Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240712

Alphabet seeing outsized gains and treasury yields are under pressure giving back some of their recent pop, thats weighing on the financials the Kbw Bank Index is down around 3 with 59 minutes left in the session, banks one of the few decliners, sara, broader markets ripping up. We have a great lineup of guests over the next two hours to help make sense of the election, the market and your money. In just a few moments Guggenheims Scott Minerd will join us with his take on the rally and later we will hear from long time pharma exec fred hassan about the impact of the election on health care, those stocks zooming higher, plus kyle bass with a take on what all this means with the u. S. Relationship with china and bob diamond will weigh in on the banks. Lets get straight to the market rally that is happening. Mike santoli tracking all the action. You see a move like this, its very sudden, very dramatic in response to a widely watched known catalyst and you have two things, one is whats the fresh bit of information, in this case most likely the salient piece for the markets is no likely blue wave and, therefore, no big reflation trade, heavy fiscal stimulus, that was the first conclusion, but it also tells you which way the market was leaning and after that 6 pull back we had last week what was going on stocks and bonds were selling off together, yields were going up, value stocks were outperforming everyone was piling into cyclicals. Its been reversed we popped right up to this level of ten days ago so we keep making some progress but it is still within the context of this trading range at least for now and its not exactly kind of all roses underneath the surface take a look at the nasdaq 100 against the small cap russell 2000 this is since september 2nd, this is the peak of the overall stock market and the nasdaq. You see today is this very dramatic piece here, the russell is not doing much of anything today but it still hasnt caught up to whats going on in the last two months. This is about the laggard group that are heavy in the indexes just doing a little bit of catch up right here and thats why people were caught maybe just slightly wrong footed with this news, not necessarily that all of a sudden it changed the economic complexion of the market or anything like that finally take a look at the vix futures curve. For months ive been talking about how traders were front loading a ton of anxiety, paying up for protection against volatility surrounding the election this is the curve showing you these contracts expiring from now every month out through middle of next year. This orange line was yesterday, massive shift lower in the entire curve into today, theres probably still more room for it to go down if you get further confirmation of some kind of clear result on the election, but this is selfreinforcing because essentially you bring the volatility levels down, everybodys risk model says you can own a little bit more and its an accelerant for stocks on the upside in the short term at least. All those dynamics are at play today. Mike, is there a sense based on also the few doors action overnight that the market just wanted some kind of result, almost regardless of what the result was, and that would lead to stocks broadly being higher today. With the makeup exactly of what was most high being depending on the result. I mean, the nasdaq really started to rip last night high dwler and lead the gains as opposed to lag the gains which were already there when it started to become clear who was winning in the lead although we dont know the results yet. I think thats a fair way of looking at it. It certainly was craving something that seemed like not just a clean result and not an instant result, but now what we have is a process that we can track and we can monitor and you sort of know what the moving parts are and perhaps theres light at the end of the tunnel to where there will be a final conclusion as opposed to this thing looming out there in the future that we have to be afraid is going to be plagued with an lease or other drama that we didnt anticipate. In the short term it was more than fully anticipated in the way people were hedged and perhaps underexposed to certain parts of the market. It was a wild night across Asset Classes for the dollar, for bonds, for stocks. Mike, thank you. We will talk a lot more about the market moves in a moment we do want to update you on the state of the election. Just moments ago nbc news reporting joe biden is the apparent winner in the state of wisconsin which means the results are close enough that the outcome may depend on a potential recount. It also brings the electoral vote totals to 237 for biden, 214 for trump. Nbc news also reporting that the Trump Campaign officials have been huddling at their virginia headquarters today with chief of staff mark meadows and Senior Advisor Jared Kushner plotting strategy and legal battles we are learning more about that legal strategy, the campaign, the Trump Campaign, has filed a lawsuit in michigan to halt ballot counting saying it hasnt been provided meaningful access to observe vote counting the campaign also plans to call for a recount in wisconsin and for more on that race in particular well go to phil lebeau who is in milwaukee hi, phil. Hi, sara. As you mentioned, nbc news is declaring joe biden the apparent winner here in wisconsin and while hes about 20,000 votes ahead of donald trump in the president ial race, the talley is close enough that it could change if there is a recount and the Trump Campaign is calling for a recount. Announcing within the last couple of hours that there have been reports of irregularities in several wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results. The president is well within the threshold to request a recount and we will immediately do so. As for the state of wisconsin, it says it ran an open and Fair Election weve had a recount before, it showed that we have a really good process we have a really good system and our local Election Officials are doing a phenomenal job so, you know, i believe that that would be the case if we had a recount again in our state so when would a recount take place . It depends on when the various counties file their results with the state, that sort of triggers the window in which the Trump Campaign would officially file for a recount. Remember december 1st that is the date to keep in mind, that is when the state of wisconsin certifies the election talley, obviously that would depend on whether or not the recount finds enough votes that could be disqualified, thrown out, et cetera, to change the outcome, but at this point nbc news says joe biden is the apparent winner of yesterdays race here in wisconsin. Guys, back to you. Phil, thanks so much for that. The balance of power in congress has not been finalized, ylan mui has the latest in the fight for the control of the senate. Democrats chances of winning the senate are slipping away as republicans hold on to critical seats in competitive states. Nbc news projecting that gop senator Susan Collins is the apparent winner of the race in maine. That means the results are close enough that the final outcome could depend on a potential recount or confirmation of the results. But this afternoon collins did say that her democratic challenger has conceded and collins called the outcome an affirmation of her work in washington meanwhile, nbc news rates the other key states the democrats had hoped to flip in North Carolina and georgia as still too close to call. Now, the odds look better in arizona where democrat mark kelly is leading so far, but democrats would need to win the senate races in all three of those states as well as the white house in order to control the chamber. Meanwhile, in the house where democrats were hoping to expand their existing majority, instead they are defending it. As republicans take back some suburban districts and the gop is celebrating this turn of events touting an increasingly Diverse Coalition that includes a Record Number of women and minorities, guys, republicans said today that they do feel more energized than ever even as washington grows more divided than ever. Back to you. Ylan, i think not a single poll expected collins to win in maine, so an extraordinary result there i guess as it relates to markets the question is whether or not were going to get a stimulus and Mitch Mcconnells tone was relatively warm towards the idea of a stimulus at least. Thats right. He did say that he felt that congress and the senate should turn to this before the end of the year that is a different time frame than he had given just a week ago when he was saying that this was something that wouldnt be taken up until 2021. So he does think that this is something that could be possible remember the government will need to be funded by december 11th to make sure that theres not another shutdown so that could potentially be another opportunity for lawmakers to come together on something and well certainly have to see how this changes the dynamics for nancy pelosi she had not been one who was open to doing a smaller package, but the moderates in her party have been calling for that, maybe after this election shell be more willing to compromise on that front, but we will have to see how it all turns out, will. Thanks so much for that. Stay tuned for much more ongoing election coverage all day long on cnbc coming up throughout the evening. You dont want to miss any of t the markets at the moment up 2. 5 on the s p, the dow is up about 500 points, the high of the session was 822 for the dow. After the break we will discuss with Guggenheims Scott Minerd on the markets as well as bond equities, then later we will get takes on how the election could impact everything from health care to the banks to americas relationship with china. Youre watching closing bell on cnbc. See yourself. Welcome back to the mirror. And know youre not alone. Because this. Come on jesse, one more . Is a reflection of an unstoppable community. In the mirror. Stocks soaring today as investors continue to await Election Results in several key swing states the nasdaq, the best performer of the major averages, its higher as we speak by 3. 