Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240712

Tenyear 91 basis points one more way in which the economy in this case has confounded some and the markets had it right yeah. There wasnt a day that we came in and we heard from very big people, rich people, Hedge Fund Managers saying this is ridiculous its fanciful, that the rally itself was uninformed. I admit, look, there were parts of me that said are you kidding me, every morning the airlines will be up big when very few people are flying . It turns out that the hiring took place in the areas that we felt were most devastated. Retail, travel, leisure. And its remarkable because when youre looking for 20 and you have all your scripts all set to talk about the beginning of the next great depression, and then you get the actual numbers, it kind of knocks your socks off. You struggle to think why did we hear so much woe is me the other side says we heard it because 13 is still unfathomable, but its certainly more fathomable than 20 so, i dont know its good. It is good. The president right now is tweeting as we speak its a stupendous number its joyous. Lets call it like it is the market was right its stunning, tagging you, jim. Adds it is a stunner by any stretch of the imagination now some will look at the nasdaq futures today and suggest are the stayathome stocks going to get dinged here, but whats important to focus on . For day after day we have seen the Airline Stocks go up. And theyre now the government gave these companies money. The government has more wins in all of these it does show you that before we even saw places to go, theme parks, say, retail, people were going. And i think that there must be a perception among the david, this is something you and i talk about a lot. This is not my perception. This is the perception, that covid19 is behind us. Thats a dangerous perception, but it must be the perception. Well, and during the course of the most difficult times, it appears that we were going through economically we made the point that while we were in the center of the pandemic, many parts of the country were not feeling the same way so it would appear that when they did reopen, the demand was there in a way that perhaps we had not anticipated or some had not fully anticipated. You know, we made the point, 21,000 new cases yesterday it continues its just not part of the conversation anymore for some reason, as you see the president , of course, tweeting about it being a stunner by any stretch of the imagination i think quoting what carl said at the top of at the top of our program. But, its sort of a background conversation about the pandemic now. Weve been dealing with social unrest for the last week in the country as well. I do wonder, we spoke to a lot of Business Owners jim, you said the same about wanting to hire people back but the bonus unemployment money was keeping people from wanting their jobs back. I guess that may not have been as true as we thought . Or ppp worked there were more than 4 million businesses that took it. I think, again david, you hit on something theres a region that were in, and our region is hobbled tremendously both by the number of deaths we had and the number of cases and also by government that seems determined to make it so nonessential cannot survive. Slow opening the rest of the country did not react to the pandemic in the same way and i begin to think when frank del rio comes on from norwegian cruise and he says you dont understand, the bookings are big for next year, its a firm and optimistic view that the American People had maybe well ahead of wall street about what can happen here. I think about the twin ray dalio and bill ackman period and the idea of closing america or that america might be finished. Its its off the table now the question is whether its a vsv or a u. If you say its a u you might be left behind by the stock market itself. Its already well ahead of where we thought it was going to be. I wrote a script for what i was going to ask Vice President pence, i ripped it up. I worked on it all night what the heck was i thinking i should have watched the nba. We have that press conference now. Listen, you have been talking a couple weeks more positively about the market which has been leading the sense of the economic recovery and many people have been questioning it. And continue to, by the way, given today we may be inching closer and closer to being flat on the year for the s p. It seems virtually impossible not that many weeks ago. We watched the banks turn around in a dramatic way. That seems to be continuing today. The airlines have been another feature, jim i mean, so the market knew that we were going to have a v or we may not i come back to the conversations i have time and again with the companies having a harder time but theyre not talking about hiring people. Theyre talking about making furloughs permanent. So i do wonder steve sedgwli referred to this earlier, the idea of a second wave, that comes into mind for people who question the valuation of the market at the current point and the earnings of the companies as well i spoke to several ceos in the travel and Airline Business yesterday, they say people want to travel. I spoke to a highlevel ceo at a Major Aerospace company, people want to travel i mean t would just be incredible lets say that the faa gave the high sign for the 737 max. Does boeing go to 300 . Yes. Because if people want to shop and people want to fly and theyre going to get that opportunity as we open, it will take only a second wave of the pandemic that can slow this thing down it goes the other way and people start hearing it and ceos start hearing it and executives hear it saying you know what . Unless my business is being shut down by the State Government or the City Government i better get on the case because theres a lot of pentup demand. Thats what im seeing watch ford motor we know the cdc yesterday said basically no more carpool, we know we dont want to use public transit, we believe thats where the covid was concentrated on in new york and philadelphia. The next thing you know, you see an auto rally. Its all happening too fast. I think the stunning thing was, so many people think we had to retest the bottom. Those are the people who have to come in. If you watch the crawl, so to speak, since 5 00 this morning, southwest air, united, just buy, buy. America, buy, buy, buy now secretary mnuchin should be cashing in but the market got it right. And the Big Hedge Fund guys who told us this was going to be the highest and worst and most dangerous since 1999, they made an illadvised prediction. Yeah. One lesson here is that because of the reopening success, you could call it, if we do see spikes in new cases, i mean, it is going to be virtually impossible to implement a second round of stayathome, shelter in place lockdown restrictions i think everybody agrees with that you have an index of covid names, would you be shorting that index cant short it because a lot of those names represent tremendous innovations by tech to do the work at home i think that will stay part of the equation yesterday smucker reported a number i like this, its pbj. The most basic thing they were, i felt, downbeat about the future i understand why they would do that people want to go out. The question is will there be in a second wave a recognition that the hospitals, that the doctors have solved so many cases other than the elderly who maybe just were not going out during this period but you know what . Its not a death sentence anymore. We found out it wasnt a lung disease. We found out it was a circular disease. It wasnt something you put ventilators on there were certain ways to handle it. Were about to have a monoclonal study in the next five days at regeneron. Theres 2 billion doses for the oxford vaccine i think science caught up and passed the government. The government until dr. Fauci said maybe it wont be a fall redux, whats happened is the doctors and hospitals figured out things they caught up with it im not as concerned about a fall 1918like resurgence as i am a recognition that the Small Businesses need to be able to come back because the government must let them come back. Enough with the nonessential designation. Enough with that enough with making costco and walmart the only stores left open lets open the rest of the country. People want to shop and go somewhere. Let them do it jim, we have a big hour in just the next few moments well talk to the Vice President , mike pence, about the jobs number, china and a whole host of other issues well hear from the president himself in a News Conference at the top of the hour. If youre just waking up and joining us, the jobs number for may, 2. 5 million jobs added in what is a stunning bit of economic data. Were back in a minute jobs number this morning suggests a big pivot for the economy and rates, we theyll you that, too. Lets get to Rick Santelli rates going up, stocks going up and data Getting Better thats a trifecta of strength. However when youre carrying record amounts of debt domestically and globally and adding more potentially, maybe services the debt is an issue. Were not quite there yet. Look at an intraday of tens, up 75 basis points. No matter what maturity youre looking at, no matter what part of the world youre looking at, when the coronavirus first hit, the markets had their biggest moves. In the fixed income sovereign space, that was midmarch. All the charts started midmarch. When is the last time we closed here midmarch. 30year bond, it traded as high today as 175 it traded up closer to 180 at the other point in time. If we break there, that will be wave two, chapter two of a breakout if we take out the midmarch extremes what is this doing to the yield curve . You can get pretty much permanent ink and draw your chart for twoyear note yields certainly they move a bit from 16 to 19 basis points. In the grand scream theyll be like the fed overnight rates will stay low for long, long, long tens to twos blows out a bit right now its trading at a level around 70 basis points should it close here, it would be the best close since february of 2018. It could break out further finally, lets look overseas when it comes to correlations on the sovereigns, everybody is correlating here, so many issues if our economy does better faster and reopens slowly but surely and continues to have rate of change improvement, i would think that investors would take that logic into other markets like europe and they have freshly sprinkled stimulus. So look for their markets to get explosive and bund yields shot up just missed minus 25 basis points they have not closed there since the 25th of march. Midmarch extremes give you all the answers you need for the next breakout points back to you. Thank you for that. We wont take our eyes off the ongoing discussion about racial and income equality in the country. Speaker pelosi talked about that topic with jim last night on mad money. We can talk about what happened, when and what, all that but theres been something very a pattern of bad behavior in terms of how people are treated unfairly in our country. But lets make this take this moment to be an inflection point, a