The dow as the president says the u. S. Government should take a cut of its deal. Apple inches toward a 2 trillion market cap. The price were looking for to hit that level is 4. 6777 about 27 above where we are now. Apple is up 1 today gold topping 2,000 an ounce for the first time ever. The precious metal is up as the market attempts to price in a postpandemic recovery, there are new signs the road back could be longer and bumpier than experts think steve is digging into the data good afternoon. Even if the forecast of economists for the strong second half ebound pans out, the u. S. Economy is still going to be in the e kwif lenquivalent of a reb year end the Unemployment Rate forecast decline from 11. 1 now to 9. 8 by december. Look at those numbers and the 9. 8 Unemployment Rate would make it the third highest among recessions we have done a good job of taking it down from 15 . It would be e clipted by the surgeon jobless followed by the 81 and 08 recessions. Charlie evans talking to reporters yesterday said our outlook is its going to take us into the mid 2022 until we enjoy the level of growth we have at the beginning of 2019. The outlook for a slow recovery sleeving slack in the economy helping explain why the Federal Reserve is pointing toward long period of low rates and why it continues to look for ways to stimulate the economy despite a lot of stimulus so far ill get chance to ask some of these questions tomorrow morning. Sitting down with Federal Reserve vice chair to look at this outlook for the u. S. Economy. The extraordinary actions taken by the fed and what more they could be doing tyler. Steve, the new york fed out with a new study that black owned Small Businesses are feeling the pain of this economic setback the most. Can you tell us more detail . The study said that black owned businesses suffer a onetwo punch. First they were in the areas that were hardest hit by covid and second of all the ppp program did not do a good job of tailoring the aids it gave to Small Businesses to the hardest hit areas. They came into the crisis with fewer banking relationships, perhaps fewer stable businesses, then, for example, white owned businesses the recommendations is in naex round of ppp, its more targeted to areas hardest hit by covid. Tyler. Thank you very much when will we start to see the economic realities reflected welcome, folks joe, let me start with you can you have 10 unemployment and not be in a recession . Yeah. I think the technical deaf sifin of recession is when you stop falling. You would say when do i get back to where i was precovid even though the rescission may have ended last month, its going to be quite some time before we get back to where we were thats unfortunate i think the market will care more about where we are headed rather than the level we currently are at if you had to put a date on it, when do you think the economy will get back to where it was, lets say in january or february of this year . Its a great question our best estimates really around early 2022 again, theres going to be variation in that. Some parts of the economy we wont expect it will rebound more quickly i would say auto sales is a good example. Other sectors of the economy, anything with social intensity to it will be a number of years, if at all. You see some of that reflected in the equity market early 2022 assuming we have some progress on the vaccine headed into next year air travel, hospitality, vents, conventions would be hard hit there. Kevin, tell us a bit about whether you think, lets look forward to the day where we get a vaccine. Does the economy switch back on like that . Does the market take off like that or what the economy, its all going to depend on how quickly we get people the back to work. The economy and the market are two Different Things we could continue to have high unemployment in the economy and the economy be affected. However, the market actually go up how can this happen . It can happen if you have companies becoming more efficient with stay at home economy growing, youll see Technology Companies continue to grow and that may be the impetus for having the market take off and not have the economy take off. Lets talk a bit about the market and where you see the targets of opportunity you Like Software and services and medical devices in the held ca lehealth care area explain. Were going into a period of time where theres going be a lot of virtual studying online as far as health care is concerned, we know that health care will come under some pressure as the election comes on we think medical devices will ben fits over the long all i want to go to an area that interested me in my notes that you think based on where Interest Rates are and valuations have gone that the total return for equities both u. S. And international will be higher over the next decade than you would have predicted some months ago tell us why. You hit on it part of that has been the fact that valuation, the market is not as over valued as you think. If you believe in a long term recovery despite its pace that is going to reward equity investors. Now we sit here today. I think the longer you look out, theres parts of the market that had not nearly participated as much as technology kevin, final question to you, what is gold telling you at over 2,000 an ounce gold is telling you that we had negative real yields in