From President Trump bnp and santander announce they are amid the payout 100 billion scheme to help the answer is after the sanitary crisis to invest, invest, invest thats what europe is going to do so this european data, not very pretty. Numbers are coming in significantly weaker they are even weaker than the flash estimates. The final composite pmi come in at 29. 7. The flash estimate was 31. 4, the final services pmi 26. 4, the estimate 28. 4. The estimate 28. 4. That is the lowest level for the Financial Services sector since the survey began numbers reinforcing the collapse in the eurozone. Final Business Expectations 33. 5 the flash estimate 34. 8. Just by terms of comparison, the february number on that was 30. 3 where are the green chutes the february survey 51. 2 many of these numbers are now ratcheting these numbers represent survey lows with the lockdown appearing to be set for some time here it does feel there is some optimism first thing on the numbers, these are deviating relative to what we usually see demonstrating how much we have seen second thing i would say, we have been discussing all morning, the European Response now it is a question to how the execution of those actually goes and whether we can or we will see the funds provided and the schemes created reaching the people affected by the lockdowns and those whose jobs are at risk in the eurozone. Lets bring in jean tirole from the school of economics welcome to our program obviously the data points we are seeing here across the pmi series make very ugly reading at this point is there anything we can take away as a crumb of comfort with a relatively brief period of time we have seen a lot of stimulus come to the table . Caller i think this morning, there are enterprises that cannot function anymore. Thats what it is about. It is about solving the shortterm economic distress at this stage, there is not much activity ba activity because of confinement. We have a big public debt issue afterwards we listen to the finance minister of luxembourg on the program. They appear to be suggesting that what is being done so far is enough to address the current distress we are seeing with economies. What is your perspective caller at this stage, we have to be careful first, we dont know when the pandemic will stop we dont know how long it will take it could take almost a year. Then well see the ecb reaction will try to do whatever it takes to solve these issues elsewhere in terms of the reaction, they will do it. Good morning, to you. Two of your pet topics when we are still going to have the economic crisis going, will the pressure change across europe, do you think there would be many calls for this some of it would be justified in a sense the supply change for medical goods, we have to rethink a little bit the state has a role in playing for that everybody in the industry essential will ask for protection there was already a trend before covid19 to ask for more protection we are in a world where protection is very popular we have to ask ourself, do we want to get rid of globalization . There would be an eeeconomy. When it comes to protecting works, who do you think is right . Weve seen different responses from the United States and European Union about how they want to go about protecting those whose jobs are at risk here caller if people dont want to show up today, there is no job to be found. The same thing for the firms the way it has been in front of germany. In terms of the layoffs, it is accountability for the firms it has been suspended and rightly so the firms are not responsible for what is happening. Relatively speaking, understanding the measure in response in terms of keeping children out of school for months, how do you go about estimating what this is going to do for Global Growth prospects moving forward they are part of the hidden cost that, yes, children staying out of school for a while will be a cost. Not a cost that will be felt in a year or two, it will be felt in 20 or 30 years. More cost on Public Sciences there will be an increase of debt in every country. Meaning for more fragile countries like southern europe, this is one where those issues should be at play. We talked around it is Debt Forgiveness ultimately where we are going caller the question is, Debt Forgiveness doesnt come with it is more like debt remediation. If a country started to default on its debtor restructure it, then there would be a lack of trust. At this stage, one would have to balance the check immediately. Exactly at the time we have to pay certain expenses, the hospitals and so on. Balancing, which would be the consequence of defaulting. There are other solutions, i think. Well wrap up with you, jean tirole the chairman of the school of economics and 2014 noble prize lauerate the stoxx 600 currently lower. We have bounced off the lows of the day giving back yesterdays move when the markets marched higher alongside a strong rebound in the oil price President Trump driving optimism that we could drive a deal investors investing those jobless claims numbers this morning, the services pmi showing a dismal picture the eurozone contracting sharply in march as all of the european nations for the most part go into the lockdown. Going to the different region, red across the board italy baring the front of the selling. The ftse mib down 1. 