pivotal one that we are going to not just proceed incrementally, but in a very strong way to do things differently. Just a moment ago, nike, 40 million commitment over the next four years to support the black community. I am so impressed with doug mcmillan, the business roundtable, nike not saying our hearts and prayers go out to this or that family i dont mean just this family, theres several instances of terrible racial killing. And this is not that time. This is a time when business feels we have to roll up our sleeves and change things. That is very different from what weve seen during a period where we race riots in the 60s. You have to respect the fact that business feels they have to do more than wait for the government its almost as if business wants to lead the government when you think about someone who is the head of walmart coming on and speaking to eloquently or arnie sorensen, doug parker, really incredible heartfelt thoughts, theyre not about, okay, heres how i feel, i feel badly. Lets get to the numbers theyre not getting to the numbers. Theyre trying to figure out how to solve the problem, david. Right understood its a good point. Lets hope its more than press releases or money that is allocated towards this but actual action and ek kugs on that vision. You know, maybe we can follow up on these things in a number of months or years and see how it all workedout and see whether the companies did follow through. Yeah. Were seeing dollar signs, thats for sure. Quick break here well take a moment to look at futures. Well talk to the Vice President in a minute. S p looks to open up about 60 handles as the average s p stock is almost 34 above its threemonth low. A grandfather of 14. A newlywed. A guy who just got into college. Thats why behind these masks, Johnson Johnson scientists are working to accelerate development of a covid19 vaccine, drawing on decades of experience responding to Public Health emergencies like ebola and hiv. For the life behind every mask, the clock never stops and neither do we. Welcome back time for a mad dash. Its been a while since i said hot ten. Broadcom reported, they take on so much debt. They made so many acquisitions they did the cea acquisition, some thought it was an acquisition too far. They talked about really off the chart demand for data. And when people are trying to figure out, okay, where does tech fit in in this moment, maybe you go for the raw data plays. Is this as pertinent as buying an Airline Stock orb a crui a c stock . No and carl asked do you short a covid index . I think broadcom is levered enough, but they said a major client had a push out to build things that client is apple keep track of the fact that apple, while its numbers we know Revenues Service stream doing quite well had a second note today, apple looks like it will be later if you read the tea leaves of broadcom look, when we look at a oneyear, its an actual v a literal v on the screen. The low was where were we 180. Something like that. Back during the height of the market selloff these are checkmarks. Almost like checkmarks david, when you look at the bottom to where we were, since march, it was apple that led us up microsoft is responsible for 10 . Maybe they take a breather and we let the bottom of the pack lead us because these numbers are so good. Yeah. Thats a point we made a lot of times in the s p apple, alphabet, amazon, microsoft, 5 trillion in market cap there. Well keep a close eye on those, on the overall market as well. Dont forget, Vice President of the United States, mike pence will be our guest after this we hope you find these Digital Solutions helpful to bank from almost anywhere. Deposit a check with your phone or tablet. Check balances, pay bills, and more. Send money to people you know and trust with zelle. Explore all you can do with our Digital Tools from almost anywhere. Pnc bank. Welcome back our discussion continues about the jobs number for may at 2. 5 million. Jim, of all the things working, you can pile on top of that an opec plus meeting tomorrow where i dont know, whats the calculus now on production cuts . Brian sullivan had covered it excellently at 5 00 a. M. , talking about the cohesion among opec we had not seen that in a long time all i know is this means the permian is back. At these prices, even some of the worst Oil Companies can make money, which means all those oil loans we were so worried about, makes that one more thing that perhaps we were too worried about. If you looked at wells fargo and the oils and chauthought charli scharf may have trouble with it, at these prices he wont yeah. Theres been a whole school of thought, fundstrats tom lees been one of them, he says you have to keep piling into the epicenter stocks at the center of social distancing, airlines, cruise lines, travel and energy. Does that playbook live . The playbook does live in the sense that if you look at a norwegian cruise i pick on that because they had the fewest covid when you look at the cdc numbers. So therefore it was the best shouldnt it get back to half of what it was . They did take down a lot of debt but they can pay it back i think that when you look at southwest air, they can it really get back to where it was . The animal spirits might because this Airline Group has been so heavily shorted. But these companies all raised a lot of money the only thing that can momentarily stop them, i think i can ask Vice President pence this, the treasury took a big stake in almost in alaska, american, delta, southwest, jetblue. Maybe the treasury rings the register, why fool around . Why not just take the money off the table . Gary kelly, i keep thinking what he said to us. There was no place to go, there was no traffic suddenly there is a place to go, but will Business Travel pick up now that weve done this stay at home and remarkable business i dont know if they can get back to where they were, but they should get back to close to half of where they were. Thats a great point. We talked about vegas yesterday. Today its universal orlando opening in florida but the Airline Executives have been quite clear, corporate travel, especially Corporate International travel will be a much tougher fix yeah. Look, we still we have to quarantine ourselves if we go from overseas. You have to have a twoweek self quarantine theres going to be pressure on the regulations and on the doctors that are involved with it at the cdc or advising the president. Masks and social distancing seem to have worked so lets reopen the economy, maybe we dont need to have people quarantine that long. That would help the Big International routes that matter there is an incredible thing that happened here that i have not seen before. The premarket trading of these stocks, of the airlines and the cruises, is really, really heavy. Its actual volume its not tape painting as we used to say. People want in the stocks because they recognize if a lot of stuff is open, people will travel again American Airlines press release yesterday said basically people want to travel, well add a lot of routes. If they add routes, they make more money they have to hire back people furloughed so i think this trade can continue if only just because these stocks were so far below where they should have gotten if you could open up universal and disne disney yeah. Well talk about what jay powell says next, what congress does next on further stimulus and so forth. Theres the bell at the nyse, an ipo, shift four payments, a provider of payments and money transfers, at the nasdaq, data nexus well get to china with the Vice President in a moment, a day after pompeo says that the nasdaqs listing rules should serve as a model for chinese names. Yeah. This is the time when i think that the Vice President has been the leader in the administration of trying to figure out along with peter navarro, trying to figure out how to handle and contain china. And i think that the the Brokerage Firms have been meen mercenaries. Theres two deals in the hopper. I think that you should expect to get blow back from the government these deals dont need to be done and the financials i see lucken trading up big. I dont know what theyre worth given theres fraud. There are a lot of people through newer forms of trading and newer places like robinhood that are what we used to call gunning lucken, and theyre gunning hertz. I know lucken resonates in terms of trying to figure out what a Chinese Company is worth the fraud there was extraordinary. The pressure some of us got from the bankers was extraordinary. I was jimmy chill, i just said shut up. Speaking of banks, today its about comerica its about zion. Its about lincoln national, a lot of swirling around today the ones that were occidental could make money here no one is making money at minus 37 but there were levels where you could make money if you were a couple of well established Oil Companies, and then a couple that had bad balance sheets, at this level they can make money rather incredible. They made it back. The companies that were if you thought the economy was going to slow down, the stocks would be annihilated i know meg tirrell has regeneron on today about their human trials, that stock cant get out of its own way thats a recession stock yeah. Weve got someone who i think has his pulse on the situation now. Dow up 700 points. Joining us exclusively is Vice President mike pence mr. Vice president , thank you so much for coming on squawk on the street. You bet great to be with all of you. And its a great day for america. Lets talk about that its a remarkable number theres no doubt about it. We were looking for maybe as much as 20 unemployed we got 13 nice growth. We have to ask is the worst over and do you need to do more than youve already done well, i really believe that todays extraordinary economic news, where we saw unemployment decline to 13. 3 , we saw 2. 