That debate this hour. Look at whats leading the dow now. It would be Goldman Sachs up nearly 6 . Apple and microsoft leading the tech heavy weights they are in the poll positions power lunch starts right now thank you, tyler stocks are near the highs of the session right now with the nasdaq leading this mid day turn around lets get over to bob for more kelly, it doesnt feel like it but its been a very volatile two days i want to show you the s p 500 believe it or not, we have moved in 100point range in the last 24 hours we opened yesterday about 3320 and we had a low this morning at the open of 3220 theres 100point range. Right now were in the middle. Part of the problem is valuations we cant figure out where the stocks should be even the megacap names okay, they are up today but they have been all over the place apple has been 105 to 112 in the last 24 hours. Thats a pretty big range for the biggest stock in the United States the problem is our cash like to sap we did this within this morning. The whole world is turning the momentum stocks. September has been a very tough month for momentum if you look at the s p 500 were down 7 . If you take the big five megacap names out there, they are down an average of 12 this month momentum has had a tough time. Who can blame them everybody is trading these reopening names. The names associated whether covid goes well or doesnt go well your market is dominated by momentum traders not fundamental traders which is what you usually would want here as those momentum traders are believing in technicals and very tight sell stocks. Thats why you go up very quickly and suddenly if it starts going down, the momentum guys drop because they have the tight sell stops wash, rinse, repeat. Keep doing it over and over like groundhog day depending on what the news is. If you look at the market moving trends we talk about the five buckets moving the stocks, vaccine and treatment, thats been positive all month. The news is good there the reopening in stimulus, negative for the markets china trade tensions are higher. Thats a bit of a negative and valuations you can see a number of negatives that are weighing on the markets approxima you got a deal with the valuations and with the stimulus issues as well back to you. Bob, thanks very much as you mentioned, tech is higher today led by the chip stocks nvidia, amd and lam research the xlk is down 10 in september so far lets bring in josh lipton for more on this september swoon josh kelly, it has not been an easy month for apple bulls even with todays gains that stock is on track for its worth month now since november 2018 that stock is still up about 100 from the march low. The semis down about 10 from this recent record high. Were seeing high flier get hit hard names we talked a lot about like flr nvidia and amd with the proposed acquisition of arm could be the next intel. Finally, Cloud Software names also slumping. Check out the clou on track for its worth month since march. Pipers brent bracelet who covers the sector tells me the cloud transition is real its accelerating. What has changed, he says, Risk Appetite and valuation his top three pick, zendesk, dwdw twilio and salesforce. What is the biggest driver of the market lets bring in lindsay bell. Why is the market acting the way its acting . Had this really impressive run in summer into the beginning of september it increased valuation just like you guys talked about. Thats a level we havent seen in more than 20 years. I think that we are in a volatile month and theres this lack of information flow you listed out very nicely all the concerns that are on investors minds. Those are concerns that have been persistent for a couple of months now why the worry and focus now. Theres a lack of focus on other things like earnings, for example or especially one of the key topics is stimulus we have seen that really removed from key head lieps in receline days the market as such is acting in a bit of an erratic wave ov last several days it does feel that way and to hear you put sharp point on it like that is comforting. Larry, let me turn to you and obviously there are a couple of sort of binary trades. Theres tech versus nontech there are consumer cyclicals and theres the reopening trade versus the stay at home trade. On that, where would you put fresh money now in the reopening trade or in the stay at home trade . Where is the greater opportunity . Yeah, i would continue to put money with the stay at home trade. As ive been on the show before we talked about the k recovery where you want to be at the top half of the k where you have visibility of earnings and you can see where the earnings are being revised higher thats where youre going to continue to see the best earnings Going Forward thats where i would continue to put it you mentioned tech one of the things that people continue to talk to me about is tech looks expense tifr. Well have Earnings Seasons coming up here soon starting october 26th for the pick tech names. They come in about 7 above their earnings expectations. That kind of draws back some of that thought that a lot of people think is in the sector. You know, lindsay, let me turn back to sort of whats driving the market the market has its own mind and goes off in its own directions i would have bet last night, as i was watching what was going on in various cities across the country that the market would have hard time digesting the social unrest that were feeling right now. There is a debate on tuesday night. Who knows which way its going to be and how nasty it could get. Theres an election coming up. Theres a lot of uncertainty and division in the country. The country seems to be