It is up 25 , but still well below 15 a barrel on a supply glut in the u. S. And around the world. And as Congress Passes that 480 billion relief package to keep the Paycheck Protection Program running, td bank has promised some 26,000 Small Business loans. The ceo is going to join us in a few moments and tell us how he did it kelly, over to you all right, tyler, thanks. Todays rebound is led by tech stocks again they were under pressure yesterday. Lets get to bob pisani for more on the rally bob . And like i said, the last hour, threetoone advancingtodeclining stocks, thats a nice move up. But this is really in a sense tech and even mega cap rally the five biggest stocks on the s p 500, huge gains here facebook is up 7 . Google is up 4 . Microsoft, apple, amazon look at these moves up the other bigger five, berkshire, walmart, only one, Procter Gamble were down when you get nine of the top ten moving up, the s p is going to move, even if the other ones dont do much at all this is a megacap rally that weve been seeing. Belief in the economy reopening. You can just see it in the movement in some of these sectors. So the Restaurant Business is just on fire, again, today particularly the higherend stuff, the ruth chris of the world, the darden restaurants, bloomin brands, brinker international, which owns chile, all doing really well. Energy stocks are remarkably stable the last couple of days, with all the craziness in the futures contracts. Actually, these stocks have done fairly well here apache and hess, some of the other ones like devin, all very stable in the last several days, and modestly to the upside whats not doing so well is the retailers. Theyre continuing to drop and move to the downside, chicos, kohls, gap, an berabercrombie some winners and losers. The market is trying to differentiate right now, in the last couple of days. Guys, back to you. Tyler . All right, robert, thank you very much. Well talk a lot more about retail with a ubs analyst later this hour. Lets go meantime to the bond market, where yields are moving higher for a change. The tenyear yield, though, remaining well below 1 . And Rick Santelli is on the case hi, rick hi, tyler and youre exactly correct were up five basis points, because we really hit the market yesterday, lots of bids pushing yields down to 57. Were up a handful of basis points but if you look at a chart, starting on march 1st, we are surfing along the bottom 54 is the alltime low yield close. The question is, will yields rise, can they get above 1 . In a couple of sessions, we may see yields look up lets look at the spreads between tens and bunds in europe thats almost 100. Theyre darned close to the narrowest, closest together theyve been in six years. That chart starts in early 2014. Now, lets look at bunds the best credit in europe against the italian tenyear and you can see how its widened out. Well, theres a good reason for that italy, spain, everybody is buying up their paper recently, as their yields go up and theyre nervous. Because their economies arent so great and the ecb might not be able to continue to buy their paper through qe but s p global will meet in a couple of days and theres a good chance that that Investment Grade on tenyear italians might get retrograded. Theyre currently bbb. Which means everybody is buying them with the notion that eventually the ecb, like our fed, will be able to buy less than credit quality, investment credit quality which makes all of this paper interesting again. So what may happen is, the reason our bonds are so good is because theirs are so bad. But if that changes due to ratings, youll see a little less aggressive buying on our tens kelly, back to you thank you, rick tele. As crude oil craters below 15 a barrel, the recordlow prices could wreak havoc on the u. S. Economy. Steve liesman has more on the impact we can expect steve . Reporter kelly, thanks very much the impact of the crash in oil prices is going to be felt far and wide in the u. S. Economy both nationally and most acutely in the big Oil Producing states. Weve gotten to the point in this country that its no longer clear since we produce so much oil, if low oil prices are net positive or net negative for the u. S. Economy now, weve seen prices decline before but never when the u. S. Was the largest producer in the world. I think we peaked at 12 Million Barrels, came down sorry, we peaked at 13, came down to 12 Million Barrels a day. Of all the industries affected by this virus, hard to think of one thats not going to go back to where it was once this crisis passes, because of enduring problems they have nationally, the industry has been a major source of Capital Spending for the u. S. Economy. Selectively in states, its been a source of jobs, investment, and revenue. Looking at a production by states, you can see texas leads the pack i guess i personal would be least worried about texas overall. Though its going to have the sharpest pain from the oil industry slowdown there. But its a very diverse economy moving along youve got the federal waters in the gulf of mexico north dakota, new mexico, oklahoma those are big places for production its not been a particularly, what do you want to say, laborful oil boom in the United States its been really driven by technology so the actual employment numbers, about a million for the whole just, 350,000 in texas 69,000, still, in california, a large contingency