Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712

Good morning, everybody. Im becky quick and welcome friyay were watching the equity futures. Three down days in a row, but the dow did make a pretty stunning recovery, down actually over 300 points after the numbers at 8 30 yesterday that showed that initial jobless claims were higher than anticipated. Ended down by 20 points at the end of the session this morning dow futures down about 13, s p s p are flat lining, nasdaq basically flat lining too well be watching this closely to see how people shoring things up you as we head into this weekend. And also take a look at what is happening in the treasury market the ten year which yesterday fell back below 7. 0 and now is 7. 26 . Lets talk about what happened last night. President trump and former Vice President biden making their case to the American People on dueling town halls i was sitting there with my remote going back and forth, both events focusing on the Trump Administrations handling of tGlobal Pandemic. Do you support herd immunity as a strategy, essentially just let people get sick . The cure cannot be worse than the problem itself we did the right thing we were expected to lose 2 million 200,000 people and maybe more than that were at 210 thourkts. O 210,000 one person is too much it happened because of china and you have to understand that. But it shouldnt have happened if you look at the original charts from original doctors who are respected by everybody, 2,200,000. There is a president ial responsibility to lead and he didnt do that, he didnt talk about what needed to be done because he kept worrying, in my you view, about the stock market he worried if he talked about how bad this could be unless we took these precautionary actions, then in fact the market would go down. And his barometer of success, the economy is the market. Well have a lot more on both of those town halls, including what each candidate said about taxes and some of it was actually pretty interesting. Well have frank luntz a little later to break down what voters thought of both of those town halls and potentially maybe how some of thereleaned one way aree other. And now secretary said that he wouldnt let mitch necconnell rejected an idea of the idea of another stimulus and last nights town hall, the president said that republicans would go along with the deal but that Speaker Pelosi was standing in the way i want a stimulus republicans will approve a stimulus the problem is she doesnt want to do it because she thinks that it is bad for her election the fact is, shes wrong because shes in our way, she is not approving it, she doesnt appreciate our people and she doesnt appreciate at all our workers. Nancy pelosi, we are ready to sign and pass stimulus and well get a live report from washington, actually from somebody in washington i think, but they will be in washington, and well get that report. Today is friday. Today is friday. A i. Friyay. It islike every week is a day, isnt it . I think every day is like a saturday or a sunday we should just be so excited about all of it. Youre such a teachers pet all right lets admit it, the days are long exciting, fun, but we all need a break just so we can make sure that we make it to next week too and pick it all up again an up date on the controversy over twitters restriction of disputed biden articles that we told you about yesterday the Senate Judiciary Committee Plans to issue a subpoena to ceo jack jack dorsey. Gop lawmakers accuse of interfering in the election. And twitters legal and policy chief said that the compan would change how it enforces sin rules using labels to provide context instead of removing on our restricting tweets and the 34r59 foplatform suffer widespread outage and returned to normal about 90 minutes later. Twitter said the problem was caused by an inadvertent change that it made to its internal systems and not the result of a Security Breach or a hack. Andrew well talk a lot more about that coming up though on the other side of this break, well talk about stocks lets show you where futures are as we speak. Well talk about the biggest risks to the markets literally right now, the dow by the way looks like it would open off about 21 points. Nasdaq looking to open up about 3 1 2 points and lets check out shares of hewlettpackarded entugh let p k hewlettpacka hewlettpackard. It says that transition is a significant opportunity for the remote work solutions. Secure connectivity and data analytics. U. S. Equity futures are relatively flat. S p and nasdaq within a point of the flat line. Lets talk about three big risks for the markets. Weve seen the rise in covid cases both here and in europe. Washingtons failure to agree to a new stimulus bill and a lot of uncertainty around the election. Our next guest says that the Options Market is finally pricing in the possibility of a blue wave but we may have come too far are too tags Amy Wu Silverman is joining us lets break that down a little bit. You think that the market is now factoring in this idea of a blue wave what do you mean, because the market has come down the last three sessions good morning. Yeah, you know, as of kind call it four weeks ago, the Options Market had what we would strike h. Descri describe as a hump so highest point was december 18 that chap occurs the december 14 date that state ele elect tors submit the building lots and that state is stub pobornly high and right about the time that trump got covid, we started to see that part of the options Structure Collapse and nowcollai think that it is underpricing the election and were talking about the onkts options, but none flts three major averages are even 4 from their alltime highs how did do you relate to what the options are telling you . Yeah, takes it is a good question the Options Market is giving you a sense of how investors are placing hair btheir bets if we see a greater amount of hedges in december or november, you know, it is not necessarily telling you where the stock market is today. But where the investors think the stock market will go in the future and we essentially went from investors feeling like there was going to be a lot of volatility expected in and around december to that part dropping off pretty steadily and so there is another measure that we use which looks at the imbalance of put options versus cal options. And that is also steadily declining. So overall telling us that sentiment through year end is actually starting to be relatively bullish as opposed to bearish and not that concerned with some of the tails that we described four to six weeks ago. Moisture of that though do you think is factoring in a blue wave, how much is just factoring in the idea that maybe we know who has been elected president sometime in the next 6 to 8 weeks . I would think uncertainty and the nation kind of divided is an even scarier prospect no matter who wins knowing who is president would be helpful i would think for market volatility to tame the market volatility. Yeah, it is interesting you say that because one thing ive discussed with investors is frankly at this point, whether or not trump wins or biden wins, if we know that by november 4, that is a much bigger deal at least to the volatility markets than just the fact that were not going to know or it will be drawn out for a variety of reasons. And part of that is because we need to know who is president in the next week versus six weeks after the election it is obviously related to whether or not we get stimulus handled, whether or not you know, who is actually going to be the administration that is handling an eventual vaccine, eventual distribution of that vaccine. And it is interesting because a lot of people a yearing a g ago would say why would a blue wave be good foot mar are for the market it is about believing that biden may be a better administrator of the vaccine pan the Trump Administration would be. Options measure tail risks. And that is not necessarily what the overall market is doing to be looking at. The options are going to tell you if there will be huge chaos, people placing bets on whether or not there will be big swings to the up side or the down side. I dont know how much any of this is focused on what the next administration, whether it be that Current Administration extending or a Biden Administration ends up doing because you havent seen as big moves as you might anticipate given the differences between those two potential choices. Yeah, and i actually think that that is kind of an opportunity. So you are right, the Options Market and not surprisingly so because were in the middle of a very macro event. But the Options Market has not done a great job as of now of distinguishing between what sectors will do well and what sectors will not do well call it the next three to six months obviously will be some distinction depending on Whose Administration it is the Options Market is very focused on the macro we refer to that as the dispersion between the index level and the different sectors. But what i would say, i think that is an opportunity so to give you two exampling, the first is Health Care Options volatility which we measure through xlb has been incredibly inexpensive this whole time period and far more impacted by the possibility of a biden win and the second is iwm, so therous accept whithe russell which play as great role in the factor versus momentum trade. And that term structure is downward sloping so it means that option prices in march are actually cheaper right now than they are in december that is not normal you normally have more volatile i d the further out you go and so ibm is sensitive to an eventual vaccine amy, thank you. Good to see you. When we come back, we have a followup from the Global Pandemic and well take a closer look at who is getting promoted in a work from home world. Women are getting left behind. We have that story next. Right now though as we head to a break, here is a look at the bigger week to date decliners in the s p 500. Our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. They help us with achievable steps along the way. So we can spend a bit today, knowing were prepared for tomorrow. Wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe . I dont think so. What do you think, peanut . Nope honey, do you think we overdid it . Overdid what . See . We dont think so, son. Technically, grandparents cant overdo it. Its impossible. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. I paid off my credit cards and apand felt a weightnal loan. Come off my shoulders. Thank you sofi for a great experience and for helping me get my money right. When disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. Thats the nature of humanity. It has encouraged other people to take the time for each other. From job losses to down shifting careers, women playerly working mothers are taking a significant hit to their finances during the pandemic but one factor that could have a longer term impact, a disparity in promotions. Sharon epperson is joining us with more. Good morning good morning, joe you know, men have been far more likely than women to get a promotion or a pay raise during this pandemic. 34 of men with children at home said that they received a promotion while working remotely compared to 9 of women. That is from a survey from the board list and 26 percent of those dood d said that they received a pay raise compared to 13 working moms and for every 100 men promoted to manager, only 85 women were promoted to that same position and only 589 bla black women now women are traditionally more responsible for household duties and chide care, so negotiating for more help is critical now experts say. And also, you need to make sure that your work stands out. Take a self assessment, inventory everything that you are working on, what you think the priorities are, what your immediate rilts a results are. So you can said something out to your manager in advance saying this is what im working on, this is what ive accomplished, are my priorities in line with what you need. That may mean reframing what you are doing to ensure it is relevant to the companys current goals and underscores your value you will find out a lot more about the pandemic fallout for women in the workplace at cnbc. Com invest in you seems like a tough thing to try to prove or to take action on what should you do if you believe youve been wrongly passed over for a promotion . Well, of course you should be talking to people at the company. And talking to senior managers at the company he on a regular basis. But if you feel that there is no one in the company that understands what has happened and you think you have been wrongly passed over for a promotion, there may be recourse for you and may be an por an im time to speak too an attorney but you also have to make sure that you yourself are a viable candidate. And how do you do that. You work like go home at like midnight, come home at 3 00 . No, of course it is extremely difficult to juggle all that is going on but what some career counselors were telling us, it is important to make sure that you stay in contact with your manager. Make sure that you do that self assessment, let them know what you have been working on one of the most important parts, blocking out 15 minutes a day every couple days, every week, to make sure that you are connecting with people, people in your department, people outside your department, people in your company, people outside of your company, people in your industry and outside of your industry you want to have a really Diverse Group of connections so that whatever happens, wherever that promotion may be, you will be right there waiting for it and ready for it all right this might work for me too works for everybody thanks, sharon. When we come back, a new study raising some important questions about a major coronavirus treatment, we have dr. Scott gottlieb, he will weigh in on the remdesivir data and new news krogs tcrossing tht the Pfizer Vaccine and a look at yesterdays s p winners and losers, back after that as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. A good education takes you many different horizons and that sticked to my mind. So, when 1 a day came out, i said, why not . Why not just utilize that resource. And walmart made that