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And tony main the titans home is where the coffin is. Get ready to risk less and make more options action starts now. That was super spooky lets get right to it following a troubling stat for the Housing Market as people flee the cities for the suburbs. New data shows millions are behind their mortgage and rent payment. And look at the treasuries, yields on the rise if youre looking for a way to play offense and defense we have a call for your portfolio. Carter is laying out a call for your portfolio take it away you dont think of financials as being a safe haven or defensive, but yet given the action of the market and what is happening to yields and this is a followup from the tlt trade of a week or so ago i think its important to look at banks. The first is a 10year yield chart. I like to call it a bearish to bullish reversal but forget what i call it. Something that goes down and starts to curl up. You can see it is starting to rise that is an important development. Take a look at the next chart. This is kre. It is identical. Thats all a moving average is a changing trend is important. And more often than not, its at the end of something is underway the next chart is the drawing trend line the moment you break above this average is the moment your moving average flattens. It is a simultaneous thing the principles are the same, very developmental in terms of price action look at this twopanel chart, the last of the charts this is what we just looked at the kre. You can see the clear move above the down trendline, but it is relevant to the s p. This is the part thats so interesting. Even though the kre has dipped down, the relative market is at new highs. The final slide here on a onemonth basis. S p down by 2. 6, regional banks is up 10. 5 . Thats important indication that this out performance is likely to continue. Mike, what is the trade off of this . Its interesting. I heard b. K. At the tail end of fast money about he was inclined to get tlt. Oftentimes we are talking about volatility, how much it is going to move. Not so much the sentiment. But you can get sentiment too. Right now the Options Market are not agreeing with b. K. They are definitely seeing some weakness in entire fixed income space. If you look at tlt, and others, everything seems to be implying higher rates those are good for financials and the Options Market are suggesting, amidst the bearishness we have been seeing, that financials could go higher. Xlf has a probability of rising over the next two weeks to two months i am inclined to go along with carter on that if there is safety in anything, sometimes its safety in value regional banks are trading about 7. 5 times which is inexpensive only about 20 above credit prices probably 13 times forward earnings if you look at it that way, maybe thats a good place to take a look. And i would point out that short dated prices option in kre are just about as high as they have been in quite a while. We have only seen two times they have been higher, 2011 and earlier this year before the pandemic trough we saw i think we want to use a calendar spread to take advantage. I was looking at the november to january calls. You could sell the november calls against it when i was looking at that earlier, you would have a debit of about 1. 10. We are looking for it to go higher in the near term, and then we could roll that short position to a high if volatility remains high tony, what do you make of the trade . I like the trade. I think from all of the charts the one that shines for me is the tenyear the one that broke out and continued to move higher on the charts carter showed you, he showed you the 150day moving average, it has also broken the 200day moving average you see the financials that have been in place about two months start to accelerate as yields start to rise. I like the choice of using kre versus xlf you dont have some outside exposure to single names you dont have berkshire hathaway, some of the names not as Interest Rate sensitive you have a collection of regional banks i really like that the call calendar here, as mike said for the kre, is more of a value play and the calendar is suitable for that. You have a slow grind to the upside i like mikes price of 43 because you have recent resistance at that 43 level and the november 43 calls are offsetting more than half of the calls. Hes only risking about 2. 5 to take this bet. I like this on all accounts. Lets turn from banks to beds and couches and dining tables and book shelves wayfair reports this tuesday if you are looking to get into the action, pull up a chair because tony is ready to assemble take it away we have talked about home builders, but i like wayfair going into earnings. I think they will show up as the shift in Home Improvement. If you look at the chart itself, it has been between 240 and 320 since the beginning of august. We are in the bottom of that range. I see earnings as the catalyst that needs to bounce off this support level. We already saw some of that today as wayfair tested the 240 low and bounced back up to 250 if we look at Consumer Spending on Home Improvement we saw some deceleration analysts were concerned for names like wayfair, but we have seen this category of spending, if you look at the credit card data, seen it look steady from last year of october and november so i expect wayfair to report a strong number the markets imply a 16. 