there. Pennsylvania would be one of the new entrants there there are two deflationary impulses that come from this one, from Lower Oil Prices also from lost jobs in the oil business and lost Capital Investment hfe writing, quo, the Energy Industry is facing tough times ahead. Were likely to see a wave of bankruptcies in the sector along with job losses. President trump, hes talked about, helping out the oil business, possibly, it could happen through the federal reserve. The question is how much it makes sense for the u. S. In the future, which has relatively Expensive Oil to even be the Worlds Largest producer the choice may be, kelly, either a smaller industry or one we have some form of cooperation with opec. I cant believe i even said that yeah, i cant believe were talking about texas opec and all sorts of different wacky things now. Steve, you mentioned the direct impact isnt that large in texas as a diversified economy, but what is the multiplier impact from oil and gas jobs, both in the state and across the country . Youre really right to bring that up, kelly its an excellent question there are very strong multiplier effects in the oil business, in part because its a capital intensive business in fact, you can see the price of oil, what happens to the price of oil and investment in the oil business, just by following structures in the National Account in other words, the oil business is so up and down, so much volatility, it really does move the overall macro numbers. So you can think about the need for steel all over the place, the need for lubricants, the need for all sorts of things that are involved in the oil business, echoing out and rippling through the u. S. Economy. So this downturn look, were a very diverse economy overall, but think about it this way. We put the economy of saudi arabia and its 12 Million Barrels inside the u. S. Economy. If you dont think were going to have Overall Economic volatility from that, i guess youve got to Pay Attention to that its a new phenomenon. How much oil we produce and the impact of a cratering in oil on the u. S. Economy from that huge production yeah. Steve, thank you, sir. Steve liesman with the fallout tyler . All right so lets talk a little bit more about the fallout from oil prices and how those lower prices have seeped into the markets and whether the markets are fully discounting the effects. Quincy crosby is chief strategist with prudential financial. And ryan detrick is Senior Market strategist with lpl financial. Ryan, let me start with you and pose that question is the market fully discounting the effect of prolonged declines or depression in owl prices . First off, tyler, thanks for having me back it sure doesnt look like it look at today. Energy stocks are up 3 . The last couple of days, Energy Stocks have led as oils crashed. Look at those futures contracts like everyone has talked about the expectation for higher oil is there the last point i want to point out, look at credit spreads on Energy Companies theyve come in significantly. Theyre nowhere as blown out as they were a month ago. What does that mean to the average person listening it means the bond market is not nearly as worried as they were a month ago. Yes, its very concerning, but the market is forward looking. This is the most disconnected mark ive ever seen in my 22 years doing this with the economy and the stock market and the reality is its forward looking and it is saying likely Higher Oil Prices and Energy Stocks with that little blip weve seen recently, thats a small step in the right direction here in the midst of a really rough couple of days for crude oil, obviously so ryan seems to feel that the market is looking forward to higher prices. Thats being reflected both in the futures that were seeing, futures action, and also in the price of those oil stocks. Quincy, what do you think . You know, to echo what ryan said regarding the spreads, credit default swaps were stable you would have thought over the last couple of days, they would just move up, the expense would just rise on the fear of defaults hasnt happened. But one thing thats for sure. It is forward looking. Its looking at americans going back and driving remember, most of the oil, the good portion of it, over 50 , not 100, but over 50 , comes from gasoline. And as you have nearly 20 to 25 of the population starting to be lifted from the restrictions, you can imagine that driving is going to pick up and the prices may move up another thing, were watching germany, were watching austria, and of course, china if those economies begin to inch higher without a second wave, thats a big issue, for any of the markets, it would suggest that our economy can start to open up, perhaps, even with a little bit more strength, le leading to more driving. And thats where youre going to get, i see, a pickup in demand not to mention china we are paying attention. One thing about china win noticed that air quality has started to get worse i hate to say it it sounds perverse its good news its showing that their economy is beginning to turn the corner in terms of activity ryan, let me come back to something you said one of the last times you were here on cnbc, a couple weeks of ago, roughly, the first of april. And you said then, the blast of strength weve seen in the market over the past 15 days isnt a bear market rally, but the hallmark of a new bull market the previous ten times