1 we saw a steep contraction there. The dax down about 10 basis points the german cac down. We saw a big jump in crude prices the biggest oneday rally on record he said he helped negotiate a deal to cut output trump said he had spoken can russian president and Saudi Crown Prince saying he expects them to announce an output cut between 10 and 15 Million Barrels a day. Trump later tweeted adding, quote, it will be great for the oil and gas industry meanwhile, saudi arabia is calling for an opec plus meeting with other producers in a statement, they said, the invitation for the talks comes at the request of the United States lets look at the European Oil Majors yesterday, we saw a massive bounce in the european equities. Lets look now, we have seen steeper selling earlier. Now with some of those steeper losses shell down 0. 6 not every stock is trading lower. Investors clearly cautious around what may come next. Looking at the price of oil, brent up brent up about 1. 6 . Lets get out to our next guest. Dave ernsberger. First, what do you think could come of this emergency opec plus meeting . Caller good morning. It is worth pausing to reflect on what amazing times we live in when the president of the United States calls for oil intervention from opec and russia it is quite a high wire act people are trying to pull off here it was an alliance falling apart never to be rebuilt. The pressure couldnt be more massive. Pressure rallied on the glimmer of a hope and tweet. Imagine if this doesnt come off. We were headed towards a dire situation. It wont take much to disappoint many of those opec meetings are stage managed. After the debacle of the last meeting in vienna, they wouldnt hold another one unless they were confident of the result or would they it is hard to say it was a debacle last time opec is no stranger to meetings that can go poorly i think they want to be certain there is a positive outlook. They want to be certain russia is on board. Russia is not rushing to give those assurances if they dont come up with a deal, saudi and russia are saying they can produce as cheap as anyone. Is the u. S. Shale industry in terminal decline if we are trading between 25 and 30 wti caller we were seeing prices in midland texas of 10 earlier. It is a sharp decline. The question is how long will it below . Thats the question for the shale industry there is an ability to weather the storm but nothing like these. For russia for that matter the u. S. Shale industry will be in dire straights, no doubt about that theyll be hoping for the correction they can certainly come out in the top positions in the sprint. What is your thoughts about this opec plus plus floating around in the market now caller i would be floored if that happened. If there was a u. S. Move with russia, i would be staggered the russian perspective on this, what insight we know there was a very embarrassing issue whether russia or the saudis wanted to fall out obviously trump is doing his best to stitch this together here are the russians game . Caller Vladimir Putin will go down as one of the great strategists. They love Nothing Better than holding all the cards, pulling all the strings and being the center of power. I dont think it suits them. If you look at the last year, theyve been playing it cagey for more than a year now theyve already cast out effect on on the 10 million barrel a day or 15 million barrel a day they are not wrong they are getting there they are playing it cagey. Their right to do so it suits them geopolitically it is also the right answer for them thank you for that, dave. The global head of pricing and Market Insight for s p global plate. We have a flash coming through from the singapore Prime Minister this is an announcement of extensive lockdown part of Cnbc International our asian headquarters out of singapore. The message we are getting from the Prime Minister now, the new measures will go into effect for one month. We will close most work places except for essential services and key sectors. The measures will be effective for next tuesday well move to full homebased learning in schools and higher education. The preschool and Student Care Centers will be closed we are tightening restrictions on the movement of people and gatherings of people people will about requested to stay at home as much as possible and asked not to socialize with others beyond your immediate household. Avoid visiting with extended family particularly if they are older or vulnerable. The Prime Minister says go out only to do essential things here in many ways, this replicates the kind of lockdowns weve seen in many European Countries and what we saw take place in china. This signals a worry because singapore was known as one of the best because of the strict measures, they were able to control it now they are coming out with these much harsher measure, they are clearly struggling to control. This could implicate the rest of the world who hasnt responded as well in the initial crisis. A couple of lines here, we are rethinking our advice on face masks this has been at the heart