Transcripts For CNBC Power 20240704

An updated vaccine should be able by the fall, but the question is will enough people take it, kelly we were just talking about the return of Manhattan Office space. But lets get a check on the markets where the dow is up 39 points today, leading the way while the s p is down 11 or a quarter point. 45. 77. Nasdaq down a third of a percent and caterpillar is a big reason the dow is holding up. Adding more than 100 points after an earnings beat the shares are soaring 8 prts. More on those results in just a moment jetblue cutting outlook as demand for Domestic Travel is starting to soften thats an 8 drop for jblue in the bond market, weaker numbers. Jobs report on friday but the 10year popping today. The yield over 4 , the yield on the 30 year on its highest level since january. Well talk to Rick Santelli coming up. All right. Lets dive into Second Quarter results now from some of the big pharmaceutical names pfizer posting earnings at top wall street expectations, but the company did miss on sales. While merck beat on top and the bottom lines both names were impacted by dwindling sales for their covid19 products, which comes at a time where cases are starting to move up again. According to cdc data, hospitalizations jumped 12 for the week ending july 22nd. How concerned should we be about a current wave, if it is that . And what could lie ahead in the fall as children go back to school lets ask our friend dr. John torres, nbc news senior medical correspondent. Are we really seeing a spike in cases, john . And how concerned should we be yeah, good afternoon. We are definitely seeing a spike in cases but when you compare to what happened especially the last three years and a year ago, the concern isnt nearly there at that point theyre describing a ski jump. The cases have gone up and started to come down over the last four to six months. At the end, theres a little upswing, 12 like you mentioned. To put numbers in perspective, january 22 sorry, july 22nd, that week, 8,000 cases or hospitalizations in that week. A year ago 44,000. So you can see a big difference there. However, we do know now that the variant thats out there, the dominant variant is the xbb variant, 95 of the viruses and unfortunately only 17 of people have that xbb or have the current booster, the bivalent booster shot to protect them as much as possible. How virulent or infectious is this new variant well get to the vaccination question in just a minute. So the virus itself is very contagious its very easy to catch. And its essentially getting to the point where you can catch it just about anywhere you go if the cases are there. As far as how bad it is, it doesnt seem to be nearly as bad as it was even over the last few months or so this xbb one, more contagious, less virulent but certainly out there especially for people out there more vulnerable, those above the ages of 60 or 65, those with preexisting medical conditions especially if theyre immune know suppressed it can still be deadly for them they do delay by a couple weeks. Well keep an eye on that. You said that only 17 of individuals i think is what you said have the xbb protection in the vaccines that they have taken. Is there a new booster that is going to come out that will protect or supposedly protect you against this disease, this strain of the disease i should say, number one. Thats number one. And number two, if i have had covid and i had four shots, as i have, do i have some protection beyond what an unvaccinated person who has never had covid has . Ill go ahead and answer that last part first. Thats one of the reasons were not seeing the virulent there. People vaccinated maybe have not gotten the booster 17 have gotten the booster. Not an xbb yet i misspoke on that one its just the old type of booster thats there but 17 have gotten that booster. The rest of us have either gotten the boosters, gotten the shots, gotten infected or all of the above. So we do have some protection. The concern is whats going to happen in the fall as that protection starts to wane. That xbb variant comes on. Well the fda just went ahead and made recommendations to put the xbb 1. 5, one of the dominant ones in the new booster that will come out in the fall. They think by august, pfizer will be able to submit for its fda approval and cdc will move forward as far as recommendations and who should be getting it. Thats interesting. Maybe someone like me who hasnt had i cant tell you when the last booster was or when i had covid was a year or two ago. Probably a candidate for a reup. So, pfizer is the manufacturer to watch here. What happened to the others . So the others are coming along as well. Theyre just a little bit more delayed. Pfizer is leading the surge right now or leading the race to get that booster out and thats going to be the one again, the cdc the fda will approve and the cdc will say here is who we recommend getting it by the time fall comes around, well see the other ones come about as well and there will be different choices ones you can get. Pfizer thinks they can submit the data, go ahead and get the approval and go ahead and have the cdc recommend it. If i were to go in the fall, as i normally do, either to a local c are vs or to my doctor and say im due for my flu