Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240712

Underestimate senator mcconnell and his ability to corral maybe as many as 20 republican senators who believe that we have a vshaped recovery which of course is what President Trump has been saying. Its the senate that we look to, i think all discussions between secretary mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi have not borne fruit. One of the things i think they havent borne fruit because the republicans simply are not in favor of giving the states money. Speaker flossy wants to give many different businesses and states money because they are all strapped will this matter to that i dont think so i wish it would, i mean, in business i think it would, but not in politics. I feel, david, when i look at these numbers and i look at whats happened to the president , of course, we wish him well, i think that somehow nothing comes together in washington that you would think. Theres not a kind of a sympathetic lets get together, lets stop the war of words. It just doesnt happen like that anymore. No. There seems to be so Little Common ground in so many different areas in our country in terms of meeting the key challenges that we face, whether it be right in front of us in terms of more aid or whether it be longerterm challenges as well, jim. Regardless of the outcome of this election i think there are many people who believe its going to be very difficult for us to meet those challenges unless we do find common ground. This is a perfect example, the inability to come to some sort of agreement here that would provide some level of assistance, not just to Small Businesses as you pointed out so many times, but to states and municipalities that are suffering greatly as a result of the pandemic. Carl, the numbers are pretty obvious here we have the employment numbers and whether there are people who say, listen, it shows continued but slow choppy recovery in september 19. 4 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic those are the people that you would think the u. S. Government would protect through no fault of their own they have lost their jobs and those jobs arent coming back because of the pandemic. We now see how this is a shocking week, whether it be the nfl, i dont want to conflate the president with the nfl, but the fact is how easy it was for the nfl and the titans to get it, and then how terrible it is that the president got it. But a recognition that if you try to reopen the economy aggressively without masks, without more disciplined social distancing, its going to fail and i think that thats really the ultimate take away of what happened with the president being infected by covid. Right you do have now 16 states, jim, with positivity rates of 10 plus and thats up from 12 states just last week and then, jim, you know, were seeing a lot of projections about job losses, whether its from the Hotel Industry association or some officials in new york city talking about half of new York City Restaurants going away so i guess at this point if the complaint with this heroes light bill is that its got too much filler, how much are you willing to tolerate to get the money that actually is necessary if you think theres a difference well, i think that its time, it would be fabulous if the president used the moment to say now i see what this is like, we have to help these companies im closing my restaurants im closing them in ten days why . Well, because permanently im moth balling them when we get a vaccine i will open i will pay my rent at both places. You will pay your rent in the interim or you will pay your rent when you no, in the interim. Really . Youre going to continue to pay rent. I could turn the keys over to the landlord. Why not just negotiate some sort of a deal with your landlord the way so many other people at least have tried to to see if you can get some reduction that potentially you could pay back in the far end of it because my landlord might watch this show and you just lost all my leverage really . You did. You are the one who said youre going to pay, not me. Never mind. I dont mean to bargain with my landlord on squawk on the street, but i thank you, david. Look, the economics, we were hoping for 50 , 50 you could possibly make it, but the combination of the airflow issues and the fact that we dont have a vaccine, we just have therapeutics, look, we were the last ones that tried it. Theres still a couple that are able to that have lots of outdoor space, but we are so not alone. I think about 50 of the people in our same situation, carl. Were thinking about your business. We were profitable seven years. Yeah. Seven years done which is a feat in that business. Thank you. Even in normal times. Thank you jim, were going to keep our eyes open for headlines about the president s condition, obviously were all hoping that his health is unaffected, and when we might see him next lets turn to eamon javers this morning. Good morning, carl. At this hour we have a massive effort inside the u. S. Government and the american political system to Contact Trace and find out just how far the virus has spread among Senior Administration officials and senior political officials in the United States joe biden has tweeted has put out information that he and his staff are now going to be tested today. All the officials who were at the event on tuesday, the debate on tuesday in cleveland, will now receive tests for the coronavirus presumably we should have the results of that later on today those tests can be turned around fairly quickly the Vice President has now testeds negative for covid19 and the second lady also testing negative for covid19. The Vice President s press secretary tweeting that he remains in good health and wishes the trumps well in their recovery to give you a sense of the scale of the effort now that is taking place, we look at the travel that the president has engaged in just over the past week or so, he has been hopscotching the country going to political Battle Ground states, he has conducted a rally in pennsylvania, he held a Supreme Court nomination ceremony at the white house over the weekend, he had a reception for gold star families, he had a photo op in washington and a presser on covid testing on tuesday he was in ohio for that president ial debate. He had a fundraiser in minnesota and a rally in minnesota, at which quite a number of people did not wear masks, that was on wednesday. Yesterday he was in new jersey for a round table and a fundraiser with supporters there. So a lot of people have now come in contact with the president. Hes been traveling on air force one, all of that backing and forthing is going to have to be traced now to figure out how far this virus has gotten inside the u. S. Government. And you look at just hope hicks, just take one official, we learned that she, a close president ial campaign aide, tested positive last night according to a report that first broke yesterday evening. Look at the officials that she alone has been in contact with, its just about every Senior Administration official, more than 20 folks have been seen in contact with hope hicks over the past little while, just in terms of her travel. Often photographed without a mask here is the tweet from joe biden saying jill and i send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a swift recovery we will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family so a massive, massive effort now, guys, to figure out exactly how far this has gotten, how many senior officials have contracted the coronavirus and whether anyone in the biden camp has contracted it as well because, of course, they were on stage and in the venue on tuesday in ohio, guys, back over to you eamon, as youre talking a lot of headlines still crossing, one is from an aide to the head of the judiciary, lindsey graham, that hearings on judge barrett will continue. Then mcconnell here saying that a remote president ial debate remains an option, of course, we have a vp debate in five days. Yeah, look, i mean, that vp debate will be fascinating, thats scheduled for wednesday so far we have not heard from Kamala Harris yet as to her status, presumably she has not been exposed to this with anywhere near the degree that the Vice President might have been in proximity to it, but we will wait for her statement as well and then in terms of the Supreme Court nomination, you are going to have to figure out what exposure Amy Coney Barrett had herself because she was with the president on saturday and then any of the senators that shes been interacting with. So thats another piece of this thatsgoing to have to be pinned down in that massive Contact Tracing effort thats undergoing right now in washington you can imagine that Mitch Mcconnell, this is the political project of Mitch Mcconnells life is to make sure that there are a number of conservatives on the Supreme Court, as many conservatives as he can get on the Supreme Court. This is not going to stop that process from happening i dont think. Yz a world in which its possible to get her associated in that mcconnell doesnt take the opportunity to do that the request he is whether or not she herself would become sick and we dont know the answer to that or any of the senators responsible for shepherding it, that could be a difficulty for executing this before the election then in terms of the debate, its going to depend on the health of the candidates, a virtual debate as weve seen now this report from the New York Times suggesting that the president is experiencing covid symptoms, things like fatigue, you know, you just dont want to go into a debate if you are not 100 they are difficult under any circumstances, particularly a virtual one where things get awkward and then particularly if youre having health issues. We will have to wait and see on that one. Eamon, there is a big dispute in the senate about how strong the economy is there are a lot of people in the senate, republicans, who believe we have a vshaped recovery and its going pretty well i dont know if these numbers this morning will influence them how do you convince someone who agrees with the president that there is a vshaped recovery that there is an lshaped recovery and there are people who need help . Well, look, the president is the person who can do that with Senate Republicans the president has every political incentive and its been a head scratcher through this entire process why the president is not out there twisting arms of reluctant republican senators to go along with the stimulus before the reelect. Why would you the president is adamant that the economy is very strong