raging in many ways yet the market is up 200 points today. Its unfortunate. History shows the market doesnt react to social unrest i think the president ial debates, v. P. Debates will add a little more volatility to the market tarn days those are on. I think the market is forward looking. Its forward looking mechanism they care about Earnings Growth. Stocks like the follow the trend in Earnings Growth what we have seen from earnings over the last several weeks is they are moving higher for 2021, believe it or not. You usually see numbers come down we had the housing numbers that are a bellwether on the health of the economy and the confidence of individuals. Let me turn back to you, larry, if i might obviously, the election can effect the market. What can the market and its actions in these days and months tell us potentially about the election i think you bring up a great point. If you look at the s p 500 its been one of the best predictors of who will win the election its called the election 87 of the time the way it does that is you look at the performance three months before the election. If its up, it adviser the favor the incumbent. If its down, it adviser to favor the challenger if you think back to september 2nd, we were up about 7 that was for an easy victory for President Trump. When you look at the polls and predicted and the betting markets that had a little inconsistent story there the fact we have pulled back and right around plus or minus where we were, i think thats more consistent with the fact we are in a toss up leaning towards a Vice President biden win Going Forward. I would keep a close eye on that i understand cater through the election thank you very much to both of you kelly. Amazon is holding a virtual product event today with some announcements. Lets get the details. Kelly, that event just wrapped up about ten minutes ago. For amazon, is more just 45 minutes into that event they announced these things a new line up of echo devices. Three new ring products, a mini drone like ring camera and among other thing, a new game streaming service, luna. We have seen this. The idea is they put all these devices out there and see what sticks amazon, however, eleases a wid range of in digging into the gaming piece of this probably the most significant announcement. It collects to the cloud rather than a local device. There will be more controls but there will also be more features one that caught my attention was the abilities of alexa to pick up more sounds they gave examples to snoring to dog barks. Useful but unnerving this ability to do more but the ability to learn more about us its a lot unnerving but at the same time people keep buying it and finding a lot of these features useful. Im sure they will say the baby crying can serve as a baby monitor. You and i have a lot of experience with those. You put all these different devices into one handy voice controlled one and again and again convenience takes the priority over privacy concerns not for everybody but for quite a few. Right it can track the baby cries and turn on a light so you can continue to sleep. There was positive privacy feature thats come out of this which many have been asking for. Thats the abilities to tell amazon and alexa to not keep any recordings of your voice in the past or the future there is that abilities but i dont believe that ability is default. That perhaps is the next step. Of course, as the features widen out, as we get more and more ohm this, we need even more Privacy Protection its interesting they are trying to get that balance and that was very much on stage today on the virtual stage today throughout that hour long event compare it with rock the baby back to sleep because turning on the light will not do it for me. Thank you very much. Coming up, well have more on the markets, technology and utilities leading the s p 500 now. Health care is the only sector in the red rising jobless claims. The latest sign of a sluggish economy or a recovery that seems to be slowing as we are now 40 days from the november election. What does it mean for President Trumps chances . We have those details. More power lunch right after this welcome back jay powell testifying o Congress Third day in row hes been doing that hes not the only fed official speaking this week their comments may be confusing and unsettling to the markets. St. Louis fed president James Bullard said a sort of full recovery could be within reach by the end of the year if Third Quarter gdp grows at 35 and Fourth Quarter gdp grows at 10. 3 . He also said unemployment could substantially decline because businesses are proving they know how to adapt to this pandemic. However, some of his colleaguesc tools like kwaunquantity taifti easing may not be a response jay powell said the fed is nowhere near pulling back on its blan balance sheet. We are a buy and hold i ve investor we allowed assets to maytuture d run off on their own we wont start doing that until way down the road. In the range of outlooks from fed officials just underscores the death of uncertainty all these things are tied up together back over the you. Here to make sense of that fed speak including more bullish comments from James Bullard, diane joins us now what do you think the fed is trying to do here . Well, i think its clear that fed chairman powell is pleaing congress for more aid and many of the fed president s agree with him. The outlier is bullard even though he acknowledges the role the stimulus played in supporting the economy early on. I think they are having a real problem with communications these days, i do think theres a sort of underlying commonality in terms of what the fed can do to cure what ails us and they are limited. They are running out of rabbits to pull out of a hat chair powell has emphasized this is the role that fiscal policy must play. Theres the short term and long term issues here. In the short run they are trying to get congress to pass another stimulus bill but in the longer run they are trying to persuade markets they are serious about letting inflation hit 2 and run bovr th above that do you think that accounts for the mixed messages now if we were to get another covid bill they talk about let it rip . This is really an interesting issue. I think its really important to understand what the fed appears to have agreed on. They have agreed they are willing to overshoot on inflation a bit to allow raiwag to rise as a share they get back the 3. 