shot, are they going to say do you want to get the covid booster as well they probably are right now we know that you want to get both of those on top of that there is also the rsv vaccine coming out for older adults that you can get as well. We know last year we had that tripledemic. One thing about rsv, it affects older adults, those suffer the most as far as dying from rsv. Might be you get three of them currently theyre not combined separately but definitely covid and flu will be the ones offered mostly as to whether you need it or not, that will depend on a couple of factors. Where are you as far as your own immune status, your age, your own Health Certain people will definitely need it. Other ones will have to think about it and decide on their own if they want to get it. Quick final question on this, dr. Torres we appreciate you walking us through this as we face this choice of potentially getting all three, a flu shot and covid and an rsv, side effects in conjunction or one by one should they be spaced out . Should we expect anything if theyre all taken pretty much together so you can get them together. And thats one of the things the cdc said especially with the covid and flu shot, you can get those together there is a little bit of research out there that shows if you get them together, it doesnt bump your immune system quite as much but the percentage is very, very small. And so getting them together shouldnt be causing an issue. If you have them time to separate them by two weeks each, that is probably the best thing to do. But you can certainly get them together if its convenient and thats all you can do at that time. Dr. John torres, thank you as always for your time today and your insight we appreciate it you bet now to caterpillar up 8 today. Seema mody has more on those results. Its not often you see an industrial stock move this way caterpillar shares surging up over 8 with Second Quarter sales jumping 22 year over year thanks to strength in its mining business helped by the rebound that we are seeing in Commodity Prices Construction Equipment also a bright spot, putting to bed these concerns of demand reaching peak levels ceo telling cnbc this morning that the supply chain situation, too, has improved and that the allocation of funds from the infrastructure bill will last a long time. That is seen as a big catalyst for longerterm growth for u. S. Equipment here in the u. S. As we see demand in china remaining weak shares of caterpillar hitting a fresh alltime high, trading at 287 a share, which is above the average wall street price target of 255 caterpillar results seem to be lifting sentiment for other construction names eden came out with better expected results and united rental shares up nearly 2 thank you very much. Still ahead, oil having a big month in july. Surging more than 15 . Im already seeing some sticker shock at the gas station although the stocks havent really come along. Well talk to an analyst who is getting bullish on chevron and big interview coming up on power lunch tomorrow jp morgan ceo skjamie dimon will join us. After the braerks shares are surging almost 19 on the flip side, technology after its numbers came in short of what the street was looking for. A lot of red thats the bra thzewi a sunburn. Well see you back after this i was having relationship issues with my old bank. It was just take, take, take. So i moved to sofi checking and savings. Get up to 4. 40 apy, and up to 2m in fdic insurance. Sofi get your money right. The first time your sales reached 100k with godaddy was also the first time your profits left you speechless. At the counter or on the go, save 20 with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. Start saving today at godaddy. Com we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. Of what you make. But then he got us tmobile home internet. I was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. I mightve taken it a step too far. chainsaw revs tree crashes chainsaw continues daughter screams lets pretend for a second that you didnt let down your entire family. What would that reality look like . Well i guess i wouldve gotten us xfinity. And wed have a better view. Do you need mulch . What, we have a ton of mulch. Welcome back to power lunch, everybody. Oil jumped more than 15 in july while shares of chevron barely budged well talk to an analyst who is upgrades that stock. First lets bring in Pippa Stevens on oil. We do have the stronger dollar and then also people taking profits after that enormous move in july which was the best month going back to january of 2022. So the key level here to watch Going Forward according to matt at miller is 83. 25 that was the level that acted as resistance back in april so oil can top that, then its a confirmation of a bullish trend. He did say its looking overbought here. Might be a while before it tests that level it wasnt only oil last month. We saw strength in the base metals, copper and aluminum had their best month going back to january. So more interest in the commodity. People look at crude and gasoline prices there are moving up. Were at 3. 