Confidence in the space. Closing the week in the green. It is now less than so 10 away from its 52week highs so if youre looking for a way to play catch up with the space, carter has a marvelous pick for you. Take it away thats right. Trade here is to find within a laggard group and semis are good, but they really lag the tech sector by almost 800 basis points yeartodate, and marvell within it acting quite well. A few charts, so lets go. Just to give the facts and figures. We know there are 30 stocks in the stocks index and we know its value total 1. 65 trillion now if you look at the second slide, this is the issue semis are still some 9. 5 their peak and only five stocks have made new highs. Actually the time of writing, marvell was 1. 5 below the february peak, and closed at 4. 5 big surge. Best performer on the day, which is usually a good setup. So one of three charts the first. A simple way to annotate note the welldefined tops at the common level move the authority of 28 level and this stock is just breaking out 30 on the close take it another way. Next chart to draw the line. Basically, you want a range bound security stuck between 28 and 22 and then you get this plunge. Market related, it drops 40 , 50 , and now its recovered all that ground and broken out to a new high we think the breakout has legs and then finally, relative performance. This is really the opportunity marvell on top last chart its relative performance to the s h. Marvell underperformed for almost ten months and now youre starting to see relative performance to its peers one of only five we like this a lot aggressive move today but we think it foreshadows even more to come on an earnings beat. So, mike, whats the trade on this its interesting. First of all, i should give a shoutout to carter its tough here hes caught chasing a stock thats up 3 today and this was a name he liked when i was talking to him earlier this morning, so he is probably frustrated that he has a bullish call and weve already seen a big pop but that seems to be confirming what hes talking about. Weve got earnings coming out next week and heres the thing one of the reasons the stock may have performed poorly was that you know there was some basically eps issues, but looking forward, this is a company thatll probably make close to a dollar and a and a half in about 18 months time on a run rate basis that makes the company not very expensive. Right now, options arent expensive either because this is a stock thats moved an average of about 5 . Thats what the Options Market is implying, suggesting that options are reasonably priced given Everything Else thats going on so given the fact were making a bullish bet in the stock thats had such a strong move, i thin the way we want to play is this is with the call spread. I was looking at the june 30, 34 call spread that would cost about 1. 20. Up to 34, which happens to be one of the most recently revised price targets. One of the Analysts Covering the stock came out with the price target today so were trying to look to a move up to around 33, 34 up to about ten or more percent. Try to take advantage of the fact that options arent overly expensive and not trying reach out and just go out and purchase stocks that are trading at all time highs tony, do you like the stock and what do you think of mikes trade . So, first of all, i really like this chart set up i really like this play that carter has identified. The massive top at 28 that had just broke out above and you have strong, relative strength, as he said i think it is a good recipe for a move higher going into earnings now mikes trade, i really like even more because of the fact that he sold the 34 call option for 50 cents he was able to offset almost a third of the cost of buying that june 30 call option now, hes only risking 3 of the underlying stock price on earnings play, which is rare to mix that small amount. Even if it breaks below 28, youre only risking 3 to try to make almost 2. 5 times that, if this trade rallies on earnings the benefit is that weve gotten some names that have reported and their commentary has been good about those end markets so that could help this trade as it goes into earnings yeah, no, i think youre right. Of course it has helped the stock. I think if we take a look at how the stock has behaved this week, weve seen it has traded higher. Even ahead of its own Earnings Report basically on the backs of what were hearing out of the other parts of the industry. Of course thats one of the reasons into your own Earnings Report because in the off chance they happen to announce something idiosyncratic to them not related to other chip makers, were mitigating our downside exposure by doing this and as tony pointed out, in a high volatility market environment weve got, it is not easy to find cheap options plays. All things considered, this one is fairly priced moving on from big tech to biotech. Its been a crazy week for the space which has flown all over the map on a series of headlines surrounding moderna. That shock shot up 20 on positive news regarding a potential covid19 vaccine before spending the rest of the week crashing back to earth. Data came under the microscope but if you think there could be more to the story in the space, mike tony, excuse me, tony has a plan tony yes, so weve been seeing a lot of news out of companies that