It today here is how things look now. We are in the green. Look at the small cap stocks the russell 2000 we are still coming off four down weeks for stocks. A pretty louse si month. Now, the s p 500 is on pace for its best two day gain since all the way back in june did you follow that kate moore w were in a four week down street were on our best two day stretch since back in june bp the volatile till has really grown. What are you expecting ahead im told theres an election in 36 days. Is it just 36 days . It feels like its going to be any moment at this point we have this down market there is will the of consolidation and profit taking, rotation in terms of participation over the last couple of weeks. The big point and message is tlauls v theres always volatility before an election. In a year like this where we have so many cross currents between the virus. Questions around Economic Activity relationships with other countries. Theres so much for an investor whether it needs to be retail or constitutional to take in that you should expect some volatility going into your end the good news is this volatility can provide amazing opportunities to increase the size of position in industries and in sectors where you feel like youre going to be able to own this secular winners companies with earnings, motes that are digitally transformed and that really have the ability to grow their revenue regardless of the economic cycle. I tell you what, its easy to forget but in the 15 or so months aheading into the 2016 election, the market as you remember did squat were like the dow is up four points today the market did nothing for a better part of the year. Why the increased volatility this time around well, i think its a collection of macro conditions that are impacting the market. I think its the increase in chinese u. S. Trade tensions. Lets not forget rising virus cases in india and the uk and also the impact from the fixed income market as it relates to where rates might go i think its a collection of these macro head winds that are impacting the market yes, today is a very broad based rally. I believe 95 of the s p 500 is higher thats a very strong number. Probably the best number weve had since december of 2018 i think within the dow itself theres only two stocks that are lower for the day. Theres been a fourweek slide looking forward youre still going to have the volatility maybe most of the price damage has been done. Now we have to mark some time into the earnings season i dont think we do. I think we trade here. Its kind of indicative of that and im sure people explain to us the reasoning behind why we see this higher vxp today. Thats it it is higher i feel like the vxp is the minnesota vikings. They are kind of good. Every time you think they will break out, they do something dumb and now they are 03. The vxx is like that its up. Its not at 12 but its not acting like were going to have this major contested election. Huge volatility. Its not at 40 how do we read this weird level. Everybody likes to talk about the vxx. So many people think the vxx is the fear index its not the fear index. Its a measurement of expectations Going Forward where were we. What kind of movement do we have we had 360 points. We went off the lows we accelerated to the upside the velocity was unbelievable. Today same sort of reaction. Were seeing the dow very much out pace the nasdaq. The fact we have moved up a little bit says to me the volatility is there. Its increasing because the movement that we are seeing warrants that increased volatility i think that my recommendation would be you use that volatility when you can in other words, oftentimes we talk about different ways to trade the market when the volatility is higher, i tend to be buying stocks and selling premium. At other times when the volatility is low, thats when youre buying more call options and put options and use that to your advantage we start to break out a little bit. We were over 30 twice last week. Two different occasions. Its not like we cant go over 30 again we can we can even go a little bit higher its all about you were talk about the macro. The mechanic row is huge its about the virus its also about the vaccine and the elections. Its all of the above. There are a lot of different factors playing in right now to markets. There are you had 30 seconds past the bell the worlds loudest text message symbol as well what was that i heard something maybe im going insane because i wake up at 2 50 in the morning tiffany, when you look at what pete just mentioned, you also the other things out there china, increased tensions with that country as well thats me that was my dad asking me if im on tv today. Yes, dad, im on tv. I just muted it. Shes doing great thanks for watching, dad thank you happy birthday to my mom we have been talking about all of these macro issues that are going on at first, pete is absolutely right. The vxx is a kind of like a future is an indication of a future expectation i dont think that markets have really learned to predict elections yet. I think that wlerned from four years ago when everybody was so sure things would go a certain way. I do think that we see volatility as every little event during the president ial cycle happens. Were in this unprecedented time where we never been in a global pandem pandemic we are in that now it probably wont be until april 2021 until we get a vaccine. So Many Americans are struggling economically our economy is really struggling we dont have any hope of a stimulus