path open for me. Without the 1 a day program, i definitely dont think id be in school right now. Each week for me in school is just an accomplishment. I feel proud every step of the way. Sgcgood morning, everybody. Equity futures now in the green. Dow looks like it would open up about 51 points higher, nasdaq 27 and the s p 500 looking to open about 7 points higher and a deal in the banking sector, cit group and First Citizens bank shares are kochl binine i combining, an all stock transaction. Holders will own about 61 of the combined company when that deal is completed. Becky. And when we come back, dr. Scott got leetlieb weighs in on vaccine news and disappointing report on remdesivir plus more on the town hall showdown, well show you what each candidate said about taxes and what it could mean for your money. Hmms and ahhs heard incall. But a resilient business you cacan be ready for it. Re. A Digital Foundation from vmware helps you redefine whats possible. Now. From the hospital shifting to remote patient care in just 48 hours. To the university moving hundreds of apps quickly to the cloud. Or the City Government Going Digital to keep Critical Services running. You are creating the future on the fly. And we are helping you do it. Vmware. Realize whats possible. Welcome back new study bring the World Health Organization said the antiviral drug remdesivir had little or no effect on mortality for those hospitalized with covid19 it said the drug also does not seem to help patients recover any faster findings were part of a trial by the w. H. O. Using four drugs including hydroxychloroquine, in interferon, but it it has not b Peer Reviewed or published gilead said that the findings do not mean that the drug has no benefit. And news just out, fiz pfizer s could be ready to am apply for emergency use authorization for its vaccine candidate by late november that comes in an open letter issued this morning by pfizer chair haman and ceo, saying that they are seeking to provide greater clarity are regarding time lines for the vaccine being developed by pfizer and partner bio intech. And joining us, dr. Gottlieb and serves on the board of pfizer. And i looked at the actual release, and i wish you could stay until 7 00 because ive got about six things to talk to you about. But it seems that he is saying that assuming everything goes right, that is when we could do it and i dont know if hes saying that things are going right. Well, i havent seen it yet, so i was listening to the news as you were reading it i have not read the letter yet but what you said seems consistent with what the company has already said in terms of when they might have data, enough patients with the second dose so i would have to take a look at it. He said assuming positive results with both sets of data that they are talking about, pfizer said it could file for emergency use authorization using after he receiving the safety data and then a third set of data which would be looking at a large scale manufacturing, and then it is laying out the time line in an effort to clear up any confusion about the complex process. So we have that seems consistent with what the company has been saying and also consistent with the guidance that the fda put out, the fda said they want two month followup data on patients. So if you look at the number of patients dosed in that clinical trial, the expectation was that both pfizer and moderna would start approaching having two month followup data on most of the patients towards the end of the month. And so Companies Might be able to reply as early as end of november or early december so that is fairly consistent and we havent talked to you about the j and j you newenews i think that that is different it is an adenovirus vector that has been used safely in other case but there was an unexplained illness that still hasnt been resolved can you add anything to that pause which is important because i believe that there are four vying for a vaccine and two in the United States at least are already the least paused we have to be k5i6 wicareful wie language these kinds of pauses in large Clinical Trials arent unusual. But were focused and so they are watched very closely but this is not unusual. We dont know a lot about the j j case i dont think that there is any reason to try to read across take to the astrazeneca experience where there is a belief that there could be a side effect associated with the vaccine and potentially associated with the vector you only saw it in that trial. T so no reason to believe that the j j product because it is also a virus vector vaccine would have the same side effects associated with it because it is a very different virus vehicle to are that they are using and they actually have a lot of experience with that virus using it as a vector for the delivery of vaccines. I thought about that. Out of all the drugs i see, just advertised on nightly news every night, i want them all because they all sound great there is so much advertising not a single time do i remember monitoring the Clinical Trials of the drug that they are trying to sell me were following this very closely and we never have. So lets go to adding remdesivir to the lilly antibody. Are we convinced that the lildly a lilly and regeneron antibodies were safe and maybe it was the problem of the combination or are we not worried mabout the combination . One of the lilly trials was paused, the nih is conducting right now, hospitalized patients so there is a belief that there could be some side effect that became unmasked in that setting. The data that you led in with about remdesivir, id be cautious drawing too many con firmed conclusions from that it wasnt rigorously conducted 20 of the data was missing. And it was done in the developing world so while it informs clinical practice, it is not clear how transferable the results will be here in the cUnited States. So id be cautious about drawing conclusions from that. Other studies suggest that it can provide a benefit. In terms of using them together, at least these receipt particularly the drug should work they attack different mechanisms but there is no data to guide that other than the case study of the president he is the most famous president to receive both drugs. Chris christie received both drugs as well. And there is now anecdotal data, but really no firm data to guide that use so in europe, rolling average above the United States, not great there. Seeing more lockdowns. And today were finding daily u. S. Virus cases at the highest level since august so europe and the United States both seeing a resurgence of virus cases. It is worrisome, but maybe not unexpected well, certainly not unexpected especially if you have been watching this show weve been talking about the fall surge for a long time now i think that this is the beginning of that reality. Europe is probably two or three weeks ahead of us. I think that were in for a difficult fall and winter. Well have more cases, well probably eclipse the prior totals well have more hospitalizati hospitalizations right now pushing 37,000 hospitalizations i think the Silver Lining is that the death rate will be substantially less now than it was certainly during the spring. And even during the outbreak in the south. The endepartmentic in t departd the summer whether or not that changes peoples psychology around the disease rkz i don disease, i dont think so. I think people will be worried about getting it and more controversy about the masks. And i dont know what the cdc meant by saying that of the people who got the virus, 85 said that they had been wearing the mask i mean, do we think this is user error like we see that maybe they werent wearing the mask as much as they said they were or does it not protect the person wearing the mask but it protects people from the individual that has a mask on . Weve heard that before, that those around them are being protected. Do we know or it is just an art and not a science . Well, it is all those things. People who report Wearing Masks dont report wearing them all the time, they dont wear them appropriately. It does provide more protection from you than it does to the individual wearing the mask. This is where the quality of the mask comes into play if you wear it well, you will afford yourself a high degree of proesks. Most people dont do that, most people dont differentiates that much between different quality of the masks but if you get your handson level three procedure mask, that is better than level two and the dust masks and better than a cloth mask and if you can get an n95 mask, that ready for a affords you the best level of protection and so it depends on the quality of the mask and how you wear it, but it is the case that some people who get infected wore a mask part of the time and dont know where they became infected. And ive talked to it a number of governors and they are doing tracking and tracing looking at where their outbreaks are owe k occurring. And a lot are in family settings where people let their guard down so people wear a mask when they go shopping and then have 15, 20 people at their how was and that is when the infection happens. And to that very point, Chris Christie yesterday said that it was a mistake for him not to wear a mask and the president last night during the town hall, a van a Savannah Guthrie quizzed him about masks and he cited this study saying that masks are not a panacea. My question to you is, you know, listening to Chris Christie on one side and then listening to the president on the other side, it was two very different views of the world what is your view . Well, look, masks are not a panacea, but they will afford you a level of protection. And in an environment where the alternative is having a raging epidemic that will force some kind of economic dislocation, id rather try to get everyone in masks and id rather try to get them in high quality masks because we know that it will slow down the transmission it will have an impact the study that they cited isnt really a good piece of evidence to draw the kinds of conclusions that some people are drawing that masks dont work. Masks are partially protective, not foolproof. If you wear a better quality of mask and you wear it more often, you will get more protection but they cut down on your ability to transmit the infection if you are infected. Thats what they primarily do. Let me ask you straight up, do you think it is a mistake for the president to continually raise questions about Wearing Masks and clearly not to model Wearing Masks . Yeah, i do. I think the president should be out trying to model behaviors that are going to allow us to maintain as much of what is important to us in terms of sending our kid it is schokids d keeping the economy going. We have an epidemic that is starting to gallop here and we need to look at the sichlg things to try to get control masks are the simplest things do and getting more ppe to people there are still shortages of ppe. Schoolteachers cant get n95 masks. They should be wearing high quality masks in those settings. Doctor, thank you 15 minutes, probably could have gone to 30 minute, but we covered a lot of ground. Thank you. Good to oh, wait a minute, thousa now becky just a question on the last thing he said. I was out, but the very last thing that dr. Gottlieb said, if you think the teachers should be wearing n95 masks, what about the students because they are pretty uncomfortable and hard to imagine a first, second, third grade erd wearing a n95 mask for four or five or six hours. Yeah, i think the kids are less of a transmission risk and less vulnerable to the infection. I think the teachers are more likely to have a bad outcome if they become infected but i think that the teachers need to protect themselves you have a lot of teachers that are older, more vulnerable kids should be wearing whatever masks that is comfortable for them a cloth mask, a procedure mask but the best mask is the mask that the child will be comfortable wearing. The teachers cant have access to ppe in a lot of schools and that is a mistake. At the very least, they should have a access to it if they want a high quality mask. Dr. Gottlieb, appreciate it very much as always. Im sure well talk to you again soon when we come back, a lot more to come here. Morgan stanleys head of u. S. Public policy research will be with us, he will tell you what assets are most and least priced for different election outcomes. And what weve learned at last nights dueling town halls dont want to miss that. President trump and former Vice President biden appeared at separate town halls last night and the topic of taxes came up in each. When i said trump tax cuts, about 1. 