the s p was up this much in 15 days, it was a higher a year later each time im not sure youve persuaded me, because the market feels a heck of a lot too spasmodic to make me feel confident that were in the middle of a new bull market. We may have touched the lows, but it doesnt feel like a sustainable, at least in the shortterm, a sustainable rise tell me whether you still feel the way you did three weeks ago. Well, three weeks ago, obviously, the last time i was on, we had literally today, tyler, we could be looking at the best onemonth return for the s p 500 going back to the great depression, up well over 22 or so, approximately, last month. But you look back at history i know every time is different and headlines are extremely scary, whats going on but you see these blasts of strength the big question, is this a bear market rally or Something Else well, the strength that weve seen with this many stocks participating in the recent rally over the last month would suggest that its not just a bear market rally, that its something more that the history says ten out of ten times, when you have this much strength over a month, stocks are higher 20 on average, a year later, ten out of ten times higher. Thats not something were going to ignore. But believe me, there are so many concerns that are out there. Were not naive to them, but one last thing here. If you look when recessions end, stocks bottom about five months before recessions end. As dark as things seem, stocks tend to do better and they see that light first and we really think they see some light here. Were actively looking for a correction but are the lows of march 23 it . We think they could be we could pull back some. Weve seen some much strength that makes us think something bigger is happening and the market is forward looking and thats a good thing and were not going to ignore that did i persuade you i hear my 401 k in the background saying, i hope hes right, i hope hes right, i hope hes right, just like the little engine that could. Quincy, ryan, thanks very much kelly . Tyler, thank you. Coming up, its tech, energy and utilities leading todays snapback rally well tell you what that means for the market with the dow still down more than 20 from its record highs plus, as the Small Business administration urn leanleash bi of dollars worth of loans, millions are ending up in the hands of publicly trade companies and at least one billion snare. We have those details after this quick break. Stay with us theres tv. And then theres x1, featuring the Emmy Awardwinning voice remote. All the apps you love, including netflix, prime video, youtube and hulu. And the most 4k content. The best Entertainment Experience all in one place. Welcome back, everyone, to power lunch, and our extended Coverage Congress giving the green light last evening to an additional 480 billion rescue package with the majority of that money going to the Small Business administration but so far, at least 240 million of the money previously allocated has gone to publicly traded companies and at least one billionaire. Robert frank has those details hi, robert hey, tyler. Well, nickola Motor Company that was founded and run by billionaire Trevor Milton received 4. 1 million from that ppp program. According to s. E. C. Filings, nickola received the funds through Jpmorgan Chase it doesnt seem like nickola should be short of cash. They make Hydrogen Fuel cell and electric trucks and last month announced a deal to go public on the nasdaq by merging with vectoiq. The deal valued nicola at 3. 3 billion. And its also receiving as part of that deal more than 500 million in fresh cash from investors including fidelity and value act. In an interview on cnbc last month, value act called nikola a quote, 100 billion company in the future Trevor Milton became a billionaire just last year based on his ownership shares. Six months ago, he shelled out 23. 5 million for 2,600acre luxury ranch in utah with a riverfront mansion that has a movie theater, wine cellar, and gym. Now, the company telling cnbc in a statement that the ppp funding, quote, served as a bridge for its 300 employees until the deal closes and that since ppp funds will be used to retain staff, the lifeline follows the spirit of the act. And i think tyler, the questions will now be for this company and all the other publicly traded companies, does it really follow the spirit, if not the letter of the law, for the ppp act back to you, tyler theres nothing that you know och in the law that prohibits publicly traded companies from taking this money, is there . No, there isnt basically, you have to have 500 employees or less. Nikola has 300 employees and all they have to do is retain or rehire their workers by june 30th and as youve done with your terrific interviews with the juniors cheesecake owner and others, you know, the letter of the law sounded good in principle. Theyre trying to get so much money out so quickly to trying to save so many companies. And when youre trying to lift so many boats, youre going to lift some yachts in the process. But legally, according to the law, they fold it and did nothing wrong and they were eligible and and yet, as you say, a company with the kind of company underpinnings that this company has, include the money theyre planning to raise by going public, would seem to be not exactly the kind of company this law or the subsequent one was intended to