Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240713

Though still awaits aprooul from the house of rep sentives. That vote expected tomorrow. Jobless claims surging above 3 million americans, far outpacing the record of 700,000 and also well above what economists were looking for around 1. 5 million unemployment claims and the virus itself remains front and center for wall street as italy reports more than 6,000 new cases, the most in five days, the worldwide total now shy of half a Million People wilfred. All of the sectors of the s p higher up 4. 7 . All higher, but one to keep an eye on is energy it has been the best performing. Its now towards the bottom. Still up by 4 oil prices slipped a lot this afternoon. Theyre down 7 , so well hope that doesnt drag the rest of the market lower weve got a huge lineup of gu guesting coming your way, ceo of General Mills, plus peter orszag whether he thinks the stimulus bill is enough to ease the pleading and well speak with the ceo of hertz about their program the give free rentals to new York City Health care workers and will they need help from the government. Lets focus in on the big stories today. Mike is tracking the market rally. Kayla is covering a new move from the white house to assess the risk of the virus and Steve Liesman is covering todays h historic jobless numbers, but first, to you on the jobless market its almost an equal and opposite reaction to the sharp plunge weve had almost vertical gain of about 18 in the s p 500 from the lows three days ago its opposite in direction look at though what were trying to make up if you look at a longterm chart of the s p 500, that decline, that 30 one month decline essentially plunged right below the overall uptrend line from the 2009 low, so it really just laid waste to that entire trend and now this bounce, its hard to see there, but on the right, this bounce is almost written on the same line higher and its almost back to that line so maybe this is just one of many of these points along the way that we might have a test of what this index is doing right now. So a lot of times i think the traders are making the point the last ten or 15 to the downside looked like a slight overschutte based on what we know about financial conditions whats leeting the way everythings up. If you look at the nasdaq 100 against the russell 2000, kind of like megagrowth quality the russell is lead iing the wa. It makes sense thats usually the way it goes lower quality, beaten up the most on the way down those tend to leave on the way up it doesnt necessarily mean thats going to be the rule if that rally should builden on itself and carry higher. Definitely tests to come for this rally if we gain a few more percents and mike, stepping way from e equities, i guess the only ongoing concern based just simply on the last two or three days performance is oil prices because otherwise, we have seen an improvement in credit weve seen a big improvement in sovereign spreads in italy treasuries holook calm and the dollar down another 1. 7 today, which is an encouraging sign relative to what had driven it up over the course of the last several weeks. Thats a big tension release because it had been the reverse before that, so i think most things lined up. At least for this kind of relief move it doesnt necessarily mean that the market is anything like suggesting an all clear, but just that things got overdone in the shortterm and remain open minded about whether this is just a bounce or the market trying to say that theres a bottom well see you in a bit. President trump today telling the nations governors that the white house will classify counties by risk to determine where coronavirus test kits are distributed. Kayla has more on that story the white house is trying to craft a proposal that would allow for a nuanced reopening of the u. S. Economy by regions, by county, but certain areas that are posed as low risk. In a letter to the nations governors, President Trump shedding a little light on how this would work and what his mind set is now. In this letter, he wrote our expanded testing capabilities will quickly allow us to publish criteria developed in close coordination with Public Health officials to help classify counties with risk counties under this plan would be classifieded as low, medium and high risk and social distancing guidelines would be either relaxed or intensified based on that risk here in washington as we await the passage by the house of this stimulus bill that will provide 2 trillion in relief, theres now talk of a new potential fourth package and who would get the benefit from that. I spoke to a Senior Administration official who said cruise lines were an industry that could seek a fix in a future package because the industry doesnt believe it qualifies for any of the loan facilities as it is written now m unclear whether that would seek bipartisan support with Many Democrats angry about offshore registration and the fact that many employees at these cruise lines are not u. S. Citize citizens other things that were left on the u cutting room floor, the Trump Administration didnt get the money to buy the oil, to add to the emergency reserves. Thats one reason youre seeing oil down today Postal Service getting far less than they had been seeking well see if thats an area where we get additional money in a future package, too. Those are sort of the losers as a result of this bill what about the industries and businesses an individuals that stand to gain from it . Well the treasury secretary said today that mesh americans who qualify for the direct Cash Payments will see those directly got deposited within the next three weeks and there are several dimpt loan programs. You have the Treasury Department shepparding to airlines and businesses with National Security implications then the Federal Reserve which will will standing up 450 billion plus facility to businesses of all sizes. And then you also have the loans through the Small Business administration and companies, regional and Community Banks that will have those loan. So slirn if youre a potentially qualifying business, you should look through the text and see what you might qualify for to that point about the lending, so much is through special set up type vehicles as opposed to forcing the banks to loan and in that sense, i think most of the analysts of f the Bank Stocks Take this as a positive for the sector because there are more capital relaxing of rules going with the liquidity injection theyve seen in recent weeks without also forcing them to make loans they wouldnt want to do. The banks angel cyst says its a