Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240712

Well, my view is that were coming into this election and were expecting uncertainty. Youre seeing Institutional Investors hedge against a longer period of volatility following this election. Theres clearly an expectation that perhaps tomorrow night we will not have a decision on who is going to be the president of the United States. With that being said, i think, you know, if you look at positioning into the next six to eight weeks, i think its going to be consistent with what were expecting for next year, which is an improvement in economic growth, perhaps an end or an improvement to the covid19 situation and likely stimulus from either the republicans or the democrats. It will look different depending on whos sitting in the white house and if we get a Democratic Senate but for the most part i think that investors are anticipating some stimulus coming out of this the next two to three weeks could be very choppy if we tonight hadon have that decision but i think investors are institutionally hedged for volatility. All of the rest of us are looking for opportunity to position ourselves for next year, which is what our investors listening today should be thinking about in the back of their mind steve weis, whats the best Case Scenario for the stock market . Well, it depends on your time frame. To me the best Case Scenario Going Forward is the democrats win the senate, not overwhelming live but having a simple majority in the senate, biden in the white house. At that point i think you get a dramatic increase in fiscal stimulus in addition to the stimulus that were getting from the fed. And thats panacea to me for the markets. Yes, you would get a tax increase i dont know thats going to be the priority that will be down the road, but weve seen before that markets can handle tax increases and that they will continue to go up but the key thing in my mind is youll also get confidence that youre going to be ending covid climbing cases were getting to 100,000 cases we see what happened in the u. K. , in germany, in france. Were not going to lock down like they are, but it doesnt mean that businesses arent going to close, doesnt mean that more jobs arent going to be lost and thats going to impair the economy that is one heck of a statement, steve, that not that long ago would be looked at as being blasphemous, saying the best Case Scenario for the stock market would be tax increases, more regulation, says a change in Energy Policy and a whole bunch of other things we really dont know about, a blue wave. There have been times in the past where people have come on this network and said, im thinking even back to the midterms, that a blue wave would be terrible for the stock market you really think the stock markets going to be okay with the scenario which you laid out . Well, i what i laid out, which was a simple majority and ive been consistent with that for a few months now and others have come along to that, including goldman and some other notable investors. Yes, i think it will be the best you look at what starts to happens to the economy, the economy was atrophying for a while before covid came along. We hadnt seen ceos open up for capex we you a buybacks. You need stability in terms of your trade and economic policies for ceos to be willing to spend in their business. So im not saying that regulations are good theyre not. I dont foresee major increase in regulations i think that part of what trump did was very good. I think he went too far in terms of the environment, though that will potentially have a very devastating effect on corporations in europe, for example, theyre already starting to make them include what the damage to the economy is on their annual reports in terms of what will it mean to your company so its real on balance there is no perfect candidate, there never is. I think having consistent policies and having a pro spending policy on stimulus will be positive. 500 billion not enough too many people are hurt and out of work. People earning 400,000 can handle tax increase. I know i can. Every single viewer question on any network is thinking about. What is the best Case Scenario for my money what outcome would create the greatest returns in my portfolio over the next handful of years you heard what weiss had to say. Whats your answer clarity clarity that allows the Monetary Policy from Federal Reserve chairman jay powell to illuminate, clarity that allows fiscal stimulus to be enacted further, which is what this economy needs. I believe mark twain said history doesnt repeat itself but it often rhymes a lot. If you think about where we are right now, we are in the same place that we were in in 2016 for the Capital Markets, where the absence of clarity in 2016 saw the s p 500 peak on august 15th, its declined into friday, november 4th guess what happened one day before the election in 2016. On monday, november 7th, the s p 500 rallied 46 handles the dow jones was up 371 points. Sound familiar to what were experiencing 2020 its indicative of an environment where investors just want clarity i think thats all this is about. Whoever it is that sits in the oval office, whatever the formation of the senate might be, we will need clarity to allow whats really mattering most to the Capital Markets to illuminate i get it its a good point. Has a little bit of poetry to it you mentioned mark twain brenda, i turn to you and maybe the most important thing that joe just said or at least the most important word he used was the fed. And maybe it doesnt matter who wins and youve seen some notes come out from wall street that says had doesnt matter who the next president is going to be because