why would you twist an arm just say, listen, its not really strong. Tell people in one place that its not strong and then go public and say it is strong. The politics the politics of getting cash into voters hands before an election are pretty clear, jim. So that would work to the president s advantage even if he said its strong but we need to just make sure, lets make sure we pass this, thats an argument that Senate Republicans would listen to from him they have been convinced of a lot of things by this president , that they didnt necessarily agree with before he was elected, they could certainly be convinced of that. He hasnt taken that leadership because he hasnt seen it for whatever reason as crucial to his own reelection, as crucial for the country and the economic recovery the president simply decided not to push for that and thats part of the reason why were here the other reason, of course, is that nancy pelosi is holding out for a better deal. She feels that the numbers that are offered by the republicans are simply not high enough and not recognizing the scale of the catastrophe and thats why we have this gulf between the two parties. One interesting, you know, possible second order effect of this president ial diagnosis now is that because the spotlight now swings to the white house and health issues, does that take some of the political pressure of Steven Mnuchin and nancy pelosi who might be able to quietly cut a deal while the attention is focused somewhere else. Yeah, but they still need Mitch Mcconnell to sign off on any deal. They do. They can get to where they want. Thats right. Back to the health questions, though im curious, you know, listen, we know at this point having followed closely this virus for many months now it is unpredictable, even for people in a highrisk category that the president would seem to be given his age and his weight it can have virtually no impact on some people and obviously others it hits very hard what are the protocols by which we can expect the white house to operate under here in terms of keeping the American Public informed of his health well, you know, we dont know they put out the Statement Last night from the physician and thats all weve gotten so far there is no official plan for informing the public of the president s health status. The white house will do that as it sees fit and as it responds to public pressure to know more about what the president is experiencing here. At this point we dont know. I talked to a former Senior Administration official overnight about what was the covid plan inside the white house if the president was diagnosed. They strategize all of this stuff in advance the official told me that the plan was to have the president holed up in the residence, the living quarters, minimize all staff contact to him so just the bare minimum of staff having contact with him and of course the medical officials who would monitor his situation very closely and ride it out as if it was similar to the flu that was the plan going into this now, all plans change, you know, when events change so we will see if that holds, if the president travels or if the president stays inside the residence, but they were planning on just limiting staff contact, having him ride it out in the residence and monitor with the medical team who would reach out to outside experts for any Additional Support that they might need in terms of the most advanced cutting edge thinking on the virus. Eamon, thank you. Obviously our eyes are peels for further developments and information about the condition of the president and the staff at the white house and the Vice President as well. Eamon javers jim, what does it do to the conversation we would have had this morning about how the market has been able to at least start to climb above the 50day and sort of reestablish itself on some Technical Levels what i call this is the v stock market versus the l economy and the v stock market includes most of the large tech companies, many which are down right now, but i think could rally. The semiconductors, lots of positive chatter about those, these are ones that are involving secular change, particularly 5g. We remain steadfast with the idea that people stay at home to work, anything that works like that other than the recession stocks because the stock market has ruled out a recession if you look at the way that a General Mills is starting to act, campbells started to act, Constellation Brands worked yesterday and the way conagra did. I dont want to ever say that its business as usual because then i will be viewed as being a callous individual but i do believe there will be many stocks that will initially go down like a tesla, by the way, we had deliveries that were better than expected and then they can rally i think that can be like a ford motor where i believe that the numbers are going to come in better and i would be looking to buy Something Like that. We didnt talk about the jobs number really at all, did we, jim . The jobs number powell is not going to do anything the president is going to say the numbers are strong. The Unemployment Rate falls below 8 , with he did not add quite as many as had been anticipated in terms of jobs im looking at something from our friend peter in terms of what hes calling a negative the continued rise in permanent job losers, he does point out the stat can read badly but you hope with a dynamic economy that changes. 3. 57 million permanent job losers, as high as may of 2013. Thats the l economy. This is a walmart economy. Walmart can withstand this walmart is putting a lot of companies out of business. Look, i had Bed Bath Beyond on last night, theyre going to be able to survive because they have new management. Amazon this is the amazon this is the death star, david. Its really at work. Thats why all of the Ecommerce Companies are doing so well. It is not a good time unless you have a gigantic Balance Sheet or youre somebody like eric repair who is so good that you can stay open with the quarter of your tables, unless you want to be in florida, david do you want to go there right now where its 100 open im happy here. Near you i want to be near you. Wherever you are, jim, im close by, but not any closer than 30 feet. Thats exactly right. Not indoors. Guys, we will take a break here futures are obviously weak, a lot of news still headed our way, although gains for the week may be intact,ven th ewi these losses back in a moment i cant believe it. What . That our new house is haunted by casper the friendly ghost . Hey jill hey kurt movies . Ill get snacks no, i cant believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on our Car Insurance with geico. I got snacks ohhh, i got popcorn, i got caramel corn, i got kettle corn. Am i chewing too loud . Believe it geico could save you fifteen percent or more on Car Insurance. Can go your own way its time you make the rules. So join the two Million People whove switched to xfinity mobile. You can choose from the latest phones or bring your own devic, and choose the amount of data thats right for you to save even more. And youll get 5g at no extra cost all on the most reliable network. So choose a data option thats right for you. Get 5g included. And save up to 400 yr on the network rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Amazon announcing more than 19,000 of its workers have tested positive for the coronavirus over the last six months but the company says thats fewer cases than it expected based on the infection rate of the general population amazon is ramping up its testing and expects to be conducting 50,000 tests a day by the end of november that caught my attention, jim, 50,000 a day we are talking about they have where are they in employees . They have added so fast they may be at a million, im not sure, i dont want to use a number because they have had adding so many employees so quickly, but thats a pretty impressive potential for daily tests. They must have a giant number of pcr machines which are the ones that are most accurate, this he could be using the shorter term instant tests we see from abbott which is the one the president suggests, but there is a service a company this week, just got a vofl, vizby medical, they have a handheld pcr machine, onetime only, you throw it away, instant, within a half hour. Its going to be, i believe, the standard if we have enough of them visby. Its a remarkable device and its been so necessary which is handheld pcr because Everybody Knows that pcr is better than any instant test i know that the if visby medical had been used in the tennessee titan locker room before the game that would not have happened. Some people want is a lie have a, some people want nose swabs the ones that we know are now im not saying theyre criminal but its ridiculous to wait seven days these ones that wait five and seven days, thats a joke on our country and the fda should have said, listen, we are not going to allow it. Youmean for results. Yeah. Look, thats the period as dr. Gottlieb would say where you have the viral load that you can give it to anybody you want. How we got to the point where someone thinks that that was the right way to go, which is you send it to a lab and it comes back and you find out. David, i know youre making faces what do you mean im making faces . Snurp making a face. Im always making faces. Youre a face maker. Its something i do i do think that this whole incident including bedminster calls into question about what youre supposed to be doing youre talking now about the president s decision to go a fundraiser maskless i believe at one of his clubs. Lets just call that ill advised. You certainly hope that he did not expose other people in attendance to the virus and or that they didnt get it. He very well may have been active with it at that point. They better get in touch with roche, thermo fisher, because they need testes 50,000 tests a day from amazon at the end of november would be a positive as would continuing increases in testing overall nationally as we try to identify as quickly as we can what people have it. Right and some standards between that was one of amazons complaints in their blog that there is no sort of set standard on how companies are supposed to handle this at scale a quick break. Opening bell in seven minutes. Take a look at futures here. Testing negative this morning, the Vice President and the treasury secretary, now Speaker Pelosi on msnbc says she was tested this morning and is awaiting results we will get the opening bell after a short break. We made usaa insurance for members like martin. An air force veteran made of doing whats right, not whats easy. So when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. Thats how you do it right. Usaa insurance is made just the way martins family needs it with hasslefree claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. Because doing right by our members, thats whats right. