Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240712

Down jim, it was nice to hear becky give you props for the caution you have telegraphed in the past couple days. Watching your twitter feed it sounds like you are on alert for vying option at month end. You have could be cognizant of the fact that two days before july 4th the holiday are the two probably most strongest days in the entire year. I do think theres still too much froth you can watch nvidia today, there is a love affair with nvidia and the analysts which includes me. That one has to go up. The love for nvidia is so strong that you have to say, okay, that is your thats your bell cow here but i do think, again, that and, david, youve seen t there is that cohort of people who keep coming back to the airlines, keep coming back to the cruises, keep coming back to the tankers and those are the weakest part of the economy. It is, and for a reason you know the reason. I mean, look at the map, right thats really what you have to do at this point look at the map, jim weve been talking about it for weeks now, its not as though this is news that cases have been going up in certain states but now weve gotten to a level where its gotten everybodys attention of course it is worrisome. The death rate has been lower. We can hope that that continues. Hospitalizations up, new cases up dramatically and percentage of those tested who are positive up dramatically as well, jim right. I dont know what that says for future air travel, but it cant be good or for vacations or more openings of parks like disneyland which obviously has been pushed back as a result of california regulators more than anything else. Right. You do wonder whether we are going to see some roll on effects here how do you open parks in florida . Its back to the stay at home trade. Thats what we didnt expect we didnt expect its back to people working at home, having fun at home, hopefully there is we had a great number from mccormick today, i dont know whether it was as great as what people were expecting, there was an interesting, very interesting discussion kb homes on the Conference Call which talks about whats really going on the analysts are bulled up because rates are down, at one point the company says but you have to have a job you cant buy a house without a job. The 600 dunned dooesnt do it the 1,200 doesnt do it thats the way i read the thing. People who have aggressively moved into the america wakens trade, i think, should wait to you have to get up early early to what dr. Gottlieb said which is its going to be difficult to get this thing under ontrol it reads like a Science Fiction thats the line that we heard in the stand. Its going to be hard to get it under control. That was the president talking thats a fiction its a fiction its great stephen king book. Gottlieb is reading a lot like king yeah. Except in that in that novel there was actual direction from the federal government where really there is a lack thereof there was a plan. It didnt work. Now its just the silence is deafening. David, do you know what they did, remember, this he closed off the lincoln tunnel and remember what it did nothing. In the stand. New york and connecticut and new jersey are trying to close off things and, i dont know, i had the governor of rhode island on yesterday, remember, they put the National Guard out there i mean, this is an incredible story where its state against state. I actually havent seen it since what was that, like 1861 that caused silence. That was the civil war. That was not a good period, no. No, that was suboptimum. The states that the tristate area are limiting travel from in terms of quarantine, alabama, arkansas, florida, North Carolina interesting california is not on that list, jim given the problems theyve got in terms of the surge records, of course, and as david mentioned the pressure on disney out west, we will see what it means for walt disney world. Nevada, of course, now mandating masks. Caesars doing a uturn on that as well. Were seeing pockets of reversal kudlow is on the tape right now, says he sees unemployment sub 10 by yearend but says that hot spots will lead to shutdowns in certain areas, even though he says the economy at large will not be closed down again. I think that one of the problems is we were having a nice kind of gradual return in people flying and now weve slipped right back into the, i dont know, i mean, do i want a texan next to me, do i want alabama next to me phil lebeau is spot on where the head of airbus america is talking about the tentative thing. You can wear masks i dont want to hear you can wear masks i went in december to an island and i came back and i had a person next to me who was sick and i had a mask on because i had this premonition that things were going to go wrong and i still got incredibly sick, but if she had had a mask on maybe i would have been healthy. It wrecked the rest of my vacation i think people have to understand that if youre going to be here is what the Airline People always say, hey, listen, same thing in buildings, i can tell you in a building you can go outside other than once in a really good Twilight Zone did i ever see anybody go outside rod sterling. Mask wearing certainly seems to be at the center of a lot of controversy in the country and perhaps one of the reasons why weve seen this surge in texas, oklahoma, florida, montana, idaho, washington and a number of other states weve been talking about. You know, along with any number of other things, guys. But, jim, does it mean to your point back to that stay at home trade, back to that index that you created a couple of months ago or its the cramer covid19. Is it just generally bad its peloton, david we had a guy who upgraded positive on peloton today. Peloton has become its kind of like the mcguffit in hitchcock. Hey, its the one everyone seems to be after but are they really after peloton at this point . Its back to the covid cramer index or cramer covid index. That means youre talking about the october tiffs and the d scalers and the zen desk, ring central, david, how can i help you . Thats where were going you know ring central. I do. I know ring central. I know a lot of these names now as a result of you focusing on them for good reason. Look at that c scaler how about fastly are you into fastly . Fastly yeah, fastly is doing better than zoom or at least growing faster, i guess. You tell me. Im going to date. You i look at zoom with a 72 billion market value, up from the last time i mentioned it a couple days ago. Davie, fastly looks good here thats like, you know, its like a horse race well, it is Blue Horseshoe in that sense look at zoom thats q2. That aint everest, thats k2. A tougher climb just so you know. That is a very davie there is fastly davie Search Global is this one of his names . Are we talking about that guy again . We are talking about dave portnoy, he is in a lot of those situations that are not necessarily as well capitalized or in the Balance Sheet that you may approve of, david. Got it. Got it carl, you know what were buying i mean, honestly carnival thats a blue chip where is carl to get a handle on where we are in terms of new cases, hospitalization, positivity lets bring in our meg tirrell this morning good morning, meg. Good morning, carl. Lets look at the numbers, hit ago record in the United States in new daily cases yesterday, anywhere between 37,000 or 45,000 depending on which data source you use that continued uptick in the new cases. Of course, the positive rate of tests also rising for more than a week 1 2, yesterday it was 6. 7 that indicates its not just increased testing contributing to this in multiple states reporting new daily highs in case numbers yesterday from california, reporting more than 7,000, texas and florida as well. Arizona is now seeing Testing Capacity under strain and hospitalizations as you can see here continuing to rise. Houston in particular calling out its icu capacity really coming under strain. Last night houstons Health Authority was on the 7 00 show with scott wapner who asked them if they should put their reopening on pause or even reverse back to shutdowns. Here is what he told scott there are consequences not only economic but theres also health care consequences to that, too. I try to tell people we are no longer at a point where we can eliminate the risk we now need to think about managing the risk. So not looking at going back to those shutdowns this is what were seeing around the country, guys. If you look here its mainly states putting their reopenings on hold rather than actually reversing course either states or various counties taking these actions. There is one county that encapsulates boise, idaho, that is going in reverse. They told bars and night clubs that they had to shut down again after a concerning surge in cases. They have been open for just a month. Really what were seeing is a pause even as Public Health experts say some places might need to consider going back to those more stringent mitigation steps. Back over to you meg, yesterday goldman put out a note that said they think the line at which states would be under pressure to reverse the reopening process would be about 20 or Hospital Capacity below 20 . Is that sort of the general line that youre hearing . There are a few gauges that you can use, you know, if you look at the guidelines put out by the federal government and the cdcs guidance on those guidelines, you know, if trends start going in the wrong direction, theyve been saying you can move between negating stages if your trends are going in the right direction for two weeks, the cdc says municipalities should act swiftly if they see trends reverse and thats not what were seeing perhaps that 20 Hospital Capacity is a good threshold to use and we are seeing many place was less than a available right now. They do point out alabama, maryland, 23 of icu beds available, 25 in arizona we will watch all of that. Meg, we will talk to you in a little while thanks, meg tirrell. When we come back this morning we will get to some of the calls that jim and david were mentioning. New initiation on peloton, a downgrade of boeing. A lot more when squawk on the street continues. 