5 million jobs added, its a tribute to President Trumps leadership throughout this pandemic, but long before. Remember, under this president s policy of less taxes, less regulation, free and fair trade, unleashing american energy, we created more than 7 million jobs but the president s Decisive Action from january forward where we suspended all travel from china, the mitigation efforts to put the health of the American People first, more than 3 trillion provided for families and Small Businesses to see us through this pandemic and the recovery efforts, then ultimately the president s guidelines to states across the country to reopen their economies is all working were seeing it. Its remarkable to think this jobs report today is from a survey in midmay when roughly 50 of Small Businesses around america were starting to reopen. The u. S. Chamber did a survey where they think 80 are reopening. All of our discussions with governors, our focus in the month of may at the Coronavirus Task force has been to safely reopen america and this jobs report today shows you the American People are stepping up, standing on that Strong Foundation that President Trump laid, the strong resilient economy, the resilience of the American People, and this recovery begins today. Well, mr. Vice president , if thats the case, do you need to coalesce with the democrats who would like to have a 3 trillio plan we know that the bountiful versus what it was unemployment claim number with additional 600 expires at the end of july. Is it okay to let that expire . Do you need to have talks with the democrats . Do you need to do something about minority aid packages to cities because of what happened not so long ago, the tragedy in minneapolis . Are these on the table or do we just let it run . Well, look, those discussions are ongoing. Were going to work in good faith to put the interest of the American Families and american businesses first but whats absolutely essential about any additional recovery package is that we have the kind of pro growth policies that President Trump has been advancing. Well be there for families to see them through the president said early on im sure hell reiterate in a few moments today he said well do whatever it takes to get the American People through this pandemic. Weve done that. Well continue to do that for families and Small Businesses, particularly businesses that have been severely impacted in our inner cities including businesses subject to riots a i and looting in recent days what has to be there, this president believes, we have got to have the payroll tax cut, the pro growth policies that will continue this economic recovery. The only thing that could slow this economic recovery is if joe biden and the democrats won the election this november and brought about their higher taxes, their war on coal, the Green New Deal and all the policies that President Trump has been pushing back on and that is the choice the American People will face in november but today what you see is the strength of the American People who have heeded this president s guidance we put the health of the country first, the mitigation efforts worked our recovery and relief plans worked the president s guidelines to states across the country to reopen america are working now all 50 states are reopening their economy. You see the evidence of that in these numbers today. All right i understand the political aspect but i want to stick again with opening america and what it means for jobs thats fundamental but this may be the chance, mr. Vice president , you gave a towering speech in front of the hudson institute, october 4, 2018 i know i was concerned our economy might be tweaked to be able to do this. You said i come before you today because the American People deserve to know that as we speak beijing is employing a whole government approach using political, economic and military tools as well as propaganda to influence the United States. If you were doing that speech now, would you include the term biological what i said in 2018, the speech that i spoke on behalf of the Administration Simply articulated President Trumps leadership from the beginning. Jim, you talked about this many times. No president in my lifetime has done more to rebalance our trading relationship and to stand up to chinas abuses than President Trump. You have seen that action in recent days. When you look at chinas conduct in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, it just reaffirms the strong stand that President Trump took from very early on in this administration relative to china. Now that we see china, you know, extending its authority, violating its International Agreement relative to hong kong, again, its an affirmation what china did in keeping from the world the information that america and every nation on earth needed to deal with the coronavirus pandemic was it was a travesty the fact that china suspended travel within china but allowed people to continue to leave the wuhan area to travel to the United States and around the world. But i have to tell you, before there was a single domestic case of Community Transmission in the United States, the American People can take great comfort in the fact that in late january President Trump suspended all travel from china. And i can tell you, having been leading the Coronavirus Task force now over the last three months, that act alone bought us an invaluable amount of time to stand up a whole of america response that unquestionably, because of the cooperation of the American People, because of the leadership and state and local leaders, Incredible Health care workers and the leadership of President Trump, we slowed the spread, we flattened the curve, we saved lives. Now Going Forward well continue to hold china accountable for the what they did and what they failed to do to give the world the information that we all needed and deserved. Mr. Vice president , not to get too wonky, but money supply in this country is up 80 annualized in the last three months as we were trying to respond to the pandemic. If the recovery does begin today, and i know theres conflicting views about the correlation, are you worried about inflation . Is the white house on guard for inflation . We always we are always mindful of inflation but i must tell you, one of the numbers that our Economic Team presented to the president and me earlier this week is that savings are up across the country. And make no mistake about it the president s priority from early on in this process was first the health of the American People its why we asked the American People in the middle of march to do extraordinary things, to embrace the guidelines for america, the mitigation, the social distancing, but the second thing was the president wanted to make sure that the American People starting with families had the direct support necessary to make their way through this time that fell upon our nation and i want to tell you that the numbers that are coming out today, what were hearing in states across the country as americans are returning to work, i think its a real testament to the decisions that the president made, the bipartisan support that we had for those relief efforts on capitol hill, and thats where well stay focused in the days ahead. Making sure the American People, american businesses large and small are able to fully recover and then some. But i i do want to tell you that were going to do what needs to be done to bring this economy all the way back what we believe the real threat to the economic recovery Going Forward or the policies of joe biden, the policies of democrats in congress, already advocating raising taxes, increasing regulation, Green New Deal, restarting the war on coal, all the opposite direction that laid that solid Foundation President trump laid that created moor th more than 7 million jobs thats the foundation you see in evidence today the strength of the American People, the fundamental strengths of this economy. Thats the path that well keep this nation on for the rest of this year and for four more year years. Mr. Vice president , its david faber. The market may have decided that war on coal already, but my question is more to the growing potential disparity between rich and poor in the country. When your administration came into power you were focused on it may have been one of the reasons why donald trump was elected you passed a tax cut that you said would potentially address it unclear if that was the case then the pandemic hit. It does seem, as we come out of this pandemic that one of the effects is going to be to widen the disparity between rich and poor in this country what policies will you put in place to potentially address that in addition to the social unrest were seeing now which in part may also be a reflection of that well, its what i would want to do respectfully is take issue with the premise of your question when the president cut taxes across the board, when we rolled back regulation, unleashed american energy, we saw unemployment crdrop across this country. We saw wages rise across this country. We just came through a period where we had the lowest unemployment ever recorded for africanamericans. The lowest unemployment ever recorded for hispanic americans. When i was the governor of the state of indiana, we were always pushing on how we can increase wages. That was, as you all know on this network, that was the stubborn indicator, but under the president s leadership and the policies of the last three years, we saw wages rising and they were rising most rapidly for hard working, blue collar americans. So we were closing the gap with the policies that President Trump put into effect. And i want to assure you that if theres another phase of recovery efforts, well make sure we have more pro growth policies in addition to direct relief for families and businesses as we put this coronavirus more and more in the past every day but the contrast between the policies this president enacted over the last 3 1 2 years and what joe biden and the democrats are advocating could not be more clear. It was the president s policies, expanding opportunity that were seeing wages rise, that were closing that income gap, unemployment at record lows, particularly for minorities, and thats the message well take to the American People come november 3rd right many of those same populations are on the front lines in terms of the pandemic and make up the municipal work forces around the country, mr. Vice president. We had a parade of governors and mayors join us on cnbc over the last few months. Both blue states and red states. Many of them are concerned, given the significant decrease in revenues theyre seeing as a result of the pandemic and the shutdown what, if anything, is the administration willing to do to help those states that potential potentiali will haly will have their municipal work forces . There is greater flexibility in the initial funding so that it can support payroll for firefighters, police and First Responders make no mistake about it, the president expressed a strong openness to another relief bill. We are speaking to governors we had our latest Conference Call with governors across the country the last week. I have to tell you, since the day the president tapped me to lead the white house Coronavirus Task force, he told me it was to be a whole of government approach, but that meant bringing together all of the governors, all of the State Governments around the country with the full resources of the federal government thats really been a Seamless Partnership every step of the way. Through the mitigation period, through the relief programs. But also remember it was april 15th, a month before todays survey was taken, that the president directed our team to send to the states guidelines to open up america again. So states could be ready in early may to begin to put those guidelines into practice i think the results that youre seeing today are the fact that in states across the country, now in all 50 states, are reopening. They took those guidelines, a phased approach, put them into practice but governors around the country know President Trump and i are ready, willing and able to work with them to see them through this time. And those expenses directly related to the coronavirus, we believe they will be appropriately a part of any additional relief effort its guys, im telling you, the president is very firm and very clear on this well help families, well help Small Businesses, were open to helping states with coronavirus