Well be on and bridge you all of the bring you all of the big headlines. First the november to remember dow surging towards best month since january 1987 s p and nasdaq handing in best work since april energy up more than 25 percent financials up more than 17 percent. Small caps, best month ever. Bulls werent hiding, check this out, each of the past four monday he got big vaccine news before the market open and look at diminishing returns, the market fell despite moderna requesting emergency use of its vaccine. So weve been talking talking black or white or red and green in terms of diminishing returns. I took that economic class my freshman year and learned all about diminishing returns which is why i often invoke it here, i think so, absolutely tell you something, the vix is telling another story. I thought a day like today, monthend i thought the vix would close closer to 25 but here it is closing lower on the day, maybe its a function of that specific security, but ill tell you given what transpired the vix should be 25 that said, you know, i do think so much of this vaccine news baked in and should expect a bit of a pull back on the s p 500, melissa. Thats mean, tim, to the trade that led us here two new records, talking banks and energy, trade thats are dependent on an economy that reopens or at least finds some juice here. Theyre catching their breath, mel. I think you have a case here where on banks if you look at the xlf maybe not a pure read. Dan has talked about this too because theres a lot burk shire in there but look, xlf below precovid levels and banks will start unwinding the major reserves on the Balance Sheets the move you gave the numbers at the top of the show, not surprising to see a bit of a breath here. Quietly Inflation Expectations are going higher look at tips, i wont get deep on it but those are built in and theyve outperformed and theres sense of inflation out there, look at the price of copper and the dollar going lower, should tell you well be in importing some inflation and that should tell you all of the trades should work i think we have a case where retail drastically under performed for three years to a catchup play for the last year. Off the bottom has outperformed the s p by 50 percent after 20 percent down move after the lull of the crisis from the beginning of the crisis. I think those trade that you mentioned, bank small cap retail, these are trades that i think have more mean reversion to go. Can the mean reversion though happen continue to happen, karen, in a world in which there is no stimulus, in a world in which the Economic Outlook is so uncertainty even though we have this great vaccine news. We saw it in the market today and mention every monday, if you look at more recent mondays the Market Reaction is less and less which would imply its already baked in i think for the shortterm the vaccine news is baked in by got to tell you, this, blip, is really what i think of what happened today, it just shaves the tiniest bit off the november performance i always look for things to buy. So a day like today provided actually zero opportunities of things for me to buy because they just, i mean, just a tiny bit of froth came off. So i think also theres the expect or the hope that the Biden Administration will be able to get some sort of stimulus through so i think the stimulus as one of the sort of platforms of a continual rally is still there i dont know how big, we dont know whats going to happen in the senate so that is up in the air but i dont think a stimulus is dead we talked about santa claus rally couple weeks ago, a lot of santas here already just trying to beat the rush, i guess. So now i think sort of sideways for a while. Yeah, what could go wrong, dan, implying the quite you sent out, all of the positive in the market how many components above the 200 day moving average, et cetera, what could go wrong at this point thats it, it feels like santa con in the majority, if youre a new yorker and an early saturday in december you know santa con is a freaking mess that being said, i just think theres a lot bake in right here i think that we keep talking about this vaccine, yeah, this is the fourth or fifth monday in a row we came in with good news. Listen, the vaccine might prove to be the biggest challenge for the reopening of the economy in 2021, when you think about warp speed amazing, amazing endeavor here we have, at least a couple vaccine thats should work against this virus but distributing it, not just here in the u. S. But the world over and then kind of overcoming some of the trust issues about it but most importantly the logistics issues about it, inokay lating hundreds and millions of people in a short period of time. Im not so confident thats going to happen the way we expect in the first three to five months next year. We might see continued push outs of the reopening trade when the economy gets back to prepandemic levels. Last point, mel, the point you made about stimulus, does it look much smaller than the deal that was on the table in september and october that we couldnt get an agreement on we were at one point 8 trillion at 2. 