Nvidia down 4 obviously we have the big inflation data coming out tomorrow but, joe, whats driving this we knew that the inflation data was coming out tomorrow, with he knew we have had these economic worries, percolating talks about impending recession coming back up again yesterday whats going on now . The treasury auctions are important this week. After the three year auction at 1 00 p. M. There was opt mirk, markets lifted off of the lows, there was a belief and the demand was relatively strong whats happened this morning is that price has reversed, a lot of that optimism that was represented in an end of day bounce and now you have broken below yesterdays low. A little bit of technical selling pressure i think theres more nervousness in the 1 00 p. M. Tenyear auction is critical today because weve seen the long end of the curve where yields have been backing up, thats where this battle is going on right now with the Asset Management industry thats Long Duration and then hedge funds and speculators like bill akman who are short treasuries the 1 00 p. M. Tenyear treasury will be important but overall this is a market thats doing what its supposed to be doing i think this is healthy. Its correcting, its targeting the 50day moving average at 4427 and the market coming into the month of august was clearly in need of a correction and, again, the price of oil is another element thats not helping the overall sentiment. Amy, ubs was a no today, also expecting more volatility coming theyre talking about expectations for a minor recession which echos some of the notes we heard yesterday are you worried about a recession and how key is the cpi number going to be for you, your portfolio and what the markets expectations are about what the feds next move may be in september. I think its early to worry about a recession. I think we will get a recession eventually but doesnt feel like the next quarter or next six months im not as focused on recession, but typically when you see this big run up in multiples like we saw in the first half of the year, thats followed by very strong eps growth. I dont think were going to get that i think we are in for choppy waters as joe was saying, the cpi is important tomorrow, there is a weirdly hard compare july, july year offer year, last year july the cpi was lower so i do think this could be a noisy number, but when you look at when the cpi and rates diverge, like were having now, rates tend to be more important. In all instances except for one it was you were right to follow whats happening in rates. If rates continue to go up as i do think were in for choppy waters for the next six months. What do you think the chances of some strong volatility are tomorrow obviously weve seen a lot of volatility almost every time the cpi numbers come out over the last 12 months in every direction. How should people be positioned ahead of the number . You should be positioned in the stocks that you like, that you value long term. I think its very difficult to play a number and generally a losing proposition so given where volatility is now where the vix is you should have protection in your portfolio anyway, but here is whats contributing to it, the market was in an overbought position, joe and i talked about that right before the decline, timing was precient. You had a downgrade of the u. S. Credit rating, ultimately it means frankly nothing, but you also had then a downgrade of banks, they werent happy with one Rating Agency being the headline, figure how am i going to get back in the headlines so they came down, downgraded some banks. Talking about the moodys report. Right, the moodys downgrade. And so that added to it. Then youre hearing the statistics on credit card balances and credit card blink wednesdayees so thats creating more nervousness. When you put all that together as well as joe mentioned, rising oil prices, which its too soon to filter into core cpi and you may see top line, its not too soon for it to start filtering into core ppi because of the feedstock. So they ignore oil price from top line because of the fed focuses on the core. Youve got all those new, you know, headwinds where as everything was a tailwind before, soft landing, et cetera. Et cetera. Nobody is questioning the soft landing, that wasnt questioning it before, but that became consensus and it became consensus that the fed is done now when you start to sort of nibble away at that consensus this is what happens so markets go down, you cant really get excited about it either way unless theyre particularly catalyst but you never know what the catalysts are that really kill it. As far as tomorrow, going back to your original question of course there will be volatility. There will be volatility not necessarily on the numbers that you see print but whats driving those numbers and composing those numbers. Right now everybody not everybody but the majority is taking for granted that you will continue to see cpi coming down, you will continue to see ppi come down. I personally think you are in the stubborn area and that youre start to see people taking a look at portfolios to say valuation does matter. You look at nvidia, they had product launches yesterday when was the last time you didnt see the market respond positively to that right . It sold off and sold off again so unlessnvidia really nails a quarter that stock is very vulnerable but so are the others. Talking about the super chip announcement yesterday and all of that. Rob, what do you make of i mean, nvidia down 4 today, such a high flier and name we talk about all the time whats the reasoning before i say anything its hard for me to imagine weiss being more impress ifl concise than he was right there. We all improve, every day we all get better. Right thats relative to