Trades on top. Ocado drops despite reporting 30 jump in sales. Jp morgan and banks kick off earnings season. Well see how much of an impact hit the banks bottom lines. It has been a weaker session in europe. Stocks have been trading deeply in negative territory. The hand over wall street, very choppy we have not seen that. Investors getting used to some of the records in the recovery trade takinghnogy. It was the opposite yesterday as some of the closures in california and texas with the spike of covid cases finally spiked a little caution. Weve seen some numbers. Signatu singapores seeing more of the fa fallout from the virus tensions from the u. S. And china again around the South China Sea and Natural Resources china claims are theirs and the ordering of chinese businesses in the states. A lot of tension one analysts said what you get is either very positive or very negative we are still roughly where we started on the uk stock market up 18 french rewinding about 2 . The dax is down 1. 6 german stocks giving back a lot of the gains the ibex down a similar amount swiss stocks and also on italy after it falls on wall street, the sector is also down more aggressively, more than 3 you can see this curve from the lows in march quickly and followed wall street higher in the tech heavy nasdaq trade. Even with this reversal. All in the trading section today. Technology has been the bottom travel and leisure 2. 2 . Tell comes slightly weaker we are waiting for a decision from the uk today on the participation of huawei. Major supplier in the Major Construction any decision could have a decision for the cost of some of the Companies Investing in the future oil and gas waited out those the asian markets, lets take a look at the hand over from that part of the world. European markets have opened from a relatively weak hand over fairly contained when we look at the magnitude of the moves after u. S. Stocks closed off into the close. Lets look at u. S. Futures and where we stand we have seen u. S. Futures around the flat line and a touch in positive territory the nasdaq in a fresh high and actually closed down 2 . Volatile session yesterday investors try to decide where to go from here lets bring in our guests from waiver ton Investment Management clearly markets are switching a little more negative what are you making of that change in sentiment . It may well be slightly technically driven with the s p 500 index getting back to that high about a month ago and then falling back. Weve got the earnings season coming up. Expectations are quite low the magnitude of the declines in earnings are expected. I think the consensus are down 40 year on year for u. S. Earnings the magnitude of that will possibly highlight where valuations have got to understanding the argument that the stock market is attractive relative to the bond market. In stand alone terms, theyve got a lot of good news in the price. Difficult to know what triggers people participating on that and maybe the earnings season is the guide to the market from here. It will be interesting to see by how the Second Quarter looked and what lies ahead. Can i take issue with the valuation and some of the tech executives have been noting that investors have been looking for potential down the track and looking hard to the community. Suddenly very hopeful about the future does it seem this will be buying opportunities on the tech tad to look for opportunities for the investors. I dont think anybody running portfolios, very few will have the technology in it it will be the driver in the market i think the question is whether or not it continues to be the driver in the market it will be a lot healthier if the leadership broadens out. The centralization in terms of the leadership, top five stocks in the states and 25 cap, et cetera thats not as healthy in the environment of the recession in an environment where we are looking for the economy to recover. Youd expect those to be beneficiaries of that. Totally, absolutely understand that the kinds of companies that have been leading the market have been in most cases, terrific Business Plans and their future is probably quite good issues around regulation will hold that and i do come back to valuation at some point, it becomes a factor i expect big companys argument is weaker than some other parts of the market. William, you talk about the earnings being a potential catalyst you think about the vaccine developments yesterday, you had this piece of news come out to the vaccine makers, moving markets yesterday early in the morning how do you think investors react to further vaccine news . What is the expectation here are we set up for disappointment or are we set up for the upside . Undoubtedly, the vaccine that was effective was transformational im no medical expert but in looking at what one reads. I think the World Health Organization said Something Like this overnight vaccines are tough things to find i think the base case should probably be that we will probably find one but it might take a while obviously, any good news or better news than that would be terrific it would be transformation in terms of getting the economy again and the need for social distancing the base should be that based on medical history, vaccines are tough to get and particularly one you need to have literally globally the base case is something that the base case is something we might get between 2020 and 2021. The question is thats peoples behaviors have changed people dont want to go to city centers and public transport with the relockdowns we are seeing in