address. Thank you, robert. Maybe well talk about that with our next guest lets get some more perspective on the loan process and the path forward from someone who runs one of the larger banks in the u. S. Here for a cnbc exclusive is greg baraka, the ceo of td bank which has processed over 6,000 ppp loans. Thanks for being here. Its good to be here. What can you tell us about what got the money from your bank and do you have any regrets about who those recipients are to start off, the easiest way i would sum this up is you correctly called it, 26,000 of our customers across the bank have been approved through the sba process and i can just tell you firsthand, the thousands of these customers weve heard from directly, how much theyve appreciated the support and timeliness of the turnaround because it means so much to them and their employees, because predominantly, thats what its for, to make sure they stay on payroll, so if they are allowed to come back together, they have their business in tact i would also like to call out that, you know, our teams have been working around the clock for the last couple of weeks on this thing, and its just amazing to me to put this in context. Were the largest sba lender on the east coast, bar none, from maine to florida and normally in an annual cycle, a full year, we would process roughly 3,000 of these applications in a full year, and 26,000 have been done in about a week and a half. So it is an enormous undertaking. We should keep that in mind. For sure. Weve talked to a bunch of Different Bank leaders about this and about what their processes are. Because they seem to vary quite a bit. Did you guys have any criteria for who was given a loan and who was not . Did you have to develop any system, as things went on to handle the volume of calls how did you decide who was at the front of the line . There are so many stories that we could spend a lot of time on. But it was an smafg uptick on our end and the folks that were Walking Around the clock to actually have an online digital app to be able to actually receive this sort of intake. And i know it was reported on a lot of fits and starts at various places, but we were really pleased with the ability to intake this kind of volume so quickly right out of the gate. But, needless to say that behind the scenes, so much actual manual process was going to be involved behind the scenes to process this and process it through the sba and the guidelines that were set out we are also very happy that we were able to take applications from all of our Small Business customers, whether they were borrowing or nonborrowing, as long as they were a customer of td i guess my question is, did literally every person who asked for a loan receive one how many people are still kind of left hanging throughout the application process . And did you have to decide or ask them, you know, hey, are you have you done layoffs or are you planning to . You know, i anecdotally heard another story about a company that said, well, we realized if we had to maintain payroll at the size it was when we applied for the loan, we would lay everybody off first, then apply for the loan a smaller workforce, then we could say, as time went on, well, we only had to keep it at that size. You know, many good questions. I would say the primary criteria to start with, we followed the rauls with the way the legislation was passed we were very close with this back and forth, with the various industry groups, trade associations, and the sba about the best way to get the money out. And i know on your previous segment, you called out a few instances here and there across the industry, but i would say at td, the primary number i would just point to was that the vast majority of our applicants and borrowers were very small customers, indeed. And how far that have 26,00082 had 25 employees or less so we think that the spirit of what the sba and the legislation was trying to do is what we delivered in realtime. And i wonder if thats why, actually, we are not seeing dramatic changes being made to this program, as Congress Moves to approve more money. Now, they are targeting some at specifically smaller banks, community banks, i think maybe minorityowned banks or businesses how will that affect the loans that you guys are able to make and do you think this program has accomplished its goal or has it been misused . So, you know, i guess well have the debrief when all is said and done about who got offsides and who didnt. But i feel really good at td, in addition to our td cares program and all the other things that were doing, to help customers and borrowers and Small Businesses realtime working around the clock to get these things done. As this next wave of money looks like it comes online remember, it passed thehouse well wait to see it pass the senate it passed the senate, well wait to see it pass the house and then signed by the administration we think keeping it under the basic parameters that the program was originally under was probably the prudent thing to do, with some carveouts for things that they want to accomplish for the next round. It would have been much too difficult to change the program in a dramatic fashion and yet still get the money out in a reasonable time frame. You said that 82 of your applicants had less than 25 employees. How many people are still pending in your approval process, but havent received money . Yeah, its a great question you know, we have at least as many still waiting to get through the process before the funds ran out at the sba, thats already made its way through and were working through those realtime, including, you know, working with borrowers and customers to clean up applications, whether it was incomplete or missing documentation. As you can imagine, with such an onslaught of volume, there were bound to be just a ton of this that would have been incomplete. And were working through this realtime, but we think well be in a good position, if this does open up later in the week to get the balance of the volume through. 