75 on the national average. The highest in eight months. We do get a hurricane next month or this month since its august, then knocks refiner offline, that could be a Pivotal Moment were seeing very Strong Demand inventory for gasoline is lower than the fiveyear average thats having an impact and is, of course the summer driving season. Were getting 4 prints on those roads into manhattan around here. That makes us question what alternative fuel sources are there . And this First Nuclear reactor to come online in this country in a long time down in georgia, finally its happening this is incredible. Yeah. Its the First Nuclear reactor to come online in the u. S. In seven years but actually the first built from scratch reactor in 30 years. So this is a very big moment for the industry it started commercial operations yesterday. It provides enough power to power about half a million homes and businesses so a really big moment maria from the Nuclear Energy institute told me its a huge milestone that shows not just here in the u. S. But puts the u. S. Back on the world stage and says were open for business. Where is it exactly and who owns it . It is near waynesboro, georgia. There are multiple parties involved however, one thing to note here, it was years, years behind schedule and massively, massively over budget to the tune of about 13 billion or so over budget. So, its a huge moment for the industry and theyre all saying this shows we can build more reactors here. From a developer standpoint, it is quite pricey. Im not sure it shows we can build more if it shows how hard it is to literally build one is there anything in the pipeline in the near term . Vogel forge will come online end of next year no large scale reaerkts are on the pipeline you have to build these to build these to have the know how we were rusty. We forgot how to make these. Now that this is built, its come to fruition the rest of the world a lot of interest in japan, czech rep republic, they can look to the u. S. They know how to do that use our companies, use our know how. I would wade into the political question which is a hot one, but you just know with the ev revolution that seems to be coming and electricity demand rising that its got to be filled somehow and nuclear would seem to be a piece of that puzzle yeah. Nuclear is the only exactly smr is the big thing those are slated to come online at the end of the decade with some different technologies. But its the only 24 7 base Load Power Source thats green. Critics say its that waste. What do you do with the waste at the end of the life cycle and thats what theyre worried about. Thats why nuclear has traditionally had a lot of critics once its green with a big asterisk, isnt it depends on who you talk to. A lot of people say its purely green, the only green option thats not intermittent like solar and wind you see it included in the ira so we are seeing support at the state and federal level that we havent seen in years. And, of course, russias invasion of ukraine and renewed focus on energy and Energy Security a big part of that. I think new jerseys own grid is 40 nuclear so we benefit from 18 nationwide power is from nuclear. Pippa, thank you. We appreciate it and Oil Giant Chevron is getting upgrade at goldman this week theyre forecasting big gains from chevron saying the company is on a verge of a breakout. Shares of chevron struggled. Theyre down 10 , about a 30point drag relative to the s ps 19 gain lets bring in the analysts behind this upgrade. Head of americas Natural Resources Equity Research with goldman. Its great to see you. Great to see you. Chevrons underperformance, what gives its a function of execution. We have had a couple issues at Major Projects the first is in kazakhstan where we have gone over project. It was a project initially slated to be 37 pl billion in capital. Its been running closer to 45 billion. The last couple quarters they had challenges in the perming as well as productivity missed expectations as we look at the back half of the year into 2024 and then into 2025, some of these head winds start to move in their direction. The kazakhstan project is 98 complete excellent Second Quarter up 11 seque sequentially while we wait for these projects to come online, we get a 10 capital returns yield. Thats 4 dividend and 6 buy back yield which makes it interesting relative to the s p 100. Sure. What would you say we finally are seeing some catchup in crude. I cant quite figure out what thats about yes, some chinese stocks are higher, but other big china exposure like starbucks are lagging. Whats going on behind crudes little uptick here its bigger than little when people start noticing at the gas pump in the weeks to come . Yeah. From an equity perspective, we model 80 brent the back half of the year and then 80 next year as well. And so, to see brent up at 85 a barrel, little firmer than we had anticipated. Thats a function really of demand in july, the demand print hit a record level we see strength in both oecd and in emerging markets. And you see that manifested in refining margins we talked about a few minutes ago in terms of the strength of retail gasoline prices, youre also seeing in diesel prices typically new york harbor refining margins are 15 a barrel today theyre 37 a barrel so were in a very strong refining margin environment. Its causing refiners to run hard its pulling up the crude complex and creating some of the strength in the physical