big difference to the past is theyre a big part of the solution i think one other issue with regard to the relaxing, yes, regulators wanted banks to be able to participate in these loan program to a greater degree than they might have been able to, but youve also seen so many name brand American Companies like ford downgraded to junk ratings. Companies who had Sterling Credit several months earlier who are now seeing their credit deteriorated because of the cash flow situation so many of these companies are in they wanted to make sure banks could continue to lend to those companies and keep those relationships alive and not trip things like leverage ratios, which might have been prohibitive. Thanks so much for that turning now to the big number of the day. The historic tally of jobless claims Steve Liesman has more on that steve. Yeah, not in the worst moments of economic history in the United States in the post war period have we seen anything like the one week rise in unemployment claims that the government reported today. Not the shock of the 70s. Not in the rate increases of the 1980s, the dot com bust or even the financial crisis up 3. 2 million, double the estimate, five times the previous record, for a single week of a rise in jobless claims and it came after a very slight rise last week now 3. 2 million and the biggest problem here is that many economists say it means theres probably a lot worse to come for the u. S. Economy lets take a look inside the claims number here and ill show you some of the things theyre looking at first of all, its a measure of those who applied for claims then about the process of the surge in claims. It might be bigger there are also efforts by employees to retain workers initially. Well see how long that lasts and if the stimulus bill can help with that some of the responses weve gotten from economists, oxford writing very ominously, we foresee 15 to 20 million job losses with the Unemployment Rate surging above 10 in april, saying the Unemployment Rate likely to go into double digits here so what could stop all this bad stuff from happening well, you have a tremendous fiscal response that kayla was talking about. A speedy Federal Reserve response with more to come than ive been talking about, but most say it is the path of the virus and the Public Health response to it that will ultimately determine if we have some sort of short, sharp downturn here when and a quick rebound or something more protacted. And steve, to your point about the big stimulus package, Steven Mnuchin this morning on squawk on the street suggesting that this weeks print isnt as important because the stimulus package hasnt got to work yet. How many weeks can we expect, if mnuchins point is correct, how many weeks can we expect the numbers remain worringly high and it not be a concern that the stimulus package isnt working yet . Well, its possible that some employers hold on to workers given that this loan is is out there. These b possible loans are out there, which are forgiven if you retain your workers, so its possible they could do that in future belief that theyre going to get some assistance, but i think youre going to have people lose money. Theyre going to lose their jobs and theyre going come and apply for these unemployment benefits. The only possible Silver Lining here is you want people who need assistance to come to the government and apply for it. If its there for them unemployment claims is the first line of defense in what is relatively in america, a. Reporter very meager safety net. So theyre going to get some money then after the stimulus bill, theyll get additional funds. So thats going to help. So when you see these numbers go up, its a terrible, terrible sign, but it also means that people are in the process of getting some assistance. Yeah, theyre going to get longer assistance which i think is part of the bill. Steve, when you think about the other side, once you make it to the other side of this Virus Outbreak, how many, do we know what percentage or what chunk of these jobs are furloughs and could come back easily without companies actually having gone out of business like mall stores for instance which have temporary closures you ask a great question and let me give you quick twopart response one is the entire effort now thats going on with this bill and what the fed is is doing is to keep a process of idling stores and workers to not become a process of firing workers and shuttering stores. Theres a race going on between that on the other hand, what happens when you have shocks to the economy is trends in the economy are accelerated. You already had problems with malls and restale stores and the competition they faced from online sales, so whats going to happen is thats going to be accelerated and i think were going to have some protacted downturn as a result of that plus, the after effects of the psyche of the consumer and business from this shock could mean greater save, more plan aing for rainy days so you may not have such robust Consumer Spending so were trying to keep things status quo, but its going to be unlike ly we remerge unscathed. Thanks so much for that weve got about 47 minutes left to trade and we are up 4. 4 on the s p 500. After the break, peter orszag will join us live. His take on the massive stimulus bill and the administrations response thus far. Were back in a couple of minutes. You should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. Make ice. Making ice. But youre not mad because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad get e trade and start Trading Commission free today. Dont get mad get e trade and start trading i know that every time that i suit up, there is a chance that thats the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. I might be crazy but im not stupid. Having an annuity tells me that im protected. During turbulent times, consider protected Lifetime Income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan. This can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. Learn more at protectedincome. Org. We sunleashing the promisegas of clean energy. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. About 43 minutes left to go. Heres a check on the markets. Industrials having a nice day, up almost 4 or 800 points s p roughly the same actually at a higher gain in percentage terms the nasdaq up 269 and russell lead iing them all up nearly 5 . Lets check on some individual market movers. Shares of slack higher by 8 today. The ceo tweeting that the company has seen inkrecreased demand as more employees work from home amid this outbreak as of yesterday, the platform saw 12. 