2 trillion and now talking about something much less than trillion that may not be enough to keep the market here where it is i think its anticipating a lot of good news until the next six to twelve months not just inokay u lating people in general they have to go for two dos and might have some side effect so uncertainty around the vaccine and the stimulus, how about uncertainty around the economy, we heard from fed chair powell, lets go to steve with the latest melissa, thanks, dispute between the fed and treasury showing up in testimony to be delivered tomorrow by treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin and jay powell they say the fed will return the unused money to the treasury but notes demand for main stream loans being closed by the treasury secretary may increase with the spread of the pandemic, unlocked 2 trillion of funding to state and local governments and nonprofit, how the economy continue to recover from the depressed Second Quarter levels but the pace of improvement have moderated and economic outcome is uncertainly and for the most part americans are getting back to work and our job is not complete, his job of course, until every american is back to work, and he notes half of the workers have come back who lost their jobs in the pandemic he sharply criticizes shutdowns say they continue to impair remarkable progress and quote cause grit harm to american businesses and workers and urging congress to use the 450 billion unused funds in the care act and say the the administration will support a targeted fiscal package that passes well listen tomorrow from senators to see if there is any hint of progress on stimulus and if theres support to end the emergency programs. Today some High Frequency data suggest theres could be negative print on the jobs number on friday, some of the highfrequen highfrequency data supporting that, that could be a game changer on the progress on stimulus. That will be a wake up call if we do have a negative print. Yeah, i think if you sort of listen to the tenor of the debate, when the jobs numbers have come in more strongly than expected, which they have, its kind of caused the urgency of the need for stimulus to recede. Along, by the way, with the market, the way the market has been reacting, it doesnt seem to negatively assess the lack of stimulus. I would submit the its the Market Reaction to negative print on friday could be the wake up call for zbrcongress. Then you would get a double potentially. Steve liesman, thank you. Tim seymour this disagreement will seem quaint is yellen is confirmed. Are the marketing seeking skinny or targeted stimulus between now and when congress leaves in just a couple weeks time . Tough look, this is the detail on the big picture and themes here. We know that janet yell enhance largely been a markets positive dynamic, we know from her role at the fed and listening to powell today talking about all of the tools in the tool box, all of that, this was the yellen fed, the bernanke fed and treasury that wants to stay close to that action i think theres dynamics here for the market ultimately normalization in terms of the economy is bad news for the market i dont think that were close to the normalized economy but when we Start Talking about normalized earnings and start pulling forward in couple of these sectors where maybe we come out of this faster, thats the time to sell those sectors, i dont think were there yet. The dynamic of how much fiscal is coming down the pike is what the markets will weigh. If you look back to 2016 we didnt have covid but we had a president ial election and a seasonal rally. Most of the trump rally for at least the boost that came out of election and then into the Holiday Season was done by the end of november and you essentially were flat for 34u67 of much of december. If you look at the bull bear measure wheres we have extreme optimism were stretched, how could we not be stretched so i think the feds not going anywhere any time soon bad news good news but more important direction for the market right now is lopping off a little bit of this froth and then were going higher. Guy, do you think its a replay of what happened in the last election as tim is say sng. The set up to me is completely different but i understand the dynamics behind it i want to add another wild card without going down political bend when candidate trump would then be President Trump to talk about how the market would be a report card for his administration. By any stretch using that metrics its been a wonderful administration by you know, if he concedes, i havent figure out if theres a concession out there, one thing, its one thing to lose an election to ego, another thing to watch the market go higher on the back of that not unlike a ceo getting fired and watch his or her stock go up 8 percent in the aftermath its a tough pill to swallow im wondering if that press conference he did when he trumped at the 30,000 level one wed never seen again, in his head is that would be great way to go out with the market at an alltime high. I wonder what voice well hear to derail this thing going back to wilbr rosss congress in moth balls coming out saying the deficit is out of nowhere. If you go down that rant rabbit hole congress is in session almost until the day Electoral College votes and fresno sta President Trump said he will abide by what they vote and maybe he will push for the stimulus bill to go out on a high note. He hasnt been contemplating his legacy, in his mind hes not out of the game and the point about december 14th is important. I will tell you this, hes going to bet