have been working on vaccines for covid19 thats been driving a lot of bullis sentiment, but there are a handful of Companies Working on treatments with existing drugs for some of the symptoms of covid19 thats really what i want to look at here the company is insight, who has a phase three Clinical Trial with novartis using their drug to treat the lung damage or to reduce the lung damage of covid19 patients. And this is something that i think is quite interesting to take a look at because if you see, the Clinical Trial announcement lines up with the technical chart breaking out above the 95 resistance level it spent the last month consolidating between 95 and 105 and i think its primed now for a potential breakout higher and if we look at the implied volatility, which is the measurement of its future of volatility of the stock, its also a way we use to measure the cheapness or expensiveness of an option insight has been trading between roughly 30 to 40 vol, even though it is off its peak of 70 . Insights implied volatility, the options here, are not particularly cheap so the trade structure that i want to utilize here to take a bullish view on insight is t use a similar trade structure and using a call spread here im going out to july and im buying the july 110 calls for about 5. 50 and im selling the july 115 calls against that for about 90 cents paying about 4. 60 which is about 4. 5 of the underlying stock price. The reason im doing this is because whenever you bet on these types of biotech Clinical Trials, they tend to be a buy nar bib binary event that works or doesnt. They neither work out or dont i want to make sure im risking the smallest amount possible i also want to make sure im selling premium. Thats why im selling that july 115 call against it it offsets a fifth of the cost of the long call, reducing my risk on this bet to about 4. 5 of the underlying stock price. Carter, what do you make of the insight chart . Well, what i think has to be said, and this is the constructive thing is, yes, it is a breakout candidate, but it is a massive laggard thats coming to life you know that essentially biotech, ibb, is making alltime highs, and this stock peaked at 153 as far back as two, three years ago. Here it is only at 100 meaning, its got the onetwo setup of underperformance over a long period of time, and now a pretty important out performance. It looks great mike, what do you think of the trade . Its one of the situation where you have a binary outcome. If it is drug related. This is a Company People thought might make as much as four bucks, which wouldnt make it overwhelmingly expensive it isnt a one trick pony in that sense its not playing off a vaccine youre inclined to make a bullish bet. I dont have i have no insight on insight, you can say, but i like how tony ask structuring the trade. Stoil coill to come, just we you implying why you should be asking that question mike schools us with a little reflection on the fundamentals of the game and illustrates them with a real world case study everything options action, check out our website. While youre there, you can sign up for our newsletter. Announcer options action sponsored by think or swim by Td Ameritrade staying connected your way youre just a tap away from personalized support on xfinity. Com. Get faster internet speeds with a click. Order xfi pods to your home in a snap. Or change your Xfinity Services with just a touch. All in one place. Youre only seconds away from all of that on xfinity. Com. Faster than a call. Easy as a tap. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Welcome back to options action. Volatility is the name of the game in the stock market this year, but when it comes to trading options, the vicx is the tip of the iceberg if youre joining us for the first time, or a seasoned vet with a napkin with you, mike is here to guide you through the nuts and bolts of options pricing and a way to play one of the markets worst performing sectors. Professor mike, take it away what is implied volatility . It is the annualized standard deviations of the movement of the underlying securities. Sounds like a mouthful and it is, but it doesnt need to be that complicated we can break it down into simpler ideas. The first thing to think about is that options are a form of insurance if you will on stocks and etfs and indexes so the more they move around, the more volatile they are, the higher the premiums will be. Thats one of the reasons that options traders tend to think about the implied volatility as basically the price of options so for people who are at home trying to figure out how to think about it, the thing to do is actually use a back of the napkin calculation to see how much the Options Market is expecting something to move around by looking at the cost of a straddle what is a straddle its when you combine a call and put of the same strike and expoor expiration. If we look at xlf, the financial etf, we can look at the straddle when i was looking at this today, it was trading close to about 22 per share so ill look at the june 22 call and the june 22 put when i was looking at this today, that cost about 1. 65 that is 7. 5 of the current stock price. You can think of that as how much the Options Market is expecting this thing going to move on average between now and june expiration. And to put things in perspective, before we had all this pandemic, the at the money straddle with xlf trading over 30, just 3. 