Isnt lost. It may be found. What do we think about where we might go . I think were still stuck in a range, were battling with the emotions of feeling better, seeing corporate earnings do better than we expect. Were seeing goldman say things like, hey, were decreasing the chance of a recession. Then were fighting the math on it. I dont see how the multiple on the s p gets above 20 times. With that you have a heavy cap on the market. Were stuck in this range and it might take time to get out of it. Investors are impatient. Theres so much we still need to digest. Were digesting 18 months of rate hikes, the fed reducing their balance sheet, the inflation reduction act, unemployment levels that are changing, inventories. Everything is distorted. We want it to happen all at once, get back to high growth but its important to do that. I think were stuck. Joe, are we stuck . I think it rallied from the 4 low. Youve built in a cushion. I think jenny is on to something. Weve priced in the fact the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates in september, the fed funds rate 93 of no rate hikes. So thats not the premise. What are you pricing risk assets on . What are the expectations for earnings in the here and now . Where are treasury yields, the u. S. Dollar at its highest level since march, and, oh, by the way, oil now trading at 87. Thats an uncomfortable price. Earnings expectations are ticking positive. Do you think the market is adequately pricing forget about cuts do you think adequately pricing in the fed may be done . If you listen to waller, the last week allows the fed to proceed carefully, bostick said rates are high enough. If that starts to become the prevailing chorus from the fed, do you think the market has adequately priced all of that in . I dont think at the end of the day it should matter to investors. It matters for rates. You highlight where rates are. Rates matter more than anything. I think were beginning to grow comfortable with the premise rates will stay higher longer than we expected. I think what that ultimately means is maybe theres not the upside potential for equities because you have this competition coming from bonds and yields on the other side of that. I dont think the Federal Reserve is the variable anymore. There are factors for risk assets coming from the macro, the weakness in china and europe that will lead to a strong u. S. Dollar. Oil prices have come out of nowhere. What is that going to factor in . Save the oil and Energy Conversation because were going to go deep on that as that sector is the only positive today. It was the only positive in august. Josh, were back to work. Summer is unofficially over. What do we do from here . The recession odds cut down to 15 . Waller, i mentioned his commends. Whats the environment as we head into the fall . I think its tougher because we are already in sell the news mode and i think thats really what august was all about. I dont think it resets the market, materially puts us in a different environment. I think the bull is intact but harder to come by gains because stocks are not coming off those extremely lower levels and the prices to the upside get tougher. I dont want to do too much on energy here. I still very much believe that these stocks look like theyre all on the verge of big multiyear breakouts. Ill put a pin in that. What joe mentioned about the dollar is really important. We dont talk about the dollar a lot on this show but one of the most reliable inverse correlations in the macro environment. Im not a huge macro person but when you look at the charts, its undeniable. The dollar was down 4 on the year, which is material. The s p 500 peaked after that low was in. The dollar is now 5 off the july low. And the s p is about flat from that level. So there is a very strong inverse correlation there, and if youve got reason to believe that the dollar is going to continue to strengthen or not fade away again, its another thing that makes it tougher for stocks. Index wide for stocks, not for every company, and so i think we should be aware of that, talk more about it. Seasonally, youre going to hear people be like, oh, september is the worst month on average, going back to 1950. Its the worst month any preelection year. Stocks bottom in september a lot of the time or weve gotten trend changes as a result in late period september. Theres a lot of different ways to data mine the seasonality. Fall is usually better than august, and thats the way i feel now. Joe, the other point is september is not always so terrible when you come into it the way weve come into it this year where youve had a nice run. Yes. You have two opposing views i want to get your thing on. The ideal economy for powell, some say the data of late was goldilocks lake. Mike wilson has been saying the price is wrong, it doesnt match what earnings will be. We recommend defensive growth within cyclicals. Whats your take . Mike could be right but the problem is you tend to mute the voices where the information theyre providing in the present is not giving you much value. Lets be clear, over the course of this year, thats what makes a market. I just disagree with what mikes view is overall. Youre saying because hes been wrong this year, take what he says in september with a grain of salt . Absolutely. I would agree with that but i would say he probably has the highest probability to be correct. One other thing about seasonality. Bank of america put out a phenomenal note. When you are up 10 to 20 through the month of august, a 93 success rate being higher with an average return of 7. 