In just a few moments, we will be joined by the double line ceo jeffrey gundloch well get his take on all things market lets check to board to see where it stands. Russell 2,000 having have strong day as well. Everybody, its good to see you. Its a big week. How much is riding on it, do you think . Well, i would say here, i think this rally is going to get exhausted bit. I think were at a point many the rally where a lot of thing vs to go right in order for this to continue. This has really been driven by macro news we have to look at fundamentals. The expectations right now are a strong recovery starts in the third quarter. Youve got the major averages have done incredibly well, 30 plus . Nasdaq, you go inside the nasdaq, facebook, amazon, alphabet 25 and some cases higher than that tech better live up to those gains. These earnings, this week all of those heavy hitters are coming down the pike. They better live up to this v shape bounce that the market has given us, right . Technology seems exhausted, relative to the other sectors. Theres so many different cross currents in the market now thats making even though were at the highs its very confusing. I point out oil. Oil is down 26 pushing below 13 once again youre having to find other sectors to carry the market higher and theres not much trust in the Investment Community for its rallying on a day like today finals are up 3 ive got my jpmorgan, black rock, msci im not really willing to step out and increase significantly in financials. Its a very difficult market now because youve Seen Technology has that exhaustion feel to it you have volatility which is collapsing volatility is collapsing and youve got dollars that with the s p as i keep pointing out at 2875, it competes against credit opportunities. Were in a tough place a good place but a tough place pete, you have its such a high concentration in these tech names. In terms of what they mean to to the overall market goldman sachs, concentration above the tech bubble peak the five largest stocks and this is a point that we made last week as well the five largest stocks. Microsoft, apple, google account for 20 of the s p 500 market cap. Exceeding 18 in march of 2000 highest concentration in more than 30 years. That means the pressure is on this week, doesnt it . It is absolutely, scott. Theres no doubt about it. The reality is these are the names of the power thats moved back up to the upside. You talked about it, 20 its an amazing thing that small of a group can have that much of a move in the asbestos luts markets. Its incredible. I would also say that, this concentration is interesting but there is something outside of that of obviously percent wise its different. We have seen the financials start to show a bit of strength in getting off of those lows after the earnings session earnings releases. What id like seeing if you look at the chips base right now, the semiconductors and steve weiss and i were talking about this, the reality is those names are scorching to the upside as well. There are other aspects of the market that i think are contributing we all know its narrow five right now. Thats concerning. Joe brought up volatility. I have to jump on it real quick. Were still in a high volatil y volatility its low and we love seeing it near 32. Where would you like to see the vix be the opportunities have been there and mike pillson has been talking about this use the volatility it means you can own stocks that are quality names and some of those that are maybe a little bit less than that high quality name if youre getting those incredible premiums when volatility was anywhere between 40 and 70, thats a great opportunity. I was just taking a look again because we talked about this as well but when i look at what ive got in terms of my own portfolio, im looking at stocks about 36 positions i went have having six positions to close to 20 there are more opportunities with the options coming in theres plenty of stocks where you have great premiums where we go back to january vix was trading 13, 14, 15 we are all looking for volatility we couldnt find it. We got it now and youve got to use it if tech is tapped out as joe is suggesting, what takes the baton. Is anything capable of stepping up like tech has i disagree with the premise i dont think tech is toed out i think today its a little slow youre seeing lags but i dont see it to etopped out let me give you a statistic i found amazing. It was a bloomberg article where it was written in 2018 and said over the last three decades only 1. 3 of all Global Equities accounted for all the gains. You can go back to what david and i i think its an important number to look at. Mike wilson cuts back concentration. We have been talking about that for years already. We have even before. Even before this whole thing happened we have had this conversation repetitively in some cases for the last years number of years. It has been a heavier concentration. Tech is the largest part of the s p. Youre going to have over weightings in those names but it is even more concentrated names, steve, that have led this market back into a v and has even perpetuated the conversation of a disconnect between wall street and main street. The how in the world can the market be where it is because main street with main street where it is and you say, i look at amazon, apple, microsoft, go google and facebook and that tells you the story. Right here is how explain it im confused also. I look on the news you read the papers and you see food lines that are miles long having that kind of poverty, that kind of desperation, tragedy is inconsistent with the market marching higher here is how i try to explain it, try to reason it out which is that moneys got to find place to go. We talked about equities being the right investment because the ten year was trading at 150. 