Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712

800 points at its low as states like texas and florida roll back their reopening plans. The dow and s p now back in negative territory for the month of june. Does this take the vshaped recovery off the table, guy . Hi. Hi. That was a great toss from sarah to fast money. The market had a vshaped recovery, but the economy anything but weve talked for a while now that the Chasm Company the real economy and the stock market continues to widen out, until today at least i think somehow that gap is going to be close. Unfortunately i think its going to be closed by the stock Market Selling off. In terms of what happens today, i think the fact that states seem to be putting the brakes on things is a huge part of it, but dont discount at all the news about facebook i think we can come back in the fall and go back and say on june 25th when verizon started to pull ads from facebook, that was a significant event in the market 27. 90 in the s p 500 is the number i keep coming back to i dont think its ridiculous to think were going to retest that we basically closed where we closed, i think, two thursdays ago june 11th after that big worst. The market gave it all back and it gave it all back even after the feds done some jawpoboning over the last twoweeks. This is not a facebook specific story anymore the fallout happened across technology and specifically social media these same issues when it comes to advertisers and their ads next to content is the same for youtube and a lot of other social media platforms out there. We bring this up in the context of a Broader Market conversation, because this has been the leadership in this market so if this cracks, what happens . Yeah. Thats exactly the issue this isnt just facebook remember, your maga or your fang stocks, their Business Model is selling ads. Its an adbased revenue stream. If that revenue stream is now in question, people are going to start pulling away from that then the tech stocks which have been the leaders and theyve been a leader because theres growth there and if theres growth there while the economy is stagnating, thats where you want to be now you have, okay, wait, theres some questions about the revenue stream youve got everybody concentrated in these names and everybody rushes for the exit for the same time. You know, in the Bigger Picture for the market, its not very constructive for the market, let alone whats going on with covid. This could take a lot of wind out of the sails. Weve been talking about the reclosing trade, so to speak we are reclosing in some parts of the country what does this do to this view weve seen in this market if that view was built on a reopening rally . I think it makes it really difficult. We talked about the large cap growth trade for a while we were saying these are priced for perfection if you have issues with facebook, those valuations are vulnerable what we started to see was this rotation or not even a rotation but probably a broadening out. It was all predicated upon this economic v recovery. It was small caps, it was value, financials, industrials. All of these areas the market started to participate and people started to get excited. For a large part of the last few weeks they were helping drive the market higher. If you look at those areas of the market, all of them hit the 200day moving average that was downsloping and it started to weaken ever since. Paying attention to that and taking clues from those areas of the market in terms of how that might end up impacting the overall trajectory is important. Id look at oil starting to get close to a difficult technical level here all of these things are worth paying attention to to try to figure out how severe this correction might be. The question is how long is this pause for the week the s p 500 is down less than 3 so just the tiny drop in the bucket compared to the Massive Gains of the march 23rd lows where are we in your view in terms of processing this reclosing . Its two out of the last three weeks that have been painful. If you think about between the closing and the reopening, the fed this week was very heavy handed i think the fed over the last two weeks with the powell speech and just the fed is telling you that the economy and banks are in a challenged place and theyre telling you were going to throw everything we possibly can. I think getting back to the Market Forces are that, yes, mega cap tech are great Balance Sheets and there is growth and, yes, valuations are stretched. But weve also talked about the Retail Investors yes, the strong hand is there, but theres a lot of weak hands there too. There are folks on our panel, folks around the market that have said look at the performance in banks, transports thats really telling you late cyclical stocks really where were going despite the fact that there was a great rotation there 68 weebks ago jobless claims this week were a reminder they were a little better than expected but not necessarily the kind of improvement you want to see week after week. There is a large group of workers that are going to be put back on ice. Thats something thats going to put a major strain, i think, on the economy that was starting to see those exit numbers in may look better. I just think where we came from is critical, though, to the price action this week the general referred to the overbought territory i would echo that. The general being jeff mills, fyi, for people following along at home. Im saying the obvious but i just want to make sure bk, when it comes to some of the data, we also got interesting numbers on income, which we had been saying for so long was propped up by extra stimulus, the extra overlay of Unemployment Benefits because of covid19, which will expire come july 31st. When that happens, there was a bar owner in texas saying today it will be cataclysmic in august if there is no further fiscal stimulus. Right yes, that is the concern i do think what you saw today in the market is that the market was starting to price in the potential for more potentially fed action or some more fiscal stimulus youre going to need it. I mean, if we have this socalled second wave, to me its just a continuation of the first wave its this big tsunami thats coming through, unfortunately. If you have this and youre closing things down again, that augers for more stimulus you look at what the fed mandate is their mandate is full employment and stable inflation we have neither of those at this