5 milliconnected users. This is after 10 million two week ago and sigocisignet jewel suspending dividend for the 2021 year because of potential outbreak of the Virus Outbreak shares are higher by 28 sara, you spoke with the ceo earlier. Whats the take away there what she showed today was that the company had its best Holiday Season in b about four years so, the market is clearly rewarding her for that but then came covid19 and whats happened really shows you whats happening with retail across america they had to close all of their stores temporarily a lot of these stores are in mall more than 3200 stores around the globe and she told me that theyre prioritizing other discretionary costs when it comes to cost cutting. But that they are going to have to announce furloughs for the folks that cant man the stores. This is an example of a company thats trying to man through the showing some fruit in the quart quarter. Yeah, and as you said, down 30 or so. S p 500, up 4. 5 41 minutes left of the session now the senate officially passed a the trillion relief package in an attempt to stem the economy. Joining us now, ceo of Financial Advisory pat lazard. Very good afternoon to you thanks for joining us. Good to be with you clearly also this morning, we saw a massive jump in unemployment claims. Secretary mnuchin said this morning in an interview on cnbc he thought that would be temporary. And that the stimulus bill would reverse it do you agree i agree its going to help. This is a massive piece of legislation thats warranted this is different than 2008 and 2009 because it is so sudden and so severe and the unemployment claims uptick, underscores that and its also a supply shock in addition to its more complicated and im very pleased to see that policymakers in congress are acting so aggressively to try to blunt the damage here. Theres a lot of legislation but how its implemented is going to matter a lot well you were there, peter. You were in the Obama Administration 2009, 2010, as we were getting out of the Great Recession there. What lessons do you think you can offer from t. A. R. P. And the bailouts that were executed at that point and what were dealing with right now first, let me give kudos here it took us two months basically to put together the stimulus legislation in early 2009. This was done basically in a week and again, thats really commendable especially given how polarized washington is today. So congress in a sense has done its part now what the Administration Needs to do is a few things. First of all, you need to pay a lot of attention theres going to be guidance coming out with regard to how to implement a lot of these new programs for example, theres up to 450 billion in new funding for programs that the fed and treasury will administer but not a lot of guidance in terms of how it will work the definitions that for companies that will qualify so on and so forth. Well get more detail next week. But in lessons weve learned, it takes a lot of effort to make sure these things are administered there will be fraud. Thats part of the occasion. Trying to minimize that is really important especially given the potential longterm damage from not providing support now, the most important thing is for the administration to focus on getting this money out the door quickly to people and companies that need it peter, how long can this stimulus package and what weve seen from the Federal Reserve keep the economy going for if this prolongs the health issues, prolongs a lockdown, past three months. Do we need another bill . A couple of things on that. First, i think the biggest risk at this point given that congress has acted, the fed is acting, is to undo the social distancing too soon and there by prolong the Health Crisis and economic distress. Theres research out just today from economists at the Federal Reserve and at m. I. T. Studying what happened in the 1918 spanish flu epidemic, pandemic, showing that its the disease itself that causes the economic damage and the cities in the United States that acted more aggressively to socially distance and take other steps to try to tamp down the pandemic did better from an Economic Perspective so, the biggest risk and the thing that would prolong the difficulty here is undoing the progress that weve made too soon even though i know that seems very appealing seems very appealing to say lets just go back to the way things were, but if you havent actually solved the medical problem, its a false solution so partly, the answer to your question is going to depend what we do on the health side and whether were patient enough to wait until theres an effective antiviral or treatment and Antibody Test and other things that will allow us to go back to some degree of normality in business interactions. But not do so prematurely. Peter, this idea that the government can save the workers. To what extent is that true . As you start to see the jobless claims go up in the millions how much can government really do here when it comes to Unemployment Insurance and preserving jobs when theyre handing out stance to these industries heres the thing. This is a great example of where frankly only the government can do it. So im not sure that the governments going to provide a perfect solution here. And by the way, obviously this is not just a problem in the United States. Its governments across Continental Europe and el where undertaking similar measures, but its only forcible Government Action when hit with a shock of this size that lets us even have a shot or a chance of mitigating the damage to a significant degree again, im encouraged by how quickly and forcefully the fed and congress are acting here you could have imagined a much different scenario where were in the midst of this Health Crisis and policymakers are kind of you know doawdling oe indawdg to wilfreds question, there may have to come additional stimulus and by the way, thats one thing that is worth noting, which is last time we assume it had there could be another round, this time there may with well happen to be another round and policymakers need to be more cooperative and expect that that may happen because the way they wrote this legislation doesnt automatically extend even if the economic difficulty extends. So a lot of the provisions are only in place for a short, certain period of time and if the economic difficulty persists, we are going to need another round and again, the best wii of avoiding that situation is not to reverse ourselves on the social distancing prematurely will m and a drop off a clip or some cheap prices there enough to spur some deals to be made theres a lot of different forces going on. Both in m and a and restructuringing we are nonstop in terms of working with clients who are trying to sort through a lot of these ambiguities. I think its too soon to know. On m and a, in part because of the factors i was mepgsing before it depending on how long the Health Crisis goes on and therefore how long the economic distress is. Peter, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. Weve got 33 minutes left of trade before the closing bell and stocks are rallying for a third day in a row take a look at the major averages, dows up almost 1,000 points 4. 