where do you go . What are you thinking about . I think we came out of this time where everybody was at home. There are more Retail Investors getting into the market than ever before. They were at home playing the markets because it was the cool thing to do. I think Retail Investors react in a way that Institutional Investors dont. Were seeing some of that go on right now. We bought back first off happy birthday to your mom your mom may be a good peg for my question. Theres so many things we want to do but you cant. You want to take your mom or dad out for dinner and you just cant or your dont want to be around them because they are older and theres risk i get this idea when you study history the roaring 20s, were not about the war, it was about the end of 1918 which is far worse than this. We all know that i wonder if it will be this rush of spending as we all sort of bust out in 2021 and the market is maybe priced that in already as we all just look to try to book a slight rigflight right nw flights are expensive. Two years of Digital Transformation in two months what i think when im reflecting back looking at history of this year, what we have always seen two years of multiple expansion in a lot of names as well. I agree with joe and pete. I think the markets range bound. I think the highs we saw the first week of september are probably in for the year i dont see nvidia racing back up to 600. Well see if we see some type of rotation because theres certain sectors like energy and you would assume more Financial Regulation with the democrats and so i think tomorrow night will be probably one of the most heavily watched shows or debates in history i think its somewhat set the narrative Going Forward until the election i think this is more of a traders market right now we have to know what you own. Know what catalysts are coming out there before youre going to continue to buy zoom thinking it will go up and expand multiples after its already had an incredible year already. A follow up for that on the debate because biden is already leading in the polls whatever you think of the poll, i get it they were really wrong in 2016 a lot of people believe they are wrong now because of the shy trump voter. You think the race is tighter than the polls suggest if biden is able to pull it out and have a good debate, he might extend that lead or solidify something and that from an investment perspective, you have to sell the shale companies, things like that i would hope not. We would rather be buyers of the shale companies. I do think its a close election you need to be nimble. Have your core positions i think its a Good Environment where you can trade the name pps you have seen an expansion of some of the epicenter names. The Airlines Continue to make higher lows and not that they are making higher highs but higher lows. Youre seeing an expansion of some of these epicenter names outside of tech. If you can hold your nose with a lot of different areas in these epicenter names thats probably the easiest money to make versus just camping out in tech thinking thats whats work this year will keep working well see you in kaup l of seconds. The faang names are down 10 did it accomplish the idea to flush things out, clean things up a bit i dont think you can say yes, its complete if you thought coming up into september as most people did, the main hazards or liabilities in this market was really overconfident traders sentiment and positioning. I think they have been reset lower in way you can observe things like surveys and a very large shorts position in nasdaq futures thats developed out of the blue into last week as well. I do think you sort of skimmed away a lot of that froth at the same time, you havent seen the market kind of seize up in advance of new economic stress you have not seen the credit markets lead stocks lower. They have gotten a bit ragged but are being very strong today. Youve not seen treasury yields run to new lows. My point there is that the equity market pull back seen mostly about the equity market im not going to oppose the idea that were still maybe chopping along here you reset sentiment where the risk reward is better than it was four weeks ago mike, everybody go check out his piece on cnbc i think theres some of that. Ive been in the market long enough to understand that sentiment in this name are critically important when thinking about nvesting for th short and medium term. Helping you tie your entry and exit points. We have taken some length out of the market we talk to some of our traders at black rock. Well say we went from a nine or ten in terms of length across retail to maybe like a six or seven now. Its not that people have backed away from it or backs away from some of the words Like Technology based on opportunities and what the fed is i expect them to stay elevated we could see multiples expand higher in some of these secular growth winners into 2021 as we find that some industries and companies are so structurally impaired they cant catch a bit. Im a bull on the multiple side at 22 times forward earnings theres a lot, a lot of the risk on the tech trade Trump Administration slapping new sanctions on chinese chip giant. A third of smic suppliers are in the United States and about a fourth of their customers are located here as well does it scare you off the semiconductors it doesnt scare me off you you would expect the stock to be higher than it is. There is some cost for concern the fact we dont know exactly what kind of retaliation