rob, though, in fairness. So 99 of the world is concise. Okay. I would say from a cpi standpoint before we get to the valuation ceiling that we appear to have hit, and the broadening out of the market, its hard for me to imagine even if we get a downward print that its going to the market will be a coiled spring and really rally from here. Thats partly because youve seen valuations which momentum has turned on, momentum began to turn on tech valuationes in really midjuly and weve since given up a lot, but i dont think its enough. You have portfolio managers, i think, really scrambling to make sure that theyre positioned in names as scott as steve has said for a lower valuation regime and so we amy was talking about it with me before the show, we are all trimming our winners that are exceedingly expensive, even though the businesses are delivering and its because those businesses have to deliver exceptionally for there not to be earnings in the price risk associated with it the other side about the Technology Names is they are incredibly exposed to race lets say we dont get what we think, which is this continued golden path trajectory that the fed is on, this disinflationary kind of path, i do think that it poses morris you can for high valuation names and thats partly why weve been thinking about trimming and being thoughtful in those names. So its an environment where you have to be selective in which you dont. Amy, you are trimming nvidia as well. We did. We just conflated nvidia this was the second time this year weve trimmed the name. It had nothing to do with the announcements yesterday, just managing position size weve owned nvidia for a decade now so its been a great stock for a long time, just managing the size and keeping it in check. Got it. That makes sense. Theres an interesting note here about apple from bespoke, too, talking about apple shares growing 7 since earnings last friday, 136 trading days dating back to january 20th does that tell you about the technical nature of the market and what may be following. Apple is to core to portfolio holdings. I dont think its apple alone, i think its tesla that has been in decline, following the seasonal script that you expect after a july earnings season, its pulling back, in support of moving averages and i think you set an expectation right now. Thats what investors need to do they need to set the expectation, they need to understand, in fact, what amy has done with her positioning in nvidia, is it time to begin to scale back some of the positioning size im not suggesting to get out of the mega caps but take a look at what your ownership is on monday i discussed potentially having an equally weighted strategy relative a market cap weighted strategy lets still own the mega caps but respect what the overall positioning size is. No, i dont think any of this should be surprising to investors, i think theres a seasonal normalcy to it and given the overextended technical nature that steven talked about, apple pulling back below the 50 day moving average, i dont think thats problematic at all. I think thats more healthy. Speaking of mega cap tech, weiss, you own microsoft, alphabet, amazon, meta how are you feeling about the ownership right now . Ive trimmed amazon, trimmed meta. Okay. Because if you bought these stocks you have a lot bigger position as a percentage of your portfolio than you did when they started because theyve done well so ive trimmed those look, meta is cheap relative to the others microsoft would be the biggest beneficiary of ai because the full product renewal they will have to revamp, you will have to buy into it. Short term im not surprised by the decline in these names, but, you know, youre back to where you were with meta, i mean, back to where you were a few weeks ago, right, before the earnings. Then it went back up, right, so you sold off 10 , when users started going away after the big sign up, came back 297, wherever it was, you went back to 330, now you are back to 305. Thats a nature of the market in owning the stocks. They are not overvalued in my view vefr suss the others. Microsoft slightly overvalued, maybe now its coming more into more reasonable change, but you just cant make something of these moves. These negligible moves in terms of how far they perform over the last year or two years if you want to be in it you have to ignore it and get on with your life. Rob, you are in meta and other mega cap tech but meta is the only one you are overweight. Why . That was our stock summit pick coming into the year. Basically what steve said, real advertising, price coming into the year, was inexpensive, still relatively inexpensive, a refocus on the core guys which was driven enthusiasm around the name when we think of apple, microsoft and google, you know, google has some of those same other trends, alphabet has some of the same trends that youre seeing in meta, but the other two, two of our Largest Holdings just by that you tour of their size in the index, no he is are names weve trimmed throughout the year because of price, not because of business. If you think about apple right now just to bring it back full circle, you really want to stand on the other side of that cash wall and be underweight with the opportunity that they have with crash, and from a valuation perspective its gotten pretty expensive. So, you know, weve decided to be neutral to the index there. Weve also been overweight microsoft all year and based on valuation and the most recent Earnings Report pulled back to a neutral stance so i think its also tough for i think most of us manage money for taxable investors and its really hard to be too cute and completely jettison these names. Youre positioning relative to the index can have a really big impact. Fair enough lets get to with. Ti crude oil hitting its highest level of the year as Energy Stocks try for their longest win streak since january joey, you brought that up. What are the drivers is it technical . Is it fundamental . Is it suggesting the economy is rebounding around the world. Lets be clear on one thing, this will be, i believe, front and center for the next several weeks. Where are the prices for not only oil, but the price as well for natural gas . As were speaking natural gas got above 3, it last was above 3 in march. So think first about cpi last time we got a cpi report the price of oil was 75 right now it is 83. 