5 s p with a nice nearly 5 gain nasdaq up 4 and the russell 2000 up 5, up 10 over a week. Still ahead, nielsen says sells of Breakfast Cereals are up 50 as americans are stocking up at the grocery. Well talk to the ceo of General Mills about the swell of demand and how the company is trying to meet it. Our coverage is back after a a quick break. We segetting to patientscines in record time. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Danafarber Cancer Institute discovered the pdl1 pathway. Pdl1. They changed how the world fights cancer. Blocking the pdl1 protein, lets the immune system attack, attack, attack cancer. Pdl1 transformed, revolutionized, immunotherapy. Pdl1 saved my life. Saved my life. Saved my life. What we do here at danafaber, changes lives everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Welcome back with the dow up more than 960 points, cat pill lear join ihr a growing list of guidance and now the sec is making it easier for companies to delay their earnings reports bob . You know, sarah, were going to go into earnings season in b about two weeks and one of the reasons were seeing such gyrations in the stock market, 1,000 points a day is because nobody has new clues of what the earnings will be in the first and second quarters. So were seeing a growing number of companies not just for the quarter, but for the year 2020, just recently, the big airplane manufacturer, signet, wendys, whirlpool. Just the last 24 hours, target, twitter. A whole list got about 22 companies now in the s p. Mastercard, deere, best buy, marriott, starbucks. The list goes on and on. Now whats going to happen in the next few weeks once Companies Come out with their commentary, the number of companies declining to provide full year guidance is going to go up dramatically many will supply guide down or conservatively for the first and second quarters and not provide full year guidance, but more importantly, in the last couple of days, the sec has provided some cover for these companies by essentially allowing them a procedural method where they could delay not just providing guidance, but filing their quarterly reports, which they are required to do by law. This has been one of the things that the sec has required since the 1930s. Quarterly reports. Theyre going to be able under certain circumstances to take 45day extensions, march 1st and july 1st and i anticipate Many Companies will take advantage of that so its going to be tough figuring out earnings and thats why stocks keep gyrating it is the banks kick things off april 14 very much looking forward to that bob, thanks so much. Were up 5 on the s p 500 over 1,000 points again on the dow with b about 28 minutes left in the session is. Coming up, well find out how short sellers are navigating the wild volatility when we speak with carson block and heres a check in on bonds. Yields moving low. 0. 83 . Twoyear note, 0. 23. Back in a couple of minutes. Yes. Its the first word of any new discovery. But when allergies attack, the excitement fades. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. Heres whats driving the action the Senate Passing the stimulus package although it waits approval from the house. Thats expected tomorrow jobless claims surged above 3 million, far outpacing the previous record of just around 700,000 and that was well above estimates that there would be maybe 1. 5 million claims and the virus, italy reports more than 6,000 new cases, the most if five days. Worldwide total is just shy of half a million thanks so much for that time for a coronavirus update with sue herera. Hello, everyone and we have more numbers this afternoon. French officials reporting 365 new deaths since yesterday a steep 27 increase from the previous day and those numbers only include deaths in hospitals. Officials are working adding deaths in Retirement Homes which they say will result in a big increase in National Figures as the new numbers continue to rise, officials have begun evacuating people with the virus by using a high speed train equipped with medical equipment. The tvg medical train, one of the first in europe, transporting at least 20 patients this morning from the hardest hit region in france here at home, two cruise ships arriving in miami with some 30 sick crew members on board Health Care Work eers in full protective gear ready to meet the crew who were transported from the ship by the u. S. Coast guard. But even as the numbers of new cases continue to rise here in the u. S. , local authorities expressing frustration as people ignore orders to stay home in chicago, police were forced d to use vehicles and blockades to keep people away from the lake front. The police chief saying theyll start issuing tickets if people dont comply as always u get more on cnbcs coronavirus by going to cnbc. Com sara, back to you. All right, thank you very much, sue herera 23 minutes left of trading here is where we stand session high for the s p 500 was up about 5. 1 so were not far from that. Dows up 891 points. Third day in a row that socks are gaining. First time weve seen that in about seven or six weeks or so looking to hold that 22,000 level on the dow were sitting above it now up next, short seller, csoarn block, weighs in on the market volatility well be right back. Dont get mad. Get e trade, dawg. When i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. It is already working in cities like tokyo. Wewithout the planet cooler getting warmer. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. But when allergies attack,f any the excitement fades. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Yourbut as you get older,thing. It naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. Thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. The secret is an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. At a time of extreme volatility, some European Countries have banned shortselling in hopes of stemming losses, however, noted short seller carson block writing an oped today entitled bans on shortselling are hand swrouts to the corporate socialists he joins us by phone and mike also with us you know the argument. We heard this in 2008 where the sec temporarily banned shortselling of some of the financial firms. It just made matters worse that you guys are just out there in the shortterm trying to destabilize companies. Whats your defense . Well, number one. There are barely any short sellers left i dont know why theres this thought that in these markets which with the liquidity they have, that short sellers who have so little capital can deb stabilize anything to me, its as best a solution in search of a problem but what they did resernl on after the financial crisis, the new york Federal Reserve in 2012 published a study of what the shortselling ban did during the financial crisis and in 2011 in europe and they found that it actually reduced mark market liquidity and increased trading costs, so while it had little effect on price, it doesnt stem market route and hurts liquidity. I would pause this and this is really based on you know my understanding of markets and how things work, but it actually reduces appetite if you ban shortselli shortselling, it reduces appetite for risk taking on the long side because in periods such as these, it becomes hard to hold on to long positions if youre going to see all this volatility so if you feel like you can hedge out the beta by going short, then that would you know, stand to reason youre more likely to hold on to your long positions at least in full size. So its been shown to not reduce route but to actually reduce liquidity. And i understand that analysis, carson it makes sense that allowing people to hedge positions can continue to permit them to take in volatile times. Although its not totally relevant to the current market, would you admit when you take current positions, its not just the hedge long positions, its because you are wishing and hoping a Company Goes Bust were a direction at short seller let me correction myself here. Im actually, we generally run Market Neutral so if we are going to shortd something buying long positions that dollar per dollar off set the short. So every time were shorting, were pretty much out there buying something long. So to your point, if we are going to start to short this company, well, yes, we are obviously hoping the market remisses it. I dont really think the campaigns of any activists, they dont center on such as well, we think the future isnt so great because theres more composition coming its really, this is a Management Team that has misled investors or outright lied to investors. Heres the reality and i dont think market routs or volatility are an excuse for management not to be held accountable soif were going launch a campaign tomorrow, thats because theres a Management Team that we feel has done something wrong. Yeah. I mean mike, theres just something about a bad taste of people who profit when the market is tumbling people are losing their jobs and economic pain is spreading such that it makes matters worse. What do you think the appetite is in this country for Something Like that . I think the emotional response is understand u people, the world is net long stocks therefore when markets go down a lot, people have broadly taken losses, but i see this kind of short sellers is a stage of every market downturn. Essentially people looking for scapegoats even though it was a comprehensive rout it wasnt as if the heavily shorted stocks went down more. It wasnt about that you could point to people pile ong the short stock. Honest ly, i think what people f theres any specific thing people are objecting to, it might be that the machines that sell Index Futures to ride the momentum lower and thats not really what you can, where the intention goes so i see it more as a stage of a panic and sentiment process that always comes out you know people saying that someone must be at lane and point to short sellers. Its usually ineffectual and really doesnt reflect whats going on in the market thanks for joining us final thought, sorry, go ahead, carson i get the emotional component. But you know, nobodys crying for short sellers when we get squeezed in the middle of a 12year bull market either so and look, i guess if theres one final thing that the people want to keep in their thought ifs theyre trying to think logically about this in addition to the imperical evidence is we just committeded spending about 2 trillion. If i can have a decent year this year and pay some taxes, thats not the worst thing in the world as far as the u. S. Treasury is concerned. Carson block, we appreciate it thanks for joining us. Thanks. Up next, well bring you uninterrupted coverage of the final minutes of trade when we take you inside the market zone where our 4. 3 with 13 minutes left and tomorrow, ill speak in a first on cnbc interview with the Vice President , mike pence, 10 15 a. M. Eastern time. Back in a couple of minutes. Of trading goods and services. Nasdaq operates among the largest markets in the world. And our Technology Powers markets from indonesia to chile. Great markets are built on a foundation of trust and integrity, forged through leading Edge Technology and a smart regulatory framework. As technology advances, regulation must keep pace to allow the markets to evolve. Today we see an opportunity to modernize regulation, to make markets more accessible to investors and entrepreneurs of all sizes. 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For the session, we are close to session highs now in the closing bell market zone commercial free coverage mike is here to break down these crucial moments of the day as always and today weve got cnbc contributor, stephanie link as well lets kick it off with a Broader Market check and three big names on cnbc giving a pretty bullish outlook on stocks listen bear markets tend to end with a recession so we think the bear markets ending. We think weve been scaling back into stocks and were not going to kacatch the bottom exact and wepg this is probably best risk reward weve seen for investors in two years i think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks at bargain prices the great investor sir john temp templeton said to always buy when theres maximum pessimism no doubt, the stock market will rally it should rally. My guess is well be higher three or four months from now than low er than where we are now. Obviously all big names and mike wilson is interesting because he was one of the most bearest equities strategists now saying this is sort of a huge opportunity from a risk reward standpoint but