart of the day is next. And cnbc is celebrating h hispanic heritage. Heres the president of oceanic cruises. As a firstgeneration cuban american, both of my parents were born in cuba, migrated here to the u. S. For political reasons. Growing up in miami, the cultural melting pot that it is, was always a comforting feeling, because i always felt like i was surrounded by folks that understood my heritage and understand the die nall ickes of my culture, and now that im able to raise my own kids here in miami, its really nice, because were able to really keep a lot of our own Cultural Heritage alive. You got this. Lets go. Gobble gobble. Ive seen bigger legs on a turkey rude. Who are you . Im an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this Smart Fitness mirror. Im also mr. Leg day. 1989 anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. I go through a lot of pants. Before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. Welcome back to fast money. Time to reveal our chart of the day, deere is nearing the dreaded death crawl. Kwloes to fal close to falling below its 200day. You pointed out, guy, a potential triple top. They say there are no such things, but you will see thats exactly what it looks like. And weplay the golden cross, death cross, were close to exactly that happening. So, watch it. They report, i want to say mid november, so, you have some time, but this is a stock that every time we sort of made these moves higher on the back of anticipated demand and stuff, it gives it right back. Its happened three times now. And one has to wonder, as, you know, things start to slow down, how it will impact the john deere and company. So, i know tim drives one. He mows his own lawn. Hes a stud. But how many tim seymours are out there . A lot of people are cutting their own grass. I commend you. People call it a lawn mower, i have to correct them, its a lawn tractor. Nothing ones like a deere. Small tract we dont have to get into, you know tim has i would also say, so, i agree with guys concern here, and if you have concern for deere, you have concern for caterpillar, and if you have concern for a chart that also has been kind of a rocket. Now, the valuations in both cases are not terribly challenging. And thats the story. But the industrial world, after outperforming significantly, if you look at the xli as an overall for that group,under pressure here. And underperforming. Do have concern for uri . Yeah, i think it does. Part of it is, is there trouble with the infrastructure build because of rates . Yeah. I tend to think im with you there. The tailwind got us to where we were, and subsequently, now with rates where they are, its kind of a bit of an overhang. I would be looking at an entry point for deere. I would wait, but i really think at 12 times its pretty compelling and its not just an agriculture or industry story, its also a Technology Story and one that i want to get behind. As i recall, ark invests, they see deere as an a. I. Play. Pardon me . In 2040 . Seems to be the time horizon. You know, its a lot of automation going on and well, ill say this tractors and these stocks have rerated theyre not expensive, you will if you look, you know, caterpillar was an 80 stock a couple years ago, its 260 now. Lets play it out for a second. We have a minute here. Maybe that. Part of the beauty of owning a tractor yes. Is being able to sit in it with your hat, right . Thats all part of it. If we are now a society that has selfdriving deere tractors, what have we become . Who is going to put on the hats on . Are you going to put it on the seat . For people who actually have to work for a living and farm their farms, this might actually be a very good thing because it can make them very productive. Gives them something its a therapeutic thing to be out there on the field. Oh. See, thank you, tim. Theres Nothing Better than that. Dont take that away from us. Im not doing anything. I just want to go to break now. Okay. Coming up, heres something we havent said recently. Foot locker shares having a strong week. Whats behind the step higher, and what can we learn from the move . And heres a sneak peek at the cramer cam. Hes chatting with the levi strauss ceo. Full interview, top of the hour on d nemamoy. For fast money in two. What do you see on the horizon . Uncertainty . Or opportunity. Whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined Risk Management are needed most. 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Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of foot locker have been a shoe dog over the last six months. Down more than 50 , but in the last week, the stock has been showing signs of life, jumping more than 11 . Karen says theres more to this mini comeback. So, what do you think is behind this move . Well, a couple things. Nike talked about their inventories improving. So, that is good. To say its had a nice week, okay, yeah, but i mean, this has been really terrible. But i also saw it on the list of the most act visitable companies so, it kind of made me take a closer look. What makes a good activist target . One, state of incorporation. Foot locker happens to be in new york, this is a very delaware is the best, new york also very, very friendly. When the entire board is up for reelection at one time. Thats also very good for activists. That fits the bill here, as well. And then the third one is sort of severe sector underperformance. Because the sector can be very much out of favor, but to have one of their one player in the sector be out of favor, way worse than the other, thats not good. So, is it right for an activist . Maybe. I do think, though, i like mary dillon as the ceo. If that would be part of an activist campaign, thats going to be a tough one. And its ridiculously cheap. So, i think it doesnt set up terribly, but i dont see anybody there at the moment. Right. Well, foot locker, you know, it is tail versus dog, whatever, but it certainly is a tale on nike. We just had nikes numbers. Three, four analysts, its interesting, actually have the same headline on their report, which is better than feared. So, that explains to me the move you have in the stock. The stock, which, again, not a broken company, not an expensive company. A question, really, of where do you think youre going to see the next catalyst . Its probably not coming from china. Its probably not coming that marginal dollar discretionary. So im sure the stock, you know, im id like to see that move down to kind of the mid80s and i think its probably time to not only cover it, but then you start thinking about going the other way. Mary dillon, she bought some shares recently. She owns almost 150,000. You like to see that. Put your money where your mouth is. Problem, of course, the stock is at a 12year low. Couple of analysts i think initiated in late september neutral, downgraded the stock. Price targets around 18 or so. Its just not all that interesting here, i dont think. Coming up, a cash value conundrum. Why the billionplus dollar Powerball Jackpot isnt as good as it seems. Plus, final trades. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to help keep our Online Platform safe from cyberthreats . Absolutely. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . 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If the winner opts for a lump sum payment now, he or she will get the discounted value. With Interest Rates where they are, that comes to less than 50 of the headline value, according to wall street journal jts analysis. That is lower when rates were much, much lower. If you take the annuity, youll get your 1 billion in insta installments, but you have to wait 30 years. Im not playing then. I mean, forget it. Im out. Good. More room for the rest of us, man. Forget it. Ill take it either way. Time for the final trade. Time to go arne the horn. Tim . Staples, cocacola. Its not time yet, but at 48 on the chart, youve had essentially a 20 pullback and valuation starts to get very interesting. Karen . Yes, so, next week, were going to start to see corporate earnings and we always start off early and that is the banks, so, next friday, i think jpmorgan reports. I like the setup going into that earnings report, the stocks been down a fair amount in the last couple of weeks. So, bonawyn . For the longest time, Home Builders have flown in the face of the rate volatility. This last pickup might give you some pause. Just wait a little bit. When i started at drexel in 1986, by the way, 60 broad street, rick santelli. The first thing, what do you think they gave you first day . An hp12c calculator. I got one. Time, value, money. Time, value, money. So, we knew these things long before. Im just saying. And if tim doesnt want to be part of our reindeer games, hell be the only one on the show on tuesday. Let me ask wynn resorts. If you win, do you buy me a car . Wynn. Thanks for watching fast. Dont go anywhere. Mad money with jim cramer starts right now. My mission is simple. To make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. So call me at 1800743cnbc. Or tweet me jimcramer. We keep losing viable groups as formerly terrifi