12, maybe. And jpmorgan says dont give up on nikola. Thats ahead we start with the markets. Dom chu has that for us. Weve been on either side of the unchanged line well call these markets stable. Weve seen some fractional gains and losses fractionally to the down side. A quarter percent to the down side for the dow the s p off a third of a percent. Similar moving for the nasdaq composite. Key level to watch for the nasdaq, 3401 at the highs of the day, we were up 19 in the s p and down 18 at the lows a good amount of symmetry with regard to the trading range today. A hot part of the market is the Cloud Computing industry this etf, ticker clou, has been a massive upside mover up another 1 today. Record highs for this etf and again since the pant lows wep lows, were talking about a 116 gain one other place to watch in terms of the stock, l brands, price target upgrade by analysts at jpmorgan, that stock was given up for dead quite a time ago. Up 87 almost a twoyear high this is victorias secret, bath body works, this stock has not been good for some time, but still very much off the record highs from years ago kelly, back over to you. Still one of the most surprising stories of 2020 thank you very much. Lets check on things in washington where nancy pelosi put a 40hour deadline on making a deal on the next round of covid relief she and the treasury secretary are expected to talk this afternoon and im almost afraid to ask, but ylan mui has the latest developments. They are still trying to nail down that language over testing. The white house said it agreed to democrats demands on this, but now pelosi is criticizing the administrations plan as leaving out minority communities. Theres still other potholes out there as well including the Child Tax Credit state and local funding, the census is wrapped up into this even though both sides are saying theyre hopeful and optimistic, the white house is acknowledging by negotiating with pelosi they risk losing their own party. I think its important for the American People to say the president and secretary mnuchin and myself have not only made modifications, but made substantial modifications that come at the risk of jeopardizing republican support so the senate will hold two votes of its own this week the first will be tomorrow on a standalone bill to extend the Payroll Protection Program but the nearly 1 1. 9 trillion price tag that the white house is offering democrats, theyre saying theyre not buying it that came after we got the budget gap figure on friday. My real question is how much leverage does Speaker Pelosi have to impose a 48hour deadline well, i think what weve seen is that deadlines have come and gone with no action being made so that deadline, i think she put it out on saturday that would put it tonight or tomorrow morning to get something done this was the deadline to get something done before the election i think that even if there was an imminent break through, it would be hard to see action happening before november 3rd. Thats for sure time is of the essence now ylan, thank you very much. While wall street has one eye on washington, the other is on the Balance Sheets of some of the nations Biggest Companies a busy week of earnings is ahead of us. Kicking off today with eight dow components, lots of airlines coming this week and momentum winners like netflix and tesla lets welcome in David Leibovitz and doug ramsey. Great to see you both. David, ill start with you how big a deal is earnings and what do you make of the markets moves overall today . We were down 100 points now not a lot of action on stimulus. Earnings coming, Better Chinese data, amazing home builder data this morning whats the most important thing for the markets here so i think in the very shortterm, the most important thing for the markets starts with the letter p. Its all about policy. Momentum is starting to slow and we need policy to keep things on track. I view policy being in the drivers seat right now. With earnings season kicking off, we had the banks last week and generally speaking things were better than expected, we need that data to come through on the upper end of the range. Surprises have been very strong, which is a tailwind for the market over time i think if the earnings come through strongly here, we may be able to buy ourselves a bit more time but we need to see that policy lever get pulled to keep the broader recovery on track. David, if thats the case, the one thing that keeps coming to mind for me is were not seeing huge reactions in the stock market to the stimulus talks. Yes, you see a couple hundred points here and there, but this is not a market acting like whats at stake for this package is anything like the 2008 t. A. R. P. Vote for instance i think thats a fair point one thing we found in the retail sales data, which is so important given the u. S. Economy is 70 consumption, the retail sales data over the past seven months has been highly correlated with income growth. So effectively youve seen policy supports come through and do what theyre supposed to do but we are getting a sense that that policy support is waning. I do think the economy will experience a pretty significant downshirt here in the fourth quarter. That could potentially force policymakers hands im skeptical that a deal gets done before the election, but i think something could get done before the end of the year, particularly if the data comes under pressure, which is very much our expectation doug, let me bring you in and throw another headline at the markets. One that you care about or think is important, the prospect for a