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In the most interesting a spect of what you just brought up, we had lots of data points and especially durable goods quite powerful we can argue on initial and continuing claims under 20 million is a positive on continuing we could argue whether initial claims was a disappointment based on expectations, but the point is that Interest Rates continue to be soft and the intraday of ten shows that all of those data, the litany of data didnt really change that dynamic. Open the chart up for tens to a twoweek chart and you can see how we have given up all these recent gains even though they have been small gains but many like myself look at rises in yield at a time where theres so many questions regarding the question as a positive as they get soft especially under the conditions of kind of a messy equity market of late it isnt really depicting a future thats good news and thats the way to read the treasuries currently. Its not only that if you look at short maturities, especially threes, fives and sevens they are within two basis points of their all time low yield closes which is really amazing. You have to go out to the ten year to find anything left on the bone and we are only about a dozen basis points above the all time low yield close in tens and on 30s what a difference the longer maturity makes, 99 is the low basis point in close for 30, they are currently hovering around 140 so theres some distance there which is why investors globally like that maturity you can see on the year to date sevens what im talking about, how close it is to the all time low yield close which is around 47 basis points. Lets look at a three day of the dollar index, this is still obviously nowhere near where it was when it was over 100 but we have rallied one sent off the test on tuesday of unchanged on the year at 96. 40 and that is a positive development, but its a positive development in the dollar during periods of volatility in equities, carl, jim, david, back to you. Rick, thank you rick santelli. We want to take a look at disney now, mentioned it briefly in the opening block of the show. The decision by the company to postpone the opening of its Disneyland Park saying that the state of california has indicate it had will not issue theme park reopening guidelines until sometime after july 4th and given the time required for us to bring thousands of cast members back to work and restart our business, we have no choice but to delay the reopening of our theme parks and resort hotels until we receive approval from government officials. Of course, when it comes to disney overall, theme parks as we had pointed out many times are very important, it is going to be a rocky opening, no doubt, one way or the other youve also got production of movies that has been in hiatus, questions about the theatrical releases of movies given where we are right now in terms of attendance at movie theaters questions about sports programming, espn. Dont forget Media Network still an important component overall of operating income as of course is parks, near yeexperiences an profits. Disney plus, what a success its been, its contribution to operating income is still going to be quite small while the revenue number keeps going up because theyre spending so much on t you are talking about a company that has added a lot of debt to its Balance Sheet, you could see it trip into a 4. 5 inches 5 times leverage ratio which could scare off some investors as well. Its well run financially and they did tap the market a couple times, but, david, i think one of the undercurrents of this era when you get off the desk and talk to people is there is a disbelief that all these different commissioners and owners are telling us about sports disney needs sports. Its very, very important. When someone says, do you know what, were going to put all the players in a bubble in florida, well, remember, its not just the players, you need the whole staff. If you are going to put football in a bubble you are talking about thousands of people that need to be put in a bubble put them on some sort of island . Right. I think that disney needs professional sports, but the number of people who have come down with covid, i mean, maybe maybe it wont matter by then, there will be a 15day dlcovid list hole joe cow, i dont want to be disney taking a beating here. I think that disney has to be sweating all these covid announcements versus the confidence that the owners are expressing, its all systems go for all sports yeah, i dont even know where we are in all sports, carl i cant quite get it all together the nba, Major League Baseball very much unclear, hockey obviously not as widely viewed at least on National Television and then the nfl of course as jim brings up is the biggest and most important one from that perspective, from so many perspectives we had hoped to have some clarity heading into july, we are not that far away at this point and still really we are lacking it in terms of a schedule and when everything is fully going to restart, if it will we need herd immunity. Indeed. Look at what theyre doing with the hall of fame game, jim, thats an adjustment djokovic this week testing positive of course, this journal story about whether or not disney is considering delaying mulon which was going to be a big pivot back into theatrical distribution if and when that could happen. The reason i got more cautious is because these are all they are all the piece, they are the reopen trade that i had thought could occur. I listened to baseball, i thought for sure they had something cooking. Adam aaron, putting face masks on, people go to the movies, have face masks. You had good travel numbers versus the week before now every one of those things has reversed i dont know how you can be as bullish if you lose the america awakens trade as we were before and we are back in the stay at home trade which is, you know, frankly look, theres 20 trillion that does well in stay at home but theres about 30 trillion that does well if we awaken and i dont feel very i mean, ive been up since 3 00 but i dont feel very awakened jim, we will talk more about that as we get closer to the opening bell corporate layoffs this morning announced over at macys, we will get to some of dardens numbers. A lot more when we continue as futures are off the session lows back in a minute at leaf blowers. You should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. Make ice. Making ice. But youre not mad because you have e trade which isnt complicated. 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This morning bare comes out, says, look, we are at the trough in spend and its obviously true that theres a lot of travel spend that goes to alphabet and thats been weak, travel, leisure, but theyre saying, listen, its time. I think this is a very important call because right now we have to revert to what got us to these levels if were going to keep going higher, thats apple where we got another estimate tweak up, facebook we are where bare gave us something positive, no one said anything about amazon but alphabet has been the laggard. This is the one that must hold, its kind of braveheart, david i think was it ruth porter who got added to was it the blackstone board, jim . Blackstone board. Ruth . Yeah. She is the best very rare that you look at a board and say, holy cow, that board is really filled with powerfully smart people and congratulations to ruth. Right ruth is the cfo who is ama amazing. Jim, on alphabet along with facebook, early in the pandemic there was a concern that small businesses, mediumsized businesses that are significant advertisers on the alphabet on the Google Search platform would not be there, but the last Conference Calls the only earnings we have so far during this period indicated things were starting to come back is that still a concern as we watch the pandemic spring up again in a significant way around the country these are nominee channel, this is the these are companies that they dont have this channel they cant survive to have this channel you need to go you have to go to those facebook shops, you have to go use alphabet aggressively. You cannot make it without that channel. That channel is too important. Thats another big change thats happened in the stay at home economy. If you are in retail you must find another way to get your wears. If you are in restaurants you have to get a grubhub. These are all part of the changes that actually this is very good news there is no good news about a pandemic getting worse, but the stocks that do better would be google and facebook because of the small to medium sized business that is, david, the backbone of our country. You know that. Yes, i do and they are more and more reliant, as you say, on the digital delivery of their services, jim. Thats an important thing. Something were going to see coming out of this that has changed dramatically for many businesses as well if they want to stay in business thats what theyve got to do. When i mention the c scalers i dont want to be too glib about it when you work at home you open up an