1. 5 yield. That was before this now we have the tenyear bouncing between. 55,. 65 so youre going to go into equities youre not going to go into all equities youre going to go where theres growth you take the growth kpaecompani and marquee names and move them higher we have lots of oh stother stoc that are participating i dont think tech is topped out because of the article we got in the journal, no surprise apple is cutting back production you take a look at the apple eco system sky works, micron. They are all higher and didnt tick down at all today if thats tired tech, i want more of it i hear you. Theres a interesting point today as well as you sort of talking about where the money has been going relative to where it may go in the weeks ahead michael, mike wilson of Morgan Stanley has a provocative thought on that. Its not a surprise the money has found a home in the kinds of stocks we just mentioned these large cap, marquee names you see them in the lights we totally get it. Mike wilson suggests once you get to the end of the downwards revision in earnings, youre going to have a rotation youre going to have the stocks that have underperformed the smaller cap ones the more cyclical ones these big guys are going to revert back because youre going to get to the end of a cycle of earnings revisions youll start to think about at some Point Recovery and all of those laggards will be worthy of your money over pouring money into those big names do you agree with that sure. Absolutely i think it makes plenty of sense. I think hes 6 to 12 months too early, scott meaning, look, were still going through earnings revisions lower and lower. Weve got 80 of the companies saying were not going to stick even come up with our forecast now. Were not going to give you projections right now. We have to see where this decline actually stops before we start thinking about how everything gets started again. Right now, markets, like companies, make me nervous when i hear that a company is priced for perfection, when one of our analysts says this company is firing on all cylinders, that gives me pause whats more likely to happen Something Else new to go right or something to go wrong theres a great disconnect what were seeing in the economy, what were seeing in markets and with these five large companies, its not only that they are the nifty names, the hot stocks they are still able to make money and execute in this market environment. They still got earnings coming in those companies have performed well were seeing a market that still clinging to bull market psychology were still dismissing bad news. Were still embracing good news. Were looking for this to be over and get better with all of the data skrcontrary data stari us in the face i think mike wilson is right here over time i think hes very early. Companies are real earnings are still a good place to be liz, Piper Sandler still sticking with their s p target year end 3600 i know thats a lot higher than you think we can go in any scenario does that make sense 3600 no. I dont think 3600 makes sense when i talked at top of show about this rally being exhausted, i think well see a bit of rotation in leadership. One of the places where i do agree with mike and i talked about this the last time i was on the show, small cap does lead us out once we start to recover. I dont know that were going to see that rotation clearly right now. I do think especially in the tech space youre going to see a change of leadership between market cap levels and small cap probably is stronger on the way out of this. If we expect a 20 to 25 hit, 25 hit to earnings in 2020, that means the s p is trading at 22 to 23 times 2020 earnings which seems outrageous theory and math tells us that doesnt make sense but it could go on for a while and it doesnt have to make mathematical sense. I do think were going to start to see a bit of a rotation here. You think, joe, that works, rotation, a mike wilson rotation we see small caps are out performing today maybe the narrative is trying to get a bit more positive on a reopen youre going to see the pressure continue, joe, to ratchet up to get some semblance of a reopening plan in place for the 50 states. Not all will be equal. Not all time frames will be similar but the call, the narrative now is going to be more towards reopen than staying shut let me be clear i never used the words topped out or tapped out. I said you said tired. Exhausted i used the words tapped out in a sense its a similar thought, right . Lets no go over semantics here. Youre making the point these things have run pretty darn far and may need a drink of water and sit down on the side of the road thats my implication as well by using the word tapped out. Thats fair were talking about the same thing. Thats fair im still long amazon, apple, microsoft. What im trying to emphasize, it gets much harder from here if theres a rotation. Money will go into other sectors. Im already in health care i emphasize health care over the last couple of weeks i dont trust industry, the industrials. Doin i dont trust a large component of the financial sector. I have less confidence than ive had in the prior month getting behind strong