biden win or a blue wave polls would say a biden win looks likely at this point yet again weve seen very little reaction in the market why do you think that is im not sure. I still think deep down just given the huge surprise in 2016, im not sure that a biden win is really priced in i think the reason i say that is looking at evaluations and sentiment where they are today if biden were to win and if the senate were to flip over to the democrats, i think theres a real risk that most if not all of that Corporate Tax cut from a couple years ago would be rescinded, and that was really all of the Margin Expansion you saw at the end of the economic cycle. So i think it would be negative and from a liquidity perspective, its almost like the democrats are now the fiscally conservative party because they want to either way you will get crazy spending. The democrats just want to pay for more of it so that might pop this sort of free money illusion that investors are seeming to be suspended in now i certainly dont think its fully priced in the broad market so, let me just ask you about one sector in particular you are recommending health care, you said the only holding that you think would be vulnerable is biotech. Do you also mean in terms of an election result there . I think they would be hit by a biden win and if the senate were to flip its a group we owned for a while. We got good gains. Were not going to peel out of that group on our own handicap in the election. Typically its a group that also struggles regardless of who wins around election time and even for the next few months. Our other holdings, managed health care is a group whereby a political result gave us the opportunity ten years ago. Obamacare. Who would have guessed that managed health care would be a massive beneficiary of obamacare, but it has been thats why were looking for maybe some not just anticipating into the election but looking at price reaction after the results. Lets say if some of the Financial Services especially the banks were to act well in response to a biden victory, to me that would be a tell that maybe that extremely cheap group is completely oversold and could be prime for better times in the years ahead. Again, were paying not just close attention to trends leading into the election but also maybe something that has an odd response that could be a tell as to what subsequent leadership will be. Yeah. Who would have thought electric vehicles would be going wild in the fourth year of a trump administration, but here we are. Some counter intuitive points, doug appreciate you both. Doug ramsey and David Leibovitz talking us through the markets. Lets stick with the markets. Weve seen an uptick in stock Fund Outflows but its not the sign of bull market skepticism, it could be a matter of demographics mike santoli is here to explain. Net outflows from stock flows have been more the rule than not over the last several years. Part of that story begins with Older Americans and a structural way longterm are now becoming net sellers of stocks. They own most of them. Baby boom erers account for 53 f all equity holdings. Millennials, the biggest Demographic Group own maybe 3 its very, very split right here i do think its probably going to be accelerating because of the ages if you look at the selling kind of undertow that will be with us for a bit, theres a mandatory element of this. If you have an ira, you have to start taking withdrawals at 72 40 of assets in there are pegged between 2030. This is all coming out of the market on a net basis. The big question is how well absorb this and what it might do to the change in market character. You will be selling a lot of these blue chip dividend paying stocks theres a new generation thats engaged with the markets, but its more on a trading basis they want the stocks they know in terms of product, not necessarily those that have the financials in there. And part of this also, i do think that can help explain why we have this Corporate Social Responsibility movement now. Companies are changing behavior. You can see for those target date retirement workfunds, millennials are starting to take up that slack. They bought almost 16 billion on a net basis whereas retirees sold more than 17 billion i dont think its something that will swamp the whole market but its something to be mindful of over time yeah. Its changing the influence the Way Companies behave they had a great debate on halftime last hour about bristolmyers and whether you can own it if robinhood accounts dont. Appreciate it. Thank you. Quick programming note, tomorrow is the cnbc fa summit you can join jake clayton and more to address the new complex needs of clients and the event has been approved for cfp continuing Education Credits i watched my dad trying to get those growing up visit cnbcevents. Com fasummit to learn more and register for the summit on october 20th conocophillips is buying concho well look at who could be next. And one widely followed Economist Says dont expect a stimulus deal until the end of january. Hell tell us why and his reasons may surprise you. And the great nationwide hunt for pickup trucks thats all coming up on the exchange. She wanted a roommate to help with the cooking. But she wanted someone who loves cats. So, we got griswalda. Dinners almost ready. But one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with our renters insurance. Yeah, switching and saving was really easy drink it all up. Good could have used a little salt. Visit geico. Com and see how easy saving on renters insurance can be. Welcome back big deal in the energy patch today