2 of the price. That gives you a sense of how much options premiums are now than they were before this broke out. Now as it happens, im not particularly constructive on financials despite the fact that theyve seen these big declines. A lot of the things going on will continue to present a head wind now a lot of people will have exposure to financials maybe you own the s p 500, maybe jpmorgan the best of breed amongst the big banks. But you want to have some way to hedge that exposure. I was taking a look at the july 21 18 put spread earlier today, you could spend 60 cents to put that on. Why are we using a put spread . Exactly what i was talking about. Options premiums are more than double what they were in february if we get a vshaped bond, where we have remarkably good news and these take off, you dont want to be short the stocks outright. If you have exposure to the space, hang on, but hedge it using xlf put spreads. May be a good way to play it. Good explainer, mike. Tony, what are your thoughts on using volatility to figure out the movement in stocks so, it makes a lot of sense if you look at xlfs, implied volatility, it is elevated financials is one of the only sectors i currently have short positions in xlf is the only sector outside of energy that is still trading below the december 2018 low. So i would agree with the directional view here, but because of the fact that xlfs implied volatility still fairly elevated here, my preference here is selling premium. Partially because the fact that mikes trade requires a sizable move to the downside in order for it to be profitable. Im not as bearish on xlf. Im simply not bullish on xlf. So my preference here is to identify weaker names within the sector, such as wells fargo or goldman sachs, and im selling call spreads on the names. If they stay where they are and move mildly lower, im still able to be profitable on these trades were showing them, mike, but can you walk us through the levels of your xlf trade yeah. Sure i was looking at buying the july 21 puts, and those would cost about 90 cents per contract. The 18 puts were about 30 cents, roughly a third of the premium that i would have by collecting the lower strike put and thats how i got to the 60cent net debit. When youre dealing with financials youre dealing with immense Balance Sheets small differences on the Balance Sheets make a big difference to the equity during the credit crisis, they started to swing around violently. You can see steady earnings for a long time, but if you start having credit problems or you start seeing the book value of these companies deteriorate, it could have a meaningful impact and you have to think about the headwinds, whether theyll have good cni loans there are a lot of things that dont look great for the space just the fact that its come in doesnt necessarily mean theyre all that cheap carter, your take on the xlf . The real problem, of course, if you think of the financial crisis, the peak of 07 to the plunge of 09. The s p 500 Financial Sector could never get back above the 07. Weve plunged again and its not just banks and its Asset Managers and Life Health Insurers and all of it theres something wrong. Relative performance is poor you heard tony, i mean, it is one area he remains short. We love it on the short side no reason to be buying what does that mean for your view on the broader markets, carter pretty dismal, huh at some point right. We know banks are the transmission mechanism for the economy, and something has to get solved here. It cannot just all go to microsoft and apple and facebook and so forth top five names are now almost 23 of the s p final word, mike . Yeah. I mean, i do think that there are some parts of the economy that are continuing to work and there are some that are clearly broken like energy, but i think financials are a notouch here unless youre using it in a hedged capacity. Because they have so much exposure, and we dont entirely know, at this point, what the exposure is. Coming up next, target hitting the market on its earnings and well tell you what the move means for one of our options traders. Plus, were taking your tweets send us questions at options action and we will answer some of them on air we are back right after this announcer options action is sponsored by think or swim by Td Ameritrade. So you can quickly check the markets . Yeah, actually im taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. Excellent. And you have thinkorswim mobile so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. You two are all set. Have a great flight. Thanks. Well see ya. Ah, theyre getting so smart. Choose the app that fits your investing style. Show me what youre made of. So we showed it our people, sourcing and distributing more fresh food than anyone. Our drivers helping grocers restock their shelves. How were helping restaurants open popup markets. And encouraging all americans to take out to give back. Adversity came to town. So we looked it in the eye. And it wont be us. That blinks first. Many of lifes moments in thare being put on hold. Are staying at home, at carvana, we understand that, for some, getting a car just cant wait. To help, were giving our customers up to 90 days to make their first payment. Shop online from the comfort of your couch, and get your car with touchless delivery to keep you safe. 