incredible portal for the bad guys, thats why all these cybersecurity. Theres the opening bell, guys, as we look for the market to trade maybe a little bit better than early overnight futures might have suggested jim, you mentioned facebook and alphabet, baird today raises targets on both on what theyre calling a gradual recovery in digital ads, Colin Sebastian says that travel might be an overhang for alphabet in particular, but that the Second Quarter was likely the bottom overall. I thought that was a great piece. The two baird pieces i think they can be, again they can be a change in nasdaq will be led by those those two pieces, continuing recognition that Apples Service stream is rather dramatic. Microsoft switched directions for a couple days but its ready to go up those are the stocks that work we are back in the stay at home. Now, there is a lot like i said, a lot of the market does not work with stay at home, particularly anything related to travel and leisure, but, look, you can buy the food stocks again. I know its a boring, boring method of investing, but the food stocks work look, i saw at apple 400 price target today im not going to disagree with it. Im not going to disagree with it because the Service Stream is unbelievable when you are staying at home with not a lot to do. This is also a great netflix trade. Its a spotify trade, too. Youre talking about web bush, but its a bull case 500, not just on a bull case level. A trillion here, a trillion there, right, carl they are looking for 2 trillion. Right look, these semiconductors people who despise the narrowness of the big five i think that they should go today and watch golf because this is a big five day including the semis and zoom video. Yeah. Nvidia is up 1. 5 . Nvidia. Yes. I can champion my own stocks, right . I mean, hey, we know that theres people who are against nvidia and im going to attack the them we have a number of stocks in the green this morning it is not a washout as yesterday was. Man, this tmobile, amazing, up 110 bucks a share. They priced that deal to move. 103, 21 billion in stock weve heard from softbank as well, massa stepping off the board of alibaba, they still own 25 of it, still the single best investment probably ever made and still accounts for a huge amount of softbanks overall value, but he is stepping off the board of alibaba just as jack mass stepped off the board of off bank as well. There is a look at mass is a who said we are not done yet what you think we are at softbank and they did make money from the print deal back to tmobile. They still own 8 or so percent of the company but they ended up making a real return after years of struggling, trying to sort of make a go of it as the fourth carrier, finally getting the deal they always thought they would be able to but years after the fact and finally getting it done years after it was announced and yet they did come out with a what he says is a 25 irr. Most people will take that as for the vision fund not looking quite as good on that one, guys. I have to tell you when they priced please big secondaries you have to be there the regeneron secondary was a gift the blackrock with pnc, gift this was just unbelievable this thing was up it was priced at 103. It was up from the very beginning. Remember one of the worst days of the year. I want to thank you to the Syndicate Desk for actuall letting people make some money they are usually not that inclined, but theyve been very nice so far. Yeah, they have and weve got more coming. We have more coming, guys. We had some chinese deals next week, david. In terms of Debt Capital Markets but also equity Capital Markets. Pg e as it emerges from bankruptcy going to be do that 4 billion deal, i think thats getting priced tonight for tomorrow now, remember, you had a bunch of very wellhealed investors, appaloosa, a whole bunch that came in in a private placement for 3. 5 billion very recently at 10. 50. That made a lot of people feel good. Yeah. Now you are going to have the 4 billion in common sold and of course the stock is well below 10. 50 we will see how that does. Where are they going to price that i dont know. Jim albertsons, which is also going to third time might be a charm they have cut back debt substantially. Its a great time to be a grocer that would seem to be a case. We profiled it last night look, we are not in the high quality phase, that deal has failed twice one time they pulled it back i would say this, that if they price is between 24 and 25 its going to be okay. Albertsons, yeah. Yeah. Thats a big offering oh, its gigantic. One of the biggest weve seen. Carl, im worried here. Peloton is down. That will not stand. Yeah, weve been talking about it all week about this time, it was stevel first, then it was cowan, today its ray jay. Initiate outperform. They are looking at 65, but they are at that you can being not just the market accelerating because of covid but lower acquisition costs and lower churn as people maybe get it into their head that the go im is not going to open anytime soon you saw new york delaying the opening of gyms and movie theaters. Fly squeal trade. What people keep saying to me about peloton is, jim, its actually technology, its not a bike i think that a lot of people are liking the ecosystem the total Addressable Market these are all things when you want a stock to run you use all those terms. Then you say its also got a sass model and their go to market is absolutely terrific and its hard to get the product. There it is. Did i give you every buzzword we need right now to get that one going . You did you did. I like the sass model. Got to have the sass model. Its a sass model. Very important. Now gyms are going to open is really going to be tough, guys. Plexiglas thats the keyword david, this is the grad out. Showers are an issue, apparently the virus hangs in the air, changing rooms and lockers. The idea of these gyms, jim, is to bring together as many people as you can, and it would seem you need to go the opposite direction not to mention spend a lot more money on constantly cleaning its going to be difficult. No, its just the clorox trade again which is unstoppa e unstoppable. I agree with you it may not be enough to dee plex is class, Planet Fitness has a game plan. People want to work out and peloton is the way to do it unless you want to go outside. Nike reports today theres 17 analysts on that and four came out this week saying you must buy nike ahead of the quarter. I have brunswick on tonight, thats something you can do, you can go on a boat thats a way to get you dont get exercise but at least you kind of feel like the u. S. S. Minnow, go out for a little time. Good luck trying to get a boat these days, jim. You cant. Speaking of retail, we mentioned macys cutting 3,900 corporate and management roles, begin net says we know we will be a Smaller Company for the foreseeable future we have l brands and gap all leading earlier today. A break up play earlier this week, l brands is a break up play how many people in management does macys have for the last few months they have been firing people at the corporate level. I mean, i think you need people on the floor and people in technology i think that theres obviously too much in corporate at macys because if theres that many people that can go, its questionable how bloated that company is. Well, this he say here theyre taking the action to align their cost base with their anticipated lower sales. Its cash cash. To that point, jim, this idea somehow that theres going to be a lot of value in this empty space so you can monetize your real estate. Really who is buying it and for what purpose are they going to actually remake it david, thats an existential question that youre asking and for that i have to go to sard or camu those are not stocks. Okay. Some guys will immediately start trading sart but its actually re on the end. Ssartre. And camu. You had some of that. I remember you had some of that that was good. We got it all from boston down to baltimore. We took every bottle of camus. Those were the days we used to be able to get together and actually have a party. You would bring all these people together to celebrate. Carl, was the last time you were happy my surprise 55th birthday you always say this you always say this. The last day any of us were happy was when we were celebrating your birthday. Well, it looks like some people are happy going to olive garden, look at that darden up 3. I was going to ask you about that so dri is higher, narrower than expected loss but some of these comps, jim, olive garden down 39, capital grill down 62 and Current Quarter is still on pace for a 33 decline. People are just happy to see that they are he a getting customers. I go back to chipotle and think how great chipotles numbers are right now because he have the lanes. You have to go to a darden, inside an olive garden what people are excited about is the fact that customers are coming and people are willing to eat inside i come back to mccormick and say people still want to do with that stock up i wish lawrence were on the show today that would have been a good idea to have lawrence on. The stock is exploding higher up 8. Clorox. Yeah. Spice this is the stay at home trade writ large speaking of which, guys, spotify is trading near some record highs up more than 75 in just two months. We will talk to an executive with that company when we come back after the break stay with us so im gonna hold on promoting you this quarter. Cool . Drop the taco. Get in the car. Does this sentra feel like a compromise to you . Wait, what. . The handling is good, right . No compromise there. Nope watch this. Umm. Bbrie. Brie