A rally after the fashion giant sports a boost and trades higher on a 50 jump in revenues Boris Johnson with brexit treaty as Parliament Backs the Parliament Bill as a warning it will support trade talks the eu has not taken that particular revolver off the table. I hope we can do so and reach a canadastyle Free Trade Agreement as well. Thank you for joining me today. Let me take you straight to the iea monthly report across the industry what we are hearing is that Global Oil Supply is risen by 1. 1 Million Barrels a day in the month of august as opec plus eased cuts but was down at 9. 3 Million Barrels from a year ago, so still a decline follows two months of gains in the recoveries stalled in august production in the United States fell by. 4 Million Barrels a day as hurricane laura forced precautionary shut ins the resurgence of covid 19 cases, local lockdown measures continue telly working and the Airline Industry has led to downward revisions of demand estimates for the third and Fourth Quarter what we are also seeing for next year for 2021, longer Term Forecast expects the iea to grow as china continues to grow strongly while india is showing renewed weakness just a quick line on what we are expecting to see recovery in global refining, slow from august to october due to the hurricane shutdowns. So various different elements here, head of the oil industry markets. Thank you for sharing the report with us. Walk us through the significance of the Main Elements i think the main message we put across in the report is the sentiment seems to be weakening. Weve seen oil prices range from the middle to the later part in june between 14. 40 a barrel for brent. Weve seen 40 a barrel tested it does look as if the rebound in recovery is beginning to stall partly in europe because of the covid resurgence you talked about on the supply side, we are seeing the higher production from the members of the opec plus agreement which has been signaled well in advance at the moment, we have weakening sentiment and rising supply. It does look as if the stock draw we were anticipating for the second half of the year. Although still likely to have occurred, will not be as great as we thought a couple of months ago. Do you want to get to the demand side and impacts of the second wave as a number of people come back from a second wave particularly in europe. A lot of people still working from home despite various governments. What are the impacts of these as weve been living for a while at the level of operating and no travel coming into the mix we are all learning as we go along here because of the impact of covid was very, very dramatic in the early part of the year particularly in april or may as far as Global Oil Demand is concerned. We saw them come down. As lockdown has eased, we have seen demand start to recover nobody really expects that National Lockdowns will be reimposed, we are seeing localiz localized measures a lot of people working from home and are reluctant to use public transport there is a trag ill sentiment out there. We are learning as we go along the up surge we are seeing in europe in particular is cause for concern and does look like we are not out of the woods yet. I want to get to the Hurricane Impact we saw twin storms approaching the United States. The ferocious nature and the degree of shutdowns across the industry how significant was that hurricane event . At its peek, the hurricane lower impact at the very peek was about 1. 6 Million Barrels a day. It averages out 4. 4 million for the month as a whole there are more storms gathering and is impokt what that impact will be. In the next couple of days, ill start to see precautionary measures taken as we look up from the supply demand point of view at a time when supply is rising and we are starting to see a sloppier oil market. The fall off in supply caused by the hurricane is not a serious issue as far as that is concerned. We have decent numbers out today and retail sales giving us a sense of unfolding in china. Delivering for september and october paints a more alarming picture. Painting the demand and what that says for the chinese recovery the demand for oil products in china has been very strong, since the lockdown ease and Economic Activity starts to give back to normal levels. As you said, those numbers are looking strong as far as crude oil is concerned this is an important point since april, china has taken advantage of low oil prices and stocks of crude oil. As we are moving in september and october, we have seen stocks are starting to become very full the small independent tea pot have exhausted their import quotas there are bottlenecks in chinese ports as far as offloading oil the demand is starting to go down that has been one of the props we have seen since april that is one of the warning sign that leads us to conclude Market Sentiments is weakening. Looking at the oil upside and storage elements, what do you make for the appetite to draw more of the product into storage . Well, we are starting to see signs that floating storage might be on the rise again as you know earlier in the year where we have surfaces in the market, those chartered to store oil off shore and to land. Just in the last few days, we read that the rising volume of cargos that the leading traders are shuttling again. We have seen an upsurge for oil and products in september. Again, it is all a sign of weakening sentiment. I want to get into the trend you are witnessing more. You dedicated a whole page to the tele working showing the low Single Digits for the people who work from home and escalated to 40 or 50 . Those are stunning figures the picture you are painting seems to suggest, unless you see the results of a vaccine or more returning back to work, you do have a fundamental shift in the picture for oil. That could well be the case the uk where you are is a very good example as you very well know commuting costs