related costs. But President Trump believes to keep this recovery growing and moving, weve got to have the pro growth policies that have contributed to the fundamental strength of this economy from the beginning. That includes a payroll tax cut, and well be rolling our sleeves up and going to work with democrats and republicans in the congress to accomplish just that mr. Vice president , i know you are a historian, so you might be remembering that 52 years ago, Bobby Kennedy was in indianapolis, your homestate, on the unfortunate moment when we learned about dr. King and he talked about he talked about the idea that out of despair, drop by drop upon the heart against our will comes wisdom to the awful grace of god. Protesters, what do we tell them do we answer them with what Bobby Kennedy did in honor of dr. King do we Say Something and do something to meet the 150 cities where we have protesters some violent, i know, i dont regard them as protesters, im talking about good people who you and i both know are in the spirit of dr. King what do we say to them jim, thank you for remembering that indianapolis was the place of Bobby Kennedys historic speech occurred that was an important moment in the life of the nation and i must tell you that President Trump and i have been clear. The death of george floyd was a tragedy. It is also it has been heartrending for all of us to watch that video and the president and i are committed, the Justice Department is committed to ensure that justice is served. And we stand with our Peaceful Protesters were listening. But there will be no tolerance for rioting, looting and violence against individuals or Law Enforcement officers thats the reason why the president took the strong action that he took, and we are encouraged to see that in recent days these protests have remained largely peaceful and we trust that we will continue to see that effort. Since the president called on governors to use their National Guard, we went from 17,000 National Guard deployed in states across the country to more than 32,000 as of yesterday. So were providing providing foe security of our communities, of our businesses and of Peaceful Protesters, and well continue to do that. But finally, were also going to listen were going to pray to have ears to hear and to have open hearts. I met yesterday with African American leaders here at the white house. Ill be traveling to a nearby church today, and we really do believe that this is a moment in which we can as a nation focus on the challenges that our African American countrymen are facing, and this president , im proud to say, enacted policies saw the lowest unemployment late ever recorded for African Americans. We passed opportunity zones that have seen 100 billion of Capital Investment focussed on our inner cities hes been a champion of Education Choice to give families the right to choose where their children go to school and passed criminal reform those are all things this president has passed to lead for every american and to see the prosperity of every american, including our brothers and sisters in the African American community. But were going to listen. Were going to have open hearts and look for more policies because as the president said, the night of his election, his determination is to be president for all of the American People, and now as we see the first chutes, the first strong signs of an economic recovery, following the coronavirus pandemic, i promise you this president and our entire team are going to continue to work for the prosperity and well being of every american, regardless of race or creed or color. Mr. Vice president , thank you for joining us on squawk on the street. Thank you okay. Carl, back to you. All right. Jim, thanks for that the president is going to hold a press conference in a few moments about the jobs numbers in the meantime, dow 27k First Time Since march 4th nearly every component is green and the s p within 1. 5 within going positive for the year. When we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. I remember setting up shipstation. One or two clicks and everything was up and running. I was printing out labels and saving money. Shipstation saves us so much time. It makes it really easy and seamless. Pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and its ready to go. Our costs for shipping were cut in half. Just like that. Shipstation. The 1 choice of online sellers. Go to shipstation. Com tv and get 2 months free. Its remarkable to think the jobs report today was from a survey in mid may when roughly 50 of Small Businesses around america were starting to reopen. The u. S. Chamber did a survey where they think 80 are reopening. Our focus in the month of may at the Coronavirus Task force has been to safely reopen america and this jobs report today shows you the American People are stepping up, standing on that Strong Foundation that President Trump laid the strong resilient economy, the resilience of the American People, and this recovery begins today. Thats the Vice President with us a few moments ago. Jim said he believes the jobs data indicates the recovery begins today mentioned a payroll tax and ongoing discussions about further Coronavirus Relief i think our questions about the protesters, what can be done for minorities, these are questions that have to be answered given the fact that things, the recovery started not today but actually several weeks ago. What an excellent time to come from strength to solve these issues in the way that the business round table wants to. They have to be front and center its always important to focus on the pandemic. But its also an opportunity as a show of strength for the federal government to be alive with business and business round table in uniting and trying to listen as he said he would to the questions the protesters are putting and try to solve them as best they could. I take that as a belief that maybe there can be a discussion that leads to more than talk which is whats so necessary yep meanwhile, jim and david, looking at some of the indicators this morning. I noticed apple alltime high. That got your attention. Look, this is one of the numbers where people are going to say wait a second there were some smart people who knew it. And theyre going to ring the register so there will be some profit taking there will be some people who say why do i need the stocks of faang . Theyre big cap stocks and do well when money comes into the s p. The Money Managers who listen to the druggckenmillers are not gon to say i need shop by. Theyre going to throw money at the s p. Thats throwing money at faang plus microsoft dont forget as much as you may think those stocks are overplayed, they are the ones that do well when money comes to the s p. The other ones that people buy are retailers thought to be left for dead that turned out to be hiring based on the initial findings of the last two weeks since america started reopening. David yeah. Im here, jim. Sorry. Trying to keep track of a couple things we typically would follow the rally up 2 . Were at 3176 in the s p the nasdaq is into positive territory, up almost 9 now. Is there any sort of change in your approach in terms of how you weight certain things in this market . Do you start to look for more of the value names . I think the answer is yes i have not looked at auto for some time. When i see the cdc say no car pooling and when know the pandemic seems to be centered on public transit, then i have to tell you, people are going to buy cars if people are going to buy cars, can you buy ford absolutely can you guy gm absolutely can you buy the companies that make the parts that go into autos . Yes. I think that will be the next one. Thats the next wave people are going to be looking for auto plays they have been left for dead the left for dead trade is still on at the same time, i think were going to look for technology that does well when the economy does well. Not Just Technology that does well when the economy does poorly you know, mark cuban tweeting a moment ago saying the jobs number is great, he says the great unknown is how many of the jobs that were subsidized by ppp will return after that money runs out thats still a question mark social distancing makes sports very difficult and mark knows that better than anybody i believe that mass i know mark is not a pro mask guy i think mask design can make it so maybe we can cut some of the social distancing. I know social distancing is incredibly important, but sports are a big part of the country. Going out is a big part of the country. Weve not solved that yet, and we have to worry about that. I think we also have to get america open theres lots of the country where the phases are going slowly masks, social distancing do work particularly if everyone wears a mask but restaurants, 13 Million People still a ka none dumconun. You still have to take half the tables out and mark cuban is dead right as always jim j have a good weekend thank you, im going fishing and doing gardening. I was supposed to not work today. Some days if you take off work, ill advised. Jimmy chill no longer says hes a stupid chowder head if he missed today im a changed man. Jim, well see you later on jim cramer joining us for an important hour on an important day. Welcome to squawk on the street. The jobs number is the story of the morning. 2. 5 million jobs added in may its a shocker of economic data. Dow returns to 27k for the First Time Since early march the president expected to hold a press conference in a few moments. Good morning. Not clear if the president is going to take questions in the rose garden. Ive been asking white house officials whether hes going to do that or not they say thats up to him. Well have to wait and see clearly the president jumping on the good jobs report and scheduling a snap press conference in the rose garden to take credit for it look, this is a jobs report that is incredibly good news politically for this administration theyre facing a reelect through a tough summer in a very tough series of circumstances for any white house. You had an impeachment this year you had a global pandemic. You had an economic collapse now you have riots, racial tensions and protests in the streets of america all of that just incredibly tough political news for this administration, and now a glimmer here that there might be a rebound through the late part of the summer and into the fall as they are campaigning for reelection this president will want to come out and take as much credit for this as he can and position for that ebound. And to take credit all the way to the fall and up to his reelection, and to me, if you look at this, it seems like this is one of the spaces the numbers we saw today gives an indication the rocket launch and the federal government response eamon, were losing you your audio is breaking up. We got the message and are waiting for the president. Well take you there live as soon as it happens on jobs lets talk more about the record jobs number. 2. 