Begin with the latest flare up in china beijing announcing new security measures in hong kong send iing the hang sang to its worst day in almost five years the move escalate iing tensions with the United States with President Trump threatening quote unquote strong reaction to the crack down so does china become a bigger head wind for the markets . Pete, what do you say . Yeah, it seems like theres a dimpt new story every day that seems to lead us up or down. On literally every day, whether its earnings one day that we focus on unemployment in your opinions. China, another day the virus of course and somebody having sort of a vaccine of some sort or another. Always something leading the markets. What i was encouraged by today, china and the u. S. And some of the issues were going to be facing Going Forward it seems to me like weve shaken that off well its been an impressive ability of the markets we could have slid easily today and down 400 points going into the weekend like a friday or two ago so i was encouraged by that. And im encouraged by the fact that we rsht seeing huge spikes and were seeing this contract ed move. And by the way, i think that everybody wants to focus on the big five not the big five the its biotech theres a lot of different areas giving us a foundation for more upside to come in the future were either shaking off the warnings about china or just not coming to grips with reality jeff, what do you make of what is going on with china whats also interesting is ha the communist party has abandoned giving growth targets, which they normally do some say that could show xi is on his back and feeling cornered here because growth in china is slowing down and he needs to take control over hong kong before what could be a losing election for the communist party in september were seeing Company Earnings here, so i would expegt to me soar mentions can whine. Looks more like it did pretrade deal monetary stimulus reopening progression all these things i dont know in combination if thats going to be enough to drive earnings enough to justify the market where it is right now. If you look over the past 20 years, the correlation between the s p 500 and ford eps estimates is. 9. Since the bottom, we also take about the pain trade being higher the put call ratio is extremely low. Its below. 53 right now now were at the head wind of the 200 Day Moving Average so theres a lot of things i wouldnt be surprised its down from here. Thats a lot for a bear to chew u on. You agree . The vix is a measure of a markets expectation of forward volatility dropped a bit today. Even you know despite this news were coming out of china, but the important thing is that china news day after day after day. The drip of continue to hear the what jeff is talking about is what we should be payipay ing attention so what do you think these Larger Companies are going to look like others arent immune there are a big swath of publicly traded companies that are going to be facing considerable pressure for some period of time and weve had a bounce off the bottom and i feel we have the opportunity might be wanting to tear some of those positions here i can see the bear case at the same time, brian, we know companies are in for a tough road ahead at the same time, i think that the reopening of america has happened probably faster than what a lot of people think im not talking about a complete reopening but all 50 states have reopened to some degree and i would think thats probably a lot faster than what many thought a couple of months ago when we were in the depths of this pandemic. I think thats probably right. Also the fact we were unsure how people were going to react when things reopenede edreopened. When you start to see beaches and parks rope aeopen and they crowded, thats a different story. But to me if i look at the market here, talk iing about chn and the reopening and recovery from the vaccine so the bull case here is that the federal reserves going to pump enough liquidity going to buy enough bonds that companies can ride out the storm however long that takes. The bear case is we get some kind of second wave and or we have a serious kind of trade dispute or deglobalization going on with china. To me, the deglobalization argument is is a la lot, i don if its worse than the virus, but the its b probably a longer term head wind for the market. Thats where we are. The bull and the bear cases and as pete said, every day, theres Something Else driving it. The market is trying to decide investors are trying decide and were at a Decision Point in the market to me, if i look boot mex couple of week, i think thats going to determine what the next six months look like this would be a couple of notable performers amazon, facebook, new highs for both stocks. Really benefitting both the stocks from being you know us being sheltered at home. Are those the sorts of names that carry us through post pandemic, that bridge, do we stick with those internet names, those winners . You know, i think those names but id add a few. We all know the big five they sound great facebook being a part of somewhere in that mix of stocks but its all the verticals that facebook has and we talk about it all the time. But i dont know that everybody always pays attention to the idea that its not, its no l g longer a facebook story of facebook its instagram, messager all the aspects. The shopping element of this whole thing, so theyre doing so many other things as well. Including competing with zoom. So theres all u kinds of different areas that could make that a favor bable move to the upside even from where it is now and i love the Balance Sheet i think thats great and amazons just amazon we know that we all look at the pe and we say oh, boy, thats really high and this and that. But we know the strength of aws and the power theyve got. But theres other areas of the marketplace as well and theres a lot of, for whatever reason, we dont talk as much about the big biotech names. We talk about the smaller ones working on the virus but if you see some of the bigger name, theyve been performing extremely well. The amgens of the world. Some of the names that trade more like a pharmaceutical but i think theres a lot of room to the upside because a lot of these names in various sectors that can power this to the upside so i tend to be more bullish than i think im hearing from