positions and technology and health care thats where i know im going to have cash Risk Companies companies that will quickly return to Earnings Growth with strong visibility. Im not confident when i look at these companies that potentially we make the rotation into about the quality of earnings that they will present and the economic environment overall thats where i say its harder and where investment dollars compete. Will compete at that point with opportunities in the credit market weiss i agree with joe. It is harder for large stocks to go up. Theres so much capital thats been raise real estate over the last coupl of weeks its astounding. To me, this is like when youre a teenager, your parents left and you threw a party. Its the same thing in the market valuation has gone away. Companies have pulled in their guidance for the rest of the year theres really no valuation m metr metric when liz quotes that number, its ridiculously high the liquidity is going to help and is helping i was thinking, about catalyst get the market down. Catalyst get it up i do think the right thing is for the economy to reopen gradually starting actually yesterday because the damage is long term. I said, we may look back in ten years and say the wrong thing to do was to keep the economy closed as long as we did for a buc bunch of reasons i dont know what they are markets look forward they discount and the good thing about those numbers when we see what happened in 08, we recovered. The people that invest in the market say, its never as bad as it seems in terms of the market. The market will look forward i think were looking forward a lot more in faith. It all depends on what glass you want to look at, half full, half empty you could say new york state, Governor Cuomo comes on today and says the deaths are coming down still not fast enough but they are coming down. At the same time you have 1,000 new cases every day in new york state. That plays into the conversation of reopening we can reopen because the number of deaths are coming down. We have bents the curve. The curve is coming down if you reopen you still have to face the facts that you have 1,000 new cases every day. You still have cases every single day right its question of where you go. Im still not going to buy the airlines im still not going to buy the hotels and resorts theres a lot im not going to buy. Im not going to buy jcpenney debt you have widen the wealth gap in this country it will take a lot longer to recover from ill buy lulu. Ais ill buy target. Am i going to go down the food chain and the answer is no im not. That will be with us for a long time its tragic whats happened. Its not affecting the market. Pete, those are youre going to continue to be super selective in the kinds of stocks you buy. Are you going to start buying industrials any time soon, pete . Probably not at this point in time i think there are some names that i am watching boeings of the world and so forts. Right now, i see better opportunities in other places. Ill give you one example of something i haddadded last week. Sheldon adelson talked about how different the markets are and how different it is in the asian markets versus the u. S. Markets. As they have slowly gone through their process and gone through things far different than everybody, than so many parts of the world that these guys have almost gotten used to this because of that, he was saying that they will be able to get up and get these things going a lot quicker. Las vegas sands is one of names last week. I was waiting and we had some gigantic option activity in there. Today very lucky its moving higher if you looked even further down the loroad, if things start to open up and we know how much of the percentage of the business for wynn is, that gives you an insight out there and you look back and say whats next here. I agree with steve i think the airlines are a really difficult call now. Im not interested all that much in industrials im not interested in the airlines very uncomfortable about that. We have no idea how that process is going to roll out that was 140 on the lows. Take a look. Absolutely skyrocketed to the up side gives you an idea of how hungry people are they have absolutely started to feast on a name like lulu. This is these guys are in the cyber world. Going to be a much more selective environment, is it not . I think no question i think those companies as we have been saying, you have your quality trade up and you go with stronger Balance Sheets. Invest with an eye that this will take longer its an american characteristic. Its one of the things i like. Continue social distancing over the summer things like lulu and things that are able to make money and continue to survive and thrive while the rest of corporations are shutting down, you have to look at. You get a company like raytheon. I kind of like some of these smaller, bigger and smaller Industry Companies you can buy them at a good price. Bl bl Balance Sheets are solid these are companies that will allow you to see tomorrow through difficult markets. If we go through another difficult downturn which i fully expect lets look even further into tomorrow, if we could as michael farr suggest liz young, theres an interesting article over the weekend that i say just 4 of investors in barons big money poll are bearish on stocks for 2021. I realize were a ways off from 2021 but know the market looks forward. Maybe its not looking ahead to 2021 quite yet its looking a handful of months ahead instead of a bigger