8 . I understand what mike is saying. I dont want to go defensive. I dont believe in going defensive. What you have to do is you have to be diversified and look at areas of the market where maybe you havent seen the performance so far year to date. I think those areas could be well talk later about the sector, but beyond that sector you can look into financials, look at other sectors like in health care, and you are exploring for whats been missing in 2023, and thats my favorite word. Dispersion. We havent had it. What is defensive growth . What would you characterize, joe, defensive growth as . Some would say defensive growth is mega cap. I can give you some. Whats defensive growth . Im not saying he is. If you say go defensive and be in defensive growth, thats one of the reasons people would make the argument theyve been in mega caps. Let me answer real quick because i think a lot of times we try to communicate an answer we know exactly what everything is, and, quite candidly, i dont know what defensive growth means. Im sorry. I dont know how you can show me statistically how i could be positioned towards defensive growth in the market. Im telling you what weve heard from people the last at least eight or nine months is mega cap provides you the growth you want and is a bit of a defensive play, sitting on tons of cash. Am i wrong . I dont think youre wrong, but i think the thing is its hard to say defensive growth, oh, go with this sector. I can pick out from our portfolio, and we have done this recently, here are companies i see as defensive growth. Cisco systems is trading at 13 1 2 times earnings, which is completely different. They have growth coming whats the growth . Whats the rate . Single digits which is defensive growth. You have marriott where theres pentup demand. China is starting to travel again. A company i think is defensive growth its its off the radar. To me defensive growth is company by company saying where does the growth deviate from the cycle . Or Northrop Grumman trading at 18 times. We know theyre going to continue to grow. We know where that growth is coming from. United rentals, the infrastructure bill, theyre trading at 18 times. You got me until northrop gru grumman. Cisco, year to date, joe you questioned it. The stock is up 20 . Still only trading at 13 1 2. If youve been in cisco, youve been pretty happy this year. What i question is the Revenue Growth at a double digit pace. I think of companies that are growing 15 to 20 . I think of Companies Growing over multiple quarters, 15 to 20 . I want to be in growth where companies are profitable. What happened to mega caps . Theyre not bond proxies anymore . They never should have been bond proxies. Im not saying necessarily you, but i think its more simple than that. Is the Company Profitable . Yes. Growing 15 to 20 . Yes. Its growth. Josh,speaking of growth hi, buddy. Speaking of mega cap, cautious on the qs, some would suggest as tech goes, so goes the market. At least in the environment that we were in. Are we still in that environment . Do our hopes hang on mega caps . You could be as cautious on the qs as you want. Were going to get into the next earnings season, eight weeks from now and who will have the biggest share of the earnings . Its the same story over and over again. Could you say that these stocks have run enough this year . You totally could. Theyre growing earnings again, are more profitable now than last year and revenue is growing, too, and thats great, but the stock has more than doubled. At a certain point, you have to look at that and be like, all right, yeah. It matches the share price matches up with the growth outlook. Theres no opportunity left. You could do that, and its been right to do that in the past. The problem is you know meta is coming in in the fall and they will destroy it on earnings again, and the bears hate this. The stock will rally off of already high expectations. Its a pattern that dates back i think were watching, like, ten years of this. These companies have one or two bad quarters every three years, but for the most part, if youre an earnings driven investor, you cant ignore these stocks. You could be underweight. You could decide there are other places with the same growth and lower multiples, and thats where you want to focus. Fine. I got word just before the show of a new buy of yours, josh, and it is growth. And you can tell us whether you think its defensive growth. Maybe its growth. Its zoom. Zoom its not defensive growth. Your new buy. Can i have a trade while im talking . Zoom is breaking out. I make the high point about 73, 74 a share. You can see that was the peak in late march. It struggled in may. Once again it struggled 73. 