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa i cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Network Needs a 5g device. Now everyone including existing customers can get a free Samsung Galaxy note20 after tradein. Welcome back busy morning of course, jobs number, a lot of other news, but that doesnt stop us from getting to a mad dash. Twilio. Twilio pre announced an unbelievably great number at an analyst number far better than expected this is how you do next gen customer engagement. It allows you to be able to change your menu, do whatever you want online or also answer lyft when you send a message to pick up a lyft that is routed through twilio its an amazing company. Really incredible company. Jeff lawson owns it, he is the ceo. David, if this stock stays up then tech is going to turn around which is twilio is viewed as an important bellwether. We have had lawson on a number of times and i know you have as well. Im fond of jeff. There was a hiccup there because they lost a number of customers. I remember that. They appointed the former ceo of General Electric as the chairman and ever since then the stock has gone up. 38 billion market cap. Carl, happy friday if we can call it that david, lets get the opening bell opposed breadth is weak. Jim, the speaker on ms this morning, as we said during the break, waiting for results on her own test, but she adds that she and the treasury secretary are, quote, coming to terms on the price tag. They still have to deal with language in the bill which has not been an insignificant hurdle so far. Well, look, anything that can make it so that that permanent number is down look, secretary mnuchin said over and over and over again we have to have Business Interruption insurance. Those people have to have helped it was no fault of their own Speaker Pelosi completely agrees it is, as david you know, the states as the Sticking Point strapped states have not so far been on the president s radar screen as something that you should necessarily bail out. No, he seems to think that its only blue states, those states that conceivably would not support him and therefore he doesnt seem supportive of helping them, but thats far from clear there are plenty of other states, in fact, that we would call the red states that are also suffering. Right. And there are plenty of cut backs planned across the board, whether it be in things like sanitation, firefighting, police, you name it from states that are facing significant budget deficits as a result of tax revenues not coming in anywhere near where they expected because of the pandemic and the business shutdowns that have been associated with it. I think if you felt that the pandemic was going to come to an end or go away and then you see numbers that you have decided are strong and then you have substantial numbers of republican senators who side with the president , then i think its hard its harder to get a deal done because you dont know how many people secretary mnuchin can deliver. Carl, there is a lot of republicans who think that the economy is great, will not think that this number is bad, they will think that this number is a low Getting Better economy, maybe they will look at housing, whatever the only glaring one is airlines and i think its very hard to say, do you know what, the economy is terrible, boy, are these numbers great. You cant, its either oxymoronic or you could call it antithetical. Sure. If we had look, if we have let me say if we had mcconnell on right now, okay, senator mcconnell on and he said, do you know what, we need this, it would be done in ten minutes. Ten minutes. That would be it thats true. Its Mitch Mcconnell. Although to your point, jim, he has clearly not said that by the way, as were talking the times now reports that the chair of the rnc, rona mcdaniel, has tested positive. Oh, geez. On the flip side were getting word, guys, from the white house that ivanka trump and Jared Kushner were tested again today and both are negative so this is going to be basically just a table now that were going to start to if i will in in terms of white house staff. Look, all this depends we have to find out what tests theyre taking one of the things that we learned from the tennessee titan experience in the nfl is that theres five days that theres definitely a period where you just you were tested saturday and you were fine, the titans, okay then they didnt test sunday, they tested monday, a bunch of them were found to have the viral load tested tuesday, again. Tested wednesday, each time someone new came up with it. The idea that anyone is all clear is as stupid as what the nfl said there is no all clear. Okay at least until you go to five, six days, you have to keep testing every day. The nfl was under the impression instantly although Bio Reference Lab didnt say this, that, do you know what, everybody that has tested positive is done, but, no. You have to test every day and the idea that anyone thinks they are all clear right now who was at bedminster, you are fooling yourself as someone who has been in quarantine, youve got to test every day. And i think people are being very unrealistic that theyre all clear. The titans werent all clear and the nfl is the most powerful corporation in america and they cant they could not make it so that they were all clear day one or two its foolhardy. But the market reaction, im just curious, i mean, what obviously it adds uncertainty to a lot of different things. Does it make sense to you . No, you buy you buy. How many of these companies are really dependent upon the look, you cant buy the banks. They need the thats a direct reference. Right. But lets say you get no stimulus, okay can i tell you that costco could go to 400 with no stimulus its at 352. Home depot, 275, go 300. Because who are the companies that are permanently closing which ones what kind of Balance Sheet does the small Hardware Store have . Right. I can tell you, its a Balance Sheet that lets you have a month without receipts, two months, no but lowes, theyre killing it right youve made that point so in your mind the selloff which seems to be related in part to obviously the president s having the president having the virus and i guess the idea that, well, i dont even know what it means for the stimulus talks does it enhance it or not enhance it weve come back to mcconnell being the key person he doesnt have it. Speaker pelosi is saying nicer things, but theyve been saying nice things all along theyve been talking and talking and talking or fiddling, depending upon if you want to go with that analogy, twilio is up 18, tesla had better deliveries than expected. You would think that the tesslanians, do you think they ever going to let that stock be down 20 . They are looking at this thing as one of the great buying opportunities because it has nothing to do with the president or stimulus. What happens to this market is cooler heads prevail and say we have to buy tech why . Because tech has secular reasons that are only increased by the president because now people can sell jamie dimon, hey, do you think im going back to work if the president caught it you know, the titans caught it no, im staying at home, you know, buy me another zoom so you can do two zooms no, thats the question how does this change the Consumer Mindset how does this change the mindset of governors who have supported relaxing these lockdown restrictions jim, how does it change the dynamic on stimulus talks . Pelosi now saying that the diagnosis of the president does change the dynamic in those negotiations because she believes they will find a path. Thats very positive. She said we will get something someone. Thats very positive. Id love to hear it from secretary mnuchin. Id really love to hear it from the president via zoom, id love to hear it from Mitch Mcconnell. Look, if you want to parse that, the speaker has moved. Thats a more positive, positive view, and i think that that would be welcome for all the people who are never going to get their job back in the meantime, buy service now, buy zoom video, buy some splunk, buy tesla. Something else thats getting bought a little bit are asset managers, you may have seen t its confirmed obviously by sec filings, tryian, has been busy, nelson pell said garden most recently showing up in shares of our Parent Company comcast, we talked about that last week. The latest story is they own significant stakes in two asset managers, they are not particularly large but the idea is, hey, maybe we can bring about some consolidation here. Invesco and Janice Henderson are the two names and both are up. Janis is up a lot more percentage wise right now. Fee pressure, the rise of etfs, the rise of indexing, the lack for these active managers to actually extract fees. Thats the story and so youve got to look for all sorts of efficiencies and that would seem to be the argument here. No word, by the way, from tryian itself other than in the what i have, i havent heard anything. David, do you think that theyre being careful with 9. 9 in the sense that if you go over 10 for some Financial Institutions yes. The Financial Institutions can complain to the government i think so and also, you know, again, dollarwise, i mean, not insignificant, but what are we talking about here i mean, for invesco about 400 million bucks and for Janus Henderson similar, right around the name, 380 million. Thats sort of what theyre doing. By the way, i do have a statement from Janus Henderson, the Company Notes it only heard from trian on thursday regarding its investment and i truncated it, they say they approximate continue to make significant progress and are committed to delivering meaningless value for shareholders we will keep a close eye on this one shoo Speaker Pelosi still saying positive comments david, one thing i would say is that when nelson pellis took the comcast position, by no means did he ever articulate anything like this. He just bought the stock. No. No and remember from that day i had a lot of questions about it. Right. Key one being 33. 