that we might exactly see. We have gone through this before almost exactly a year ago. When you look at mike ron, the reason i have concern is about 50 of their revenue does come from china on the positive side, they really are a much bigger 5g player than most people really fully understand and because of that, their are exposed. They are exposed they are 60 plus different phone, smart phones out there in china. This is good for micron but what will they start to do if we see any retaliation that would be meaningful that would be bad. Im a bit nervous about that position yeah. Tiffany, you own nvidia but thats about it. Youre not using that a pure semiconductor play im not we were lucky enough the buy nvidia a while ago and we were just correct i would really rather be be diversified in our Tech Holdings i kind of get back to this idea of these kind of three buckets that ive created. I like tech. Tech adjacent companies and tech enabler companies. We did see that little dip thats okay. Last week they were coming out of the that. We had a whole conversation about volatility these Tech Companies today, i know a lot of people talk about compare this to 2000 all right good stuff there lets step out of technology and go to maybe the value trade. The transport sector, thats on a bigger roll than a tractor trailer truck rolling down a hill for a tv commercial transports on pace for a sixth positive month in a row. Fedex is up 17 this month recently upgrade at Deutsche Bank key bank upgraded u. P. S. You wonder are we going to get a buy back or do you just got to wit even though they are on a roll i think you definitely want to buy these on a pull back. Its nice to see, fedex and u. P. S. Have done so well this year i think they finally have some more longer term tail winds. I think markets will sell off again for the reasons we discussed. This is a great way to broaden out the portfolio and some of these long term names. Also going into christmas should give those two companies specifically if nothing else, sentiment tail winds as we know every one will be ordering online to have things delivered. We focus on fedex and u. P. S. Because they are big names thats a small cap transport name its taking advantage of the tail wind thats being provided right now in the u. S. With reopening of a lot of the economies that was that hard stop and theres been a significant restart. I think the iyt which sits about 1. 5 below its all time high is probably the most broad way for investors to get exposure to what has been the strength of transports transimportants ha transports have been a leading indicator. I think it extends beyond that i think you could look at the rails. Theres some opportunity there whether its for Union Pacific or kansas city southern. The last piece of this equation comes back what happens on wednesday. Do we believe theres going to be an extension for the federal payroll support towards the airlines if there is, is set up is probably a favorable one for name Like United Airlines or delta. Good stuff there. Watching old dominion freight lines. What other moves are the traders making tiffany, start with you. You bought more Jpmorgan Chase and citigroup not scared off by that sort of deep dive report last week about allegations of Money Laundering i dont like that im looking at financials as a broader sector i definitely like cyclicals and financials tend to do well here. I think that you really have to be careful we own citi for a while. We own jpmorgan. In addition to their diversified refr knew stream, i also like jpmorgans esg play. Citi even though its more so a commercial bank and i think you got to be careful with buying commercial banks now and we owned it for a while, i do like them from an esg perspective they put out a report last week on the racial wealth gap wells is company that wells fargo that ive been very vocal about. I do not like. They have been really struggling because they are a commercial bank and they drive a lot of our revenue from the loans and individuals who are struggling right now. Thaifr had a string of scandals from esg perspective and Charlie Scharf comes out last week and it was revealed in a a Conference Call he says that wells cant hit their diversity targets because theres a lack of black and brown talent. I use esg as kind of like a tool to really gain insight into how management thinks. I think with those comments charlie told everybody how he thinks wells fargo cant get out of its own way and management cant keep their shoe out of their mouth. Stock is down 50 this year. They have taken a big history. Its the worst performing stock. Its terrible maybe the most important stock in the United States right now just given all the mortgages they hold. Bryn, you like goldman sachs. I bought it around 190, 192 i think its great stock i bought goldman in the low 190s i think its a good time to pick ut up there. I traded this before i think it can get longer term into the 215 and 220 ill probably exit there i also traded southwest and sold it last week around 42 airlines sold off for the millionth time bagt it back at around 36. 