of the unprecedented environment were currently in youre going to get stimulus no matter what and the fed is in the game for a long time so forget whos in the residence in 1600 pennsylvania avenue, as long as jay powells in the game, thats all that matters. I think theres some truth to that and i think that clarity, i would agree with joe, clarity is what this market needs because we think about the back trap that were in today we have an improving global economy. We just got manufacturing numbers today that were quite impressive, almost 60. We also have corporate earnings trending in the right direction. We know things are depressed but so far weve had over 85 of companies been exceeding expectations thats in our view the most porng thi important thing to watch, what is the trajectory of corporate earnings we do have a system of checks and balances in our view that will continue to play out over the next four year, just as it has over the previous four years. If we think about even how many people are feeling ahead of the 2016 election, there was a lot of concern then about how much the world was going to change and here we are four years later obviously theres been some other things that have happened here with the pandemic, but outside of that, things do carry on and our view would be that this economy is likely to continue to recover and corporate earnings are likely to continue as well but we do need stimulus and help from the Federal Reserve joe lets go through some of the notes now. Im looking at jpmorgans comments the equity bull market should resume post u. S. Lebs. We continue to see and i had to ask our team if this was a mistake we continue to see around 50 up side over the medium to longer term. Jpmorgan goes on to say we believe the riskreward is turning better we dont think that the politics will end up to be as negative for the u. S. Equities as many fear what do you have make of these comments and then well get on to the next note i like those comments, 50 . Thats a little bit aggressive just a little bit with all those comments, please understand well, yeah. Please understand, scott, how incredibly important it is going to be that Mega Cap Technology continues to perform and ive read so many notes this morning suggesting that Mega Cap Technology, its time to pair back the weightings to equal weight youre not going to get your 50 higher if Mega Cap Technology is only going to perform at an equal wait steve weiss, 50 up side over the medium to longer term. Make sense why not i mean, weve seen market just in the past five years, six years where youve seen 37 in a year so it could happen because you have such major fed action going. Youve had trillions of dollars to the country youve added basically 25 of gdp to the markets, right . Because theyre pushing you to risk assets. So it could happen but short term to intermediatia terms. The president is like baseball managers its only on the margins that they do things if you go with brendas thought process, it doesnt matter where they come from, theyre recovered. I still marvel at some stocks trading above their alltime highs despite having earnings down 20 wheres that lost year wheres that guarantee that all their customers, not just the wealthy, will have money to buy their products that seems to be a little ludicrous. Im also thinking about to this 50 call, youre going to have the fed and then youre going to have pentup demand were going to hopefully have a vaccine sometime in 21. Im just thinking about the level of pentup demand you could have and the explosion of Economic Activity at the same time you have this unprecedented level of fed engagement and the potential of a massive stimulus plan underpinning that as well maybe 50 is not far fetched at all. Maybe its conservative. I dont know if i would say its conservative i think there are still some underlining concerns here. I dont want to rein ain on thi party. If you think about it in terms of if the point about the economy looking different than it was in 2016, it absolutely looks different than four years ago. We have greater income inequality we have seen a disproportionate impact on working class americans through this pandemic. We have no legitimate safety net right now. If we look at next year, a lot of things would have to go right in order for to us achieve these gains in the equity market i think a manufacturing rebound, which would be helped by the fact that perhaps we dont have the true overhang from u. S. china tensions we experienced in 2018 and 2019, that would certainly help to lead the way perhaps its this manufacturing recovery that we saw in the ism today that could give us a little hope as we endure some spottier Consumer Spending over the course of the next four to five months. I think the narrative about the vaccine is binary and not impactful from an extension standpoint i think about therapeutics and ability to con taken the spread in a more economic and responsible, sensitive way perhaps we could get that up side a lot of things have to go right. The flip side is i dont think it goes as wrong as it did earlier this year. I think asymmetric risk is to the up side here but i think there are some things that have to go right in the first 2020 to get those numbers. You mean 2021 i get your point yes lets go to josh who has breaking news on apple we just got an invitation from apple for their next big event here it says one more thing, please join us for a special apple event from apple park. Watch it on at apple. Com november 10th, scott, 10 a. M. Pacific. Now, we dont know what exactly is coming here but certainly one possibility would be those new macs remember at apples Big Development conference over