as it reels from low oil prices conocophillips will buy Concho Resources in a nearly 10 billion allstock deal there could be a lot more of this to come a recent Kansas City Fed survey found more than half of energy firms predict a jump in deal activity as the future for oil gets bleaker ryan lands mentioned this as a reason for the concho deal we recognize it will go up and down opec, what do they do, what do the russians do . What does the u. S. Convention do thats all prices. What we created is something that can operate through the cycles and embrace the volatility that we know will happen in this business. Its completely unpredictable. Here to drill down on this deal and who might be next is paul sankey. Its good to see you the last time we talked we were debating on how negative oil prices could go. The environment is better in that regard. What does todays deal tell you . How significant is that . Well, i think some of the clients are disappointed that we have the best players, one of the best certainly top five players in the permian, independent concho selling for a mild premium levels that are obviously very depressed both in terms of the oil market, but also share prices. So, you know, i wouldnt say that anyone is thrilled this is happening, but i think the responsible people in the room believe that consolidation is the right move ultimately these are two Good Companies that are combining to make a Better Company which ultimately is a positive so, i believe its about a 15 premium, is that right also interesting to see the muted share price reaction of both companies, probably the rest of the sector as well why do you think concho was willing to unload itself at only a 15 premium . What does that tell us about the way the rest of the deals might look yeah. You are right. Certainly in fact the 15 premium was before the deal was leaked, which happened essentially over the course of last week. So the premium is ultimately around where everyone thought it would be, but not more so thats really the big question, why would concho sell exactly as you highlight there was some reference made by team leach that said this new world were entering where you have to run for cash returns to shareholders, simply its too difficult for these independents to do, because they have such high decline rates in underlying production he mentioned a 40 corporate underlining decline rate so theyre forced to reinvest rapidly. That makes it hard to generate cash return dividends to shareholders thats really a fundamental problem. The history of the industry was that you grew, you grew, you grew, then you sold to conocophillips so the strategy worked, but theres no appetite for big premiums anymore and thats fundamentally negative so finally, what would you tell investors what would your picks be in the sector right now well, theres a lot of interest around d. O. G. , are they going to deal, there was a rumor that maybe they were getting taken over eog is the best company but they have issues with federal lands we like pioneer, pxd, which has the right strategy and thinks they can make it happen, this cash return strategy with low growth those are two good permian names. Takeover potential with parsley. Generally speaking, the permian is a great place to invest, we just need to get oil demand and jet fuel demand back we think the world will be surprised how much oil will be use used still, the fact that concho made this move now, if they saw those brighter times around the corner, why didnt they hold on . But thanks for joining us today. Thanks. Coming up, investors shrugged off the launch of the iphone 12 but the latest presays numbers for the phone show consumers. Reporter ecigarette with this seal, this restaurant is committing to higher levels of cleanliness. And coming up why you may want to invest in puzzles. Stay with us the expertise that helps keep hospitals clean, is helping keep businesses clean too. Look for the ecolab science certified seal. Wow, i wish i could get a deal on a smartphone, but im not a new customer. Well, actually now, new and existing customers can get our best smartphone deal. Its historic. That is historic. Which means. Im making history, right . Yea, i dont know if id exactly sa wow. Me, dave brown. Existing customer who got the greatest deal in history. Just like every other customer gets. Oh thats cool too. Its not complicated. At t is making history. Everyone gets our best smartphone deals, including the lates preorders. Welcome back to the exchange. Were near session lows, not at them, but the dow is down 89 points we were down about 130 at the lows and up about 100 at the highs. About a third to a fifth percent decline across all the major averages all ten sectors are also lower right now. Energy which we just spoke about, industrials and materials are the biggest laggards today energy down about 1 lets check in on some individual movers, we have hr moving lower after jeffries initiated the stock with an underperform and a 320 price target they see execution risk Going Forward for rh rh is down about 2 . The airlines are flying higher with hawaii and united leading the pack tsa reporting today that it did screen more than 1 Million People nationwide yesterday. The first time volume has been over 1 million passengers since the pandemic shares of hawaiian up 5 united up that much as well. Finally the solar etf tan is seeing a high today. Solar edge, a 3 gain. Jinko also up. Lets get to sue herera for our cnbc news update hello heres whats happening. New and disturbing Video Evidence connected to the case involving five michigan men