5 unemployment as soon as possible and let it run for a little bit. If markets believe them is not great for profit share in the u. S. Economy and its not as good for Financial Markets but better for main street than wall street that said, with the fed raise rates, the trajectory matters. The fed would not hesitate to raise rates if inflation moved up from 1. 5 to 3 the trajectory of that matters too. They would then have to deal with that. What we worry the most about is that if congress doesnt provide aid, you could have enough consolidation and a supply side shot that you have a price increase at the same time the economy is still stagnating. You threw in about how if the fed were to achieve this goal, it would be bad for markets because it means a profit share of the economy would shrink. No one seems that concerned about that right now thab they think well worry about today and take that issue tomorrow if and when it comes. They havent been able to sustain 2 inflation yet alone go above it. If they run the economy a bit warm to allow for more inclusive which is really new language for the fed growth and it really implies a raising share. Were seeing the wages slerts in the latter part of the expansion before they raise rates and wont be preemptive about inflation. The market says fine thats what youre telling us. You havent been able to achiever it in quite a long time we dont really believe you yet. He predicted a thinker quarter gdp growth rate north of 35 , do you believe that is plausible and what does that mean does that mean 35 higher than in the second quarter. 35 faster than what much of that comes from the fact we had a sharp rebound in may and june also you had to do is hold onto some of that growth in july and august which we have been able to do to get those kinds of numbers. You can have a slow down in september and still get those kinds of figures of close to 30 . Not quite as aggressive as that. Thats an annualized growth rate the gains dont make up for the losses right there even if employment picks up i think the issue is were still in the hole by quite a bit, much more than the great recession. Bang. You nailed the point that was my next question was going to be do those growth rates mean our economy will be bigger than it was a year ago . Back to the levels of output of year ago and you shade your head no what is bullards gain here . Why is he so out of step with his other fed folks . Does he have his eye on some other job, what . I dont want to get into speculating why not he has been an outlier for a while. Its not my job. Out of my lane its important to understand hes been out of step with his colleagues on this for some time most economists have agreed upon is the course of the virus and the course of the pandemic determines the course of the recovery what were seeing is a resurgence in cases in the u. S. And europe thats a real problem going into the Fourth Quarter we really are very concerned i share erics concerns about a second wave and what that might mean for the u. S. Economy. We have Small Businesses permanently closing. Its important the lose those employers out there and see doors shudder for good thank you very much we appreciate your time. Stimaheall ahead, the fed h changed calls for more stimulus from congress. Can a deal get done . We have the latest plus a new bank of America Survey says more people are waiting for a vaccine to travel again. We will break down what that means for the credit card stocks i felt like. I was just fighting an uphill battle in my career. So when i heard about the applied Digital Skills courses, im thinking i can become more marketable. You dont need to be a computer expert to be great at this. These are skills lots of people can learn. I feel hopeful about the future now. For skin as alive as you are. Dont settle for silver gold bond champion your skin with the icon that does the same. The rx, crafted by lexus. Lease the 2020 rx 350 for 409 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. We have a news alert julia has it tyler, viacom cbs probed and resolved a Sexual Misconduct allegation against the ceo the board independent review concludesed and the investigation did not support the allegation the complaint was made by a former employee of nickelodeon channel and hes been ceo of the combined Company Since they merged less than a year ago. This comes after cbs former ceo resigned after allegations of Sexual Misconduct, harassment and intimidation kelly, heightened awareness of these issues now back over to you the stock is holding on the about a half a percent gain. Airline travel picking up but nowhere near prepandemic levels bank of America Surveyed 25,000 people around the world which showed more people are waiting for a vaccine before they will feel comfortable flying than in june others are waiting for restrictions to be lifted. This could trickle into