8 the russell, though, is negative because largely the regional banks, the regional banks are down 6 as we speak, the main sector declining in the face of lower yields joining us in a first on cnbc interview for more on what the results could mean to the market scott minerd at Guggenheim Partners thanks for joining us. Great to see you as always first broad question, does this massive more higher particularly in the nasdaq make sense to you . I think so, will. Look, i was always of the opinion regardless of the outcome short of getting anarchy in the street that this would be good for stocks. I honestly believe a blue wave would be better, but, you know, i think even if trump were to be president that people would say, hey, you know, were not getting any big tax increases and, you know, we have a green light as long as the economy stays on track. Yields have moved lower, albeit the ten year is only back to where it was sort of last thursday or so, but given the move higher theyve had overnight before the pull back its quite a significant move in the long end of the yield curve. Does that make sense to you . Does it suggest that if we dont now get stimulus soon that we could be facing quite a bad economic hit well, i think that the first thing is that the reason that rates were rising is i think there was a lot of confidence in a blue wave and that the market was starting to discount that, in which case there would have been a lot of bond issuance for a large stimulus program, but when it became apparent that we werent getting the blue wave, the market which had been largely oversold and heavily shorted by hedge funds and other speculators suddenly found themselves having to cover and we got this, you know, massive reversion. Interestingly enough, though, given even this massive move in the last 24 hours the uptrend in yields is still intact, so we would have to see some further reduction in rates to start to believe we reverse trend, but i think the fact that we know that the size of stimulus will not be as large as was expected under the biden under a biden sweep, you know, that the market is saying, hey, weve gone too far in pricing and we need to reassess our outlook. But it sounds like, scott, youre stopping short of saying treasuries are a buy here on that reduced stimulus . Youre not advising that yet well, share ration yara, it, i often feel like people get confused with the role of an investor and the role of a speculato speculator look, i spent 15 years of my career on wall street basically speculating and so if i were worried about a shortterm move i probably would take my profits now and, you know, wait for the next indication of what we think would happen, but if you are an investor and youre looking six months into the future, i think the argument is pretty solid that rates will go lower and so i wouldnt want to be underweight bonds or duration at this point because every time people have been making that bet, like they were yesterday, you know, it ends in tears. What about stocks from here, scott . So obviously theres a lot of bullishness around the prospect here of a divided government, no tax hikes, but then what you know, if we werent talking about the election we would be talking about hospitalizations surging in this country and covid19 cases rising and the fact that doctors warn were entering the most difficult period of the pandemic here into winter, no matter who wins the election, this is still going to be President Trumps strategy. So whats that going to mean for the economy and the direction of markets . Well, i think that, look, the first thing is the seasonals reverse themselves in late october, which is, you know, the period between august and october historically a rough time for equities, but there are large inflows into Pension Funds in the Fourth Quarter and so i think some of this lift is a result of a swing in seasonals once we you know, obviously, sara, i am deeply concerned about the pandemic the rate of new covid cases has gone exponential increase, and that wasnt the case back during the first wave, it was more of a linear rise. So i think we are still in for a pretty severe period of infection coming through the Fourth Quarter and into the first. That obviously is going to create a lot of noise in the question, but its going to put more stimulus or more pressure on stimulus and the republicans in the senate to compromise on providing even more stimulus so at the end of the day if you can clear the smoke and kind of look through whats going on in the next six months as an investor i think that you have to be fairly positive for all risk assets, whether its bonds i mean, high yield bonds, Corporate Bonds and also for stocks. Does that equate, scott, to being fairly negative on the u. S. Dollar . Yes, it does. At the end of the day i think the dollar has had its up move over the last few years and, you know, the sea change has come and i think a weaker dollar is going to be in the cards for the next few years scott minerd, good to get your first take as we continue to wait more results scott mine erred from guggenheim. Take a look at the market, rally going strong we are, though, off the session highs. The dow is up 432 points, we were up more than 800 at one point, still a 2. 3 gain for the s p and check out the nasdaq, star of the show, all day long, starting from last night up 3. 6 as tech stocks surge the russell 2000 index and small caps is negative coming up on the show, Health Care Stocks are among the biggest winners today and we await the outcome of the election, we will talk to fred hassan about what the results could mean for that sector stay with us on closing bell. Do you up 435 points stock slices. Chwab for as little as 5, even if their shares cost more. At 5 a slice, you could own Ten Companies for 50 starting from last night stay with us on closing bell. All Commission Free online. Schwab stock slices an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. Schwab. Own your tomorrow. A number of health care and pharma stocks are up big right now but the biggest winner of them all today is biogen check out that move, its up 40 . A little more than that, on some positive data for its alzheimers drug meg tirrell has more on the story. This was a moment that biotech investors have been waiting for. This morning the fda releasing some briefing documents ahead of a meeting of outside advisers on friday to assess this alzheimers drug and given the size of this market the number of people with alzheimers and the fact that if this drug is approved it would be the first approved to slow the course of the disease, that is why the stock is up so much here, but it is not a drug without controversy. Check out this graph of biogen stock price over the last two years and you can see why. Back in march of 2019 biogen discontinued the phase three trials of this drug saying they didnt look like they were going to work, then in october they got some more information that told them, wait, maybe this might work and they saw a potential path forward with the fda. Since then its been this waiting game and today we heard from the fda that they are looking at this pretty positive positively so friday its panel of outside advisers will meet and talk about whether to recommend that this drug works and then the fda is set to decide on whether to approve it by march. Their briefing documents today were so much more positive than people on wall street expected, brian scorny writing this morning the message is clear, the fda wants to approve this drug guys, thats why the huge move for die bye owe jen and potential more on friday the vote will be around 4 00 so it will be right here on closing bell. Back over to you. Meg, great stuff. We look forward to that. Up 40 today health care is the best performing sector there, 4. 5 . Still ahead, Hedge Fund Manager kyle bass will join us on his take on how the election outcome could impact americas relationship with china and what that could mean for your markets and money. Bonds dropping sharply today, ten year back below 0. 8 , it jumped overnight 0. 9 big overnight move at 0. 68 its back to where it was last tuesday were back in a couple minutes welcome back 30 minutes to go and the dow is up more than 400 points off the highs but the nasdaq is still surging almost 4 . Lets get to sue herera for a news update. Hello here is whats happening at this hour a group backed by the democratic governor j. B. Pritzker of illinois has conceded defeat at the polls for their constitutional amendment which would have created a graduated state income tax instead of the current flat tax it is warning about consequences for the states finances pritzker who was a billionaire was pitted against billionaire Hedge Fund Manager ken griffin who led the opposition. With france reporting a record daily high of more than 50,000 new covid cases this week a military plane is being used to transfer some patients from the heavily hit leon area to the city of nantz. Good good for Diego Maradona emergency surgery for bleeding on his brain was successful with no complications and that is a big relief for the many fans who have been posting well wishes and photos at the hospital near buenos aires youre up to date. Thank you so much for that. Lets have a closer look now at how investors are trading election uncertainty leslie picker is tracking hedge Fund Movement and kate rooney has information on retail. Hedge fund are unwinding the blue wave trade they put in place in the weeks leading up to the election, instead they are pricing in a divided government with biden in the white house and the senate controlled by republicans. So what does that mean for you the markets . As jefferies put it, skinny stimulus, fatter fed yields plummeting overnight and remaining low today due to the expectation for a smaller fiscal package that implies lower inflation and greater feed for fed activities in equities the lack of a blue wave is reversing factor rotations seen in recent weeks as outlinedly jpmorgan including a move towards growth from value, defensiveness from cyclicless and a tilt back to the u. S. From asia the end result of these elections are far from guaranteed and hedge funds dont appear to be trading today with an exorbitant amount of conviction indicated by modest leverage levels, guys. Thats interesting, leslie, thank you. Lets send it over to kate rooney for now Retail Investors are reacting to the election retail traders are big on election sensitive names lets start with clean energy. Neo was the most traded stock across roughly 10 million accounts that use apex clearing. New activity was up 162 compared to an average day it was also the most without stock on sofis Trading Platform workhor workhorse, plug power also moved in the top ten which would suggest traders are pricing in a biden victory. Recreational marijuana was on the ballot in multiple states and Aurora Cannabis and others saw trading activity more than double and buys outpacing sales three to one finally Ride Hailing Companies got a boost after proposition 22 passed here in california. Uber and lyft trades with up more than 750 compared to your average day. But, guys, overall Trading Volume is down slightly according to apex, suggesting some of these traders are waiting until there is a little bit more certainty back to you. Theres that conviction thing, again leslie, just curious, with the reversal today that were seeing in value names, like materials, utilities, financials, industrials, those are all under pressure and the Technology Stocks underperforming how big of a bet that had grown into in the last few weeks when we had seen those value and infrastructure plays outperform on growing belief of a blue wave, theyre all going the other way. At the trends over the last few weeks especially as the polls suggested that there was a blue wave, you started to see a lot more wall Street Research come in with the words blue wave at the top of it and as a result there were certain factor tilts that people were pursuing to capitalize on that ahead of election day a lot of traders have learned from mistakes from 2016 and that kind of goes to the point that we mentioned about conviction and the lack of leverage that people were kind of trading this but they were trading it not in a way that was just overwhelming so you started to see i think the number is about a 2 to 5 lift in value so not an overwhelming, you know, 10 gain in these names that would suggest kind of more conviction and more trust in the polling data that they saw because back in 2016 a lot of hedge funds got flatfooted when they were on the opposite side of the trade because they were relying too much on the polls to base their bets on. Leslie and kate, thank you both very much for that. Health care is the best performing sector today, some names seeing double digit gains. Up next we will talk with former sharon plow ceo if he had mass thses theyory racewi k f e ctor s this exquisite bowl of french onion dip. Im going to start the bidding at 5. Thank you, sir. Looking for 6. 