25 last time we had an Inflation Report the price of natural gas was 2. 60 now its 3. An interesting dynamic predicting the price of oil is difficult to do but its obvious oil is at the upper end of its range. In fact, this morning spot oil took out its high for the year whats going on . We obviously have intensification of rhetoric and actual military conflict in the black sea between russia and ukraine, there is a concern there surrounding potential exports of oil on the other side of that, which is rather peculiar, Domestic Oil Production is at its highest level sincemarch of 2020, its 12. 6 Million Barrels per day domestic oil supply is rising, the concern is about demand. You have these perplexing conditions currently that exist for the price of oil and collectively i think what you do with all that information is you have to maintain your exposure to energy and i said this on our last quarterly rebalance, i was remarkably surprised that we took the energy weighting higher from 10 up to 11 thats well above the 4 for the s p 500. So some favorite names i mentioned valero the other day, schlumberger, heff, halliburton, marathon petroleum, these are all ways to get Energy Exposure. I think you need to maintain that Energy Exposure because energy will be front and center for the next several weeks by the way, hurricane season. Dont forget about that rob . Yeah, so i think this was our favorite pick for the second half of the year, energy now, truthfully weve been overweight for a bit but not as overweight many investors have given up positioning is light, valuations are not stretched at all and it serves as a geopolitical hedge last year we had 28 billion in inflows into tech, 20 billion in outflows from energy still trades at 12 times and if oil prices kind of continue their ascent, it throws a wrench into this disinflationary narrative. Were using energy as a hedge to that golden path that were on so far it looks like its working in the second half. Amy, it sounds like you believe in what rob is saying to the point that they are not expensive, that they are relatively cheap. They are relatively cheap and they have really bad earnings and they weathered it very well. I think thats a very good sign, it tells you expectations are very low but also to joes point on the supply side uhoh peck talking about a lot of discipline and cutting back production so you dont have even though the u. S. Is at relative highs globally, supply is still constrained and thats very good as long as capital discipline, it remains controlled, which it has been, it hasnt been this controlled in past cycles, these stocks look like theyre good cash flow generators as rob said theyre underowned, theyre inexpensive and i think demand is still going up. Even though Global Growth is slow, its not were not and people are buying evs, were still not seeing a decline in oil demand and i think thats going to continue. As long as the threat that we are not going to use oil a decade from now, thats going to keep Capital Investment constrained and probably make these stocks work. Favorite names in the space we own eog, schlumberger, champion x and shell. Two schlumberger fans. I own eog as well, another exceptional name to own if you want exposure to energy. Coterra energy another name you could look at as well. The correlation is really, really high. We have thames that our research likes and has identified, but if energy works energy is going to work. I dont think you can go wrong with exxon or chevron, you could go with the Large International majors as well to get the exposure the key is what gives you the margin of safety in some of the names is that the call is wrong. It knows they are the best executers in the best. Thats why you and joe mentioned eog, why we own eog, one of the most efficient operators in the space. When the oil market corrects, when pricing corrects, these names tend to do better. They are named that are levered to it and names that are not quite as sensitive to it. I dont want to pick you on you, weiss, i think you are the only one without energy. Because joe owns so much energy thats my exposure. Im i own freeport, freeport is a decentsized position and that also benefits from commodity growth. I think theres speculation in both asset classes, both commodities that drive it, perhaps more so than fundamentals both up and down, but im very comfortable in freeport because that will benefit from evs, copper pricing is doing okay, its apart from the highs, i think the trend will be higher my view on china they will drive copper even higher as it will oil. Thats how im playing it, its not as direct but it benefits from the same fundamentals. I think we will dig into china later. We will check out shares of disney lower prior to earnings coming out later were back in a few minutes. You founded your Kayak Company because you love the ocean not spreadsheets. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire welcome back disney earnings are due out today after the bell in addition to the deal with penn entertainment investors will be focused on streaming, parks and so much more julia joins us with the setup. Disney is facing challenges ranging from an ad contraction to cord cutting, concerns about the performance of florida parks, widening losses in the direct to Consumer Division and Big Questions about the future of the strategy around streaming as well as linear tv the revenues expected to grow 4. 