5 million jobs added to the u. S. Economy that was a lot more than expected Vice President pence spoke with us on the issue moments ago. Take a listen. Its remarkable to think the jobs report today was from a survey in mid may when roughly 50 of Small Businesses around america were starting to reopen. The u. S. Chamber did a survey where they think 80 are reopening. In all the discussions with governo governors, our focus in the month of may at the Coronavirus Task force has been to safely reopen america, and this jobs report today shows you the American People are stepping up, standing on the Strong Foundation that President Trump laid the strong resilient economy, the resilience of the American People, and this recovery begins today. Joining us david kelly and diane swonk on the economy economists were looking for down 7. 5 million jobs on the month. Thats a big miss. How did that happen . Its stunning part of it is the bls playing catchup with the birth and death rates estimates for Small Businesses we saw the losses in april now at one point in march, at 1. 4 million, double what the initial reported for march before a state shut down there were some revisions to the month of april as well we welcome this rehiring it really was workers coming off of temporary back into jobs and rehired over half the increases were in Food Services as restaurants attempted to reopen for the memorial Day Celebrations what we do worry about is that weve seen an uptick in hospitalizations and covid cases since the celebrations took root. And we worry about how much the ppp loans can be modified so that these restaurants and these Small Businesses can stay open we also saw an increase in health care hiring, but the sector itself is still down significantly with many furloughs and layoffs pending. So as much as were excited about this, we have to take it in the context of were still running an extremely high Unemployment Rate after you account for those workers who said they were absent from work due to covid instead of unemployed even though they werent getting a paycheck its over 16 . So great news to see rehiring and reopening. This is something to be cautious about in terms of recession recovery the post covid19 world we have to be careful how we talk about gains off low levels theyre misleading about how much the economy is actually operating at kpa capacity. Jason furman made the point, and i think its important that jim made the point about restaurants. Restaurants need 75 capacity with peak, crowds. Thursday through saturday to meet their costs and make money at 25 or 50 , they cant cover their overhead, let alone their wait staff much is to be seen the other thing thats important to point out is we continue to lose jobs in the state and local sector this is what happened during the Great Recession and dampened the recovery over as we got into it, the employment recovery. We just cant afford that. We really want state and local governments hiring not firing as were trying to reopen the economy. Well, and that gets to the next point, david, which is if you look at the market reaction, 2 gain for the major averages 25 gain for some of the airlines does it show us the stunning rally now more than 42 off the march lows was more about the reopening than about the stimulus because the initial statake her from most washington watchers and economists is theres not as much urgency when it comes to the next phase of fiscal stimulus or more action from the Federal Reserve . I think well see more stimulus and as long as the Federal Reserve is willing to finance it to monetize the debt, i think thats powerful federal stimulus but i think the markets got ahead of itself. This year its a little bit like you jump off the edge of the grand canyon onto a trampoline the bounce is impressive, but the fall is important. We still have the highest Unemployment Rate since the 1940s. And i dont think this is a vshaped recovery overall. Its a great start good to see the first step the rest is harder the government is going to need to be careful both to control the disease, encourage people to social distance, wear masks and try to stop this from ree americaning and help the companies that can reopen to do so its a long battle in the end this is a back ends recession. It started with a virus and is going to end with a vaccine. We need to be careful as we go through this to continue to build competence among the companies that can reopen to help them stay open here its going to be difficult in the months ahead although, diane, i mean, i forget which fed speaker it was in the recent weeks, maybe cap lan said the shutdown is a card that you can only play once, and to davids point, if you see a spike, youre not going to see ri trixs put in place like in march and the market is counting on that. Well, thats right. Whats interesting is that we lost now 1. 4 million jobs between february 16th and march 14th th. Thats what that survey from march was from its been revised twice. Its doubled the initial estimate for that month and the record and that is really important, because it shows that our behaviors alone triggered that pullback so you dont need formal shutdowns to get people to pull back with a rise in covid cases. As weve seen since the memorial Day Celebrations that they hired up for have taken place, weve also seen a rise in hospitalizations and covid cases and we dont know what the recoil and the recurrence of a surge in covid cases will be from the protests and things weve seen in the wake of the tragic killing of george floyd i think thats really important to keep in mind as well. And i agree with david that this is great we want to see these people rehired. These were temporary workers brought back from temporary layoff and rehired they have to stay hired. Were worried as we go through the summer youll have another wave of white collar layoffs that have yet to hit as we struggle to reopen, and many of these workers who are brought back will be laid off again but with many fewer Unemployment Benefits the it adds to fiscal fatigue its at the wrong moment we want to ensure to get us through this it starts with the infection and spread we saw prior to the shutdowns and ends with a vaccine. Theres a concern vaccine is only three to six movanths in duration we need an uptick in people taking the vaccine more than with the flu this is a more devastating disease on the number of people who are hospitalized that are young and otherwise healthy. Those are a ton of good points about the worries and risks out there and why it doesnt look to be a vshaped economic recovery, and i cant help but think its all those warnings investors were hearing for the last few months from people on our network, from state Hedge Fund Managers and nobody expected how quickly the jobs would come back and todays number proves that with a huge miss against the forecast i think the forecasts are based on things like unemployment claims. Dp you look at adp survey, deep questions will be asked about the numbers. They missed by 5 million and its supposed to be surveying the same thing i think theres issues with the data the reality is the drop wasnt as bad as we thought it was going to be. Thats good news but i think that this is no time to take our foot off the pedal with regard to keeping the disease down, but also i think we will need to get i think the 600 bonus payments for low wage worker who is are unemployed, 60 0 may be too much you need something or its widespread poverty after july. The workers are not going to get back to work in a rush we need more money for state and local governments. Theyll continue to lay people off. Theres more work to be done i think we need to keep our eye on the ball. The market is too complacent we shouldnt be this high given the amount of uncertainty on the economy and the disease. So investors need to be a little bit cautious here. Be diversified, recognize this is not a victory here. Its a first step, a long and very treacherous and difficult road were on here and were going to have to keep our eye on the ball the waves of activity both to the good and the ill in this economy, i wonder if you think theyre overpowering our ability to measure it. Im not suggesting that we should doubt the data this morning. But when revisions come, how dramatic do you think they could be yeah. Well, weve already seen a doubling of the losses in march alone because they are playing catchup with the birth and death rates of Small Businesses and incorporating it into the data thats estimates that they dont have the hard data business formations actually came off an extremely low level, almost standstill in april in the early part of may and into later may. Thats what youre seeing reflected in the data that births of new businesses actually came back and business formation came back a little bit, but its still in an extremely low level. And we dont know what the secondary wave of defaults are going to be as the businesses cant ramp up to the levels they need to be at to sustain the employment coming back and i think thats whats important to keep the focus on were still even with problems in the ability to capture all of these losses relative to say, unemployment claims, some of it is data problems, bls is doing remarkable work and there are weekly surveys of households and grading a sense of Food Insecurity the number of people who cant feed their children in a week is remarkably high. And unbelievably high for such a wealthy economy. I agree with david that we have to be very careful to keep the our eyes on the ball. Particularly with fiscal policy. We cant afford to get fiscal fatigue. Weve blown a huge hole into the u. S. Economy from covid related losses and its great to see this bounce. We embrace it. But if we want to sustain it and really regain the nearly 20 million jobs that weve still seen officially lost since the onset of the crisis, we need a lot more sort of to this marathon, being able to pace ourselves on that Fiscal Relief which i fear now is going to be less than what we need david, why do you think there will be more stimulus. The market is not tanking and the unemployment is not rising takes urgency off. Well, lets look at state and federal governments. We know the losses theyll sustain in state and local sales and income taxes, theyll have to replace the money the people have lost jobs, the poorest people in the country working. Thats why the average wage rate has gone up. So many low paid workers have been laid off. Right now theyre getting generous Unemployment Benefits if it expires in july with no replacement, people will be starving lets be reasonable here this is a time when i think weve got to not play political games. We dont need a bill as big as what we passed so far. We need something to supplement unemployment governments and something to help Small Businesses actually make a profit in the social distancing world. The danger is they reopen and theyre bleeding red ink and letting the ppp loans run out. They shut up shop. Its like a patient over the highest of the temperature, but theyre sick you dont want to see a relapse. You have to keep the patient under pretty intensive care until we have a vaccine for coronavirus. David, diane, thank you for joining us as we wait for the president , the market up 2. 2 . 27k all time high on the nasdaq 100. 