a lot of the other guys but a lot has to do with whats working now and what might be working even later as we get further along. As long as things stay positive obviously with whats going on with the pandemic. Well Energy Prices in case you havent noticed ending what has been a strong week on a sour note crude falling 2 the fact china didnt provide a growth chart not helping expectations bk is seeing prices approaching q levels so show us what youre looking at oil at least on brent, kind of take a look at that. The wti charts are screwed up because of those negative prices look what happened with brent crude. Were back at the levels we had from the march 9, 10, that price war when we came over the weekend and all of a sudden, saudi arabia said were going to pump as much possible. So were back up at those levels now when i look at gaps like that r or any technical level, to me, its a map. A sign post. Are we going to have a uturn or s curve. So i say you know what, the economy isnt getting any better if this starts to roll over, to me, theres more signal in Commodity Prices and even copper prices than there are in stock prices about what the economys going to be doing because the Central Banks arent buying commodities. Theyre buying equity equival t equivalen equivalents. Jeff . Its not just oil its other commodities i think its indicative of whats going on in the Global Growth in terms of oil and our exposure to energy, i think ive said it before we dont have a great edge in predicting the direction of the economy. Given my view on Global Growth, its probably sideways to down, but we have some exposure to energy and we would rather be further from the well so we like names like exxon mobil more of the names with reasonable Balance Sheets so if you want exposure na that space, i would prefer names like exxon and something more exposed, but u overall watching the commodities to bks point, it makes sense because theyre trading on their own dynamics so it could be a could tell as it relates to Global Economic growth where would you go on the eck wii theties side for oil jeff was talking about the integratives i think you want to be downstream marketing and refining obviously you know a lot of the Midstream Companies were very hard hit the north american Midstream Companies and i think some of those might be a better play than whats being priced in at the depths of it but of course theyre making a dpood point. The thing is is that oil is trading on fundamentals. Its not a technical issue here. What wr can the oil go Central Banks arent buying oil. Where are they going to put it you need storage to store oil. Continue to see elevated production and not con sunlgts if you look at futures curve for oil, its extremely steep. That is generally a shortterm bearish condition. Thats what we have. Coming up, stimulus checks spurring a surge in stock trading. The one name that attracted the most interest. And roku says things arent getting much better for the company fast moneys back in two. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. I am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. Sawithout evenon yoleaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. New data shows Many Americans put their money to use in the stock market. Trading was a a second or third most popular use for those funds across income brackets. Americas banking between 35,000 and 75,000 increased their trading by 90 compared to the week before they got their check. With this increased activity, how could the broker dealers be setting up how are retail traders setting up when you hear about americans gambling away their stimulus checks, i dont know, makes me a little nervous makes me a little bit nervous as well but i will say that the volumes speak for themselves its absolutely off the charts if you just go over the last couple of weeks, we were averaging about 31 million contracts per day. When i started on cnbc back in 07, we averaged about 10 million contracts per day. Gives you an idea of how crazy things have become last year, we had a record volume of a little over 20 million per day. This year, were run ining on about 27. 5 per day so there is volume there weve seen a lot of this throughout the pandemic. Im not so positive that i would be encouraged by the idea of these checks going if thats whats happening here. But we certainly are seeing the volumes. Its there, mike can speak to this as well ive never seen so much options in my life with and you could see it in the numbers. They dont lie its amaze iing how much is out there, but people understand what theyre doing though because there better be educated the options world can be a very, vi violent thing and you have to understand what your risks are, so e hopefully they do the stock market falls into the same category. This is money people should be willing to lose completely and feel comfort bable in doing so in theory, on i dont know line brokers should see a benefit except for the minor detail its been a race to row when it camera comes to trade commissions. Thats right and i guess my tame is less scientific. Ive gotten phone calls and texts from friends asking about getting into the market. I dont know if thats necessary stimulus check related but you are seeing it and it might sound silly, but our buddy, dave s a massive following that younger demographic and i think that day trading hes doing actually might have had an impact in people signing up. Looking at the stocks of some of these companies, e trade has held up the best but u its bumping up against and down sloping its 200 day. I would prefer a name like schaub their growth is quicker and they have the size and scale. You see them gobbling up Companies LikeTd Ameritrade looking at Investment Assets and others i prefer a company like that, the size and scale so i think all things considering, with schwab being down 30 , if i was looking across the board and assuming this is going to have an impact, id choose schaub. I guess maybe some have been drawn to the market, youfr h youve had this rally, wu then youve had the rally then the market shakes, i wonder how sticky some accounts are sx. Yep, absolutely we were wondering what exactly are these people trade something we looked and we were see iing h stocks that showed the most interest robin track which tracks data from robin hood found that over the past