are high in the uk and a lot of people meet for significant time in the day. If they can do their job from home and cut out commuting time and cost, they are going to do that that may be true in other countries as well. It will be simple to say no other country is doing that again. Homeworking, tele working will be increasingly important for the normal portion of the working life that will have implications for commuting patterns and countries where car workings will have an impact on fuel into the future we wrote that piece because we think that is a very, very interesting issue and well do a lot of work on it to try to understand what the trends are looking further forward, so watch this space we want to get into the price action where we are placing the supply story you are placing in the support. There has been almost a core relation in the stock market that coincides with a similar time what will you make well witness from here up or down side of this point i said in the beginning, it looks as if the brent price, i havent checked, it has been testing 40, up to 45 and towards 50 weve seen a whole of the future price for brent and wti, the whole curve has moved down the increase in price as youve seen a few months ahead is not that dramatic. Increasingly, if you look at the price for physical oil and the dated brent price, that was around the same price as the first month for futures for quite a long time and indeed above it also. We are now seeing significant discount for dated brent for the first month of the futures and that is a very clear sign that the markets are getting sloppy yes, you could see a return to volatility in perhaps the downward direction likely more than upwards well have to wait and see i appreciate that july and august looked a little more stable than the first part of this month. Thank you for highlighting that to the audience appreciate the detail. Head of the oil industry and markets division at iea. Lets look at european markets as we move throughout the morning session in europe. The early picture has been choppy moving to positive territory a lot of brexit chatter seeming to sku this trade. Yesterday, we were down about a 10th today up two tenths. The ftse mib sliding a little in the trading session today. Yesterday, the French Market broke ranks. It was one of the only markets that was positive. Showing a little caution this morning. The best and worst performers starting with the green spots and a bounce in retail with reports from Major Players the likes of h m and stocks moving from the grocery side to discretionary clothing elements seeing retail pop to the top basic resources with a 1 gain the Industrial Production numbers certainly giving the resources sector a higher day today. Health care stocks, constructional material and travel and leisure improving today. Some of the worst hit sectors. Banking stocks sliding at this stage. There has been a lot of chatter about consolidation. This time between Credit Suisse and ubs. We are on the cusp of this fed meeting, so the markets watching closely central policy at this stage. Telecoms, insurance and Financial Services chinese retail rose in the month of august and beating analyst expectations industrial output accelerated to 5. 6 the fastest in eight months. Data out of china today tells us a few things, mainly that they are bouncing back from the virus quicker from all three indicators beat forecasts. Also that the recovery is now becoming more consumer led than by fixed asset that is because retail sales grew for the first time. We knew consumption has been lagging amid lingering worry and the virus forcing many people to tighten their belts. This does suggest that Consumer Confidence is picking up we have seen evidence in that in a jump to auto sales in the month of august. So adding to signs now that Chinese Consumer is more willing to part with their cash. Out for the fifth straight month, so continuing to give the economy more boost the industrialout put side of things is leading this recovery in part to domestic as well received the support for Infrastructure Project leading to the challenges like the virus and tensions between the u. S fixed Asset Investment fell. 3 for the year still a negative reading but improvement for the first seven months of the year and thanks to more Government Support as well. What this data does tell is that this is a strong domestic driver in this country and the strategy the government has been talking about which aims to be less reliance on exports and more focused on the economy it expects to see a more targeted approach by the Chinese Central Bank for more parts of the economy that need it the most back to you. Coming up on the show, the creation of a Swiss Banking giant. We are looking into reports that Credit Suisse and ubs are considering a massive merger the fed kicks off its twoday meeting later today and detailed new inflation target and forecast for the next three years. Seen steady and keeping rates unchanged. The head of the department at bis told cnbc and other Central Banks will be closely following this fed meeting the fact as a result of its very wide consultations and narrow and transportation process. The devil is in the details. Exactly what the implications are going to be will depend on how the fed will be implementing the strategy put forward this is an important decision for the central Banking Community in general the fed is an intellectual leader it is also the central bank that issues the International Currency that has the implication worldwide. Well be looking at the bank closely and draw their own conclusions. Reportedly drawn up a plan to launch a rival with Credit Suisse sources claim the deal could be struck in early 2021 and could put 15,000 jobs at risk. Also saying the Swiss Banking regulator and finance minister aware of the plan. Spains caixa bank is working on a deal with bankia that offers a premium