the u. S. And that people are lock lo looking for way to get some appreciation thats why gold is rallying. Once we get yields back to positive territory, youll see gold come down the knock on gold has been you cant youre not going to get any income because it doesnt have income. However, thats out the window now because we had negative real yield. Thanks very much. Kelly. Lets get to fords jim hackett stepping down and being replaced by chief operating officer jim farley his plan has failed to impress investors. Lets get to phil with more on this surprising leadership change we talked a lot about jim hacketts inabilities to get ford on the right track to get fo the past three years jim joined ford in 2007. Hes 58 years old. On todays concerns got he got right to the point does ford realize how quickly it has to transform itself. Im feeling fantastic about our ability to compete with new competitors. I took almost a year out of the core business to really learn about technology in these new competitors. Im saying that from perfect perspective of learning and listening to these new competitors themselves he says i want to fix our issues better product launches. The last one was a disaster. Warranty costs have to come down i want to generate demand. The bronco suv is the perfect example. Come out with more products that say i like what im seeing and set ambition goals pu he also wants to get margins in north america back above 10 which they have not been at. The bottom line is jim farley realizes the urgency of the situation at ford and thats one reason why you see the stock moving higher today. Investors like ha they are hearing. Its interesting because its not like the out going ceo doesnt understand the automotive transformation that was under way. Where is this Company Going you heard bill ford today saying jim did a phenomenal job of setting this company on the right path to transforming itself that may be the case the flip side of that is that this industry is moving very quick. They havent moved quick enough to say we can compete and we can win. One more kind of question in this vain is he didnt clearly articulate where ford was going. If the new ceo feelslike he ha to really Say Something very clear about how different this company is going to be, does that imply an acquisition at some point i think what it does show is that jim farley will be aggressive hes not going to wait around. Hes going to be somebody that will take decisive action. That doesnt mean hes going to be wreckless but you will see ford move much faster than we have seen it move over the last three years. Interesting i think the most widely owned stock on robinhood thanks very much for bringing us that news today. Energy leading the market while financials and health care are the only two sectors in the red. Well have more. This stock went from a 52week low to an all time high in a few months as the Company Helps power the ecommerce boom. The ceo of Zebra Technologies will join us right after this break. [ thunder rumbles ] [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, theres progressive. [ beeping ] its totally not the same without you. Were finally back and cant wait until you are too. Universal orlando resort. Buy now and get two days free at the parks. Restrictions apply. The Company Manufacturers bar codes and scanners for warehouses Offering Solutions to companies as large as amazon across several industries. The past year its been the second best performer. They beat on Second Quarter earnings last week and its poised to benefit as more customers adapt their products and solutions in response to the pandemic its great do have you here. Welcome. Bar codes, qr codes and more is driving your business all of those things what we really do for our customers is help them to digitize and automate their central workloads. That goes across retail, health care, transportation and manufacturing. Were kind of seeing the front end peefs that, which is i love the names what are you really selling to companies. If you take example of retail we help to drive ecommerce. We drive omni channel. If you think of big trend thats happened here over the last four or five months senince the shutdowns, consumers are excited about buying online and pick up at stores. The nfl is a surprising partner for you. Reportedly this includes rfid tags that will help measure pretties to the head i wonder if youll be using these for covid this year with that organization or any others . Were very excited about the relationship we have with the nfl. We have been part neri iner partnering with them for six years. We have a few all the data for nex ne nexgen stats we have them on the shoulder pads and footballs too its great way the show how we can track for our customers. If two employees get closer than six feet and do contract tracing. Somebody who contracts the virus, we could tell who they been in contact with over the last number of days. Are you seeing a permanent shift higher in terms of whats likely for sales and profitability as a result here because theres so much more such a bigger market we have seen a number of strong secular trends that were present. We have seen grocery retailers doing well and the trend around pick up at store has gone from being a niche application to a more mainstream. Those trends arent going away thank you so nuch for joining us the