accused of conspiring to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer has been released by state prosecutors. They say it shows men using guns and conducting Training Drills as part of their preparations. A defense attorney for one suspect says the video only shows the men exercising their constitutional rights. A new study from Brown University citing asymptomatic transmission as a major contributing factor of covid outbreaks in nursing facilities. Nearly 45 of people in these facilities showed symptoms another 20 did not show symptoms until after testing positive for the disease. Cvs is hiring 15,000 employees nationwide as it gears up to tackle an expected influx in covid and flu cases during the colder seasons 10,000 will be registered pharmacy technicians the expanded work force will also come in handy when covid vaccines are deemed safe and ready to be distributed. Thats the news update back to you. We will take a hiring spree anywhere these days. Thank you very much. As the pandemic kept Stores Closed and people indoors, stockx has seen a boom, thats the digital platform where People Exchange sneakers and other things Frank Holland has the story. In the month of july, stockx had its best month ever. Women and buyers over the age of 45, those have been the Growth Drivers during the pandemic. As Stores Closed and inperson shopping ground to a halt this spring, consumers moved online one big beneficiary, secondary marketplace, stockx. We were surprised by what we saw as in may and june and july again unprecedented volumes in the platform reporter valued at 1 billion, secondhand goods seller stockx says global sales came in three times higher during the pandemic than the year before. Sneakers as a category outperformed the market. When you look at the returns if you were in the asset class of sneakers we have other categories in the market for example, puzzles as a category has grown 600 . Reporter for sellers like vernon simms, selling goods has become his fulltime job. The past couple of years ill do 2 million, 3 million in sales a year reporter simms said when covid first hit, he wa worried about his livelihood he feared with Stores Closed down his supplies would dry up first. At first it was a little scary. You didnt know what was going to happen. Personal friends of mine had gotten laid off. They lost their jobs but like a month after that i had the biggest month ive ever had, the month after that was bigger than that were seeing a bit of the consumer reaction of just wanting access to something that provides happiness and joy and for many it is economic opportunity. Reporter analysts estimate the Global Resale market currently valued at 6 billion could reach 30 billion by 2030. As the category expands, so does the demographic of users postpandemic, weve seen people over the able of 45 grow by 30 that was a slice of the economy that now with the Digital Divide being overcome, and ecommerce growing we even see growth in those consumers on the platform which is exciting important to note these are highend sneakers were talking about. The average price in the u. S. , 60. The average price on a sneaker on stockx, 270. Wow 2 million to 3 million in sales, i would love to know what hes pocketing from that thats awesome, especially since his business wasnt hit harder im looking at shares of ebay. Ebay is up 54 theyve been a monster but its clear they view these guys as a threat they just started saying, ebay has, theyll start authenticating sneaker sales over 100. Do you think they could come back and take a piece of this market back . I think its even a bigger market than we might imagine we spoke to a number of sellers, one i went to college with, he didnt want to mention how much he makes a year. People over the acge of 45 and women now dipping their toe into this so i think ebay is trying to get on to something that could an rocket ship that could take off. Consumer Discretionary Spending during the pandemic has been the biggest growth driver on the s p and for sneakers these are not things people need, but its things people want i guess it depends on your point of view saying i need them frank, appreciate it the iphone super cycle, is it on . Thats coming up next, plus a contrarian call on a wall street favorite and Box Office Bust all that and more in todays rapid fire when we started carvana, they told us that selling cars 100 online wouldnt work. But we went to work. Building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. Creating a coast to Coast Network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. Recruiting an army of customer advocates to make your experience incredible. And putting you in control of the whole thing with powerful technology. Thats why weve become the nations Fastest Growing retailer. Because our customers love it. See for yourself, at carvana. Com. Welcome back lets catch you up on a couple stories that should be on your radar. Its time for rapid fire here to break down the headlines are phil lebeau, seema mody and don chu. We begin with the hottest model on the lot right now, a used fullsized pickup truck. Its selling at a huge premium compared to before the pandemic. Ford pickup trucks have also become the number one stolen car in america shares of ford are still down 17 this year. Why isnt this stock anywhere near as hot as its trucks seem to be . When you look at ford the stock youre betting not just on the f series sales, new f series sales but the rest of the portfolio. They had issues as theyve been trying to turn around the business in china. They have big exposure in europe youre