some parts of the United States in particular, i think people are reminded it will be a long haul to get back to where we were in january and february thats part of the indication. Although we have this bounce off the bottom in terms of the data, to get it to continue to bounce in that way will be tough while we have the issues around social distancing and people just not wanting to travel, et cetera we are looking ahead now to elections with november just around the corner. Have you begun to factor in to your forecasting and outlook the increased chances of a biden presidency and what does that mean for your portfolio construction that is certainly something we are focused on. Is there anything going on there that would be consistent with starting to discount a biden presidency and perhaps more importantly the democrats getting more in the senate that would allow them passing in the senate that biden wants to enact. The Market Driven by the vaccine and the desire to have these Growth Stocks we were talking about earlier. At the moment, i think the election is very much on the back burner. On the one hand, that is reasonable it is only july. There have been a lot of cases where they havent won it would be michael decaucus in 1988 over george bush and then lost in november it is too early to be confident. A lot of times, the u. S. Election only gets going about labor day and it could be that the market is really not paying attention. Things they want to introduce in terms of spending on green related issues they are going to be less market friendly than the policies of the Current Administration it doesnt seem to be having a big one. Your comments think about the u. S. china relationship. There has been a lot of negative news in the resources also around further auditing listing in the state. Markets have been cautious around the china story as they count down thinking there would be a lot of noise anyway what do we think about the positioning that only take that seriously as we get the polling resul results. I think the u. S. Is a fairly by part season thing the democrats have been calling for u. S. Administration to take a tougher start. Actually, i dont know that biden will be particularly different from trump there might be some differences in terms of style and approach and that diplomacy by Public Statement and twitter, et cetera im not sure the end design will be a lot different i think there will be an underlying tension between the u. S. And the republic of china china is showing that recovery does look it does look like the chinese economy is recovering strongly. Although there are tech issues around telecom and other areas of tension, the u. S. And china are bound togethering in terms of the supply chain. Look at apple, for example there is a lot of bluster but im not sure how much of an escalation there will be at the moment, i think there is a lot of bluster, whether that will impact broadly, im just not sure about cio at waivverton investment. Secretary of state mike pompeo rejected the statement. China said he is, quote, running a campaign of bullying a move could lead to forced delistings of chinese firms from u. S. Exchanges experts rising 0. 5 . Sam filed this report. Both exports and imports. Imports rose 2. 7 from a month earlier blowing past expectations analysts expected imports to follow 10 year on year. So this is a big jump from may at 16. 7 on the export side also better than expected. Analysts were expecting a fall of 1. 5 . They were expecting an improvement from may as most countries reopened economies and as china exported more ppe and electronics as weve entered a work from home data. It comes from ramping up the spending in china. Analysts said this better than expected headline and demand is picking up speed investors have been betting on a quicker recovery in china than other parts of the world china reported a sur [ applause ] surplus as the trade surplus with the u. S. Widened in june. Despite the headline numbers beating expectation, the stocks edged lower in trade perhaps the geopolitical tensions now weigh on investor sentiment. Reporting from sydney. Back to you. Coming up on the show, a major shift in shopping post lockdown what that means for the future right after the break. 49. 50 i found you good job. Now im gonna stay here and you go hide. Watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the Xfinity Stream app. Free with your xfinity service. Now any room can be a tv room. Stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. Download the Xfinity Stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. Xfinity. The future of awesome. But with the covid19 crisis, many veterans are struggling to make ends meet or get the care they need. Dav has helped ill and injured veterans for one hundred years, but today, the need is greater than ever. Give to the dav covid19 relief fund and help provide critical assistance to veterans in need. Go to dav. Org helpvets or call now. Your donation will make a real difference. Welcome back to street signs. Uk growth rebounded by 1. 8 in may after applicants record fall the data still missed forecast in the overall economy 24 smaller than last year the figures underlying the scale of the challenges britain faces. In corporate news, hellofresh said it has seen a surge in orders since the lockdown. Revenue this quarter could be up to 975 Million Euros and ee bitta could reach 700 million. Raising growth to 55 to 70 . Ocad os Retail Revenue has jumped 27 spurred by a surge of online shopping. Also ramping up its International Presence with overseas fees jumping 60 . Raising 1 billion bounds and not making any changes to its guidance the pent up demand and sales remain below the usual levels. In june, retail sales rose 3. 