first u. S. President who is during his term in 30 or 40 years or longer that actually had a net job loss. If you are thinking about your legacy you may want to try to push through some form of fiscal stimulus that would help the people its not like his tax cuts in 2017 that went to the donor class and large cooperations this would be going to unemployed sit citizens and small businesses, that sort of thing. That might be something to take the tarnish off this period since the election so to me, im hoping for it, i wouldnt hold my breath though. Our next guest warns december chill may hit the markets, chief equi equity, always nice talking to you. How chilly frost bite unseasonably cold . Unseasonably cold sound s about right. Basically from our point of view, what november says about the nearterm is very incontrovertible cluesive. Incontrovertible cluesiv in we are seeing that there are very strong inflows into equities and fund flow can fund a lot of flows fleer near or long term for us the near term is in tact particularly you dont want to be in bonds because the feds not going to allow negative rates the rational or equity is there. We have a lot to overcome. 2021 earnings we are reasonably fully priced and not ready for negative surprises. What valuations would you buy in the markets for investor thats cant play it too cute. Unless were talking about a decent size pull back youre not going to get out and back in. Right and were not saying you should do that if you feel uncomfortable this is a time that perhaps looking out three months you might want to own some down side foot protection the volumeality volatility index is very attractive for hedging. In general we say otherwise sit tight. In the last two and half years its been massive roller coast aern coaster and the best strategy is to sit tight same in 2021, you have to get emotionally through what could potentially be the down part of the roller coaster thanks for being on as a counter weight to money coming into the majority, do you think theres into the market, do you think theres thought of strategy of selling big gains in this calendar year to get in front any tax changes that the Biden Administration could implement. Actually weve started to see it a little bit, what people have called the growth to value rotation you know, we dont necessarily think that even if the democrats were to take both of those georgia seats that you would really have enough of an impetus to get past that kind of major tax legislation. So whereas that might have been a consideration sort of in october coming into the election when you started to see the winners begin to under perform the lagers, obviously we dont think thats rationale to trend specifically those names, same time, theyre not necessarily attractive enough at these valuations where we want to be aggressive about adding. Julian, i have to ask you about bitcoin, you said recently, bitcoin to 50 k is reasonable right target for year end 2021 i wonder if thats the case, and you mentioned, you know, sort of the diminishing value of the dollar, et cetera, thats kind of force, does it have a place in investors portfolio instead of cash . Well, its its its not necessarily instead of cash, it is instead of the 40 percent that would be a traditional 60 40 bond allocation. Again, going back to what we discussed earlier, if the fed is not going to permit negative rates, and were seeing signs of inflation, its reasonable to expect that you could have, you know, perhaps losses in bond portfolios in the foreseeable future and then when you combine that with the fact that youve got this entire cohort of young investors, the same ones that were really aggressively pushing technology stocks, you know, this summer who have 40year investing horizons and alternative to bonds is very, very sensible and from our point of view while fed continues to add to its Balance Sheet and u. S. Debt continues to go higher bitcoin is a viable alternative. To extrapol late that should Companies Hold bitcoin on their Balance Sheets . Its certainly an alternative and weve seen several of them come to that conclusion. One of the facts of life is that you really havent been rewarded and perhaps rightly so in a zerointerest rate environment for cash i dont know that i want to go quite that far again, thats an individual, you know, corporate managements perspective but in a diverse tied investment portfolio we do think theres a place for it. Julian great to speak with you, thank you very much. Thank you. Julian emmanuel btig we have a story on cnbc. Com pro sign up sand check it out. Guy, i asked julian about Companies Holding bitcoin on their Balance Sheet because when you were off on hump day ahead of gobble gobble day last week we spoke to the ceo of micro strategy who took 75 percent of the cash on the Balance Sheet and put it in bitcoin. Guess what rose today with bitcoin to record it highs micro strategy so its a bitcoin proxy. From investment standpoint the question is is this what you want a company to do no. I dont believe so that to me is a bridge too far as they say. Its great the micro strategy shareholders are thrilled today but if bitcoin is 12,512,500twok from now are they going to be happy with the volatility. I dont know maybe im wrong. Im sure bk has a different view but i would be a little concern ed they were putting theeggs i the bitcoin basket