stock 80 off its lows almost a 15 billion dollar market cap thanks for telling us more about the company. Thank you still ahead, another stock benefitting from the pandemic is fastenal shares of that mask maker are near record highs. The traders will tell us if you can still buy this stock its not just masks they make. Disney expected to report its first quarterly loss since 1984 how much more pain could be ahead for that stock a top anyswi jn alt lloius this piece is talking to me. Yeah . So what do you see . I see an unbelievable opportunity. I see bestinclass platforms and education. I see awardwinning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. And i see it with zero commissions on online trades. I like what youre seeing. Its beautiful, isnt it . Yeah. Td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. Welcome back under performing this year but one under the radar stand out catching the attention of wall street fastenal the stock is up 30 this year. Hitting an all time high yesterday. Sales for its Safety Products including goggles and masks on the ride it saw 114 jump in Second Quarter sales for Safety Products lets bring in trading nation team to discuss. Mark, youre seeing a rise in cases, will that continue to fuel more demand for fastenal Safety Products and is this a buy . I would say for a very short period of time it was great quarter for these guys many my opinion, i think its unsustainable. They saw huge growth by selling more Safety Products and for them, that offset declines in pretty much all of the rest of their businesses. If you want to play a true industrial rebound, honeywell is the answer its a multiindustry industrial its best Balance Sheet in the sector its got some issues when we see a good company surrounded by controversial, we view that as a good buying opportunity. Theres hand full of Industrial Companies that specialize in personal protective equipment where would you place your bets . Its an Interesting Company they did diversify into Safety Products sales are up 10 of last quarter. Driven by safety business segment. Its 116 growth that is carrying the lagging division. Trading 30 times next years earnings they show a lot of insight into whats happen ing in the economy its the best in breed Industrial Distributor they have been raising the dividend great long term value. I woinuldnt give up quite kwey. Head to our website for more realtime analysis and were on twitter. Kelly, back to you up next, its time for our weekly special tilman tuesday business continues to struggle its good to see him again business continues to struggle amid the pandemic. Well ask why things could go from bad twors o worst. The covid19 pandemic is creating Food Insecurity on a scale not seen in decades. An estimated 54 million americans will struggle with hunger. With 200 food banks and 60,000 meal programs, feeding america is the largest hungerrelief organization in the country. Join Morgan Stanley in supporting feeding america and your local Community Food bank. Try new natures bounty stress comfort. Three unique gummies for your unique needs. Find peace. Boost mood. Sleep well. Stress comfort comes naturally, only from natures bounty comes naturally, Simon Pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Welcome back here is your cnbc news update at this hour. Isaias has sped up as it nears new york city. Its moving at 40 miles an hour. Sustained especially winds have weakened a bit in delaware the gusts were Strong Enough to blow over tractor trailers in florida the death toll from covid19 had gone above 7500 officials reporting 245 new fatalities today just short of last fridays record new cases rose even though state run testing sites have been closed due to the tropical storm. Uber is telling its employees they can continue working from home until next june its not a mandate employees can return before if their offices reopen you can go to cnbc. Com for more on that story. In manila, Public Transit has been shutdown as part of a new lockdown due to coronavirus. Police check points ensure that only private and government vehicles are on the roads. Curfews are also being reinstated in some areas you are up to date thats the news update back to you. The dow is still hanging on a slight gain. Remember gold hit over 2,000 for the first time earlier today. Bond yields are at fresh record lows the oil market is closing up for the day. Lets go over to frank at the commodity desk for more. Oil finishing higher today with wti up. Brent crude up about half a percent. The price action is really helping energy the best performing sector in the s p today. The moves build oen yesterdn ye gain surrounding positive manufacturing data that said, rising supply in fear offense of a resurgence are capping gains given the potential impact on fuel demand back over the you. Frank, for the hospitality business, the month of july was supposed to be one of the best in months but for tilman and his landrys suite of restaurant, businesses still down roughly 50 and hes worried when the calendar hits in september, when it hits september things could go from bad to worse joining us from his weekly pulse check on business and the economy is tilman. Hes the ceo of landrys welcome back im going to start by talking about the houston rockets. Lets talk about something thats going really well i watched the game against