the summer, they did say those would be coming by the end of the year these would be the macs with apples own custom chip rather than intel on the last Earnings Report, the m mac was a bright spot. I think tim cooks comments were some of the most interesting on that call when he said he believed we entered a new era and new normal in term of people working, learning and playing from home, he thought that was going to be a tail wind for mac and ipad lines wedo have the next apple event here november 10th, 10 a. M. Pacific. Rather that enough iphone 12 mini, preorders this friday. Back to you. All of these big events coming at a time where its still cloudy out there, josh lipton one of the things that jobs steve jobs tim cook, who you spoke to last week mentioned still how the environment is so difficult to make forecasts on as they talk about holding back their guidance as a result of it, yet they have all of these events, the 5g phone, the event youve just told us about and other things that are close down the street yeah, its interesting. When it came to q on guidance, there were a lot of people who thought that was big bogey they were looking for they wanted to see that guidance for that allimportant holiday period i think what tim coke and the cfo might have been thinking was they went into that print with limited data points, just 14 days of preorders and sellin. Usually they would have Something Like 35 days of data they must have just felt like, listen, at that point they just didnt have enough clarity to give you a hard q1 forecast. When i spoke to tim cook, he said the pandemic cases are moving higher here and in europe, but they are willing to come out with in products to tell you what they have in their pipeline here. It will be interesting if it is the new mac. The mac and ipad performed strongly they were up 30 and he thinks there are big tail winds in tact to keep driving those products higher i appreciate that jim terranova. Tim cook hinted at this, that you would get mac books and the air pod studio as well so more products are coming. In the wake of the Earnings Report on thursday, there were who suggested you need to look at apple in terms of this one quarter and if you look at it in terms of one quarter with the 29 decline in china, theres disappointment i think 2021 is a year where its going to be about multiple quarter, which is unique to what apple has experienced in previous years its generally one quarter where you get robust growth, but this is going to be spread out over time and lastly, goldman sacks, i just dont get it. Continued sell rati celebrating im also thinking, steve weiss, whereas this year we spent a lot of time talking about the continued growth in the Services Business knowing 5 thereto g was around the corner and the iphone had obviously had a slowing growth trajectory over the last several years, 2021 were going to get back to talking a lot about what the iphone can do for apple because of 5g as the networks get more up on it apple is going to have to sell a lot of 5g phones the market will be keenly focused on that where maybe in the past year or so its been focused on other areas of of bo growth i agree with that i thisnk thats the perfect analysis 5g, a lot people call it another industrial revolution, of which there is only been two or three. But you have the idea theres really something new to buy in apple phone. Its another another lens on the camera its really an important innovation i think personally its going to be one of their biggest product launches in history. And its also driven by covid. Staying at home, working anywhere, you need greater reliability. A lot of it is going to depend on the rolling out of networks by verizon others but theres enough there where you want to buy it i didnt buy an 11, ive still to the the 10 but im going to step up and by the 5g phone. Brenda, on such a nice day for stocks, the day before election day that apple is lower, not necessarily on this news because i think it was down before job lipton popped on with his date was whats going on with apple i want to move to mike wilson of morgan stanley, who had been locking for a correction he says now is the time to start a, he calls the correction right on schedule, we recommend buying stocks likely to have the greatest positive revision to 2021 earning estimates hes underweight three groups, maybe youre not surprised hes underweight utilities and maybe not surprised hes underweight staples, he underweight technology what do you think of that . Yeah, i think its interesting. We would not recommend being underway technology, but we have been reducing our exposure to technology with the same thought tr process in mind. If you look back where it has outperformed for more than a week and its been a long while since its happened, its when those earnings are very depressed and can grow earnings a the a faster pace than many traditional Growth Companies and that has been the time when we have seen value up from growth so woo would be in favor of adding some exposure here. Weve been adding in a very small way, waiting for further connell firmati confo confirmation here. You need, shannon, to have Interest Rates continue to rise in some respects for a lot of these areas that mike wilson thinks are going to work to continue to move higher. He says evidence is starting to mount our call for much higher rates is going to be right we think tenyear yields are about to rise significantly and a 100 basispoint move cannot be ruled out. In fact, we think it should be expect and no surprise, then, that he would say, okay, im overweight financials, im overweight materials and industrials, rates move up and it lifts a lot of boats