5 which is the voting control that the Roberts Family has in the company, but on this one and they have played in this area before as you know in terms of asset managers, its interesting that trian knows well. You need scale. And nobody is going to approach blackrock in terms of the size but you can keep trying. Blackrock is an incredible outfit because they have had such fee pressure and yet they have to deliver quality numbers. Larry fink is an amazing mana r manager. You have to have your hats off to him at all times. Carl, i see this undercurrent which says how many does this news really hurt and then they throw this service now, i mentioned service now, Bill Mcdermott, there is a fabulous piece today saying that Bill Mcdermott is crushing it, getting all these federal contracts so thats another stock to watch because no one is going to say, do you know what, because of this i shouldnt own service now. They are looking at it and saying, service now, i got a chance to buy it, i would never get it otherwise because there are growth hounds who have been waiting to pounce and theyre getting their opportunity and theyre not thinking about covid, they are not thinking about anything other than the fact that these companies thrive in a covid environment and when you read that in a lot of research you see who thrives in a covid environment . People just when they see Something Like this news they say, wow, lets go buy those they are not looking at the employment number, they are not looking at the pcr tests of the president , they are just saying, chance, chance to buy. Youre right. Peloton record high here. There you go. 107. 30. A lot of the gainers here, the cloroxs of the world, reminds me of your interview with conagra which is one of the s p leaders today and the ceo did tell you that, you know, eating at home is a trend that is going to continue even with Household Budgets stretched. There was a kind of other worldly nature that was a great quarter and sean conley came on the show and showed you a charts of office space. Showed you charts that include peloton, that included netflix and he just said, listen, if you want to know what our business is doing, these are the things, you have to gauge peloton. As long as peloton sales are going up, were going to continue to do well. They do both lunch and dinner and the stock was down and i was plus they raised the dividend back to above where it was before where they cut it both sean and i off camera were marveling about how the market just sometimes just gets it wrong and conagra had a really great quarter, far better than expected and the market is catching up to that. One that also the people should watch is Constellation Brands. I mean, that stock was down 4. They had monster good quarter. 50 of the bars were closed and they did unbelievably well why . Because inhome drinking, david, i dont know, this may be we said the other day you are a teetotaler. You said when it came to consumer, dont knock on my hobbies now. Inhome drinking, david has spiked to a level that you really i mean, thats off the charts when it comes to beer nothing wrong with modello number 3 and the consumption of liquor in this country is as high as its been. Its been very stressful time and thats how some People Choose to deal with it carl, i dont know about you, i only have a small handful of drinks. What, during breakfast . Auto. Small handful, usually both hands. I used to brush my teeth with a bottle of jack when i was a young reporter covering homicide. You were young. I got off my shift at 7 00 a. M. Okay . Who else wouldnt brush their teeth with a bottle of jack when youre done working 7 00 a. M. . Cue the music here. As were talking cbs and nbc and reuters saying that Vice President canada harris has tested negative, were going to watch that as for the speaker, she did sort of address this general story today and the risk of rising infection in washington on msnbc. Take a listen. Its very sad, but it also is something that, again, going into crowds unmasked and all the rest was sort of a brazen invitation for Something Like this to happen sad that it did, but nonetheless hopeful that it will be a transition to a saner approach to what this virus is all about. Jim sort of echoing what you said before the top of the show. Ive been working on this Mask Initiative with ex prize, ex prize. Org mask its a project to try to get 15 to 24 year olds to design masks. The hundreds of teams have gotten together to build masks, young people, because they are convinced that its the only real way that we have to stop this, but theres been one person who has ridiculed people who wear masks, its the president of the United States, and he has been a principal obstacle i dont mind saying that because, well, when i spent all this money to try to get this mask done, its done as a charity, public service, over and over again with all the people i deal with the issue has been the president because the president has sowed so much belief that they dont help that you just constantly run into that, even though theres just irrefutable proof everywhere, especially aerosol which is the problem in restaurants, in hotels, inside, aerosol, which is like tobacco smoke, if you smell it youre going to getit its like that right guys, in the meantime, back to 3350 as we have cut the s ps initial losses in half lets get to bob pisani this morning. Hey, bob. Quite an interesting move at the open and i think this is largely because ms. Pelosi has been making comments that are positive for the stimulus. I just want to show you and we opened at 3323, carl, youre absolutely right, this is quite a move up just in a few minutes. Overnight on the futures, do you see how fast things react. Just before 12 50 a. M. Eastern time is when we got the news and we dropped 50 points in ten minutes and in very quick stair step declines, about ten points each, down, down, down, this suggests art cashins comments that there are sell stops just below the market that are very, very tight and they will sell, they hit one level, they will sell and then they find a level down about 50 points below that. What else is going on here you see that move up here just since the open, nice move up since the open, i believe that is primarily on the comments made on stimulus so the question is does this news about the president materially change the prospects for stimulus why the obsession with stimulus . Because stimulus is important because its viewed as offsetting many of the layoffs not just in the airlines but across industries, mifflin announced playoffs today the question is are the chances for a stimulus deal higher today or not pelosi has been talking this morning indicating that the chances may, in fact, be increasing and thats good news. You see the travel and leisure stocks down here today, theyre weak on days when the reopening story is not going well. This happens when theres concerns that another wave of reinfections might owe consider and so what does this mean it suggests to me that the president s diagnosis is raising awareness of concerns of a secondary wave of infections, maybe it will go away in a few days, but thats what the market is saying today, raising awareness of concerns about secondary waves of infections here as for sectors, tough on energy, what day is not tough on energy, but were 5 down on oil, thats leading to the down side, tech is also weak, banks are weak you see more defensive sectors Like Health Care and consumer staples, theyre down, there is a relative outperformance. Mega cap down, but they are well off of it. Apple opened down 3 , its now down a little less than that, 2. 25 as you see right there, and all of these stocks opened down between 1 and 2 and are off of their lows, thats the main story where are we right now the president s illness is now creating even more uncertainty for a market thats got a lot of it already so in terms of the elections i would say we have new uncertainty not uncertainty yesterday, we were talking about the outcome uncertainty, no you we have uncertainty even on the campaign and on the debates if you put up that full screen, as for the stimulus, well, you see this morning, stimulus progress or hopes of it is moving the markets. Thats the primary mover right now for the markets. As for the reopening story, we have layoffs which is not good news but we have it against some good Economic Data earlier in the week and mixed data later in the week on economic front not clear there on the reopening story, treatment of vaccine i would say progress for sure, there are people who have hopes for some phase three trial results maybe in the next few weeks. Where are we how do you make sense of all this we will turn to art cashin our old buddy at ubs he will be on the phone with us 11 00 a. M. Eastern time to sort it out and what it all means for the markets. Carl, back to you. All right thank you very much, bob we will talk to you then its one of those odd mornings where the jobs number is take a back seat. Lets get to rick santelli. A back seat in a different sort of way. Lets look at a 24hour chart of tens, there is little doubt in my mind that this report if the president and first lady hadnt contracted covid, and i get all the talk with masks, but if masks were the entire issue they would have caught it before six and a half months, thank yous just me. You see that at 1 00 p. M. Morning where the news came out that was where the rates broke down the flight so safety, pushing price up, pushing the rates down probably would have occurred on the number but this occurred early. Its proof of that that you can see how weve kicked up now that the stock market opened up and opened up much better than many had thought. Of course, art cashin is right, sell stops, protection below the market whats below the market . Sell stops to get out and bids to buy in, but it all happened at night, the night sessions are thin so one should expect that this market would have done that. Look at a one week of tens, here it comes back. It hasnt gone anywhere big on the week the disappointment is that it if he will from higher yields because higher yields are better, they give you a better view of the economy as a whole now, dollar yen is also a fligh safety trade and you can see on a 24hour chart of the dollar yen that at 1 00 a. M. Eastern the dollar took a drop bunds had a niece yield drop at 1 00 eastern time. Whats fascinating is it is now the biggest distance between our yields and their yields, basically since may. But thats the good news the not so good news, make it year to date, and at the beginning of the year, we were at 210 basis points of separation carl, jim, david, back to you, and we still have university of michigan yet to come well see you at the top of the hour, rick thanks well take a break here. All sectors red except for materials which is eking out a gain and the s p is drawn to the 50day at 3362 or so its about 10 points away. I had saved up some money