brie rear automatic braking. So if this Nissan Sentra isnt gonna compromise, why should you . Youre right atta girl. The allnew Nissan Sentra. With more standard safety features than any other car in its class. With more standard safety features there are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. People stop what youre doing an listen to this. We are talking about spotify this thing is on a run it has doubled, doubled since bottoming back in february Company Quickly became the goto platform for audio streaming and with us now is someone very happy to knows too much about con spotifys chief content officer dawn ostroff. Thanks for having me, jim. I have to ask the obvious when you started doing the podcast thing i said this is brilliant and i immediately was told you idiot, podcast doesnt work, its about music how did you know that podcasts would be huge . Well, its interesting because when you look at the growth of the medium its hard to deny and not only is it growing to rapidly its the Fastest Growing medium right now and when you look at the median age of who is listening to podcasts you will see that its the youth, the young generations that are really driving this trend. So the median age is as an example on our platform is 26 years old, but what we know is that where the young people go the older generations follow and we have seen it time and time again. So we are seeing Significant Growth and in the u. S. As an example 88 Million People were listening to podcasts in 2019 and its trajectory is to have 160 million listeners in just the next few years so thats just in the u. S. Alone and podcast is really a global medium. We have been daniel lack on several times and he is i think one of the most brilliant people around but he is data driven when you pick a joe rogan and you pay him a lot of money i think you seem to have an ability to recognize how much someone is worth because the stock spiked when did you that deal how do you is it Artificial Intelligence that you know who is going to pop . Well, in joes case he has been the number within or number two podcaster for quite some time and he has millions of very passionate and loyal fans who we believe will follow him on to the platform joe rogan does not is not on spotify right now, but yet he is the most searched podcast that we have. So we were able to really say, okay, if hes the most searched podcast on our platform, we know that he has millions of very loyal fans that we believe will follow him on and he is the most profitable podcast at this moment in time, so for us it was an easy business decision. Well, one other before i give you over to my colleagues who also want to speak to you, but sometimes i struggle to see what i can do or watch or listen to with my 28 soon to be 29yearold. What we do is we do true crime we do people who have been convicted wrongly. Somehow it resonates with us it obviously resonates with your listeners. Well, true crime is actually the largest genre in podcasting so you are not alone what we see is that true crime tends to be a gateway genre which means we wind up seeing people come into podcasting through true crime and then they migrate and try other types of podcasts and other types of genres so its a great way to bring people in and people get addicted to these True Crime Podcast series we actually acquired a Company Called parcast about a year and a half ago which is the leading producer of true crime genre and their numbers tripled since we bought them on the platform. We do know that true crime is still growing and there is a lot of room for innovation in that genre space. So you are not alone and i will say, though, that one of the most popular podcasts for women is true crime. So you also have some women listening with you dawn, its david faber. You know, you guys are clearly in the market to spend what it takes to secure talent you think is going to help subscriptions howard stern, his deal is not that far off if im not incorrect. He is an awfully large name out there. I mean, would you guys go as far as trying to compete for talent like that . Well, i cant comment on howards deal, but, you know, i can say that we look at who is the largest in the podcast area and some of the deals that weve made are with talent that we really believe will either or already exist have a big following in this space. So although howard is great, i know that he has been tied to another company. But when you look at some of the deals that we have made, you know, we do believe that the companies that weve bought and the talent that we brought on to the platform will help us become the number one audio platform in the world. Dawn, when it comes to your deals with the record companies, the likes of warner music, for example, which we know 30 of its rev news or 27 are spotify and apple together, are those deals simply licensing deals where you are just paying as a result of playing the music or are they getting a percent of your subscription fee because i wonder if thats the case, and your subscriptions are going up as a result not of music but of podcasting, would you need to rework some of those deals well, one of the reasons why we got into the podcast business is because we believe that theres a lot of Growth Opportunity on the podcast side and when you think about our monetization, david, you know, 90 of our monetization is on the subscription side, but 10 is on the ad side and we do think that theres real Growth Opportunity for us in the ad space, particularly with podcasts its a business that has not been modernized. Theres no Digital Access tod today data and audio analytics to the advertisers there thats been a focus for us on updating the ways there have been transparency on the ad side and podcast side for growth. Theres a thought that if people in lockdown, your company would do poorly because what you love, people will be in the car. That turned not to be true it turned out covid schiffed your will beelisteners. How did you weather this we have an interesting Business Model we call it its a free and subscription tier. Many times well see users come through the free tier and convert to premium we have flexibility for the user if they want to convert back to free, they can what all the flexibility has done is allowed us to see how the habits have shifted and changed. Both in the user consumption as well as where and how and what theyre listening to as an example, although a commute is usually a place where people listen to audio content, we now see that at home theyre listening on their consuls, their gaming consuls which has really been a big shift for us as well as their smart speakers at home. And the kind of content theyre listening to as really shifted so we see them listening to everything from chill content, meaning, you know, chill music, or class cical music we see more kids content and more wellness podcasts being listened to in addition to all the information podcasts that are giving them information about covid as an example were seeing a big migration, but whats really interesting is we believe a lot of the changes in the habits will stick even after the world returns to normal and we think this group listening will continue to be the trend. Okay. Well, dawn, congratulations on your success double and also very exciting. Were big fans of spotify at home i think some of the other people on our set are, too. Chief content officer, dawn, thank you. Thank you so much, jim. Thank you, dave and carl carl, back to you all right jim, thanks so much. Obviously markets down once again after a down day for the nasdaq yesterday snapping that 8day win streak financials threatening to go green as well as energy. Were back in a minute when the world gets complicated, a lot goes through your mind. With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. Wherever you make go, lexus will welcome you back with exceptional offers. Get zero percent financing and make no payments for up to 90 days on all 2020 lexus models. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Experience amazing i geh. Common bird. E. Ooh look over here something much better. There it is. Peacock, included with xfinity x1. Remarkable. Fascinating. Very. It streams tons of your favorite shows and movies, plus the latest in sports news and. Huh run the newest streaming app has landed on xfinity x1. Now thats. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No strings attached. Just say peacock into your voice remote to start watching today. Boing is the biggest dow loser. Now delta says theyre unlikely to add many more flights for the remainder of the year beyond what they have in august were wac in a moment. I have an idea for a trade. Oh yeah, you going to place it . Not until im sure. Why dont you call Td Ameritrade for a strategy gut check . Whats that . You run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. Couldve used that before i hired my interior decorator. Voila maybe a couple throw pillows would help. Get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. At mercedesbenz, nothing service will do. Class thats why were expanding your range of choices. Many dealers now offer optional pickup delivery and athome maintenance, as well as Online Shopping with Home Delivery and special finance arrangements. So, whether you visit your local dealer or prefer the comfort of home you can count on the very highest level of service. Get 0 apr financing up to 36 months on most models, and 90day firstpayment deferral on any model. Youre first. First to respond. First to put others lives before your own. And in an emergency, you need a network that puts you first. That connects you to technology to each other and to other agencies. Built with and for first responders. Firstnet. The only officially authorized Wireless Network for first responders. Because putting you first is our job. News on beyond meat. Thats what jim is looking at. Holy cow. Mcdonalds, reports out of canada saying the trial is done and that mcdonalds is not going to pursue it i spoke with mcdonalds the other day, they said their time will come, but its clearly not yet. Its been a busy week for alternative meats. This is a setback. Starbucks overseas. Impossible has local because beyond meat has got a relationship with Dunkin Donuts but look, it was pivotal that mcdonalds take it, and obviously the trial did not succeed. I am surprised particularly because the meat producers in the country have not distinguished themselves as im not going to pick on them because ive done that before, but wow. Its disappointing from beyond meat for the planet too, i would say jim, what are you going to tackle tonight were going to go sin bwinne, brunswick, and marc benioff. T been one of the worst parts of this market other than the cruiselines and the airlines which are not doing well once again today. Well see you tonight. Okay, guys. See you later. Mad money, 6 00 p. M. Eastern time good thursday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla weakness on this thursday morning. Dow down 100 s p at 3038. Its curious to see in a soggy tape, goldman and jtp leading the tape right now the financials are strong today, so to speak, at least, as you say in a down tape listen, one of the things i can come back is the extraordinary level of Capital Markets activity weve talked about so aub. Weve talked about Corporate Bond issuance, whether its Investment Grade or junk the wave of secondaries. The selling by soft bank but also ipos. Were going to have a big quarter there, one would expect. Will that be outweighed by increases at the big banks unclear. Thats one thing you can key off of this morning as one reason im sure there are others as to why the financials have some strength yeah. Well learn more tomorrow. In the meantime, lets bring in bob doll, a chief equity strategist, and also a cio at exponens tina, let me ask you about the general narrative threading through the country regarding covid do you believe at this stage that broad reopenings are drtru being threatened and is the market king off that i think you will continue to see kind of rolling ws, if you will, localized ws within the economy. I will note some of the more serious case increases are in the emerging markets such as india, and mexico. But i will also say that if you look at sweden and iran provide an interesting case study where they are clearlybeginning to see a second wave of cases death rates are actually not increasing at the same level as the first wave i think thats in part because we learned to isolate the vulnerable better, improve our reaction times and have them pose better therapeutic measures and so that is a key point it challenges the notion of a vshaped recovery. Bob, how about you . The most constructive thing we can say right now about Public Health is the fact that hospitalizations are ticking up but its not as dramatic as new cases and the death count continues to moderate. Maybe its about the median age coming down. Maybe it is about better overall controls in terms of the epicenter of the virus i think, carl, that the covid data remains the most important set of data points when you get these worries about flairup as weve seen the last 48 hours, the market is red. And you know, another couple of days where its kind of quiet and maybe theres rumors of a therapeutic or a vaccine make progress gresz, the market is up thats the main story and behind that, of course, is the economic story which is almost as important, but this is not going to be straight up. Off the shutdown the economy, weve seen a lot of good news as a lot of data move from very low to less low, but the increase was impressive, and the markets liked that its not going to be a Straight Line well have bumps along the way i would buy the bumps but the market is ahead of itself in my view yeah. Tina, i mean, certainly fits and starts seems to be the phrase thats getting used a lot this week in terms of the mixed bag of numbers whether it is what were seeing in terms of the coronavirus case flairups or the economic data, the latest economic data. Im curious if you see this as rolling ws, what does that mean in terms of how you should be invested in the market i would agree that it will be but if you look at the markets have rapid continued downgrades in q2 earnings estimates. But if you think stocks are expensive, check out bonds if you look at earnings deals which are well above bond yields so then you and then you also have quite a bit of cash, you know, if you look at mutual funds on the sidelines so are the fundamentals shaky and obviously theres the volatility of the virus out there, but you know, youve been getting into this fomo game or fear of missing out where i think the dips are buying opportunities. I would, however, have a barbell strategy between defensive and health and tech which i think has a stronger structural profit story. But also some cyclicals which will be playing off of chinese reflation nar policy, particularly in infrastructure and construction bob, i realize covid and countering covid seems to be the overarching theme in terms of whats driving the market on a daily basis right now, but there are some other currents underneath the surface right now, whether its trade risk with a number of different countries. Whether its what people are talking about election risk. What a potential biden presidency would look like and theres technical positioning happening as well including the annual reconstitution tomorrow how much is that factoring into the gyrations were seeing . I think its definitely there. Fomo is pushing the market up. Thank you, fed they have all the money anybody ever wanted and we shouldnt fight the fed, but on the other hand, you put a litany of issues i think the market is not yet focussed on the election, and the probability of a democratic sweep, seems to be rising almost every day. If thats the case taxes are going to go up and regulation is going to go up i dont think thats real market friendly so i think theres a lot of toing and froing i think june will be the first month in a series of months where we look back and say the market churned it bumped around just when you thought it was okay, it gets smacked. Just when you thought were going to have a problem, it rallies. We have to adjust the amazing gains as we come off the nasty recession. Bob, finally, theres continued discussion about fiscal cliffs we have with regard to households one is the 600 cares act benefit running out at the end of july and then in september, those who lost their job will see ui run out completely is that too far off for the market to digest is the music just playing too loudly at the moment probably is playing too loudly having said that the market is probably also saying look, the run around in washington trying to come up with another bill and my guess is they will and keep in mind, both of the cliffs. It wont be the same numbers, i hope it needs to be something lower we continue incentivize people to stay home if theyre making more from the government than going to work. The cliffs are real if we dont address them something well be talking about obviously in about a month or two or three. Bob, tina, thank you for kicking off the hour we appreciate it very much thank you thank you speaking of the cares act, the Government Accountability office is out with its first report card on carethe cares acw have more. In 400 pages of findings, there was a report released acknowledging the unprecedented nature of the crisis and the speed of the aid that was needed but finds significant lapses in the administration and transparency of the stimulus packages so far. In the report it notes treasury has sent 1. 4 billion of stimulus checks to 1. 1 million dead people. It calls for collaboration between the Social Security administration and treasury not only to keep that from happening but also to ensure that that money can be returned as quickly as possible. It calls on the department of transportation to launch a comprehensive plan for the Aviation Industry and notes throughout the spring and as recently as may the plan had not been constructed it also notes sba and treasury in administering the Paycheck Protection Program had significantly moved the goal post in terms of guidance and failed to provide Critical Data needed to borrowers and lenders alike. It goes into the most detail about the ppp and some of the lapses that took place there it said there was no system in place to keep people from obtaining both wages through the ppp program as well as Unemployment Insurance it says that sba was the only agency that did not provide gao the Critical Data to put together the program it notes it took sba 20 days to update guidance that would take publicly traded companies to get many of the companies required to return that money after they had already received it now, the gao is the watchdog for the whole of government. Of course, given the size of the stimulus programs and the size of the government itself, and the response throughout many federal agencies, it is clear there will be a series of reports over the next several months that will look at the state departments effort, the cdc effort, the fda, hhs so this is the first of many in a series of reports that we are expecting them to take a very critical look at how the government responded back to you. Yeah. Of course, our reports well be watching closely im sure youll bring us the meat on. Thank you. Its worth noting how quickly the sba propped up the ppp program initially. Well see how it continues to shake out. Turbulence for airline stocks, what are the best buying opportunities what are the ones to steer clear of, especially as we see the quarantines put in place in places like new york, icw jersey and connectut well break it down next stay with us music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. I geh. Common bird. E. Ooh look over here something much better. There it is. Peacock, included with xfinity x1. Remarkable. Fascinating. Very. It streams tons of your favorite shows and movies, plus the latest in sports news and. Huh run the newest streaming app has landed on xfinity x1. Now thats. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No strings attached. Just say peacock into your voice remote to start watching today. Welcome back were looking at financials. Ticker kbe rebounding this morning. Trying to break a fourday losing streak. This is the bank etf still down more than 30 already for the year up almost two right now. Lets get to willford frost with news on the sector ahead of those fed stress test results were going to get after the bell later today morgan, yes the banks turned around 10, have a minutes ago on the news the fdic Board Meeting as we speak one of the agenda items is discussing the future of the volker rule. In particular that rule stops banks from proprietary trading of stocks and private equity funds, usually referred to as covered funds. What we understand theyre discussing is changing the rules as it relates to the covered fund provision the relationship the banks can have with hedge funds as opposed to the proprietary trading parts of the rule and they have been voting on that and amending the covered fund provision as we speak today. Thats allowed the banks to turn around having been a little at the open and now up at about 2 . A nice turn around for the banks, al bee it less than what they declined yesterday and banks have declined c significantly year to date and the same day as stress tests from the Federal Reserve around 4 p. M. Sounds like its going to be an extra busy day for you. Thank you for joining us and breaking down those headlines especially at a time where liquidity is so very in focus for the financial markets. Definitely Key Developments to watch. Well continue to watch the bank stocks in the meantime, looking at the s p, its puturned positive. The dow is higher right now fractionally up 67 points. Well be back after this break stay with us i opened a sofi money account and it was the first time that i realized i could be earning interest back on my money. I just discovered sofi, and im an investor with a diversified portfolio. Who am i . i refinanced my Student Loans with sofi because of their low Interest Rates. Thanks sofi for helping us get our money right. For as little as 5, now anyone can own companies in the s p 500, even if their shares cost more. At 5 a slice, you could own Ten Companies for 50 instead of paying thousands. All Commission Free online. Schwab stock slices an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. Schwab. Own your tomorrow. Can i find an Investment Firm with a truly longterm view thats been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years . With capital group, i can. Talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. A single day high for new coronavirus cases. A travel advisory for those coming from some of the states seeing a spike that one reason the Airline Sector was down yesterday. Today a mixed bag. Lets bring in an analyst to help us break down what exactly is going on here he le helen, a lot of highly populated states are getting hid hard right now. Whats your take on what thats going to mean for air travel and the companies . Were very concerned about the states in question, particularly florida and texas since they were seeing such a nice recovery. And in florida, specifically with orlando, universal and sea world opened a couple weeks ago and they were seeing a recovery and were concerned about didsny world. The 600 plus people that traveled on monday was well ahead of the 400,000 we were forecasting by august but with this new continuation of the wave, its issconcerning presumably testing is up so you would get more positive cases but hospitalizations are really what is driving i think peoples concern right now. Yeah. And the positive rate of those tests is quite high. I mean, arizona over 20 how are you viewing the industry overall at this point . 600,000 number certainly a positive, but as we head into the rest of the summer, july 4th, typical travel weekend and into the fall, you know, are they going to need more money are they going to expand in terms of capacity . Or are they going to stay where they are okay. I think those are a lot of questions. First, i think theyre going to mostly stay where they are i know delta is adding 1,000 flights next month and then 1,000 flights in august and then probably stay put. I think most of the airlines will not grow much past the numbers they have in place for august because i think after labor day without Business Travel coming back, demand is going to be very concerning. Especially if schools reopen do people get back to work will Business Travel recover and on and on. We could spend an hour talking about this and so were definitely worried about what happens after labor stay specifically, because usually things fall off anyway thursday friday and sunday and monday are peak days tuesday and wednesday are always weak days. And then were looking at fourth of july. It will be important for travelers to feel comfortable traveling next weekend, and going out to some of those places, mountain states, the desert, golf vacations and so on, and so i think that if the industry is trying to salvage the summer and without summer traffic, its going to be really concerning going into the winter months now, that said, we said last friday the industry has raised 46. 5 billion in u. S. , not including the cares act. And then this week you saw alaska air and american in the market with deals. American raised 3. 5 million last night and they raised another 2 billion earlier in the week in an Equity Offering which you had asked me about a couple weeks ago when i was here last did i think they should sell equity and so i think from the liquidity perspective, well be okay going into the Fourth Quarter and the first quarter. But if theres a second or third wave and people are really reluctant to travel, we obviously will be very worried about the industry in 2021 and maybe not so much in the u. S. And by the way, i dont think the government will be willing to give more money to the u. S. Airlines i think theyre going to have to figure out a pay to raise capital and improve liquidity on their own. Were worried about the European Airlines they make most of their money in the summer without a summer, there will be more bankruptcies in europe, i think. Yeah. Something to watch its morgan. Its good to see you im curious. Even before covid19, we had another issue that was plaguing the airlines, that was boeings 737 max. You reports today that theres a list of changes that european regulators want but in the u. S. At least you could see the recertifications starting to happen for the faa as soon as next week. If that plane actually does come online in the next couple weeks, is that a positive now for the airlines or is that a negative as we see all the aircraft being parked. Its interesting. Its the first max question ive had. Heres what im thinking about it as it comes on. Look, the way to think about it once it gets recertified, it takes at least 60 days for the airlines to get it back in the air. 30 days for the manuals to be appro approved by the faa and then the Pilot Training to get the pilots back anything i suspect thats already been financed if you look at through some of these financings that have been done, some are secured by future max deliveries those will be taken this year i suspect, especially by the u. S. Airlines the ones that havent yet been financed probably get pushed to 2021, because we just dont need the capacity yet and we continue to think that theres Something Like 800 to 1,000 aircraft that are 18 years of age and older that will never come back into the u. S. Network or at least not for at least the next four or five years until theres a recover. As you know, i think the recovery is three to five years away well, recovery to last year levels is three to five years away yeah. Well, those are the numbers a lot of people are keyed on thank you for the update appreciate it. Thanks, david thanks, morgan meantime, were getting a lot of news regarding covid19 a news update now. Heres your update at this hour the u. S. Recording the highest daily increase for covid19 yesterda turning now to paris, the eiffel tower reopening today after the pandemic led to its longest closure since world war ii visitors will only be able to climb up to the second level of the tower. And the 146th Kentucky Derby will be held september 5th and spectators will be allowed the venue will reduce the capacity but visitors will be encouraged, not mandated to maintain social distancing and wear face coverings. The chuck e. Cheese Parent Company filed for bankruptcy protection for more, head to cnbc. Com squawk on the street continues after the break. It is now a good time to invest and whats the publics confidence in the stock market Steve Liesman has the results of our new all America Survey hey, steve good morning, carl. Yeah n. Stocks have taken a rebound. Our survey shows a rebound in attitude to whether or not its a good time to invest in stocks. April one of the worst readings. 