the credit card stocks that rely heavily on travel spending lets bring in research analyst. Whats the most important take away from these findings first of all, thank you for having me today. Id like to point outprehensiven conjunction with our airline and Hospitality Team we had over 25,000 respon dents around the world one of the over arching take aways in a set of broadly characterized as mixed results, 27 of those surveyed say they will not fly until theres a vaccine widely available keep in mind we did a very similar survey three months ago and the number was 24 at that point in time. From that perspective, the willingness to travel is gotten a bit worse. Conversely, one data point that was actually a little bit better this time around was the percentage of respondents who said they will not fly again, period, regardless of a vaccine. That number was 15 three months ago and only 8 in the latest it ration of our survey you cover visa and mastercard at your day job among other t j things what do you think the implications are for these names . Its important to remember that visa and master card make a disproportionate about of their revenue and profit specifically from cross boarder travel. Domestic travel is one thing but cross boarder travel we think is a much bigger hurdle in terms of getting consumers back on planes that go across borders what we found is that 60 , nearly 60 of our respon dents say they will not travel internationally until, at least, the second half of 2021 or when a vaccine is available and so thats going to continue to be a head wind. More from a revenue and a profit perspective than purely from a payment volume perspective because they do make richer yields on those cross border transactions i think thats the most salient data point for them. Absolutely. If what youre saying is it could be some time before that comes back, does that mean the spell is broken and these stocks, these are huge momentum plays, Big Hedge Fund interest great places to kind of hide out in the market over the past several years. Does that mean theyre not going to be able to hold that position any longer i wonder if theres anyone else that this benefits or if its a case of a different type of market for them Going Forward. We dont think the story is over for visa and mastercard they are going through a tough patch because of covid19 and it is hitting the most profitable part of their business i think for the most part investors have been willing to look through the near term head winds and focus on the long term prospects for visa and mastercard which have arguably never been better. Specifically, what i mean by that is we do anticipate an acceleration in the displacement of cash globally when it comes to Consumer Payments cash is viewed as being unhygienic and theres a much bigger push across the economy ultimately that will be a tail wind for visa and mastercard that does mean at the same time for the next 12 months or so you will have some of these pressures in the cross border business i think thats fairly well understood by the Investment Community and the focus is more on the long term competitive modes and prospect for more cash tis placement. Fascinating jason, thanks for joining us appreciate it. Thank you for having me ahead, jobless claims climbing higher. Is the need for a stimulus package growing more dire . As the country pushes to move past the coronavirus crisis, some things will likely never return to normal well take a tour of what the post pandemicworkplace might look like and markets on track for their worst month since march. Which stocks still safe the buy. A top tech anymonician will wein who is usaa made for . Its made for him a veteran who honorably served and its made for her shes serving now we also made usaa for military spouses and their kids become a member. Get an insurance quote today. Welcome back here is your cnbc news update. White House Press Secretary seeking to clear up any confusion over how President Trump will respond to the results of this novembers election this a day after the president declined to endorse a peaceful transfer of power following the election the president will accept the results of a free and Fair Election senator Bernie Sanders warning that President Trump is openly suggesting if he loses he will say the election is ill legitimate sanders is calling for an independent commission to oversee the election and protect the nations democracy this is not just an election between donald trump and joe biden. This is an election between donald trump and the democracy and democracy must win the europe, france reporting a three and a half month high of covid19 patients in intensive care units and in britain new infections have soared to their highest level since the pandemic began. Both countries putting in tighter restrictions this week to try and stem the surge. You are up to date thats the news update this hour ty, back to you. Thank you very much. Stocks now just off the highs of the day but still well off the lows of the day when the dow was down more than 200 points earlier this morning the s p 500 up three quarters of a percent. Nasdaq up a little more than that or 92 points. Initial jobless claims did rise slightly to 870,000 in the past week. Its definitely down from the lies we saw this summer but each of the past four weeks have seen between 850 and 900,000 people filing benefits for the first time thats leading to more calls for government stimulus but the government doesnt seem to be able to make a deal now. Kayla has the latest state of play for us. Nancy pelosi is meeting with Democratic Leaders this afternoon to try to chart the next course of action