this early, the infancy in the nascent state of bitcoin and cryptocurrency specifically so that would concern me im glad i miss hump day gobble gobble day, you know how i feel about it. You love it, you heart it coming up, zoom shares plummet in latest company call well break it down. And nikola share falling hard after gm pulls the plug on vestment plans its down to the wire, the teams been working around the clock. Weve had to rethink our whole approach. Were going to give togetherness. Logistically, its been a nightmare. Im not sure its going to work. Itll work. I didnt know you were listening. Welcome back to fast money. Your kids do it. Your bosses do it. Your parents are even doing it talking about zoom we have an earnings alert on that stock debo with the numbers. Youre right, everyones doing it but as one of our colleagues put it, its investors are a tough crowd. Zoom does almost everything right and then some. Better than expected guidance. Third straight quarter of triple digit Revenue Growth doubled its most lucrative customers but investors come to expect big things and the quarter may not have been enough weighing on zoom shares in the last few months what happens when the economy reopen and people are not on zoom all day also Third Quarter 367 percent blow out, going to expect next years growth very difficult to compare. Shares are down in the after hour but still up nearly 600 percent yeartodate this is very much the workfromhome darling key question Going Forward is whether it could ultimate wly be more than videoconferencing platform and evolve into core Human Interaction platform to justify its now skyhigh valuation. Their call kicks off in about five minutes from now. All right, thank you. By the way well hear from zoom ceo tomorrow on squasquawk bo the average price on the street is 480 close to where the stock closed the session today dan . Yeah, i think theres very few things that you can kind of look at and that say its disappointing. The stock only down five percent tells you that investors want to be positive even up 600 percent on the year. I think debo made the point that, period over period were going to see diesel ratio and year comps impossible yearoveryear 135 billion market cap you say how does this company grow into that valuation especially as we start to see the other side of the pandemic and make no mistake about it, no matter what happens, in september or august our schools are opening nationally so the opportunity, the total Addressable Market probably hasnt shrunk too much but their ability to monetize it Going Forward on the other side of the pandemic is probably what investors spend the next few months pricing the stock at. Even when reopening nibbles away as the margins, theres competitive aspect like my teams and other platforms. True or false, the stocks best days are behind it false i guess its a 50 50 guess from the 588 alltime high we saw youre down 24 percent at these levels if you go back to september 1st this level right here was at the time the alltime high so the symmetry lines up and you have to ask yourself down 25 percent even if this company is 75 percent, 80 percent in a post pandemic world maybe the stock is right here. So not going to get bought at the current market capitalizati capitalization, as a trading vehicle, 455 sets up pretty fine. Tim i think they could make acquisition with that currency which is their stock, maybe its overpriced currency but i think the stocks performance in after hours extraordinary. We know what the stock has done this year, also rallied 30 percent into this number so yearoveryear comp with greater than 10 percent Customer Growth is great. Its the evolution of the product portfolio, zoom phone is something people are talking about and enterprise software. I think they can stay in the game true false which is would you rather or maybe its actually more of an over under, more of a betting call, mel. I take the over. But im not sure ill take the over in the next six months. There needs to be a chance for the company to recalibrate and see life when we go back to work. Truth of the matter, all of the games are the same, trade it or bait it, are you buying or selling, thats the bottom line. Shhh dont tell anybody i said that we got a market flash on tesla, eric has the details. Thats right, tesla stock moving up in the afterhours because were getting more clarity and details how it will get out of the s p 500 three week from today, december 21st that monday morning, on that day, the entire full float adjusted market cap weight the full amount of tesla that will go into the s p 500 all of it will go in on that monday morning three weeks from today so that got the stock up right now popping. They tried to figure how to do this, if it will be gradual or sudden they announced it will be sudden next friday after the close is when well find out what Company Tesla is knocking out of the ind index. Thank you current market value adjusted for float 470 billion would produce 72. 