and then found the home of my dreams. But my home of my dreams needed some work sofi was the first lender that even offered a personal loan. I didnt even know that was an option. The personal loan let us renovate our Single Family house into a multiunit home. And i get to live in this Beautiful House with this beautiful kitchen and its all thanks to sofi. And i get to live in this Beautiful House with this seal, this restaurant is committing to higher levels of cleanliness. The expertise that helps keep hospitals clean, is helping keep businesses clean too. Look for the ecolab science certified seal. Lets get to meg this morning to talk about the treatments that might be possible for the president and the first lady along with some of the remarkable news we got on the vaccine front this week. Thats right, carl. You know, there arent a lot of options for the coronavirus, but everybody says that the options are a lot better now than they were six months ago. Lets look at what the nih treatment guidelines for the coronavirus say. Essentially remdesivir, gileads drug as emergency use authorization. Right now it is recommended just for hospitalized patients. But experts telling us this drug could make sense early in the course of disease and could be used for the president and first lady steroids proven useful but only in the later course of disease thats only recommended for people who require oxygen. Much more severe and critical. They recommend against hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine except for the use of Clinical Trials the president because of his age and because his bmi is slightly over 30 is at higher risk from potential severe disease here. There are also antibody drugs those especially early in the antibody drugs we did see positive results on just this week and earlier from eli lilly, but these are experimental as well we also have to tell you about the testing being used at the white house. Corey lewandowski, former Campaign Manager was on the today show talking about recently receiving a test. Heres what he said. When you go to the white house, you receive the abbott lab, a 15minute test. They notify if you test positive when i was at the white house on saturday, i was notified that i did not have covid19. Again, on wednesday when i was with the president , i was tested immediately before seeing him. It took about 30 minutes i was notified i was negative for that out of an abundance of caution, i think everybody who has been around the president and the senior staff will be selfisolating no comment yet from abbott this morning back over to you, carl all right thank you very much. Jim, theres all of that news in addition to some of the commentary we got from both pfizer and moderna this week about the timing of an eventual vaccine. This is a question of two arms an arm thats pla see baa and an arm that has it and you have to go to places that are hot. It doesnt do any good to go to places that arent it takes long tore find out if its working this is a question of not being bullied and saying its all clear. If you dont have people in an exposed area, its going to look like the vaccine works what good is that . So they have to take their time, hopefully first quarter. First quarter would be i think that would be fine and remember, once again, like the titans, youre not clear you can claim youre clear, but youre not five days minimum before you can say you might be clear jim saying two more titans players tested positive today. Thats right. Bioreference said thats going to happen. No one is listening to the guys who do the tests yep well see you tonight, jim have a good weekend. Well take a break here. Dow session low down 434 off a level. Dont go anywhere. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with david faber and leslie picker. The red of the rnc and the president and first lady test positive for coronavirus now consumer sentiment, rick remember, what were doing is putting the final tombstone on september. The reads from were looking against compared to mid month reads, we tossed them. 78. 9 becomes 8 0. 4 for michigan september final. Thats the best read really since precoronavirus or right at coronavirus. Best read since march. One is at 89. 1 lets go through the internals 87. 8 replaces the Current Conditions 73. 5 on expectations inflation side, the short version, oneyear gets hotter. 2. 6 now. Stands at 2. 7. If you look at the long view five to seven it goes up from 2. 6 to 20. 8 2. 7. These are a bit light. You can see if you look at the sequentially, lighter than the 6. 5 headline number last time durables, Like University of michigan, these are finals but these are final august numbers. Theyre older. They replace the mid month so we move from up. 4 on the headline to up. 5 excuse me. Its factory orders. This stuff is moving so fast durable goods up. 5. Up. 6 versus. 4. If you remove transportation and cap can tall good orders, a proxy for Capital Spending improved by. 1 and shipments remain constant at 1. 5. Lots of data points, but suffice it to say the jobs report was todays big disappointment carl, back to you. All right rick, thank you. Rick santelli. Markets trying to digest how the president s diagnosis is going to affect stimulus, the election, the debates. Good morning. Were definitely in unchartered territory in terms of a virus hitting with all these important agenda items on the plate in washington were getting a clearer picture now of how far the virus has penetrated or not penetrated the chain of command here in washington d. C starting the list with the president of the United States, of course, himself, tweeting last night he and the first lady tested positive. The president is positive. Mike pence said he has tested negative this morning. The speaker of the house says she has requested a test that result is pending joe biden, the democratic nominee for president is being tested today along with his staff because of their contact with the trump team on tuesday their results now are pending as well Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary has tested negative this morning and the chair of the rnc, the Republican National committee has tweeted she has tested positive so we are seeing a wider circle now of officials who are testing positive, but a lot of key people in this chain of command also are testing negative this morning as well. Thats reassuring for them their families and the country one thing to bear in mind in all of this is the danger here in this reporting is there can be false positives and false negatives with some of the tests. Well have to monitor the officials and watch for the spread over a period of days, and well bring you more information as soon as we have it throughout the day here in washington d. C back over to you thank you as you can see, all three major indexes are in the red in the meantime the Labor Department reporting a smaller than expected jobs report this morning. A miss on the jobs report suggesting slower momentum in the economy and raising fears about maybe worse to come in october. Here are the numbers nonfarm payrolls up. The Unemployment Rate declining to 7. 9 . The Labor Department saying had all the workers been correctly classified, it would have been. 1 higher and the Labor Force Participation rate declining as more people left the workplace fiscal stimulus from early spring is waning and some businesses have decided they can no longer hold out leading to recently announced layoffs from large corporations like American Energy companies and disney as well those layoffs not counted in this report. But leading to commentary from pantheon where they said november fading. October weaker the slowdown from 1. 02 august reading is merely a hint of what is likely coming in october. And an economist at oxford writes job growth is moderating just as fiscal growth is waning. The private sector there were widespread job gains offset by a loss in government heres where the jobs were leisure and hospitality getting back chunks of what they lost. Down retail did well. The doctors offices opened more health care up 107,000 manufacturing has done well on the rebound here up 66,000. And the big chunk you can see there of government job losses, 216,000, coming from local education jobs where there might have been some seasonal affects but also layoffs in that sector. The keys to the next report are going to be whether or not the virus will spread further leading to renewed shutdowns and whether additional fiscal stimulus works outinto the economy to give business hope before they shut down for good theres certainly a lot to digest a lot of moving parts. Thank you for bringing that to us the jobs number and the president s diagnosis bringing stocks lower this morning. We have a chief global strategist along with a chief economist. Thank you for joining us diane, i want to start with you. You have these compounding forces this morning on one hand that weak eer than expected jobs report that steve digested a reminder that shutting down the economy again could provide even more pain in this economy, and then on the other hand, you have the president and some other people in washington testing positive against the backdrop of rising cases which is a reminder that the virus itself has not been suppressed stocks seem to be reading both of these as negative well, i think the most important issue is the course of the virus determines the course of the economy we know behavior is the dominant factor that forces people to pull back, particularly baby boomers at higher risk and the consequences, they pull back when risks of contagion go up. Thats occurred time and time again regardless of lockdowns. Thats a very important lesson to remember right now. That wrestling the virus to its knees is critical to sustaining momentum in the u. S. Economy, and it is really critical also to understand the underlying scarring showing up in the labor market the rate for permanent unemployed went up the number fallen out of the labor force since february went up to 4. 