Just about 1. 5 for everything nasdaq not quite add bad russell is down. You see the russell is down 3 really taking it on the chin this week. Steve, i think its constructive on a friday and maybe we should make it a consistent thing at this point given whats gone on in the markets to take stock of where you think we are today and how we should look forward to the week ahead. Friday has been a risk off day. Doesnt look like today is any different than others. I think actually the market is trading on physical theraa fairm today. As a share holder, im support that most important right now is to worry about employees and the communities in line with the business round tables statement that they put out on august 19th of last year i think that would give everybody comfort because the number one thing we have to worry about is the economy and that will help the consumer come back youre talk about Big Companies coming out like bryan monahain said earlier that they will have jobs not to mention the current employees of bank of america and some of these other firms that are keeping their employees. As we have been talking the whole time kramer has led the charge in this hashtag no more layoffs thats what youre talking about. Exactly they put shareholders last they put employees, communities ahead of shareholders nap was the right thing to do. As owners of more than 50 of every publicly traded companies, the passive in terms, blackrock and vanguard leading should say to companies we want you to worry about those higher up in the food chain your employees, your suppliers, your communities take care of them first. We think long term we think ten years thats what i would like to see. I think the mark we trade up at that point shannon, tell me where you think we are in the market at the current time again, coming off a week that was huge to the up side. Now well likely end to the downside this week we try to figure out where we go from here. The challenge here isthat w have seen the positive impacts of the fed already and were looking for that positive economic stimulus. I see a lot of historical working done over the course of the last several weeks looking at when the bmarkets bottom versus peak bottom claims or the lowest levels of the ism if youre looking for Economic Data to provide you with this path, we have seen such a rapid deceleration in data i dont know that its an apples to apples comparison were look at the parts of the market that have caused some of the dislocating impact when we saw the vix, spike, it was based on we saw the sharp declines in energy we saw some Short Covering i think we were moving into, perhaps, still elevated volatility period as represented by the vix i think that what were looking for now is that its going to be more looking at the underlying companies. Looking at Asset Classes and reallocation and not calling the bottom here but the ability to put some capital back to work for longer Term Investors. I think equities look attractive i think we need to be more comfortable this is a two quarter Economic Impact and therefore you know we can start to model that out as we get this Economic Data. The other side is what Morgan Stanley talks about when we they talk about deeper drop, slower climb. Were talking as if and shannon just mentioned, in her eye thrks is eyes, this is a two quarter situation. What if its not its not a two quarter situation. Id love to be wrong but i dont think i am one of the most important roles that a money manager plays is not just what the the performance, whats the volatility a lot of that is math. Its about setting expectations. One of things i talked about with an all clients call was this idea of, look, were six weeks into this. The average bear market throughout history is about 13 months you have some that are eight months which would be what shannon is talk about. I hope that is the case, but some that are two years. We dont know the depth and duration you can make the case that a lot of the stock decline you see in bear market, weve already had it we manage money strategically and tactically the big concern is duration. As excited as people were to buy the dip, will they have the same enthusiasm to do that, scott, if this is still going on in june or july . My take from 20 years of experience is they wont let me read you some of the i read you the head liec line of the Morgan Stanley note and now let me read you some of the text if you subscribe to this point of view, it changes the way youll think about the stock market we see a shallower rebound in q3 and we do not see activity returning to its previrus level until the end of 2021. Thats a long way off. Can i point out something that happened this week. I think what happened this week was really constructive for the bulls. Ill explain to you why. Last week we had an amazing rally. Historic rally took place. Thats great it gives people a chance to look at their allocation and catch their breath and make decisions without an explosion going on in front of the screen. I like that happened this week we really didnt give that much back thats constructive. Secondly, there is a differentiation in what got hit this week. This week the hardest hit area, retail take a look at the xrt and iyr anything to do with property, that makes sense to me of course, carnival down another 40 something percent this week theyre still paying for the airline, the cruise lines and now they are hitting the names that are most susceptible. Its rational. It makes sense that is happening. Amazon is up on the