chunk than that. What does that tell you . Just 4 in a barons poll are negative on stocks for 2021. Are we really going to be back to quote, unquote normal in 2021 its in line with the client conversations im having i talk to clients 7 to 10 times a week on calls and almost every single time somebody says where are the opportunities. Where am i going to find return . Last week i had a client say if i want to be more aggress iive than that, where do i go here . People are looking for bullish opportunities. People are optimistic. My constant response is this is a time to be disciplined, not heroic this is not a time to start digging into deep value stocks and go after the thing that might be cheap it might be cheap for a reason and might get cheaper. I do think the market is looking out even into 2021 i think the market looks out about 6 to 12 months in future we are optimistic that things will get better. The period of time between now and then is not going fo to be easy were probably going to see some chop during these next few months i think the risk outweighs the reward in the next one to three months once we get beyond that time frame, if we can stomach it, things will improve. Were going to take a quick break. You can reach our experts as well you can go to cnbc. Com halftime. You can tweet us as well still ahead, doubleline ceo joins us today well talk to him about all things markets halftime is back right after this its a challenging market. Edward jones is well aware of that. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Ever somethings gone mogotten into the office. M, i hear you. Feels like theres no barriers between departments now. Servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. So were working 24 7 toected maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Vrjts just moments ago, new york officials cancelled that states president ial primary scheduled for late june due to coronavirus concerns Governor Andrew Cuomo says he will extend the states pause virus restrictions in many but not all parts of the state some area could see some easing if key criteria are met. 15th is when the pause regulation expire statewide. I will extend them in parts of the state but in some parts of the state some regions you could make the case that we should unpause. The hospital ship is getting ready to leave new york city after discharging its last covid patient. However, it treated only about 180 patients the comfort is set to depart later this week. The head of the World Health Organization says he is deeply concerned about the pandemics disruption of normal Health Services especially for children he says the pandemic is far from over and countries need to Work Together to stop shortages of vaccines against other diseases. As always, you can get more on our coronavirus coverage by going to cnbc. Com. Back to you. Thank you lets answer your questions now. Joe, we come to you first from daniel why do you use december 18 lows as a benchmark for prices . Its very important look at relative performance and it is targeting a selective area which is 2346. Thats the s p december of 2018 lows you want to see the stocks that are able to maintain support above that and not trade below those are the stocks that as you defined before can sit and rest while someone hands them a drink of water those are the types of stocks that dont have to get off the track and go inside. All right, steve, come to you. Wants to know your thoughts on baba does it have momentum to catch up with amazon thats a good question. The answer is no, it will never catch up to amazon the reason being amazon is a u. S. Domicile company. Baba is a cayman and hong kong company. Accounting is not the same youre not going to get the same kind of multiple its not growing as fast as amazon its trying to get the additional leverage. The answer is no i own both im a young investor, i have 30 years before i need my money. Are treasuries worth buying at these yields first of all, kudos to you starting early over your investment time horizon the chances of treasuries producing a ton of returns, you do is own a more diversified bond portfolio that that can offset the risks. Michael to you from stewart where do you see mondalese over the next year . I like them for the next year its one of the stocks i own its a 20 discount to the peer group. Its still earning money as people are eating at home. I think it will move with the markets and may outperform if we see further market weakness. All right lets do a round two stones throw from where you are right noi. What do you think of 3m. Its an all minnesota round here it really is. I like it, scott i own the stock. They have great cash flow and you look at the yield of 4 . I like the diversity of their businesses they were in front of everybody in terms of the mass. Any thoughts on peleton i bought it the numbers came out on friday were showing big growth theres an eightweek wait maybe one of those is pete hes getting a little big sitting in his man cave. Okay. I thought you had another thought there. J joe. Your tone was sort of on the up i hear you. I was waiting for pete to respond. I read joe. Dominos. Is it a buy . Dominos, it is a buy. Back to daniels question before regarding december of 2018 its a v stock im looking at it right now. Dominos never took out december of 18 lows reached an all time high of 387 back on the 22nd ill never try the pizza youve never tried it, ever no. Nope woints ev i wont even order it now while were in lockdown. Im with