as much as 22 over bankias average share price they declined to comment Fiat Chrysler and psa in a deal in a move that will cut special dividend and move that would cut the psa spinoff. As the crisis has gone on, clearly it has made a difference and now the difference to not make up that special dividend to share holders. That is right whether this merger would go through on the environment. It was agreed before the crisis because everybody had shared dramatically while the two had given up early in the year, there was a special dividend that the fca was supposed to receive as part of the deal there was this question and a report to hold on to the cash given the change of the economic environment and the outlook of the crisis also an element of economic pressure with fca receiving the loans for 6 billion euros and whether it was wise to give out this huge amount of money in special dividends. The two companies saying they have amended the terms of this measure with the dividend now at 2. 9 billion euros instead of the 5. 5 originally agreed. The element in the deal will be the stake in the deal that 46 stake that will be a spin off to its own orders and have been delayed after the merger and on the mergers of both fca and mergers. Those shares sending them lower down about 8 . Other elements also in the revised terms of the agreement is that they are actually higher than expected. As they are over 5 billion euros from 3. 7 billion one thing is the calendar still aimed at closing the merger for the First Quarter of 2021. Interesting to see one of these megadeals before and weve seen many of them collapse because of the crisis weve seen these two companies accepting to change the terms of the merger to make it go through. One of the final hurdles will be the commission, depth they open in the Small Business to be concluded in midoctober and whether they need the companies to set part of those businesses to help get the green light from the regulator in europe. Psa shares were in the green and now down fiat shares are up more than 5 in milan just looking at the share Price Performance and the number of stocks is so uneven across europe youve seen renault slightly slim down 70 . Versus the 25 of psa. So very uneven as the investors judge ahead of the head winds of covid19 you can see the share price there. Its extraordinary to see such unevenness we are Getting Better news out of the sector. H m expects to make a profit in the Third Quarter as an up tick and stronger cost control led to a better than expected recovery. Revenue fell 19 missing forecast while 200 of the Retail Stores remain closed that is improved from where it started out on the quarter to ocado as the demand surged. The online groecer went up. Certainly pushing on the news to the release today trying to give investors a view as to how they see the tie up the Grocery Sales up year over year in the retail according to Market Research company. Defending its top spot as the largest retail grocer in the uk. Ocado increased their share of the market coming up, Boris Johnson fights the law and wins as the controversial brexit bill passes the first houses hurdle these are your headlines fca and psa with shifting gears on their tie up to cut their special dividend and sending shares higher. The h m spike after the giant reports a Third Quarter profit boost and ocado reports a 50 jump in revenues fires across western america are proch are prompting clashes between President Trump and joe biden. And the hurricane along the eastern coastlines citing a widespread of resurgence cases we have weakening sentiments on demand and rising supply. It does look at the moment that the stock draws we are anticipating on the year likely to occur are not likely to be as great as we thought a couple of months ago lets take you to some of the action in europe green brushing up in europe here in the uk. As sterling is poached close to the 9 mark and brexit classifications. Retail, one of the better areas of the market. Dax trading weaker than the stocks those markets in lock step with the uk sterling stronger this morning. Dollar gaining in the Foreign Exchange markets watching the twoday fed meeting and ramifications for the dollar as weve been watching closely. Lets move on for futures in the United States today. We are setting up for a slightly higher session today the markets for nasdaq up 1. 9 less on the major markets and the s p up about 1. 25 as we are moving to the green. The legislation could wreck any chance of a trade deal by the end of the year. That win for Boris Johnson yesterday but many are wondering what the strategy is at the stage. Is it a negotiating tactic or the policy that Boris Johnson thought it could be that would ruin the trade agreement indeed the big question at this stage is that this part of the negotiations or the uk government actually doesnt mind not reaching with the agreement with the eu by the end of the year this legislation has implications also in domestic policy and not just about the conflict with the European Union. That was clear yesterday during the debate in the house of commons. Also divisions within the ruling party itself 0 on the one hand conservative lawmakers saying they could not approve this bill that would breach International Law that would be part of the uk law. On the other hand, we have heard from other conservative lawmakers saying the eu has not been acting in good faith and there for the uk government can indeed change its commitments. We also heard from the Prime Minister himself made a comment that this is just an insurance policy against the eu. What we are seeking to do is to ensure this country, to protect this country against the eus proven willingness. Thats the Crucial Point to use this delicately balanced protocol in ways it was never intended this bill includes our first step to protect our country against such a contingency by creating a legal safety