point in time. So theyve got all kinds of cover they can do. We have an election coming up in november and its going to come down to which politician can put the most money in peoples pockets. You know, i think you look at what gold did today relative to the equity market and gold is really the trade here. It absolutely skyrocketed. Once we saw the stats from arizona and texas and florida. I get that, but underlying what you said i sense a hint of bullishness that there are sorts of backstops for this market, the fed, the stimulus, all of these things that are going to make these things happen this year. So that is, i think, one thing that has been driving the market and i think if you look forward, yeah, i think you have to be aware of that. Hey, listen, there can be a ton of stimulus, a ton more money coming in. I dont know if id paint myself as a bull. Todays action was pretty bad. I think we probably have several more days of negative action but then well see what happens. Well see as we get toward the end of july. Does more money go into peoples Bank Accounts . If thats the case, the market is going to look through this valley to 2021 when earnings are normalized and people are going to buy. Lets get the opinion of the chartmaster, Carter Braxton worth. What are you looking at . Its pointing to gold, thats for sure bk is dead right on the that lets talk about the market. First slide. What happens in the midpoint in a calendar year when youre down you can see there the market at the midpoint, june 30th has been down 33 years in its 92year history, 1928 to present the odds of being down are lower than going up. Markets are built to go up you see the odds there 35 the question is what happens in years when youve had an auspicious first half. At the midpoint youre down, average return for the whole year is 0. 71 . Second half performance. You see the median is 1. 34 those are muted numbers. N now, it could be better and it could be a lot worse the point is the start usually means not the best in terms of what comes in the second half. Two charts on the s p, next slide. Take a look. We know our highs is 3400. We know our low is 2200. We know we crashed, we ricochetted. We basically are sort of churning now but the key to the churn is do we get down to that 2800 to retrace 50 . I think we do. Last chart here you see the same chart as last slide, but ive drawn a trend line this is a simple trend line thats be in effect since the march low. The presumption is that the break is not over and theres more to go carter, thank you Carter Braxton worth well go to the general for this in terms of using history as your guide, jeff, it seems like the risk reward just may not be there for. 74 on average and a median of 1. 34 upside. I mean, thats certainly the camp that ive been in i think its a little bit hard to determine which direction the market is going to go just because this tug of war is going on you have policy support, Economic Data probably gets incrementally better from here but then you have all of these issues in the second half of the year, not the least of which is the election in terms of using history as our guide, typically president s do not fare so well when theyve experience add recession in the two years leading up to their reelection bid i think Calvin Coolidge is the only president to be dealing with a recession in those two years. Wh in te theres a lot of headwind in the second half of the year. Im learning toward risk versus reward lets turn now to the airlines, one of the worst performing sectors today phil is watching a couple headlines in this space. Airline ceos were at the white house meeting with Vice President mike pence theyre there discussing potential options when it comes to further screening of p passengers were talking about should there be temperature checks done if so, who would be in charge of it, how much would it cost is it the tsa, the airlines, the airport . This has been pushed around in the Airline Industry for a couple of months now when you look at the industry overall right now, its under pressure because the metrics dont look very good first of all, you have passenger levels down 77 compared to the same day a year ago. The average daily cash burn for all the u. S. Airlines, more than 100 million a day right now probably closer to 120 million. Thats where it is right now then you have the airline unions, aviation unions, six of them writing to congressional leaders saying you should extend the payroll aid. Remember the 32 billion they put aside to guarantee jobs through september 30th they would like that to continue as you take a look at the airline index, one reason it is unlikely to continue and one reason we are likely to see job cuts in the fall, the airlines have already made substantial cuts with a lot of their salaried workers and theyre still burning through tens of millions of dollars. Thats not expected to change until at least the end of the year if not well into the first quarter. Its going to be tough for those unions to convince congressional leaders to give billions more. It will join delta as the Second Airline to resume flights to chi china, that starts july 8th. If the middle seat is empty, maybe id go what i was referring to is American Airlines announcing its going to lift the limits on capacity that middle seat may not be empty for you. What do you make of this space here given all the bad news . Every carrier is not created equal. American is the one that really needs to pull out the most stops and really i think is at the most risk. This week the theme has been nationalization of Major Industries American Airlines is one most at risk of needing government equity and a payback when you look at the cash burn rates and where capacity has come in and, yes, we got excited about capacity doubling for july from may levels. Its all about the sequence and the timeline to recovery theres nothing about this week that helps that timeline story for airlines having said that, Something Like a delta, which traded through 37 up to 38, pulled all the way back to a 26 handle off about 18 handle low theyve retraced 50 or more of those gains they gave you, say, four weeks ago i think airlines are pricing in a lot of bad news and theyre not all created equal. I would not be going for Balance Sheets at the bottom of heap here. I thought i heard flip barking in the background. I dont know if he was barking in agreement. Thats russell. Stop, russ its been nuts just a couple quick things