4 move but the stock can move quite a bit, but we have seen names that beat on earnings not move substantially higher here, so the trade structure i am using reflects not only the high volatility, but that i expect the 240 level to hold. I am going to december and selling the 240 to put collecting about 12. 32 for the put and this will collect about 5 through the credit spread but it collects a little over 41 of the width of the credit spread those are the type of spreads i am looking for going into this carter, what do you think about tonys wayfair level the level is key. Its the intermediate low of september. The important thing is and the chart is on the screen wayfairs selloff from its 350 high back in august is a 30 high thats a function of how strong it was before it sold off. A huge winner that has given back a certain percentage of those gains much, but its relative performance is not all that inspiring it will need a catalyst. This is where its important to use an options trade if you own the stock outright it might not play out mike what do you think of tonys trade theres a couple of things to like about it. First of all, the implied moves. Its very high at 16 plus percent. We like to take opportunities to sell options premium when they are elevated as here i also like the spread he used to spread the risk in an otherwise volatile market condition. There is one other thing i would add. We also say when everybody is looking up, look down and when everybody is looking down, look up such is the case with wayfair. It has 14 buys it has 13 holds and 6 sells. In wall street terms essentially everybody is throwing the thing out when everybody is looking that way at the stock, maybe it is an opportunity to make a foolish bet. I think it is a risk mitigated way of elevated options to do that last word to you, tony, on this trade i would say from my perspective, especially with the rising covid cases, there is continuing focus to work from home i think going back to work in the office is unlikely to happen this year or any time next year. So i think Home Improvements, setting up your office, thats the strength i see in wayfair. Here is what is coming up next this halloween, the markets are horrible any way you turn, but quick, over here, professor coe has another hiding spot. Plus, calling all options actions fans reach into your pocket, grab your phone and tweet us your he question at options action if its nice well answer it on here when options action returns. That selling carsarvana, 100 online wouldnt work. But we went to work. Building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. Creating a coast to Coast Network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. Recruiting an army of customer advocates to make your experience incredible. And putting you in control of the whole thing with powerful technology. Thats why weve become the nations Fastest Growing retailer. Because our customers love it. See for yourself, at carvana. Com. Welcome back right before the break carter laid out a way to protect your Bank Portfolio if banks arent in your bag you might look for another way to do the same thing you are in luck. Another solid gold trade carter, kick it off. Gold treasuries are not providing safety, going down substantially in chicago gold and gold miners is the place to be. Lets look at a few charts heres the gtf go all gold miners rather than idiosyncratic risk no judgments made. Next chart i want to point out this sequence next chart we know it bottomed in march at 16 a share and peaked in august and made a low recently at 36. Think about those numbers, 16 to 46 and back to 36. Next chart what we have here is an orderly circumstance move from the march low to the august high is a 30 move, 30 per share. The give back is 10. Thats 1 3 giveback. Often after giving back a certain percentage, 1 3, find support. Lets look at that next chart we are down to an important level of support last chart we are consolidating biding time. We know that on the week of august 7, gold had gone up nine weeks in a row that has only happened four times in the history of the data what follows is pause or fresh giveback the giveback is three months long and is over the next direction for gold and gold miners is up and not down mike, the trade i am beginning to sound like a broken record, but short options are extremely elevated longer premiums are lower. We are seeing this on the put side the important thing to remember is that a stock can only be at one price at any given time. Why do i say this . I think the way to play this is to sell the november 3640 strangle and use the proceeds to help with a january 38 call. What is going on we get to own that call, help offset the decay and look at the support levels in gdx. Thats the put were selling and we are selling an upside call you can think of this as a call diagonal risk reversal we are trying to take advantage as much as we can of the fact that november premiums are still elevated you can do this in this security but others tony, what are your thoughts on this trade . This trade can be quite intimidating, even for someone experienced, but this is a good way to utilize and take advantage of options of the volatility that is relative elevated and buy a longer term purchase if we look at this from the perspective of youre selling a short strangle to finance a longer term option from that perspective i do think depending where gdx opens on monday you might want to adjust a little bit. I think i might use 38 to 39 with selling strangles, you have a fair amount of risk here to put that into perspective if gdx was to decline 10 , down to 33. 