6 over there do i hear 7 . 7 in the front 7 going once. Going twice. Sold to the onion lover in the front row next up is lot number 17, a spinach and artichoke dip, beautifully set in a hollowedout loaf of sourdough bread. Dont get mad get e trade and get more than just trading investing. Banking. Guidance. Weve got 23 minutes left of trade. The s p is up 2. 4 , the nasdaq zooming higher, tech stocks are flying, up its almost 4 , the dow up 17 , doesnt have as much exposure as the other indexes to technology, but number one, health care. That sector is the biggest winner and take a look at United Healthcare that is correct stock is leading the dow the Company Responsible for an outsized triple digit contribution right now to than decks, but some of these other names like amgen, fred hassan is on the board of and a number of others are surging lets welcome mr. Hassan, besides sitting on the board of amgen he was formerly the ceo of shearing plow. Health care is a big winner of divided government because nobody can implement any major structural changes to the sector, especially the Insurance Industry is that the right thinking yeah, that is the right thinking this is very undecided election and we are essentially a centrist country we dont like extremes and the same applies to the health care ecosystem. If the far right or far left push, the ecosystem doesnt react well to that, it reacts very well to incremental change and a lot has changed in the last ten years and the marketbased way of doing it really is the most effective way of doing it because thats sustainable and its going in the right direction. Government led work is not particularly effective because then the next administration might change it. So the marketbased reforms are really the best way to change the system. So that explains some of the gains in the insurers. What about for pharmaceuticals, fred, and the populist going after Drug Companies for high drug prices, is it right to assume, too, that it would be harder to implement big changes with a split government . Its very fashionable to go after pharma every election cycle, its been like that for the last three decades, a lot more in the last two decades and it was intensifying this year, but then covid hit and the savior is the pharma business. Were all waiting for the vaccine and the monoclonal antibodies and they are around the corner, they are very close. Its unprecedented for a virus to be discovered and inside a year to have access to vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. I have the industry has an opportunity to really improve its image and to really develop a new social contract with the American People and i think the American People once and for all have realized that the buy ee science ecosystem is truly a National Treasure and one shouldnt really let these election cycles and the populist rhetoric hurt this ecosystem i dont think its going to hurt because bio science is too strong and both sides need better drugs so its not going to happen and of course a stabilized senate, which is the way its looking like right now, is going to be very good. The Senate Leader and also senator graham, they both understand the Health Care Industry and i dont think theyre anxious to do any major changes here. Fred, when you look at some of the names that have been most involved with develop vaccines and treatments for covid, do you think their share prices have been bid up too much or not enough when you consider that theyre probably not going to be able to make a huge profit on these vaccines and also it could be something thats relatively shortlived and we might, hopefully, be celebrating having covid behind us within a year or so. That is a very good question because i think with 160 projects chasing covid i think there is overinvestment occurring from a rational point of view, however, its the right thing to do for society. It is correct that the smaller names are doing very well because naturally covid has a huge effect on the value of the stock, but its really very likely that one of the two leading mra mrnabased vaccines are going to get there because they have seen no side effect issues so far and they are keeping on watching the efficacy data and thats going to thats around the corner its likely that there will be one of them thats going to get a vaccine. There is these monoclonal antibodies which are very, very good, very therapeutic to get to the covid very quickly, they are already available under emergency use authorization. I think theres a lot thats going to be happening here and these Smaller Company stocks are pretty strong because of covid i think you have to look at a stock by stock basis if you are looking at a pfizer, thats such a huge super tanker that this particular project is not going to move the stock very much if youre looking at others, maybe, yeah, theyll move a lot. But in reality in about five months it will become very difficult to enroll new patients because it will become unethical to put people on placebo when there are effective medicines available. And lily is up 14 right now, regeneron is getting a big boost as well, fred. I know you are talking a lot about the good and hopeful signs from these monoclonal antibodies treatments and ive listened to you early on this as potential Game Changers in the fight against covid. The problem is they dont have enough doses i mean, what good are they if they only have 50,000 doses and we need millions of doses as we head into next year, especially if the vaccine cant be fully effective and not everyone is going to take it well, this is one reason why i think the u. S. Has an edge because we have our own industry here, but youre absolutely right, we will need millions of doses, in the case of the early Monoclonal Antibodies Companies you may be aware that amgen has stepped forward to help lily make the antibodies. People are doing it for the right reason they want to make capacity available. And hopefully the vaccines are going to be so good that one is not going to need these therapeutic monoclonal antibodies in that quantity. I think in our country it will be more a challenge of distribution as opposed to the speed of manufacture, but i fully agree with you, share ration for the rest of the world we will need to get as much out there as possible. This is a terrible plague that has come upon us and we need to help the rest of the world as well. Fred, thanks for joining us my pleasure straight ahead, ride sharing and gaming stocks seeing a boost today, we will break down the val ant measures that could be a boost for your portfolio thats next in the market zone be sure to stay with cnbc throughout the evening for i dont know going ectleion coverage all day long. Closing bell will be back in a couple minutes sherg plow cheringplough you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. But we are hoping things will pick up by q3. Yeah. Uh. Boss doug . Sorry about that. Umm. What. Its. Um. Boss you alright . [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e trade. It has powerful, easytouse tools to help you find opportunities, 24 7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures Contract Prices around. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. 13 machines left in the trading day, we are now in the closing bell market zone, commercialfree coverage of all the action heading into the close. Rick santelli here to break down the closing moments and today we have josh brown with us as well. Grch to you, i dont wish. Lets kick things off with the broader markets. The nasdaq massively outperforming on track for its best day in merely seven months, up a healthy 3. 8 , the dow is up around about 450 points, it was up almost double that, 822 at the highs of the day mike, the market just welcoming the fact that the election is behind us, even if the results arent. Thats certainly part of it also there was perhaps one scenario that was implicitly underpriced by the market going into the election which was a little bit of a gridlocky feel, no blue wave and maybe the Growth Stocks had catch up to do, if you look at that inter day chart we showed of the nasdaq and twichd higher in the morning, people did make a grab for the momentum Growth Stocks that have been sort of left behind a couple of months ago and then it went to sleep from there. So i dont know necessarily that this is some kind of real tide change in terms of which way the market is going to go and what kind of stocks its going to privilege but for today it seemed as if the market was a little bit caught on its back foot with regard to this scenario. Its not over yet, josh, and if the big fear going in was that we would get a contested election, i dont know, the trump the Trump Campaign is suing michigan, talking about suing pennsylvania, looking into a possible recount in wisconsin. It doesnt feel like this is going to end quietly so thats a great point, sara, but it wasnt going to end quietly no matter what this could have been a blue wave, it could have been the biggest blow out we have seen in 25 years and it still would have been contested and it wouldnt have ended quietly and even if this thing gets certified by christmas and biden is inaugurated january 20th, its still probably wont be over because then the former president is launching a news network. So the thing to understand here is that the consensus was for chaos. Meanwhile, were almost 24 hours removed from the first dates being announced, nothing is on fire, all of the counting thats going on is fairly ordinary, the lawsuits were filed even before election day, so new lawsuits arent really going