4 year on year driven by food, computing and furniture sales. A return to normal high Street Retail is not expected in the near term. From t from the Consulting Firm kantar, in the survey of 100,000 consumers youve been interviewing and it tells us consumers are not behaving the way they would normally behave run us through some key findings thank you i think the best way to describe the consumer at the moment is uncertain. The consumer is concerned about the economy and the pace of recovery and their own personal finances as well they are concerned about health and keeping themselves and their family safe. That all means they are concerned about and uncertain about how to behave as restrictions lift. We are seeing an uncertain group of people as restrictions lift and some different behaviors across different groups within the consumer base. Some people cant wait for the economy to open up and get back to quote unquote normal. A lot of other people really holding back and nervous about the potential health risks and also about their finances. The more you talked to people and realize everybody feels differently about this crisis, you broke it down to six categories i think it is interesting as we went in to the lockdown, it felt like significant experience. We were all troubled by the same things we were worried about states staying safe and access to resources and stockpiling happened it felt like a collective experience lockdown has become part of our normal life. We are responding to it differently. That led us to create groups of people or tribes and they are clusters of likeminded people that display similar attitudes it describes the polar opposites. They are generally tipified around the amount of uncertainty and information that they seek at one end, we have the group called the ostriches they are not particularly concerned for their own health and not really following the media or guidelines. They are the ones that will kick start the economy and get out there as soon as restrictions lift they make up 12 of the global population they are a little lower in the uk at the upper end of that, we have the group that we call the precarious worriers and they are very, very anxious these are people just not reassured by any government guidelines and not sure the government is doing enough they are really going to take their time they are going to see the very visible measures in place. That is social distancing, regular testing and so on. I thought it was appropriate, you had one key take away around big purchases. I think about the auto trade and investors around consumption you say the outlay will lag behind the recovery. What do we put into that other than autos it is a lot of travel and leisure as well. Overseas will take some is time before they come back. There are more expiexperience t. During the lockdown, we did see consumer electi Consumer Electronics doing quite well now that new smartphone is drifting down the list of priority rosie, you talk about how overall, people, consumers are more cautious about how the media suggests now saying to eat out is to help out and get people back into restaurants in august. Do you think part of the design is to get people more comfortable going out. It is not about the direct impokt of the program but getting people to see what new Safety Measures look like. Exactly thats where these different tribes weve identified become important. Some wont worry about that and will get out as soon as they can. Those precarious worriers theyll really need to see that they are comfortable with surrounding. It could work for them getting them out there will be difficult. They are happy to stay at home doing their online shopping. It is going to be tough to get them out as we think a little longer term, looking back at the financial crisis and the recession. Major events can shape the way whole generations can shape money and risk, how is this pandemic going to shape the way people think about money and spending in the future that is one of the interesting signs we are seeing in the data. It was very evident. We know a lot of people have been on furlough facing reduced working hours we did see initially a pragmatic approach, so people were shopping around for prices and considerations they were managing better or trying to manage this a little better what we are seeing now is a desire to invest savings of how much they were able to save versus spend. There is a real opportunity for the Financial Services at the moment to step up and help some of these some of these are first time investors and feeling uncertain about what is going on the Financial Services will partner with them now to find solutions that will work for them a quick one on the Property Market weve seen the doors reopen, you get a sense maybe the transactions will pick up a little you are cautious around the big life decisions people are willing to make at this point. We are seeing the impact. The data was taken ahead of the announcement that said, we are seeing people there is big life decisions depending which age group you are in people are less likely to move or buy a house or considering whether they can afford to have a baby this is really shaping peoples lives for the time being until we see how the recovery is going to feel. Big implications for people. Thank you for joining us today. A fascinating report for a lot of ceos looking