the mavericks. Its 150 to 148 in overtime. Then they beat the bucks they are off to a great start. They play portland tonight the question about your team, to me, is when they come up against a team with a big man in the middle, like the lakers, who have two of them, what are they going to do . How will they win the rebounding war . Well, were not were going to get a good test were going to get a really good test tonight and thursday night because tonight we play portland who starts two seven footers and brings another one off the bench. Then we play the lakers on thursday night you got to remember, we got out rebounded the other day by 29 rebounds i dont know if thats a record but its got to be to win a game and get out rebounded by 29. Whats happening is we have got to shoot 37 to 38 from threes we also tied an nba record for most threes, but at the same time remember this, big guys are not as quick as little guys. James harden had six steals the other night. At the end of the game you saw our small guys and our small ball, you know, maneuvers and able to get the ball and make quick plays and deflect balls. Theres a reason they play small ball and baseball sometimes. The next two nights are going to be really great tests against portland and lakers. Were excited about it its definitely a different brand of basketball and if we do pretty good in the next few games, i think it will tell you where the rockets are going to end up at the end of this year so far its looking really good. So far so good. Its been exciting i have to say i think the nba apart from the idea that so far they have not had covid break outs at all, they have produced those Television Games brilliantly and the camera angles are good. You see the game from a different perspective. Its cool to watch its truly amazing and i havent been to orlando yet because the protocols are so strong even for me as an owner to go down there and go to a game to sit behind glass. We have to be tested and tested and wear mask during the game. Im not going be able to have a drink and jump up and cheer and go nuts like i like to do. You right now im watching it from home. From getting down there and using a new camera angle where were running a camera up and down court and youre seeing a different angle and the way the production is, if you dont think about it, you forget that youre not playing in front of fans theres so much going on behind you. You feel like youre watching practice where in the nba you know youre watching a basketball that camera that runs along the courts, you feel like youre in a court side seat watching the guys running along with the camera you have two of the most electrifying players in the game westbrook can rebound. I hope your son is happy now. I hope your son is happy now that the nba is back he will have torn loyalties on thursday. I warn you you were expressing your opinion that the one thing you needed was Straight Talk from municipal officials and governors as to what the parameters would be to allow your businesses to reopen. Have you made any progress on that its a responsible request tell me where the dpogoal postse and ill get there they dont know where the goal posts are ive said this before and im going to say it again governors and mayors and a lot of these cities and states are not feeling the pain they are still getting their paycheck every week or every two weeks. We all live in our own financial silo and if youre not feeling the pain, you cant make good decisions. Youre sitting there in new york and cases are so down and they wont let us open our restaurants at 25 , its totally rick because you know what, mayor de blasio and governor coco coumo are getting their paycheck every single week. Theyre not worried about my hourly employees who arent getting money or my salaried employees who are on furlough and cant get the 600 because these selfish accomplishes are g politicians are getting their paychecks every week theyre not going to open anything up and not worried about anything else. Lets talk about what happens, fair point. I guess you could go to the state legislatures or the congress and say, you got to take a pay cut here. If youre operating at 25 , why dont they take a 75 pay cut. If your revenues are half of what they were, why not that its fair point. Leets lets go do what happens in the fall i think about these businesses, restaurants where youre having Outdoor Dining in some parts of the country that can continue well up until almost christmas and beyond. In a lot of the country, north of the masondixon line for sure, those outside dining areas will go away right. Thats why we need to handle the cases. We need to run this through the kplunts. The people that are susceptible need to be more careful. You cannot our country is staying in a recession i told yall a few months ago, Everybody Needs to forget this v recove recovery its not happening we have dug ourselves into a hole and it will take us a long time to get out of it. A lot of us are doing business because were in leisure markets. Whats going to happen come september 15th, there are no con vengs. You see the airlines are furloughing everybody because they are looking in advance into bookings and realizing the hotels are looking into the future into the fall theres no conference business theres no Convention Business and theres no Business Travel and your