to phase this market and we went back to all of the trends that were already in force facebook up huge, alphabet up huge, that whole cohort. The semiconductors ripping. Theyve been ripping for nine months Home Builders ripping. Theyve been ripping so this is all very standard, very status quo, not much has changed from yesterday to today. Were very much still in the same environment and i think thats what youre seeing the market doing here, its exhaling. Not exactly true because if you look over the last few weeks value had really caught a bid and we saw groups like industrials and materials rising on infrastructure hopes and we saw small caps rising and treasury yields rising on hopes of a big stimulus. Thats all being reversed. That happens like once every five or six weeks and then it unrave unravels whats more important, the trend of the last month or the trend of the last year the trend of the last year is now back in force, it may have taken a breather, it took a breather dont forget from the middle of may through the middle of june last year, we had that big fake out where the ten year almost went to 1 and value was catching up and small caps were outperforming large caps and yadda, yadda and then the whole thing unraveled, thats happens periodically the Bigger Picture thing is that rates will remain low, demography favors the Home Builders, semiconductors are the new industrials, they are all that matters in terms of the global recovery. The things that were vulnerable yesterday to the virus are every bit as vulnerable today because we have absolutely no control over this thing and the work from anywhere stocks continue to benefit from a continuation of the current environment. And it doesnt matter if biden is the president or trump in january, these are secular mega trends, theyre not going away and these stocks continue to be discovered and rediscovered even if they take that kind of a break that youre describing. Lets talk more election ripple effects in the market Ride Sharing Companies seeing a big pop after california passed a key ballot measure, deirdre bosa has more details. Prop 22 passing, that is a major win for uber, lyft and Gig Economy Companies especially as other states consider their own gig regulation it exempts the Ride Sharing Companies from reclassifying their drivers as employees, a move that as weve talked about would have totally upended their Business Models and raised costs significantly for riders it didnt come cheap, though, supporting the initiative cost them 200 million. Uber and lyft also still had to promise some benefits and a wage floor in exchange which will add to their costs uber reports tomorrow, guys, and lyft next week with some of the regulatory overhang resolved for now attention is going to turn back to the bottom line and those still large losses over to you. Thanks so much. I think im picking that up. Josh brown, whats your take on these names, i know youve always kept a close eye on uber. Do you think this is very big . Go for it. Well, i own uber and fortunately this was one of the stocks that was on my radar during the crash this march and i was able to add to it sand lower my average cost because i was one of the bag holders that bought it shortly after it came public, but now my average cost is much lower. So i am a happy shareholder today. I had assumed at some point we would find the middle ground between fully employed with no control over your own time, versus fully independent with absolutely no benefits whatsoever, it looks like california voters like the idea of there being something in the middle where uber, lyft, door dash, all of these companies are somewhat responsible while not fully classifying people as their employees. This is the way of the future. There really is no stopping t he think what this proposition did was affirm the fact that these drivers want to preserve some of their free time and their independence they dont want to be wholly employed and the proof of that is how many of them work for both companies you cant be a fulltime employee of both uber and lyft, can you . Which one pays your health care . So this strikes me as right and i think its a big victory for uber, im long, i remain long, i think this company goes on to much, much greater things over the years to come and im a happy shareholder today. Well, that was the companys argument as well, that a lot of their drivers work for both. No, dara is no joke, he was right. As a shareholder you would say that mike, just a question on the move today, 14 higher for uber. Is that surprising that there was that much of an overhang on the stock as a result of this prop 22 and does it tell you anything about the playbook if these issues do continue to surface because there will continue to be questions about gig workers and whether theyre treating their employees effectively . Sure, i dont think its a surprising magnitude of the move just because of what a threat it might have been if the vote went the other way, although this is a good lesson that the market does not necessarily magically sniff out the results of ballot measures because it was 5842, it was not close at all, and yet the market was not prepared to actually front run that, at least not fully, at the price right now uber shares are right back to where they were in the precovid crash high in february 19th or so so its made a crazy round trip, its no, not crashing up to new highs so i think in that context it makes sense, especially because they have the eats business which kind of keeps the story going that they have a little bit of an answer for shutdown times. Lets talk about one sector thats declining today, sharply, in fact, banks partly because, of course, yields are moving lower, particularly the regional banks who have more exposure to Interest Rates yields did temporarily move higher overnight but are very much lower today and its worth noting the ten year is only back to where it was less than a week ago. Like weiss Bank Share Prices have essentially given up gains from the prior few sessions. Regional banks are lower week to date, but bigger cap thanks while theyre down today are still just about higher on the week, but, mike, thats a onemonth chart and amazing how closely the two have tracked each other, yields and regional banks, same for the bigger banks as well. The other factor of course which is itself lind to yields is hopes for a stimulus, disproportionately linked as a sector to that and a i think thats exactly what were seeing today, the hopes of a stimulus have been pushed back a little bit or the certainty of within at least has been lowered and therefore yields are lower and therefore banks are lower. Its been the main input for that group right now one encouraging thing is that even with this pull back in treasury yields, you know, its still trending higher over the last few months, it hasnt completely broken this trend that its been traveling for a while and also from todays opened low on all the bank stocks, like if you looked at usb or comerica or a lot of the core regional banks they all traded up pretty nicely from the low ten minutes after the open of trading so its not as if the market was kind of falling apart in this area and punishing them incrementally as the day went on so maybe it ends up being a little bit of a gut check and not really an end of their run. The only other point i would add, sara, is if Vice President biden does win the white house there is a small medium to longterm offset for the banks, a potential risk that was out there was a very progressive treasury secretary or progressive list of appointees to various regulators for the banks and, again, with a still to be confirmed Republican Senate that risk i guess has been lowered a little bit but the yields is whats driving these stock prices today, therefore, lower for the banks. No i think its a really good point. I think it would be harder for Mitch Mcconnell to approve Elizabeth Warren as treasury secretary than someone a little more moderate, which is important, i guess, for the banks. I wanted to also hit gaming stocks, like draftkings and Penn National higher on a number of ballot measures, we will talk about that in just a few moments. Mike, we want to get to you on the internals because we are running out of time, we have just over two minutes left in the trading day, what are you seeing not terribly impressive considering you had the s p 500 up 3 at one point during the day. So this is one of those days where the strength is coming out of the many and into the few, the very big mega caps, thats not the only story but it is sort of the lesson, declining volume outpacing advancing volume as the rally back slides a little bit this is one day but it definitely shows you its been a lopsided move during this rally day. And then if you want to take a look here at some of the components of these factors that have been moving the momentum, etf obviously way outperforming value so this has been a little bit of a flip from the recent trend, almost a 5 percentage point spread just on todays action, volatility index its pretty much in crash mode as you might expect when you had this big known event that was passing us by. Down below 30, it was 40 late lass week. Probably room to go down but i wouldnt be surprised if we flatten out because we do still have the ongoing vote counting process and a lot of perceived twoway risk. We have a minute left thanks, mike the s p is up 2. 2 , the dow is up 1. 3 , the nasdaq still leads the charge up 3. 8 we have slipped from the highs of the session, for example, the dow was up 822 at the high, only up 351 at the moment, health care, tech, Communication Services quite near the highs for the session up 4 , some of the cyclicals are what have dragged the dow down towards the end of the fegs, financials in particular, the region banks down close 207 , yields havent worsened as we approach the close, still below the 0. 8 handle, 0. 77 on the ten year, but nonetheless banks have slipped as we have approached the close and thats worsened the picture for the dow. Also worsened the picture for the russell which is essentially flat and not in positive territory to close the other indices resoundingly positive still, the s p up 2. 2 , now 5. 3 for the week, sara. Continuing a strong week and a big postelection rally. Welcome back, everyone if you are just joining us im sara eisen along with wilfred frost and mike santoli take a look at how we finished up up day, the dow up 369 points, well off the session highs but still a sizable rally. Unh, United Health care the biggest winner in the dow. All of the health care names especially insurers rallied today, caterpillar big infrastructure play, hit the hardest, down 7 on the day, s p 500 up 2. 2 on the close health care and Communication Services those sectors rallied more than 4 each. But you did see weakness in materials, utilities, financials and industrials. Biggest winner on the day the Nasdaq Technology in the lead, 3. 