market. Which it should accrue to the valuation of some of the refiners that we like as well, including Marathon Petroleum that reported today. Yeah. You have a couple other names outside of kind of pure plays. First solar, southern are on your conviction list whats the rational there . Yeah. So, to pippas point, we need all of the above we are going to need base load, nuclear in order to meet the longterm demand needs of a growing electricity grid we need renewables in order to transition effectively and we need oil and gas. If you look at americas conviction list compiled by our directors of research, we have southern, which is behind Georgia Power and behind the Nuclear Reactor that just turned on congrats to them first solar, which has an interesting play on the inflation reduction act. And we just added chevron in place of baker hughes as a catchup trade as we think the commodity price will firm up and these big projects come into service. Neil, thanks for your time appreciate it. Great to see you. Still ahead, the next ad front fear walmart turning to a familiar space to grow its advertising business, its own aisles well discuss that ahe oadn the program when power lunch comes right back. Because tmobile helps pano ai innovate, so they can stop the spread of wildfires. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. Somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. She didnt know they were talking to her. I just could not hear. 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Shares were up in pretrade as you can see they are now down about 6 which is the biggest drop in nine months, which really does tell you how investors have felt about this stock this year it has nearly doubled. So this could be some profit taking but it is pretty steep at about 6 so, the company did not just first operating profit, however the sustainability of the profits a little cloudier early on we talked about ubers equity stakes in Different Companies like aurora, line, dd, grab. So its net profitability Going Forward may swing on their fortunes, not necessarily ubers fundamentals investors can be taking a step back and looking at that profitability picture. So as you see, stock the down today but again, its been quite the year for the company up about 100 , a little less than that now, tyler. They struggled to have operating profit they have had lots of swings in there, right yeah. And again, a lot of those swings have been based on its equity stakes in other companies. So, kind of tells you that despite everything that they have done to get to that better profitability, some things are out of their control the Companies Like i mentioned like didi, grab, aurora, these are volatile Tech Companies. We talked about adjusted ebitda profitability. Uber can achieve foush straight quarters, it has a chance of being included in the s p 500. Again that is some ways off. And that path is a little cloudy because of those equity stakes interesting all right, thank you very much, deirdre bosa reporting lets get to Rick Santelli in chicago for more on the action in the bond market rick yes, tyler. We have some important data this morning. Obviously some of the pmis were on the weak side what really caught traders and markets today was jolts. Job opening labor turnover, lowest level since april of 21. And the quits at the lowest level since march of 21 both of those go a long way to potentially alleviate some of the tension within the federal resengs that has led them to keep rates where theyre at or potentially go higher to combat inflation. And if you look at the twoyear note yield, which is very sensitive to inflation and pricing pressures, its nearly unchanged. However, unchanged is not far away from its 507 high yield close in march and that is huge if you talk to any of the big institutional traders trading theyea yield ce ten year, a similar case but further back we have to go back to october. Their high yield close of 4. 25 neither maturity has taken those levels out but the long end really is coming back. Theres some deinverting of the yield curves going on. The fed comes to the end, it certainly seems sellers are starting to move down the curve. As you look at 2s to 10s there, realize right the middle there that spike right around minus 108, that is a 43year most inverted so we have come off that were the least inverted 1. 5 months many traders pay very close attention to whether we get back above 4. 25 in the 10 year finally, look at the nikkei stock market a lot of people have been focussing on japan, well, were getting ever closer to that 1989 high right around 39,000 33. 