leisure traveler will be gone. How long for your businesses until we get back to 19, 2019 levels or early 20 levels ill sit there and when i want to be optimistic, i say 22. Thats if we had a vaccine we have everything opened up again. I showed yall a chart a few month ago and i said june of 22, exactly two years from now. Im beginning not to think that anymore. It take gaming and hospitality to around 15 or 16 to catch up with those numbers when you take a big dip, it takes a long time to get back to normal theres so many Unemployed People theres so much Capital Expenditures that build jobs for new development. All the construction employees that it takes a long time to catch up again ive been thinking about how critical the economy the American School system is. If the school isnt open, workers cant go to work, right . 100 . Im chairman of the board of regents for the university of houston and have been for years. I was on the phone with our chancellor this morning who is one of the truly top chancellors in the United States we have a huge system with over 100,000 students and five campuses we dont know what to do when it comes to what do we do with all these employees that are on the peripheral from parking to ho e housing. Not necessarily the professors but everybody else its a huge issue. Parents cant go to work were already trying to figure out what were going to do with all of our employees that these poor single mothers and these single dads are both parents work how will you teach your kids and also keep your job that goes back to your politicians only thinking about their selfish selves and not making tough decisions and saying weve got to make tough decisions and you the School Districts have got to find way to have separation for the students but these kids have got to go back to school because you have totally screws up mentally and physically and economically the United States if our School Children cannot go back to school thank you we appreciate your time. Ill be watching your team and my favorite broadcaster. See you. Good luck. Thank you coming up, two things you need to live your heart and the sun well explain. Also, disney is reporting after bell e would say earnings but its expected to post its first loss in 36 years. Is the worst even over given everything were just discussing power lunch will be right back how long will this last . Am i prepared for this . Are we prepared for this . With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations, with access to taxsmart Investment Strategies designed to help you keep more of what youve earned so youll know youre doing what you can for your family and your future. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. Come on in, were open. All we do is hand you the bag. Simple. Done. We adapt and we change. You know, you just figure it out. Weve just been finding a way to keep on pushing. Welcome back time now for power movers and we begin with Polo Ralph Lauren the company lost more than expected sales were shy of estimates. Sales were down 64 . The stock was only down 5 today. Solar Edge Technologies are soaring to a new all time high after beating on earnings and refr knew. It revenue its been an out performer this year gains are up more than 5 today. We end with irhythm technologies they make heart monitors according to analyst it seems reimbursement rates will be higher than expected look at stocks move. Its up more than 30 as a result today ty thank you. To the bond market rick tracks the action for us. Hi, rick good afternoon. Pretty much every maturity outside of 20 and 30year bonds establish new low closing yields as a matter of fact, two year, three year, 7year and 10year have included in the range levels should they close that would be new all time yield closes its almost getting to be daily event. It isnt just here look at a 20year chart. Its 7 basis points. Wont find a lower yield on that chart or any chart we have dropped close to 9 . Thats a huge number in any period of time tyler, back to you a question or two as a follow up, any catalyst you see for these moves today. Something finally pushed gold over the mark. I think its cumulative the closer we get to school times, i think that really cements home the notion of how long the economy could be in a quagmire i think this is starting to sink in the market is grasping that. Well said thank you. We appreciate it take a look at the four tech trilli trillionaires. Seemingly every one piles into those stocks up next, we look at stocks that arent as universally loved. Stay witus you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. But inside. Theres advanced research, modeling and refinement. Constructing funds that dont simply follow an index. But explore new terrain. Helping you fill portfolio gaps. Connect to client goals. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise. Before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. The nasdaq hitting an all time high today. Investors of all age groups agree on at left one thing big tech but kate rooney is now looking at the differences between what boomers and millennials are buying this should be interesting, kate tyler, thats right big tech is still a fan favorite but there is less consensus among generations when it comes to some other sectors. Babyboomers age 56 to 74 tend to hold more shares of traditional pharmaceutical companies thats according to a new report from apex clearing abbott labs, bristolmyers squib and merck are in the top but they didnt make the list for millennials. Those ages 2439 meanwhile were more notably eager than older generations to buy the pandemic driven dip in travel stocks. Cruise line, Royal Caribbean and Spirit Airlines landed in the top half of millennials list of favorite stocks. For boomers, the beaten down travel names not in the top 100. There was one pharma name that millennials is buying, moderna that stock made the list for the first time coming in at number 4 number 40. All about big tech, apple, amazon, tesla, microsoft and facebook are among the top five for both generations analysts say this is helped by a rise in fractional trading making some of the 1,000 stocks a bit more accessible. Back to you. You know, kate, i wonder whether the historical experience of boomers plays a big role in this because as a babyboomer, i lived through the double dip recession of 81 and 82 and into 83. I lived through the dotcom bust bubble and bust, 9 11, 2008 and 2009 so weve been knocked around a lot and seen our wealth go up and down and up and down and up and down its so no wonder we tend to go maybe with more traditional blue chip names. Long question, what do you think . Thats right. The more conservative they are and the idea that older generation that were babyboomers, for example, might see this as a buying opportunity because they have the historical knowledge of, you know, stocks will will go up again at some point. I want to buy here there is other research that genz, for example, lists other reasons for buying stocks besides things like buying the dip. But youre right about that in terms of the historical context. I take it i would fit into the older generation, kate you and i need to have a conversation, my friend. I dont know about that thanks a lot. Kel. I no comment it was a magical quarter for disney parks were shut down mo movie theaters were empty how bad will it be when disney reports . Well dive into that next. You can always watch or listen to us live on the cnbc app well be right back. Shares of disney are down 20 this year as they deal with delayed film releases and lack of sports. They expect to post the first quarterly loss since 1984. Lets bring in our analyst what is the expectation for tonight . Would you say the bar is pretty high, pretty low walk me through what youll be looking for. Yeah. I id say its pretty low there is not a lot that disney can say about the market activity that you mentioned, Film Production is shut down parks are operating through a pretty unique time and the return of live sports is largely out of disneys control. I think theyll try to speak to some of the things that are in their control. But probably not try to provide any, you know, sort of false sense of certainty about what the next few months are going to look like. Yeah. That said, we all remember just what was it 18 months ago, 12 months ago when disney was doing everything right the stock was beloved. It was all going in their favor. Now just the complete opposite so as an investor, what do you do do you dump the stock because of the pandemic or do you buy it at these levels saying i have to wait three or five years but the same factors that contributed to the success before will contribute to the success once again . Yeah. I think its a little bit of both i think for investors that can be patient, this is undoubtedly a great opportunity to own disney the stock was making highs of around 150 not so long ago. And so the question is whats changed . And the answer is coronavirus. It has changed a lot of things and so when theres an end to the pandemic, which is to say when there is a vaccine that is deployed, then disney should be returning to that level of earnings power that it had before i think for those investors though with a little shorter duration horizon, you have to acknowledge that like a lot of other stocks that have been severely impacted by the pandemic, this one probably isnt going to start going back up to those normalized levels until its operations can return back to normal yep you have a 118 target on it steven, thank you so much. Thank you. Tyler, speaking of the lack of live sports, nadal just pulled out of the u. S. Open. Covid19 concerns. And i believe the number one woman in the world pulled out as well a week or so ago, correct then you have the indy 500. P penske was going to do it with a crowd and today they said no crowd. Whats been going on in baseball i dont know how theyre going to sustain it with all the game they now have to make up, i hope that they just stop right here and declare the yankees the world series winner. I bet you do. If it cant be the nats, it has to be the yankees. Closing bell starts right now. There is a tall fellow standing right over there right here. Welcome to the closing bell, everyone im with sara eisen. Stocks off the highs of the day. The s p 500 and nasdaq just slipping into the red with 59 minutes left of the session. Have a hook at what is driving the action today lawmakers divided over the next round of coronavirus stimulus with negotiations on going gold prices continue to rise hitting a new record high above 2,000 an ounce. The ten year yield flirts with falling below 0. 5 the we did see the second straight monthly increase in factor