92 in july. Its breaking above that level right now. This is purely on technicals. There was something fundamental. I have 60 employees in my firm and we were working with ring central and Customer Service has been not great. We were out there in the Enterprise Market looking for a competitor. Zoom had a really competitively priced product. Firms have been paying billions in fines for not using official communication channels. Billions, billions, billions. Because they had people using their own phone numbers texting clients which is not compliant. That has since been cleaned up in the big firms. I think the focus will change to smaller broker dealers. Everyone needs compliant telephony solutions. Its a technical breakout, in my opinion. I could be wrong. Earnings arent out yet but i think technically the stock could get back to 100 unless they have bad news now between the next time they report. Ive traded this stock in the past successfully. Im back in the trade right now. Joe . Hearing joshs trade, im wondering if the basket of stocks that we could think of as Growth Stocks that are not profitable, if, in fact, to where you began the show, scott, the Federal Reserve is done, they are no longer going to be raising rates. I wonder if the opportunity is actually in a lot of these unprofitable Growth Companies hey, joe that weve forgotten about. Can i stop you . Zoom is trading 16 times forward earnings. This is not an unprofitable stock. People stopped following this and gave up on it. It is not the same zoom as three years ago. The point is important joe is making. Swap out what weve been talking about and move into the underappreciated and less appreciated. Mike wilson said we reck risk off, hes saying money may move out of what we perceive as the most risky. On the zoom call maybe you took money out of something to fund the purchase that was overweight and youre moving into zoon. Totally underappreciated. I think more of a swapping of dollars. Are you saying, josh joe, are you suggesting the cathie w woodtype names . Maybe they get relief. Thats exactly what im thinking of. And josh is citing, i think, the forward earnings, on zoom, right . Not current earnings . Its current. Theyre profitable now. This is a 75 stock. Even if they fall shy of that there are not of i dont know if this is a mid cap. Not a lot of companies that are as profitable and a forward p e. I dont own it on earnings. The company is growing profitably. I think cathie wood does own it right now. Its not the same zoom as in 2020. It is an Enterprise Software name and valued as such. Thats fair. Lets get past zoom for a second. I think the premise im suggesting lets use it as a proxy for what youre suggesting. Is there and im asking the question and im not there currently but when the Federal Reserve stops and there is the pause, and maybe theres the indication theyre going to begin to cut, do those type of names begin to come back into favor once again . Or, are those names forever put on the shelf and just beneficiaries of the pandemic, beneficiaries free money. Of free money of the time . I think its a valid question. Is there a tolerance in this market for the foreseeable future for stocks that are not profitable . Period, end of story, no matter what the environment is. I really dont think for those that are not profitable. Higher for longer, even if its not higher here but it continues to be problematic to their businesses because they have coasted on free money to sustain them. You need to pick through the cathie wood portfolio and find the zoom, the gem in that portfolio. Broadly you cant say that. Coming out of the dotcom. Im looking at the top holdings. There are some. You cant say, hey, the whole portfolio is great because some remains unprofitable. There were so many blown up. 30 years later 20, sorry. Are still nowhere. But there were a few that were gems. I think theyre hard to find. Well keep our eye on zoo. The nasdaq is now positive. Well take a quick break. Coming up our chart of the day. Energy leading the way coming off its Third Straight positive day. Please dont go by harry casey, Richard Raymond finch sfx ping please dont go please dont go. Please dont go please dont go dont goooooo dont go away please dont go i may be known for my legendary football career, but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. the only trouble is knowing where to find them. Thats why i got xfinity. So, i can easily find and watch whatever sport im into all in one place without missing a thing. Even if its football, australian football, or football football. In a word its fitzcredible. I got to trademark that one. This season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to 100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. Sign up for