3 trillion of the 2 trillion in his tax cuts, went to the top one tenth of 1 that is what im talking about eliminating. Not all the tax cuts that are out there. And by the way tax rate from 35 and democrats, republicans, who were in office thought it should come down to 28 . He reduced it to 21 you have 91 out of the fortune 500 companies not paying a single solitary penny. If you raise the Corporate Tax to 28 , which is a fair tax, you would raise 1,300,000,000,000 by that one act. We have given you the greatest tax cut in the history of our country, greatest regulation cut, equally as important, and we created new levels of jobs that nobody thought was possible, and next year is going to be better than ever before. Lets welcome michael zizas, Morgan Stanleys head of u. S. Public policy research, and michael, its good to see you. Good morning. What did you take away from the tax debate last night, and what are you anticipating for this election that you see and how the market maybe is shaping up for that . Yeah, so i think its good, obviously, that both sides are starting to put more detail around their tax policies. But i think we have to take all of that talk with a grain of salt there is a substantial difference between whats promised on the campaign trail and what actually gets through i think for investors if you focus too much on what is the proposal of a president ial candidate versus what can likely get through, you can sometimes miss the forest for the trees. You have to take the taxes in conjunction with the spending proposals and on the republican side, i think enacting further tax cuts probably requires them, the president not just to win reelection but for the republicans to take back the house of representatives and joe biden to be able to enact tax increases hes talking about, he needs the senate to turn democrat as well so theres a lot of configurations where you dont have any tax change. Even the configuration where you have higher taxes, those probably come alongside some substantial spending increases as well. The Bigger Picture for a sweep, either side, one party of the other sweeps, i think youre looking at a lot of fiscal expansion. We have been telling investor, dont get wrapped around the axel too much on the tax side of this its about whether or not theres going to be fiscal expansion to support the economy in 2021, and support the vshaped recovery and the configurations that most do that, a democratic win where the party takes control of everything or a republican win where the party takes control of everything. You think its most likely going to be an uneventful election i dont know if its most likely its becoming increasingly likely we could get surprised by an uneventful Election Night. Two things, first, i think markets are really focused on whether or not were going to have a fiscal stimulus bill between now and the election, thats becoming increasingly unlikely, but of course the election will probably tell you whether or not Something Like that is possible in the First Quarter of next year, so the election itself potentially unlocks some clarity around the really important Election Debate or market debate, and the second is that we have sort of sounded the alarm, i know others have, about increased use of vote by mail, slowing the vote count thats a challenge for knowing the result early, however, what were also starting to see in this weekly data being put out by the states themselves is not only has vote by mail been shattering the records, the return rate of vote by mail has been shattering records, florida and North Carolina, you can count the votes early. 40 have been returned already if that leraccelerates, its possible you could see early results come in that give a good idea at Election Night about what the results are going to be i think its getting less likely that the sort of really challenging scenarios are taking a couple of weeks or a month to know the results thats getting less likely question for you about volatility theres a real sense if we dont know for several days, theres going to be enormous volatility, and you talk to professional investors who say the fact that we know that we might not know means that actually there wont be this volatile moment, perhaps, and this quote unquote opportunity. I think theres a view among some investors that theyre setting with cash thinking, okay, tlheres going to be this moment, and the moment may never come, what do you think of that . Well, i think its tough to game out the degree of volatility with just not knowing the Election Results as i mentioned earlier, our base case is there will still be probably 24 to 72 hours before you have a reliable idea of whats happened unless you get a scenario like North Carolina and florida very clearly being biden wins on Election Night because the likelihood that donald trump could win reelection in that case becomes quite small your kind of broader question of whether or not there is a volatility moment to take advantage of, regardless of how long it takes to know the result, theres always the potential for the market to make mistake. In 2016, there was the consensus going into Election Night, that a donald Trump Victory would be bad for risk assets and for about two hours, it was, and then of course it went in the other direction for the next year plus. Here, if we think theres a similar mistake to be made, it probably would come in a big democratic win because while i laid out the case earlier for you about why we actually think that could be gdp additive through fiscal stimulus, what investors are telling us in our surveys, they are very much focused on the negative tax and regulatory implications for that our Strategy Team thinks you could see initial trade down in that moment, ultimately a dip. Michael thank you for your time im sure well have you back soon because obviously these issues arent going away good to see you. Good to see you thanks very much coming up after this break, we have representative ro repr o ro whan khanna and kevin oleary. Bill flynn is going to talk about how the rail operators are navigating the economic and how stimulus is crucial to its business. Dow up about 52 points, in, p 0 44 ng to open down potss 50up points. Youre watching squawk two big hours straight ahead everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning. The world cant stop, so neither can we. Because the things we make, help make the world go round. They make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. Its what we build that keeps things moving forward. So with every turn, well keep building a world that works. vo im a verizon engineer and today, were turning on 5g across the country. With the coverage of 5g nationwide. And, in more and more cities, the unprecedented performance of ultra wideband. The fastest 5g in the world. It will change your phone and how businesses do everything. Im proud, because we didnt build it the easy way, we built it right. This is the 5g americas been waiting for. Only from verizon. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. Three Straight Days of losses have investors on edge. Today retail sales and the state of the consumer will be the focus as investors look for signs that the recovery is in tact the latest on the stimulus front, progress on relief talks but obstacles still remain well get the latest from washington and find out what it means for your money and President Trump and former Vice President biden making their case to the American People in dueling town halls. Well break down both sides. The second hour of squawk box begins right now good morning, welcome back to squawk box right here on cnbc. Im Andrew Ross Sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. Take a look at u. S. Futures at this hour. They have been banging around, up and down, all friday morning here, now it looks like the dow is going to open 63 points higher, nasdaq up 10 points, the s p 500 up about 6 points. Joe, lets talk washington lets do because i dont know, yesterday looked like it was going to be an ugly session, and as it turned out, the market, you know, paired almost all of its losses and i dont know whether theres stimulus scuttlebutt or what. President trump, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin giving some ground to the democrats for a stimulus deal, but prospects remain dim i dont know its hard to gauge what the stock market and whats actually happening, i dont know, seems desensitive. Anything positive. Youre giving and youre taking away look, there was a scooch, which is a technical term of progress yesterday when we saw that the republicans at least, the secretary mnuchin and the president would accept some of the language around testing for nancy pelosi, but newscast about it what we still have here, joe, is a threesided negotiation between Mitch Mcconnell, nancy pelosi, and donald trump all three of them want something very different its just a weekend or so away from a National President ial election thats not a good recipe for getting a deal done. Still, last night in the nbc town hall, President Trump said he does think its possible to cut a deal he blamed nancy pelosi, though, for being in the way of getting a deal done. Heres what he said. I want a stimulus the republicans will approve a stimulus the problem is she doesnt want to do it because she thinks its bad for her election the fact is shes wrong. People know, shes in our way. Shes not approving it she doesnt appreciate our people, and she doesnt appreciate at all our workers. Nancy pelosi, we are ready to sign and pass stimulus reporter in that town hall last night, the president also said that hes convinced that if he gets a deal with Speaker Pelosi, hell be able to get senate republicans, including Mitch Mcconnell to go along with that deal based on his own leadership Mitch Mcconnell has said he doesnt want to go above a half trillion dollars in this deal. Nancy pelosi is way above that theres a lot of room between those two sides. Pelosi sending this letter to her fellow democrats yesterday saying shes encouraged by what trump has been saying. She says hopefully the president s statement to his team to go big or go home, and that hell accept a larger relief package will translate into results pelosi sort of triangulating trump against mcconnell. Mcconnell saying hes holding fast at a half trillion. No indication on how were going to get this negotiation resolved its a triangular shaped Steering Wheel and that makes it very hard to drive a car lets get over to mike santoli on the markets. Markets showed some resilience yesterday, maybe maybe their peace to some degree with a lack of a clear path to an imminent stimulus package interday reversal seemed to coincide with the european markets closing. Still kind of an up trend from the late september low in the market we were up about 9 , and under three weeks over that run, so we had to kind of pull back and consolidate a little bit again, i kind of point out ranges that typically conform after you have a big sharp pull back lets kind of zoom in on whats happened since september 1 social security. That shows since the markets all time high, s p 500 you see, yesterdays low was 3450 it kind of protected the market against that little trough area, and a lot of folks thought that was of some significance, and perhaps see if that area gets tested again in the markets, if you want to look at bellwethers for the how the market is performing, semiconductors, and transport, solid uptrends of different degrees. Its hard to get too negative on what the market is saying about the economy, even in the absence of stimulus when you have these types of groups at least holding in their up trends, joe. Mike, thanks. Guys, stick around for just a minute eamon, i have a question for you. I have been thinking through the negotiation strategy that nancy pelosi is undertaking. We were talking to michael zesus, he talks about the possibilities. Its probably a stretch to think, it could happen but nancy pelosi by doing this is betting that the democrats are going to win the house, the senate and the presidency if they dont, she is going to be in a worse position coming later even if biden wins, shes still going to be in a situation if shes dealing with Mitch Mcconnell, where Mitch Mcconnell will be less likely to take any of these terms right now, Mitch Mcconnell has a president who has said hell lean on the republican senators that come down with this it seems crazy to me that she wouldnt try to cut a deal with the president and the administration talking about coming at such a much higher level, 1 1. 8 trillion or more versus the 500 billion mcconnell will put on the floor. It seems like shes missing a huge opportunity, for what look, becky, youre war gaming the exact right scenarios, and its a fascinating question, and gets into what is in Nancy Pelosis heart of hearts. Theres one scenario nancy pelosi doesnt want a deal between now and the election it doesnt do her democrats any good to hand President Trump a big win and a big signing ceremony at the white house on a stimulus package thats going to send checks to millions of americans just before election day. Thats just raw politics thats raw political truth is nancy pelosi being that cynical. She says no, she says she wants a deal, she says shes negotiating in good faith, and the same on the president s side as well. You have to put the election in there as the big demarcation point. After the election, youre right, all of this is going to be scrambled, all of the Power Dynamics will be scrambled, were going to have different people with different incentives for pelosi, the raw politics would suggest its not a smart idea to hand the president a big win over the next three weeks and after the election, you see kwha what you can do. That ignores the suffering of millions of americans. That is a cynical strategy pelosi says thats not the strategy shes employing but thats what raw politics would suggest. Shes either listening to raw politics or shes a bad negotiator which one is it . Right there are some democrats who are starting to waiver on this, saying, look, nancy pelosi, take this deal. We have restaurants, weve got bars, Small Businesses, all suffering. They all need this money right away people are struggling, waiting in line at food banks, we cant play politics with this, and you know, a lot of the democrats, most of the democrats are holding fast behind nancy pelosi here her strategy has been dont give them the incremental bill, the small, skinny bill that Mitch Mcconnell wants which has all of his favorite things in it, and none of Nancy Pelosis favorite things hold out and say if you want to help americans, we have to do a big deal here, and her idea is to blame the republicans for stopping this, and President Trump gave her a huge advantage last week when he pulled out of these negotiations and said im not negotiating anymore, this is over with, and then two or three days later came back to the table and said now i want a big deal it gave pelosi the opportunity blame trump and say look, hes the one that pulled out of the negotiations, were still negotiating. The questions is whether the negotiations until election day are actually real. How many republicans could bolt if the president , and i dont know what does 500 billion mean to mcconnell, does that mean a trillion, and how many could they lose if they had enough democrats, could they do 1. 