10year a stones throw from 1 right now. Eighty dollars. A hundred dollars. I had good health insurance. Why isnt this covered . Well, then they started getting bigger. Eighthundred dollars. Eighteen hundred dollars. I saved for this. But not that much. Im glad i had aflac. They gave me money when i needed it most. Thats why aflac is here, to help with the Expenses Health insurance doesnt cover. I love that aflac duck. Aflac get to know us at aflac. Com you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. Woi felt completely helpless. Hed online. My entire career and business were in jeopardy. I called reputation defender. Vo take control of your online reputation. Get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender. Com. Find out your online reputation today and let the experts help you repair it. Woman they were able to restore my good name. Vo visit reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. We thought you could help ray bring hiwhat . S to school. Kelly, do you know him . Hes a new friend. You ok . You know you can tell me. Im ok. Oh, i trained her in the car. Shes not gonna break. [ laughs ] jobs number is the story of the day. Its fuelling the stock rally. Awaiting the president along with the protests still taking place around the country demanding solutions to racial and income inequality. The ceo of snap on is joining us good to talk to you. Thanks for having me. Hows it going its going pretty well today. Both market and now this jobs data, it took a lot of people by surprise certainly not what economists were expecting does it fit with the picture youre seeing . Sure. I think it does. I was on the road visiting factories and garages and talking to franchisees weve seen this picture before we say the event is shock. We had the virus then accommodation and psychological recovery we went through the shock period, i believe we saw the same thing at sandy after katrina. On a smaller geographic area, this is sort of the same we have a pretty solid business. Were not recession immune, but were kind of resistance its one of the reasons why weve been able to pay a dividend every quarter since 1939 it raises the questions all the companies that in march and april appeared to be going ultra defensive, raising a ton of issue, issuing a lot of debt, what happens to the capital now that theyve established the fortress walls do they keep it for a Rainy Day Fund or the risk of things going wrong in the fall or beyond . You cant speak for everybody. I think this is it lets not get too overheated unemployment is still 13 . This isnt full recovery but i do think it reinforces the idea this is a v start coming back. People start to figure out how to deal with the problem i was in vietnam when bombs fell in vietnam, people got daunted for a day or two, but the cities restored to the lives. I think people will take that capital and be careful about it. They start investing in the future theres no reason to believe that the world doesnt get better for us, we think people want to start driving more, because i think mass transit and inner city positions are less attractive in the case of now that a black swan of a virus well invest in product. Weve said were going to come out of this stronger because were going to keep investing in brand and our product and our people we spent a lot of time moving our snap on team we havent laid off anybody during this period were going to try to make sure we dont do it we want to keep our team intact. Do you think thats representative of the broader Manufacturing Industry in the country . Do you think that manufacturing is going to be able to weather the storm better than other industries i think its difficult, but i think manufacturing has been essential. One of the great things about this period is it reinforced how important essential makers and fixers are to our economy. Ive always felt and i talk often about this one of the things we need to do is restore the respect for the dignity of work. For working men and women. Theyre the people that have made us great through the whole period this virus is a lesson in that regard because isnt it ironic that the jobs we look at, factory jobs or repair jobs, that some people view as a consolation prize of our society are the jobs we turn to as essential when the days are the darkest. I think whats going to happen is as we come out of this, people are going to say boy, manufacturing is more important. Can you imagine if we had outsourced all our toilet paper to china it would have been panic there was panic anyway, nick. To that point, though, if we truly repatriate a lot of manufacturing at a higher cost basis, because were not going to workers are not going to tolerate chinese wages, and if demand comes back, what happens to pricing in your business . Do goods get more expensive . Well, we and to sell ill tell you this. We actually make in the markets where we sell. So 80 of what we sell in the United States is right here. Its made right here and hand tools, 50 labor. Weve been able to deal with that by working at the factories constantly people talk about distancing when we go in the factories, we see that people are distanced automatically pause theyre running three or four machines theyre running the robots i believe as manufacturing expands, ironically, this is the answer to some of the social issues of the day. Because i think people have talked about the angst and the despair and the fear about this. I think the solution is to expand great jobs the makers and fixers restore the respect for those jobs and allow people to be included in that or your degree isnt necessary i believe that expanding manufacturing in the United States, growing that base which has always made us strong, gives jobs, includes people and makes for a stronger and healthier economy. And solves some of the big issues of this day it would be great if those two things could dove tail, and solve two problems or get to solving two problems at the same time i believe they can. Let me add this one thing. One of the things about it is is that before the pandemic, 500,000 manufacturing jobs in the National Association of manufacturers documented this. Went unfilled. Part of it is we didnt have the schools in place we know how to deal with that. But the other part is people whoven didnt have jobs, viewed jobs in manufacturing or in garages as jobs that didnt fulfill the American Dream, that didnt give them the way to make their families warm and safe and dry and give them pride and dignity. All the bill lars of a great life i can assure you the ability to keep your family warm and safe and dry and the pride and dignity are available in abundance in the factories of snap on and across the repair garages of this country. And so if we talk about those jobs as if they are not consolation prizes, or maybe something which other people settle for, but are truly what they are as has been demonstrated this time, an american calling, and i think we go a long way to building our economy back up, creating the inclusion we want, and allowing more people to access the American Dream nick, we love checking in with you thank you for that well talk to you soon okay. Sara time for our etf spotlight today semi conductors ticker smh hitting a new intraday all time high on pace for the best week in two months. Economically sensitive chip stocks names participating include micron, broad com, kla corp. Stay tuned President Trumps News Conference on the jobs report a gain of 2. 5 million jobs versus an expectation of a loss of 7. 5 million jobs. It was a mucbeerh tt report. Well be right back on squasqu on the street welcome back, everyone heres your cnbc news update at this hour. The tsa says nearly 392,000 travelers went through the check points yesterday that is the most since march 22nd its also up 22 from last thursday nonetheless, the number of travelers is down 85 from the same day last year the video youre about to see might be upsetting in buffalo two officers suspended without pay after police shoved a 75yearold man to the ground, cracking his head on the pavement. It happened while police were clearing protesters from a city square the mayor said the man has been hospitalized and is in serious but stable conditions. British scientists halted a large trial of high driving while intoxicated cold hydroxychloroquine you are up to date ill see you in an hour and back to you, carl all right. Sue, thank you i think were going to get to david faber in a moment here on the ongoing saga carl, i havent gotten to it this morning theres been a number of reports about it its a story weve been following closely since womens wear daily brought up the idea well being disturbed by the deterioration of tiffanys business and the possibility of getting a price cut. I can tell you the all right. We have to go to the president i guess im not sure when well get to this, but lets go to President Trump. Well have positive surprises. And therapeutics likewise, were doing extremely well cures were doing well i think those two words blend in with each other. But tremendous progress on vaccines we have ready to go in terms of transportation and logistics, we have over 2 million ready to go if it checks out for safety. And its also the nice part is we have four companies, i guess you could even say seven or eight companies that are doing some similar and some different on the vaccine front, and some similar and some somewhat different on the therapeutic front. Tremendous progress is being made on that, and i think even without that, and i have to say even without that, and i dont think youre going to have to use that in the future, that statement, even without, because i think theyre going to have it, but were going to be back and were opening our country, and i hope that the lockdown governors, i dont know why they continue to lockdown, because if you look at georgia, florida, south carolina, if you look at so many different places that have opened up, i dont want to name all of them, but the ones that are most energetic about opening, theyre doing tremendous business. This is what these numbers are all about. And you have to remember one other thing. Its extremely important to remember many of our states are closed or almost closed. Some of the big ones new york, new jersey, theyll start. Theyre starting now to get open, i hope i hope they also use our National Guard call me. Well be ready for them so fast their heads will spin. We did it in minneapolis they were ripping that place apart. I love it. We had such success there. And they were ripping it apart, and i called the governor, and the National Guard went in and in one night it was over you dont see the problem in minnesota now. At all not even a little bit. Take a look at a great city. It just great city. Minneapolis. And it was under siege like nobodys ever seen where people are running from the police department, the great police they were told to. They didnt want to run. They were told to. Its bad governing im blaming the mayor, but we want to get all of this finished this is a great tribute. What were announcing today is a tremendous tribute to equality were bringing our jobs back when we had our tremendous numbers, and when we had just prior to the china plague that floated