6 , earnings per share pr projected to decline 11 thanks to widening losses in the direct to consumer streaming business espn is sure to be in focus this afternoon on the companys Earnings Call amid on the heels of the sports giant announcing its launching a branded sports book with penn entertainment in a 2 billion cash and stock deal this comes after ceo bob iger says hes looking for minority investors in espn and weve reported that hes talking to the nba, mlb, nfl and nhl. Now, there are some other key topics, iger is sure to be asked about on todays call in addition to espn his plans for hulu, its integration into disney plus, as well as his plans to buy outcome cast my mortgage stake his interest in selling disneys linear tv networks and any commentary iger has on the impact of the writers and actors strike that continues to drag o on i know you will have a lot of action to bring us later today and of course into tomorrow. Thank you so much. Amy, im going to turn to you because you own disney i understand its a small position. Sure. Still, what are you looking for today. Julia ran us through a laundry list of things. So many things to focus on tonight and we are not big quarter to quarter investors, were longterm investors. We did trim disney back earlier in the year to a relatively small position i do like it long term, i think they have great content, great assets like espn that they can monetize but its going to be messy and theyre completing in the streaming market with players that have very deep pockets like the apples and goggles of the world which makes it noisy and i think people will focus on the streaming losses and i do think that will take while to turn around longer term i dont think disney has ever been this cheap relative to itself in history but there is reason for that cheapness. Your expectations are pretty low. I think its been the worst performer in the dow expectations are low i wouldnt be surprised if they needed low expectations, but there is a lot of hair, a lot of noise, a lot of moving parts going on and so, you know, look, i think if anyone can do it iger can do it but you also have succession who comes after iger . Theres a lot of pros, but everybody is foes used on the cons, im not sure when that changes. I do think at some point it does change but probably not anytime very soon. Weiss, if you are looking for a winner when it comes to streaming it looks like netflix is your go to, no the disney. Netflix s but its not a core position i trimmed a little of that as well i still own it you have to buy netflix when its down. Netflix is in the drivers seat because they arent worried about Balance Sheet whether they should be or not, they have a huge spend, but all the other streaming services which i dont think were competitive with netflix from a product or customer standpoint, they are all under pressure so they are all cutting back in content and this is a business where content is key so i think netflix will do quite well it will bounce back, it has up and down quarters based on subscriber growth, this time a couple other factors involved in the decline, but they are absolutely the clear winner with the biggest reach. Thats why. Joe, you are not in disney and youre sold out of netflix. We got profit on netflix. As far as disney, its something for all investors they should focused on and aware i think the turn around is beginning, the initial stages are there. There is clearly a lot of work to do, for instance, they have to negotiate on the nba contract which ends at the end of the 2425 season, you can talking about that coming at a price tag four times what the crept price tag is now there is still a lot of heavy lifting. I dont know that i would sit here today with disney trading around ion 85 and 90 and say you want to bet on it going lower further. To amys point theres its not as if theres going to be a single catalyst to get this stock going, its the collective of just kind of overcoming the challenges that theyve been hamstrung by over the last year. They have to get through all these difficulties i dont think its a one single thing. I think the price action today is somewhat evident of that. I thought there would be more excitement surrounding this relationship to where they are not an actual Sports Betting en tint, but they have the relationship with penn. Right right. Its interesting, its fascinating and adds another layer of interest on the call today and hopefully we will get more detail. Lets move over to headlines with pippa stevens. The Biden Administration is announcing a new system to track heatrelated illness officials said the National Dashboard would map Emergency Services responding to heatrelated illness calls and create the ems heat tracker to ensure medical aid gets to the people who most need it. Wework isnt sure it can stay in business the coworking space provider is facing losses in a tight cash pile amid major changes in the way people work. The interim ceo says the startup that was once worth 47 billion is now seeing fewer memberships and more churn the stock has fallen 95 since going public and is valued at around only 450 million now. And amc is looking to expand its branded food offerings beyond popcorn to chocolate and gummy candies. The ceo of the theater chain says those new items could be at the concession stand by late this year or early next year amc will continue to sell other companys products but expects the higher margin candy will boost profits. Back over to you. Private