5 thousand, were still not quite there yet. The stock market has recaptured that area from 1989. Kelly, back to you. Would you say that the deinverting as you used the phrase of the yield curve is commence rate with what we seem to be hearing in the Public Opinion surveys and among some Investment Managers that the likelihood of a recession is lessening . And if we have one, it will be short and shallow. You know, i cant really read that much into the yield curve, tyler. It was so inverted at its extremes not that long ago, certainly historically suggest a recession. The fact its deinverting and mostly led by longer maturity doesnt give me enough clues to make that statement quite yet. Rick, thanks. Rick santelli. Lets get over to Courtney Reagan for the cnbc news update. Updated covid19 booster vaccine could be available by the end of this month. The ceo of pfizer said during todays investor call the drug maker asked the fda in june to authorize the updated shot its designed to target a coronavirus pandemic strain began circulating last winter. Moderna made a similar request in june as well. Its unclear if the cdc will recommend everyone in the u. S. Or specific groups of people. Canadian needs to look for news sources other than facebook and stain gram today the Company Started the process of ending access to news on the platforms the decision comes after legislation passed that would force social media platforms to pay canadian news publishers for their content. And police are searching for a trio of brazen Armed Robbers that hit a luxury watch store in the heart of paris and made out with between 11 million and 16 million worth of jewelry they targeted the Flagship Store on one of the citys main stropping streets the middle of the day. Kelly, back over to you. Unsettling. Thank you. Still to come on power lunch, pinterest ad potential the shares are lower ahead of earnings after the bell today. Wall street eager for updates on the ad business as they make a bigger push into shopping. Can they catch up to digital giants like google and meta . What about a new player like walmart . Well diusafr e eascs tethbrk. fan 1 there ya go thats what im talkin about josh allen is this your plan to watch the game today . hero fan uh, yea. I have to watch my neighbors nfl sunday ticket. josh allen its not your best plan. But you know what is . Myplan from verizon. Switch now and theyll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. hero fan this plan is amazing josh allen another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. fan 1 that was josh allen. fan 2 mmhm. vo for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. A 449 value. Plus, get a free Samsung Galaxy s23. Only on verizon. Welcome back to power lunch. Lets look at the Advertising Market both online and in stores Julia Boorstin looking at digital ads. Alyssa here with details of a new plan walmart is rolling out. Lets start with you, melissa. Walmart has between online and its stores a huge, captive audience to advertise to they are ramping up their advertising business and that will change the way shoppers notice things in stores. Think of places like Self Checkout screens or the overhead radio that plays in walmart will have 30second spots that advertisers can buy and things that are also pretty popular with customers typically, sampling stations will be more prominent. Walmart is trying to incorporate more qr codes that allows people to pick up more information about that product, like bag of chips or beverage. Are they going to have video screens also in their stores yes. In other words, they are having their customer their clients, their merchandise sellers, theyre charging them to advertise in their stores, right . Exactly its not exactly new if you think about it, every end of the aisle has always been an advertising opportunity. Now theyre really trying to bring that into the more digital age with a lot of tv screens and its just a little bit more hightech now. So, it will even be like a little bit of information about a pet product thats right next to pet food. I got a behind the scenes look in bentonville and theyre planning to roll this out to more stores nationwide. The sampling thing is very exciting like at costco. The broader idea is to get ads to people where they buy i asked about this earlier, where do you advertise all social media but even there, its a challenge for online advertisers lately. Pinterest, you know, theyre kind of working over time. They have been working to make it easier to buy things. You know, investors still hoping they can push people a little closer to that finish line. Thats a big opportunity for pinterest. People oftentimes go to pinterest because theyre looking for products on the verge of shopping. And so, what we have seen so far with pinterest is that this is a company that can really benefit from ceo bill readys focus on making it easier to shop on this platform now, this quarter in particular investors will be looking for an update on a Big Partnership the Company Announced with am vonn to Bring Third Party ads on pinterest they announced back in april. We think that amazon collaboration is critical to demonstrating the bold case that pinterest can high its high intent traffic into action and become a valuable shopping utility. So the question is how this ability to drive shopping helps attract ad dollars and how pinterest fares compared to meta far exceeded expectations with accelerating Revenue Growth in the quarter while alphabets youtube a ads also beat expectations on the other hand, snap fell short of projections, it also forecasts negative to flat Third Quarter Revenue Growth now for pinterest, there are other key areas to watch including comments on the Overall Health of the ad market, success of some of the new advertising tools as well as the success of its content partnership. Now, pinterest is expected to grow its earnings by 5. 9 and revenue by 4. 