26,000 applications already greg, thanks for joiningus thank you greg braca is the ceo of td bank tyler . Kelly, thank you. Coming up, oil hovering around 15 a barrel can you believe it, after what has been a wild week for that slippery commodity we are going to dig into the economic fallout from these record low oil prices. Plus, travel booking company expedia up 10 today on reports its near a deal to sell 1 billion stake to silver lake and apollo as the Company Struggles to stay afloat during the vgothvirus pandemic wee t ose details about expedia after this business as usual. Anything but thats why working together is more important than ever. At t is committed to keeping you connected. So you can keep your patients cared for. Your customers served. Your students inspired. And your employees closer than ever. Our network is resilient. Our people are strong. Our job is to keep your business connected. Its what weve always done. Its what well always do. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. All right, welcome back, everyone lets get to sue herrera now for the latest on the coronavirus. Hello, sue hello, ty heres whats happening at this hour u. S. Auto sales are starting to show modest signs of recovery. Research firm jd power says retail sales of cars have stabilized during the first two weeks of april, but at roughly half the pace expected before the Virus Outbreak an additional 33 crew members on a cruise ship docked in southwestern japan have tested positive for the coronavirus this after one crew member was confirmed on sunday to be infected the costa atlantica is docked for repairs with 623 people onboard. Waiting cars stretched for more than a mile at a west Texas Food Bank that has been distributing around 2. 5 Million Pounds of food per week in that county and in light of those pictures and similar scenes from around the world, it feels appropriate that one of the worlds biggest annual food fights has been canceled spains tomatillo festival draws thousands of people every august this is the first time in its 75year history that it will not be held. But as i mentioned, thats probably appropriate as always, for more on the coronavirus coverage, you can head to cnbc. Com ty, back to you. Sue, thank you very much. And ill toss it over to seema mody for trading nation. Hi, seema. Hi, tyler were watching Online Travel giant expedia moving higher here, as apollo group and silverlake are nearing a 1 billion deal with the Online Travel company the coronavirus pandemic taking a heavy toll on bookings and shares are down about 42 yeartodate so should investors believe that private equity can turn around the company, im joined by matt maile of miller taebak with rockefeller Capital Management we should point out, this deal is not done, this is according to sources but michael, do you think this will instill confidence in investors . Absolutely. I mean, im hearing on the street, p\e firms are sitting on loads of cash. Theyre all looking for deals. And they have a longterm time horizon that can get extended. Theyre taking this approach fundamentals will be reset they might be gone for the nearterm and may be reset forever, but you have two of the best p\e firms looking for expedia specifically and i think, in a technologydriven society, where the consumer will continue to use Companies Like expedia to do travel, the demand will return, and i think this is this bodes well for the stock longterm. But again, the key is a longterm perspective. Two, three, four, five years and if you take that perspective, i think youll benefit in the long run. Matt, expedia in unique in that it was dealing with challenges even before coronavirus hit. How does the stock look to you on the charts, its a broken stock right now. That doesnt mean it count bounce back. But even before the coronavirus hit, the stock had broken down badly, below its longterm trend line, going back almost ten years. And it was funny, because when it did rally back earlier this year, it got right up to that trend line and rolled back over. And in a meaningful way. And that second decline, that took also took a blow, a multiyear descending triangle pattern. So on a purely tentacle basis, it looks quite bad theres one thing, when you get really smart people going to hit look to the private equity area, looking to hit that grand slam home run. I understand that. But with so many other stocks down quite a bit, too. I think individual investors might want to look at some other stocks, where they can take less risk maybe only get a tworun homer out of it, but still look pretty good with a tworun risk matt and michael, thank you for your perspective and for more trading nation, follow us on twitter still ahead, Oil Rebounding sharply today but prices remain shockingly low is this the new reality for the Global Economy crude at 14 a barrel . Plus, well hear from one retail expert who says this pandemic could drive 100,000 stores to close down for good. Well get into that. And remember, you can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app were back in two minutes with our special breaking News Coverage now the latest from tradingnation. Cnbc. Com and a word from our sponsor. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 12 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Welcome back lets give you a quick market check, with the dow industrials approaching session highs, up nearly 500 points, better than 2 the nasdaq leading the way as Technology Shares outperform other groups and small caps, well, they are underperforming the broader rally. The russell 2,000 up about 1. 5 right now. The oil market is closing up for the day and a change today is about a 20 gain, but its still way down, lately dom chu is at the commodity desk with more. Such ponder context here. Oil has fallen off a cliff, let that be the caveat as we tell you about the green on the screen with oil prices today, which are sharply higher june epiry, 14 a barrel now thats a 6 gauge. Again, that particular move for those world benchmark brent crude prices up big. But even with todays gains, oil prices have lost around three quarters of their value overall. Weve also got some headlines regarding a widely watched exchangetraded product that tracks oil futures now that u. S. Oil fund, that ticker uso, the fund was previously constructed to track the price movements of front month crude futures. Now it is changing its structure to invest in future contracts at various other expiration points in the futures market and split between both u. S. Benchmark crude futures as well as world benchmark brent crude futures for various months in the future remember, nymex, wti, crude, that trades at the cme Group Exchange brent is an i. C. E. Exchange traded product next up will be the focus on the baker hughes weekly rig counts friday, 1 00 p. M. Eastern time were going to see how much plunging oil prices will lead to a Production Cut among those big u. S. Oil and Gas Companies tyler, back over to you. All right, thank you very much, dom chu. Despite oil bouncing back at least a little bit today, investors are adjusting to the idea of prices remaining at these low levels for quite some time but if this is the new economic reality, what does it mean for markets, the Energy Industry, and jobs both in the u. S. And around the world lets talk about that with citibanks chief investment strategist and economist, steven whiting. Good to have you with us what does oil at a lower price point for longer mean for the Global Economy, one, for the american consumer, two, and for the american jobs outlook. Well, i would look at it this way. Theres usually some very mild, but widespread benefits for consumers for lower energy costs. But concentrated negative impact for producers. So from the credit perspective, it is a terrible, terrible blow, even if you share the benefits of Falling Energy costs for many consumers. And if we think about the particular moment in time where we are right now, where gasoline demand appears to be lower on a weekly basis than any time in the United States that we have seen since records beginning in 1991 so people are not driving, theyre not filling up gasoline tank, and theyre not really benefiting from that savings if we take a look at the Energy Industry in the United States, it seems that we had a very big drop in refinery use of energy so theyre not making the products and it makes sense, when jet fuel demand is also lower than any observation that we can see but Weekly Crude Oil production, again, is barely fallen. Its only begun to full a little bit in the United States and so youve been covering this a lot. This is going to be a sector thats unfortunately harmed from an unemployment perspective. So its that combination of things that we have to think about. At least over the very shortterm being a very concentrated negative impact. Well, thats an interesting way to think about it. And very helpful youre also the chief economist there. Talk to me about how long you think this sort of slumber in the economy persists how quickly it might come back, would you expect, lets say employment goes to 20 how quickly would you see that coming back in pan economy that lumbers back to health, doesnt snap back to health. So i think there are going to be a lot of distortions here that can create some really extreme readings that can be kind of misleading im going to give you an example from the theater industry. Last i saw, we had a couple of weeks where u. S. Movie theater receipts were 5,000 per week. And in the yearago week, they were 200 million so if we got up to 10,000 per week, we could have 100 rise, but its still basically nothing. I dont want to say that thats really the outlook for the economy, but if you fall 50 , you could have a 100 rebound, just to get back to the same level. So we have to think in those terms. What i think we are likely to see is that about a quarter of all workers in western economies are unable to perform their jobs in the Second Quarter, whether we count them as unemployed. Whether we simply have them furloughed or just theyre unable to do their jobs, but still have them. So for gdp, this is going to be a