2 billion in required trades on that single trading session. Karen, does it i dont know, does it matter if its added in one go or in couple traunches. Why i dont think it really does, especially if it comes in a short time so that doesnt really make sense to me. I think also how much of this has been frontrun already, right, clearly the stock is up suns that announcement since that announcement. The last things that interesting to me is why doesnt tesla take this tremendous opportunity to do a very big secondary. They dont need the money right this money but put away 10 billion in the bank or more. That wouldnt be crazy at all. That would help to feed that demand so, yeah, a agree with you though, why its over three days or one day, i dont know i dont think that really changes the value of tesla. If they did a secondary at these high valuations to feed this demand, would you be a buyer into that secondary as weve seen in the past history has suggested that, other than once or twice, i would say, you know, the other six or seven times, thats probably about right, its been a tremendous entry level to buy or get on the stock on the secondary. So, yeah, again, you know, im not on the musk train, maybe i dont understand it butly tell you since may, june, ive sort of figured how this stock trades an the answer to that question would be yes. A lot more ahead on fast money. Heres whats coming up next. Its cyber monday and shaping up to be a surprisingly strong season for the consumer. What retailer stock should you be putting in your shopping cart we go off the charts for some answers. Plus, the best looking name in the retail space may not be the stock you think its. I well tell you what it is when fast money returns welcome back to fast money. The holiday rush is officially on, 25 days left until christmas, and retailers hope for more big gains, s p retail is up more than 20 percent this month sitting near alltime highs. Now a look at two retailers off the charts this year now to ranked number two investors analyst congrats what are the two charts. Thank you twonames you want to own here, if you put it in context of broad discretionary sector whats remarkable on the first chart is how broad this move in discretionary has been 100 of sector is above the moving average good as anything in 30 years worth of data. It speaks to how broad this is and tells of any weakness in the coming weeks or months where you want to step in and be a buyer. If you look at discretionary verse staples, risk on versus risk off the distribution airy beating staples is reflective of the risk on certainly in contrast to what the last several years looked like. If you look at xrt, the retail etf, this is three years of nothing that just decisively broke out no money was made here since earl 2018. Thats over now, 50 to 60 very quickly. Be a bouyer of buyer of pull back here. If you look at the names that comprise this, macys continues to stand out in the months over recent weeks 7 to 11 on big volume. The stock is being accumulated whose 9. 50, 10 support we think it finds buyers there and relative to the s p this is turning up here as well, becoming an outperformer. If you look at ticker five, this is a different type of chart that just broke out to newalltime highs we like using weakness to your advantage, this is a good longterm chart. Tim, your macys is looking good according to chris. Well, i mean, you know, moving the stock is one thing and i think chris probably has sized up the 35 percent Short Interest which is now starting to come in, maybe aggressively, most importantly they added 7 million new digital customers in the last Earnings Period think of 40 percent penetration of sales in digital. Its another story where covid accelerated trends, in this case a bad trend, at least restructuring. In other words, the stuff the company had to do but was doing but doing slowly i just think the numbers here, its been a Balance Sheet story. Look at cvs for macys coming in dramatic meaning the Credit Investors are more bullish the fact the Free Cash Flow last couple quarters has been there the question is, can they maintain that. Chris thanks for the charts, always nice to speak with you. Dan, you actually think theres another company that could win forget about the retailers what is the best chart in the markets right now . I think the best looking chart is apple the stock has really under performed s p 500 last few months last monday the stock went sideway because if you look at this chart and series of high and lows in the last few months and series of low or highs you see the tension building, see a rising 100day moving average here, this looks like it is poised to win christmas, not because of a 5 j upgrade super cycle thingama jiggy, thats not a great aspect but what is good gift to give is those air pods or the speaker, i already bought few of them so i think apple sets up nicely technically here i like the under performance the market makes a new high, im not certain it will, but id rather play it through apple and make a run at the high for apple. Dan i think hes spot on. Weve been pretty consistent i thought the stock would look at 98 and held at 105. We said after earnings you would get a shot, here it was. I think the entry point is fine. I think hes spot on theres been some comments made bullish comments and some luke capital to give support to the stock today, good for them and dan, in the face as eddie murphy said in coming to america. I really wish we could have got a professional, Technical Analyst opinion, maybe the number two analyst on wall street, dan. Chris is back with us, its a christmas miracle, everybody, the guest is back. So what do you make of dans chart . I think dan knows his charts and this is a stock