85 was the gain on the nasdaq today. That brings it to more than 6 for the week so far. The russell 2000 index of small caps lagged all day, some of those value and smaller names did underperform, it managed to close positive but just barrel coming up this hour kyle bass will be here to weigh in on the rally and discuss how trade relationships will evolve with china if joe biden does win the president ial election. First lets talk about this market, josh brown is here, also sara malek here to join the conversation share ration welcome to you. Over to you, it was a celebration of a potential blue wave yesterday, now that weve seen results a celebration of a potential divided government, make sense of it all for us. I dont know if today was as much a celebration of that or it was just yesterdays action in rewind at least partially because it just felt as if some of those trades the reflation trade, higher yields, value stocks working, industrials ripping and all the rest, positioning for a manufacturing reviechl, that stuff got pretty extreme, i guess, in the short term and today was just a matter of people getting a little bit checked on those positions because they did not necessarily fully grasp the possibility of this splitgovernment idea, the low and slow idea of low rates and relatively Slower Growth that said i think this is largely a positioning issue and people were sort of having to grab for some of the old leaders as opposed to the market in its vast wisdom saying now we are back in that high liquidity low growth environment for, you know, however knows how long to come. Sara, what did you make of todays rally . Do you think its justified . Markets actually usually hate uncertainty, but that wasnt the case today and thats because either outcome for this election should be market friendly, if we get trump we get a bigger stimulus package, with biden its a smaller package but with the Republican Senate we shouldnt have higher taxes or higher regulation so thats a positive, too. Were positioning for this growth wave were starting to see today, lower rates, lower inflation, a flat to weaker dollar and less stimulus should lead to moderate Economic Growth and that will benefit these Technology Companies and health care and also looking outside of the u. S. , emerging markets could be a beneficiary under a biden presidency because of the weaker dollar and less trade tensions mike santoli, the smartest note i read today was from a strategist who said slow recovery, lower growth and rates for longer play book is out. That was you in your note. What does that mean and how are you defining that . Well, i mean, if you want to go back to that post 2009 period, 2010 where you did have that initial fiscal stimulus but then after that any further efforts at really doing a big if i say ral push was stymied in congress and what you did have is the Federal Reserve back stopping things, you had very low rates, qe, big Growth Stocks, dominant companies that were pressing their advantage and they had the valuations expand i dont think that were that its up, up and away for that trade right now. My point is today was a harkening back to that at the moment and mostly because that playbook has been neglected over the last several weeks or so as with he did have this move in the other direction where basically people thought almost any formula for this election was going to be coming up, heavy stimulus and not necessarily Something Like that growth leadership again. Josh, talking to the broader markets, if we do see major legal challenges to the result or we see significant spikes in cases and with it the question of whether we will see more economic lockdowns do you think this market can be derailed when weve seen the jump weve seen this week . Yeah, totally you absolutely look, if you are in equity in an asset class your baseline expectation should be at any time for a great reason or for no reason at all you should expect to see ten or 20 ripped out of the stock market it can happen tomorrow, it might not happen for three years if you dont own this asset class with that mentality, you will be prone to the type of con artists who tell you its possible to buy and sell every day and sidestep that kind of volatility you obviously cant do that and the reason is that nobody can do that because that would require you to predict the mindset each day of 300 million investors around the world pushing and pulling levers of course thats magic if you know that thats not potting, the second best thing is to steal yourself, your resolve, and own an appropriate amount of equities given your risk tolerance and what your actual needs are so if we get a bad sevenday stretch of infections and we start seeing, you know, thousands and thousands of cases pop up in new cities like new york, which, by the way, has been pretty tame so far in the second wave, 100 , the market is going to go down you have to understand that possibility in advance, plan accordingly and allocate appropriately. Qualcomm just out with earnings, looks like a strong quarter. Lets get to jon fortt with some of the details. Its a big beat on the top and bottom and on guidance qualcomm for q4 their fiscal q4 comes in with revenue of 6. 5 billion versus 5. 94 expected also with earnings per share of a buck 45 versus a buck 17 expected listen to this guidance, guiding to revenue, the range of 7. 8 to 8. 6 billion thats 8. 2 billion at the midpoint versus just 7. 1 billion expected also on nondat eps 2. 05 versus 1. 68 expected to all of those numbers well above wall streets expectations i did get a chance moments ago to speak with qualcomms ceo about what led to these beats. He said that things were just strong across the board versus expectations and they had put out healthy guidance he said broadly it was stronger than we had guided and we were probably setting the tone out there a little bit, it was Even Stronger than we thought i asked him really any negatives out there, looking across geographies, across products he said i dont think so, when we look at it the part were proud of is if you look at the growth, revenue and margin growth year offer year delivering that in the middle of a pandemic i asked him specifically about guidance during the pandemic and you remember a couple quarters ago everybody was cautious he said that things are table li have stabilized. They are expecting 150 growth in 5g shipments in the calendar 2021 so signaling confidence there. Jon, thanks for that. More analysis coming up later on qualcomm. Any minute now we expect to hear from joe biden at the chase center in wilmington, delaware thats a live picture for you. In the last hour he added wisconsin to his Electoral College count. Nbc news reporting that biden is the apparent winner in that state which means the results are close enough that the outcome may depend on a potential recount. This brings his total Electoral College votes to 237, President Trump is on 214. But there are still seven uncalled races in several key battleground states, one of which is michigan where biden has a narrow lead and thats where we find our Brian Sullivan who is live in grand rapids with a rare look at how absentee ballots are being counted as we speak, brian thats exactly right, which will the couple hundred thousand that may finally decide the michigan race were getting a look inside the grand rapids absentee balloting Ballot Center theres a lot of conversation about how this is going out there. This is brand rapids not detroit. Here is how the process works. All those empty tables they were filled with ballots over the last 24 hours and filled with volunteers you can see theyre clearing out their inventory. They carry out those ballots and they put them in a tabulating machine over here, so they count the votes basically. Some of the votes may not be complete or they might have a mistake. So what happens . Okay we cant get too close by law and the audience to wilmington, delaware, where Vice President joe biden is speaking. Lets listen in. Let me begin by thanking the press for being here and thanking everyone else my fellow americans, yesterday once again proved that democracy is the heartbeat of this nation. Just as it has been the heartbeat of this nation for two centuries and even in the face of pandemic more americans voted this election than ever before in american history. Over 150 Million People cast their votes. I think thats just extraordinary. And if we had any doubts we shouldnt have any any longer about a government of, by and for the people its very much alive, very much alive in america here the people rule power cant be taken or asserted it flows from the people and it is their will that determines who will be the president of the United States and their will alone. And now after a long night of counting its clear that were winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency im not sure to declare that weve won, but i am here to report when the count is finished we believe we will be the winners. With all the votes counted we have won wisconsin by 20,000 votes, virtually the same margin that President Trump won that state four years ago in michigan we lead by over 35,000 votes and its growing. A substantially bigger margin than President Trump won michigan in 2016 michigan will complete its vote soon, maybe as early as today, and i feel very good about pennsylvania virtually all the remaining ballots to be counted were cast by mail and weve been winning 78 of the votes by mail in pennsylvania we flipped arizona and the Second District of nebraska. Of special significance to me is that weve won with the majority of the American People and every indication is that the majority will grow. We have a popular vote lead of nearly 3 million votes and every indication is that will grow as well indeed senator harris and i are on track to win more votes than any ticket in the history of this country that ever won the presidency and vice presidency over 70 million votes. Im very proud of our campaign only three president ial campaigns in the past have defeated an incumbent president. When its finished, god willing, we will be the fourth. This is a major achievement. This is a major achievement. Its been a long and difficult campaign, but its been a more difficult time for our country, a hard time. Weve had a Hard Campaign before, we faced hard times before so once this election is finalized and behind us it will be time for us to do what weve always done as americans, to put the harsh rhetoric of the campaign behind us, to lower the temperature, to see each other again, to listen to one another, to hear each other again and respect and care for one another. To unite, to heal, to come together as a nation i know this wont be easy. Im not naive. Neither of us r i know how deep and hard the opposing views are in our country on so many things, but i also know this as well, to make progress we have to stop treating our opponents as enemies we are not enemies what brings us