Residence. Risk assets sell off with stocks opening in the red and european equities close out the day lower. Investors seek safety in gold. Other safe havens also rally a very warm welcome to street signs. Lets get right to the story u. S. President donald trump and first lady have tested positive for coronavirus. The president confirmed on twitter saying, quote, we will get through this together. This comes after his top aid hope hicks tested positive she frequency traveled with the president including attending the first debate in ohio the president s physician released a statement saying both the president and first lady are doing well and will stay in the white house and that the president will continue his duties in full lets get to Market Reaction, we have seen futures pull back off this news. At one point, the dow was down 500 points, now we are down some 325 points some stabilization s p 500 down about 43 points we are off the lows. The tech heavy nasdaq currently lower. At one point, we were well lower. A bit of stabilization down. U. S. Futures trading an hour before the session fairly contained moves lower the ftse 100 down about the same fairly contained losses throughout the region here as investors digest what this means. Broader implication for what this might mean. At the moment, investors seem to be pausing when it comes to the trading session. Asian markets. Several are closed for holidays. Not every region is trading for the moment we have the nikkei 225 down. Topix down overall lower in the Asian Session as well. Vice president mike pence first in the chain of command in the event President Trump cannot continue his duties says he hopes the president and first lady make a swift recovery the message from china saying President Trump is paying his price for his gamble to play down covid19. Uk Prime Minister tweeted he wishes the president and first lady a speedy recovery that is some initial reaction from around the world. Lets bring in ryan heath now from politico to discuss the potential consequences thank you for joining us lets kick off the implications for the upcoming election. This comes two weeks before the next scheduled debate. What does this mean for upcoming debate first, obviously on the president himself, it is going to impair his debate preparation, which means all of his immediate rallies are canceled that is something the president thrives on we cant forget that joe biden has likely been exposed to some level. He was on the debate stage, very angry, very unwilling to contain himself during that entire debate with the entire trump entourage not Wearing Masks, youve got to be worried if you are a candidate in the mid70s weve seen leaders take a turn for the worst. President trump is a 74yearold man and 80 of the deaths in the states have been over the age of 65 this is the most Serious Health concern for a president since reagan was shot in 1981. The range of outcomes is huge when it comes to how this may play out as you mention, President Trump has two factors going against him. His age and weight which are two known risk factors if it thrusts covid19 to the floor of the campaign agenda, what does this mean for joe bidens chances for success . You have to say it helps joe bidens chances because it does play into the idea that the president has been wreckless and that that has caught up with him. However, you have a lot of people not tuned in to the daytoday debate. A lot will have sympathy for this particular in particular as anyone going through this situation. So lets not rule out the idea that President Trump does best when his back is against the wall this is what we saw in the access hollywood tape. It is possible hell still gain political credit and advantage at the moment, it looks like joe biden has played the smart and safer game and will reap the benefits from it interesting to draw comparison to what happened in the uk when Boris Johnson came down with covid19 the country really came behind him. It was a unifying moment for the United Kingdom what do you think this does for the covid narrative. When it comes to things like Wearing Masks and social distancing and we have the higher profile person in the world comes down do you think this changes the way governors and leaders address the way to contain it further . I think there are three impacts. First, the biggest possible weight a lot of people who have said this is just like the flu or they didnt think it would happen to them, they wont live with that narrative. They have to understand the caught the virus some of these wild theories people have been spouting off. You dont challenge it when a Family Member says it, that is really going to get clamped down because more and more people arent going to tolerate that kind of stuff spreading unchecked. Ill be honest with you, ive got to this point. Ryan, when it comes to the west wing and trying to control the outbreak here. There are a lot of members of the white house who will likely go into quarantine now what does this mean for daytoday operations for the white house. It is going to be tough those are cramped quarters it is a large house but not an endless house. It is not a massive sky scraper. A lot of people will be working from home rather than come into the office it certainly means theyll be limited to how they play those crucial swing states theyll be reluck cant to do anything like a large rally. This will severely restrict the government function. I come back to Boris Johnson again there where he pushed through after his initial diagnosis and insisted on working. We know that led to his health deteriorating. That is something the president and his family will have to consider carefully this virus takes you on a wild