you on that. Its a new york thing ipse t i see the pizza youre making on social media you have to tripe it once. I think pete had enough for all of us. Can a market be too liquid . First of all, i eat all pizza. I dont discriminate against pizza. Market cannot be too liquid right now because its protecting us from this becoming a huge financial crisis. Over time, what its going to do is lull us into a false sense of security we need to make that transition out of some of the support and that transition will be messy. All right thank you. Energy etfs again. Bob is tracking them in our etf edge bob. Every day, scott. The uso. Thats the big oil etf in the news today announcing they are changing the waiting of their contract they are selling the june contracts now. They are just investing in contracts in july and for the rest of the year all out they are laddered all the way out and into june 2021 they are into june 2021 contract they bet in either direction about where oil may be going that bank rupts si filing. Were seeing some moves here thats down 4 market cap weighted index of Small Cap Energy stock the other one is xcs thats the spider oil. Thats an equal weight of these oil and Gas Equipment companies. Also down 4 finally on separate note, into gold that gld, that highest shares outstanding people buying into that having to create new shares since 2013. We appreciate that. We have more etf edge coming up. A halftime excusive interview with doubleline ceo. We get his take on the mark, the fed, the economy and more. Dont miss it. You can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app. Halftime is back after this. Its only human to find inspiration in nature. And also find answers. Our search to transform. Farm waste into renewable natural gas led chevron to partner with california bioenergy. Working to provide an alternative source of power. For a cleaner way forward. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. We sure did. We have moved a far place from that now from an equity side and credit is acting better. The fact we rallied so far back from an equity standpoint. What is your general view of the markets right now relative to what you were talking about that you were just referencing. This disorder that we had in large swaths of the market to where we are today yeah. The market pretty much recovered because of the fed on april 9th and taking the bold step of violating the Federal Reserve act of 1913. The Federal Reserve cannot buy Corporate Bonds. I know they are technically not buying it but they are clearly doing it by slight of hand since april 9th, the lqdetf has opinion meandering lower that was their high day. Jnk, one of the high yield etfs, same thing youre right these things are way off theriry lows the prices got back to within 3 of their highs thanks to the fed move after a huge decline. The fed action has swooped that up jnk has retraced similar to the stock market about half of its decline. All of these markets are looking quite tired these days the sentiment shift should have investors concerned. I was watching a segment on cnbc this morning that people were looking for aggressive opportunities. The time for aggressive opportunities was march 23rd, not april 27th i think the markets are really celebrating the idea that the cases are slowing down and talk about opening up maybe even new york city and all that stuff i would caution investors. Test, test, test thats going to be the answer to all of our problem and open the economy. Theres a catch phrase and those things are better than not having those things. Many people dont understand the wide ranging ramifications of the societal shift thats going on the cares act with its ppp of payroll check protection it gives many people a lot more money for not working than what they had when they were at their job before they lost their job or got furloughed. I have family members who said this is maiamazing. I lost my job but making more than when i was working. That makes the Cost Reduction of reopening the businesses really prohibitive. A lot of Small Businesses barely make it week to week prior to covid and if you increase their cost structure, its almost impossible for them to open. The restaurant is one idea most make five and they are super lucky. Take 50 of their tables away, sure the cost structure might be reduced. But theres no way they can make any money. Im certainly in the camp that we are not out of the woods. The opposite happened. Do you think is that off the table now retesting the low because of the fed no, its not at all i think a retest of the low is very plausible a lot of us have been around a lot almost fell victim to our historical experience in expecting that relatively of dow jones 19,000 industrial average. I dont think that will happen i think that people dont understand the magnitude of social im not going to say unrest but social unease, at least thats going to happen when you have 26 million plus people have lost their job we lost every single job that we created since the bottom in 2009 every single job is gone theyre not the same jobs im just talking about counts. Unemployment rate is worse we lost all the jobs the policies we put in place, zero Interest Rates, were back at them again. Investors and citizens start to ask themselves, we fill out the weird policies of 2008, 2009 were supposed to fix things. Now were doing them on steroids are we ever going to leave these policies it took us 12 years to get back to these policies. Whats it going