4 million to those no longer participating in the labor force. If we added those, the unemployment would be north of 9 thats important during the month to Month Movement in participation, we saw the decline there in the number of black men and Hispanic Women that are no longer participating. Whites are being hired back more prapdly than blacks are being called back. Thats inequality. Those are things that are sort of fractures in our foundation, and really underscore the need for additional aid now with the slowing pace of job improvements even leisure and hospitality which showed an improvement in the month, that was a bit of a head fake. The seasonal adjustment factors boosted what was actually a not seasonally adjusted decline in the data this is a time of year when most places are starting to lay workers off in leisure and hospitality as the end of the Holiday Season from the summer comes down we saw a head fake and were going to see head winds moving into cooler temperatures and its harder for indoor venues to operate in the fall. And david, in the meantime, your colleague at the Jpmorgan International private bank said today in bloomberg that the market move is less about the election, more about the possibility that the u. S. President might become incapacitated and the uncertainty surrounding that is this a tell risk that is suddenly becoming an increasing possibility . How should investors be digesting this news today . I think there is some tail risk, but i we have to keep this in proportion. The president is older in a High Risk Group were talking about a very low probability that he would be ib kp inkps tated or something worth most likely the president is inaugurated on january 20th without a problem. I agree with diane it just underscoresthat were not going to get back to normal until we control the virus, and what we need is a National Unified campaign to wear masks, to reduce the spread of this, because what its doing is if you look at things like the Airline Industry, were down 70 in terms of travel, and when you have news like this, its going to for a lot of people its going to say its not safe to go back to restaurants. Its not safe to travel. We really cant get pack to normal until we do that. And we need more progress. I mean, its kind of like were halfway home on a long journey, but were running out of gas and were still 10 million jobs short of where we were in february we need to control this virus and be serious as a nation in a unified way in doing that or were not going to make progress in the issues. David, unclear where things stand in terms of talks between treasury secretary mnuchin, Mitch Mcconnell, Speaker Pelosi. I cant give you a sense of whether were going to get more aid. Do you think we need it, david i do think we need it obviously id like to see something before the election. I am confident well get something after the election unfortunately like Everything Else, our political game is being played but we need to find ways of supporting the economy that means supporting workers laid off in industries that arent going to hire them and supporting Small Businesses. Theres so many Small Business owners seeing their life savings being wiped out. We have so support them and state and local governments. The layoffs in education, they may have more to do with the virus than finances in the state and local government sector, but thats going to be a problem we have to support the sectors of the economy so we can prevent more damage being done while the doctors and the medical Institute Work on a vaccine to help us get out of this. Diane, we keep hearing that this recession is different because its services led, and this week alone the ism manufacturing numbers whether its new orders or prices paid or the employment index, were not constructive how much wood can manufacturing chop from here on . Well, were still down more than 600,000 jobs in manufacturing from february. So even in manufacturing, where it hasnt been hit as hard as the Service Sector, we are starting to see some of those affects. Also weve seen the announcements for furloughs turning into permanent layoffs barring additional aid by the federal government in places like the Airline Industry and thats going to get into higher wage workers as well that gets into the issue that were concerned about that what was once considered a shortterm transitory event by many hopeful particularly in financial markets, this is looking like it could become something thats much more worry sosomeand long lasting that could have impacts on the manufacturing sectors setting back sectors that had recovered already, or those who had escaped the worst of the pain also getting in i think theres a false sense of security for those who work from home who have not seen layups in person even though there have been layoffs in every sector thats given us a sheltered view of whats going on and this is predominantly a low wage Service Sector recession. It could turn into something that has more longterm effects that casts a longer shadow from covid on the overall economy. David mentioned the need for aid in all the places. I agree with him 100 . It was state and local governments that the head wind of that helped to contribute to the sub par employment recovery by not prfring money to the state and local government after the 2008, twine crisis that hurt our recovery from that crisis we dont want to repeat those mistakes at this stage of the game we want to make sure that we get as much as possible to provide a safety yet for the u. S. Economy thats been hit by something through no fault of their own. Businesses and households are being hit extremely hard, but also state and local governments have been hit, and any way you cut it, theres going to be a major short fall. Ideologies the old rules of gravity do not apply. This situation is unique, and we need to intervene and throw away the ideologies about recessions and what theyre about and not let this turn into something worse. A meteor hitting the global economy. Certainly a lot to look into today with the jobs report the final one before the president ial election. Thank you, david, and diane for breaking it down for us. Thanks. As we head to break, the guidelines for how an eventual vaccine will be distributed. Well give you those details next music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. The National Academies of science engineering and medicine formalizing who gets the vaccine first once its approved meg covers all things vaccine related for us meg. Hi, david who gets a vaccine first its the Frontline Health care workers. The final guidelines for Vaccine Distribution coming out from the National Academies today heres how they break it down into essentially four groups first, of course, high risk workers in Health Care First responders phase one b includes high risk individuals with underlying conditions and older adults. Thats going to cover 5 to 10 of the population. Then you get into phase two, about 30 to 35 of the populati population including teachers and school staff and critical workers in high risk settings. Also people in homeless shelters or group homes and all older adults who dont fizz into phase one. For phase three, thats 40 to 45 of the population. Thats young adults, children and workers in Industries Like colleges, universities, hotels, banks, exercise facilities, and factories that they say are important to the function of society and also has a moderately high risk of exposure they put young adults that n that category. They have broader social circles and children even though they are not yet being included in the vaccine trials including them with vaccination is depending on the timing of those data finally phase four covers everybody else we talked with a doctor this morning from yale school of Public Health about how they reached these guidelines we knew from day one we wouldnt have enough vaccine for everyone from the start. We will eventually hopefully get there. So that demands some thinking thats based on science, thats based on bio ethics and other logistic considerations that who comes first . So doing that in a haphazard way is counterproductive doing it with a system and drawing upon previous experiences, previous literature and bio ethics, in epidemiology, et cetera, is the way to go. And guys, two his point about supply, here is what operation warp speed forecasts will be available by the end of 2020 this, of course, all depending on any of these vaccines getting clearance from the fda david . Meg, thank you. Lets bring in director of clom yo University Center for infection and immunity doctor, i guess just start, give me your reflection, so to speak, at least, on the president at this point, what we know he is symptomatic, they say. Mild symptoms. You can conclude hes infected, for sure, because he has symptoms as well as a positive test. And he was probably infectious prior to the time that this diagnosis was made, so there would be concerns about everybody who was part of this party. They should be isolated. They should be tested continuously i was ill with this in march in the middle of the month, and i have to say that the dottiest time is not at the outset. Its a few days in so my thoughts are with them, and i hope he does well. The next question, of course, is if theres anything that people are going to try to do to mitigate his disease weve known for certain that hydroxychloroquine is not effective. This is something which at the time that i was ill i took because there was some thought that it might be the question is whether or not hes going to opt for con ha havelehav plasma right we got the antibodies, the small molecule as well, antivirals, merck is working on that many of them are in phase three. Is it conceivable if well, even if if his condition worsens, we know remdesivir and a number of other things, but is it conceivable they would choose to use them early with mild symptoms i think there will be pressure to do so. One can now get some of these products through compassionate use. And given that hes the leader of the free world, theres going pressure to do this. Im glad that im not in a position to advise him these are difficult decisions to make but im sure he has excellent advisers doctor, its leslie picker here the president and his staff were regularly tested, anyone who came in contact with the president was tested throughout the course of the pandemic thats also a strategy thats being employed by a lot of corporations as they bring more and more employees back to work. What would you advise for various entities using testing as a mechanism of protection is it sufficient in terms of kind of the frequency that they were doing it in the white house, and would you advise more testing . Mask wearing what types of precautions should they have been taking . Well, there are several issues i would say that irrespective of whether or not youre doing frequent testing, and im an advocate of that, one should use a development suspenders approach people should wear masks and physically distance to ensure theres minimal opportunity for transmission of infection. That said, the tests vary a great deal in their sensitivity. At present the most sensitive test we still have