ride sometimes youll have to factor that in and see it through election day and not just look great in any given news cycle do you think this furthers chances. We know pelosi and mnuchin talk to each other. Does this change things for congress it has to change. Weve been saying for weeks it is unlikely the deal is going to happen you are seeing them really push for a deal the two sides are not that far apart. It is possible in the spirit of unity and not necessarily rallying behind the president or getting over some kind of differences, some sort of limited deal would be a part it is not necessarily the case that one extra factor would bring us to the finish line. I want to look at what this might mean from a global perspective. We have heard from the editor and chief tweeting that president has paid the price to gamble and play down the threat of the virus very bold words from him what are the chances this leads to further escalation in tensions between the u. S. And china . I dont know that it leads specifically to an escalation in tension but it is just the latest element for a very bad week you saw horrified reaction to the debate where the world didnt just see two men yelling at each other. What they saw was the system in decline. They really reacted. In the case like china, there was a glee or a sense of superiority that their system is better and for allies, it was jaws on the floor of how is this country we are looking up to like this in this debate the diagnosis is more up to this point. Handling this the worst. Donald trump will have to reckon with from top to bottom, america is messing this up and will have to do some kind of reckoning. If President Trump were unable to continue his duties, the next in line is mike pence and then the speaker of the house nancy pelosi how destabilizing would that be . Extremely destabilizing that is not something that will happen in any normal situation it is a situation reserved for emergencies. Then brings into, question is donald trump on the ballot or is mike pence we have the point of joe biden potentially being exposed. These are extreme scenarios now but you cant rule anything out. Is Kamala Harris really on the table for november an unlikely situation but at this point, we cant rule that out. Well leave it there. We appreciate you sharing your views. Lets take a look at safe havens we have seen investors flee riskier parts of the market. We have gold trading 20 basis points higher. That is a look at gold well have plenty more Market Reaction after this short break. Welcome back to street signs. Lets get a check on the markets and how we are trading the dax down and the cac 40 and ftse mib. Yesterday was a mixed picture overall muted for europe on the week coming into todays session. We have the stoxx 600 up 1. 8 . The biggest news with President Trump and the first lady that have tested positive for covid19 we did see a drop immediately after breaking news. Us futures have popped off of the day. The dow with a 130point drop. Putting that in contest with the moves in europe and now the move lower in the u. S. Seems to have stabilized investors have pulled some of the money out of the riskier parts of the market and put it into safer assets. We have yields out to the 30 year trading 1. 45 the two year around 0. 3 the losses and a bit of a mixed picture. The euro trading weaker down to 1. 2724 about 13 basis points higher we have brexit contributing to that trade a bit of a driver on top of the news from President Trump. The dollar weaker and another safe haven and trading swifter up 0. 23 bringing in more detail. The head of strategy, jane, first an overview of your take on the consequences of todays news that President Trump has contracted covid19. What has been interesting over the last month or week. The difficulty around the u. S. Election concerns that this could be contested and even the Mainstream Press talking about potential civil unrest given that this is an election that matters even more than in 2006 between gore and bush. Weve had protests on the back of black lives matters there is a concern weve got complete different direction with uncertainty at the moment, we know trump is in good health that should limit. If that changes, then the markets could be potentially worse. You mentioned President Trump appears to be in good health and continues to work from the residence. How important is it how his symptoms evolve. There are a range of outcomes at this point from a health perspective. If he recovers quickly or if it is longer, how will that affect the Campaign Election process. As long as the president remains well, well have more limited impact youll continue to fight and stand and continue to be the president ial candidate if that changes and his health does deteriorate, the market will wonder whether this election is really pences election that will alter peoples opinions about their voting opinions as well it does lead the market to the expectation. Given this uncertainty if Trumps Health does deteriorate, it is unlikely theyll win this election a lot of those swing states have been balanced. The market has been uncertain about the outcome of this election until now if you look at the Market Reaction, it has been fairly mixed over the course of the morning. What does this increased uncertainty mean for the green back it is interesting that it is mixed. 