month, these are stocks most traded. Aurora cannabis, moderna, delta, General Electric seeing the biggest increase Users Holding those stocks looks like people are drawn to stocks that swing wildly are any of these interesting to you . Interesting on the short side, maybe. Certainly wouldnt be a buyer. Heres the reason why people are trading these things i dont know that its stimulus related. Its that people that would be preoccupied to and from the office and worrying about work are sitting at home, the markets are movering around which makes it tempting and i think theres a little video gaming thats going on so they have the time to open up these accounts. They have to time to sit there and watch the market the markets moving around so theyre picking the most volatile stocks and i can understand that. The thing is is a company like xwr ge, people have this impression, the companys been around for 100 years and its going to continue to be around without recognizing that some companies could have significant or permanent impairments. Some of the ore Companies Like the bioteches, thats really a really speculative game and no assurance number one, theyre going to find vaccines r or number two, that theyre going to monotize it really. Other than maybe getting a little bit of good will out of it we heard what biden had to say today talking about making sure that if there was a vaccine available, they would make it available free of charge that suggests there would be pricing pressure so even if you could identify one, maybe not the best opportunity i would urge people to stick with the industries on a broad basis if just starting out we have breaking news on united airlines. Phil two days after uniteds annual meeting, they have executive compensation the new ceo will be paid a base salary of 1 million its important to note that both of them will be forgoing their salaries for the rest of this year thats a commitment they made back when everything started with covid19. That b kopt through the rest of this year and also their bonuses will be continued upon united employees receiving Profit Sharing checks clearly thats not going to happen so they wont receive a bonus until the front line employees are once again receiving Profit Sharing checks and thats, people would be stunned if that happened this year melissa, back to you theres been a lot of scrutiny on the airlines specifically united. Didnt they unveil plans to start laying off employees, the first day possible after getting the bailout money, october 1st is the date . Well, they said that they plan with at least 30 of their management and administrative staff that starting october 1st, they would go on with furloughing up to 30 of those employees then clearly if traffic and if business does not rebound substantially by the end of september, youre likely going to see cuts in terms of furloughs with pilots, flight attendants, et cetera. Although when he talks d kirby, he said we want o work the unions if we can work out a system where they have few uer hours and therefore we can keep people and not have to furlough them, that would be preferable thank you phil lebeau with the latest on united airlines. You take government money then the government will have a say in how you do things and i think thats what the airlines are coming up against at this point. Yeah. Imagine that right . Imagine that somebody gives you money and they want to tell you what to do its shocking. To go back to in terms of f whats going to happen in the fall, which is so many unknowns, Warren Buffett sold the airlines the number of things that can happen between now and october are so diverse, its hard to put are we going to have a second wave will people get back on planes will airlines survive through this i wouldnt touch the airlines with petes money. All right coming up, and you like pete, too. Its been a rough week for roku. Why the surge for the stock may be over plus well be back with a special hour of fast money at 6 00 p. M stay with us these days, its anything but business as usual. Thats why working together is more important than ever. At t is committed to keeping you connected. So you can keep your patients cared for. Your customers served. Your students inspired. And your employees closer than ever. Our network is resilient. Our people are strong. Our job is to keep your business connected. Its what weve always done. Its what well always do. To phil with the latest on her hertz. Said hertz may file for chapter 11 as soon as tonight or in the next couple of days. If it seems like youve heard this headline in the last week r or two its because we have. Tonl to hertz make its payment say no, were still going so this is the pressure youre seeing out of hertz after hours. Down about 13 dow jones citing sources saying we could see a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing from hertz as soon as tonight. Melissa, back to you phil, thank you you the stock down almost 16 brian, i guess we shouldnt be surprised necessarily. You see less traffic on airplanes and youve got fear of people renting the cars when they get out whats interesting they are selling off their fleet. And so phils talking about how they these debt payments they go from week to week. How many cars can they sell. Can they pay the bills if the answer is no, lets shut the light off. For me, i wouldnt touch it. All right, again, the stock is down now about 19 . Time for the final trade lets go around the horn jeff, what do you say . I think its worth taking a look at lowes. The stocks traded lower than home depot, maybe for good Reason Online sales are looking bet erat worth a look at lowes mike. Yeah, i think i like microsoft doesnt sound like i like any stock, but i like microsoft. This is a company thats doing everything right fundamentally, theyve got a lot of tail winds and options arent expensive. Got a crazy one not a name i talk about often but the Cloud Services numbers were unbelievable. I think this is going higher all right 6 00 special is up next. Stay tuned happy friday options action fans another big show first up, carter might have found a true marble. Plus, as the saying goes, you dont know what you dont know mike takes a step back and dives deep inside the calculations and implications of implied volat e volatility find out u why you might want to review the implied fundamentals. Semistocks