of a debate in america and here in the uk and other parts as to the effectiveness of face masks. Both to stop you from infecting others and from being infected by others. The singapore Prime Minister says we will no longer discourage people from Wearing Masks and they are considering further measures to assist businesses at this point lets talk about the uk for a moment there was a celebration again last night for those on the front line the applause for nhs workers who are dealing with covid19 patients members of the public just banging with wooden spoons, applauding and setting off fire works as a way to say shaunk well be right back. [ one more time by daft punk ] woo [ laughing ] woo play pop music no way dude, play rock music yeah woah no matter what music you like, stream it now on pandora with xfinity. And dont forget to catch trolls world tour. Lets party people one more time just a quick segment here to say the new five pillar strategy relies on the following for testing, swab testing, partners, lab work, blood testing to find out who is immune, who has the antibodies. We are hearing there hasnt been enough testing in the united kingdom. Well hear more later as well. That is the new strategy as we have a huge number of deaths 569 overnight taking the total to 2,921 well take a short break well look at the uk pmi service data ill leave you with a shot over the london time line from where i stand. Welcome back to street signs. Im Geoff Cutmore. And im Julianna Tatelbaum. Services wipeout the lowest point since the ihs survey began sinking to a deeper recession amid a record rally hes created significant cut. Putting in further restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. Unveiling a 100 billion work scheme luxembourgs financial minister says spending is crucial the answer is to invest, invest, invest thats what europe is going to do just reinforcing this image around europe that we have of lockdowns leading to suspensions. Lets go to the break down, 36 against 37. 1 flash in terms of the um, lets have a look the final services figure. That was 34. 5. The numbers in the services and Manufacturing Sector dropping at the fastest pace for more than a decade according to ihs, which compiles the information lets take a look at what this means for market european markets are lower. After yesterday, they managed to draw some gains. The dax is down about a third a percent. Selling has accelerated. Cac 40 is down investors digesting those Dismal Services numbers contracting with the worst reading eve seen since the survey began so confirmation of the collapse in Business Activity as countries go into lockdown to fight the spread of the virus. Lets look at european yields. The germ yan 10year trading at 4. 4. Different with italian at 1. 5 and in france, about five basis points u. S. Futures, the key focal point, millions filing for unemployment today, well get the nonfarm payroll report the dow looking at a tripledigit drop if those hold. A spending scheme to support those countries hard hit the socalled shore fund based on the german model of reducing hours rather than reducing jobs calling it European Solidarity in action. We spoke to the european vice to ee when he shout it would improve. Our plan is to preserve as much as possible economy and companies to stay in the market to preserve jobs so that we maintain the capacity and once we have that under control will help the speedy recovery of the economy why we are putting in the resources now to help protecting jobs. We spoke to the leader in luxembourg who said spending is the only answer. The focus is not only on debt relief but making sure we invest enough in the future in our infrastructure, digitalization, health care. What weve learned from the crisis of 2008 is exactly that if you put too much emphasis on reducing the debt too quickly, you have a recession and a strong one we should not do that mistake. The answer is after the sanitary crisis to invest, invest, invest thats what europe is going to do the global head of debt Capital Market ubs is joining us now to talk about global debt markets. Thank you for being with us. What is happening. Weve seen record investment grid out of u. S. In recent weeks. Who is buying up these bonds and how long will the boom last . Caller good morning. Thank you for having me. You are right. Record volume and who would have thought among all the volatility we have seen but it is sad to say, we are bringing in record more 6 650 billion issuance. In europe, it is probably about 5 up. That is quite amazing. What about in the highyield space . What will happen to Companies Issuing sub Investment Grade debt youve seen a surge of Investment Grade issuance. What about those companies further down in terms of credit worthiness caller it is sad to say the recent issuance has been led by the ig market. If you look at the comparison yeartoyear, we are still up. We are twice the volume weve seen this year we are just approaching around 20 billion. In the dollar market, we are about 20 up the high yield market came a hold closer to what the Broader Market is doing. Weve seen with the rescue transaction, very successfully two times over subscribed. A lot of haves and