The s p closed at a new all time high the dow is within 100 points of its own record airlines were up, cruise lines were up. Is the consumer back in business despite the long list of headwinds that are still out there . Brian kelly, kick it off if you look at this kshape recovery, i think part of the consumer is back in business and i think part of the consumer is stocking up again. So the real question is, as we go into the winter and cases surge, how does the consumer behave is this the last push to the time when the consumer locks down or are people going to go about their lives as usual i dont know the answer. As far as the market, it doesnt seem there is a lot of riskreward because you dont know what will be the dominant factor over the next six weeks to two months. We just heard from President Trump in the rose garden to say he expects a vaccine as well as treatment to be given approval for emergency use by the end of the year if you are in a state where infections are rising, you might be spending your money on toilet paper and canned goods and not be in the mood for sweaters. That might be true, but investors are looking past this rise in covid cases and are focusing on positive news that we saw come out on monday from fiez ter pfizer. We know modernarou will be comi out with theirs. We anticipate good news there. Con summers are sitting with Savings Rates higher than historical average heading into the Holiday Season consumers pulled back a little bit, but when you look at a Federal Reserve there to support the economy when you have low rates going on we have 30year Mortgage Rates yesterday that came out at 2. 98 . I think consumers are ready to continue spending on a modified basis. I know you have been stockpiling cashmere sweaters, but chase card spending has fallen notably and in particular they have seen it where covid cases are rising fastest for instance, a decline in north dakota how do you factor that in with the good news from the fed when people on the ground are tightening their belt . None of us have talked about the fed in the longest time. I cant remember the last time i said the fed before tonight. I think rates are rising they are not going to be going lower. Thats why you see the rate kicking in i think it was such a pull forward, melissa, products everyone needed or thought they needed now they are sitting on their hands. I think the way you swear this up, market ripped it did people think the market was going to fade after the election i did. You needed checks and balance. Now we have that people had to overestimate what that checks and balance was going to be for the marketplace. I do believe the market has gotten ahead of itself georgia runoff what happens if there is a blue wave still there will be another overadjustment and the market doesnt have the luxury of finding out until january. What does that mean . Sell before year end you can always buy back in january. But you are not going to have that flexibility, if you will, to say taxes arent going up, Capital Gains arent going up. You just dont know until january 5, so i think you have to be careful in the waters we are in right now james, you have been proposing there would be a major pullback we havent seen it i wonder if the election is now off the table, and there is a possibility of a blue wave, do you stand by that pullback call . This is a bubble that will burst at any moment. It could burst from the wave of lockdowns coming, new strain of the virus or delayed stimulus. If we look where the market stands, we are at alltime highs which is 13 higher than we were last thanksgiving where we had reached alltime highs and then 5 above february highs precovid. That implies this Market Going Forward is stronger than precovid which is impossible. We also have to understand we have to slow down. We have had two 9 pullbacks in the previous six weeks which was the first sign of weakness in this market. We expect a full pullback. 10 , which we have touched twice. And if not, it would be 20 . And that still holds true. Maybe even no stimulus until january or february. We are climbing a world of worry that the market is digesting these things and taking it in stride as opposed to what james is predicting, a 20 pullback. I hope james is right to an extent there is continued volatility. We still have uncertainties around the election to an extent and around covid there have been high flyers. Use them as an opportunity to put them in your portfolio the fundamentals still look pretty good. You have unemployment continuing to improve when you look at manufacturing, its continuing to improve businesses are saying inventories are low going into a Holiday Season you have numbers where its across the board good in production i think the numbers are strong you have in pull us through. I am more optimistic than james through the end of the year. But do you bet against the consumer if we are stuck at home and the pandemic is miserable, maybe you will splurge on the presents to get the tree filled out on the bottom and maybe you have and that will show up in the report next week the question is is that as good as we get . I am not as smart as somebody like steve grasso. Too me there are too many cross currents where i want to look elsewhere in the world i look over to japan, breaking out from a 20year consolidation