10, 15 years ago, i would argue the dollar was a safe haven. Ive changed that view, dollar liquidity is so significant and important to so many investors and businesses around the world. So many need the dollar in crisis the dollar is a proven safe haven. However, in ordinary countries, Something Like this is currency negative take a look at the brexit news in recent years and what type of Political Uncertainty has done to sterling. It pushes it lower right now there is a little conflict it is unlikely the dollar will strengthen probably against Everything Else is there a currency for the stance above the rest. That is more determined by the efforts since march. The type of panic we saw in march shouldnt be repeated in the foreseeable future at least. If weve had headlines throughout the crisis. On top of political news in that fear that investors might have to cover the debt payments in most of those circumstances, the fed has taken out some of that risk for the foreseeable future main street is yearning for more aid and at the moment, we are at a standstill. Do the events change the likelihood we get a deal from congress that host trading does carry on wed like to think this aid deal will come through quickly. If it is disappointing, that could mean a push and push those to come out. Really impacting safe haven debate if we dont get the impact, the market will be worried about the global economicout put. This is something that, again, could favor the u. S. Dollar. You mention the possibility we could see mike pence on the ballot that could happen explicitly or implicitly depending on how President Trumps health stands come november. What would that mean for the dollar it would be great to get a bit more tangible view. I would say that the uncertainty, the fact that there isnt a consensus view on the answer to tla question suggests uncertainty. That uncertainty alone will drive more investors then they would be otherwise from that point of view, they are positive certainly treasury positive and yen positive as well thank you for joining us. I know it is really hard to answer these questions given the uncertainty but it is great to have the framework i want to bring you some fresh comments out of the kremlin with regards to President Trumps diagnosis and comments here. The kremlin says, wishes President Trump a swift recovery after the u. S. President said he tested positive for covid19 in terms of the russian plans around inok u lagss and the covid situation there, we have some comments. Currently, the kremlin has no plans to reimpose lockdowns despite the surge of coronavirus cases. President putin also says he plans to get nnoculated agains covid and they will make an announcement when he does. Some comments from russia and well wishes for President Trump with putin wishing him a swift recovery u. S. Futures, we were down 500 points and now we are clawing back the lass. The dow set to open about 310 poin points lower the s p 500 set at a 41 point drop well be right back. Welcome back to street signs. These are your headlines donald trump tests positive for covid19 the president and first lady begin isolating two weeks ahead of the next scheduled president ial debate. The white house says donald trump will carry on his duties without disruption a senior official says he will work from the residence. Risk selloff after stocks trade in the red investors seek safety in gold and other safe havens rally. Lets see how u. S. Futures are doing a few hours after investors dying know when news broke, it was the middle of the night for u. S. Investors. Between 1 00 and 2 00 a. M. Eastern time we did see a knee jerk reaction. Now we have bounced off those lows, currently trading off the lows off the lows for all three but still red across the board european markets have taken a turn lower in lock step for u. S. Futures. The move is relatively contained. The ftse 100 down and the mib under a bit of pressure. A number of implications here after President Trumps diagnosis. Well help you get an understanding for the framework through which you can assess the developments a ton of uncertainty at the moment u. S. President trump and first lady have tested positive. The president confirmed on twitter saying, quote, well get through this together. This comes after hope hicks confirms her diagnosis she travels frequency with the family and attended the first debate we have eamon javers on the phone from washington, d. C give us a sense of the reaction from d. C. This morning reporter it is still early in the morning here about 4 30, so the reaction is muted there will be shocked as people wake up and official washington gets moving. Of course, there will be changes. The white house put out a schedule for today, friday that will be scrapped. The president will quarantine. The plan for now is for the president to quarantine at the white house and weve been talking overnight with a senior official saying there is no real change to the procedure here in terms of what happens in their planning he will remain at the white house under close scrutiny but the procedure now will not be that much different than if he had the flu theyll limit staff access from here on out, it is not clear what happens it may be the case the president has attended his last rally of the election season. He has been out there rallying aggressively where many were not Wearing Masks. In contrast to his opponent joe biden who has taken a more restrictive measure. The two men were on stage together they were socially distanced but there is a lot of concern now for some reaction from the Biden Campaign to see whether they can get joe biden tested to make sure he did not contract the coronavirus during his interpretations with President Trump or the trump team. A number of them were in the hall for the event not clear when exactly the president would have contrasted the virus but we do know his top aid hope hicks has tested positive the president said on fox news that he seemed to indicate he thought hope hicks contracted the virus in contact with members of the military. Not sure