have notes. They used to talk to the can arry in the coal mine how much pressure to look at the Energy Sector . Caller you are right the Energy Sector has been the hardest hit. On the other side, clearly the opportunities lie as we go ahead and we try to find the stability in the Broader Market. We saw yesterday, shale and bp successful transaction while the oil price has been under immense pressure, youve seen the bounce overnight. Ive seen the opportunity go forward as well. Is it your read that weve seen the peek so far in financial asset market volatility caller im sure well see more volatility going on i do believe weve seen the white in the credit market from the global banks pouring money into the system, all of these measures working to the favor of the credit market in that regard, we are probably better spaced in the credit space. I do expect well hit the bottom again. In terms of where you look for guaranteed return on your capital, if you are willing to participate. How important is it to understand which parts of the market are qe supported and which parts arent in this stage . Caller no doubt the market is to the point to understand it is supported you will have better liquidity youll see clear diversion the first was targeted once that is too far, then the opportunities in the nonsupported space, particularly as we come out of the volatile period and try to go into the recovery period, then this is where the opportunity probably medium to long termite lie the final one to me this is along the situation of debt what about in the secondary market getting to true discovery. Sad to say that in the midst of the opportunity. That being said, in the face of the recovery or better to stay the stability, that being said, it is the primary market in the end that shows where it comes together like during the financia crisis, it is the primary market that brings that confidence back, it brings the investment back armin peter, good to have you on the program lets move on, within the hour, weve had news out of singapore. The Prime Minister has announced the closure of schools and most businesses in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus. There is more detail on this lets bring in rose anna with more on the story from singapore. Take us through the measures weve had an announcement from the Prime Minister. The city state will close most work placesexcept for key essential businesses starting on tuesday. Schools will be shut from wednesday. The government called on residents to be responsible, stay home and only go outside for essential things some Key Banking Services will going to remain open theyll announce Additional Support next week over and above what was earlier provided. The announcement coming as singapore reported its fifth death today. Infections in the country currently topping 1,000. They say the measures will be in place for one month. Back to you. Thank you for joining us with that fresh news. You can follow us on twitter street signscnbc and also directly at Geoff Cutmore and julianna. More on the jobless claims numbers after the break. Y olay. Just one jar of microsculpting cream has the hydrating power of 5 jars of a prestige cream, which helps plump skin cells and visibly smooth wrinkles. While new olay retinol24. Provides visibly smoother, brighter skin. For dramatic skincare results, try olay. And now receive 25 off your purchase at olay. Com brand power. Helping you buy better. Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Jobless claims nearly at 10 million for the second half of march before this month. The highest level was 600,000 in the early 1980s. The key nonfarm payroll number is seen dropping by 10,000 others have placed the decline at as much as 100,000. The forecast said to rise 3. 7 the growth in ourhourly earning expected to fall to 0. 2 and a report of the hit in the short term caller we are expecting severe contraction at the Second Quarter and the start to the gdp in the Third Quarter the question is, what is the rebound. Manufacturing has been sluggish. The bright spot has been the consumer clearly, the consumer is going to come out of this weakened from what weve had in the past. Lets bring in our next guest, chief economist and managing director. Joining us on the conversation so 10 million americans reportedly out of work what has been so much worse here why are so many more filing than predicted . Only because there was no way to forecast what this number would be we dont need to know a number we need to know that it is big the question is not what it is but what theyll continue to run at this pace whether well continue to see 10 million new claims every two weeks or whether weve gone to the bottom and thats it i fear that the numbers will continue to get worse for another couple of weeks. If we see the current pace of jobless claims continue, is the current stimulus package enough or will we need to see even more measures come in to protect workers here i dont know. As an economist that is old enough to admit, i dont know. We cango back. That will be the change and adapt for policymakers and businesses we further more dont note impact of the Financial System if people dont pay rent and landlords