together as americans is so much stronger than anything that can tear us apart. So let me be clear i, we are campaigning as democrats, but i will govern as an american president. The presidency itself is not a partisan institution its the one office in this nation that represents everyone and it demands a duty of care for all americans. That is precisely what i will do i will work as hard for those who didnt vote for me as i will for those who did vote for me. Now every vote must be counted no one is going to take our democracy away from us, not now, not ever america has come too far america has fought too many battles. America has endured too much to ever let that happen we the people will not be silenced we the people will not be bullied. We the people will not surrender. My friends, im confident we will emerge victorious, but this will not be my victory alone or our victory alone, it will be a victory for the American People, for our democracy, for america there will be no blue states and red states when we win, just the United States of america god bless you all and may god protect our troops former Vice President biden speaking at the chase center in wilmington, delaware, saying democracy is the heartbeat of the nation even in the face of the pandemic he she lighted more americans have voted than ever before, highlighting that here in america the people rule did he say its clear were winning, not declaring victory, however, but said that when all votes are counted we expect to be winners though highlighting towards the end there that every vote must be counted lets get more reaction from our diana olick who has been at biden hq throughout the last couple of days diana, what did you make of it reporter well, its so interesting how the campaign from very early on this morning went from patience, then to defines, then to action and now to unity that action we saw earlier in a twitter post when they called for a fight fund to fight to win this election, that is, to pay for the lawyers that is expected down the road, but this speech really called into account the unity that biden has really focused on throughout most of his campaign he used the words reexpect, care, unite, heal but he also said we will not be bullied and we will not surrender. Those are fighting words, again t seems right now that he did not want to declare victory, he wasnt going to do what President Trump did late last night, early this morning, instead he is still waiting patiently but, again, using those fighting words and of course the fight fund that he mentioned earlier in his tweet today. So, again, unity and patience. Back to you. Diana, i dont think he mentioned President Trump by name at all in that speech he said we will not have our democracy taken from us. Any sense from the Biden Campaign that youve been this contact with how they are going to react to some of these legal challenges and potential vote recounts reporter well, thats what the fight fund is all b its paying for that and we know from the campaign that he did not speak with the Trump Campaign at all since the election and so we know that hes getting ready to fight this but hes also using words that imply President Trump who has been called a bully before, saying we will not be bullied. Thats a clear stab at the president by doing that. So, you know, inside the campaign theyre being more optimistic but theyre also, again, being more defiant than they were early in morning when they were talking patience, that was the word when his first speech when he came out and hes also you know, early this morning he came out without his running mate, kamala harris, today it was a united front, defiance, all of them up there together yeah, he definitely sounded confident, its clear were winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes. Diana olick, thank you, at biden headquarters to wilmington. Stocks closed sharply higher today, the best threeday rally since april, this despite an uncertain election outcome lets bring in kyle bass definitely a lot to get to with you including china. First on the Market Reaction today, we saw stocks sharply higher, bonds rallied as well. Are you a buyer on how the Election Results are moving . Yeah, i think the goldilocks scenario is what the market is pricing in i think a biden win and a senate retaining control or the republicans retaining control of the senate is the best possible scenario for stocks. Were going to see between 1 and 2 trillion of stimulus, a big infrastructure bill and were going to see taxes stay more ground its the best possible scenario. I think thats where the market was today and eventually thats what we think is going to happen i get the whole gridlock is good for the markets and weve seen that before and how its good when it comes to biden not being able to pass higher corporate or wealth taxes, but at a time when we are in this pandemic and when so many people are suffering and when we need a big stimulus to help our economy, is it the same calcu s calculus look, Bidens Energy and Climate Policy and his plan Going Forward, you know, on infrastructure has a 2 trillion number in front of it. What mcconnell and the senate will let go get through is somewhere maybe between that 1 and 2 trillion were going to see a significant stimulus package, whether its biden or trump running the country, but under a biden win Republican Senate i think you will see a pretty substantial stimulus package go through and, you know, look, i dont think the u. S. If you look around the world the two most heavily indebted nations in the world have the two highest Corporate Tax rates. If we want to stay competitive with the rest of the world that isnt the right formula. What do you think the outlook is for u. S. china relations if as former Vice President biden just predicted he does win the presidency sure. So i have a hope and then i have a think. My hope is that president a President Biden would continue protecting u. S. National security the way that the full Trump Administration did thats my hope you know, the reality the marketplace of Global Investors if you just watch the way the chinese currency traded on the swings in the election last night, the world and china happens to think biden is going to be easier on china than trump. I hope thats not true if you look to one of bidens chief policy advisers, Foreign Policy advisers, Jake Sullivan, he said publicly that the Biden Administration wont trade human rights abuses for a trade deal lets hope Jake Sullivan particulars to his word. I want to ask you, carl, about the end group ipo which was pulled this week i guess two parts to that. What do you make of it and then the way that the ipo was pulled, and what does it tell you about valuations of chinese stocks and a lets more broadly do you think there are concerns there . We also had luck and coffee, some issues around that earlier this year. Yeah, i mean, its a great question multipart question that you asked and i think its important to note that what happened with ant group has everything to do with chinas plan for Digital Currency Going Forward and jack mas comments that he made at the end of october regarding the chinese Banking System those two things are fundamentally important to understand when youre looking at this ipo or this now failed ipo and probably the money is going to be sent back most likely you know, jack mao said that th maings are basically looking for collateral and in the same breath he said that they make banks like homes for the elderly. When you think about the way the cbrc in china regulates the Banking System and the way the pboc looks at these things you cant have an unregulated micro lending platform with no capital touching half of the unbank dr osh half of the Bank Population in china ant financial has 730 million users. If china is going to roll out a Digital Currency the question is does the pboc want to control its Digital Currency or do they want to let ant Group Control the keys to the kingdom . My view is that this became something lets say a question of the highest power and i think xi decided to execute his power at this most embarrassing time for jack mao. I just want to go back to the u. S. china relationship which, kyle, because you said that the expectation we saw this in the chinese currency as you mentioned, the expectation is that biden would be what did you say softer, i guess, on china or not as confrontational perhaps on china i think the way that he said it is that he would work with our allies more to confront china so just a different style i wonder if that could be more effective because after all the confrontation the trade war with china im not sure how much President Trump has to show for it in terms of our trade deficit or tariffs. I would say our National Security visavis the risks to china have been greatly improved over the last four years and i think thats vitally important if you are running our country as far as trade and commission if thats all youre focused on you will get rope a doped by the Chinese Communist party. I think its important to focus on the larger issues of the different wars that china that were engaged in with china. Were engaged today in an economic war, were engaged today in a Data Information war and were also engaged in a cyber war. The one war we are not engaged in with them is a kinetic war and i hope it never goes there, but the Biden Administration if he is to become president lets hope that it doesnt look like the Bush Administration or the Obama Administration im not pointing fingers at any one party im just saying that this administration is the First Administration to actually confront china and to stand up and think about the risks that we have to our National Security and not not allow wall street to simply write the rules for how we engage with china because i think thats our biggest ris snook carl, pivoting back to the u. S. Markets to round things off, you mentioned potentially the goldilocks scenario for markets playing out from the Election Results still to be confirmed of course, but markets already up 5. 3 just this week, thats the s p 500 return. What if even if we get that goldilocks scenario what if we see cases continue to spike and even the potential for more semilockdowns, would that derail the markets here in the u. S. You know, i actually think that if you look at the Scientific Data my partner at hay man is a scientist, the actual antibody data thats being driven in the astrazeneca study is showing four times the antibodies produced with their vaccine as opposed to someone that catches the virus and then gets better. So i think youre going to see a very effective vaccine mass produced and announced in the next 30 to 60 days i still think per were going to see the regular flu season spike in this virus, but, any way, i think we will play right through it. Kyle bass, thank you for joining us weve got to cut it short because we are getting some breaking news here on the election nbc news now projecting michigan will go to joe biden that is a brandnew projection here from nba news 49. 