looking at a far different animal than if you were just strictly looking at what happened with the used pickup market, which is on fire right now for a number of reasons. Number one, you had plans shut down in march and april. So people who wanted a pick juppe couldnpickup couldnt get one there and now you have people saying i want to drive. I want my own vehicle. As a result, look tat those prices wholesale price is up 5,000 compared to february we talked with one dealer in kansas city, hes had people coming from across the country, one buyer from spokane, washington came to his dealership because he had the model he was looking for dom, what do you make of it pickup trucks have been so popular in america for decades, and covid is picking up the trends pickup trucks allow people to do all kinds of things. If youre an entrepreneur, restaurant owner, small shopkeeper, those pickup trucks are what you do in terms of getting your stuff around as a Small Business owner i can see why. I thought the curious point was yours, kelly, the idea that its such a popular vehicle that it is now the most stolen, not just because people want that truck but because the parts are so in demand right now the ford f150 among the most stolen vehicles out there. If you got one, lock it up. Kelly, i would say this love affair with pickup trucks is not confined to the u. S. Youre seeing Strong Demand in china, india, philippines where Construction Activity is picking up as economies try to rebound here that surprises me that definitely surprises me i can see a little bit of it, but any way, i wouldnt have thought pickup trucks in china lets stick with preorders for the apple iphone 12. A top apple analyst says apple sold up to 2 million iphone 12 units in the first 24 hours of preorders versus 800,000 for the iphone 11 last year, but that was just day one for the weekend as a whole, apple may have sold 3 million phones than last year. So whats going on strong reception for the iphone weeks ahead of the Holiday Season where we try to understand how the consumer will spend their money. This reflects how higher income households have not been affected by the pandemic like others and are willing to shell out 600 to 1,000 for this new iphone dom in i think that its kind of curious because those teams resonate with the internal conflict i had last year, and viewers of rapid fire know that last year i struggled with the idea of buying an iphone 11. Ultimate ly i did because of th camera i knew the 5g model would come out this year but i pulled the trigger any way. So this year i may not buy the new iphone 12 because of the 5g. I dont know how much 5g capacity or bandwidth there is out there. Its like 4k tvs, its great if you had one but not a lot of content was put out for it back then im wondering, even if you had a 5g phone, how much are you able to capitalize on that 5g depending on where you live in america right now. This analyst did say the wait times for shipments are approaching five days or so, which indicates theres a decent amount of demand relative to supply it seems like consumers are more excited than wall street was when the thing debuted last week we were talking about fords prospects, the share price down 17 this year. Lets talk about gm. Is it deal or no deal when it comes to gm and nikola jpmorgan thinks the two are still likely to enter into a Strategic Partnership by december 3rd today gm says nikola needs access to their resources. Thisadam jonas thinks electric vehicles will be a third of all vehicles sold worldwide by 2030. Gm wants a partof this market, but the fact that theyre willing to bet on nikola with all the questions raised on it, is it desperation here i dont know if its desperation. They made the deal, you could argue this has not been good in terms of their reputation for what type of Due Diligence was done before striking this deal if they make it, its not going to be a huge addition to the bottom line. Theyre not putting out money here this is a case where if it falls apart, gm is not out of anything besides the reputational hit do i think nikola and gm could work out an arrangement . Probably do i think it will move the needle no, not right away in terms of electric vehicles, the focus for General Motors right now is the hummer. The hummer electric pickup truck which theyll be unveiling later this week. That is the beginning of them saying we are bringing our a game or what we believe is the a game to the fight against tesla. And thats really what people will be focused on when it comes to evs and gm. Seema, are the chinese going to line up for the hummer electric truck i think in those markets they go for smaller vehicles, but the pickup is the exception. I wonder if the dotcom rama surrounding nikola, if that will affect it. I look at how much money gm put towards Hydrogen Fuel cells, i believe 2. 