with it. Yeah, were certainly seeing evidence of a bear steepening would have very little impact on the credit markets and whats happening in the economy thats typically why you worry about higher rates its a des coverage perspective for companies. Bonds are already under a lot of pressure i think youll continue to see an outcry for yield investors that if we do see that type of rate, yield curve steeenning, that could be a negative thing i do want to site you could be modestly underweight technology and still have significant exposure i would caution thats more of a tactical call and that you still could have meaningful technical exposure, even if you trip some of your exposure to value. I can see the staples and utilities if you think rates are going to rise, theres obviously youre not talking about things like utilities and staples where you would be grabbing yield in a lower yield environment. Overweight technical, overweight financials, which would be, you know, money to the ears of a lot of people who have been trying to make this call and just have been so disappointed materials and industrials, that would portend the economy would be in a. I think materials and industrials are what weve experienced over the last six to eight weeks is industrialing have been one of the leading sectors. Im notes in without first having clarity on who will be the tresh kr and will there be regulation on the Financial Services industry. And what allows for the stevening in the yield curve if you see 100 basis points move in the yield curve, i will suggest money will rotate out of the bog funds and that money will go into the value oriented sectors of the economy i dont think it comes out of technology and goes into that value oriented component tech is to important, far exc d exceeds the value of a piece of machinery, the value of a building or brick and mortar bank since you brought up the treasury second, lets say biden gets elected president , if i told you there was a better chance or not, whether you believe it or not at this point, if i told you there was a better chance than not that Elizabeth Warren wb at the top of a list of possible treasury secretaries, would you are say financials would be absolutely off the table for an Investment Decision if that were to be the case so if Elizabeth Warren was the treasury secretary, financials would find themselves having the significant headwinds that they have previously had over the prior years i dont think she would be the treasury secretary because in that circumstance, you would have a republican governor in massachusetts that would replace her with a republican. So im not sure that the administration, the democrats, want to follow through on that theres a suggestion of a biden more tore yuc biden moratorium on sitting senators joining the cabinet theres the likelihood of something look that happening. Absolutely warranted. Over to take a quick break. We have upgrade for two beaten down stocks, under armour and intel. And it your money, your vote. Do not miss our live election covegeomroonra torw cnbc. It goes all night long halftime returns in two minutes. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. [ sigh ] not gonna happen. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Ask about saving up to 1,500 on your installation. Virtual appointments now available. Welcome back im sue herera one week after she was sworn in as the Supreme Courts newest justice, Amy Coney Barrett participated today in oral arguments for the first time as the call fwbegan, chief juste roberts offered her the traditional welcome, we wish you a long career in our court the Supreme Court did not hear an nfl directtv lawsuit to dismiss a lawsuit. Znd the catch pretended the train from tumbling to the ground and the name of the sculpture really is saved by a whales tail and thats no fluke, scottie got anymore it was a whale of a ride . I dont know thank you you got it. Joel, first to you, you sold twitter. Tell me why. I sold twitter in the wake on earnings thursday afternoon, thankfully, because its down further. We talked about technical momentum that has built in the stock. Im not going to sit and wait for that momentum to move higher i sold out of first solar. That was a significant positive perform over the last six weeks for me, heading into election i wanted to take profits on that not knowing how the outcome of the election was going to be steve weiss, you sold lulu. You were probably the biggest lulu fan on this program what happened . Im still a fan of the product. I love the product i dont mean the product. I mean the stock i know, i know. This was not a good visit back to lulu for me it was not profitable. I dont like the way its acting i also think when you come out of this pandemic as weve discussed on the show before that youll see that consumer appetites may be satiated. Like how many skull rings does John Najarian need hes got 20 of them. Hes not going to buy another 20 more lets face it, its a very expensive stock. It didnt respond well to the top analyst increase of price target last week i think there are still sellers out there. Ill come back to it i suspect i can buy it at around 300 or lower a couple other things youre shorting marvel tech, right . And you added to facebook. Tell me a little bit about each. So marvel i sorted because im still long half into in five position this transaction can take a long time to close. They did spend a lot of money thankfully the Second Company theyve taken me out of. I love the company im sorry to short it. Then in terms of facebook, i would have added to amazon, apple and google, but they rescued themselves in my portfolio with a great quarter but im full in