41 thought it was a good time to invest. 45 bad. Thats now flipped and reversed. 43 say its a good time to invest in stocks and 37 say its a bad time. 19 are uncertain and saying they dont know which way to go. Look agent the chart, weve been through a period, the last couple years of volatility in the attitudes. The good timers really ruled the day. That changed in december of 2018 when we had concern about the fed raising rates. Again, the trade war of 2019 and you can see the back and forth at the end with the height of the coronavirus concern and then some relaxation here but we havent seen but we often do see any kind of sort of increase in the popularity of gold as an investment. Compared to 2017, 29 still think stocks are the best investme investment 29 say real estate down from 37 and gold just 16 despite the low Interest Rates its down from 24 no real surge into gold looking at the political findings we found that joe biden, the krk president ial contender extending his lead to 9 points in the head to head survey President Trump lost just a point. But biden consolidated his base with more support from young people and democrats hes up to 88 from democrats. Looking at the issues here of the issues we asked. President trump has the edge on the best policies on just the economy. Foreign policy and the bigger one, police reform, dealing with covid19, health care and racial inequality, joe biden has a commanding lead as you move to the right of the chart President Trump doing okay on the economy, though, carl. Even while the survey shows 60 think that the economy will not recover for another year, and only a third of the public believe their wages will increase in the next year. Thats the lowest level weve had since 2012 carl great place to start with our next guest who manages 18 billion of hawaii pensions joinings us now Elizabeth Burton thank you for being with us. Good morning. Thank you for having me. I want to get your thoughts on the market, especially today where the low for the dow is down now positive by more than 100 points what do you see as the major themes or major factors driving the market right now and how is it shaping your investment thesis i think i originally said the equity and asset markets were telling different stories. As of yesterday it looks a little bit like maybe the markets are getting on the same page but whats interesting is why the market actually is as strong as it is given where the economy is where it is essentially if you think about where the levels are, is it i realize they project into the future, but are we saying the world is as good now as it was in february . I dont know the data emerging on that is mixed. Only time will tell, but i think were in a dislocation certainly between main street and the markets. Zbl youre watching inflation or the possibility of surprise inflation very closely right now. How do you see it, and how is that, again, how is that shaping the decisions youre making in terms of investing opportunities right now . Yes i spent quite a bit of time looking at inflation i spent the last year looking at it and then had to kind of redo all my analysis when covid hit. But one of the largest inputs into any Asset Allocation framework is the expectations about future inflation i think one of the difficulties for us is if you look at the twenties, theres few periods of inflationary periods to draw conclusions from the drivers in each of the environments were different. So i dont know whether inflation is on the horizon or not, but i think its a risk that we need to be aware of, especially because in those types of environments, the correlation between stocks and bonds tends to be positive as you know when people said on your show many times, we think of the negative correlation, but thats a recent phenomenon so what does that were not a risk party, but what uz it mean for diversification growth risk if inflation occurs . In general, all the assets are based off in those types of periods. The return to markets beta is lower which affects our ability to hit return which is 7 . I was going to ask about that this is david faber. 7 right now youre dealing with rates that are rock bottom there is not a sign of inflation to the extent theres any movement on the feds part to think about raising them it would seem to indicate you have to stay largely in stocks if youre going to generate anywhere near that return you just stated. Right david, youre 100 right i think longterm, you always have to be invested in the market and the equity market if you want to achieve your return over longrun, the only thing that has indicated they can do that are the equity markets. Although, depending on where inflation shakes out, you may be able to tilt your Portfolio One way or the other so the last couple decade winner, quality growth Going Forward, equity markets, maybe value in small cap i think theres time to tell but i think there are two different kind of scenarios if you move into an inflationary regime, especially a surprise inflationary regime, and some of the things that work when inflation is on the right dont work in deflation. You have to be careful about how you allocate your portfolio so the margins, maybe you make adjustments. It doesnt have to be all real assets or tips although, inflation sensitive asse assets, additions to the portfolio would be a great idea. Yeah. Elizabeth, something we might have talked about prior to the pandemic would be esg. I want to ask about it just curious, particularly hawaii, of course as well with all the islands. Do you have an overlay for it, is it something youre focussed on at this point, or is it an abstraction or distraction . We are unpi signatories were meeting with our board to discuss more in depth the trajectory we want to have in place in the portfolio for the policies Going Forward i think in hawaii as you mentioned its a particularly important topic since weve been shut down for the last couple months with no real visitors coming to the island, the water has literally changed colors the sea life is coming back. I think the case has been proven that it does make a difference so were exploring ways how we can get more robust in that area, for sure yeah. Id imagine you probably watch the Labor Department proposals that are clarifying esg investing closely in light of that i want to get your thoughts on the fact that hawaii has a 26 billion short fall and future Retirement Benefits and unfunded liabilities. At a time where were in recession, where this pandemic is hitting a lot of state bungts really hard right now, how are you navigating that in terms of being able to i guess yield greater returns and make up the difference on that short fall . Yeah. Morgan, great question i think that the Investment Strategy tool kit is different for fully funded pensions versus underfunded pensions in terms of our performance, i think weve done very well were liquid we are not forced sellers and weve maintained a lot of our portfolio value. Most important to us because we arent fully funded was that we protect portfolio values that meant we didnt perform as well as some of the pensions who maybe had full risk on portfolios and higher betas. We protected our capital more. But it really paid off this year we actually structured the portfolio to pay off in these sorts of environments. So i cant project whether its a v recovery or w recovery, and how fast well pull back on some of those diversifying strategies but they i think theres a next era in the Portfolio Management evolution of the portfolio, and the board is on board with that and the staff is i think well slightly pivot at the margins now that we saw that portfolio did what it was supposed to. Now we can rebalance to things that may provide a higher return Going Forward. Well, we look forward to hearing more about that. Thanks for joining us today. Elizabeth burton thanks for having me. Well the markets have erased a 236point drop on the dow. Were trading up about 40 points. Financials helping out as we get the adjustments. Texas now is sus spending ecveurri in some of the biggest cities were back in just a minute. So im gonna hold on promoting you this quarter. Cool . Drop the taco. Get in the car. Does this sentra feel like a compromise to you . Wait, what. . The handling is good, right . No compromise there. Nope watch this. Umm. Bbrie. Brie brie rear automatic braking. So if this Nissan Sentra isnt gonna compromise, why should you . Youre right atta girl. The allnew Nissan Sentra. With more standard safety features than any other car in its class. Stocks at a critical cross road according to one strategist find out how iesnvtors can hedge on trading nation. More squawk on the street is coming up. Oh, we love our new home. Neighborhoods great. Amazing school district. The hoa has been very involved. These shrubs arent board approved. You need to break down your cardboard. Thank you. Violation. Violation. I see youve met cynthia. At least geico makes bundling our home and Car Insurance easy. And it does help us save a bunch of money. Two inches over regulation. Thanks, cynthia. For bundling made easy, go to geico. Com it started with a few fifty dollars here. Eighty dollars. A hundred dollars. I had good health insurance. Why isnt this covered . Well, then they started getting bigger. Eighthundred dollars. Eighteen hundred dollars. I saved for this. But not that much. Im glad i had aflac. They gave me money when i needed it most. Thats why aflac is here, to help with the Expenses