50 i always invest or trade stocks im happy to own i think goldman and Southwest Airlines are Wonderful Companies but its a good time to pick it up especially southwest in the mid 35s. You love. You want to get it at the right price. We are going to take a break kate, great to have you back im sure booel see you again soon everybody else is sticking around folks, check out this mystery chart. This is actually a Big Oil Stock that is down nearly 40 this year theres a bullish call out on the name today thats pushing the stock higher well tell you the name, the call and the debate. As we get back out there, you can watch or thereon us live on the go in the cnbc app halftime is back right after this i felt like. I was just fighting an uphill battle in my career. So when i heard about the applied Digital Skills courses, im thinking i can become more marketable. You dont need to be a computer expert to be great at this. These are skills lots of people can learn. I feel hopeful about the future now. Welcome back, everybody. Im sue herera here is your cnbcu date. Wildfires continue to destroy homes in california. The shady fire is one of several wildfires threatening more than 2,000 structures in the San Francisco bay area widespread evacuation area have forc forced thousands to flee their home britain is reporting a lower number of covid cases. Because its 2020, here is another thing to worry about during the pandemic. Hair loss. Some doctors are pointing to stress as the cause with a hair loss occurring three to four months after the stressful event. The good news, hair loss of this kind is often temporary with normal locks returning within six the nine months. You are up to date its great to see you. Ill send it back to you its good to see now im all stressed ou about my hair. Now im like, my god 2020 just keeps on giving its going to be great. Locusts fire ball is next. Burning snow. My new band name. Thank you very much. Theres a big bullish call on a Big Oil Stock today yes, you heard us right. Chevron upgraded to buy at bank of america the firm citing attractive risk reward and the industry realization that its got to get smaller and kick cash back to shareholders as well i want to get to show first, pete, you own chevron calls. I own the stock you own the stock yes, sir. I have for a while now the risk reward is one of the topics a this the analyst is bringing up here in terms of that being favorable problem is and im saying this as a guy who owns a stock is we all see the light in front of us what is the time frame for chevron . How much longer does names like chevron and some of the other big names have before they are under a lot more pressure. The one positive has been the move towards natural gas all the different aspects of where they are going for alternative energy as well theres some positives out there. I love the cash flow still this is a very difficult hold. Im going to hold for a little while longer but i am not expecting a monster upside at this point in time its interesting because california where chevron is based out lawed the sale of gas powered cars after the year 203537 chevron sells gas at gas stations i think the idea that pete was nibbling around is that the new idea in oil and gas is like big toe back kpoep the realization is you cant grow anymore. Get smaller, cut your cap exand give that money back to shareholders and you might have an investment the sis i would agree with that i think thats where mike worth and the Management Team for chevron have done an excellent job. When i look at the large cap diversified energy is the name ive owned chevron in the past its an incredibly frustrating environment to be an investor in we talk a lot about the decline in the nasdaq in september 2nd lets not forget or highlight the fact energy has been the leading sector in the four week decline down nearly 13 . People are trying to pick up the laggards today thats why the xle is pricing at 3 higher. Energy facing a tumlutuous year. Youll have a lot of Debt Maturity that will have to be met with theres an election. When you look at the sectors in the equity market, energy has the most exposure to some form of restrictive Regulatory Environment if joe biden were to win. Nobody would get hit more than devin which is why theyre doing deals. Any way, lets get to rahel who has a few other big calls we can shoe on. Good to see you. Good to see you as well lets start with two calls in the social immediating space target shut 6 bucks to 28s. The analyst behind the call said they think the wipers will keep winning and Internet Companies even with their Strong Performance this year still have areas where they are under appreciated such as snap the stock is up about 4 the firm also initiating coverage of pinterest with a buy rating the stock is up nearly 120 this year boa calls unpar ralleled growth got a lot of interesting names to talk to first off, tiffany, i want to go to you on pinterest. I dont fully understand pinterest Business Model but a lot of other people do you do enough that you want to own the stock. What makes it attractive first of all, its a social media company. If you dont have a pinterest account, go get one. Its free. It allows users to create vision boards of everything you want to do if you want to decorate your house or want some motivational goals. It really is this community. I see it as an alternative to like a facebook or to some of those other social media platforms. Really help businesses gain shares it really is really does speak to how i purchase things theres a ton of little cool features in pinterest that really help connect businesses with their customers its a win for me. Pete, you own Virgin Galactic and bought more snap calls yeah. Stock has gone from 21 up towards 26 in a hurry. These options just continue to be right i think the interesting thing about Virgin Galactic is this is a stock i bought back this april. Give you a good example. Using implied volatility its not always the volatility index that we talk about but individual names i bought the stock not too far from where it is now it was just under 18. 