are those that are the molecular test. I think thats where we should be focusing. Theres an emphasis on trying to move antigen tests before, and theres concern about some of the tests used by the white house as not being sufficiently robust this may be evidence of that testing alone is not sufficient. Everyone should be masking everyone should be physically distancing and finally, real quick, if i was at the bed minister club was the president was, potentially able to infect people, should i get a test i would and i would get more than one test because the incubation period its not necessarily just going to be one or two days. It could be as far out as 10 to 14 days. So there should be multiple tests done, and during the interim, anyone who thinks they might have had exposure should isolate. Got it. Doctor, thank you for joining us appreciate it. My pleasure now its time for our etf spotlight. Looking att ticker iyw. A filing that expects more Third Quarter revenue than the 401 to 406 million range provided in august shares are up a massive 183 year to date as cloud stocks continue to see a surge in demand due to the pandemic squawk on the street will be right back in two. Stay with us some Companies Still have hr stuck between employeesentering data. A. Changing data. More and more sensitive, personal data. And it doesnt just drag hr down. It drags the entire business down with inefficiency, errors and waste. Its ridiculous. So ridiculous. With paycom, employees enter and manage their own data in a single, easy to use software. Visit paycom. Com, and schedule your demo today. Stocks trimming their losses s p back above the 50day for a moment as both mnuchin and kudlow now are on the tape reiterating the president s symptoms appear to be light at the moment mnuchin saying hell brief him later today about coronavirus stimulus negotiations. Were back after a break welcome back, everyone heres your news update at this hour chi chinas state run media emphasizing how donald trump played down coronavirus until he became infected. The president and first lady have, quote, paid the price, end quote, for not doing more to fight the pandemic Angela Merkel wishing the president and his wife a speedy recovery as she addressed the media. Here at home in new jersey the governor is urging everyone to went to last nights fundraiser with the president to get tested he says Contact Tracing is already underway for the event that was held at the Trump Golf Club in Central New Jersey in california firefighters are using a highway as a fire brake to try to contain the spread of the glass fire it has already burned more than 58,000 acres carl, back to you. Sue, thank you well keep our eyes open for headlines about the president s condition. Along with the white house staff. The jobs number a big story. A disappointment this morning. Jan hatzius is with us to discuss it good morning. I know you were looking for something a little better. Maybe over a million where do you think the difference came between the result in your forecast . We thought it was going to be 1. 1, and that was a disappointing payroll number, and some of it, i think was a somewhat bigger drop in education employment and seasonally adjusted numbers in september than expected, but i think overall it was just broadly somewhat waeaker in othr areas. There are offsets. One is there was a provision of about 150,000 to prior months that needs to be taken into account, and the Household Survey i would say was more mixed on clearly also on the soft side as far as employment is concerned, but we did have from if you just look at the headlines, obviously, a bigger drop in the Unemployment Rate and a bigger drop in the broader underemployment rate so overall, its clearly a softer report. I think its a bit more mixed if you go beyond the payroll number, though right how should investors think about economic scarring, permanent layoffs, and do you think the evidence weve gotten in the past few days about more widespread corporate layoffs is indicative of something larger i think this is a risk. Were still quite deeply in the hole as far as employment is concerned. We have seen some impressive job gain numbers since may, but the truth is that theres still a large amount of underemployment, and some of that, the longer that lasts, the bigger the risk that people drop out of the labor force or move into permanent unemployment and then its harder to rectify that as time passes and as you go into 2021 thats the case for being very st stimyoulative, the reason why the fed has been as aggressive, especially as early on as they were thats a case for providing a way to find more fiscal support. That hangs in the balance. Weve made a downward revision to our Fourth Quarter gdp estimate on the back of reduced probability of a fiscal dpeeal. A lot of it really revolves around the risk of making some of these things more permanent some of this weakness in the labor market to your point, this is leslie, by the way, the weaker jobs report today comes against this backdrop of stimulus talks ongoing. Does this create more of an incentive for lawmakers to come together to come up with something quicker, or do you think we need to see even more weakness in the job market before we can really see more momentum on that front i think the payroll numbers push in that direction if you see less job growth, thats going to make it that much clearer that the economy still needs support. The headline Unemployment Rate was lower than consensus expectations, but you take the broad picture, it should certainly drive home the necessity of still having very expansionary policies and more fiscal support you know, post the expiring of the extra Unemployment Benefits at the end of july you know, obviously these discussions are still ongoing. There is quite a lot of news flow if something happens, it probably has to happen quickly weve going to have to see what emerges from thenegotiations but i think the economic backdrop is one that supports. Todays job report showing weaker state and local government hiring. What do you think should be done on that front . I think that is an aspect of the fiscal support that is needed help for state governments and state and local governments. I mean, thats been one of the areas where the negotiations have focussed. You have quite a lot of difference between the two sides in terms of how much support is needed i think theres general agreement some support is needed but they have not been able to bridge the gap its clear that state and local finances are in very poor shape, and so theres definitely a good case for having more support there. And i think the payroll numbers do support that. A lot of the weakness came in Educational Services so some of this reflects budget issues some of it reflects virus issues and safety issues. A little hard to disentangle but broadly i think its consistent with the idea that state and local finances are in rough shape. Finally, jan, people are wondering this morning whether or not the president s diagnosis changes perception among those who have Decision Making responsibilities in terms of relaxing some of these covid restrictions, because reopening take a backseat now . Is essentially the question. Do you think it does i think its a little too early to tell, and i dont know what the impact is going to be, and i dont really want to necessarily speculate on that. I do think that the fact that we have seen some setbacks in virus control broadly with increases, again, in new cases over the past several weeks has certainly made it a more questionable, how much additional opening were going to see i mean, the there was a lot of opening in sort of the late spring and coming into the summer that had already slowed down somewhat, but i think with a lot of these news events and athink President Trumps diagnosis would be included in that, thats become more something thats more questionable probably. Right volatility obviously is the result at least today. Jan, we appreciate it. Have a good weekend. Thank you for making the time. Thank you very much jan hatzius of goldman sachs. You may recall that big move up during the course of august in many of the faang names it was in Early September the wall street journal reported soft bank went spent as much as 4 billion on calls that may have had the effect of sending some of the stocks up to highs they have not revisited yet. I mention this because derivative sources thing indicated to me that yesterday socalled soft bank whale was back in the market no sign today. But yesterday 200 million spent on call premium. Those are the four names right there that they spent. 1900 calls on netflix in march for 510 or 1200 amazon 1,000 amazon this was largely yesterday morning. No sign of the soft bank whale back in the market today wanted to mention it yesterday things were strong, but certainly during that period in august we saw so many of these stocks including amazon peaking in a lot of the call e buying yesterday seemed focussed on amazon. 20 0 million in a day on premium gets a lot of deskss attention and forces a lot of them as you might expect as well to start getting short. Because they may have to cover as well and you wonder whether there will be a meltup like august again, well watch this closely. Interesting take as well, carl, on soft bank overall what seems to be a change there in terms of investment approach, but, again, a number of sources in the derivative markets on Major Trading desks noting the significant call buying and they all point to soft bank as being behind it. David, it looks like they invested in all of faang except for apple. Is that right . Thats right. Thats the four names ive got theyre all there. No apple Everything Else is what were showing you. Netflix, amazon, facebook, and alphabet not sure how apple figures into their investment think agent this point its something to keep an eye on, especially given the Lessons Learned from august where they were able to ride that momentum upward, move the market. Given their massive positioning in the market. 