label gum gummies okay i guess, why not pippa, thank you very much. Coming up, our call of the day, a big downgrade for one beaten down crowd stock. We will debate the call when we return nks data. No big deal . Go on. Well, what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid Cloud Solution to connect data across clouds, then analyze all that data with watson. Okay, but this needs to meet our. Security standards . Yup. Compliance standards . Mmhmm. So they get the insights they need. Yup. In real time. Check. To make quick decisions . Check. Aaaand check. Thats the solution ibm and a global bank created. What will you create . Ibm. Lets create. This thing, its making me get an ice bath again. What do you mean . These straps are mindblowing they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. And you are . Im an investor. In invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to. Nasdaq 100 innovations like. Wearable training optimization tech. Uh, how long are you. Im done. Im okay. Opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. Its raising capital to help companies change the world. Opportunity is making the dream of Home Ownership a reality. And driving the world forward to a Greener Energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. At ice, we connect people to opportunity. Welcome back to halftime now for our call of the date down grading down dog. Posted its second worst day every after issuing guidance joe, you own this name what do you think . Talk about what i did in early may i bought this stock at 86 a lot of the reasoning was i believed this Infrastructure Software company would be a leader in generative ai. The stock rallied subsequent to that is correct i sold half my position at 96. I still maintain the other half of the position today, a look at it statistically if i break even its somewhere slightly above 76 i expect the stock to continue to be under pressure it was one of the favorite emerging names on wall street. The guidance was not good, thats clear i bought the stock on the belief that in the long term this company would be a significant contributor and part of that winner take all universe for generative ai. So its about how you manage a position and what flexibility you are able to give yourself getting out of half at 96 allows me to stay in the position a little bit longer, give them the benefit of the doubt and to see ultimately if they could utilize generative ai to increase revenue, but i want to be very candid on this, right now the momentum is down, the pressure is clearly pointed to the down side and im probably going to get stopped out of the stock before the generative ai contribution and the stock will end up being a scratch for me in terms of the trade. Amy, obviously steeple may be late to this one, the stock is down 17 or so, to sound grading it now is like, okay, obviously and the guidance Going Forward is not good. Generally, though, is this a stock that you would look for for an opportunity in generative ai or do you believe its going to come too late. We do own some names in the space we dont own data dog, as rob said earlier weve been moving down valuation in our stocks cadence designed systems which we love has had a fantastic year, we trimmed it recently it had a blow out quarter, blow out earnings and guidance and the stock was up 2 or 3 . That tells me there is a lot of good news baked into the names already. You need to get blowout numbers which in this environment will be hard. Companies dont have the budgets, they are not raising their i. T. Budgets 20 , 30 . Theyre spending on generative ai but some still dont know what that really means i think i do think this space has gotten overdone, were going to probably wait for even greater pull back to get more interested. In addition the bar has been raised significantly it is one of the sectors earnings will expected to be up in 23 and 24 you have demographics in play, you have a higher bar to jump over later on. And so you have to be really focused on what you own. You have to love it and you have to make sure its priced right. Amy brings up a point about how expensive data dog is as well. Rob, you also own cadence design. We do listen, this is a beneficiary of Semiconductor Design needs and the whole investment in the Ai Infrastructure so its a great business, right. Yeah. Yeah it is. I mean, obviously this is an area where we need to have intense focus but also intense scrutiny because so much is still unknown. If you listen to the cadence call they were talking a lot about ai but then he went back to all the other things. At some point it was autonomous driving, 5g, cryptocurrency. We have had she is fads come and go that have been driechb r d and markets. Theres always the next thing. You want the companies that can flex and move to whatever people are focused on. Theres only five stocks left in the joe etf that have been owned since inception in november of 2020 and cadence design is one of them and its probably one of the least talked about Software Technology companies on our show, but its a remarkably resilient Profitable Company and it has such a moat within its business universe its something that i would buy even here today at 224. Cadence, we need to book mark that one. We have breaking news on apple. Steve kovach has the headlines. News out of the Supreme Court saying that this is in the ongoing case between epic games the company that makes fortnite and apple. A few years ago epic sued them basically saying that before this case can get to the Supreme Court apple is allowed to keep its current payment rules for in app payments this is a big contentious thing between developers that apple takes a cut of every trin. In the original case apple lost one count of the several counts