5 . How much of that growth is going to be driven by advertisers . Basically all of it pinterest is an addriven platform, they are working on some of the other businesses when it comes to the value of driving shopping, thats all about making their ads more valuable if you can get people to click to buy, then if you have an ad that says, here, check out this new couch, you can click and buy it right now thats going to make that ad for whatever the product is more valuable. How much, melissa, if walmart pushes further into this realm, i dont typically think of them as an advertising driven company like a pinterest, as theyre starting to ramp that up as amazon clearly pushed into this space and how much do Traditional Stores look to vie from advertising dollars from the likes of a pinterest retailers are really in the early phases of this journey partially because what they see with pinterest and Companies Like meta because they know its a higher margin business thats where they want to be its a lot more lucrative to sell an ad than to sell milk and eggs so walmart is making a concerted push here. So is kroger and target. This is part of an effort to kind of take some of the play book of those Tech Companies and get into it. A lot of their sales do happen in stores. So thats why theyre branching into that, but theyre also selling a lot more digital ads its really cutting across those spectrums. Worth noting that walmart has a huge audience as tyler mentioned at the beginning they draw about 139 million customers to walmart every week. If you think about that, thats larger than the most recent super bowl in terms of viewership. Every week. Its really important to know that amazon has really been leading the charge here. We have google and meta, the two leaders. But amazon is growing really quickly in this area and is really becoming a major third source in the digital ad market and really demonstrating to other retailers, hey, maybe you should get. Its not great as a User Experience at the end of the page, item number 13 is maybe the item im looking for. Theyre listening to what im saying alexis is listening. Let me ask you how relevant. Often used to be that when you were heading into an election year, heading into an olympic year, that the advertising business benefitted. Is that still does that still, julia, hold as true atz used to . Well, for the business of tv advertising, it is definitely true for the olympics and anything involving the olympics which is, of course, on our sister network, there is a drive of viewership towards that big event. The fact that that viewing is live is incredibly valuable. You can reach people in realtime when it comes to platforms like pinterest, what they benefit from is Consumer Trends. People are going on to pinterest saying during the pandemic to outfit their kitchens, buy new furniture. That will benefit Consumer Trends consumers are spending money on travel, pinterest is trying to say plan your trips on pinterest. The fact that people are spending less on retail and more on experiences like concert tickets and travel that might not benefit pinterest as much. The fact that pinterest is about retail, purchasing things that might give us insight into where consumers are spending. Suggests the pandemic was the pinterests super bowl as long as they dont alienate people with this experience and you saw it so maybe you can describe how invasive it is, thats a natural place to put those eyeballs. It will be a delicate balance. This is something other retailers are struggling with as well walgreens is facing a lawsuit from a company that turned its cooler aisles into digital screens. New walgreens ceo came in, did not like the appearance of it and ended that contract. Theres a dispute over why that contract was ended, but again, kind of illustrates the tension about that Consumer Experience and selling ads, which again is very lucrative. All right thank you, guys. Appreciate it. Good to have you with us see what pinterest does after the bell. Meantime, if you want to take your business to the next level, theres still time to register for cnbcs virtual even tomorrow learn from Industry Experts about how to beat inflation, higher top talent and access capital. Scan the qr code or visit cnbcevents. Com smallbusiness and power lunch will be right back welcome back lets get over to seema mody for a market flash on norwegian cruise line. Cruise lines have been among the best performers this year, but norwegian cruise lines Second Quarter report putting a damper on the rally. Earnings easily Beat Estimates however a conservative Third Quarter guide sending shares down by 13 in todays trade the cruise operator also revealing that occupancy will be 200 bases points lower than 2019 levels as the focus is on premium, longerterm cruise itineraries. Royal and carnival are looking at bringer shorter threeday trips to customers norwegian cfo bullish on the travel economy and the consumer saying we are not seeing any science of any consumer deterioration. I would also point out that pricing and 2024 bookings pacing but shares down 13 . The busiest week of earnings season so far rolls on with a pair of tech titans on deck. We reached out for some Technical Support to see how to trade some key names and turn them into results for you. Welchl eck the charts when power lunch returns. I was having relationship issues with my old bank. Next to no interest, the fees. It was just take, take, take. So i broke up with bad banking and moved to sofi checking and savings. Now i get higher interest, pay no account fees, and get my paycheck two days early. Get up to 4. 