8 of the vote to 48. 6 for President Trump and that is a difference of 61,237 votes are 97 of the vote in that is more 16 more electoral votes for joe biden. He is officially the projected winner of michigan which, wilfred, takes his electoral vote count even higher with the additional 16 votes and he continues to go through this blue wall that President Trump won back in 2016, those states that were so important to him, like michigan and now wisconsin. Theres the vote talley, 253 electoral votes for Vice President biden, 214 for President Trump making the trump path a bit tougher still waiting on critical votes from in evidence darks not expected to get that until tomorrow, but theres the map as we see it right now to the all important 270 votes. Remember, Vice President biden just coming out a few moments ago sounding confident, more so than what we heard from him last time saying it is clear we are on the path to 270 electoral votes, saying he does expect to win not declaring himself a winner yet, saying all the votes need to be counted as President Trumps team works on legal strategies, filing a lawsuit, for instance, with michigan to get more access to the voting there, potentially filing a lawsuit, talking about filing a lawsuit in pennsylvania and also potentially demanding a recount in wisconsin but theres the news, a projected win for joe biden in michigan a huge 16 Electoral College votes overturned of course from the result in 2016 adds to the apparent win as declared by nbc news in wisconsin. Also overturning the 2016 result about an hour or so ago. You can see that those gray states that remain of course were still waiting for arizona, for nevada, as you mentioned, and many other Brian Sullivan is able to join us now, in fact, brian, on the ground there what can you tell us 16 Electoral College votes as declared just now . Reporter this is quite a remarkable moment, here we are in grand rapids where theyre counting some of the votes that went to the count that nbc just called and, guys, it is a moment here listen, there are people in this building that are counting votes, these are volunteers, who are on both sides. Im sure there are people here who would like to erupt in applause others will be disappointed guess what, not appropriate, theyre doing their jobs the way it is. Nbc news calling michigan for joe biden, 177,000 vote difference so the number of votes that are in this facility and the ones like this in detroit obviously they feel are not enough to make up that gap it has been a heck of a 24 hours, there is a lawsuit, by the way, Trump Administration moments ago filing that motion to try to stop the counting that is going on like this behind us. Nbc news calling it for joe biden, guys. We know what that means. When you look at that electoral map that you just talked b not making any predictions, but if nevada and arizona go for biden, ironically, all the money and all the attention on pennsylvania is not necessary. You can take the pennsylvania avenue address without actually taking pennsylvania. Either way, guys, the vote counting thats going on here will continue all night, even though its been called, every vote will indeed be counted. Nbc news calling it and counting it joe biden, Vice President , winning michigan, 253 Electoral College votes margin right now 177,000 votes. Donald trump won the state, guys, four years ago by just under 11,000 votes so biden was able to flip it back to blue the flipping is so interesting, brian of michigan and wisconsin and some of these other blue states and youve been on the ground there for a while. I wonder how much coronavirus factored in here because these are also states that got hit and continue to get hit very hard with rising cases and hospitalizations reporter we know that answer to that actually it was always second it was never first you are from ohio you know theres some tough folk around its an issue, they worry about t cases are spiking as well but it was never number one in our states of place surveys, it was number two behind jobs and the economy. Grand rapids has a couple billionaire ben factors, not the case for a lot of michigan jobs in michigan, manufacturing jobs, remember think about the base guys that won obama the state by 450,000 in 2012 it is blue collar, Union Laborers who vote blue because they are union now, a lot of those were swayed by Donald Trumps message four years ago, Manufacturing America first. Bring jobs back. Whatever it may be slamming companies for offshoring jobs. That message resonated loud and clear four years ago it resonated with a lot of people this year its still a narrow margin of loss for trump, but the sway, guys, was the female voter four years ago 53 of michigan females voted for hillary clinton, 61 of michigan females voted for joe biden. If you want to say what group propelled biden over the finish line it was likely that suburban female voter that weve been talking so much of an 8 gain in that demographic for joe biden delivering him michigan and inching him closer to the white house, guys. Absolutely. Brian sullivan, thank you very much in grand rapids with an up close look at some of the ballot counting going on there after nbc projects joe biden winning michigan coming up, banking on stimulus, up next we will discuss how election uncertainty is impacting the outlook for more economic stimulus and the effect that will have on the financial industry we will be joined by Atlas Merchant Capital c beoob diamond, the former ceo of barclays one day well look back and remember the moment that things, for one strange time in our lives, got very quiet. We worried over loved ones, over money, over our planet, and over takeout. Lets remember this time when so many struggled to feel secure, and build a future where everyone can. Because when the world seems like its standing still. Thats the perfect time for us to change it. For as little as 5, now anyone can own companies in the s p 500, even if their shares cost more. At 5 a slice, you could own Ten Companies for 50 instead of paying thousands. All Commission Free online. Schwab stock slices an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. Schwab. Own your tomorrow. Financials sitting out the postelection rally coming in as one of the worst sector losers today. Lets bring in bob diamond ceo of Atlas Merchant Capital and former ceo of barclays good afternoon to you, thanks so much for joining us. That chart didnt do it justice, the banks index was down 5 today. I guess partly on expectation that stimulus might be pushed back and with that of course yields declined. Does that make sense to you for banks to decline so much today did they really need some stimulus well, i think if you start with a Financial Markets they really like this result, as weve seen with the stock market up i think before this the best scenario for risk assets was a biden presidency and a gop senate so were seeing that today and i think that will continue so i think from the trading point of view for banks that have Trading Operations and Asset Management operations i think thats probably good news but i think the struggle for banks and the equity markets today and the reason most of the big banks are down kind of 30 to 40 since the pandemic is really about the model for the large deposit taking institutions in the u. S. The top five or six banks have i think over 50 of the deposits in this country and with Interest Rates at zero and the likelihood that they are going to be zero far out two, three, four years thats a very, very challenging business with zero Interest Rates. On the lending side i think the lack of stimulus if anything is going to put increased pressure on provisioning. So on balance i think what the stock market is saying about the larger banks is really where are the earnings going to be coming from in this environment particularly with less certainty around stimulus. On the other hand, some of the bank models who are less dependent on deposits and less dependent on loans i think if Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and their strong Third Quarter earnings generated a lot more from the Trading Operations, Investment Banking operations, Asset Management operations, the Wealth Management platform and much less about taking deposits and making loans i think that it augers better for the equity of those banks, i think. With these depressed share prices for the bingeing index in the u. S. As you already mentioned are you surprised with he havent seen more consolidation . I think we have been seeing some consolidation and i think to your point, you know, this is probably the right kind of environment because youre going to see a number of institutions really struggle for earnings i think thats a fair conclusion what about if the Federal Reserve embarks on more stimulus one of the narratives today, bob, was that if we get less fiscal stimulus we could potentially get more monetary stimulus jay powell is up next, hes hinted that hes got more a. M. Know what would that do to the bank stocks i think youre spot op, sara, and im hesitant to give my opinion just before jay powell comes on but, listen, theyre meeting tomorrow, were going to hear from them tomorrow afternoon, i think if theres a delay or smaller size to fiscal stimulus, which we are all expecting based on the Election Results then i think, you know, what the fed will be saying tomorrow is they are there and so the breadth, the size, the willingness to be there and do anything thats necessary from a Monetary Policy point of view i think i feel very confident thats what the message from the fed will be. With that in mind and going back to one of your earlier comments do you think we are now set for a sort of lost decade of profitability for the u. S. Banking sector, kind of similar to what weve seen in europe over the last decade or could inflation surprise on the upside and in a couple years could we be looking at a steeper and higher yield curve so we take a very different view of that i think if youre looking at the Traditional National Large National banks in the u. S. And also in europe, theyre very, very well capitalized so theyre safe for sure. Theyre getting closer and closer to the governments and more and more utility like what excites us at Atlas Merchant Capital is Financial Services is a very broad sector, its the second largest sector of the economy after real estate and the impact that financial that, excuse me, technology is having in areas such as payments and the impact that more National Models in Investment Banking, for example, or broker dealers are having are really very exciting for us there is a lot of opportunity outside just the large traditional banks, but i think for the again, for the larger National Banks who are relying on deposits and loans i think theyre going to really struggle for profitability. And the impact of that is very much its not on