pattern. They have the virus well tifl und relatively under control i will look elsewhere. Grass dd you set the bar i guess. Admitting it is half of it. We thought it would be a good time to play shop it or drop it. B. K. , we will kick off with you. As a trader, when you shop an order around you want to sell it, but thats not how this game works apparently shop is green that means you buy it. Thats what i want to do, buy it i was confused again but tjx, i think you buy this one or shop it because lets say you have a weak consumer, they will be the beneficiary of any of the inventory being sold off. Not only that, they have crushed it through this whole period of time i want to be in this thing steve, what do you think about tjx . I would say drop it or fade it because of everything b. K. Just said. Normally they take that excess flow or inventory from other stores i think people are through that. I think people have what they are going to sell. They didnt reorder in bulk. I would say drop tjx are you shopping or dropping walmart. Walmart is up 49 enough it is one of the most Successful Companies in the country they have a tail wind. People panic and go to the stores this company is not going to continue to drive up so you are dropping it . Dropping it i am going to buy it. If we get another lockdown, walmart gets a government mandated monopoly. They will get to stay open and a lot of momentum. Home depot would also be immune from lockdown they report tuesday. Shop it or drop it we are shopping home depot. We own it in our portfolio you have Mortgage Rates at such low extreme so you have builders out there we hear diana talking about there is not enough building inventory. We know three families in the middle of remodeling their homes right now. Thats a home depot customer we think there is a runway for this name. We would add it. James, what do you say . Home depot is 80 bigger than its direct competitors too expensive so i am dropping it you played it well this time, james. Brian kelly, how do you feel about home depot that was succinct can i shrop it i am not sure if the housing trade is over. I dont think we have a graphic for it, but i would be a buyer if it broke its most recent range. And shop or drop this this is victorias secrets, pink a lot of these names b. K. Loves to shop in this is a turn around story or is it survival this will be a shop it for me. I think the chart looks excellent, above all of its moving averages. I think you are okay i know thats counter intuitive. I hear that b. K. Likes the peach mango body scrub i think we would drop it. We are going into a Holiday Season and that could be good for victorias secret and pink, but on the longer trade i think it will come down quite a bit so we will drop it. There is a real possibility of bankruptcy and i love my 17yearold daughter so much so she can have anything she wants from there but i will drop it i feel like i maligned you indicating you enjoy a fruity body scrub i am glad you guys recognize my hygiene i work hard. I am more of a coreander guy, but i would take mango but i have already stocked up for christmas. It just rolled off your tongue kudos. Is there still big opportunity in big oil later we are digging in on bitcoin and the boomnd a one thing the charts show that are completely different this time around back in two. For over 30 years, lexus has been celebrating driveway moments. Heres to one more, the lexus december to remember sales event. Lease the 2021 rx 350 for 419 a month for 36 months and well make your first months payment. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Dont settle for silver 1 for diabetic dry skin 1 for psoriasis symptom relief and 1 for eczema symptom relief gold bond champion your skin gold bond keeping your oysters busihas you swamped. You need to hire. I need indeed indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base claim your seventyfivedollar credit when you post your first job at indeed. Com promo youre choosing whento get connected to xfinity mobile, to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. Welcome back energy having its best week ever, rallying 20 , but it is by far the worst performing sector this year. So oil just turned a big corner. What do you say . I think there is possibility in that. Being bullish oil is the ultimate reopening trade where people start flying again and taking cruises again so you have that aspect. The second part is uhis you ha opec players i think by being short oil, you are betting against the entire world who wants the as set to go higher so in a sense, if you want to bet in the spring what the driving season will look like, you could probably get into oil and energy stocks. Victoria, you were once in this trade and then said goodbye is it looking good again i am sitting in houston so i hate to say anything negative about this sector, but it is not an area we want to be in at this point in time. They are having a hard time earning their cost of capital. They dont fit in when we look for loan net debt. They are not working for us. That is not to negate what b. K. Said it is a reopening trade, but instead we would flip and look at utilities where you have a goodpower and light component. We think there are other areas you can invest in. James, if you are calling for a 20 pullback, my guess is you are not Long Energy