Health insurance doesnt cover. I love that aflac duck. Aflac get to know us at aflac. Com one of the countrys largest private fitness chains, lifetime has reopened more than 120 gyms across the country with just 25 fully closed nationwide despite the surges of covid19 cases especially in the southern cases. The ceo joins us now its great to have you thanks for being with us thank you so much thanks for having me so i think the last time you were on the show with us was back in late april one of the things you said is we need to use data, not fear to make decisions gi given the fact that the majority of your clubs are online in quite a number of states, nrkdinrk including where theres an up tick of cases. What are you seeing in terms of consumer reaction and people retaining their memberships and coming back to the clubs as i mentioned to you last time, we asked our members with a video to see what they wanted to do. Between 60 and 90 of our members depending on the markets average about 75 said theyre ready to come right back in right now. About another 20 of that basically said not just now. We want to come back later so we not only have worked with the government in every state, we developed a 400 page manual, how to reopen safely we have shared that with all the Government Agencies in every state. They have used those as well for other people as an example on how to do things safely. But our remembersare thrilled to be back as i was talking to a bunch of members a couple days ago, they were clearly saying that look, this is not just physical health but also their Mental Health, social well being. They feel like they need to do this i think if this question was asked from the general public in the u. S. , i think overwhelmingly we would get the answer that people, people believe this is an essential business for them, not an arbitrarily shutdown business again, all of our focus is to take care of our communities, our members, and its because of that that lifetime at despite how ward and how challenging this has been, we adapted our app to make it free and available to all people, not just the members, but also nonmembers, you can take the best classes, the spin classes, yoga, anything, completely free of charge. No advertisement no gimmicks. You can go to lifetime app, load it and get all that stuff. Does that mean in states like arizona and california where officials seem to be on a local own state level contemplating what reopening or the move forward in terms of reopening looks like, would you consider closing those clubs or are you hanging tight with your 400page manual and youre keeping them open unless instructed otherwise . Well work with the government every which way we can. Life brings challenges when there are challenges, you just suck it up. Embrace the suck, deal with it you work through the challenges and come back on top we were making 50 million of ebita per month before we shut down we lost approximately 50 million ebita. Even if the clubs are open, we anticipate probably by august we can actually get back to positive and bring our people back to work and allow our members to get back and do what they love to do. Your point about working out and the Mental Health aspect is a good one because people got to exercise or theyre going to lose their minds, but i wonder if you worry about every passing day where someone is getting delivery of home exercise equipment or free weights, or a bench or a pel ton, and over time, whether or not the Business Model sees a slow degradation, maybe not a dramatic decline i think its possible as i talk to members, while they have been doing things at home, they are even more determined now its more clear to them while the workout is something they have to do when they dont have an option, they are aching for the opportunity to go to the clubs and join their communities and work in that group you know, its like music. You know, you can listen to any song for free. In some app or something, but you still pay a large amount of money for Live Entertainment so i think there is a confusion between this moment in time in my belief is that eventually everything virtual will be practically free, because Many Companies like us will choose to offer things free of charge so people can have access to exercise, nutrition, good information at will without having to be bothered by advertising or having to pay a fee for it while theyre doing it at home whats the protocol if some of your employees come down with the virus and or any of your guests yeah. Thats a great the dhs, th private carriers had to provide this data. You were finding the contraband. And it it needs to be improved or whether or not you think it is effective, they are coming entirely through the mail at this point the staffs, and the work, the cdc, it is a Great Partnership we have been working together for a very long time i mentioned a couple of times of the operation that we have done and we have went out to the corporate world, and a statement out there saying and we need some innovative ideas at hoe we can detect drugs in the mail and in the environment were trying to continue to do th that we saw a dramatic increase coming from china. Unfortunately theyre just shipping now directly to mexico and it is coming across the land border zl zlen. Let us know where we can be helpful. I think the thing that we can be the most helpful right now is the prevention and treatment side huge profits like you talked about earlier. I think now were back up again. We are getting back to our higher level and we have to do a good job to help you reduce that demand otherwise you have an impossible job, very much the same we were talking about the importance of the e verify system. The magnet of jobs, on e verify, quickly, our big issue has been the identifier so e verify, i agree with romney on that, but the issue is that they accepted the social card and the license that was issued in my state and they seem valid but it is fraudulent what are music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. We have a special guest on a special santelli exchange. I would like to welcome the former fdic chair. Thank you for joining me today the day were going to learn stress test results but before that occ just approved two new rules. There is a lot going on in the Banking Industry real quickly, they are going to be allowed to invest in more risky ventures like Venture Capital funds and mar john requirements. It will be ul ters so they can save money i think they are significantly in the direction of deregulation. That is the path that we have been on for several years now. I think jexally it is the wrong way and were paying for it now in terms of the larger capacity these are ill advised. The money that will no longer be in banks, their affiliates are imposing on them it is no longer there and i think that increases risk this, as i understand it, the rule change defers to banks to decide what is proprietary or not we were letting banks decide how much capital they had. So been there and done that in a different context. It is disappointing, but im getting used to what it is i respect all of them, but i think they are directionally still going the wrong way on all of this. So you think if we were tough on the banks in the last six months as we were the six months after the credit crisis that this would have turned out better it seems like it has not been an issue thus far no, that is not what i meant at all banks have been able to pay out more in disz try bugss, their levels have been going down. The fed did not have a capital buffer that there is a lot of good reasons to do that and were seeing them now. When you get into economic turmoil,backs need to expand their Balance Sheets that is bhands for products. So you can go down without compromising integrity so now we are giving them a lot of relief. At the same time were allowing them to distribute capital, and when it should be retained on bank blast sheets so it can be loaned out to the reel economy our banks are they voluntarily stopping the buy backs and youre still pushing back that they should be be paid out in this point in the cycle . Yeah, they are reducing Capital Requirements right now the stress tests, they lowered the standards. We reduced it by about 100 billion. So they are rapidly reducing the minimums a better way to expand Balance Sheet capacity is to retain capital. When you get into a crisis banks need to expanse Balance Sheets no doubt about it. One is to let them take on more leverage, but if you give them more leverage they can expand. Or you can require they retain capital. That sporupports additional capacity as well they paid out dividends to their holding companies. That would have freed up about 100 principal to take those deposits in and support government securities operations most of it is being paid out to shareholders, and that, you know, that makes them less resilient. So they want to reduce Capital Requirements, reduce capital to expand capacity which makes banks more fragile i think a combination of both would be the right approach. But they have voluntarily done it they agreed at least this quarter. I think that was kind of a no brainer. How many expresswcompanies have that were on a hard break, so we have to leave it there, i cant wait to see the results of the stress test, well see if they will put a pault to give dands or not back to you. Great segment in advance of this afternoon were coming to you live from various locations as the s p is down a couple points after a whip saw action in the first hour and a half. Were going to start with disney this morning, postponing their reopening of disney land possibly