solvency because i think the banks have very high levels of capital, its really in return on equity, where are they going to get the revenues from to get a return on equity and therefore a negative impact on the price to book value and a negative impact on the equity prices. The dynamic that youre talking b bob, has really played out in the market in a big way today and over the last few months where names like paypal and square have surged on days where the Bank Stocks Sell off jim cramer was talking about how its sort of the reverse trade, you see a lot of options call buying on days where the big banks go down and names like paypal and square. Question is are those stocks overvalued are they pricing in too much in the way of growth . Or do you stick with that kind of reverse trade i mean, its very different for very different platforms, of course, but on balance we dont believe were investors in Financial Technology, both within the Portfolio Companies that we have in our portfolio as well as directly and frankly we think its still early innings for Financial Technology and the impact, for example, of many of the organizations youre talking about and pay safe and others in the payments area. So we think its early innings bob dee monday, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you time for a cnbc news skrup state with sue herrera. Hello, will here is whats happening at this hour a state judge . Pennsylvania has rejected a legal complaint brought by republicans that they arent being given enough good view to see the opening and sorting of uncounted ballots, like these being stored in a pittsburgh warehouse. The judge did suggest Election Officials might allow observers to get closer if it can be done consistently with covid rules. The Postal Service is pushing back on reports 300,000 ballots are unaccounted for because they were scanned into the usps system, but they dont have an exit scan. A Spokesman Says to save time exit scans were not done and all of those ballots were delivered by election deadlines. And in denmark the Worlds Largest producer of mink skins is killing all of the 15 million to 17 million mink on danish farms after a mutation of the covid19 virus found in those animals was able to spread to humans previous attempts with smaller exterminations did not work to contain the covid outbreak you are up to date, thats the news update. Share ration i will send it back to you god, all right, suh, thanks. Still ahead, as more states get called this afternoon we will look at whether legal challenges could result in the Supreme Court settling the president ial election. What are the chances of that we will be right back. Ourselves. Lets get checked for those around us. Lets get checked for a full range of conditions. Introducing letsgetchecked a Health Testing you do at home. Lets get round the clock support from a team of nurses. Lets get fast, accurate results. Know your health. Know yourself. Order now at letsgetchecked dot com before money, people tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. Then currency came along. They made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. Soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. Thats why its time for Digital Currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. Go digital. Go grayscale. Its got all my favorite shows turn oright there. Boom, i wish my Trading Platform worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. Nbc news projecting just this hour that joe biden is the winner in michigan, handing him 16 more electoral votes. Here is where we stand on the electoral map, former Vice President biden with 253 electoral votes, President Trump with 214 we still dont know results from pennsylvania, georgia, nevada, North Carolina, arizona and alaska the Trump Campaign is saying it has filed lawsuits in michigan and pennsylvania to halt the counting of ballots as the campaign demands increased access to watch the tallying process at some locations in those battleground states. But a state judge in pennsylvania has rejected the complaint and suggested Election Officials might allow observers to get closer if it can be done consistently with covid rules. Jing us to talk about some of the legal implications of all of this francis can a coleman from the university of Wisconsin Law School School to have you on professor coleman, we need a constitutional lawyer today to explain what comes next and what resource does the Trump Campaign have in demanding that these ballots stop getting counted in michigan and pennsylvania . Thank you thank you for having me. I dont think he has a lot of recourse in michigan stopping ballot counting is kind of an extraordinary remedy its normally one you would expect to protect the rights of individuals to vote, its not the kind of remedy you get as a Political Party to protect your right to observe more closely than youve been allowed we dont quite know the facts underlying this complaint as far as where are they being denied access, you know, how far are they denied access completely or are they just further away than they want to be . And so i think this may be posturing more than a legitimate claim that has legal validity. Sorry, professor, that was in which state were you referring to there michigan. And what about in wisconsin, then so wisconsin i think in wisconsin and similar states i think youre going to see some tactics, its hard to know how effective they will be i think the first tactic youre going to see a recount, taking advantage of the state recount provisions under state law i think another tactic youre going to see is bringing a constitutional claim youre likely to see two types of claims, one type of claim is going to be an article ii claim which is state legislatures are supposed to decide the conditions under which the president is elected and so any state that has had a process that was adjusted by a federal judge, adjusted by a state judge, adjusted by the elected official, then the kind of electoral proceedings and regulations in that state can be challenged another claim i think you will see is just a 14th amendment claim that some peoples right to vote was not treated equally as other peoples right to vote, that there was a burden on the right to voters, some denial of due process. And i think that theres a third trend that you might see and i think maybe President Trump and the Trump Campaign are hoping for, which is, you know, popular constitutionalism, right, that people themselves are going to go out in the street and kind of demand, you know, some kind of changes due to their perception that the counting process or the balloting process was illegitimate. So President Trump has called some of this a fraud he invoked the Supreme Court saying well take it to the Supreme Court. How would that work . Is that a likely scenario here of them getting involved we know he has filled it with conservativeleaning judges. Right i think there is a slim chance i think if pennsylvania ends up being still in play, then i think there was a case that the Supreme Court tied 44 on about ballot receipt in pennsylvania and basically a state court judge added three days or so and said, you know, ballots that are postmarked by election day can arrive up to three days after election day ballots received three days later would be count there was a judge that thought it was a valid claim a judge that did not our newest judge did not participate. If that case gets back to the Supreme Court, we may have a justice deciding the election. If those ballots end up being crucial to the election in pennsylvania there are other things in pennsylvania going on. I think a county in pennsylvania allowed voters to secure their ballots after they had been cast in a process that was called into question. There were a few of those ballots. I dont think they would be outcome determinative. But those are two claims the Trump Campaign has raised. Fascinating thank you for joining us the fed is said he will announce his decision tomorrow. We will see how imrtt atpoanth is as we wait for the president ial election to be finalized. We will be back in a minute. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Expedia earnings are out the big picture here is that travel is down expedia reporting a loss of 22 cents. That was better than expected. It continues to be an encouraging trend in travel. Also rivalry between expedia, booking and air b and b. Expedia is higher after hours. Just down. 3 of a percent. Up next we will discuss how the fed and the fight for the white house could impact the market tomorrow. At calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. If youre concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes . If you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities . For nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in Companies Making a difference because we see value in doing good. Talk to your Financial Advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. Tathat selling carsarvana,isor 100 online wouldnt work. Ibly but we went to work. Building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. Creating a coast to Coast Network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. Recruiting an army of customer advocates to make your experience incredible. And putting you in control of the whole thing with powerful technology. Thats why weve become the nations Fastest Growing retailer. Because our customers love it. See for yourself, at carvana. Com. Another look where things stand right now on the electoral map. Joe biden has 253 electoral votes at the moment, picking up michigan President Trump has 214. We are still waiting calls from arizona, nevada, pennsylvania, North Carolina and georgia key pickups. And we are awaiting a fed decision set to come down tomorrow at 2 00 p. M investors will be looking for Jerome Powells report and if he says anything about stimulus and friday is shaping up to be an epic week here is my final thought as it pertains to the market and as we wait for states. Even if joe biden gets to 270, it is not a resounding rejection of President Trump and democrats not a resounding rejection either the house got slimmer. And Neither Party comes in with a huge mandate for major policy changes. Claimed a huge mandate even though it may not have been in the numbers. It may mean it is fine for the market unless it comes to a moment where it feels like they need a huge initiative if j. Powell says all we can do is lend money. If the market is in acute need, maybe thats when this arrangement doesnt sit as well with investors there were some losers banks were down about 5 fast money starts right now. Im melissa lee and this is fast money. Tonight on fast, the postelection pop. Results rolling. What drove todays big rally and find out if we are headed for more gains plus we are tracking after hours action soaring on results. We have reaction to the quarter lat later. And we are talking cars and casinos. But th