what are you doing its encouraging to listen to all three. Theyre good longterm investors. I have been nibbling trying to upgrade quality in my portfolio so i clearly agree all three. I know were going to get through this, its just a matter of when so im just trying to think six, eight, ten montes down the road. I did get more aggressive this week especially after mondays fed move because it was radical, necessary. It providedly quidty to the bond market and helped to stem the outflows i think if that instilled confidence to the system its not perfect yet but it will get better and as we know, the bond market is an important part of the Economic Foundation so you needed to get that right and then we can now then talk about the fiscal side. But im a little bit more encouraged this week versus the past couple of weeks mike made a positive case then ended it by saying its the best risk reward hes seen for two years and two years isnt a particularly long time frame when you consider quite the scale of impeachment people have had to take to get us in thats a fair point i think its difficult to nearly say that all of a sudden, this big drop of 30 this four weeks got the market down to some bedrock level of cheapness the loss came so quickly and you had several types of traders who said this looks like an opportunity for an upturn got way too oversold if youre long er term, thats just the way the discipline works and a lot of that is working together now none of these folks said by the way, we hit the down tick to the absolute penny on monday and that was the low and im going to defend that point. It was more than were in the zone where it makes sense to add equity risk because guess what, risk comes out of equities when prices go down its something thats not intuiti intuitive, but its the case thanks so much for that weve got five minutes left of the session and we are near the session highs. At the session highs 1300 points higher on the dow. Its been a volatile day for cruise lines as investors digest the latest stimulus bill seema has the details op that. Seema. Hey, thats right despite President Trump calling the cruise industry a primary candidate for Financial Relief, the cruise lines do not qualify for Financial Aid in this stimulus bill. Many critics including a number of democrats point out that royal caribbean, norwegian cruise line, carnival, are not incorporated in the u. S. And pay little in federal income tax, however they employ over 420,000 americans and are important to states like florida and alaska so the question is whether some type of Financial Relief will be provided down the line this has been a sector that has been hit very hard by coronavirus. Those sailings have been halted until mid may. Wilfred. Theres a headline today, three cruise ships carrying more than 100 people with flu like symptoms headed to florida how is this still happening . Yeah of course a number of actions have been taken by the w. H. O. And the cruise line industry to increase the number of temperature checks and other provisions to make sure they can minimize the risk of infection, but its a hard task to do especially for the cruise line industry where the proximity to other people is certainly much higher than maybe other parts of the travel industry, so it is hard to see why those two ships are headed to port miami now and yes, another sign that you know, individuals with flu like simple toms, not a good time to have that in the anyone of coronavirus. I mean it seems crazy with restaurants and stores shutting down that cruise ships arent doing so thank you. American auto plants updating their shutdown plans today phil lebeau has more on that phil and we just heard from general motos when the last half hour saying the plan to reopen production at the end of this month is going to be pushed out. No date on in terms of when production will resume at gms plants here, but we heard from four others today, basically the same thing theyre all pushing their dates out into april ford is the soonest, considering reopening plans on april 6th there you see honda, chrysler, toyota has pushed it out until april 20th chrysler opened another 3. 8 billion line of credit and were going to see this not only from automakers, but suppliers. Similar to the airlines. They are opening these lines of credit and have the liquidity on hand when they ride out this rough stretch that may be lasting a month, two months, who knows. What weve seen today is just the beginning. Well see more from suppliers and others revising their plans. Guys, back to you. Minutes left of trade mikes been looking into the market internals as always another positive ta here what do you see . Yeah, pretty positive a one way train today. Its reflected in the internals. Look at the advancing versus declining by the New York Stock Exchange i keep pointing out that people like to see an overwhelming amount of upvolume weve got a cluster of them so thats a net positive even though were in the bounce zone over three days. Take a look at something you wouldnt expect, banks and utilities rallying together. This is something that often happens when everything is getting a lift many times, these guys run in contrast, but it shows you two relatively depressed groups gaining. Volatility index still sticky, not willing to decline much below 60 yet thanks for that weve got under a minute left of the session. Just a recap of where the markets stand. S p is up more than 6 dow also more than 6 . Pretty much at the session highs. 1330 points higher nasdaq lags a little bit still have a healthy 5. 4 . All sectors on the s p are higher led by ewe tutilities, r estate, health care, financials. The worst performing sector, Consumer Discretionary and materials are both still up more than 4 . Also seeing a big sell off in the dollar by close to 2 . 1. 75 . Thats an encouraging sign to see. Yields slipping a bit, but not significantly. Oil down 5 . The only negative. Overa overall, were seeing the s p close higher by 6. 25 . The dow as session highs 1363 points. Up 6. 5 week to date now, we are up 17. 7 on the dow and up more than 20 from the intraday lows on monday. Welcome. To the closing bell. Ill pick things up again. Tyler holding down the fort at cnbc hq. Mike also with us. Cnbcs senior markets commentator. A recap of where we just closed. 6. 1 higher on the s p 500 the dow up 6. 24. Nasdaq up 45. up u more than 20 now on the dow from the intraday lows on monday for the for the week as a whole, were up 17. 5 . All sectors higher on the s p. Utilities led the charge up 8. 