week microsoft is up on the week. These companies have almost become infrastructure plays. They are how were getting by right now. I like theres dispersion and that were making a judgment call before we just sell everything thats what has changed this week what about the notion, jim, that chanos told us yesterday, warning us against piling into these virus stocks whether its the zoom or the peleton, teledoc the ones that will thrive in this sort of environment where things are different and the work from home thing may g on longer being at home may go on for a little bit longer. Josh talked about a group of stocks that had been hit some of them are in the eye of the storm here then there are others that have done better. I wonder if you need to reassess where everything is at the current time were getting a lot of client inquiries on those stocks. When you look at the Balance Sheets and the cash flows of a zoom and a peleton, it tells you they are very healthy from a financial point of view. What it doesnt tell you is what sort of swralvaluation you shout on those stocks. Not with the market environment and the volatility youve got. What ive been saying to client who is talk about zoom, peleton or abbott labs, these companies are fine for the long run. You should expect the volatility in the market but you should expect volatility in these names. I think thats a way of saying that at the end of the day, a stock is a stock if we had a bear market rally last week, which is what it looks like and if it looks like well retest the lows, even the darlings will go along for the rides but those names are likely to be muted on the down side are we scott hold on a second. I want to ask you a question and you can answer it however you want it seems to me the conversation is around where we started it with the Morgan Stanley note as the narrative of youre either thinking this is a two quarter deal or youre thinking its a six quarter deal or somewhere in between. The somewhere in between and where ever you fall, in that spectrum tells a lot where the stock market may be by virtue of what the reality turns out to be i think thats absolutely right. People are going to be upside down 75 of the u. S. Population lives paycheck to paycheck once those full paychecks stop coming in then the bills start piling up. Were in an economy where 70 of gdp is driven by consumer spending, by Service Companies those Service Companies arent going to see their revenues hit the prior peak for a long time because people will be worried about paying rent, putting food on the table i doebnt see any way we come bk in two quarters. Not only that, once you have to deal with all thoseissues that you braupought up, its the apprehension to get back to prior level of normalcy. Its being in a hotel or airplane or any other number of things that we could mention after 9 11, it took three years for Airline Traffic to come back for passengers and you could see that security precautions were really strengthened and arguably it was much safer to fly at that point from a security standpoint but any point before, but three years it took to come back i dont know if its three years, but its not six months or a year to come back that leads me to the comments a that jim made. Peleton, hardly people are piling into it if you call the company its got a tremendous backlog being consistent with that theme, people are going to change their habits from going to a change, which is not cheap to buying peleton. When you look at zoom and teledoc, as irrational as it was to sell stocks without any aforethought, it was the same irrationality that caused people to buy zoom and teledoc. They are good models but zoom didnt deserve a mark cap of 34 billion now when theres so many competitors there. Let me bring in Mike Santolli you can take stock of the week and weigh in on this Morgan Stanley thing too and how you believer that shapes your own view on where you think we may be going it took the index to where it was three years early. Thats the other thing to keep in mind. Were talking about last years level of activity. Were at a stock market thats at 2017 levels i think we have to get away from this idea that the markets collectively are trying to sniff out some objective reality that sits out in time its going be impatient. Its going to price from a dire one, the next day. The reason it matters so much is thats when the clock is ticking on the solvency of large parts of the economy the erosion of the credit worthiness and the rise and default rates and things like that in large parts of the economy. Thats why i think the stock market has traded right along with credit this week. I dont want to get into who is leading, which is lagging, which market is smarter and which is not. That is relevant in the moment we dont have a Critical Mass of crisis relevant data right now i think this is how the markets are trading. The rally didnt prove all that much i agree its bullish to go sideways and kind of sag a little bit this week in terms of the s p. It doesnt necessarily tell you that it really gave anybody any impetus to say i see how the come back lacks. Sure. Did you think are you suggesting were going to be in range of some sort until we get more clarity that the violent moves up or down, or maybe in the near pass, for a while its going to be this up 500, down 400 i think a range makes sense now that everybody has adapted to the idea that things are bad. They will stay bad for a while we dont have criteria i dont think a range would be a bad thing. Is it going to happen. Is there urgency for it. Is there political will for it i think a lot of things that come in to disturb this idea the market is impatient. It will have these false starts. One thing to keep in mind is the stuff that has continued to lead and work, you really somewhere not gotten hurt. Its worth asking the question if that is persist can you have a place to hide in an environment like this that manages to work for a very long time its worth asking if that becomes a matter of fatigue and doesnt have the buying energy to keep these valuations in tact josh. To michaels point about where to hide, its very clear when you look at capsize small caps are down. The s p is down 1. 