5 when i purchased it ive been owning this since early parts of april selling calls every single month. I think its a pretty Interesting Company to look at it im going to own the stock and protect myself by selling calls every single month my goal would be to continue to do this as long as i own this stock. All right good stuff there great note on the musk branson next, the big etfs to watch in todays rally bob is along with that first, lets get a check on the s p sectors as we head to break. Every single one is in the green. Look at that energy, it is leading the way. When is the last time we said that probably never, by the way dow up 488 rally on a monday rolls on were back right after this. Thats what my dad does. Good job, michael ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does. My mom has super powers. Its like she can see the future. What . its like she time travels in a rocket ship. Thats cool and then she comes back saying try this or try that. She helps everyone. She helps them feel less worried. Wow mommy, so what is it that you do . Im a financial advisor. She is aig proudly supports all the professionals taking care of our Financial Futures. But a resilient business you cacan be ready for it. Re. A Digital Foundation from vmware helps you redefine whats possible. Now. From the hospital shifting to remote patient care in just 48 hours. To the university moving hundreds of apps quickly to the cloud. Or the City GovernmentGoing Digital to keep Critical Services running. You are creating the future on the fly. And we are helping you do it. Vmware. Realize whats possible. How did you come up withd opened all these backstories . Tudio. I got help from a pro. My financial professional explained to me all the ways nationwide can help protect Financial Futures in peytonville. Nationwide can help the greens get Lifetime Income because their son kyle is moving back home and could help set up a Financial Plan for mrs. Garcia. And he explained how nationwide can help mr. Paisley retire early and spend more time with his pal, peyton. And their new band. Exactly yeah. Dont forget the band. I havent. Welcome back the etf portion of Halftime Report its a dozen coming this week including direct listings from Data Management firm palantir and asana. Lets talk about that ipo boom and how its affecting the etf business 27 ipos this mopnth. Why is it out performing even in a month where the market is down theres so much liquidity out there, bob if you look at ipos and how they perform over the last few years, the first half of 2019 wasnt a great time for ipos. If you look at a lot of the ipos that are rushing to market, they happen to be in hottest parts of even the new economy cloud in terms of virus and the number of is software plays. Look at snow you have zoom. You have these companies that are representative of the haves in the world of haves and have notes in the covid19 environment. Its been well timed for a number of these companies in this environment kim, that seems to be the obvious case ipos have caught the covid wave perfectly. You talk about the ones moving zoom, moderna. All of these are beneficiaries of the work from home environment. Other bio teches are out there that are coming in the next couple of months is the ipo pipeline going to continue to cater to the exact perfect market that would enough market for the ipo business. Thank you i would echo tims comment theres a ton of liquidsty and you have a lot of companies ta are positioned well whether its health care in the medical tl r delivery or medical innovation space or technology and the digitization we have 490 unicorns with trillion eyes of mark cap. Thats three billion on average. You have a lot in the pipeline and a will the of those are obviously companies, like your mentioned coming up here those five companies are almost 6 billion in valuation one thing i would point out, bob, just to kind of bracket where we are last year i think there were call at 160 ipos maybe this year there will be 170. In round numbers about 330 the two years from 99 to 00, there were almost 900. 900. Just to kind of theres a lot going on right now some of the institutional people are clearly starting the pay a bit attention. Thank you very much. More on these ipo listings coming up 1 00 p. M. Eastern time well be joined by debra fuhr to talk about these new records in the etf space. Dont miss that. Back to you. All right. Good to see you. Thank you very much. Our experts are ready for ask halftime thats next. You can send in your questions now by video how cool is that well try to play some of them on the air email us at halftime. Cnbc. Com. Halftime returns in 30 seconds stick around how i prioritize which ones to add to jessica, great question i think congrats to you for having a discipline of buying when stocks are down what i typically do is when stocks are down, i look at my i rank my stocks by conviction and the markets are on the time so i take advantage of the stocks that i have conviction in i think the market is mispriced. All right next up is for tiffany this is abdul in ohio who asks when should i sell uber . Its important to note uber did win its battle to keep its london license when should he sell, into the strength today thanks for the question the answer is you dont. I love the news that they