2 coming up, the ceo of General Mills will join us to discuss whether theres a risk of supply Chain Shortages and how the company is protecting workers to make sure they can keep producing food and later, the ceo of hertz will discuss the car rentals move to provide free rentals to new york citys Health Care Workers. Joining us now, stephanie link, ceo Jason Trennert and chris harvey mike first to you though i mean as i just mepgsed from the monday lows, this has been a ferocious bounce back albeit no one we can confirm will continue yet. Thats right. From below 2200 of the lows of this week on monday to about 2600 and really virtually in a straight line. This market does this. It goes relentless in both directions i think once you get a trend turn and by the way, i also say when we were grinding high er i a tight uptrend before the highs, it also was this habit of doing that while i say were still in the bounce zone, youre still looking at a chart that says okay, fine, this makes sense were not even back to where we fell off a cliff a couple of weeks ago from around 2700 so thats why i think were getting up to a point where the market is rushing up to its next test, but so far, so good. Maybe weve lost sara again well get her back jason, ill come to you. Clearly as mike said, a really big bounce weve seen off the lows do you make this out to be the start of a more pronounce d prolonged rally or not. I dont i mean really, i have to say that while i agree with paul, i think the market will be b higher a year from now than it is today im also very much to the view that you know like it or not, were in the middle of a recession. I think weve done a great job of Monetary Policy to end fiscal policy, were getting there, to prevent a depression, which is good news. But theres a lot of damage thats been done especially in the most highly leveraged parts of the economy and thats just going to take some time to address and its going to take time to heal and so you know im hopeful, but i would be careful about trying to chase this too much. I think like a lot of other bear markets, it tends to be a process. Youve never iseen this magnitud of stimulus come at the markets so quickly and so that maybe accounting for the violence of the bounce were seeing and it could go further i think what mike said, 2800 seems like a decent place to go, but i think for those who are maybe not trading, that are more of investors, i wouldnt think youre going to miss these prices for a lifetime. Youre going to have time here to scale back in into more cyclical types of sectors as this unfolds chris, youve been assessing what we need to see for this to be a staeped rally where do we stand . Weve Blood Pressure been tell lg clients to buy below 2500 but weve also saying you need to be disciplined this has been a very volatile and violent market and we want them to be disciplined as they go about deploying capital as far as what we needed to see, were seeing many things we hoped to see we want to see pointed and very effective monetary and fiscal policy and were getting that. Something that we noticed and weve been talking to clients about, is ig market has a new issue wans in the credit mark. We may see a record month this year a record month for march that was unthinkable last, a week ago right . So that was very constructive. While we talk about weve been critical of the fed, while more recently, we think the fed has done an outstanding job. What they did on monday, they took the kitchen sink and threw it at the problem and found another one and threw that it had been very effective on a fiscal policy, 2 trillion is a big number. But again, what we need to confront is were still facing the coronavirus. We dont know the length and magnitude and were still trying to price that in once we start to see a peak in the growth rates then i think we can get more constructive but we are making some of the right steps. So were happy but we doernt dont want to chase. Weve put a lot of money to work and now its sit and wait and watch for how the coronavirus plays out. Stephanie, i know you said earlier you started buying again on monday and thought the feds unlimited qe was a bit of a game changer. What about four days on when weve had a 20 bounce from the intraday lows on monday. Is it harder to top off your portfolio now . I dont want to chase because youre going to have continued volatility the vix is still at 61 so were hardly out of the woods. Ive said this for a while now you have to get peak virus numbers for the volatility to settle down a bit but i am not fighting the fed, the Monetary Policy, probably not going to fight the fiscal policy. That 2 trillion probably gives you three months so if they have to do more, theyll do more i believe. In the meantime, the markets overall are down about 20 year to date. They have bounced but ive got wells fargo still down 42 chevron, 32 union fpacific, down 21 . These are blue chip companies. On those down days, im adding to those names and others. How much difference did it make to you that wells fargos ceo personally bought more stock in its company one of the main reasons i topped it off. The former ceo bought more stock. So look i think theres a lot they can do, that company can do, to fix a lot of the problems but it will take time. But you know their efficiency ratio. Its the highest in the industry that number can easily come down youre trading at. 75 price to book a good book in my view and in terms of my comfort. They may have stumbled along the way, but i think overall, in a year, two years, three years, i think this new ceo is going to fix this company and thats one of the reasons, with a 7 yield, take that any day. Zwl let. Lets get a recap on what happened today bob has a check in on all the biggest stock movers hey, bob and the intraday volatility is still staggering. I want to show you the s p 500 were essentially moved 2400, 2600 these are staggering intraday volatility and people say why isnt the vix going down because were having six, seven, 8 intraday moves with whats called the realized volatility. Its been titanic. The vix is not going to drop when you have 6, 7, 8 moves traders look iing at that saying were not going to do anything were not going to take off the protection were not going to stop buying protection at this point so thats why the vix is still at 60, folks. I was hearted to see the action in the banks today biggest story of the day they kept rising throughout the day. Fifth third up 17 even though weve gotten clobbered toward the last month weve seen nothing going on here, no jump in yields at all i think thats very, very important we saw banks up no jump in yields back to you. Now to Rick Santelli for a check on the bond Market Action today. Rick you know, bob nailed it theres not a lot of big upside to rates one would think with the backtoback sessions in equities that rates would be firming more than they are look at a 24 hour chart of tens. If you look at monday, tuesday, wednesday and tuesday and draw a line at 0i base80 boys is paint, youre touching it every session. Theres not much bang to yields. This is something to pay close attention to it gives us a hint that not all is cured remember, rates going down is kind of the association with regard to credit markets finally, whats the big story today here dollar index lets realize that on monday, we were flirting with 103, now were 99 and a quarter 3. 