8, do you think . The question is whether mcconnell would put a bill on the senate floor that would pass with overwhelming democratic i dont think he will. He has said he wont mcconnell is going with the majority strategy, not a majority of the senate strategy, and you know, that leads you to a hard place where you cant get a deal i dont know. I dont know anything anymore. Right the feeling is familiar. They talk and they, you know. All i know is weve got a new eamon, we are testing our delay, and we were doing marco polo and we changed it were doing marco rubio, marco rubio have you thought about that . I heard you guys during the commercial break playing marco polo with each other i changed it, marco rubio. Innocent child like wonder by you guys its fascinating. Do you blame us in 2020 i think hes calling us immature. Do you blame us for child like wonder and running back to our fetal positions . No anyway, thank you, marco rubio Andrew Ross Sorkin coming up, joe, when we return, i want to thank eamon and mike i want to talk about facebook and twitter facing criticism after blocking that New York Post story about president ial candidate joe biden and his son hunter the move drawing a lot of scrutiny from both sides of the aisle, and social media users as well were going to discuss what it all means rig aftht after the bk and later, amtrak has been asking congress for additional fu funds to keep the trains running. The ceo is going to join us and discuss the state of the rails well talk that story after the break asel wl. Criticism about a story showing hunter biden introducing his father to a ukrainian businessman. Fcc chairman, is saying he plans to clarify the scope of section 230 which protects platforms from being held liable for users posts joining us now congressman ro khanna and kevin oleary, shark tank and cohost of shark tank, msnbc contributor. So congressman, are you okay with twitter and facebook deciding what is seeable by a lot of people that are on the sites . Is that do you think theyre in a position i mean, they already do that a little bit but in this case, are you okay with this . Can you defend this . No, they made a mistake, and im glad twitter reversed it the principle that the journalist cant publish unauthorized sources would mean that we would not have published the pentagon papers, wikileaks the policy was overbroad they cant say that anything that is packed could not be disseminated if its a public concern. Just this morning, they have reversed themselves, and they have said that they wont allow hackers themselves to publish the materials but they will allow the dissemination of the information if its a public concern, and i appreciate that they have reversed themselves. Okay. All right. So i dont know, kevin, you dont have someone to just, you know, argue with and disagree with vehemently about, you might even say it in a more, like i say in a more vociferous way what are your feelings about the way it happened . Im a big boy. Give it to me, let me see it. You know, joe, i think you have to go to 30,000 feet and ask why all around the world the jurisdiction thats coveted by people is the United States of america because its where your voice is free to speak you may not like the message but youre free to speak it. Im no different than anybody else, people come to america because written into the constitution over a hundred years ago was the ability and all they dealt with then was the press, to allow an individual to speak. All of a sudden were having this debate, and im pretty sure people arent coming to america to have jack dorsey or zuckerberg silence them. They shouldnt have that right this tool of social media has given us democracy like we never dreamed of i have 4 1 2 million followers on virarious, you know, platfor. My content is curated by me. It reflects my beliefs and the things that matter to me you have the right to shut me down, joe, if you dont want to hear from me, you tune me off. I can sue a newspaper that slanders me under the jurisdiction that they fact checked it, and in fact, theyre journalists and supposed to get it right, but on social media, you have the power you dont want to hear from me, turn me off. And thats the way i run my content. I dont want any of this changed because this is the tool i support my companies my entrepreneurs and sell products, and all of a sudden we have politicians weighing in on what consent content is and what isnt. This is america. We have freedom of speech built into the content i dont want the ceos turning off my voice, they have no right to do that. I mean, has this now gotten to the point where its justified to do something with 230, do you think, kevin i mean, was that one, this was a straw that breaks i mean, we have seen a lot of shenanigans with these guys but was this the bridge too far no, i think you have to shine the light of transparency. This bidenemail thing, whethe its hacked or not hacked, put it out there, and let everybody see it for what it is. And the truth will eventually emerge let me ask the congressman. I do not want to listen, 230, i want to protect social media. I do not want it to be like the press. It is a free forum ability that they have to let everybody have a voice, everybody has a right to go on to social media and speak, and if you dont want to hear from them, turn them off. You have the right to turn them off. You personally can silence something you dont like, joe, and everybody has that tool. We dont need to apply 230 to social media right weve seen some, you know, in the past, congressman, we have seen some things and raised eyebrows about the power of what we see, and you know, letting the wrong types of groups, you know, stay on facebook we have the head of the adl on all the time, and we understand that, that there are problems. But, i mean, a lot of people on both sides now, including yourself think that this is just beyond the pale, as actually they called the post story, calling it beyond the pale, we shouldnt carry it is that beyond the pale from twitter and facebook look, i disagree with almost everything the vice secretary says they generate greater backlash, and greater interest in the story, and they are inconsistent with our Core Principles as kevin said the irony here is, though, going after section 230 is not going to fix anything. If anything, it may have these platforms regulate more. Some of the people that want to get rid of section 230 are saying they want platforms to actually regulate for. The legality, these are private companies. They may have too much power but the First Amendment covering the Supreme Court would not allow a lawsuit against them even if they didnt have section 230 because theres no state action. Its very hard as a private Television Company i think what we need to do is have Companies Come up with policies more in line with the First Amendment, obviously if theres something inciting violence or leading to harm, like qanon groups, theres a good argument those should not be able to proliferate online. In this case, i think they went too far. Kevin, i know you, and i know you are the ultimate let it fly free market guy. You ready for the wild wild west everybody can be on . You dont take anyone off the social media sites, hate groups, i mean, theres got to be guard rails . Joe, youre a believer of free speech, you have to take the downside of that youre going to have a fractional amount of people going absolutely crazy but i give you the tools i commend jack dorsey, he gave me the tools to take someone whos racist or sexist and take them off my platform i can block them they do not reflect my core beliefs. That platform is mine. Its my platform i put out what i want on there, and if you dont like it, turn me off, and that gives the power to the individual that the forefathers wanted for this country, and Something Else i want everybody to think about and i have this data at me every week, facebook and instagram is basically what runs Small Business in america. 64 of our economy, it empowers small entrepreneurs to be able to sell their products direct to consumers at a time when retail is going through massive transition we dont want to mess with that. Thats where we create jobs. 80 of my digital spend across 50 plus companies is going to facebook right now if you have a better platform, ill spend it there, but right now, its a powerful tool to keep ma and pa in business and putting food on their table. I dont need a politician to mess with na rigthat right now if you want to beat them up later, do it after the pandemic is later right now we need that tool. Kevin, question for you and i appreciate the value of facebook to your company in terms of being able to advertise and reach a huge audience. My question is you said youre putting 80 of your mostly sunny the money there right now, and said you would be happy to give your money to a competitor if you thought they could do a better job do you think its possible for another entrant to enter the market and get that kind of market share and create a product that would actually take your none and make it more efficient given the Network Effects of the way speed works. Let me clarify something, andrew, why facebook is successful for Small Business. Not every Small Business needs to sell their product in every state. For example, if youre a veterinarian dealing with people 100 miles around you, you have the ability to gio lock your spend. They have provided a tool that works. Its the reason theyre getting the lions share but can a new entrant come into the market in a short period of time and displace them yes, you saw it happen tiktok, i would love to advertise if i didnt think it was going to be legislated out of business. At the end of the day, i will use the highest propensity to reach people at the lowest cost. I dont know what thats going to be. Some kid in the basement right now is going to have the next platform it always changes but the worst thing we can do is let the market, you know, be skquelched by politicians trying to make policy on something they dont understand or control. Im an advocate for all of these challenges that are going on i understand why the country is divided and all of that, but facebook right now, in this moment, is saving Small Business in america thats exactly whats going on if i didnt have that tool, i would have a lot more bankruptcies and people unemployed mr. And mrs. Politician, remember what im saying next time you beat them up. Do it after the pandemic, please were going to have to end it there. Congressman khanna, appreciate it maybe next year. Maybe next year. I dont know, i know youre a big fan, and at least a California Team won, right, thats Something Better luck next year. Kevin, youre a wild man, next time tell us what you really think, would you, please, just, sifting through all of the extraneous stuff, its hard to get at the truth, to find a signal through the noise which were all trying to do anyway, thanks becky. Thanks, joe. Lets get you caught up on the markets because we have seen some improvement just over the last half hour or so youre going to see that the dow futures are indicated up 70 points, s p up about 7 1 2, the nasdaq up by about 25. Over in europe where there is active trading in the market versus the futures markets, there are green arrows across the board. The biggest gainer is the cac in france up 1 1 2 , and shares of hewlettpackard enterprise, raising it forecast for 2021, saying it expects earnings to come in the range of 1. 56 to 1. 76 a share. Thats up 10 year over year, and just checking out for 2021, street was at 1. 50. Squawk box will be right back. Time now for todays aflac trav ya question, what ecommerce site was originally called e sw wn web . Thanerhecnbc squawk box continues aflac program. Aflac now tell me, what does aflac do . Aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. And is Aflac Health Insurance . No, but it can help with expenses Health Insurance doesnt cover thats right. Are there any questions . Coach yes . Can i get one of those cool blue blazers . You know i cant play favorites. Alright lets talk coverage. Its go time get help with expenses Health Insurance doesnt cover. Mmm hmm get to know us at aflac. Com when disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. Thats the nature of humanity. It has encouraged other people to take the time for each other. That selling carsarvana, 100 online wouldnt work. But we went to work. Building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. Creating a coast to Coast Network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. Recruiting an army of customer advocates to make your experience incredible. And putting you in control of the whole thing with powerful technology. Thats why weve become the nations Fastest Growing retailer. Because our customers love it. See for yourself, at carvana. Com. Now the answer to aflac triv trivia question, what ecommerce site was called option web the answer, ebay wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. In a letter to congress, amtrak ceo bill flynn is asking for an additional 4. 