5 billion, the fact they put so much money into this technology they need to find ways to test this. Its all about scale. Its all about scale how much longer is gm willing to withstand this whats happening with nikola . I guess everything comes back to that investment. And thats really what the focus of this is all about what can they do with the Hydrogen Technology . It still may work out for General Motors a lot of people wanted to focus on the badger electric pickup truck. Thats ridiculous. Thats a small deal in the overall landscape. But it got a lot of attention from the former chairman and founder, Trevor Milton he was all about the badger electric pickup. Thats not what this agreement is about its a small part of it. All right well turn to a bust at the box office this weekends number one movie brought in less than 4 million in north america this time last year, disneys a film brought in 10 million. Now china has officially become the worlds Biggest Box Office this year. With the gap expected to widen as we head into the Holiday Season the Movie Theater stocks are up today. Andrew cuomo said most of the states Movie Theaters can reopen except for those in new york city. Last weekend a filing with the s. E. C. , amc said attendance levels are down 76 from last year dom, i think this all puts into context that even this good news that you could call it for the industry pales in comparison with what they lost here i think about this as the more beholden hollywood gets to box office dollars, the more beholden their content will, too. Two big things resonated through my mind as i was going through that story first of all, when it comes to the direct story about the movie size and the movie industry, we know its been tough for Movie Theaters and even the studios that are kind of releasing these flicks because of covid19 and the lockdowns. Peoples Comfort Level with that. It doesnt surprise me that the u. S. Market here is more, i guess, slowed down in terms of how theyll adopt things the other thing i thought about is this is just another kind of microcosm, another battle on that front between the kind of between china and the u. S. Is basically what it comes down. It doesnt matter if its Artificial Intelligence or super computing, youre talking about the worlds two biggest economies. China faster growing than the u. S. Right now this will be the battle that plays out over the next several decades. In the movie side of things, we already knew they would be big, i need the u. S. To feel they can play catch up if the economy gets going but china is in the position it is in now because it was able to command and conjugres conquer po not doing anything for a blarge amount of time yeah. See seema, last week at milkin a couple studio executives were asked if they would buy Movie Theaters they laughed off the idea saying no way these stocks, amc has told us about its concerns about cash flow this year it reminds me of the conversations happening in the hotel sector where you ask a hotel brand like marriott and hilton, are you willing to buy some of the Distressed Hotel properties and they would potentially laugh at that question as well i think the theaters can learn a lot from the travel industry, whether youre a restaurant, cruise line or a hotel, making consumers feel comfortable walking into a confined space, indoor space, and how to make that work is still the big question you know, what kind of hepa filters are you using . You need to figure that out before you open your doors to americans. Yeah. I thought it was encouraging that Airline Study that said covid is not spreading on the airlines or they havent seen it yet. You would think a similar thing for Movie Theaters could go a long way now well leave it there thank you all. Coming up, stimulus is still stalled and could be until next year according to one economist who has what his late january deal would mean for markets in the economy. Were ckn coleba ia up at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. If youre concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes . If you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities . For nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in Companies Making a difference because we see value in doing good. Talk to your Financial Advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. Talkbefore we talk aboutdvisor taxsaudreys expecting. New . Twins wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. This was the theater i came to quite often. The support weve had over the last few months has been amazing. Its not just a work environment. Everyone here is family. If you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. We thought for sure that we were done. And this town said not today. Welcome back to the exchange. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is issuing a 48hour deadline on stimulus negotiations if they want to pass a bill before the election this comes as Mitch Mcconnell says the senate will vote on a narrow 5 500 billion package thi week pelosi expected to continue talks with the treasury secretary this afternoon our next guest says forget 48 hours or 48 days, nothing will get done until after the inaugurati inauguration Ian Shepherdson joins us by late january, how much impetus is there to get a deal done by that point i guess if it feels that urgent by then, it will in some ways be too late or tell me about your thinking here. Well, my thinking is Mitch Mcconnell doesnt want to do a big deal because he cant get it past some members of his caucus, he doesnt want to split his caucus to do a deal that the president wants because i suspect mcconnell thinks the president is toast why would mcconnell spend his Political Capital to do a deal that will get him in troubles with his members in the next congress so i think that he offers this 5 500 billion bill which democrats wont take, so nothing gets done. After the election, the lame duck session, nothing gets done. Looking at the new congress in january. My guess my guess because thats what the polls say is that it will be a democrat senate, just, and a democrat in the white house. So then we got all three branches of government working together that means we can have a bill ready for bidens signature when hes president in late january and then the money can start to flow in february so