that said developers basically cant put messaging in their apps that tell people you can go outside of the Apple Ecosystem to make these payments Justice Kagan according to reuters putting out a ruling saying apple is allowed to continue doing that until this case gets to be heard. This is a minor setback for epic games, but still this case has a long way to go before its finalized, court. Thank you very much for bringing us that update. Shares of apple moving lower we talked about earlier in the show how they are below the 50 day moving average. New developments out of washington as the white house takes aim at investing in china. The fallout for the china trade when halftime returns. Whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined Risk Management are needed most. Drawing on deep expertise across the worlds public and private markets in pursuit of longterm returns. Pgim. Our investments shape tomorrow today. fan 1 there ya go thats what im talkin about josh allen is this your plan to watch the game today . hero fan uh, yea. I have to watch my neighbors nfl sunday ticket. josh allen its not your best plan. But you know what is . Myplan from verizon. Switch now and theyll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. hero fan this plan is amazing josh allen another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. fan 1 that was josh allen. fan 2 mmhm. vo for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. A 449 value. Plus, get a free Samsung Galaxy s23. Only on verizon. Were watching a developing story out of d. C the white house is planning to detail new restrictions on certain American Investments in china. Our eamon javers is at the white house with more information. Its been in the works for months but it looks like today is going to be the day that the Biden Administration releases a new executive order to restrict some u. S. Investment in High Tech Industries in china, among the sectors expected to be impacted by this announcement are quantum computing, Artificial Intelligence and advanced semiconductors. Also expected is a reporting process for investors to disclose their chinese deals to u. S. Authorities across a much wider range of investment types. We dont expect investments outside these specific high tech sectors to be prohibited here today and we do expect a detailed announcement to come at 4 00 this afternoon. A couple things to watch for in this will be how long the industry has to weigh in before the rule goes into effect, exactly which technologies end up being listed in this and how or if the investment disclosures will be protected from Public Disclosure the announcement comes at a time of increasing tension between washington and beijing and ahead of a trip to beijing later this month by commerce secretary Gina Raimondo she will be the latest in a series of cabinet officials to conduct highlevel talks in china aimed at reducing the same tensions the move today will play into a discussion of dew coupling of the american and chinese economies but in some ways it reinforces a trendest thats been taking place, Foreign Direct Investment in china has fallen 67 since the five years before the pandemic to the lowest level since the records began being kept 25 years ago. In some ways that decoupling is already happening no matter what the white house does, but we will watch for the specific rules later today. Back over to you. Very interesting. The slow breakup but thats widely predicted thank you for bringing that to us weiss, i know for a long time you were bearish on china but youve dipped your toe in the water with alibaba when you hear about the further decoupling does that give you pause . No, it actually emboldens me because as you cut back on foreign investment, which has been happening for a while and accelerated within we saw what happened with russia, right, you dont want to be a u. S. Company with having major assets there and frankly hasnt worked out for for as many as its worked out for, yum, et cetera, its been a disaster for others. So here is why it emboldens me, if youre losing foreign capital coming in and you have youth in employment at 21 , it could even be double, who knows, xi has to has to provide major liquidity to the economy there so im not investing in companies that aredoing business outside the u. S. , im investing this Domestic Companies that will do quite well there alibaba has a number of triggers also, they will spin off a number of their businesses so that will create value on some of the parts basis thats why im not worried about it i think it actually helps my case because youre losing foreign capital, you need more investing capital. So does anybody really think that china is so different that it wont be what has been done in every other country, low rates, stimulus injecting as much as you can in the economy to get growth going. You have to do that otherwise xi will be out of power before you know it. How much of it, though, steve, is pushing on a string right now . I mean, the old playbook doesnt always work focusing on fixed investment and, you know, it becomes a little a little more challenging in an environment like this. And with all the undertones about, youknow, whats happening in russia, ukraine, the possibility of taiwan. I mean, these are political risks that are more significant, i think, than weve seen in the past. Definitely more significant than taiwan, you said by the end of the decade, but cant be blind to whats happening with russia maybe if russia and ukraine didnt happen taiwan would be more of a glide path towards conflict taiwan semi has major facilities in china so its all interlinked, there are lots of things you would have to unwind maybe they will just take over the facility, theyve done that before so i just