you know, the griswolds went to wally world, but the park was closed the reason i bring that up is where are you flying to . Theres no place to go, number one. The airlines are absolutely in trouble. In may delta said they were reducing pilots from 14,000 to 7,000. That was the day to buy it you buy delta on a day it trades 120 million shares i think that happens at 24 quickly we call jeff mills the general. His motherinlaw is upset by that she shouldnt be its a term of endearment. Is it not high enough in the scale of military accolades or something . This is the coolest nickname ive ever had. I want it to stick keep it up thats not saying a lot i know. Coming up, amazon the latest tech giant to get into the selfdriving car game. Why the company is making a billion dollar bet on a secretive startup. And what every retail trader needs to know about how to use options. Can i find an Investment Firm with a truly longterm view thats been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years . With capital group, i can. Talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. Amazon making a big deal in the selfdriving car space its not its first either the price that amazon paid was north of a billion dollars making it one of amazons biggest deals. This was last valued in the private market at 3. 2 billion aside from amazons monster purchase of whole foods, amazon has shelled out close to a billion dollars for companies only a few times including zappos, pill back, ring and twitch the big question is of course what does amazon want to do with a selfdriving startup well zooxs has a fleet co another somewhat farther fetched theory is that amazon could actually develop its own autonomous ride hailing fleet. That would pit it against uber and lyft at a time when those Ride Sharing Companies are scaling back amid the pandemic last year amazon invested in another selfdriving car company, aurora and electric truck venture perhaps making that not so farfetched lastly, got to note the deal got the attention of elon musk who tweeted today jeff bezos is a copy cat emoji, ha ha. I like the use of the emoji that really sold the tweet deirdre, thank you speaking of amazon, suntrust rising its price target on the tech giant to 3400 amazon is in a strong position to retain new customers who flocked to the platform during the pandemic when i heard about the zoox news, i immediately thought about the investment and the fact that theyre trying to get out their own transportation hubs and that they could maybe cut down on loss of labor cost if they can make their whole fleet selfdriving in some way, particularly long haul. Thats 100 what i originally thought as well as soon as i heard this news, is that theyre going to try to cut out that labor force. Bezos has said they need to be making bie ining billion dollar. For a billion dollars they could save an awful lot of money if they could turn their Delivery Fleet into Autonomous Vehicles as for amazon and the suntrust 3400, i would consider covid to be the great amazon stimulus act. Everybodys been ordering off them you cant even get same day delivery in some places anymore because theyre so busy. If theres going to be a second wave as we go through this, it probably, i dont know, unfortunately sadly because were having a second wave, benefits amazon. This is just something that you look at this acquisition you look and say, hey, thats something for the future. Jeff . Yeah. I mean i thought the suntrust note was interesting it obviously highlighted the trend in ecommerce. They said 20 of the people they interviewed hadnt purchased a physical good online before. I dont know where they found those people but interesting nonetheless. They also said it seems like those people are willing to continue to spend on amazon. Theres a stickiness there of new Customer Acquisition it seems like theres some production innsynergy. Over the longterm, i think it just shows theyre continuing to invest in areas where they want to be at the forefront and where the trends are really powerful. Coming up, losing stream, why one trader is going short on starbucks. In the 6 00 hour, a major fashion corroboration got us thinking what celebrity partnerships do our traders think need to happen to revive some Failing Companies where will you go first . Wherever you may go, lexus will welcome you back with exceptional offers on exceptional vehicles. Get zero percent financing and make no payments for up to 90 days on all 2020 lexus models. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Can i find an Investment Firm with a truly longterm view thats been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years . With capital group, i can. Talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. Final trade time tim . At t with low rates we stay here. Bk . You know what you dont own enough of is gold. Buy it and buy it again. General i think zoom needs a rest here its 126 above its longterm moving average its 86 times sales. It seems like the place thats ripe for competition guy take two interactive. That does it for this half hour dont go anywhere. Special edition of fast at the top of the hour. Cool . Drop the taco. Get in the car. Does this sentra feel like a compromise to you . Wait, what. . The handling is good, right . No compromise there. Nope watch this. Umm. Bbrie. Brie brie rear automatic braking. So if this Nissan Sentra isnt gonna compromise, why should you . Youre right atta girl. The allnew Nissan Sentra. With more standard safety features than any other car in its class. Can i find an Investment Firm with a truly longterm view thats been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years . With capital group, i can. Talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. Talk to your financial professional or consultant this virus is testing all of us. And its testing the people on the front lines of this fight most of all. So abbott is getting new tests into their hands, delivering the critical results they need. And until this fight is over, we. Will. Never. Quit. Because they never quit. Happy friday weve got an exciting show lined up for you all youve heard him say it consistently, rates to zero, precious metal to infinity carter worth has yet more directional data to put his money where his mouth is and tall is a size at starbucks. Short is tony zangs call on the stop hell show you how to order that in options speak finally, speaking of. I think this is an interesting setup. As al pacin