50, this is only 240 of loss per contract which is a far cry from the 3600 max you could have with this so investors that are concerned, think of different ways to break it up. Thats a good tip should we make anything of the fact that gold the metal didnt do anything in a week where the markets were down decisively i dont think so. I think the important thing in a rout today again, gold stocks, equities were up last thing on the trade one of the reasons perhaps gold didnt do quite so well was we saw fed funds buying on the long end if they depress those rates, that has an impact as well i think what you are looking at here is a situation where you would potentially be putting gdx at a lower level, trying to take as much an options trade with Everything Else going on it is a little more complicated, but for those ready to dig into gold, this is a way to look at it you asked, well answer the options action guys are standing by to take your tweets on air next its a thirteenhour flight, thats not a weekend trip. Fifteen minutes until we board. Oh yeah, we gotta take off. You downloaded the Td Ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets . Yeah, actually im taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. Excellent. And you have thinkorswim mobile so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. You two are all set. Have a great flight. Thanks. Well see ya. Ah, theyre getting so smart. Choose the app that fits your investing style. Its got all my favorite shows turn oright there. Boom, i wish my Trading Platform worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. Welcome back time to take your tweets michael from virginia is looking for an election trade. Thanks for taking my question i love the show and listen to your podcast every night my question is how would you trade spy as an options trader any thoughts here for michael . The question is a biden win, is that good or bad for the market there are all sorts of things put out how a trump win is good and a blue wave is good. If trump wins tax cuts if biden wins, more spending the market is not priced for a contested election the vix is still very elevated i would be careful buy puts on spys than long out west, matt from san diego is watching one top streaming stock. Netflix is currently trading on an uptick with covid numbers running up and restrictions being put back in place do you think netflix can make a push to all time highs again . Mike . What do you tell matt. I dont know if it will result in new subs for netflix, but it has the same volatility data, but yet there is no catalyst thats very odd. You would have to go out to february to buy your call options because that captures the next earnings. And then sell some november calls against it and keep doing it thats the way to do it. Thats how to play netflix on bullish options. Subscriber growth has slowed down if you saw the Earnings Announcement International Subscribers down quite a bit. If you are looking for a longer term grind, mikes calendar makes a lot of sense i am no chartist, but that chart doesnt look that great. It is churning. High volatility, but range bound, and the risk here is that it breaks the downside from the range which it has been in not bad for first time out. Up next, the final call. Im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Thats why Td Ameritrade designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. Oh. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well except now youre binge learning. See how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from Td Ameritrade. Visit tdameritrade. Com learn car vending machines and buying a car 100 online. Vented now weve created a brand new way for you to sell your car. Whether its a few years old or dinosaur old, we want to buy your car. Go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our technowizardry calculates your cars value and gives you a real offer in seconds. When youre ready, well come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. Thats it. So ditch the old way of selling your car, and say hello to the new way at carvana. Time for the final call. Carter based on the thesis that rates are going higher, long kre etf and based on the fact treasuries are not offering a place to hide, long gdx, gold miners tony . You look at credit card data it supports my thesis that Consumer Spending on ecommerce continues to be strong i am going with wayfair going into earnings and selling a december put vertical. Mike . The Options Markets dont like bonds rates are going higher and they like financials so i am with carter on kre to the upside. We want to use a lot of calendars and diagonal in that market and many others that does it for us have a good weekend. Happy and safe halloween mad money with jim cramer starts now [narrator] the following program is a paid presentation for the oxypure air purifier, brought to you by nuwave, llc. Asthma and allergies are at an all time high, and it seems to get worse every year. Its not your imagination. Allergy season continues to get longer and more intense as temperatures rise and airborne viruses are becoming an epidemic problem worldwide. With the changing environment and unseen dangerous air pollution surrounding all of us, you need clean air more than ever. 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