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Just last week tony bet that target might hit the earnings bulls eye the stock managed to break back above 118 earlier this week retests as support on thursday, and is now starting to trade higher and the you couple that with the recent relative strength of this particular stock, it is fairly wellpositioned going into earnings next week by going out to the may 29th weekly options im selling the 121 114 put vertical target is down almost 3 this week on the back of its Earnings Report, and this trade dropped into the red later in the day. Tony, what do you do now so targets Earnings Report actually was quite spectacular and the stock pulled back and its now below the 118 support level that i had mentioned on that trade so at this point, its time to cut your losses on this particular trade at the moment, this trade is still pretty much flat so youre not losing a lot of money, but its time to cut your losses and move on. Carter, would you agree on that in terms of the chart yes, i mean, its a flareup like that was very strong and then it faded aggressively we know walmart did the same thing and it kind of puts a cap on it. Mike said one troubled travel stock was headed nowhere fast. We dont see real ends in sight for this either. The pressure that theyre under is going to require not only a reopening, but travelers to decide thats where theyre going to focus their time and attention and reengage in that way. The one thing i would say prevents this from falling out and one of the things that people can take a look at is private equity is investing in the space. The ones that expire next week, may 22nd, 65puts, selling those and buying the junes netnet, cost 2. 75. Now a couple of things have happened since then. Expedia rocketed higher on moder modernas hopeful vaccine news, and the first leg of mikes trade expired, leaving him long on the june put. So mike, whats the story of the trade now . Thats a great point. When modernas news came out monday, every name in the space rocketed higher. They were up 15 to 20 . Which means if you were watching the show last friday it was never trading close to 65 or 66, which is where the stock was when we referenced this trade. Which is why you should follow us and actions options on twitter. I adjusted the trade and did the selling of the 23s in the weeklies and long the 75s and that actually worked out fine because the stock actually traded dead sideways, kind of what we were expecting anyway be sure to follow us and if youre long those other puts you can sell premium against it. It is time to take your tweets one of our favorite segments of the show the premice of the intu trade was that it was going to do what paypal did, and it didnt. So what do we do with intuit now . Thats a very good question. Carter, what do you make of the chart . Sure. This is the hardest circumstance of all if the stock breaks out and does what its supposed to do when theyre long, you know what to did. Take the money and run or reduce and it collapses get out. This stock went up 1 and thats not what we were playing for the earnings have come and gone and the pattern isnt damaged and the hunch here is to stick with it, but push out your time frame. Mike, do you agree . Yeah. This is interesting because our trade structure, were short the 10 put spread, risking a little over 3 of the current stock price. Were not taking a massive amount of risk by sticking with the position we have we have june expiration. We have some time, and ill stay with it. Our next tweet and next viewer asks saw some unusual options activity this morning on masterca mastercard, calls expiring may 29th does mastercard have a chance of breaking out above 300 next week tony, what do you think . So mastercard got rejected at that 300 level early this week, but i do think mastercard with its strong relative strength and the credit card data were currently looking at, has pretty good chance of breaking above 300. Those calls do expire next week so you dont have a lot of time. I think if you want to play that breakout, a call option is a great way to do so with limited risk, but i might go out a little further and maybe a week out further than may 29th. All right time now for the final call. Last word from the options men Carter Braxton worth marvell, marvelous. Long a man of so few words mike khouw . Look, the way to play marvel going into earnings, options arent overpriced and use the 30 34 call spreads specificall is the one i was looking at. Tony, your final call. Im looking for insite to beat Clinical Trials and im buying the call vertical spread, going out to july and buying the 100 115 call spread on incisite we are back next friday bonus hour of fast is coming up next. Im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Announcer options action sponsored by think or swim by k ameritrade tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well except now, youre binge learning. For a limited time, get up to 800 when you open and fund an account. Call 8663009417 or visit tdameritrade. Com learn. Its got all my favorite shows turn oright there. Boom, i wish my Trading Platform worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. 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