Stocks biden, biden, biden three names, one she mentioned, up an average of 8 since Election Results 2 trillion planned in green energy and impact backlashes would be offshore production as victoria said, we saw this coming with a tick up in utilities. If you look at utility uef, they are not your old power companies. This is a sector we think will be making money when we come off that 20 we which we are calling for. You are not going to get 2 trillion in green energy if the republicans hold the senate so it is a flip of the coin if you look at ten, its up 140 xle is down 142 if republicans hold the senate you still buy xle and its going higher bitcoin to its highest figure in years. Si se ir the al mighty dolla longomofts might keep it right here going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. Many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and Prescription Drugs. With original medicare youre covered for hospital stays and Doctor Office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then, youre still responsible for 20 percent of the cost. Next, lets look at a Medicare Supplement plan. As you can see they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and coinsurance, but they often have higher monthly premiums and no Prescription Drug coverage. Now, lets take a look a humanas Medicare Advantage plans. With a humana medicare plan, hospital stays, Doctor Office visits, and medicare deductibles are covered. And, of course, most humana Medicare Advantage plans include Prescription Drug coverage. In fact, in 2019, humana Medicare AdvantagePrescription Drug plan members saved and estimated 7,800 dollars on average on their prescription costs. Most humana Medicare Advantage plans include a Silver Sneakers Fitness Program at no extra cost. Dental and vision coverage is now included with most humana Medicare Advantage plans, and you get telehealth coverage with a zero dollar copay. You get all this for as low as a zero dollar monthly plan premium in many areas, and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humanas large network. If you want the facts, call right now for the free decision guide from humana. There is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network, to find out if you can save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. Humana a more human way to healthcare. Welcome back bitcoin rising to its highest level since 2016 it is above the 16,000 mark. This time around searches are way down that seems like a good thing, brian kelly . I think it is if you want to interpret that as people are less yue forric to come in and buy bitcoin, thats great. And i think there is a different investor class here. 2017 you had a Retail Investor and now its the professional, family office, high net worth, institutions coming in and buying they have probably taken 18 months to do their research and do less of their research on google than in house you mean paul doesnt sit there and type in bitcoin . In terms of this, it was 2017 at this time of year, thanksgiving when they talked about it at the table and then they started buying it. Isnt there such a thing as institutional as well and is that not as dangerous . I think its probably as dangerous. Anybody who is long bitcoin is probably counting on that institutional. But what i would say, just remember with bitcoin, as we go through this bull market, it can have months down 20 and 30 . More than any other asset class i have traded, investors will be at the top and very depressed at the bottom so be aware of that. When bitcoin is down, we say it has had the worst week in a year, thats when to get bullish. James are you on the bitcoin no, i wrote a book on this. Another baller on our panel papal announced yesterday they are going to bring out 26 million merchants to allow the new crypto payments. Thats very bullish. This is not an asset class you should try to manage there is a company that is run by genius hogan. But i think there is room for it ahead. That i had deadline i am going with sono. I think this one is going up about 20 . James . Apple ejx at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. If youre concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes . If you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities . For nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in Companies Making a difference because we see value in doing good. Talk to your Financial Advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. Try natures bounty sleep 3 a unique tri layer supplement, that calms you helps you fall a sleep faster and stay a sleep longer. Great sleep comes naturally with sleep 3 only from natures bounty but before we sign i gotta ask. Sure, anything. We searched you online and maybe you can explain this . I cant believe that garbage is still coming in. That is so false frustrated with your Online Search results . Call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands whove improved their online reputation. Get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. What a week. If you have made it to friday and options action this is what is coming up on the big show the almighty dollar except when its not. Offering his two cents why change is in the air then there is a pattern emerging on tonights show. Can you guess what it is Professor Mike has a