xfinity rewards now. Welcome back. Our charlotte of the day is energy. Its leading the s p today trying, by the way, for its seventh straight positive session. Joe, im going to go to you first here. Were on pace for oil to have the eighth straight day of gains. Is it for real . So, youre going to have to accept more risk if you are looking at the spot price of oil and trying to invest accordingly in Energy Equity names. The spot price of oil is up 22 . If i think youre going to be able to invest in energy through exxon mobil and chevron, youre going to be disappointed. Youre going to have to certificate a higher bay to. Why . Tell me why you say that. What has happened right now the price of oil is moving with such strong momentum, you need to be positioning towards companies that, number one, have been underperforming while crude has been in a higher range and have a higher sensitivity to oil rallying and having a creative impact on their revenues. A more significant move up or down is not going to have more of the impact that a lot of these high beta names like a pioneer, like philips 66 or slumberger will have. Just understand you have to accept more risk. You have to go higher beta in your energy exposure. Chevron, exxon mobil is not getting it done. Josh . Totally agree. Joe is right. There are times when you want to be in the integrateds because they have Balance Sheets and theyre paying huge dividends, and that trade worked well last year. If youre a bull on energy, its time to stop jumping out of the basement window with a parachute. Youre going to have to scale down in market cap, scale up in beta or risk volatility, and i think you want to be more biased toward domestic names, towards small and mid cap because they have the most to go up if youre constructive on oil. I underperformed the xle but now thats starting to switch. And what this is, is a portfolio of all of the nonmajors and has Big Companies in here. The companies producing oil and conoco is 18 but you have pioneer, you have hess, philips 66. Look at the volume wags here. Youre paying less than ten times forward earnings based on forecast earnings for the group of stocks. Its 0. 77 times forward sales and youre getting a forward dividend yield and youre going to get the high beta trade as Energy Prices go higher and people try to buy the stocks to cap capitalize. That range was the top in november of 2022. This will be a bona fide technical breakout. Jenny . Im the basement window parachute jumper. Most of our energy is in the midstream space. I really still like that play and all this bullish scenario is says youre going to get your dividend yields on stocks. An interesting point where josh said play domestic, play mid. We are in total and shell. You have all the security but trading at almost half the multiple just because theyre overseas. I would look international. You covered just about everything. Jenny, theyre always cheaper than the u. S. Majors, and its not just because theyre domiciled overseas but in governments that are hostile to profitability. Josh, i know that, but the price differential is too wide for right now. It should narrow. Fair. If you want to get into the whole international play i dont. Its a great way to play them and they have huge, juicy dividends so you can maybe get your cake and eat it, too. One thing, on your beta part is interesting, if we think back to what pioneer said, 60 will pay out about a 5 and the 80 about 11 . You can see how much more profitable they are. Are you good . Yes, thanks. Silvana henao has the headlines. Scott, a federal court threw out alabamas proposed congressional map. This comes months after the Supreme Court ruled the current map diluted black voting power in the state. The panel of three stayed the latest map from alabamas Republicanled Legislature did not comply with orders to create a second majority black district. They order the next map be independently drawn. Jury selection is under way this morning in the trial for former President Donald Trump adviser Peter Navarro who faces contempt of Congress Charges for ignoring subpoenas. A judge dismissed the attempts last week to drop the charges when he claimed the president issued executive orders. The capitol doctor said Senate LeaderMitch Mcconnells health episodes show no evidence of being strokes or seizures. He froze up during a press conference, the second time in as many months he froze up while speaking in public. Scott . Thanks. Our calls of the day with one stock off 30 from its recent high. One Analyst Thinks the bad news is bak iedn. We debate it next. Me, but at Fisher Investments were clearly different. other money manager different how . You sell High Commission investment products, right . Fisher Investments nope. Fisher avoids them. other money manager well, you must earn commissions on trades. Fisher Investments never at Fisher Investments. other money manager ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. Fisher Investments no. We structure our fees so we do better when clients do better. That might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. At Fisher Investments, were clearly different. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. Calls of the day starting with disney. Reiterated overweight, wells fargo, the target cut to 110. Weve talked about it a lot lately. So much. I know you cant wait to talk about it again. What about this call . I think its rational. When things are ugly and theres a lot of turmoil, thats where you find opportunity. If you look at the numbers, its 9. 4 billion of operating income up 19 year over year which is impressive. If you exclude everything else, media movies, you have it trading at 20 times ebitda. Then youre ignoring that it has 200 million streaming customers, ignoring the network. Its still generating 7 billion of earnings. Ignoring the movie studio. You step back, look where it is now, its a 5 Free Cash Flow yield. I think the analysts like with facebook last year, meta, sorry, are really ignoring the cost cutting story. If they can cut costs, if you put a 20 times multiple on that get to 140, that is significant upside even if it takes three years to get there. Im sitting here being patient because thats the math that works for me. Joe, if you bought this thing at the high, youre mad. If you look at it oday, are you optimistic that you get in here, the bad is baked in and the stock recovers . Here is what i see with disney. Its very close to the march 18 low. That break since the fall of 2014. You have the technical factor that looks awful. The dispute with Charter Disney cannot raise fees on the cable tv providers and they have to recreate themselves and this is about streaming and the dominance of streaming and the future of streaming that has put Pricing Power in the consumers hands. If you were a College Student and able to launch your own business, were going to be a streaming surgeon, come to my house and every other older individual who doesnt know how to make the transition to streaming, you would make a lot of money. Thats the position consumers are in. They need to understand how it is they can pick and choose from a menu of streaming and move away and thats problematic for disney. It doesnt mean your math is wrong, or that the stock goes lower from here. It does mean, in my opinion, that you will have to wait. My only issue is with your word recreate. Weve seen Companies Like disney be experts at evolution. Disney, you have to give them credit for evolving. You dont bet against new york city when theyre in the dumdum. Clients are too loyal, their brands are too excellent. It will evolve. It still takes time. Fair enough. The next stock is American Express. Not a huge bump but it does get an jum great. Upgrade. The note was interesting. What they started to do was say, here is how Consumer Behavior is and theres going to be a maximum of an 8 late charge, and so that will hurt and help different credit cards. Because amex has a more corporate base like we see lulu with good numbers, walmart and Dollar General struggling, thats what this note is about. Sin kronny and bread are having a tough time. The share price doesnt reflect that. I think its an interesting, broader perspective note. Joe, lulu was upgraded today. They take it off. They go to market perform. Target goes to 366. The expectations versus reality gap has been our concern. Its finally correcting. What do you think about that . I think lululemon has been a core holding. You are seeing a remarkably balanced and well diversified outperformance whether you measure them by channels, whether you measure them by geography. This is a cap that has taken itself and put it in position where they are the premiere brand and theyre doing so in an environment where a lot of their competitors are underperforming in critical markets. The stock had a nice republic. Arming up is next. Arm kicking off its ipo road show and what is expected to be the largest Public Offering in a number of years. The debate of semis and how to play that. I was told my Small Business wouldnt qualify for an erc tax refund. You should get a Second Opinion from Innovation Refunds at no upfront cost. Sometimes you need a Second Opinion. [coughs] good to go. Yeah, i think ill get a Second Opinion. All these walls gotta go ah ah ah id love a Second Opinion. No. Im going to get a Second Opinion. With Innovation Refunds, theres no upfront cost to find out. So why not check like i did for my Small Business . Take the first step to see if your Small Business qualifies for the erc. And were back. Arm kicking off its ipo road show, seeking a valuation of more than 50 billion. Well use it as a vehicle to talk about this trade. The smh is coming off its best week. Josh, do you want a piece . No, i would be avoiding it. I think theres a little bit of sleight of hand going on here, nothing corrupt. Stlfs a deal in the works nvidia was going to buy the company. Soft banks vision fund is in trouble. All they do is take ls. This has value. This is not a great time