in, we had numbers the best in history for hispanic and Asian American and for everybody. Best for women best for people without a diploma, young people without a diploma. So many categories our numbers were the best in almost every category. We had the most people working in the history of our country. Almost 160 Million People. We were never close to that. We had things that we were doing so well, and then it came in i think were going to be back higher next year than ever before the only thing that can stop us is bad policy. Frankly, left wing, bad policy of raising taxes and Green New Deals and all the things that you have been writing about long and hard that will stop it like you wouldnt believe and frankly, its holding it back if there were no possibility that that can happen, and i like to be optimistic i think were looking good i think before today the polls ive seen and we do were looking very good, but if we didnt have the possibility of having massively higher taxes like the democrats want to do, and Green New Deals which are ridiculous, ridiculous and im a big environmentalist i believe strongly in taking care of our environment. We have the cleanest air weve ever had, like other the modern era. Lets say you go back 30 years we have the cleanest air and water weve ever had were setting all sorts of really Good Environmental records. Were proud of that. The Green New Deal would have a devastating effect on the world. Its impossible for them to do it if you look at what they want to do, its like baby talk this was an important day. It shows what were doing is right. And the reason it is so good is because the body was strong. Our body was so powerful that we could actually close our country, save millions of lives, stop people very early on from china from coming in because we stopped early at the end of january, very early, people coming from china who were infected coming into our country. It was a hard decision to make almost nobody wanted me to make it i would almost say nobody wanted me to make the but we made the decision and even my enemy said that was extremely important we saved tens of thousands of lives with that decision we did a lot of things and then we really ended up with empty cupboards. We went into a ventilator period, the likes of which nobody has seen since the second world war. We mobilized nobody has seen anything like it and then we did tests. Were over 20 million. I think over 20 million tests. More than anybody in the world germany is about at 4. And south korea is at 3. 5. Were at over 20 and by the way, when you do more testing, you have more cases we have more cases because we do more testing than anybody. Its simple. This is outstanding whats happened today now, they thought the number would be a loss of 9 million jobs and it was a gain of almost 3 million jobs i think it was incredible in a couple of ways number one, the numbers are great. And this leads us onto a long period of growth well have the greatest. Well go back to having the greatest economy anywhere in the world. I think were going to have a very good upcoming few months. I think youre going to have a very good august, very good july but a spectacular maybe spectacular settlement a spectacular november, december, and next year is going to be one of the best years weve had economically, and if you look at the numbers, they bear it out. But we were strong its like when you go for an operation, if a person is healthy, we were healthy we had the greatest economy in the world. We went in for an operation. We closed our country down we closed it down. We saved possibly 2 million, 2. 5 million lives now, it could have been a million lives. I dont think anything less than that but if you think were at 105 million today, the 105,000 today, that would mean at the lowest number it would be 10 times that amount. And i think everybody believes the least if we heard as they say, if you look at brazil theyre having a hard time, and they kept bringing up sweden its come back to haunt sweden theyre having a terrible time if we did that, we would have lost a million, maybe 2. 5 million lives. We closed it up to europe. Europe became very infected from china. A gift from china. They should have stopped it at the source but its a gift from china and a very bad gift. I will tell you that when you do say how come at wuhan where it started and they were very badly, were in bad trouble, but it didnt go to any other parts. Beijing or other parts of china. When you say how come it came out to europe, to the world, to the United States . So it didnt go to china they stopped it. Knew it was a problem. But they didnt stop it cold from coming to the United States, europe, and the rest of the world. Somebody has to ask these questions. And well get down to the answer you know, we made a great trade deal were going to buy 250 billion worth of product and theyre online theyre doing okay but the ink wasnt dry on the deal when the plague floated in. Whats going on . The plague is floating in from china. Whats going on . So the ink wasnt dry. I guess i view the trade deal differently than three months ago. Its a great deal. They are buying a lot from us. In that way, i respect and getting along with china would be a good thing. I dont know if thats going to happen ill let you know. I think they want to get along very much with us. But we built a tremendous thing, a tremendous power platform. When it got ill, when we had a problem, we were able to cut it off, stop it, just like this stop it. Keep everyone inside keep them away keep them together, away uninfected, and we saved millions of lives and now were opening with a bang. Weve been talking about the v this is better this is the rocket ship. This is better than a v. A v is wonderful a v is this. Will it be a v, a u, an l . They had no idea i was watching one of the shows. I have Great Respect for people. They said will it be 9 million job losses will it be what will be the number will it be, are they going to report record numbers . Will we break 20 . What will the number be . And you know, i dont know because we were in and i dont think were in that territory anymore. We were in unchartered territory. Nobody has ever had a situation like that. So the number was 9 million and one of the people was no, no, i think its going to be 10 million. Thats 10 million negative losses and then somebody else said no, we think its going to be 8. 7. 9. 2. Everyone was right around that number this is great geniuses and they are. I watch them all the time and oftentimes theyre right Warren Buffett soild airlines. Right his whole life, but sometimes they make mistakes the Airline Stocks went through the roof today and others did too. The whole market went through the roof, but they said 9 million job losses 9 million. Thats what its going to be are we going to break 20 . Are we going to break it and then the numbers came in, and none of the folks that was reading the numbers said wow, this is a great number its only be million job losses. And then reading it and said, you know, im not reading this right. Let me look at it again. Wait a minute. This is 3 million gained almost. And then one of them semi shouted out is this a typo i think it was probably the greatest miscalculation in the history of business shows. The history of business shows talking about wall street. And thats okay. But one of the reasons were in this position is because we had such a Strong Foundation we were able to close our country, save millions of lives, open and now the trajectory is great. Dont forget, new york is barely included and thats one of our big ones california is barely included. Because theyre not open and they should open, by the way. The mayor of los angeles wants to keep this thing closed for a long time. Look at whats going on in florida. Its incredible. The job the governor of florida has done is incredible the numbers theyre doing. Youve got to open it up, and you do social distancing and wear masks if you want and you do things. You can do a lot of things youre getting closer together even you, i note youre getting closer together. It looks much better youre not all the way there, but youll be there soon its a tremendous thing that happened and it happened because we had a really strong patient we had a patient that was so powerful, so strong that we could close it and open it i give this analogy. Somebody told me yesterday, it was larry kudlow he said sir, its like a hurricane. And we were worried. We didnt know, is this going to be a hurricane or a major recession . A major recession thats not artificially caused because we artificially this was artificially closed. We said boom, closed, and everything just stopped. And also, you know what else stopped . Big numbers on death by doing it. And thats why we had to do it weve made every decision correctly, but it was like we stopped. It was an artificial closing and then what happened, very incredibly larry was saying with a hurricane you have a horrible hurricane in florida or texas and its devastating and then the hurricane goes away and within two hours everyone is rebuilding and fixing and cleaning and cutting their grass. Ive seen it in texas. Ive seen it everywhere, everywhere texas had a massive one. Louisiana. Hurricanes florida, hurricanes. What happens is right after the hurricane, boom, and this is what this is this is a terrible recession i dont even mention the d word. I dont talk about it. I dont want to talk about it. Because every time somebody even mentions it, i dont like the d word if you had a really, really big bad recession, it would take it could take 10, 12 how long did it take in 1929 . It took many years to recover from that . Ten, i heard ten, i think longer than ten, but thats okay. I heard 14, 15 years larry says 10. Lets go with ten. It takes a long time to recover. But a hurricane, youre back in business in one day, two days, three days its devastating and hard. And this was a hurricane its going to get better fast. The early numbers are what you see. Theyre not even in the last month. And speaking of that, you had the greatest 50day rally in the history of our exchanges the greatest 50day rally. And we have a lot of protesters. And we have Something Else right . We have Something Else we have a pandemic weve made tremendous progress if you look at where weve come on both, weve made tremendous progress on both tremendous progress. But youre looking and the people are now starting to return to work its been an incredible thing to see. Its been a beautiful thing to see. The experts predicted that the thats the president in the rose garden talking about the jobs number this morning the covid response, talking about the numbers in his words, which are great. The economy better than a v, a rocket ship. Even commenting on buffetts call on airlines economists consensus views for the jobs number calling it the greatest miscalculation in the history of business shows. Well bring you headlines as they develop hell sign the ppp flexibility act soon and head to soon. A reminder to viewers the president used to come on our air once a week, at least, and talk about the economy and markets and talk about personalties that News