have gotten their license back in london listen, uber is not a ride share company. Its a tech Delivery Company they want to bring everything to your door. Thats why with the uber eats business they were able to do a bit well during this pandemic. They also bought post mates. This is why they are doing better than lyft dont sell it. All right this is for pete mike wants to know is disney a buy. I think it is i think it was a little ahead of itself what i mean by that is i own the stock for many years and i did get myself out of it but now im in the options the reason i want to be there is i feel like i have a lot more comfort is i think you have to be flexible as we go through this pandemic. Towards the early parts of next year, i might consider getting back in it under the right circumstances but for now i wanted to shift to something a little more comfortable for me which is the options themselves. Joe, nicholas writes is lowes a buy for the long term well get to joe hopefully in a bit. Lowes pete, you have a comment on lowes so we can give our loyal viewers some of what they came for. Absolutely. Hope depot great stock lowes also a great stock. They have absolutely turned the corner because of that, i think you can own either of these stocks right now. I think the only thing that would determine which one i would be in at any sperveg time is where they are in terms of the p e levels i think both are doing and executing in an amazing way right now especially on the ecommerce side. Great stuff joe, thank you well see joe in a second. How schocool is that keep your video questions coming there you go still ahead, petes latest trades in unusual activity and a big cnbc reminder on a big cnbc day. Delivering alpha is back for its 10th year. A huge line up of guests still time to register were back in two minutes. Our is or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. It was absolutely terrifying. I felt like i was just fighting an uphill battle in my career. As a little kid i knew that i wanted to work with computers. So when i heard about the applied Digital Skills courses, that definitely appealed to me. Youre learning how to create spreadsheets, documents, forms and surveys. Im thinking i can become more marketable. I got to about the third course and im like, you know, i probably could do this for a living. You dont need to be a computer expert to be great at this. These are skills lots and lots of people can learn. I feel hopeful about the future now. Its empowering to have that knowledge that nobody can take away from you. Time now for futures outlook. Gold is moving higher today, but lower in september after taking a record rally this year with us, bill baruch you predicted this why, bill . Im owning gold as a futures trader and an investor were seeing the u. S. Dollar weaker here. A big week ahead, a lot of data and a grim bit of hope that gold could come higher after the election 1870 is a good area to buy today. Youre risking 20 thats 2,000 in the big contract the contract is 200. A new low compared to yesterday, compared to friday and moving out of fridays high right now bill baruch of blue Line Features we appreciate it, bill this is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Take a look at United Airlines moving higher after the Company Announced it has reached an agreement with its pilots union that will help the union and the airline avoid roughly 3,000 pilots who would have been furloughed on thursday remember, thursday is the day when airline furloughs kick in it was going to be 16,000 at united, now its down to 13,000. Were waiting to find out the total furloughs wiinth the Airline Industry in the next few days more halftime after this she wanted a roommate to help with the cooking. But she wanted someone who loves cats. So, we got griswalda. Dinners almost ready. But one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with our renters insurance. Yeah, switching and saving was really easy drink it all up. Good could have used a little salt. Visit geico. Com and see how easy saving on renters insurance can be. And then found the home of my dreams. But my home of my dreams needed some work sofi was the first lender that even offered a personal loan. I didnt even know that was an option. The personal loan let us renovate our Single Family house into a multiunit home. And i get to live in this Beautiful House with this beautiful kitchen and its all thanks to sofi. And i get to live in this Beautiful House music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. Weve got about 20 seconds for final trades pete, kick it off. Real quick, United Airlines i saw some call buying about 20 minutes ago. I bought some calls. Joe ice exchange. Brynn alibaba in anticipation of the ipo next month tiffany ihs market. They report earnings tomorrow and i expect good things you guys are all pros by the way, awesome stuff. Ill see you on wednesday, and by the way, another happy birthday to tiffanys mom. Thats it for halftime. The exchange begins right now. Thank you, brian, and well see you in just a couple minutes. Hi, everybody, and welcome to the exchange. Im kelly evans and heres whats ahead this hour well take you through the headlines. Deals by continuing stimulus talks sending stocks higher today, building on fridays gains. Will this rally until october. Plus airlines focus on a huge week for the sector as furloughs and a treasury decision on more aid approaches. Well look at what companies have the most at stake and could take big hits