7 theres a clear preference for well funded, Large Enterprises over small caps. Which companies will have a tougher time i want to ask mike, how youre thinking about the timetable and how bad things will get might be a regional phenomenon. A lot of money is managed in new york, boston and chicago where the death rates are hire the infection counts are higher. Everything seems more severe on the west coast they seem to have done a much better job flattening the curve and you might have a disparity out there amongst even professional investors based on a bias concerning what the held situation feels like around where they live. Are you hearing anything like that out there it makes sense to me. I wonder exactly how to project the head of what that might mean it might mean protect stocks. The new york centriusm means when new york has peaked and rolled over as the rest of the country is still behind us and the global effects have not worked their way through it makes sense these companies that have held up better jim, we know the economic numbers will be dreadful and they will be dreadful for a while. The virus numbers are going to be have a greater tendency to move stocks to make us feel better and give us an idea of a date specific, if not hope of when we can get back to work you went to the root cause to have disaster here the short answer is yes, thats what matters we have two weeks before any sign of clarity comes. Every day feels like a week already. The problem is theres not going to be any information whether its economic or earnings that will give us any insight into what the other side of this looks like thats what the problem is im not negative in the long run. I do have an inclination that well retest the lows and it specifically because the stock market hates uncertainty and youve got two weeks of maximum uncertainty. Its not going to ebb. Thats simple. Is it that simple why bother thinking about what the other side will look like until we get the virus under control and the spread starts to slow down and the death rate in some of these hot spots slows, flattens, starts to go down, whatever i think thats why theres no point in trying to bottom fish here i think mike made a great point about the types that are performing well. Based on numbers we have looked at when the vix moves two standard deviations, whether youre working with individual investors or mor institutional investor, it doesnt make sense to bottom fish any buying, apart from what youre seeing in the Energy Market which is stabilization based on price changes, i dont see impetus to look outside the bode of stocks that held up pretty well over the course of the last couple of years talking about companies, quote, unquote, doing the right thing. I totally hear what youre saying and i think it totally matters and it will matter forever. The companies that stepped up will be viewed differently do you agree with this idea of its hard to think about the other side until you even from a stock market standpoint of dealing with the virus numbers i agree 1,000 percent thats the absolute delta. Its not two plus three equals five its two times three equals six. The more we get into the whole in terms of numbers, the more well get into the whole in the economy and the greater the fear factor is. Im not so sure we have to see the other side because the market is a discounting ne inin mechanism. We dont know why or when it will my suspicion before we peak, before the numbers are the absolute worse that we have seen so much carnage, so many terrible things on the news every single night throughout the day that the market will get past it. Then well revisit what it means economically to the economy. Neither is a good picture. To mikes point that were back to 2017 levels, lets not forget the market did nothing for 18 months until that last spurt in 2019 the market was already just wallowing in an area where it needed multiple expansion to move forward were going back to that and were going worse. Whats kind of interesting here is that whats interesting is i have a high beta portfolio thats generally a two edged sword. That is exacting like a champ because they are the Quality Growth Companies but youre losing the valuation umbrella of the entire market. I dont think they hold their levels where they are. Heres the problem, shannon, you guys, not we you guys who are managing money and giving people advice on money are doing it theoretically because you think you have some level of clarity on where things are going to be in a few months, six months or however months in the future, right . Youre predicting making a prognostication and a probability of where earnings will be. Here, the new normal, perhaps, for an investor which makes it difficult is you have no clarity on anything. You have no clarity on when the virus will level out and you have no clarity