those positions. Facebook i wasnt as full. The selloff from what i think was a stellar quarter was very misplaced. I still think big tech will lead and will do quite well over the long term. Short term industrials may do well but long term these companies are going to continue to grow and im not worried about antitrust rulings just not going to happen we do have bullish calls on the street today well do a bunch of calls on the street today underarmor, upgraded to buy. Shannon, you watching underarmor i am. We discussed this a few weeks ago when we were talking about nike, i think, and so i look at ua they clearly, you know, they broke on to the scene, they grew revenue significantly on innovation and they really havent innovated over the last several years. Thats why they havent been able to garner Additional Market share. The score for underarmor is not in the u. S we all go and see them at these offprice outlet malls, see constant promotional deals the decline in their whole sale sell through recently has helped margins and now were seeing nice growth outside of the United States, apaq mea both stronger this is a turn around play that might have some legs interesting maybe the worst is behind this one. Ill tell what you, the our call that i thought today that was really interesting, brenda, intel. You knew it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to pick this thing up off the mat and say now is not the time to necessarily buy it, at least it not the time to sell it if youve been suffering in it. Upgraded to market perform at northland. The breakup of value exceeds its enterprise value the target remains 46. Im not suggesting that they think that this thing is going to suddenly turn in to a gold machine, but is now maybe the time to take a look at intel you know, we have owned intel for a number of years. Were patient investors, but i will tell you we are beginning to rethink our investment here this is a story that has been plagued, honestly, by some misexecution problems and its always on the come in terms of a turn around happening and we have yet to see it really materialize here more recently we were disappointed in the gross margin numbers we just saw. Some of that was because of mix. Its such a group where we feel fundamentals are strong for demand in general for chips that we are beginning to think that maybe theres better opportunities elsewhere. We have had kind of a bar bell approach where we added nvidia into our portfolio in march, have been pleased with performance there, but we are starting to rethink our investment here. Well, im not surprised to hear that. Jim lef and that will w lefan the bigger supporter so many technologies stocks are expensivexpensive. This is one that was in a group where we vent was strong and there could have been a place for all in the group to perform well we have seen execution problems and in our view there is value there. We dont think theres a lot of down side but the question is how long are we going to stick around from here lets hope theres not a lot of down side left. Its already been so panful for you, as you know, and other shareholders he correctly predicted the housing bubble robert shill are joins er joinss he thinks stocks are over or undervalued . Well talk to him next i searched and found sofi and applied for a personal loan. I paid off my credit cards and felt a weight come off my shoulders. Thank you sofi for a great experience and for helping me get my money right. Welcome back bob pisani here. Our guest, robert shiller, who recently penned a New York Times oped piece worried about high stock prices. Professor shiller, thanks for joining us you said it was vexing about how the equity markets have recovered so quickly since the march lows is the recovery justified in your opinion no. I dont think so on the other hand, its very hard to predict the market and so im not sounding an alarm. Im thinking that it looks pricey, and but it could you know, i tend to think of longterm vinsininvesting. In the long term i think its going to be disappointing in the stock market, in the u. S. Stock market especially. Well, you noted that the fast recovery of equity markets has left valuations the most expensive globally, i think you said there in another paper that you wrote. But the rebound is driven by tech and health care isnt that reasonable . Cant that be explained by the workfromhome booster at this point . Yeah, thats the narrative. I read a book called narrative economics and i think america is driven by narrative the problem is that its already someone different who when we have a revolution, its not the same its not ibm that is driving the market now its someone newer and i think that it is a time to be looking for creative start ups and the like because theres definitely a lot of work in the field of Information Technology and Communication Services so im a professor and i always say diversify. Yeah. But i wanted you to explain why you think the market is too expensive at this point. I mean, covid wasnt caused by a bubble or mismanagement of any sort so the market is trying to figure out a way on the other end and what it might look like. Is that unreasonable is the market looking at the covid event in the wrong way what is it that youre worried about exactly . Well, the event that we saw between february and march of this year was a reaction to covid. Covid is not an entirely exogenous event, by the way. It depends on mitigation efforts and our willingness to its substantially an exogenous event. Its not over, by the way, if case you had any illusions about that so there could be another dip down for a longterm investors, maybe that isnt an overriding concern. I think we