very severe drop in the United States, if we annualize that drop, a 10 drop becomes a 40 annualized pace of decline. If we get half of those workers back in the third quarter, youve got to remember those gains and losses are asymmetric. We think that could be a 30 annualized rebound, even if you get halfway back in many respects, were expecting a long period here to get to a new high in the economy. There are particular sectors travel, hospitality, traditional retail these are things that will be negatively impacted. Some elements of real estate will come back slowly, but i think you can still, once we get past the Second Quarter period, there can be a pretty sharp rep bound. And i think youre seeing that already in chinas economy can thats roughly indicative. All right steven, thank you very much. Interesting way to think about the numbers. Steven wieting, appreciate your time fannie and freddie are helping to open up the extremely tight Mortgage Market. Diana olick are here with their efforts. Fannie and freddie will now buy mortgages that goes into the governments Forbearance Program after they close that allows borrowers to delay their payments for up to a year if theyve been impacted by the economic shutdown. Now, fannie and freddie havent been buying those loans, leaving lenders on the hook. And as a result, lending tightened dramatically you can see here how mortgage Credit Availability tanked in march. There are a lot of factors behind that, but this is just one of them. Fannie and freddies regulators said in a statement, purchases of these previously ineligible loans will help provide liquidity to Mortgage Markets and allow originators to keep lending. That from mark collabra. The mortgage must have closed between february 1st and may 31st of this year. It can be to buy a home or refi, but no cashout refis. The loan cannot be more than 30 days delinquent. There will also be a cost premium for lenders to sell these. 5 of the loan for firsttime home buyers and 7 for repeat home buyers. Now, there is some disagreement as to what this means for Mortgage Rates some say they could fall slightly as the credit box opens up more. Others say some lenders will pass on those higher costs on to borrowers in the form of higher rates. So i guess well see what happens going forward. Back to you guys we just hope it helps the Mortgage Market overall here, the way its gotten all caught up in this diana, thanks. Coming up, stocks are at session highs s s at the moment. The market is up 500 points. Weve talked about the oil comeback energy is bouncing a bit today. Plus, well delve into the massive impact the problems local governments could have on the National Economy rba itwitus wee ckn o. Life isnt a straight line. And sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. But when youre with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, theres nothing to stop you from moving forward. A partner who makes sure every step is clear, since 1926, nationwide weve been there in person, during trying times. Today, being on your side means staying home. Nationwide office of customer advocacy. But we can still support you and the heroes who are with you. Were giving refunds on Auto Insurance premiums, assisting customers with financial hardships, and our foundation is contributing millions of dollars to charities helping with covid19 relief. Keeping our promise to be on your side. Welcome back state and local governments like private businesses are experiencing a major drop in revenue. But they havent been able to get a government bailout today, Senate LeaderMitch Mcconnell in a radio interview said he would be open to the idea of states filing for bankruptcy the major mub muni bond etf did turn negative after those remarks. Yl ylan mui is here to look at the impact relief could have there is growing concern that the budget crisis facing state and local governments could end up holding back the National Recovery one estimate shows that the cuts at the state level alone could be deeper than they were during the great recession. The center on budget and policy priorities is forecasting a staggering 290 billion shortfall among the states next fiscal year. Compare that to 230 billion during the depths of the great recession. Much of that spending did not come back. Thats why it was such a headwind on growth evercorps isi estimating that local austerity dragged down u. S. Gdp by as much as 80 basis points between 2010 and 2011 and that it diluted the federal fiscal stimulus by as much as a third. Now, the other big worry is, of course, layoffs. 627,000 Public Sector workers at the state and local level lost their jobs in the years following the great recession. And this concern that that could happen once again. Theres impacts of that, not just for the Public Sector, but also for the private sector, as well many businesses are suppliers to local governments and they also rely on Public Services in order to keep their doors open guys, we spoke to one county commissioner in ohio who told us, you know, a restaurant cant be expected to reopen if they cant be expected to reopen if the county Health Inspector has lost his job thank you very much many traditional retailers were struggling even before the coronavirus struck up next, an analyst who predicts 100,000 store closures in the coming years well be right back. Ne. A note to say youre on our mind. A willingness to come to