9 billion to help keep the Passenger Rail company afloat bill flynn joins us this morning, and bill, thank you for being here we have spoken an awful lot about the airlines and their need for help and how decimated they have been we have not focused as much on amtrak, but clearly the problems there are equally if not even bigger than what airlines are facing first of all, we should point out to people, you took this job in april of this year, which is an incredible time to be stepping into this i know you pointed out what happened was a passenger ridership fell by about 97 in the weeks after the pandemic, but its still down by about 75 , correct yes, thats correct our ridership dropped 97 really in the month of march. And it happened just over that fourweek period we went from having about 90,000 riders a day to at the beginning of april, 3,000. And continued along that path, much to the month of april, and we have recovered to the point where were at a 25 level of expected ridership i dont know that its all that different of the domestic passenger. Ridership has not come back as quickly as you had hoped or originally planned why do you think that is well, theres a couple of things so in our initial request to Congress Earlier this year, we had asked for 2 billion back in february, long before the pandemic or shortly before the pandemic started and then we modified that request for about another additional billion and a half dollars, anticipating that wed be at a 50 level of ridership for our fiscal year 2021 that simply hasnt happened. At this point, were planning for about a 34, 35 level of ridership in our fq 2y 21 and t suggests our last quarter, a run rate of 40 then we saw good growth in ridership after april getting up to about that 25 level around the fourth of july but then i believe a combination of other events such as the resurgence of the pandemic across the country in different regions in particular, we have really plateaued since then, and i think a major Inflection Point for travel, of course, is the availability and distribution of effective vaccines that are widely taken that, i believe, will be an Inflection Point for us. In the meantime, our strategy has been really since day one to implement not only what protocols we learned from cdc and Public Health generally, but we benefit from having our own medical department and our own Public Health department at amtrak, so i think we were in advanceov of evolving protocols ensuring we had a safe environment first for our employees, and of course our customers and riders right hey, bill, walk me through this. And many of the airlines have cut some of the routes they were running. They have furloughed lots of employees. I think you have 20,000 employees, and you have said if you dont get additional money, youre going to have to cut about 2,400 of them. Have you cut any of the routes that are there or because of your special relationship and because of the Public Private nature of this, what are you allowed to do by congress . What are you not allowed to do. So were 100 government owned company. Just in terms of our ownership structure, and we have a lot of operating flexibility. Of course we need to keep the d. O. T. , the fra, and congress of course, advised of what were doing, so initially we made fairly significant reductions on the northeast corridor and reduced capacity, were running at about a 60 capacity level there. Another segment of our service, the service that we run on behalf of and in coordination with 18 states across the country, in california, and in the midwest, illinois and missouri and michigan, for example, and then services we have in new england and through the mid atlantic states, for example. And then the third segment of our services are Long Distance service. Trains that we operate north and south, and certainly east west, across the country we reduced the northeast corridor first thats under our control in consultation with the states we have reduced many, if not most of the state level of operations, and however, we did run our Long Distance service, our amtrak Long Distance service at its normal operating rate through the summer, and announced that we would begin to reduce services, starting this month, and going from daily operations in those Long Distance networks to three days a week we did announce that we do have to furlough about 2,000 employees. No one wants to furlough any employee, but thats the reality where we are we have announced those furloughs and 1950 people unfortunately will be furloughed in the month of november and what we have communicated to congress, were under the continued resolution, were being funded at a 2 billion statutory basis right now that absent clarity, absent additional funding above that 2 billion level, well have to take additional steps. Well have to delay Capital Projects and if we delay our Capital Projects, infrastructure projects, that will result in the furlough of about another 775 people, and our states have told us, because they get a specific funding in those supplementals from congress that absent the level of funding that they need to operate, there could be up to another 1,650 people furloughed. Ta thats the 2,400 number, and were working closely with the unions that represent our workers and they too are joining us in communicating to congress what our funding needs are. In terms of that, though, ive seen the number youre asking for a total of 4. 875 billion that includes the 2 billion that you are automatically given by congress 3. 27, or 227 billion is for the northeast corridor, amtrak share of state supported services and the Long Distance service you mentioned. The 1. 63 billion are debt payments, state and commuter payments payable to amtrak, which im guessing youre not going to be getting from the state this year, and added revenue risk beyond the projections that you just gave us, thinking you would get back to 40 revenue for the fiscal year, i heard you use stave off bankruptcy or at least thats been communicated in some of the reports i have read around this. How far off is abrubankruptcy ad what would that mean for Amtrak Service . We have never officially communicated we are facing bankruptcy or needed funding to stave off abrubankruptcy i did testify several weeks ago, and there was a question about if we had no funding, what would that mean, and our cash rate is about 250 million a month, were talking about cash on hand, and it would suggest how quickly we would burn through that cash, if that makes sense. And that would be when when you would burn through that cash well, we have about 2 1 2 billion dollars of cash on hand right now, so if we had no incremental funding, which isnt the case, we are getting the prorate, we would burn through that in ten months to a year. Youre not the only one wait to go see what government does with this. Well have you back at some point to tell you how things are going as we potentially get close to a stimulus or not thank you for your time. Thank you, if i could just say one thing, i want to recognize all of our employees who show up every day and provide our essential service at some risk, and they have done it since day one. We have a great team at amtrak. Thanks, bill. All right. Great, thank you coming up, with just two weeks to go, President Trump and joe biden taking their messages to the voters last night in competing town hall events which one to watch it was hard. Plus, the defensive struggle between Georgia State and arkansas state, so compelling. Frank is going to join us with reaction to the futures, up 90 in change, after rebounding nicely from triple digits losses, were coming right back. Everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning. The world cant stop, so neither can we. Because the things we make, help make the world go round. They make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. Its what we build that keeps things moving forward. So with every turn, well keep building a world that works. And sweetie can coloryou just be. Gentle with the pens. Okey. Okey. I know. Gentle. Gentle new projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed. Com home. Nice shot there of times square welcome back to skosquawk box cnbc were going to begin with boeing, europes top aviation regulators saying the boeing 737 max jet is now safe enough to return to service. The European Unions Safety Agency executive director telling bloomberg in an interview that the agency expects to issue a draft worthiness directive next month. Of course that would open the way for the faa and everybody else to do the same. Ford saying china sales increased 25 year over year, the second straight quarterly increase after three years of declines and pfizer, biointech are scaling up manufacturing for their coronavirus vaccines both Companies Say they will be able to deliver the doses they have agreed to provide to governments around the world but will struggle to provide it more widely were going to keep an eye on both of those stocks as well this morning becky. Andrew, thanks, up next, reaction to last nights dueling town halls. And we have an event to tell you about, the cnbc fa summit is bringing together the companys top Advisory Firms to explore the state of the markets, join jay clayton, mario gabellia all of these forward thinking advisers to discuss the complex needs of your clients. Visit cnbcevents. Com fa summit to learn more and gier frestor the summit on the october 20th squawk box will be right back. Wow, i wish i could get a deal on a smartphone, but im not a new customer. Well, actually now, new and existing customers can get our best smartphone deal. Its historic. That is historic. Which means. Im making history, right . Yea, i dont know if id exactly sa wow. Me, dave brown. Existing customer who got the greatest deal in history. Just like every other customer gets. Oh thats cool too. Its not complicated. At t is making history. Everyone gets our best smartphone deals, including the lates preorders. Welcome back to squawk box, President Donald Trump and nominee joe biden, answering questions from voters from two spat town halls. I want to start with a moment from biden on the economy, and when he was asked whether there would be any delay with his tax increase if elected . Last year, during this pandemic, you had the wealthiest billionaires in the nation, they made another 700 billion. 700 billion he talks about a v shaped recovery its a kshaped recovery if youre on the top, youre going to do very well. And the other thing, and if youre in the middle or the bottom, your income is coming down so theres not going to be any delay on the tax increases well, i got to get the votes. Sticking to his guns on the plan to tax if he wins we talked about the same topic with him several months ago on squawk box. Joining us right now is political strategist, and pollster frank lutz who watched the dueling town halls with a focus group of 16 undecided voters frank, what was the up shot . The up shot, and i have been trying to figure this out for the last couple of months, why are these people still undecided after all of these events and ads and i can answer for you right now. They are nervous about trumps persona, and they are nervous about joe bidens policies and thats whats holding them back its not that they cant see a difference between the two candidates they see a tremendous difference but that difference is in aspects of things they dont like about each candidate, and theyre trying to decide which is more important to them, the fact that they really dont like donald trump as a person or the fact that they are really scared about what joe biden might do if he became president. Okay. So based on that assessment, though, as you talked to them and hear their thoughts, do you walk away from that feeling like they are moving in one direction or another based on these events or anything else frankly, no they cannot decide, and that they will not decide and that theyre going to wait until election day our history tells us that in the end, if they havent decided to support the incumbent that they end up 21 supporting the challenger for donald trump, the only way he can win at this point, he should have done this debate it was a mistake to cancel it, the only way with the states divided the way they are, and so few people undecided, he would have to win every single undecided voter and 4 or 5 leaning to joe biden right now that is a very tall order when you have only one more debate to come. I want to show you a couple of clips and get your feedback on them. Last night President Trump spoke about the economy during his town hall where Savannah Guthrie interviewed him. Take a look at this. We are going to have a phenomenal third quarter, which will be announced on november 1st, just prior to the big november 3rd day, where i think youre going to see a red wave were going to have a tremendous announcement, i believe, i mean, were going to find out, but gdp is going through the roof. If we dont have somebody that raises taxes and quadruples taxes which they want to do and kills everything, our economy is going to be phenomenal next year. Was that an effective argument for your independence no. No, it was not its going to be phenomenal, its going to be tremendous. I guess you can applaud him for coming up with words that have three and four syllables but thats not what these undecideds are looking for. They remember the economy before covid, and they give trump a lot of credit for that but they want to know the details, how can he do it again under this current circumstance, and they dont want these generalities, they want to know exactly what hes going to do. Theyre never going to endorse him in his persona they dont like how he attacks, they dont like the viciousness that comes from him. They do appreciate his job and they appreciate his success. They want to see that hes going to do that one more time so frank, next week, these two candidates are going to have their final debate together. In terms of approach, if you were advising both candidates, you would be telling them what id be telling joe biden to repeat again and again there he goes again to use the same line that Ronald Reagan used to remind people what theyre tired of and remind people that theyre simply frustrated and anxious, and quite frankly, exhausted from this campaign. And for donald trump and im sure that he will not do this, would say, look, i would apologize to joe biden for that first debate, and im being very serious now, i would apologize to him for that first debate and acknowledge that not everything has gone as planned, but reminding people that we did it before, we did it again. Hes got the proof hes got the evidence that he knows what to do, that it worked once and that it can work again. I want to show you one more clip before we do that, what do you make of all of the votes that are coming in by mail as youre looking at the different tallies around the country are you convinced that those are, you know, the prevailing wisdom is that people voting early are voting for biden do you believe thats the case i do, and im doing a significant amount of polling on it right now, and by the way, andrew, i hope that you can show the focus group, because the one thing thats been very frustrating to me as a pollster is were hearing from people like me and not hearing from the voters themselves, and that is the most instructive thing we could do. Lets do that right now because you asked for focus group of 16 undecided voters about the economy, and we have a clip of that, and i want to show it lets roll it. Trump had an opportunity to speak to undecided voters. He specifically mentioned the economy, and what he says over and over again is its going to be great its going to be better than ever its going to be were going to get right back to with we are, and there is zero substance to back it up economically, i would definitely, without hesitation, go for trump, because