to buy arm. If you dont understand the difference between the two things, you dont belong in the ipo market. This is a company with negligible growth, and they want a 5 billion valuation. Just understand why this is happening now. Theres a lot of hype around chips because of ai and thats what theyre capitalizing on. Its an Important Company in the mobile phone ecosystem. Its a giant there. Its very much like qualcomm, greatest invasions are behind it. Its not a growth company. I dont like the setup. Im avoiding it. Joe, what about you . Whether its nvidia or broadcom, you can look at amd. To me nvidia and broadcom will get you the exposure you need in the semis. And i think its as simple as that. Whats interesting about that is that everyone who is i dont want to use the word betting against but not believing and suggesting the valuation is extreme and that this is a bubble that is building in ai, look at what nvidia has done and what broadcom has done in their ability amds lisa su was making comments i think in a conference positive not only about ai and the potential in what theyre already seeing as well but in terms of pcs and that mark getting better. I think it went green on the positive comments she had. A stock that was in the red she has made positive comments. I wanted to get that out there. This happened in the last 30 minutes. I dont think people are looking at semis, were seeing improvement, its about the ai story. The point im trying to make, universally were ready to dismiss nvidia and broadcom and an indicator the market had reaches an inflection point. The revenue was there. The growth is there. The potential is there. And the Price Performance wasnt that bad. What was the high in broadcom . Price is not telling you that this is a peak. All right. Up next, mike santoli right here with his midday word next. G ap makes trading easier. With its customizable options chain, easytouse tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. E trade from Morgan Stanley. Power e trades easytouse tools make complex trading less complicated. Custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. E trade from Morgan Stanley. 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Cant overcome the boundaries we face. so Morgan Stanley is partnering with the Womens Tennis Association to remove them. because this game is for everyone. mike santoli is here. We have yields making a run at the old highs, and its the big Growth Stocks holding up the market, just like everybody expects. I think part of this theme, which is the moves higher in longer term bond yields creates the anxiety, i think, because its about restraint on growth. And so the landing will be left soft. Industrials, a real weak point today. I wonder if thats kind of a little bit of, you know, momentary rotation away. Thats why small caps are down as much as they are. Mid caps have three times the s p 500s weight in industrials and small caps have twice the weighting. So it seems like the overnight global pmi is weak enough that its putting a wet blanket on that. I think everyone is kind of in this. Was that a perfect jobs numbers on friday or is there risk of further deceleration to the point where it will be uncomfortable . It seems like thats the debate raging. Is energy a boone or a headwind . Last year, Energy Stocks outperformed everything. Absolutely. And for good reason everybody is pointing out they do seem like the i think a boone, until theyre an impediment to growth. I dont think youre inflicting that much pain in terms of energy costs. We have been here multiple times before in terms of the per gallon price at the pump, relative to average hourly earnings. Its nothing special here. Were in the middle of a longterm range. I dont think thats going to be what pushes us over unless it spikes in a sudden way. Thats the kind of jolt that is required to really knock the consumer off. Thats mike santoli. See you later on, on closing bell. Final trades are next. Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. 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Arista networks. Jenny . Crown castle. Theyll return to real growth in about two years. The dividend will continue to grow. They use cell phone towers. Talk about a defensive place to be. Collect your dividends. Joe, energy, oih . I like joshs trade, but you can also own the oih. Three sectors positive today, led by energy, up almost 1. 5 . Otherwise, youve got tech and Comm Services in the green. Ill see you on closing bell at 3 00 eastern time. In the meantime, the exchange starts now. Scott, thanks. Welcome to the exchange. Im kelly evans, and heres whats ahead. Goldman slashing their recession odds, taking it all the way down to just 15 for the next 12 months now. The fed governor almost june la jubilant today. But will september surprise us like it almost always does to the downside . Plus, the one trend our market guest is watching that could pose a threat not just to stocks, but also to the feds 2 inflation target. And its not oil. He j