you. The world and how we interact with each other is changing. But that will never change who we are at lexus. Now, more than ever, you and your needs come first. Find out what Service Options are available in your area at lexus. Com people first welcome back the macys is looking to raise 5 billion in debt to aavoid bankruptcy amid the slowdown Sycamore Partners is backing out of a deal to buy a steak in Victor Victorias secret. U. P. S. Is predicting is 00,000 Retail Stores could be shuttered in the next five years do to changing consumer behaviors postcoronavirus more more, lets welcome in michael lasser, the retail analyst for ubs. Which stores in particular are most likely to close here . Thanks for having me. Good afternoon we think the clothing and accessory sector is particularly vulnerable during this time. Plus small retailers those with less than 500 employees. This group during the last recession schultered around 7 of their store base, equal to 55,000 stores. If they shut a similar percentage this time, that alone will cost us 40,000 to 45,000 stores it will be those two groups particularly vulnerable. I was also surprised to see home tufurnishings and Grocery Stores 11 thoushg Grocery Stores, 11,000 or more for home turn irings and 12,000 for consumer electronics. Why wouldnt furnishings be more of a stalwart . Does that point back to the rise of ecommerce . The premise of our argument, as you said, is that as ecommerce penetration rises thats going to put downward pressure on the number of stores because the distribution of these will be ubiquitous right now, take a space like grocery, where online penetration is pretty low in the low to midsingledigit percentage range as a percentage of total sales however, over the last weeks and months, many consumers have trialed Online Grocery smopi isg and many will move from trial to adoption, and thus the penetration of online groceries is going to sharply increase theres around 90,000 Grocery Stores in the u. S. As Online Grocery increases, its going to mean theres less need for those physical locations and as a result were estimating around 11,000 Grocery Stores could be at risk. Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Its interesting my own personal experience has been a little bit of a countertrend from what youre describing where all of a sudden im, you know, meal planning and going to the Grocery Store once a week and going to target because its easier to get everything there at once versus this kind of piecemeal ordering approach on amazon do you expect that people will change behavior in some ways not so much that it kind of, you know, affects ecommerce penetration but that it just changes the dynamic of Household Spending as a result of coronavirus . Absolutely. Your behaviors are telling and revealing. What youre saying is youre consolidating Shopping Trips yes being more purposeful with what youre doing. That behavior is likely to be long lasting or at the very least your propensity to want to go back and roam Retail Stores will be slow to come back. There are retail trips that are attached to leisure activities like going out to eat or going to see the movies. Someone may casually walk into a store during that type of trip those are going to be trips that are particularly sensitive and increase the rise of all online penetration in those areas it will necessitate fewer Retail Stores and put downward pressure on those that are vulnerable to put a bottom line on it for investors, you think target with walmart and costco should benefit here with gains for home depot, lowes, the Dollar Stores as well, even t. J. Maxx, ross stores and burlington. Michael, great to get your points of view it certainly rings true. Thanks for joining us today. Thang you very much tyler it does, kelly. I think peoples behavior is going to change a lot. The change is going to be enduring youre going to think twice or ose e times before you go into thstores well give you a final check on the market next. I know that every single time that i suit up, there is a chance that thats the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. I might be crazy but im not stupid. Having an annuity tells me that im protected. During turbulent times, consider protected Lifetime Income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan. This can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. Learn more at protectedincome. Org. I have to say, i have to think twice before i fill up the cart. Lets clare fi something from an earlier segment. We were talking about Trevor Miltons, what hes received from the program it was 4 million. We want to clarify that. Mr. Mathison the graphic was in error. Roberts voice was correct kelly, great lets take you to the markets right now with what little time we have left 500plus points for the dow higher, thats 2. 25 , but the big standout today, as it has been for so many days here on positive days, has been the nasdaq, up better than 3 right now and we will follow the action on the closing bell, which is coming up right now thank you very much welcome to the the closing bell. I am wilfred frost with sara eisen. Stocks rallying for the first time this week as we see the Energy Market recover. Lets look at whats driving the Action Congress on track to pass nearly half a trillion in extra stimulus funds Oil Prices Recover and corporate earnings providing a bit of relief today