at the impact. Coming up on the show, the founder from the World Economic forum. That is coming your way next welcome to street signs. Im karen tso. European equities take their queues from asia and the United States wild swings on wall street with nasdaq down 2 still missing forecasts warning the data on the Alliance Scale the challenge ahead. Delivery divergence hellofresh trades on top after posting a beat on Second Quarter earnings, ocado drops. Jpmorgan, city and wells fargo will impact the provisioning on the lenders bottom lines. Lets get a check on european markets. We are about an hour and a half into the Fresh Trading in asia, every region did trade lower below the flat line after a volatile day on wall street with the nasdaq hitting a high but closing about 2 lower all eyes turning now to earnings season with the u. S. Banks kicking off. We are looking ahead to the submit on the recovery fund. A lot to digest today. Stoxx 600 trading about 1. 3 lower. Every major region below the flat line this morning lets look at the futures. Yesterday, we were trading in negative territory a bit of jitters running through with the u. S. Investment as that dead weight would be more of and indicator of where we go from here just looking at some comments in the uk. This is around the central scenarios for growth seeing 12. 4 fall for gdp this year at 12. 4 fall in terms of the down side scenario, 14. 4 this year. It goes on for the ramifications for borrowing. That rise this year has led to between 13 and 21 gdp lifting debt above 100 . It is seeing a level roughly of 100. 1 those concerns about debt out there, this is the extent of it. The chancellors latest measures were notified for us to be too late so that disclaimer clearly impacts the growth these numbers setting aside the intervention lets put on the latest from huawei warning of the impact on the 5g network. The government is expected on whether to allow the company to take the next generation network. They have reported the first half Revenue Growth as the Pandemic Impact and u. S. Sanctions weigh on the tech giant. Arjun, looking at the numbers that have been crossing. Absolutely, karen ill run through some of those numbers. Huawei brought in 454 billion yuan of revenue. Slowest first half year on year rise it does give you a sense this is a company that has been growing and now youve seen this dramatic slow down youve got the pandemic and that is weighing on economies around the world and probably pulling off spending on telcos as welcoming from the u. S. Sanction put on the black list from the conetworking business you have seen the Smartphone Market dip some not exactly equipped with googles operating systems now it is contending with the further geopolitical list talking about blocking the network. Youve got Boris Johnson meeting. What they are reviewing is the document handed to them. That was an emergency review that began in may after the u. S. Sanctions that for bit them from buying chips that were American Software that would procure them from buying chips that is the biggest security report they are looking at this and considering whether they would abandon and strip them out wed closely watch the decision as we expect to see later today. That would be the sculminatio of the story as the pandemic rises, saying a fair world must be built calling for a reset with an exclusive interview. Asking him in china had been damaged by the fallout of the pandemic china has moved out first based on the specific structure, governmental structure, it was able to apply the measure and get it under control we see china moving out of the crisis as the countries lagging behind and have more emphasis on personal freedom and to get control over the virus the risk we have is that this virus will create more global animosity. We have to do everything hopefully as part of the global reset, recreate the dialogue global and require Global Operation to be addressed. How concerned are you about the animosity. It felt that they were making progress now it feels as though weve made a rewind on that front. The whole repat reation of production becoming less dependent on the countries as far as crucial developments on the economy and Health Systems are concerned of course, we have also a widening gap between the emerging countries the tendency is that the global tension will increase. We have to lean back and make every effort to bring the people around the same table and have some discussing those issues which actually are essential if we dont want to have the intergenerational solution because the young generation will certainly remind us of any mistakes we may make and see in any social unrest movements around the world we have some pictures coming to us live on bastille day in paris. Typically you see military personnel and fireworks. But this time about 2,000 participants and spectators. Fireworks will take place but without the public there are reports of mask wearing in the crowd to protect those around them. Foreign planes, when we see those images from the skies. German typho german and british planes. To thank the colleagues in the fight against covid19 showing the force of a couple of nations. You see the french president Emmanuel Macron there. This time, the celebration taking place where it will culminate in the massive display of fireworks we are looking forward to coming up, americas largest banks to kick off the second earnings season well discuss after the break. 49. 