dont pay mortgages. Banks have to back mortgages and securities fall into a black hole there is no clear point how we get out of this. I hope you are well there on the politics. I know you are an economist. Someone said, the only two numbers the president cares about is unemployment and the dow. Both look ghastly at the moment. What do you think the political ramifications will be on this later in the year with the election it is hard to snow because i dont have a crystal ball. If the economy comes out of this well, that will be good for the president. If a lot of businesses fail, if banks fail, if Mortgage Backed securities fail, if there is an overseas failure, japan could fail and disrupt the global Financial System that is a core risk right now that a weak foreign partner gets in trouble and brings down the system, that will be tougher the history has a mixed experience dealing with crisis we have to see President Trump if he can rise through this to appeal to his own base i dont know the answer to that because i dont know where the economy is going you mentioned the blitz of 1940 the stock market crashed and there after the 1948 plan. Both of those take years and years to create jobs and public works. Even if the Trump Administration gets a plan up and going, will he get the benefit of it i agree with you, there are reasons to be skeptical. There will not be a quick fix to this is an experiment weve never done stop the economy for a few months and see if we can get it restarted. I do think wartime analogies are appropriate. We are fighting a war against the virus. We heard general crystal talking about what is happening in boston in wartime terms if we can get into a wartime footing, there is a lot we can do during the blitz of the production manufacturing and feeding its people if we can get on the right footing, we can power our way through this and in some period of time come back. I cant tell you when that period even begins because i dont know when the period of contraction and downward trend will end we are really afloat right now we talked about the u. S we spent a lot of time on the programs this morning focusing on the eurozone response most of those weve spoken to, the finance minister, the Vice President of the commission itself believe they are showing sufficient response to cushion the blow on domestic economies what is your read . Probably that europe will be a little slower than north america and the uk i will point out that the social safety net in europe and in the uk is higher than in the United States we have a lot more of the parttime work programs. We have more from the ppe package supposed to roll out today but will be delayed. We have Health Insurance being universal in europe and the uk that is the big difference between europe and the uk in the United States. If you lose your job in the United States, you lose your Health Benefits and any chance of being able to afford to buy private health care, so we compound the Health Crisis as unemployment numbers go up that is a big difference we have many countries in europe encouraging, telling the banks that they must indulge in payment holidays for mortgages and others we are seeing huge applications for these. The message is, you need to do this to keep the loans from being delinquent are you hearing and seeing the same in the u. S. Yes we are hearing banks being willing to work with customers it is 2008 all over again. So the bank will say to the customer, it is okay we are not going to make you make your mortgage payment this month. Just reading chase, we are there for you. Thank you very much. When the securities that are leveraged off of these, fail to perform because the payments are not coming in. We have defaults which is worse, then the owners will reprice them regardless of the policy and in order for them making it work. The Housing Market fell, that was bad. Securities leveraged off took out the Financial System that is a risk that is still vulnerable to the fact that weve secured our debt obligation and now that that is coming back to bite us appreciate you being with us. Chief manager High Frequency economist. Later today, well speak with nancy pelosi this afternoon. New york and new jersey are key hot spots of the outbreak according to white house advisor. These arent the only areas that concern officials. For more head to our website lets look at wti and brent. Brent up 4. 2 . A concern that opec plus producers are debating 10 million barrel cuts a day. That is it for us today. Im Julianna Tatelbaum and im Geoff Cutmore wherever you are watching from, y ve a great weekend trand relax. Well catch up with you on monday Worldwide Exchange is coming up next. [ one more time by daft punk ] woo [ laughing ] woo play pop music no way dude, play rock music yeah woah no matter what music you like, stream it now on pandora with xfinity. And dont forget to catch trolls world tour. Lets party people one more time breaking news, wall street set to end the week on a sour note as the number of covid19 cases surges past the 1 million mark for the first time as President Trump moves the production act as 3m and others ramp up production of medical equipment. Key Oil Executives decen