if that is the case but that tends to be the president s impression right now a lot still in the air the plan is for the president to hunker down in the white house and ride this thing out. Due to his age and physical shape, there are real concerns here that president might not be in that category of people who might just shrug off this virus. The white house says the president and the first lady are both, doing well, quote unquote but have not told us whether the president is feeling symptoms or feeling sick thank you for the comprehensive overview of the situation. This is staggering that this comes just 32 days before the election i know the range of outcomes at this point is tremendous we were discussing the possibility that Vice President mike pence is essentially on the ballot come november what do you think investors should be taking seriously when they think about the risks and the runup to the election. There are procedures about what happens if the president is incapacitated. If the president is so sick he cant carry out his duties, then the Vice President would take over that has been done under the 25th amendment before. In this case, presumably the president would be able to order that transfer of power himself based on a doctors diagnosis that this is going to get worse before it gets better. If the president would somehow become unconscious or make that determination for himself, the Vice President would step in very orderly process all mapped out. What is not orderly and mapped out is what would happen in a worst Case Scenario if the president would suffer from this and suffer more than 200,000 fatalities in the United States. You dont want to go there but it is such a deeply unfortunate thing for the president and his country. From are procedures as well. In that case, mike pence will become the president of the United States and the Republican Party would have to adjust their procedures to get pence to be on the ballot in november it would be a biden versus pence scenario this is war gaming out some possible scenarios as impossible as it would be to think about right now. Narrative in the United States say that again. Does this change the narrative around covid19 in the u. S. I think it does it is going to be a big wakeup call for the country when they wake up in the morning a lot of people have been very skeptical that the virus is as dangerous as scientists have told us. The United States is a very polarized and divided country right now. A lot of evidence that comes in simply to post people that it reinforces that they were right all along. A lot of people take this and process this information and decide that it fits with what they were saying all along a lot of it will depend on how sick the president gets. If he is deathly ill, people will take it more seriously. If he is problematic and ride it out and back in the oval office on tuesday, that kind of a scenario will lead a lot of people say, you know what, weve been overdoing this mask and social distancing thing. Before i left you go. Do you think this changes a likelihood we get a deal out of mnuchin and pelosi you know, ive been thinking about that overnight my one thought on this is that it may take some of the spotlight off those negotiations politically and in terms of the media. If the president is preoccupied with this, it may give Steven Mnuchin a freer hand in those. We do think he is more inclined to a deal than other people inside the white house it may make the deal more likely this is Uncharted Waters mapping out all the dimensions of it are tricky right now really appreciate you taking the time to join us this morning. Eamon javers from washington, d. C. You can cover all of our coverage and potential con kw s consequences on cnbc. Com lets look at the trading this morning in the equity markets which has he slowed a little bit. We are seeing a decent bid for gold off 25 basis points. Now up 0. 19. The u. S. Curve has moved lower and they put some of that money to work in bonds as they fled to the risker part of the market and the green back gets a bounce back news coincides with the eu leader summit. More with how european leaders are reacting to President Trumps diagnosis. Good morning. There havent been a lot of reactions from european leaders even though they are in brussels in this twoday summit meeting what weve heard is very much in focus on the actual discussions they are having there. Nonetheless, we did hear from micel that he wishes donald trump and the first lady a speedy recovery. I did mention, and i quote, covid19 is the battle we all continue to fight every day no matter where we live we heard from the Prime Minister wishing the a speedy recovery to the president and first lady we heard from the polish Prime Minister and former italy leader and the oacd chief not a lot of comments from european leaders this morning, they are monitoring what is happening in the United States because of the implications that this might have on the upcoming president ial election. There are a lot of implications about how the eu goes on with reactions with the United States we know since President Trump arrived at the white house, there have been a lot of attention at both sides of the atlantic over trade and over nato thats why the eu is keen to understand what might happen of course, who will be the next president of the u. S. So then they can understand how they deal with the upcoming presidency looking at u. S. Futures, we have bounced firmly off those lows down 302 points and s p down 40 and the nasdaq pointing to a 180point drop at the open welcome back the white house physician says President Trump is performing his duties in full from isolation. If this were to change, he could