40 apy, pay no account fees, and up to 2m in fdic insurance. Download the sofi app and earn up to 250 when you set up direct deposit. Sofi get your money right. New projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. When you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. Visit indeed. Com hire and get started today. Welcome back to power lunch everybody the stock has been on a tear this year, up more than 80 on the year so far. Though, currently more than 10 off the june high. We will bring you those numbers at 4 00 p. M. Eastern time and well hear more from ceo lisa sue at 9 00 a. M. Tomorrow, that is on squawk on the street. Kelly . Lets look to the other big names reporting this week. We have two of the Worlds Largest companies, apple, amazon well throw in dupont as well. Here to chart them, partner and chief Market Strategist at bell curve trading. Welcome to you, bill so, weve got a very busy week lets start with apple, which everyone is curious about, maybe show the chart here. The price action what are your thoughts about it . Great place to start, kelly greatest shareholder wealth over the last three decades talk about 75 trillion globally, 60,000 plus global stock universe and the stark reality is most of that money comes from a handful of names 2 to 3 of the total. Right. This is the key driver right here so youll always have to know whats going on with apple it will be part of everybodys portfolio. When i look at this big picture, first question, where do you start . The long term and most major indexes, etf, stocks goes back to early 2020 in the height of the pandemic woes. So right around here okay thats where most of these big picture trends start, around 60 bucks. Then i look at 60, wow imagine that almost at 200 now. Yeah, yeah. Not going to see that for a long time now then we look at where is fair value fair value is simply where is the bulk of dollars been invested in that name over this critical time period it comes in right here around 145, 150. Wow. And then when you look at that, the big picture trends, they tend to be symmetric around fair value 60 to 150 is 90 150 and 90 is 240. Apple is going to 235 240. But still major upside here. When you say theres major upside and could go 90 bucks above this fair value range of trading. Call that fair value, is that where the stock should be . No. I mean, at some point in the future, it may retrace there but you can see, youve got your low. Youve got where the bulk of trading activity is taking place. Now youve broken out well above there. Right. So then the question is, where do we go and all the black boxes, all the algorithms, the math and statistics is really simple. Basically that market trades and series normal distributions and bell shape curves hence the name of our company, 60, 150, 150, 90 is 240 and kelly, when i started in the business, all the stars were the Portfolio Managers peter, soros now the stars are in the black boxes. Im showing you what the simple math and statistics are. All right. Apple is going to 235 240 i want to buy or pull back 180, 185 level. Risk or close above the mid range, 173 then i want to take that rid to take that ride all the way to 235, 240. Lets see what that means for amazon maybe we can go this quickly, because apple is kind of the biggie but amazon is still massive, still important, and talk to me about what you see. This is a great followup, because totally different structure. Again, very popular hightech name, but totally different strategy, different structure. We still start march 20, this is where the key lows and most of the equity markets around the world are. You make highs to the 180 area but come all the way back, Double Bottom around the same area. What price level is this, around 80 yeah, and were right back in the middle of things it sounds like you dont do anything the problem is with amazon youve got a big overhang of volume the average person is long amazon from this critical march 2020 lows is long from about 145, 150 so i want to buy up apple on a pullback because i think theres big ups, and amazon, if weve got any kind of strength, we get any kind of pop, middle 140s, i want to let it go. Because you think other people will, too i know youre going to have significant selling in the mid 140s and higher so you buy apple on a pullback, with amazon you get any kind of strength out of the august 3rd earnings into the mid 140s, let it go. Very different playbooks for the two tech giants. What about dupont, which kind of comes out of nowhere, but tells us something about a different part of the market i wanted to change it up and show you Something Different this is what we call a balanced market here we start a little further back we go to the highs and come right down to the critical march 2020 lows, and then we kind of go sideways, whereas with apple i want to buy for big upside, amazon i want to sell strength because i think youre going to get another move down. With