we think goes higher. It consolidated for three months and was massively over bought in august and september and work that off through time. No damage was done volume was really light. We think it resumes higher and runs back to the old highs of 138, 140 into year end. Chris thank you, again. What did the late, great regis sregis say, dan knows a lot coming up, General Motors bangs away, big news later, blockbuster deal brewing, what we can expect sasfceleor to say in the Earnings Report tomorrow night stay tucned. Youre watching fast you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventyfivedollar credit when you post your first job at indeed. Com promo should auld acquaintance be forgot and never brought to mind should auld acquaintance be forgot and Auld Lang Syne well take a cup of kindness yet for Auld Lang Syne next customer please. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of nikola stock dropping more than 26 percent after General Motors pulled the plug under the terms of new daeal gm will supply nikola with new technology and nikola handing in its worse day since june we should note november 30th today is also lock up expiration day, estimated that as many as 161 million shares could be eligible to be unlocked. So tim, is this a surprise from the gm standpoint . You know, it shows a little rationality. Its definitely a case where, ive always viewed this as who needs who . Nikola really needs good m and access to some of gms technology and some of their oem Manufacturing Capabilities and their distribution the interesting thing about the gm stock is at one point found itself below where that announcement was, almost as if nikola was hadding the opposite but i think its the opposite, a lot of the nikola shares are founder shares and tomorrow is expected to be a very big day, obviously the stock seeing that today in advance of that news make no mistake this whole moment in time has illuminated gm plan in where they are involve in hydrogen dpfuel cells and where the stock is invested in this space. Im not surprised. I think its not a bad day for gm but is a day for showing rationality. From nikola standpoint you could argue theyre going back to their roots starting as a hydrogen commercial truck company, not in the consumer space at all, an bd and to think about the ramp, ininvestment to get into the consumer space, beyond manufacturing but also in terms of distribute distribution thats a steep ramp so from a nikola turnaround story, karen, do you think its any more attractive . No i thought thing in pretty well considering all of the negative things today. I dont know what that negotiation between nikola and gm was, nikola had every cardinal and still couldnt come to a zedeal this will be a blip for gm. Coming up, were headed to the cloud and new pos rerton Company Planning to by slack hi, my name is sam davis and im going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. Many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and Prescription Drugs. 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Dont you have like a hot pilates class to get to or something . [ muffled scream ] stop living with at t. Xfinity can deliver gig to the most homes. Salesforce has been able to do with mule and scale around this business nothing comes cheap in this world. Think of the stock more of a rounding error when you think of the move there using that currency makes a ton of sense to me. More options action full show on friday, 5 30. Up next final trade. Im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Thats why Td Ameritrade designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. Oh. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well except now youre binge learning. See how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from Td Ameritrade. Visit tdameritrade. Com learn. 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That is so false frustrated with your Online Search results . Call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands whove improved their online reputation. Get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. Final trade sponsored by interactive brokers. Minimize your cost maximize your return time for the final trade lets go around the horn, dan nathan yeah, just reiterating the apple. You got the consumer staple and Communications Director a discretional, i love it. Karen. First kudos to dan, slack power pick nice one there. My final is ihs. Tim seymour did you survive this crazy weather in the northeast. Im here. Got blown around, just, i mean, surprised we werent blown off the set. But if you look at the chinese mega cap names theyre kind of getting blown off the set over there on regulatory concerns i think ten cent is most interesting in tech incubator or game stock in the world this is weakness id be buying despite never want to challenge big brother in china but these are interesting stocks. Guy, we unfroze you, whats your final trade. Vi mck is going to win in the cod race my mission is simple to make you money. I am here to level the plain field for all investors there is always a bull market some where i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramer america. I am trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you. Call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me jim cramer i am so sick hearing it is time to rotat