net and taking powers by reserve where they can guarantee the integrity of our u nighted kingdom we heard from the option party, the labor party where the leader was replaced given that he is self isolating at the moment he was not shy in criticizing the uk government and Boris Johnson him saying that Boris Johnson arrived and asking lawmakers to approve and return to parliament and ask the same law makes to override parts that previous agreement lets take a look. He cant blame john major or the Civil Service oregon there is only one person responsible for it thats him it is his deal, his mess, his failure. For the first time in his life, it is time to take responsibility time to fes up either he wasnt straight to the country about the deal in the first place or he didnt understand it. Lets see how these discussions will evolve in the coming days in the house of commons and in the house of lords so we can figure out whether there is room to come up with a trade agreement thank you for setting the scene for us joining us now, the founder and cochair of that research lets walk through the detail in your view. What is taking place here in Northern Ireland where revisions are set up and derailing the deal where we are coming down to the wire. That is the question europeans are asking, why has he reopened something settled after three years . The reason this is about Northern Ireland this was the most difficult and sensitive area and it took three years and the fall of two Prime Ministers to resolve why is he going back to it i think there are several possible explanations. Ill say three or four explainations. First of all, it will be that it is just a bluff that he is just trying to draw attention from the other european leaders to try and get them to override Michelle Barnier and the commission and negotiate directly with the British Government and he thinks hell get a better deal. Second, he realizes hes going to have to back down on some of his demands particularly from fisheries and the socalled level Playing Field and make as much noise as possible and garner as much support from hard line brexiters and saying im not backing down, it only happened as a result of the confrontation. He actually does want to break down in the negotiations he wants a hard brexit he wants a no deal he wants the freedom and sovereignty that hes been advocating for the main reason and he wants to provoke the eu into walking out rather than walking out himself. The final possibility is that it is all a bluff in the sense that he knows he wont actually be able to get this law through parliament through all the stages in the commons and the laws by the end of the year. Hes just making a lot of fuss over something that isnt going to happen. Those are the four possibilities. Frankly, they are all pretty disconcerting for the british economy and for the markets and investments and sterling assets. It is quite startling at this point if we see that is what Boris Johnson is angeling for. We have seen 7,000 jobs and 5 million workers temporarily away from work. They are trying to avert a further down the more deep you go, the more economic scars you are left with it would be extraordinary on top of no deal witnessing britain has been the worst economy a midst the Major Economies in the world it has the weakest currency im afraid that next year will be even worse because of this combination because of the control and additional blow from anything that comes out of this negotiation. That and whatever it does will be very, very bad news even as it is described in the skinny, thin deal that is now the best Case Scenario will cause additional disruptions why is johnson doing it he thinks, he may be wrong that any additional problems generated by brexit will be overshadowed by the total enormous damage and in that sense, hed rather get all of the bad news out of the way. The corporate business, we call it kitchen sinking if youve got bad news, put it in one announcement, get it out of the way, see the stock price collapse and hope it will clear the way for better out look in the process. For the second half of the year, this is a very worrying outlook. In a trade deal, what we will see is a thin are agreement. If that ends up being the case, what will be the real upside for the European Union to actually reach that agreement another reason why Boris Johnson maybe decided on that hard line and an incredible disaster right now so they dont want to make things any worse a thin deal is actual the exports to britain, mostly in the manufactured results mostly a tariff free trade deal on goods left out completely by the government where they have exported a lot of manufacture goods and cars and food from france and italy to britain the thinness of his deal is more a challenge has been excluded. Most could be britain cells to europe are going to be subject at least in serious regulatory tariffs and the equivalence allowed to operate in the eu that can be withdrawn, i believe three weeks or the notice even under the kind of deal has been trying to negotiate. It would be quite good news for the union and less disastrous. Thank you we must say goodbye to you coming up, americas gulf coast braces for the second hurricane in less than a month more on that right after this. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. The u. S. Treasury department is reviewing bytedance or oracle as a trusted partner they believe the tie up will address the Trump Administration security concerns ahead of the deadline on 20th of september. Mnuchin first confirmed the move are pledging to keep american data safe. We did get a proposal over the weekend that includes oracle as the trusted Technology Partner with oracle making many reputations for National Security issues. There is also a commitment to create Tiktok Global as a u. S. Based company with 20,000 new jobs well review this week and make a recommendation to the president and review with him. Lets get to the professor of management and imd Business School thank you for joining us today getting into the background of what President Trump wanted that was the full sale of business of tiktok what weve got here is a partnership and ring fencing of american data. Do you think it will be enough he was angeling for the largeskael range for other American Companies i dont think here you would have too many options Going Forward. To illustrate how complex the current environment becomes. Out of all this drama, what you are seeing is everything is done on executive orders. It is very predictable beijing retaliate and say tiktok is not up for sales marley on the call of the underlying algorithm. Thats why this is really the new animal for the trusted partner trying to basically appease on both sides. It is out of this tension, you have a business getting squeezed by the government. This training configuration, we have seen for the first Time Beginning to emerge. Time will tell whether it is effective or not but having an independent auditor on the backstrokage. That might serve the purpose already. Showing how sophisticated the chinese lawyers are theyve dug up old cases they use as an example using oracles. Theyve come up with politics and 25,000 u. S. Jobs from the jobs in the United States currently. That plays in the Election Year and looking at the political contributions of Larry Ellison and some fundraising for trump in the past. It shows you how sophisticated the chinese are. Showing how important prag matism is. Looking at the political rhetoric and down to the fundamental, the fact. What is required for us to move forward . Tiktok in a way is the First Chinese company to successfully go global in day one it is not too surprising to see how the chinese is taking a more pragmatic approach to move the conversation forward and how to strike a deal so that tiktok as a whole could continue to thrive without losing complete control if they fall under the deal with microsoft here on the back of this deal, effectively, there was this report that rather this deal fall over for the tiktok algorithm where if they dont step in and defend, it dashes the mission as well. It looks like it is loose loose for china. It is loose loose for everyone if you think for a moment business only thrive when there is stability and predictability. The saga of tiktok really for the government on both sides to step in and use National Security as a reason to step in and intervene on the Business World makes it very difficult for the Business World to plan they are postponing in investment in r d and distribution precisely because they dont know how the event may unfold Going Forward with the rise and tension between two make yr economies. Howard, i remember a couple of years ago asking big tech players whether they were concerned about the escalation they are seeing on the trade front thinking they were dismissed and we wouldnt see tech trapped in these trade wars that is quite different now not just on the hardware side and social media do we need to rethink how the u. S. Businesses and tech businesses roll out global models from here absolutely. This is not a concern of the tech sector. You have the u. S. System, the china system and the european zone system as well. Harboring the ideology and value and how you go about protecting Data Companies can no longer pick side if you take the multinational and they let go of the economy of the world is almost suicidal. Going forward, the traditional playbook of Silicon Valley one great product and send around the world or in beijing or shenzhen, you go around the world is basically over. Thank you, howard professor at imd Business School u. S. President ial candidate joe biden call President Trump a political arsonist the commander and chief blamed poor Forest Management the fires have destroyed thousands of home and killed at least 36 people since august the offshore u. S. Oil production shut down again sally could make land fall as a category 3 storm in mississippi sparing refining operations in louisiana. Jay gray joins us now from alabama with the latest. What will we likely see with hurricane sally. Reporter lets start with the Current Conditions a bit of a spitting rain right now, a light breeze. The bay here calm at this point as we move through the day and into the evening here. Sally starts to move in. This is a massive storm. It is still gaining in momentum and strength it is slow moving. That may be the biggest issue. Water may be the biggest weapon of sally because forecasters are predicting a storm surge of 11 feet in some areas rain that could top a foot and a half so widespread flooding is going to be a serious issue with this storm as it starts to move in. Jay, thank you very much to run us through the latest with jay gray talking about the issues of hurricane laura at the start of the show you see the usage and demand for this month and we saw the impact on the supply side where we are watching closely here is a look now as we push on in the oil market from u. S. Features state side on the back of the positive session down from the s p and nasdaq where we saw the decent trade we are chasing more green today where these markets perched nicely from the start of the session and the markets look to be calmer this week after what weve witnessed in the tech sell off. In the green, we count you down to that trading session. That is all for todays show thank you for joining me our colleagues state side coming up next on worldwide exchange. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. It is 5 00 in new york call it the wall street whiplash stocks bouncing back tech, what else, back in charge and the stocks back in vogue but the cool kids, our next guest says you better brace. Shocking wild ride for one of wall streets hottest new stocks and sec has opened an investigation into nicola