200 million clearly they are back they see opportunity, although as you mentioned, those four names are trading lower today. It will be interesting to see kind of how that plays out, and whether theyre done 200 million right its not 4 billion which they may have already spent its unclear where a lot of those trades are, whether theyre riding with them or if this is a sign of more to come, which is why we want to let people know about it yep thats good information. And one reason why the tape is as red as it is. We got utilities and materials slightly green this morning as the market is adding a bit to its losses right now vix above 28 well be back in a minute. One corner of the tech world has gone sky high this year. We break down watch to wchat at cnbc. Com more squawk on the street coming up. Chief of staff briefing reporters. As all of you know the president and the first lady tested positive for covid19 they remain in good spirits. The president does have mild symptoms, and as we look to try to make sure that not only his health and safety and welfare is good, we continue to look at that for all of the American People he continues to be in good spirits and energetic. We talked a number of times this morning. I got five or six things he tasked me to do like i do every single morning, and he is certainly wanting to make sure that we stay engaged i think the other thing that is critically important, the doctors continue to monitor both his health and the health of the first lady well continue to do that. Theyll be glad to provide some updates later today as we look at this, but i think the great thing about this president is not only is he staying committed to working very hard on behalf of the American People his first question to me this morning was is how is the economy doing . How are the stimulus talks going on capitol hill . A number of us in the core team of the white house continue to get tested on a daily basis like we are, like we have been, and as we look to that, we were very excited about making sure that not only that the health and safety of the president and the first lady is addressed, but certainly that we address this battle together as a nation together, and the American People can rest assured that we have a president that is not only on the job, will remain on the job, and im optimistic that hell have a quick and speedy recovery reporter how would you describe his symptoms and is he taking hydroxychloroquine . Im not going to get into any particular treatment he may or may not have he has mild symptoms as we look at that. The doctor will continue to provide expertise in the residence. Hes in the residence now. And in true fashion, hes probably critiquing the way that im answering these questions, and i can tell you that a number of us will be reporting back to him on the task at hand. Reporter what date and time did you find out that hope hicks had tested positive, and did you sit on it until after the president went out to his fundraiser in new jersey actually, as we look at this, im not going to get into the tic toc. I can tell you in terms of hope, h hope hicks, we discovered that right as the marine one was taking off yesterday we actually pulled some of the people that had been traveling and in close contact the reason it was reported out is what that we had already started the Contact Tracing just prior to that event. As you know, last night even in the early hours of this morning, the minute we e got a confirmed test on the president , we felt like it was important to get the news out there at that time. And so thats why we sent out the tweet late or actually early this morning reporter Staff Members why arent you wearing a mask right now . So ive obviously been tested were hopefully more than six feet away, and if theres any concern there, from a guidance feet away. We have protocols in place when early on. Early on when we first started to tackle the battle we did two things in the white house. We looked at additional testing and mitigating the risk for social distancing, private meetings and the line. And i think it goes to the broader question even with mitigating factors yo have a virus that is contagious. And it has the ability to affect everybody as you know. The president , we keep a pretty wide circle, all of you that have interacted with him know that even with that wide circle we find that he is having to deal with this like so many other millions of americans. I can tell you that what were doing is focusing on the therapeutics, the vaccines, and that doesnt change. Let me ask quickly, the officials on the flight with the president , are they all being tested we have tested all of our core staff i can tell you that a number of us have been tested, and we have come back with negative results. And yet at the same time i fully expect that as this virus continues to go on, others will certainly have a positive test result and we have the mitigation plan in place to make sure that the government not only continues to move forward, but the work of the American People continues to move forward even as recent as this morning at a little after 8 00 the president was giving me a number of things to make sure that i get done and im sure that i will actually have those due outs, they have to be back to him later today. Im not going to i wanted to come out and give a update to all of you to show the Juvenile Court si of giving a update. Well have future updates. Im glad to do that, but any other specifics at this point that is chief of staff meadows there. The headlines that the president has mild symptoms, he is in good spirits, will remain on the job. Expecting more positive cases from the white house and the core staff has been testing negative ylan, no answers on what treatment he is getting or how it might affect ar tis passiparn the debates. How is the economy doing and what is going on with the stimulus talk. As far as we can tell what is going out for the stimulus talks is not that much yesterday the house passed the democrats 2. 2 trillion bill. Pelosi says she has been keeping the lining of communication open with the secretary they are exchanging documents. But right now it doesnt seem like many much progress. They are wondering whether or not republicans would see this as a moment to recognize if there is funding for treatment and tracing and all of those things in the democrats bill and so far no republicans have come to her to say that they had a change of heart, so we still remain in stalemate for now. When headlines suggest theyre getting closer on dollar figures, but remain further apart on language, does that sound like progress or not necessarily . You know 600 billion difference is a lot of money and the way the democrats are framing this is that it is not just about the dollars but the values behind the dollars. Youre seeing a lot of that funding being held up over debates about state and local governments, unemployed workers, and child tax credits versus business tax credits it is becoming not just about money but also about philosophy and it becomes a much harder bridge to cross. Thank you well monitor the white house for more updates Grover Nordqvist joining us today, good to see you and be with you our thoughts are with the president , his family, and the white house staff. At the same time do you see the diagnosis changing the calculus on stimulus . No, that is ridiculous. One persons difficulties do not change trillions of dollars, but the difference between the two parties has nothing to do with philosophies, it has to do with the stated goal of the republicans in the senate. They want to pass e pass a bill that deals with covid now. Nancy pelosi had a 3 trillion wish list. They didnt pay money into their pensions, the Teamsters Pension for 30 or 40 years ago they have run up deficits, and she wanted to use the promise that i wont solve covid problems until you give me trillions extra. There is 500 million that the republicans said look, we can agree to this dealing with covid and testing and Getting Health Care to people Nancy Pelosis wish list is another 2. 5 trillion of other things the answer to the other things is no. So until she decides to focus on covid, and perhaps if she notices the president has covid, she might remember it is about covid and bailing out big cities and the bad spending habits of the last 30 years, making them whole, giving money to the post office for their bankrupt pension, it has to do with a problem they had in labor negotiations so this is, the fight is do you want to fix covid or spend it with nancy pelosi. All of those that had to run as reasonable moderates had to vote for corruptly run big cities instead of getting to covid needs. That is her political decision i think shy made the wrong decision and that is why republicans will not bail her out with several trillion dollars. Where does that leave industry specific aide they didnt see an Airline Package necessarily standing alone, but we got headlines yesterday that ran counter to that where do you think the interest is right now on that well, right now the republicans would like to make sure that we dont destroy whole industries because of covid. And because covid, or the government, shut them down because of covid, and this is now on nancy pelosi to help fix the problems or to try to use that as blackmail to get other things my sense is at the end of the day the democrats will put enough pressure on, they will try to get her to focus on the covid or the economic problems there, and right now she is not doing that i think she finally got the word that she cannot have her Subsidy Program attached to the real needs of covid damage, and therefore, even this compromise she put out, she wanted a trillion dollars to give to big cities and she took it to half a trillion she made it a one year program instead of a twoyear program. She said well just do one year and try to come back to get the other year she is not even reducing her demand, she is just moving them around in the middle he she wants a massive subsidy. And it will increase federal cash flow into the states that we have been subsidizing for 60 years. What would you say to those millions of workers at the state and local government thats are seeing their jobs on the line. We have a job report this morning that showed hiring amid those state and local governments were weaker in the month of september so what would you say to them as this debate over whether or not state and local governments deserve additional stimulus. Take a look at the resources lost, and the money already thrown into states, yet the assumption of how much lost revenue cities didnt lose very much revenue cities make their money largely on property taxes. And those property taxes happen regardless of anything else happening. Some states with high income taxes have lost some money, but they got more money out of the federal government than they lost why isnt it that certain incompetent states cant make this work and others are states spending all of that money, but they didnt rush out and spend it on other things there is old money that could be redirected to the real needs they have rather than what they thought would happen several months ago indeed,