on what the other side will look like, so good luck. Its very challenging if you look at the three legged stool, we had fiscal stimulus an monetary stimulus. Theyre the backdrop for what is next accommodation on better data on the virus. Youve seen the story about different apps that will be use li utilized the way people can selfreport. These period where is its six weeks or eight weeks prior to. I think youre right its impossible the use the comparisons. I think we can use some Historical Context as it relates to significant decleaines and consumer spending. I agree with, i think it was josh who said, i dont think we get back to the level of Economic Activity from a cons e consumer side in the Third Quarter but how much of that have we priced in. If we get back to 60 or 70 of that activity by the Second Quarter of next year, are there firms, are there companies that you city think you can own where you can look at the sales and revenue they had over the last couple of years and extrapolate that with a discount you can make plausible case if youre an investor that i think stocks have come down enough if my time frame is three years, five years or longer than that, you can make a quality and credible case that stocks are attractive, right . If you are a long Term Investor and we had people who come on this show, who are, who arent buying for tomorrow or the day after who made credible cases for the longer term depending your age and time horizon might be thats the whole point im 43thinking about it because im not two years from retirement. If i were fully invested in equities i would be terrified because i lost years of working that i cant replace i cant do what i did in my 50s and 60s to reaccumulate those assets i would throw out two things the range of possibility has broadened to the point where we shouldnt be worried about this idea that we do have a recovery even if it starts later this year, which will be great. Employers realize, i could get by with just 80 of the staff i once had turns out i dont need every one back that represents a structural challenge to the labor pool. S thats balanced out with this idea we dont know what the cap list will be but there is potentially a 10 or 15 one or two day face whipping rally out there predicated on could be any of the following. The fda approves a treatment but we get an approved treatment that is proven to get people off of ventilators or keep them from being on, that could give you a headline like new york peaking if new york state, new york state is now 4,000 cases a day which is not great, obviously. If all of a sudden we start to see that peak, people will buy stocks i agree with you on that. There is no light at the end of the tunnel at this point you cant see it the whole thing is dark. Its hard to have a positive feeling about anything any ray of light would be a huge help fedex down 6. 5 after they cut the pay of founder and drew 1. 5 million from its credit line they lowered pay by 91 . Also with drawing its four year guidance smith told news outlets he did not believe fedex would need government aid or layoff workers. They said government aid would be a possibility fed aex share falling more than 6. 5 back over to you thank you lets go to the moves you guys are making steve, what are you doing in the market not much. I went back to lulu. I made some moves. I did add a little to microsoft. I sold some face i bought facebook and then i got stopped out of that over position in facebook im doing nothing now. Im looking to that fat pitch where you have true momentum in the market i know i can make money on the short side anybody can. I think theres something wrong with shorting stocks in this environment. At this point im sitting on my hands. Im comfortable with my equity exposure i expect to test the lows. Ill decide if i want to put more money in the market its very difficult in this environment, as you highlighted before, where you get no negativity you can get it looking at portfolio when you go home, spend time with your family. You dont have any of that its difficult managing that you know what the other thing is we talked to dr. Gotley every night on our 7 00 p. M. He is about as resolute as one can be in sea of uncertainty that youll be, by the summer, some sort of therapeutic available. The closer you get to the summer months, the more difficult it may be to be more negative on the market because you do risk being on the wrong side of a josh brown like head liechb what he said that turns bearishness on its head. I was emailing with a great friend of the show yesterday or the day before thats the risk to being too negative thats the risk to be short in addition to the anxiety of being short. I think that ultimately having a therapeutic before a vaccine josh makes an excellent point. Id love to see it happen. Everybody else would too. Well take a quick break another volatile week of trading. Former dallas fepridd esent is on the other soide when the hal comes back in two minutes. Heading in a new direction. But when youre with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, theres nothing to stop you from moving forward. Lets get back to frank with the headlines. Here is the very latest new York Governor Andrew Cuomo is reporting 562 new deaths from the coronavirus since yesterday. Its the deadliest day yet hes authorizing them to seize unused ventilators from private hospitals and distribute them to new york city. He welcomed assistance from all across the country an he promised new york will repay the favor. When our