dupont i want to wait and watch and see the market break if you go back the last five years, the average person is right around here, like 70 to 75. So what i want to do with dupont is wait, see a reflexive move. I want to see where its up 10 bucks or down 10 bucks and then play that as a breakout from fair value, around the 75 area. So three very different strategies apple, buy weakness, much bigger highs. Amazon, sell strength. Dupont, let it play out and break from the 70, 75 area it could be up or down, then you play that move. Let me throw you an audible what about the Broader Market . Very good question. When i look at the s p right now its a range of 4500 to 4700 the nasdaq 100 its 15,000 to 16500. But i think the much bigger takeaway is when you look at the big picture, we all see significant new upside we think over the next several years the s p 500 is going to 5400 to 5700 we think the nasdaq 100 is going from 18500 up to 20000 and the dow is going to 50000. Were very bullish on the market big picture. Short term, 15000 to 16500 and the nasdaq 100, you look at a couple years down the line, alltime new highs, absolutely. If youre right, amazon has got to figure this out and participate. Thats some serious upside appreciate it. Thanks so much for your time folks, weve only got a couple of minutes left, but we have a lot more content to ram righatt you its closing time when power lunch returns and were ready to go. You got this. Lets go. Gobble gobble. Ive seen bigger legs on a turkey rude. Who are you . Im an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this Smart Fitness mirror. Im also mr. Leg day. 1989 anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq100 innovations. I go through a lot of pants. Before investing carefully read and consider Fund Investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco. Com. You founded your Kayak Company because you love the ocean not spreadsheets. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire weve got about three minutes, three and a half in the program. Much more stories that you need to know about, so lets get right to it, starting with amazon it is rolling out its Virtual Health clinic nationwide the service doesnt actually provide telemedicine that amazon provides instead, it provides the platform to connect patients like you, me, with other existing telemed providers Online Amazon clinic first launched last november in select regions. Shares of the rival, teledoc, are down about 5 on the news. Where amazon goes, it is a disrupter. We have an offering like this, teledoc is down 7 through various companies, i think its called circle. I would use whatever the insurance points you to. Whatever your companys insurance does thats what we do a lot. And i think this is video in every state, i think text message kind of appointments in, lets see, 34 states. Wow, and that would certainly be helpful now, an undertheradar barometer shows tesla losing some of its cool factor with genz. Morgan stanleys latest survey found theyre no longer the most desirable car brand. Can you guess who is more desirable right now . I wouldnt have guessed it necessarily. Mercedes. I would have thought bmw. Im truly surprised. I thought rivian or lucid, but evs are decline in popularity. The survey indicates that tesla will still be the number one ev sold in this country, and if they come down in price theyll sell more of them and become the toyota. Not to the extent theyre not already. Car gurus says the average price for a used tesla vehicle is at an alltime low of just under 43,000. We took a Family Vacation and went to norway, and we rode with a mercedes ev that was maybe the most beautiful car ive ever ridden in. Really . It was gorgeous the display was great. I have no idea what it costs im sure it costs a tremendous amount of money. That was the original market. You saw a lot of teslas there. A ton. An update on a story we told you about yesterday. Elon musks new sign, a flashing x on the companys San Francisco headquarters, not anymore. Its been taken down the city said it received 24 complaints about the x sign, including one that said the flashing light made it hard to sleep. There it is, x, not anymore. They came in, took it down there apparently were some permitting issues on top of the question of consumers or neighbors complaining that the throbbing x there listen, my head is throbbing from using x i was so excited when he took over twitter because hes a product guy. Not at this point. I refuse to call it x. Weve got to get in the dimon promo. Exclusive interview tomorrow right here on this program, jpmorgans ceo jamie dimon. We will discuss the state of the economy, americas banks and much more. I think it comes from bowsman, montana. Nice place to do an interview. Gorgeous. Thank you for watching power lunch. Closing bell starts right now. Welcome to closing bell. Im mike santoli here at the new york stock exchange. This makeorbreak hour, stocks are taking a well earned breather as treasury yields rise toward their highest for the year and investors see confirmation of the economic soft landing story still intact. We ask, what scenario has the near 20 gain in the broad market so far this year priced in, and is that is plausible scenario here to discuss that is adam