Conference could have fit in any of those segments from years ago absolutely. Reminds me of the trump tuesdays and the president making open ended comments there but really taking full political credit for the rebound and suggesting hes made every decision right throughout the year with the pandemic and the economy. The president making the anl si that this is more like a hurricanes impact on the economy than it is a full blown recession. That is, its temporary and sharp. The minute the sky clears, people get out and start rebuilding hes hoping thats whats going to happen. And if it does, thats a strong piece of evidence for him out on the campaign trail saying look, i handled this right and the economy is rebounding. Reelect me in november this white house is happy to have the news after a tough week, couple weeks for the white house politically. And carl, i want to Say Something about what weve seen on twitter and some high profile commenters, the bls truther crowd. You alluded to it earlier. We see skepticism from trump critics. Theres no evidence to suggest theres anything wrong with the number its different than what we expected but theres no evidence that this was in some way cooked as weve seen some prominent people out there suggesting it reminds me of the days back in 2016 when we saw prominent partisans saying the chicago guys are cooking the numbers for barack obama in 2016 there was no evidence of it then theres no evidence of it now. Well follow the trail if there ever does become any evidence and well report it. But i think people need to take the numbers on face value until theres any evidence that theyre not. And i think that skepticism speaks to something going on in our society broadly which is a generalized lack of trust skepticism and increased believe in conspiracy theories across the board. Its something we have to watch. It makes it harder to analyze the numbers. Quickly, the president said that china gave us a gift from china was how he referred to covid19 a plague floating in from china. He also talked about the trade deal he said i view the trade deal differently. They are buying a lot from us, he said, which i respect, but clearly for an issue that matters so much to the market, is this deal in jeopardy well, look, we dont know youve seen good news from the white house. Theyre heartened to see the chinese begin to buy after a pause period there was concern the deal would fall apart theapart the signals theyre getting now seem to suggest that things are on the upswing from the chinese as the virus passes maybe the chinese will be able to hold to their end of the bargain a little more. The situation between the United States and china is difficult and getting more difficult and the real flashpoint is the hong kong situation and the protests and crackdown of the chinese politically on hong kong as the u. S. Government expresses frustration with that decision, youre going to see more tension between the United States and china and i think that that is going to be the question of whether that pressure snaps the trade deal or whether the trade deal is tron enough to withstand the real divisions were seeing between the United States and china. Eamon javers, thank you session highs, a little over an hour into trading as the president speaks the dow up 752 points, a gain of almost 3 . The s p up 2. 3 . The nasdaq zooming up 1. 7 lets bring in jan, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs on the jobs number that we saw today, how are you explaining it to your clients the big miss from economists and forecasters like yourself . I think we just saw a lot more rehiring. I mean i think thats the best explanation hat, you know, we saw in late april and through may that Economic Activity was picking up, but didnt really expect that to translate into significant rehiring until the june numbers theres a lot more rehiring. There have been a lot of layoffs. We can see that from the weekly unemployment claims numbers, but the missing part in terms of the weekly numbers is how much rehiring there is and in both the Establishment Survey and in the Household Survey were seeing that people are coming back a lot more quickly than they would have done in past Business Cycles that were driven by factors other than the pandemic it is a very, very different Business Cycle and the lags between resumption and activity and a turn in the labor market are also much shorter. How sustainable is the rise in employment . How quickly do these jobs come back were still looking at a double digit Unemployment Rate with millions of americans out of work thats right. The Unemployment Rate is still very high. Theres still, you know, classification issues in Household Survey of employment as the Labor Department says in the qa and accompanying the report there is some, you know, there are people counted as employed but absent from work that one could also count as unemployed theres no question that theres still a very large hit to employment, even after this report how sustainable is it . I do think were going to get throw the declines in the Unemployment Rate about 75 of job losers since february are temporarily unemployed or temporary layoff ands historically a large proportion of those temporary unemployed workers come back pretty quickly within the next three to six months into employment so the Unemployment Rate is going to continue to fall and the payroll numbers are going to continue to be, you know, positive in the millions well see how far were going to fall by the end of the year into 2021 i think theres an enormous amount of uncertainty around that, but this is very clearly the teurn in terms of the labor market and clearly a month before most people expected it hey, jan, give the president s rhetoric just now, its hard to imagine that the political will exists for further stimulus, fiscal or monetary is that your view and what implications would that have for when we get to some of these employment fiscal cliffs, such as the runoff of ppp money. It raises more of a question around the political debate, as far as fiscal policy is concerned. We still expect that there will be additional fiscal action because you have the 600 of additional unemployment benefit per week that runs out at the end of july and i dont think that theyre going to let that lapse, you know, in one goal an extension of 600 beyond july, that seems unlikely to ask, but we think basically 300 or so to sort of soften the blow somewhat i think theres the changes to the ppp and i think there will be some extensions you know there as well. On the Monetary Policy side, i dont think it really has a major impact i dont think the fed is really going to change anything were not expecting significant shifts next week they still see an extremely high Unemployment Rate, yes its much lower than they thought. But were still far into double digit territory and theyre going to be focused on the fact that thats the highest number still weve seen in the postwar period and well well be very careful not to send a message that this means theyre going to exit from accommodative policy any time soon they would be worried about that reaction in the bond market and potential repercussions for the further recovery we still need to see to start putting people, you know, back to work in a more comprehensive way. Is all right. So you would not expect any comment from the fed that would alter or change the way spreads have been behaving in recent weeks . I think they will still indicate that theyre going to be extremely accommodative for a long period of time. Theyll, of course, you know, greet the improvement in the labor market numbers and some of the other numbers and thats very encouraging but theres still a long way to go thats the message that i would expect at the press conference on wednesday jan, how many of the jobs or which industries how are you thinking about which jobs that are lost could be permanent . I mean, i think the, you know, vast majority of the job losses about three quarters that weve seen since february have contemporary we dont have a huge amount of industry level breakdown on that. This comes from the Household Survey employment which doesnt give you as much industry detail, but my assumption is that the temporary job losses are over represented in areas like leisure and hospitality and construction and generally in industries where youve got shorter, more turnover in employment relationships and so there i think the rebound is also likely to be most pronounced we dont have a lot of data on that industry distribution and finally, jan, the shape of the recovery, this is looking like a v fushgs look , if you le initial stage of reopening the president describes it as a rocket ship. Does this do anything to change the overall curve once we get past the initial stage of reopening of the economic recovery in this country yeah. It is looking more vshaped i think and that was already i think somewhat visible over the past few weeks where the hit to april, you know, looked like it was getting bigger in terms of the estimates, but at the same time there was more evidence that you really started to come back in late april and into may. I think its definitely more vshaped were going and i think the initial stages are going to feature some big increases in Economic Activity because there are a number of areas, number of industries where it should be pretty easy to bring back activity manufacturing is a good example. The u. S. Auto industry basically was at zero production, close to zero in april, the production plans are calling for 70 to 80 of capacity by june. Now well see whether that ultimately materializes. But i certainly think you can bring back a large amount of production in areas like manufacturing and construction thereafter, you know, i think the pace of recovery is probably going to slow somewhat its going to be fastest in the first few months and then as with you get towards the end of the year the uncertainties go up somewhat how many of these temporary job losses will have become permanent in the meantime. Some probably will theres also the question of what happens with the virus news the virus news has been good of course theres still uncertainties around how reopening affects the new virus cases. But yeah, its definitely looking more v shaped in the short term all right good to hear, jan. Thank you very much. Always good to have you on a jobs day chief economist at Goldman Sachs. Carl all right sara, well see you this afternoon. Good friday morning, everybody welcome to squawk alley. Im Carl Quintanilla with Michael Bloomberg and jon fortt coming to you live from separate locations. A remarkable morning for the economy and markets as the jobs number comes in much better than expected, a gain of 2. 5 million, a gain of 2. 5 million and the Unemployment Rate nowhere near estimates at 13. 3. 27 k on the dow, alltime highs for apple, for the nasdaq 100, the 10year near 1 . Just a huge pivot, a potential moment here, jon, for the market and hopefully the economy at large. Yeah, carl. When many thought a vshaped recovery was off the table, more sign not just in the market but the economy itself that the recovery might be taking