bide skn his tax plan just scared the bejesus out of me as a financial adviser. I was reading an article about how our economic recovery looks like a k where there are some businesses thriving and people doing really good and others falling off, and i think its reflective of our social makeup right now, where you have the haves and the have notes and people that are more divergent and economy Going Forward as we recover, were going to have people, our business is doing well, and you have people that havent had a job since march, and i think its going to become more and more divisive as we keep going thats my fear. That was fascinating. Do you genuinely believe these people havent made up their minds. Are they posturing when they say they dont know what theyre going to do . No, because they really really really do not like the president and how he speaks to people and how he addresses these things, and how he carries himself. Its deep, but they really really really are afraid of what joe biden will do, theyre afraid of his policies. Can i ask a quick one, the quick one is when people run for president they deserve to be asked the toughest questions in the world and be grilled they both should be grilled on that do you think up to this point we have seen an interview with joe biden where he has been asked tough questions. Do you expect there to be a forum at any time in the future where he is held to the same standard in terms of an interview that Savannah Guthrie did with President Trump last night. You and i disagreed on a number of occasions on this show you and i are in total agreement here i asked my focus Group Participants who they thought better handled the interview, who they thought was a better moderator and host, 142 they chose george stephanopoulos. They felt the way Savannah Guthrie handled donald trump brought out the worst in him she shouldnt have done it it was built as a town hall. I took a photograph of the screen, and it says nbc town hall, not a single average voter had asked a question in the first 20 minutes they thought stephanopoulos let biden get away with a little much but appreciated they let him respond, they gave time and didnt interrupt she was all over trump franks, thanks. Appreciate it. Well do this again probably in a week. Coming up, congressman kevin brady talks the latest out of washington on stimulus talks. Linked in counr fodereid ha hoffman on the controversy surrounding facebook and twitter and what it means for social media. 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Good morning, futures inches higher as we make our way towards the opening bell we gained ground as major averages looked to snap threeday losing streaks twitter and facebook under the microscope more than ever now after limiting the spread of a controversial article about Vice President joe biden twitter just altered one of its policies and the ftc is looking at change a law that protects social Media Companies were going to talk about this with a true tech world luminary, linked in cofounder, reid hoffman, and a cnbc investigation you have to see. China making acquisitions in an unexpected area. American fertility clinics, and the u. S. Government is worried the final hour of squawk box begins right now good morning, and welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc im joe kernen, along with becky quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And the futures have been, well, they started out down like less than 10, 20 points, theyre now up about 70. Theres been some stimulus scuttlebutt, news from pfizer about whether they could when they could potentially ask for an emergency usage authorization for a vaccine. It could come, they said, late november, but thats sort of always been the time line, assuming everything goes perfectly, so thats the big assuming well see. But that would be interesting. Its october, isnt it i think it is. Anyway, all the months are is it are you sure. Im focusing on friday, becky. It is a friday its a friday in one of those months, and and i believe iti b. Treasury yields, looked like yields were headed back down whenever we see worries about reclosures or europe weakening or, you know, cases here, we worry about economic activity, obviously, and comes down, sort of not flnecessarily good for equities were talking basis points, not talking what we normally would with the yield curve i didnt want to steal the thunder. Basis points matter. Yeah, they do. Basis points matter when youre talking about a low base for these things i have to say, joe, watching the bond market has probably been a little more informing than watching the equity market recent youll see big swings of hundreds of points on the dow. But its really, if youre noticing a ten point move, in the treasury market, that gets my attention more, that market sitti sitting up and paying attention, yesterday, that did catch me. Yes, anyway, here is that pfizer news that you were talking about. Thats right. The pfizer news this morning, the company says it could be ready to apply for emergency use authorization for it covid19 candidate by late next month the vaccine is being developed alongside germanys binotech, the subjects are receiving dosage, the company is expecting more safety data, just coming in the third week of november the fda has said that it wants at least two months of data before it authorizes emergency use of a vaccine the covid tracking project reports that the United States saw more than 63,000 new cases of the coronavirus just yesterday alone. Thats the most in a single day since early august the u. S. Stands at 8 million cases all together joe. Thanks, we start this hour with employment in america yesterdays higher than expected initial jobless claims, too Many Americans are still out of work, but it turns out that the claims numbers we get every thursday may be off by a pretty significant amount Steve Liesman joins us now with that story you have your calculator out again, liesman yeah, im trying to learn spreadsheets, joe, but mostly i use the advocates, and then when that gets overwhelmed, i go to the calculator youre correct there are fresh worries about the jobs market coming from yesterdays filings for jobless claims 898,000, reflecting a round of recently announced layoffs and maybe some surge in the coronavirus, but there are increasing concerns that the claims numbers could also reflect errors and even fraud that would still make the job situation troubling but perhaps less troubling than it appears heres some numbers we put together using my calculator the latest data shows 25. 2 million americans are receiving some form of jobless benefit. Thats either through the regular claims, the pandemic unemployment assistance or extended benefits but when you count the unemployed and those who have dropped out of the work force since february, its less than half of that at 11. 2 million the fact is no one can really explain the difference, but there are concerns that there are repeated applications for claims in the weekly data that make it less reliable. Michael gapen says its difficult to draw a firm conclusion about the initial claims since the state of california announced a pause in its process of initial claims on september 19th to reduce backlogs and implement Fraud Protection technology. If all of that is true, however, it doesnt mean the job market is in good shape judged by the better numbers, were still in the throws of a fairly severe recession. It would appear the stock market, guys, is trading on the better take on the jobs markets, and maybe some coming stimulus, not the worst one. Joe. We always hear about polls and the margin of error. I mean, wed be surprised, i think, on these numbers, and i guess we see revisions the next month that they always bring home how difficult it is to get an exact read on claims, on the big number, every first friday of every month, and everything, and its always a net number, right, steve not just with the claims but this is a huge economy, and you can try a lot of techniques to get exactly at whats happening, but its always, keep saying this, an art, not a science. I dont think theres any science left but its an art, not a science. Well, i mean, whats happening, joe, is i think the claims numbers are useful in the sense that when they go up, its probably reflective of weakness in the job market, and probably reflective of strength its a big question about the magnitude. As you know, joe, before this pandemic hit and the unemployment offices were overwhelmed with all of these claims, claims were thought to be a good and reliable, immediate indicator of whats happening in the economy we have also turned to a lot of High Frequency data. That High Frequency data is more flat than down its showing that the pace of recovery, and there are a lot of worries now, about the employment in the fourth quarter. The stock market, its interesting. Some of this is happening, as you know, we have to get the jobs levels right for companies to be profitable and invest. Some of it will be a drag on the economy and expansion. Becky. Hey, steve, the market did move yesterday on those worse than expected claims numbers we were down by 250, down by over 300, 320 even after we got those numbers. The markets looking at this and judging it as bad news i know its not an apples to apples game, the claims that youre seeing would suggest an unemployment level of, what, versus if its not as bad as they think, it would an unemployment level of what its really hard to try to get your head around how much less bad of a situation it is if theres more fraud in it its a great question, becky, and i cant answer that. I cannot at this point correlate the level of claims with an Unemployment Rate. Its just so off the charts in terms of how overwhelmed the system is and how high the numbers numbers. Jay powell, what he did is what i did. I did it after him, put together the decline in the labor force, and total number of unemployed that leaves him, and by the way, some misclassification that we have reported every week, it leaves him to say the Unemployment Rate may be closer to eleven than 7 its not perhaps closer to the 20 or the number you would get if you took the total number of claimants and put that divided by the labor force so its bad, but perhaps just not as bad as it would appear. Youre right, the market did trade on that number yesterday, but overall, the market has looked past these extremely high levels of claims that weve had week after week. Thank you, steve. Very good. Appreciate it. Pleasure, joe. You know, advocate is a good jumble word when they use t. It is. And they never go more than six letters and if you scramble the letters you know what else is hard, cashew, right becky try the seven letter spelling bee, joe in the times. In the New York Times no thanks. The New York Times has this spelling bee. I dont think so. Its not political, joe really right okay. No, its just a spelling bee, joe. Well let him take us out to break on that note hey, buddy. I dont know what to say. Sorry coming up next, though, weve got an exclusive investigation right here on squawk box. You dont want to miss this. Amm tell us what youve got. Reporter when we come back on squawk box, the department of justice has concerns about where Chinese Investment money is flowing inside the United States thats coming up next right here on squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box take a look at futures dow about 70 points higher nasdaq looking to open higher, 46 points higher, and the s p 5008 points higher after there were concerns we could have a down day well see where we end the day, joe. Yep like yesterday we had no idea lets get to eamon tensions between china and the United States are on the rise. Stop the presses, eamon, as the two countries cancel visas, accuse each other of handling the coronavirus, the u. S. Government has identified a new threat from the chinese. This is crazy, and its coming from a place you would likely least expect, fertility clinics. I read this, i mean, it was like, god, i could make up some conspiracy theories about this if i wanted to, and why you would focus on this. Anyway, eamon javers joins us with a new investigation centering on some of the most intimate decisions a family can make do explain, eamon. Reporter cnbc has learned that the u. S. Government has use add secr d a secretive process. John demurs, heads the National Security division of the department of justice making him one of the countrys top spy hunters. Your genetic material, your biological material is among the most intimate information about you, who you are, what your vulnerabilities may be, your illnesses in the fast, your family medical history, et cetera, and that can be used from a Counter Intelligence effort to coerce you or convince you to help the chinese. Our investigation has found four of the roughly dozen fertility clinics in the san diego area have investors with links to china fertility treatments are hugely popular in china after the repeal of the one child policy, and chinese customers have flocked to american clinics which are seen as among the best in the world take the case of hrc fertility in california. One of its offices is in oceanside, just a 14 minute drive from the front gate of Camp Pendleton theres no way to tell from the offices or web site, but the history is global, and extremely convoluted in 2017, management writes to hrc facility were purchased been an investment facility in virgin islands, in turn owned by a coal company, and took the Company Public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange why would a Chinese Coal Company want to buy a u. S. Fertility clinic in the first place. The coal mining subsidiary was merely a convenient Investment Vehicle and the company saz sais its engaged in significant restructuring to allay concerns including keeping paper data in servers inside the United States the Company Calls that a meaningless coincidence. Its the kind of transaction that can be concerning to the u. S. Government. So what if you saw a subsidiary of a Chinese Mining Company buying an american fertility chain, would that be a red flag to you s without commenting on an individual transaction, thats the kind of dissonance that would be very interesting to us. Reporter