might see a decline in stock prices in the short run. And in the longer run, it will probably just disappoint our fondest expectations but well be okay. Professor shiller, its scott wapner welcome to halftime. Its good to see you again playing off your word vexing, whats so vexing about massive stimulus and an enormous fed backstop it seems pretty clear were he here that word vexing i think came from my coauthor. Now youre distancing yourself from it now i dont use it its not in my vocabulary, vexing. My point is we know why were here, right . Without the fed and the stimulus from congress, we wouldnt be anywhere close to here well, i agree that the stimulus from congress is absolutely central to this and its true of other countries as well. We saw Interest Rates drop dramatically this year longterm Interest Rates, which are not under direct control well, theyre under influence by the fed. But i think thats also a narrative that might be psychologically people are overreacti overreacting to it we have tended to make heros out of the fed there are heroic actions that ben bernanke presided over are legendary. So were living in what people think is a vshaped recovery right now because thats what we saw the last time. The narratives are always very focused on the last time and so, yeah, i think that i recommend investing in the u. S. Stock market within limits you might wait a while i think the indicators that i quoted in my the New York Times article are kind of startling, that people are more worried about a crash now than they have been in the last 30 years. They dont really talk so much about it but they answer that theyre worried about it and they think that the market is overvalued. I asked about whether what they think, not what i think. Theres a general perception, among especially our Retail Investors that the market might be overvalued. So this is not a good go ahead. I wanted to pick up on that theme. Youve been warning about high prices this is a sort of consistent theme of yours for decades now you warn about high prices, stock prices back in 2000 when irrational exuberance came out, i think it was the height of the market, march or april of 2000, you warned about high real estate prices in 2004, 2005, you were right about that and then your last edition you warned about bond prices. Isnt it reasonable for stocks to be this high relative to bonds when bondyields are so low . Doesnt that make some sense people are being forced into bonds. Supply is limited, demand is really high for stocks isnt that an argument for why prices are high . It is if you look at my recent paper, we say Something Like that by the way, even though i may have been on average a little bearish over much times, the general strategy of using the cape ratio to pick sectors or countries, i think has shown itself that we have an etn on the New York Stock Exchange called cape, ccape, and that has outperformed the s p by 79 since we launched it in 2012 and thats based on sector capes within the United States so when sectors like Information Technology or Communication Services get really pricey, its true that the narrative narratives generally are partially right. The problem is that the market may overreact to them. And so now were betting on it not those sectors not being quite priced right and well see what happens but so far its been a good run. Yeah. Good point there thanks, professor. Coming up on etf edge at 1 p. M. Eastern time, we continue the conversation with professor shiller and well be jond by ed clissold he studied elections and the impact on market going back to 1900 thats etfedge. Cnbc. Com. There are two degrees, if you will, of irrational exuberance there was the greenspan 1996 edition where stocks went up for another three, four years, right . Shillers book was from 2000, as you rightly said, but the one that people really remember is greenspan in 96 and stocks may have been overvalued in 96 but that didnt cause them to go down thats right. And also, by the way, shillers book was actually named after the, quote, from the chairman there of irrational exuberance of 1996. But youre right, prices can keep going up for a long time. He happened to have been right about the high prices at that time and about real estate, but he has a penchant for many years for warning about consistently high prices. Its sort of a theme that he has. He warns when things get a little bit what he considers to be too risky well see thank you, bob appreciate it very much. Thats job pisani. Next, i also want to show you whats happening, nasdaq has turned negative. What had been a positive board has gone negative. Nasdaq 10,900. Welcome back shares of paypal and Skyworks Solutions are set to report after earnings today you own it, what are your expectations, brenda just to put things in perspective, pay pal is up more than 75 this year this needs to be another good qm which we expect it will be, but really hearing more about the honey acquisition and how that has come to change the dynamic in terms of their business actually being able to drive Revenue Growth for companies that they are doing business with. Weiss, sky works, i dont know if anything could be better set up for the news possibility for a stock thats up 45 in six months yeah. Almost the double off the lows look, they 51 was of their business historically comes from apple, and hair dollar content per phone doubles with the new iphone, and unlike the sales, apples got to buy these components before they launch the product, so the quarter should be a good one i think they will meet, and i think they will exceed expectations as well as they do guide, give good guidance for the next quarter well see if its good enough, right . Hasnt always been the case this earnings season as weve learned our lesson with some Technology Stocks thanks for that. Oil prices coming back from earlier losses ill get to the trade on energy next on the half. We made usaa insurance for members like martin. An air force veteran made of doing whats right, not whats easy. So when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. Thats how you do it right. Usaa insurance is made just the way martins family needs it with hasslefree claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. Because doing right by our members, thats whats right. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa you can go your own way were made for. Go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Were back time for the futures outlook at comeback of sorts today for crude after being down more than 5 earlier in the session. Joining us now scott nations of nations indexes. Any reason to believe that theres staying power to crude, or will we be sitting around this level for a while i think this is a oneday thing. You mean 2 from bottom to top and there are reasons for it, scott. First of all, crude oil was nearly oversold technically. Two ticks away from being oversold and why the bounce . Equities are helping, and its all risk on today. It also appears that in europe the lockdown is going to be more of a lockdown light so it probably wont hit demand as much as we had feared last week, but also pmi data in both europe and china really good, and china, this is not a political statement. China seems to be back at it, and so the while today is a great day if youre a bull, i still think the fundamentals in crude oil are really bad we talked about libya coming back online last week. Now were going to get more supply out of northern europe. Scott, i want to be a seller i want to be short, but i dont want to sell the bottom here so im going to let it come back to me a little bit more i would be a seller of the december contract. 38 even once im short, my target would be 35 even, and my stop would be 39. 25 which is where we had all this congestion before the big break. Its 1,000 per point in crude oil so were risk 1,250 to make 3,000 i get it the. Its hard to make a big bet on the direction of crude. I think weve learned our lesson trying to do that and people who have, scotty, have gotten burned well talk to you again soon thats sco nttations joining us. Final trades after this quick break. Our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. They help us with achievable steps along the way. So we can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Oooh, well. Im good at my condo. Oh. I love her condo. Nana throws the best parties. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Woman after covid, my hours got so we cant pay our bills. And now our Family Budget is gonna be hit hard with prop 15. The yes on 15 ads say it only raises taxes on big corporations. Thats not true were all going to pay. 11 billion in new property taxes will get passed on to Small Businesses and farms. Theyll raise prices. Higher gas, health care, food. Even day care. We cant make ends meet now. Families cant afford 15. No on prop 15. Well do final trades in a second estee lauder alltime high today. Shannon, you own it. Good earnings, raised the dividend and beat in raise, too . Absolutely. Asiapacific is the standout here they are continuing to grow their saturation in that market, and most importantly they have been decreasing their Department Store footprint, so that those trends could continue to drive earnings here. All right joe, im told you need to claire foy something on first solar talk to me. Yeah. I want to follow up on that. On wednesday i gave it as my final trade. Stock was 91 at the time, went up to 97, but you had an extreme volatility move three Times Standard deviation thats the reason i got out. Went from 97 down to 81 below where it was before earnings that dictates risk management. Youve got to get out at that point. You letting the big barkers on social media getting to you or something, joe . No. I think its fair to call someone out on a trade like that for sure. All right im just checking. All right. Lets do final trades. Brenda, what do you have for us . I have honeywell, a great diverse Industrial Company with a really solid Balance Sheet poised to recover as the economy recovers i only have three stocks and four people. That means somebody else has honeywell, joe, you . I do. I have honeywell i agree completely with brenda. All right good stuff steve weiss . I just see no reason to add any exposure to the market at this point better chance to buy sit on your hands and wait. See what happens with election day. Yeah. Shannon, what do you have for us striker, orthopedic procedures are going to pick back up again. Its a great place to add some exposure to health care coming into the year. Keep your eyes on stocks. Just note for you one more time, that the nasdaq was positive its now gone negative by a smidge but nonetheless a story to follow. That does it for us. The exchange is now. Thank you, scott, and hi, everyone, on this election eve im kelly evans. With less than 24 hours to go until the polls close and a whole lot at stake for your money, from tech regulation to taxes to Energy Policy, theres a lot riding on tomorrows outcome, not least the fate of the next stimulus bill as the covid outbreak worsens the dow and s p are rebounding today after the worst week for the major averages since march like scott just said the nasdaq unable to hold its earlier gains. Its gone negative by a couple of points now. Well look at why and delph into all the possible outcomes for stocks over the coming