50 i found you good job. Now im gonna stay here and you go hide. Watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the Xfinity Stream app. Free with your xfinity service. Now any room can be a tv room. Stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. Download the Xfinity Stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. Xfinity. The future of awesome. Americas biggest banks are set to release Second Quarter results this week as lenders take out large provisions. Followed by citi and wells fargo. Goldm goldman sac set to report on wednesday. Nice to have you back other areas around credit exposures have been hit. How should we think about the Second Quarter i think on the negative side, it is possible it will have a pick up in the long lost provision and should be a better result especially the business and in that sense of any m a fees with that closer provision, we are already past to give you the number, we have 30 billion in reserve. The question is will we move higher from 30 billion what would cause the banks to provision at this stage. There has been a lot of noise banks have been under pressure what would cause the banks to be more cautious . I think it is all about the direction of the employment and the ratio. That is a very strong story especially on the consumer portfolio and the Unemployment Rate that is a relation between 1 million increasing and translating in the charge. We need to see and will have clarity if this will be permanent or temporary this is the biggest thing we are facing. What are we likely to hear on the cost front this has been the biggest change and is there more room to go in terms of cost cutting in the u. S. . There is much more room to go in the United States european yields in terms of cost cutting over the last 10 years for american banks, theyve been having a very different policy the only change recently with rates down at least a year to 18 you would like to think out whether the foot print is appropriate or not and whether they need to tackle the space rates were music to this and after the start to 2019. The conversation you were having to a much lesser extent have helped main street when you think about investing, does this mean investors would look more at the banks rather than Retail Banking and more main street focused divisions . I think that the best is to have some sort of a universal bank as weve seen on both side of the pond in america with jp morgan and city that actually, it is good to have different engines running at the same time that would be one of the topic if you have good underwriting result and strong Investment Bank revenue you can afford to kick up on your reserves. If you dont have the additional landing, you may be a bit more e e economical you can see the volumes are very, very strong. The question is what comes now in the Third Quarter even in recent weeks some of those have come off in the higher levels do you think weve seen the best of those incomes good one. That would depend on the economy. We dont know whether this second wave will be more discreeted or global it depends on the stock market for that, it is important. Adding a very dismal 2020. If you see the higher valuation, that will bolster the period and potentially you could see more mandate and would notice you would see a small pick up of the ipo. If it had sustained more of an issue to the Investment Bank engine given the different approaches when it comes to supporting the respective economies. Does that mean this time around earnings would be more limited given the major differences and policy approaches here seeing the number for the like of jp morgan and citi. I think it will be a element across that would be a difference between the u. S. And europe that the Consumer Finance is more important in america that was a big portion of the 750 billion losses something we dont really have in europe they would be more niche players as opposed to large banks. Thank you for helping us set the scene and get ready for earnings director of credit lets push on and talk about the United States. California has ordered all bars, restaurants, museums to close as the state continues to suffer a surge in coronavirus cases californias two Biggest School districts of los angeles and san diego said learning will stay remote into the autumn semester. Despite a warning from the Trump Administration to withhold funding from schools that refuse to open. Going to tracie potts, california had one of the strictest lockdowns in the country to kick things off now weve got them reinstating those once again what has gone wrong . The fact is that coronavirus cases are spiking. Not only california but oregon and in texas certainly, in california because of its size and getting a lot of attention. There are other School Districts around the states as well have decided it is not safe for students to go back. They are going to start the fall semester on line in san diego and los angeles in atlanta, new york is considering whether they can send students back in florida where we have seen a record nationwide report spike in cases some of those School Districts are saying they are not comfortable yet. Many of these states are starting to hit the pause button on reopening thank you for the update. That is all for todays show thank you for watching Worldwide Exchange is coming your way next. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. Switch and save hundreds. Xfinity mobile. It is 5 00 in detroit. Your top five at 5. On the horizon, new comments from the white house and new comments on a covid19 vaccine and teslas wild ride but could the rally finally run out of juice. Busy in michigan as ford