to take next time to get back to them five years these probably have a halflife. I know the virus is the catalyst for all this stuff its really been revealed. Ive seen numerous people come on cnbc over the course of the last year and point out that a large fraction of americans dont have any rainy day fund. They cant absorb an unkpexpectd expense of a few hundred dlaer. Dollars. I have to see that happen. I have to believe this may have traumatized a lot of people. We may get back to a quint notion called saving like we used to do years ago the problem with these bail outs, they are top heavy thats the only practical way to administer these things. Its difficult to scramble and try to supply rescue relief that sets through the channels that are open which tend to be large corporations and those groups that are well connected. Youre referring in part to the 13 or so publicly traded companies that accessed that money and many of whom arenow giving it back it was far from a perfect Environment Companies like the ones that were taking money are the ones youre speaking about, some of them thats a subset im talking about the massive boil o bailouts the Airline Industry is kind of the poster child it really is i think people should be frustrated that these airline spent a huge fraction of the cash flow on buy backs in recent years and now are being bailed out to a degree of cash thats higher than the amount of bought back the dollar amount bought back its like the government, you have these companies that leverage themselves up to a hilt and were not very well managed there. Just push, push, to get the stock price up and get earnings fjly engineered. Now were buying back, in saens, i know this isnt the case but in a sense they bought back 45. 5 billion of stock now were buying it back at a profit at a higher value. You have company you have a lot of company in that criticism. You could bring up carnival us cruise line as well. Your point is taken. Youre not the only person raising the issue of bailouts. What they mean to the fundamentals of how capitalism operate. Im not sure you followed the conversation i had over the last couple of weeks with chamath who raised similar concerns about buyback. I did listen to that conversation i thought it was really fascinating and really food for thought and debate its not just bailouts its not just buy backs. There shouldnt be buybacks for companies that are repeatedly needing assistance thats ridiculous. Beyond that, what about the way people live their personal the e their lives with houses, borrowing money all the time to go on pretty lavish and extravagant vacations and buying really expensive phones and all this stuff i think we should limit think as a society of limiting this debt based motivation. You know a friend of mine unbelievably had a child and the child when they were 6 months old received a credit card application. In the mail. Its really when i was a teenager, first was coming of age, i remember getting my first credit card. And had to apply for it and couldnt believe they accepted me and actually a weird feeling of pride like a credit card, im deserving. You know i qualify. I have sort of made it in society. But this has gone wild where everything is based upon borrowing money. Cashout refinancing car loans many, many years in term i think we should think seriously about demotivating people to just constantly borrow and be in a position where when the downturn happens and always eventually happens theyre forced in a situation of being destitute, i think. That could be a way that maybe develops on the other side of this is a fundamentally way to think about peoples lives but that also has a ramification on the economy on the other side and growth. Its very positive for the long term. Unfortunately, you know, when you finally have to take the medicine of getting off of a lifestyle that basically cant afford you have to shift down to a lower level and thats why i think were looking at a lower low in the stock market because these things are going to these things are going to make themselves known with a lag. Like what about State Colleges an universities . Reading articles about what if they dont reopen . I know that that might be a pessimistic case, of course, but if they dont reopen, the State College and universities theyre not going to be able to survive. We are talking about colleges, universities, potentially going basically closing down because of financial reasons why can people understand the state and local government consequences of whats happening here i was listening to the radio and mayor garcetti said the city of los angeles is in the worst Financial Condition in history but three months ago it was pretty good so this unemployment and the tax hit and then the tax holidays and dont pay your rent, the way that filters through the system, theres a lot of really serious structural damage thats done and i think nose that follow the stock market averages day by day and see that the Corporate Bond market recovered, i dont think they understand what its like out there in the real world where go ahead. I understand. Im sorry. It is just our time always goes too fast and we dont have that much left. I want you to comment on what the fed has done i know you tweeted specifically about the buying of the high yield etf. I was reading an article in the journal today on the extraordinary and unprecedented measures the fed has taken, jeffrey. There was a quote of janet yellen i wanted you to react to if you would