on Coronavirus Relief according to senior democratic aids pelosi has instructed Committee Chairs to come up with smaller package that would serve as a starting block for talks with the white house. The house could pass the package as soon as next week it comes as a stand alone effort for ppp is gaining some steam in the house and as a deadline for airlines looms ahead of planned layoffs october 1st. On capitol hill today Stephen Mnuchin said he coordinated closely with pelosi to reach a deal on government funding which is senate is expected the pass next week and mnuchin expressed some hope they could coordinate on relief. Ive probably spoken to speaker spea Speaker Pelosi 15 or 20 times and we agreed to have discussions a bbout the cares at reporter while officials have gone back and forts on whether the economy needs that much relief injected into it at this point of the recovery we asked voters across six key battleground states and twothirds of voters said the economy needs help from washington to recover and one third said its Strong Enough on its own. Thanks very much. With the president election just 40 days away, the economy will issue among swing state voters with trump barely leading biden on the economy right now, how big a role will that play in deciding the race for the white house. There are the hot issues that you see right there. Ben white is chief economic correspondent at politico as well as a cnbc districtecontrib. Earlier this year, mr. Trump had a wide lead over mr. Biden on stewardship of the economy now its tight thats exactly right. He had a lead many the double sdwr digits something around 14 he was ahead on who would be better to guide this economy that was precovid19. Thats when we had a bit faster growth, Corporate Tax cuts, markets rocking ahead. That lead hasevaporated. Markets did recover quite a bit. That doesnt necessarily translate to how everybody feels about the economy. I think if you talk to people inside the Biden Campaign which i do, they are pretty excited about the fact they have erased trumps advantage nap was the thing he would win on. Im the guy who can keep this economy rocking, keep markets rocking. Obviously, that hasnt happened partly not his fault partly you could blame some of the Covid Response as you have talked about, the economy did recover significantly over a couple of months but its plateaued. Jobless claims are very high the if the has been proven that we have gotten to know him is a pretty good counter puncher if numbers that will come out in october will show a continuing decline on unploemployment and b growth if it shows 35 growth, the president will be able to use that the question then to me becomes how is he standing in the swing states on the economy like florida, north carolina, michigan, wisconsin, nevada . How do the swing voters in those states feel about the economy and their prospects. Youre right he is going to get strong job Growth Numbers in the coming months perhaps not enough to he place what we lost still, not get us back to where we were. The challenge to say put the numbers in concontext, look at w far we have fallen if theres an october surprise, it will be that. I would say in the state, florida is the big enchilada i think it becomes difficult for the president to win reelection if he cant carry florida. By contrast, biden needs, but its not critical he win florida. Exactly right very quickly if trump wins then it comes doin to the mid western states. Biden can still win. Biden wins florida probably all over trump wins it, then it comes to those midwest states you just talked about thanks very much. I like the beard thank you coming up next, the stay at home stocks like zoom, peleton are under pressure a top technician says one of them is about to double. What will the Office Look Like well hear from thceof ae o Company Creating postpandemic work spaces. More power lunch is next [ engines revving ] its amazing to see them in the wild like th shhh. For those who were born to ride, theres progressive. Welcome back choppy day for stocks. Lets check in with the bond market rick even though we looked at initial claims only slightly hire than last week, basically lateral move continuing claims a bit lower, they were disappointing. We had really strong new home sales. Turned it around a bit 7year notes since august. Here is st chart 46 basis points where the off went off today the all time low closes at 35. It was a below average auction its breaking its own fiveday streak to the down side with regard to currencies we talked earlier about James Bullards comment os on the yea. Once you annualize all of those, you end up with a 2 gdp for the year right about where we left off precovid. Kelly, back to you thank you. Many of you havent been back to your office in a while if you ever do go back, it could look different well show you the office of the future were watching a big market e bod. Thdow up shy of 200 points were back in a couple we got no free pass. Everything we have, weve earned. The unmistakable lexus is. Get zero percent financing on the 2020 is 300. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Welcome back Many Americans have not been back to the office since middle of march, some may never go back those that do will find things look much different than they did before bob pisani takes us inside the new office of our future work spaces are being reimagined. This is to create a Work Environment that is productive, delightful and safe. This is one of the largest manufacturers of officer furniture, desks, chairs, storage products, and office pods hates a lot of ideas and partnering with mit. We know the six foot rule is not realistic. Particles travel through the air based on models that mit built so using the models to test different kinds of furniture configurations to identify which furniture will best protect the workforce in the future. These screens allow colleagues to Work Together without direct facetoface interaction. Other work stations are oriented to 90degree angles, height adjustable desks and Free Standing screens add extra protection severing mobile from desks and screens to white boards and power. Giving employees more control over their Work Environment. Every company is going to offer the employees the option to work from it home a day or two a week as a result, you have to size the office for the peak load think about how many people are going to be in the office midweek. That will define real estate offices in the future. Even the workplace cafe is being rethought. By staggering tables and chairs and making liberal use of plants that allow employees to get together at a safe distance. And expect a lot more Video Technology to keep teams connected when they cant be in the same space sanitation stations and signage will be everywhere constantly reminding people to wash their hands and keep their distance theyre with colleagues for their own personal development and job security and um pact they can have on their Company GlobalWorkplace Analytics is forecasting that once the covid19 crisis is over, 25 to 30 of the workforce will continue to work from home at least one day a week and a large percentage of the people they have surveyed, up to 40 , will be happy to work at home 2 1 2 to three days a week work from home is not going to go away. You know, ill pick it up there, bob what is interesting to me in part is that i think that when people come back to the office, theyre doing and gathering for Different Reasons than they did before the basic fundamental labor can be done at home probably most of the time but youll gather to go do brainstorming sessions or on occasion where you really need to be together which implies different furniture. This could be a heyday for steel case and herm an miller and the other makers yes, collaboration is what youre going to do in the workplace. You do other things at home. And they found that young people really want that collaborative process more than anyone theyre the Biggest Group that would like to work at work in the office a little bit more collaboration and the mentoring process that goes along with that, tyler. All right thank you very much, bob yesterday at this time, stocks were selling off and we were warned nasdaq 10,000 was a key level to watch. We didnt get anywhere near that the so should we believe in todays tech rebound well ask a market technician and hell tell us which of these soaring stocks may stay at home stocks could keep rising there are three tm. Ofhe peloton, docusign, zoom. The market is swinging wildly today the dow hanging on to 100 points the s p 500 trickled much lower. The so has nasdaq in this past hour we were up more than 300 points about an hour ago. Fwhoun group sitting tout days rebound have been the stay at home stocks. But those names have soared since the march 23rd market lows with peloton up nearly 300 . Are they heading for a selloff lets start with the markets in general. What do you see there . What do the charts tell you . All roads lead back to technology put into context where we came from keep in mind in 83 surge off the march lows which was uncorrected in the ndx and 60 in the s p 500, it left us overbought, overowned and overloved as we went into the worst month historically with stocks with cases rising and staring down the prospect of a contested election it is a recipe for a pull back dont lose hope here, tyler. I remain a bhier uyer of technoy tech dominance stillen tact. You pull back support of the 100 moving day average youre down 14 . That is consistent with that 80 surge. Importantly, oversold and now overshorted with ndx positioning at its most shorted in over 12 years. Thats a recipe for a rally, tyler. We need the key to unlock it i think we get it. Im a buyer still. I like this trend. We have an explosive finish coming up. Let the record show, i want to be overowned, overbought and overloved, thats all i ask. Of what do the charts say there . We have about 40 seconds from the outside, it was evident that they would ride if you want to be a buyer, look no further than the namesake p peloton itself i think the stock can double from here again. 90 goes to 180. Our jooutstanding analyst sees double digit revenue growth. There is nothing wrong with that in this type of market you want to be a buyer of zoom as well. Ill leave it there and turn it back to you. Thank you very much, rich quick answers. We really appreciate it. Im closing in, by the way, on 150 peloton rides, kelly wow how about that . Thats fantastic. Off to the races. Was the france vud coucovid19 they were up over 16,000 versus 13,000 the day before. Thast is a new all time high and its thefourth record in eight days the may have something to do with the weakness that were starting to experience absolutely. Some states in the u. S. Have seen increased case counts as well thats right. And that does it for power lunch, everybody. Tyler has to hop on his bike closing bell starts right now. It certainly does its been a roller coaster session on wall street the nasdaq is both up and down just the dow at the moment as well is still higher lets have a look at what is driving the action this morning. Excuse me. This afternoon mixed data hitting the tape today. New home sales topped forecasts. Investors digesting a slew of fed speakers chair powell warning of down side