in a statement, are, h rc told us the Company Complies with relevant state laws and regulations regarding patient Data Security. We take patient information and Data Security seriously, and do not share any patient information with our parent company. In fact, we go beyond the rir t requirements and use Third Party Experts to confirm the security of our patient data on a regular basis. Its a big Global Economy why should we say theres anything wrong with the chinese buying americans companies. If all they were doing is running that company as a going concern and earning profits from it that would be fine. Reporter what could they do with it, demers says theres terrifying possibilities the worst case, and im not saying we have seen this, is the development of a biological weapon if you had all of the data of a population, you might able to see what that population is most vulnerable to be. Reporter the former deputy National Security adviser told cnbc, the highly secret committee on Foreign Investment in the United States located in the Treasury Department has already taken action has the federal government ever blocked the acquisition of a fertility clinic in the United States by the chinese . I believe they have again, these are not things that are reported its a confidential process but i understand theres been at least one case reporter and guys, syfus does have the authority under u. S. Law to force American Companies to be divested of their ownership if they think theres a National Security problem. Theres no indication thats happening right now with any of these chinese linked fertility clinics in the United States back over to you. After all you said, what do you think the u. S. Government is really worried about here . I think theyve got two concerns when you talk to intelligence and Law Enforcement officials, one is sort of the individual level, right, if you have biologically identifiable data inside a fertility clinic, you could use that as leverage to get somebody to cooperate with the chinese intelligence either as blackmail or exploiting some kind of weakness theyre worried about recruiting american spies, potentially u. S. Military members who go on to careers in the cia or posted overseas ta thats one the other is business related concern. Theyre concerned this is part of a broader chinese effort to acquire u. S. Biological data in huge numbers, massive data sets, and they can use the data sets to leapfrog pharmaceutical companies, and do to the pharmaceutical industry what the chinese have been able to do to huawei and others to the u. S. Telecommunications industry. Thats a big concern in terms of National Security and american competitiveness. They are worried about both things but some of this does sound sigh fi. I havent done it yet, have you . Im a child of the universe. Im not sure i want to know, eamo, eamon, you know. I have a pretty good sense of where i came from, and i dont think i need to use that some of the data being acquired by those dna companies, that goes into a data base, and once you give up your dna information, you cant get it back its not like a credit card number you can change in the future if thats hacked and put into a data base somewhere around the world your dna is your dna, with you for the rest of your life. If that gets in a foreign data base, theres nothing you can do about it, its gone forever. It is pretty amazing. I was in fact adopted and my kids have done this, people that wanted to keep things a secret, its not possible anymore, my friend, because my kids are related to my birth family, so Everybody Knows now. Everybody knows what happened, and you know, back then, back when this was done earlier, there were guarantees that this would never come out its out, baby, and Everybody Knows. Its really weird but very powerful a lot fewer secrets these days. But i think i understand that its very personal and its something you wouldnt want on a database, i dont think, where everyone knew, especially attached to your name. Beck that makes me start thinking about things like the data, the genetics data places like 23 and me, are they looking at them in the same sort of way theres so many hereditary sites out there, things where you willingly send in your saliva and then kwhaps what happens tot data thats a real open question and the u. S. Government does have country about a broad range of efforts to partner with american universities, acquire Data Collection companies to get that medical research. Theres even been some hacking by the chinese of american medical companies to get individual american medical data all of that the u. S. Government looks at and says the chinese are gathering an enormous amount of medical technology and data why is that . What are they going to do with it one of the concerns is the Counter Intelligence concern you could have a young marine at Camp Pendleton who goes on to a career in the cia, you know, years from now, his dna will be the same and if hes posted in china, they can identify that way, tell hes a former marine, and check his story doesnt match. Broadly theres a concern about pharmaceutical companies the United States has an enormous lead pharmaceuticals, the chinese by ainquicquiring o stealing the data, can leapfrog or at least catch american pharmaceutical companies. Eamon, thank you. Interesting, good job. Good work. Havent seen had no idea, anyway, thanks for bringing that us well see you. Its raining down there i think its raining here. I cant see outside right now. When we come back, a wide ranging interview with linked in cofounder, reid hoffman from election volatility to whether a Government Social media crack down is at hand. Right now as we head to a break, check out shares of boeing, europes top aviation regulator says that the companys 737 max jet is safe enough to return to service. The safety officials said in an interview that his agency expects to issue a draft air worthiness directive next month. Check it out boeing shares up by better than 4 1 2 stay tuned, youre watching squawk box on cnbc at cdw we get you want happy, productive employees. Well weve made our office pet friendly. [ bleat ] [ cooing ] maybe a little too pet friendly. Well you know cdw can design a Mobility Solution with light powerful devices from lenovo to make your people more productive in or out of the office. Anyone have any questions before we go . Thats great cause i really need to get out of here. Snake people are freaking me out. Hey sheryl, you have a sec . Nuh, uh. For work place productivity you need lenovo, and it orchestration by cdw. People who get it. Coming up, retail sales data key numbers are out. First thing, thats what squawk box returns this is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. When disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. Thats the nature of humanity. It has encouraged other people to take the time for each other. Welcome back to squawk box, breaking news, we are awaiting our september read or retail sales, expecting a number shy of 1 , and the data is starting to trickle in up 1. 9 . Up close to 2 instead of 1 that follows up 6 10 which may be evised. Things are slower these days 1 1 2 when you strip out autos. It stays at 1. 5, and gasoline station sales. The control group number, this is a number thats put into other numbers up the food chain like gdp, up 1. 4 five times what we were expecting, so very powerful, if we look at how numbers stack up to history, the control number up 1. 4 is the first positive number last month was still negative and its actually gone more negative at minus 3 10 as the revisions come in, and our subtle revisions lower, and the data truly stands out, better than expected for september, and industrial production, and Capacity Utilization for university of michigan yet to come andrew, back to you. I like that good news, we want to bring Steve Liesman into this. I wanted to get your thoughts, i dont know if you saw steves story earlier on the possible inaccuracy of jobless claim figures which of course you always bring us. I tell you what, i really like that piece. A plus to Steve Liesman. When i used to trade and that was a number of decades ago, we always looked at the data as inconsistently consistent on how it was inaccurate. Basically that means, the bigger the numbers get on any government release, the more inaccurate it gets if im using a 1 foot ruler to measure something 15 or 20 feet long, thats easy, but when i measure a mile long, the inaccuracy is higher i think the u. S. Is better than most, i think the error profile gets bigger in other countries, its the trend, and i think steve brought that up, and i think he did a great job. Most importantly, rick, is the ruler a prop or do you usually just keep the ruler by your side at all times i use it to measure government programs, and the bigger they are, the more inaccurate, i use it for exactly that purpose thank you, rick, were going to go to Steve Liesman, maybe hes got his own ruler ready to go here . Request. Rick is more advanced than i am with his ruler. Im using ancient Chinese Technology to do the calculations i do. Lets talk about the retail sales number, which is really positive and suggest one of two things again, getting back to the job situation, at least those who are employed, which is somewhere between 90 , and 95 of the population depends on the jobless, the jobless numbers you use. Theyre able to spend. We know we had a higher savings rate, the question is the extent to which you have a decline in income thats come from the end of stimulus, began in august and came over to september, and you have a decline in the savings rate to help pay for that. So october becomes the month that we really want to look at to see whether or not this is a selfsustaining recovery or one that is sort of residually being fueled by the stimulus that we had from the spring and the summer i think the other question that we want to figure out here is whats happening with the service side of the economy. Retail sales are 30 of spending, its the service side thats harder hit. What may be happening right now is a shift where people just cant spend on services and so theyre shifting into buying more goods yes, its an excellent report, an excellent sign of health in the economy, but maybe just a slice of whats happening out there is more than we have to look at. Joe. Steve, thank you. Now, let us bring in our next guest. Im going to take a guess. National retail federation, i dont know, people sleep sometimes, and steve was very interesting, i dont know why you wouldnt be awake to move the teleprompter, anyway, matt, good morning, what do you make of this . Those are pretty good numbers, right . Theyre very good even if we hit the. 7 consensus forecast, we would have been at 5 1 2 year over year compared to last year, and as steve and rick have talked about and you and steve discussed in his earlier piece on employment, the monthtomonth numbers, its hard, as you said, to pull data out of whats happening here we have been looking a lot at the year over year numbers to see what we can find from that, even though august didnt seem like big growth year over year, it was above 5 . Somebodys going to remind me, last month, september would be important, we wouldnt have stimulus money in there. I have to say i agree with steve. October is the number because now we have seen retailers really pull things forward we saw all of the activity this week with mid sized companies and special deals, trying to get consumers going. It will be interesting to see how the october numbers look as we go forward here. Futures look pleasantly surprised. The strength of the consumer has surprised you and a lot is confined to online and digital its there, it found its way out, right consumers have been very resilient, and this has been talked about quite a bit, and steve just mentioned the savings rate, now down to 14 . It was 18, 19 between savings, which is 900 billion, and that hundred billion in paid down consumer revolving credit debt, theres a trillion dollars that consumers have in fire power to put in the economy. And various estimates have suggested there are three or 400 billion that in a normal holiday year would be used on travel and accommodations and entertainment dining and resort, thing like that. And that money is largely going away from services into products this year. I think to really look at now, and we did this with our operation open doors, joe, yesterday, made a very persuasive case. He didnt persuade andrew to change domicile, his talk about what happens if we get in a big spike here, should we go all the way to lock downs, he didnt go there, theres a way to keep things open safely, do this middle ground. We agree with that we launched our shop safe, shop early, holiday Traditions Campaign we think theres a way to keep the economy moving, do it thoughtfully, and we might have a good year this Holiday Season. Depending depending i dont know if anyone was thinking christmas could be, that we would still be in the throws but were starting to think that now. We heard something from pfizer about november, but obviously its not going to be perfect, and dr. Fauci said call off thanksgiving, not call it off but maybe dont have a family reunion. Thats not advisable is the retail season at christmas going to be okay based on shopify, and amazon and wa walmart. Com or dampened by still really being in the middle of this pandemic . Joe, theres no question that consumers are changing their behavior to adapt to the current environment, and that means obviously much more happening online much more digital fulfillment, the curbside, buy online, pickup in stores. The survey we have done indicate that consumers overwhelmingly are going out to shop, less for themselves this year, more real gifting as opposed to selfgifting, theyre going to behave differently retailers have adapted to it, so i think theyre going to be ready with the inventory theyre going to be ready with the store footprints being use instead differen used in difft creative ways. Walmart, doug mcmillon, talking about tiktok, a preview to exciting things that could happen and i have talked with Michael Evans of alibaba, about these things, and its a really dynamic environment, and there are changes, theres no question but i think theres an enormous amount of innovation thats going to ultimately be very beneficial for consumers theres friction, were going to lose Companies Businesses are going to go away, but overall, the businesses that survive are going to be healthier and a better overall environment for consumers, Holiday Season is part one of what thats going to look like in the future. Whats your forecast for year over year for the Christmas Season what would be great . Whats the worst case scenario, best case scenario, what do you expect year over year through the first nine months of this year by our calculations, were already about 5 1 2 ahead of 2019, for the first nine months of the year. And we all know that that thats not the same kind of spending as last years work from home, play from home, teach from home. Much more outdoors, health, wellness, a lot of changed categories, health and safety, sanitation, nevertheless, joe, we have been doing a study called the port tracker for 20 years that measures the 20 foot equivalent containers that come into the major ports of the United States. In the month of august, we hit a record 2. 