she said of all the extraordinary measures and the things that the fed has done, and still, frankly, may do, this is why the Federal Reserve is invented to do emergency lending in a crisis. You know, others made the comment, too, maybe no one wanted to be in this position but we are and thus we need desperate times call for december trat measures and this janet yellen says what the fed is here for. What is your reaction to that . I think the fed is not created to just be a fireman you know when theres a fire. I think the fed is supposed to put Fire Prevention measures in. I mean, the fed is not supposed to just wait for you know, gun Interest Rates don at zero for long periods of time to not putt up reserve requirements after 1996, irrational xub rans. There used to be conservatives in the fed saying the job of the fed is to take away the punch bowl when the party is rolling we had 129month expansion which is the longest in u. S. History and in and of itself tells you something unnatural is happening. Never had an expansion ever that looked like the one of this since the financial crisis and now completely erased. Now that you put yourself in this position, fed, yeah, i guess you have to reactive things because if they hadnt done anything in march i think you just would have had a total collapse the bond market in march, in the cmbs market, there was no bid. Simply couldnt much worse than 2008 or early 2009. Mush worse thats why its comingalcal that people talk about how the market looking a little shaky they didnt have any idea what was coming there was no bid the fed had, had to do something in reaction to that and certainly came in strong but its unfortunate that they people like janet yellen dont want to take responsibility for is also why we got towards this problem with the very low Interest Rates and, you know, the treasury departments to blame, too, because if im talking about the web cast over and over again, theres no Economic Growth in 2019 it was all debt. National debt grew more than nominal gdp. A lot of things people dont understand is 2019 Economic Growth was basically all consumption. It was all Consumer Debt 90 of the gdp in 2019 is consumption. Usually around 70 of gdp. But in 2019 it was basically only game in town is consumption. What happens now going back to 70 of gdp in other words, consumption drops. It goes back to what sure. We were in an environment as you say, right we had manufacturing was dislocated because of the trade war, overly reliant on the consumer and consumption and now locked the consumption metric into a room. I have three minutes left, jeffrey. One of the last times we spoke you said several weeks ago that you closed out the last of your s p shorts thats right. Dow at 19,000. Do you have more on now to take out the lows . Actually, i did just put a short on the s p at 2863 so at this level i think the upside down side is very poor because i see really, really tough sledding to try to get the s p above lets just pick a round number, 3,000. I dont think it makes it to 3,000 but it could you know 2980 looks like a tough level to me so i think this is a bad, bad trade location i think we have downside easily to the lows or beyond and the upside looks like 3 or 4 im not nearly where i was in february where i was very, very short but i do i have started to build partial short around these levels. So what then is your best trade would you say, what is the best trade for our viewers listening to you an follow you intently what is the best thing to do in the market today is short the s p the best idea you have or is there something on the credit side or Something Else commodity related . Well, no. I think right now investors are supposed to be in high liquidity. Im 60 cash at this present time you know down from 100 cash where i was in the middle of march because of my positions on the short side but i dont like much of anything right here the markets have all adjusted higher and commodities, the problem we saw that negative oil price and because commodities is a totally screwed up market with the speculators that cant take delivery the people just speculating an they have absolutely no ability they dont know how to take delivery if i think its happening in the most spectate slave commodity markets, i think i talked about on the webcast, a tale of two sinks, i talked about how it bothers me how much speculation there seems to be in paper or gold a lot of people made money on gold and has a good trade for a past couple of years but what if the people who are speculating on the long side of gold actually decide one day to take delivery im not sure what would happen because im not sure theres enough gold to deliver into the paper long so i just think that the markets need to be seriously reconsidered and maybe regulated more in terms of whos allowed to be long and short i think its a dangerous market on the speculation side. Jeffrey, the time went too fast it always does lets revisit this conversation in the weeks ahead i do appreciate your time very much today you be well. Okay. You, too judge, thanks. Jeffrey gundlach. Ill see you tonight at 7 00 p. M. Ill hand it to kelly evans with our coverage hi, kelly. Welcome to the exchange, everybody. Stocks are in rally mode on optimism of reopening the economy. The dow up 291 points. About 1. 3 gains across the board and with the week left, the s p is having a best month since 1991 up about 39 points to 2875 today. Lets check on oil, though once again the focus as the june, july