thats four months from now, which is a long time when the economy is stuttering along as it is right now. And the virus numbers are shooting higher again. But i think its the most likely outcome at this point. So we spoke at the top of the hour about markets and one of my guests said they dont think theyre pricing in a biden win at all because theyre burned by what happened in 2016. What happens if the polls are wrong again and either trump wins reelection or the republicans keep the senate. What would those scenarios tell you about what that next round of relief would look like . Yeah. The next relief will be smaller under those scenarios because the democrats have a much more aggressive plan. They want to offer much more support to state and local government and reinstate the enhanced Unemployment Benefits that were ended on july 31st they want to reup the paycheck Protection Program theres a lot of stuff that they would do that republicans probably wouldnt do i find it strange that markets are some Market Participants are skeptical about the polling. The polls were a bit wrong in 2016, but not very wrong biden is way, way further ahead than hillary ever was. Hes going in the right direction. H his Favorability Ratings are much higher. In the midterms in 2018, they got it dead right. So, you know, i think it is perverse at this point to assume anything other than a biden presiden presidency what its perverse to assume anything other than a democratic senate, thats different the margin there is finer. Most of the models suggest the democrats if they do take the senate will only have 51 or 52 seats. Its possible you end up with a biden presidency and a Republican Senate in which case theres way less stimulus. Thats a much more alarming scenario for stock markets than a democratic sweep, which is not the way most people in markets think. I think under these circumstances its the right way to look at it. Well, that gives us kind of something to keep in mind as we watch results come in. Ian, appreciate it very much thank in appreciate it very much. Thank you, sir Ian Shepardson on the outlook for the economy. Hawaii as reopened but get willing in still isnt easy. Jane wells is in kona, hawaii with that story. Reporter theres a lot of stuff you have to do, you have stt,ote up, take a tases n ju any test, it has to be at the right place. When we come back, aloha mainland welcome back hawaii has reopened to tourists after being closed to covid. But there are a lot of hoops, hoolahoops that have travel verse to j travelers have to through. Jane theres a 2. 3 billion budget deficit, about 15 of the 2020 budget after many delays and a lot of debate, mainlanders are allowed in if they have proof of a negative covid test within 72 hours of arriving. That himself to be a hawaii approved test and from the mainland and you pay for that out of pocket. The airports were so overwhelmed, they started accepting test results from nonrecognized partners. That end today here on the big island, arrivals are subject to a rapid anttiant test bottom line, its been a little rocky but Getting Better if you do make it here, it is not crowded, though some hotels have not reopened yet, the royal kona has reopenedand on mau and on maui, the four seasons is not reopening until thanksgiving unless of course the state shuts down by then back to you. As i listen to the way so much rides on these covid tests, especially like you said, youre going to get that rapid test when you land, weve seen sports teams and the white house, and people get false positives what if you got tested and you were positive and it was a false positive and if you go and youre negative and it a false negative i have to tell you, we did not get our test results until we were in the air so we were sweating it. Then we took the antigen test. If you fail that test, you have to stay and get another test you cant rent a car without a negative test result and thats on your qr card here we wont know if theres a huge spike because of tourists coppicoming back most of the problems have been int interisland travel. Will it be island by island or we cant afford to be closed by now i think it island by island a 98 plunge in terrorism. In the big island, i dont think theyd have much problem at all shutting back down i was a little concerned the locals might be resistant to us coming back. Fortunately kona has the nicest people in the world and we have been treated great and with great appreciation that were ba back im sure they appreciate the travelers like they never did before it interesting as were highlighting hawaii as this exotic destination to be in. We havent seen that in a number of years either. Jane, thanks so much. Jane wells for us on the exchange today stick around for power lunch. Thll join known gamer tyler maisen for more after this quick break. You apps are used everywhere. Except work. Why is that . Is it because people love filling out forms . Maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much Vacation Time they have. Or sending corporate their expense reports. Ill let you in on a little secret. They dont. By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com good afternoon, everyone, or good morning if youre on the west coast welcome to power lunch. Stocks are near the lows of the session as the speaker of the house, nancy pelosi, says she is optimistic about getting a stimulus deal done before the election, but she has set a 48hour deadline to do so. Plus, one standout group is transports they keep trucking higher, near record highs well tell you how to catch that rally and whether it i