curve is over, thats what were going to do. New yorkers are going to take what we have amassed we will take our equipment, take our personnel, well take our knowledge and we will go to any community that needs help. Spain remains under lockdown. Birthdays in the age of social distancing can still be special. Albuquerque police pulled out all the stops when they heard zach was turning four and he loves police cars. They sent police cars, motorcycles and horses by his house and sent a bomb robot to deliver a present to this young man who has a disease called spinal muscular atrophy. If you look there, you see a smile. Back to you, scott we appreciate that. Thank you. Todaytodayss job reports s they will be on high alert officially your show has become enormously popular for a reason. Youre giving out good information. Greatful for you to say that. Lee lets take the job reports can you hear me in. I think were back on first and foremost, im grateful for those words thank you for that lets take the job reports in the Bigger Picture how deep and how long do you think this lasts in your mind . Its hard to quantify specifically but my guess is were in for a u shape experience here. The question is how prolonged that u is. You have to put yourself in the role of a worker thats been laid off or as an employer who is laid off workers the people in the jobs are not listed these guys are severely strained now. There is an effort to get money out to them. The main Street Lending program is not clear exactly how that will work. Youre going be a little bit wary of going back sporting events, all those kind of things that adds to 20 of our economy. Thats a fifth of our output is in those spheres youll want protection it will take time to work our way out of this situation. What policy makers have done to this point and what they can still do have they done a good job in your mind. They have done a lot we had be play book at the fed, we could pull that out pretty quickly they were able to do it off schedule, as you saw these are the kind of backstop programs we did in 2008, 2009 for a different reason the collapse in Counter Party trust. Money market funds, commercial paper, bonds we made every one of those markets. We retired those programs. It took us longer to undue the trust rate ig. Additional tools have been adhere the numbers are huge if you net out the Strategic Industries like boeing and so on, theres about four and a half trillion dollars the fed could leverage from the 450pro congress that number gets swamped you already see nancy pelosi saying she wanted to do more were just going to have to see whether or not this does the trick. It depends on how quickly you think things will recover. Im rather pessimistic it can be a quick recovery im wondering if you can put us in the room and what you think mr. Powell is thinking today knowing that he may very well be faced with what the investor is faced with in what may be his new normal of no clarity on virus and no clarity on other side. We have a tool kit. They have a tool kit we developed it the last time. They threw it out there very quickly. He has a credit market background he understands the treasury. He knows how to work the hill. These are talents that are coming to bear here that his predecesso predecessors did not have. The main Street Lending program will be pushed out and over seen by regional banks like the dallas fed i think they are still trying to figure out how they are going to do this. What do they do in terms of f e forebearance this is still being worked on and until you have a sense you can administer this correctly, youll take your times were likely to see it go beyond 70 before this crisis. The you are jenurgent programs lending and deploy employment, they will make sure they can tli dl deliver and make those things work you anticipated my next question you said negative rates are out out of the question. I know the fed chair doesnt want to go to negative rates rates are moving lower what if this goes down im of the school that believes the Federal Reserve has lost control of the yield curve. You cant say that the fed pushed a tenyear down almost two weeks ago to below 30 basis points i was at australia at the time i was meeting with the two big banks there and they were 40. They were doing everything they could to get into the treasury the market determines these rates. I believe the fed lost control of the yield curve the only thing they have is the low point. The markets dont respect that as much as they do they could push these yields much lower the negative side of that is it sends a signal to a congressperson i can still spend mer because t more because the cost to carry is less. We appreciate it as always. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. Take care of yourself and your family. Bye up next, new england patriot, brandon copeland, is here how he is helping his fellow nfl players during the Virus Outbreak thats straight ahead. I am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To all of our employees and everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. Welcome back cnbc has partnered with acorn. We have an nfl star who is using his down time to offer Financial Advice to his fellow players hes a member of cnbc wellness council. He signed with the new England Patriots brandon, welcome back. Its good to see you thanks, scott how you doing . Im doing well. Trying to hang in there. I hope youre well and safe and Feeling Healthy too. Yes, sir. Thank you so much. Like many professors you have gone to the virtual classroom to continue to do what you do this is an interesting thing youre trying to do while you and your fellow players in the nfl are waiting to see what happens with what happens with the season. Yeah. Fortunately with the university of pennsylvania we had to make all of our classes remote anyway so by being able to use this as an opportunity to have a chance to reach out to my fellow players, i know exactly where they are you know shouldnt be leaving the house for the most part for its an opportunity to help everyone understand that we can utilize this time to build ourselves so that god willing we all come out of this sprinting forward with a clear plan and a clear vision for ourselves and our future. Can you give me an idea of how many players taken part in what you oar doing and how many you will do Going Forward . Yeah. We have five slated. We had the first one on this past tuesday we had a little over 60 players join looking forward to having more join this week everyone is tasked with bringing a friend and great feedback and looking forward to it. Having conversations with players who without forming this group, you know, i wouldnt have had contact with so i think its also a great way to connect us all across the country. Have you felt and maybe this is just yourself or what youve heard from your fellow players about a change perhaps in the way that they view their finances in light of this crisis which is not just a health crisis, it is a financial crisis and economic crisis all wrapped up into one. It is a humbling experience for all of us. Right . Player, athlete, millionaire, nonmillionaire, regardless, you see how quickly things can change and so i think as people have always i always say you work as hard as possible to ensure that your next check grows, however you prepare as if this is your last check and so i think this is a chance for people to get their affairs in order and understand that this is out of everyones control right . No one has their control on this and it is affecting us all and what can we do to make sure that were in a better situation if Something Like this ever happens again god forbid. Maybe more importantly how do you go from the jets to the patriots what is up with that decisions, personal finance, right . Business decisions. Yeah. I know youre touched by what the krafts did regarding the supplies where they sent their plane. It is amazing it is amazing to be part of an organization that, you know, is selfless like that you know i think that my foundation and i have been thinking of ways to help but to see our my Patriots Organization utilizing their jet to go get the masks from china, bring them to the u. S. And help people, thats Something Special to be part of again and makes me proud. Yeah. No tom brady, though yeah. No tom brady but i can play quarterback a little bit, too. No we wish you well. Were proud of what you are doing, trying to educate your fellow nfl stars through this and wish you the best and hope to see you on the other side of this. Sounds good likewise stay safe. Thank you. Take care thats brandon copeland. For more go to cnbc. Com investinyou and also want to note that coming up, final thoughts straight ahead this piece is talking to me. Yeah . So what do you see . I see an unbelievable opportunity. I see bestinclass platforms and education. I see awardwinning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. And i see it with zero commissions on online trades. I like what youre seeing. Its beautiful, isnt it . Yeah. Td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. Eveso we can stillg a answer your calls. Now. And we are monitoring our system 24 7 to ensure that we have a fast reliable network, keep the customers connected, and making sure people are staying safe. And were still on the road. Solving Critical Issues as they arise. Go to xfinity. Com prepare. Thank you. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Reminer to tune in tonight 7 00 eastern for another special report the path forward, your business. Well discuss this evening the challenges facing independent businesses with the prophet himself Marcus Lemonis tweet us your questions. I look forward to seeing you this evening the traders are answering your questions. Weiss, to you from dave in atlantic, should the individual investor be hedging orren suring their longterm portfolio . I think it is late to hedge a lot of anxiety and chew up the capital so this point stay with what you own as long as theyre Quality Companies and just ride it out if youre a longTerm Investor all right josh, to you from sam in new jersey, the best etf or individual companies to benefit from remote work lifestyle zoom seems pricey at these levels. It is pricey. If i didnt already own it and wasnt already up 100 on it or whatever i can i would not be a buyer here i agree with weiss it is insane theres no etf for the space okay. Jm jim to you from rose. How do you avoid passive investing . Quick. You can do sector analysis, buy a Small Cap Fund a plan with a Small Cap Fund, diversify across sectors. Stay healthy. Kelly picks up our coverage now. Thank you, scott hi, everyone im kelly evans. At home and out of work. Shocking 701,000 jobs lost many say the number fails to capture the full extent of the ongoing economic blow we are experiencing the stock market originally shrugged off the report and now sitting near session lows. Talking about declines of just under 2 for the dow, the s p and the nasdaq this afternoon. Stocks are also unimpressed with