dont think that i think theres a possibility they can after taiwan, but not anytime soon and maybe not ever given whats happened, right would you do it . I mean so theyve got an economy thats really not good, its deflationary. Thats not good for a population, thats not good for the ruling party they have to change it around. Joe, i know you are in yum china. And its a trade and thats all this is. Everything that were talking about with china it is about a trade. If you could identify domestic consumption which yum china is, then youve got a reason to be in china otherwise you think about china, you think about the emerging markets and there are other places to go in the emerging markets now. India recently traded to an all time high, brazil is cutting rates, mexico is paused on its rate hikes, indonesia will cut rates. Theres other opportunities, the supply chain is moving away from china and going to taiwan, malaysia, vietnam. The emerging markets story is finally more about a universe, a basket of sovereigns that have investment, that have Earnings Growth and consumption, not about a narrow concentration to what china is doing. I didnt put it on as a hedge but jacobs had a good quarter, stock has done well, take advantage of the on shore supply chain. I think i will do well in china but again a risk. Up next mike santelljos i in us with midday words, Halftime Report will be right back businesses need 5g solutions today. Thats why they choose tmobile for business. Mlb partners with tmobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. Aaa relies on tmobiles network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. And were helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Welcome back Mike Santelli joins us with his midday work. It looks like were reversing trends a little bit. Yeah, its been common the last few days, actually, to have a little bit of a bounce yesterday was strong today has also started around the time of the european close were continually testing and going through last weeks lows if you just looked at a 10day s p chart there, you see the down trend thats been connecting all the highs from the day is starting to develop that has peoples attention. Its short term. I think were in this multiweek process, where we kind of celebrated that we had soft landing as the premise for what was going on so we had a heightened sensitivity to anything that threatens that happy scenario, which would mean higher yields, maybe no longer a linear decline in inflation Energy Stocks going up, Energy Prices going up. I think its just an excuse for necessary consolidation. We can still have it be the case, that its a normal pullback you get jumpy this time of the year because you never know if its going to be something that knocks things further off course thank you very much, mike appreciate you joining us. Amy, you are making moves in the redale space well break down that trade, coming up next welcome back amy, you were making another move, did this have anything to do with china . It was not the primary reason were trimming it. It is one contributor. But where we saw weakness last quarter was in the u. S. Aspirational consumer. Generally speaking, were more concerned about the Global Consumer the consumer has been amazingly robust, xwgiven that condition, and were getting more concerned with the consumer Going Forward from here. So we trimmed this, which has been a big position for us this is our second trim of lvmh this year, but if it was just sort of moving away from the consumer event and were looking at the Consumer Report . Yoi dont think this is goin to be a quarter issue, they marked the weakness. So its not a super near term issue, just acknowledgement the stock has done really well for a long time, as has luxury in general, luxury has done very well i dont think its going to crash any time soon, but were just managing position sizes and taking a little bit off the table and going into cheaper sectors, honestly. Got it. K th halftime. Final trades is next rude. Who are you . Im an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this Smart Fitness mirror. Im also mr. Leg day. 1989 anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. I go through a lot of pants. Before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Welcome back joe, youre seeing Something Interesting here absolutely. This is not a good thing, you have to keep your eye on the price of oil, because its going to tell you where the price of the s p is going so when the price of oil topped out today at 84. 65, thats when that occurred in the s p the s p is attempting a little bit of a rally thats an uncomfortable place to be in. Unfortunately, the macro is taking hold. In 50 seconds, well get the tenyear options and in 50 seconds, well do final trades. So its time for final trades. Kick us off. Humana. A lot of talk is about pfizer and lily with their obesity drugs, but you know who benefits the most the health insurers. Obesity affects 42 of the population it causes so much sickness, cardiac, you know, diabetes, et cetera if you have lower instances of that, you have higher profitability. Championx its a mid cap Oil Services Company that focuses on optimalization of assets we like it for the longterm all right that does it for halftime. Thanks for joining us. The exchange starts now. Exchange. Im kelly evans. Here is what is ahead this market are we in a down market . The s p down five of the last six sessions today could make it six out of seven. Are we headed for a 10 pullback like carter and others have been warning . Well debate that in a moment. But energy is bucking the trend once again, and the sector is up as crude oil hits its highest point of the year, pushing headline Inflation Higher again. In fact, well look at