evoke Section Three of the 25th amendment which would see Vice President pence become acting president and then nancy pelosi would be next in line and followed by Chuck Grassley a statement from the president s doctor said he would stay at home while he recovers but didnt state how long. Anyone can end selfisolation 10 days after symptoms and 24 hours after no fever President Trumps stance around Wearing Masks was raised during this debate when he was requested about effectiveness of masks. I have a mask here. Tonight, everybody has had a test and youve had social distancing i wear masks when needed, when needed, i dont wear masks i dont wear masks like him. Every time you see him, hes in a mask i want to bring you fresh comments from mike pompeo, he is reconsidering travel to florida and asia but no precaution has been taken yet the last time he was with the president was september 15 at the white house for the signing of the Abraham Accords he and his wife were tested on the plane 20 minutes prior to landing and both tested negative of course there will be questions flying around washington and who else was exposed. We have heard now the president and his wife have tested positive no precaution taken yet. The last time he was with the president was september 15 at the white house. Lets look at u. S. Futures and how we are posed to open on wall street around the 310 level drop for the dow at the open if this level holds. The s p 500 looking at a 40point drop and tech heavy nasdaq in a deck heavy fall. Initial kneejerk reaction at one point pointing up to a drop at the open. Tim joins us great to have you with us. What do you make of this Market Reaction it is certainly warranted given the condition of the president. Well have to see how ill he is and how ill the first lady is. It will all be dependent on the seriousness of the president s condition. For uncertainty to just gather pace in the next 32 days. I would say again, this is short term and that the president would be wise to stay the course for the investing model keeping in line with the conditions and futures and job claims everything is local. Country by country, everything matters. Theyll be looking at that Global Economy investors are prudent about their next move. Very specific, your advise is to treat this as a specific and shortterm issue a lot of that depends on the trajectory where we have the payroll due out later today. How would you characterize the American Economy at this stage the developed economies, we have to remember where we came in february, we have to remember the numbers at 3. 5 . September numbers are not out yet, expect to see 8. 2 while the rates are still dropping, that is still very high back at 8. 2 as the rate back in february not likely at this time or in near term. How important is the aid for congress or recovery for the u. S. The democrats were seeking a 3. 2 trillion through the heroes act and republicans to desire a program. Likely there will be a program for the aid. Thats what this is all about. This is not going to go through a joint commissions. Over the past six to nine months, it will follow that trop trajectory and the cares act following in 2020. President trump has been all about the reopening and of course this now possesses the potential of a covid narrative in the u. S do you think there is a risk of tightening restrictions in the u. S. And among leaders to take on stricter measures that is an astute comment in the United States since february, the question being always, how quickly and under what circumstances, what is the scope of loosening in the United States with respect to schools and restaurants and other activities i would think especially now given the circumstances of the president and first ladys condition, well see more caution and possibly more restrictive protocol on activities thank you for being with us this morning the pace of jobs growth in the u. S. Is forecasted to have slowed with more than 800,000 jobs in the economy. Cases continue to rise across america. Dow jones indicate the Unemployment Rate will fall slightly this will be the final jobs report before the president ial election we are told the president will selfisolate and quote, continue to work hard. Tracie potts joins us. Give us a sense of what the next 24 hours will look like in washington. Right so we know that the president will not be in the oval office the big question is his Health White House physician said overnight that the president and first lady were doing well but would not say specifically if he is experiencing any symptoms we know the top aid to the president hope hicks was experiencing symptoms when she was with him in minnesota and also the day before at the debate in cleveland, ohio. She tested positive and shortly there after we learned that the president and first lady did as well next 24 to 48 hours, monitoring his health the other big thing is contact tracing. Hope hicks was exposed to a lot of people. Trump Family Members, we saw her walking with Jared Kushner she was seen on air force one without a mask tracing who has been exposed will be critical we appreciate you joining us and preparing us for the days ahead. A final look at u. S. Futures for continued coverage for Market Reaction and consequences of reaction from covid19 the dow at a 300 drop at the open thats it for todays show, Worldwide Exchange is coming up next. Breaking news, President Trump and first lady have tested positive hours after test results from one of the president s closest aids came in positive. The president s doctor say both are doing well and plan to quarantine in the white house at this time. Global markets are reacting to the news stock futures are down it is friday, october 2, 2020