1 million, 20 foot container equivalents, that beats the 2019 record of 2,240,000, which was right ahead of the tariff increase and we are projecting september is going to be a massive number the second largest only to august the inventory is getting in, finally after not getting in for the year, the first six months, i think it could be a big Holiday Season Savings Rates up, although too many people are unemployed we have talked about that earlier, and steve talked with you on the earlier segment consumers are healthy, Interest Rates remain low housing is pretty strong, people arent spending it in other categories th theyre going to trade away from experiences back in products i think it could be a surprise its hard to talk about because the stimulus has been massive, but it was needed, and it wasnt just money that you can spend on just discretionary things people needed it because they didnt have jobs, and because of the pandemic and everything, and the fact remains there was a lot of stimulus put in the economy is it possible that goes into, you know, something positive for the Christmas Season i think this is, because i think some of the savings dollars that people have put away are going to come back into the Holiday Season, and you know, we have seen throughout this year, you know, regardless of the holiday, whether it was memorial day, fourth of july, labor day, were seeing it for halloween, you know, this is like being in the middle of a war, and you want opportunities to celebrate something with families you referenced dr. Faucis comments, maybe thanksgiving is different this year. Everything is different, but when we get a chance to celebrate, we want to do that, and consistently, every holiday is strong because people are looking for joyce in their lives, and i think the end of Year Holidays are going to be reflective of thesame kind of behavior people want something to be happy about. Celebrate, theyre going to do it differently no question about that that doesnt mean theyre not going to spend money on things and still find a way to bring joy into their lives and celebrate the Holiday Season they want them to do it safely, and i want to strongly endorse the things governor murphy said yesterday, theres a way to do it and we should try to do it together. The whole new wild card i brought up thanksgiving and christmas. Halloween, im at a loss the candy safe, youre wearing a mask a mask on a mask, i mean, it boggles the mind trying to figure out whether we should do halloween. People coming to your house. I dont know i need to think about that, matt, thank you. Room to room in your own house. Seriously, i dont know, becky, have you thought about this, i mean yes, are you kidding. Its not enough to put a bowl of candy. Ive actually got my own plans i went to trading, ive got gains, Different Things im going to do that you can socially distance. Im, eating candy, its like someone gives you something. How about bobbing for apples. It was already a problem, and now with covid, i have no idea i dont know anyway, i dont know. You look like a grinch otherwise but i havent figured out the perfect solution you got to put things out in a line so not everyones reaching into the bag, i dont know when we come back, linked in cofounder, reid hoffman is going to weigh in on the controversy twitter and facebook find themselves in after they slowed the spread of an unverified news story about former Vice President biden and his son. Were going to head to break, as we do that, a reminder, sign up for the cnbc fa summit, its happening on october 20th. It will bring together the countrys top Advisory Firms to explore the state of the markets. We should note were offering continuing Education Credits at this event visit cnbcevents. Com fasummit, to learn more, and also register there. Stay tuned squawk box will be right back. This is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Social media backlash, manipulating content, distribution policy, could accountability pressures lead to new regulations . Squawk alle welcome back to squawk box. The futures pointing up. Implied open on the dow, 146 points higher now. Meantime, we want to talk about a number of prominent Business Leaders who have been speaking out on election integrity. Including ceo seth clawman, melissa myer and our next guest, reed hoffman, they signed a new business statement calling for both patience and civility surrounding the election and specifically the Election Results and reid joins us, the cofounder of linkedin and partner at graylock and reid how concerned are you about this issue of election integrity, but also whatever may or may not be a delay in those results being made public . Well, very concerned because i think that actually in fact given that were living in a pandemic, people are trying to be safe, trying to be good to other people, trying to not create more death and more suffering, more people are voting by mail, there are some states voting by mail for the first time, pennsylvania, et cetera, there is so there is this question where, you know, on november 3rd, with all of the ballots by mail, you wont actually have the normal you called it on the night of november 3rd im very worried that President Trump will want to just declare victory and say, we dont need those vote by mail or all those kind of things which will lead to uncertainty and i think the thing that we want is we want to know where democracy, every vote counts, lets just get all of the mail ballots, which, by the way, all experts, all history has shown that if large scale level, it has always been safe and kind of good to do, lets just do that and lets do it in a calm manner and expect that. Reid, youve been a supporter of Vice President biden for president and you have been a very public detractor of President Trumps. President trump even last night made comments about the possibility of interference in ballots that are sent by mail. And he cited articles and there are articles about instances of ballots and other things found in garbages and the like what do you make of that, and what do you think the message should be to the American Public about that, that idea . Well, it is pretty straightforward, which is, look, did five ballots or ten ballots as part of like accidentally like someone dumped a basket of mail, and press went through each of those instances, like one or two ballots when youre talking about 100 million ballots, 340 Million People in the u. S. , it doesnt make any difference. Here is one ballot that looked like it was fraudulent that doesnt make any difference at the scale of the National Election and thats, i think, classic kind of misleading and trying to undermine trust in our institutions, undermine trust in our democracy, undermine trust in our process, and it is destructive to america, americas values thats why i think it is so important for Business Leaders who push normally to say, hey, politics, keep it out of the workplace, you know, this isnt a politics issue, this isnt a democrat issue, this isnt a republican issue, this is an American Issue this is a democracy issue. This is a stability issue. The florida reid, florida in 2000 florida had 1,000 votes. A thousand votes in florida and hanging chads. Trump won four years ago with a total of 70,000 votes or something in how many swing states what are you talking about what do you mean a thousand votes couldnt matter. It could be 500. Florida was the key. The entire election hinged on florida. What are you talking about how can it not matter . What do you mean there is 300 million, we dont need to worry. 300 Million People i understand. I understand but it could be one state and unless you get rid of the Electoral College by then, probably not likely, we have to wait until next year to do that, but until you do that, it could come down to a small number of ballots. Well, it can come down to a small number of ballots, but the instances that are used of saying, oh, heres a ballot that didnt get counted because it got thrown away, or the examples that have been used, now, if someone figured out how to put, you know, 5,000, you know, kind of fake ballots in, in a way that, by the way, you any, hasnt as far as we know in American Democratic history hasnt happened, if that happened, then, of course, in the right way, but, by the way, youre talking 2016, super close election, relative to the fact that you had just enough for the Electoral College, where you know, where he lost the election by 3 million popular votes so the question about saying every ballot, like if there was one errant ballot then the election doesnt work, the same thing will be true of also in person voting. So im not it is not it is the question you have to look at the scale of it and say, look, if there is five or ten mistakes that does not invalidate the process. And, by the way, if you say it does, you say, well, okay, all elections in American History should be invalidated. Reid, you made a comment earlier about how historically in the business place politics were supposed to be on the side or out of it people can do their own personal thing, wasnt something that was going to be in the welcome place. You have been very public with your politics and the spending that you have endeavored to pursue how do you think about that and how do you think about that relative to ceos and others that are following a similar course during this election i think that, look, i think it is a very good thing that normally, democrat, republican, say, hey, we keep we keep politics out of the workplace, you know, we have shareholders, employees, customers, et cetera, and the business of build products in terms of great employment it changes when you say what impact were talking about is the structure of the democracy we say, look, should everyone be able to vote, should we have a civil order, should we say, yes, we have a legitimate election, a legitimate transfer of power, these things are fundamental American Values and by the way, very important business. You say, well, for example, you menne e mentioned one of the reasons i support biden, i think hes the business vote, oddly, usually, democrats the values vote and republicans is the business vote you say republicans lower on taxes. But actually in fact stability in society and ability to say, hey, we can plan on the future, were not fomenting discord within society and calling out the illegitimacy of the election from the podium of the president , thats actually in fact the antibusiness activity, the stability needs to be the business activity. So, reid, i just im just not clear, so you keep saying, again and again that every vote counts, we got to get every vote, but a couple thousand here and there dont matter get those two together it sounds totally it sounds mutually exclusive im not sure so every vote does count, but we cant be that worried about, you know, with newman the mailman who leaves them in his closet, we dont have to worry about it. Partially because newman leaving it in his closet, it is probably an intersection, like, maybe a and by the way, we dont want that. We dont want that but it is, like, okay, there were 20 ballots in there, you know, maybe 12 of them democrat and eight of them republican or 12 republican and eight are democrat you know, that kind of thing is within the statistics of an overall large voting system. Reid, we have 60 seconds left what do you think the impact of the election is going to be on Silicon Valley itself . You talked about stability, you think it would be better for business broadly, but there is Big Questions about regulations right now and were in the midst of this, even twitter, facebook war, over censorship and the First Amendment. Well, i think, you know, technology is such an important part of the future, and we need to actually have our ecosystem within a democracy lead us to more understanding and more truth. I think were probably in the next few years going to be figuring out as a country how is it that we get to a common view of the world and a common truth, and what is the what is the way of doing that. It doesnt mean there isnt going to be lots ofranging from the internet, but how do we improve is one of our central questions. Okay. Reid hoffman, we appreciate you waking up, quite early, on the west coast for us this morning it is an important issue, and we very much appreciate you being with us. Quick final check on the markets this morning, were moving up. Looks like the dow will open up about 140 points higher. Nasdaq up 82 points. S p 500 up about 16 points it is friday or friyea as becky would say. We hope you have a great weekend and look forward to seeing you on monday. Squawk on the street begins right now. Good friday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with david faber and leslie picker. Cramer has the morning off coming off three days of losses, stocks still do look to bounce here as retail sales come in nearly double expectations hopes for stimulus hang on by a thread road map begins with breaking the stimulus stalemate pelosi cites some progress the president says hell try to get republicans to fall in line if a deal is reached. As carl told you, shares of