5 drop and if you look at just today, just today, we are down one and three quarters percent as you see on the one month chart of the dollar index. I havent volatility in the foreign change, but remember downside of the dollar is kind of a better overall emotional strategy for the globe with respect to the demand for dl alrea dollars. The fed has gone a long way to help satisfy that demand back to you. Thank you jason, fed chair powell speaking on the today show this morning saying we may wibe looking at a recession but that the fed is in and doing whatever it takes basically as weve seen through a number of these recent programs also said that you know theres plenty of ammunition left this talk about how much the fed has helped the current environment, the dollar as rick was saying . , the treasure ares and strong treasuries are correlated with Strong Equity prices now and just what has happened as a result of all this fed action. Its really incal clabl i was happy to say powell on television the morning that also they created this alphabet soup of facilities for commercial paper and neutral funds and now youre being able to buy munis and Investment Grade paper. They say the Balance Sheet is over 5 trillion now all great stuff. Its been telling that you havent seen powell visibly until it looked like they were making Real Progress on the fiscal side and i think because the fed can provide liquidity, but its really going to take fiscal and regulatory policy to allay some of the fears b of solvency and i think partenkirchen of the reason why you havent seen him until recently i think its a good sign but again theres, there are going to be certain things on the other side of this particularly as it relates to the cost of leverage ill liquid investments, the amount of liquidity might not matter because the cost of capital may be low, but you may not have access to it. So what the fed has done cant be underestimated. Jason just wanted to ask you about oil prices and a couple of the other industrial commodities. Clearly oil spllipped during th session. Does that worry you . It doesnt make me feel better we have a list of ten factors that were looking at to determine when expectations for Global Growth have bottom eed ad oil and copper are both on that list and the fact that theyre not, they havent really spiked or havent really come through makes me feel that Global Growth is still going to be under pressure so id like to see oil higher. Copper quite a bit higher. Financial conditions have eased and spreads have started to narr narrow, so those things are good, but in terms of just getting back to people actually starting to think about risk on, i think oil is an important indicator and right now, its not giving you much of a signal to get really long from here jason, stephanie, chris, thank you all very much for joining us thank you now on to lululemon earnings so it was beat on the top end bottom lines for the apparel makers eps, 2. 2. 28 for q4 revenue at 1. 40 billion. The expectation had been 1. 38 billion. Comps also nice. Total increased 20 . Comp store sales increased 9 . The ceo did refer to coronavirus in the note saying that 2019 was a strong year for lululemon but added that in an extraordinary environment which is currently company not providing guidance certain ly nt something yushl in this environment. Again, you can see shares are down almost 1 in afterhours trading, but this is after a beat on top and bottom lines for q4 back to you. Thanks so much for that still to come, the ceo of General Mills llwi discuss which products dont go anywhere. Life isnt a straight line. And sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. But when youre with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, theres nothing to stop you from moving forward. A partner who makes sure every step is clear, wenot the exception. Sh food being the global norm, at emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. People know aflac. Aflac . But not what they do. So were answering their questions. Aflac is auto insurance, right . No. Uh uh. Is it Homeowners Insurance . No. Uhuhuhuh is it duck insurance . Nope. Ahhh do they pay me money directly when i get sick or injured . Yeah. Aflac you got it. You know aflac boom get help with Expenses Health insurance doesnt cover. Get to know us at. Aflac dot com. Your favorite Breakfast Cereals, talk about what else youre seeing now. Thanks for having me. We are seeing increased demand from people eating at home and were able to fulfill that demand because the people on the front lines of our manufacturin as well as Health Care Workers and Law Enforcement are doing the jobs they need to do and so were very proud of the work were doing and were living our Company Mission of making food the world loves. Right now, its making food the world needs. That includes breakfast serial here in the u. S. And also here at home as well as in china and europe and a decrease in food demand away from home and those markets as well. Since you mentioned china, what are you seeing there now as the country comes back online and back to work does it mean theyre eating out more at restaurants at the expense of some of those grocery products well im really proud of what weve been able to do, General Mills has been able to do in china. Our sales at home have been increasing double digits over the last couple of months since the pandemic started there and we saw our hagan das shops business down about 90 with 90 of our Stores Closed in february theres another side of this and for us, that really is 90 of our shops are back open and traffic is still down. Its down 50 . But i think its a good sign that stores have reopened and that consumers are starting to come back and i think thats well for in the u. S. And for people in europe as well. It does its good to hear, but meantime, back to the u. S. , what are you seeing people buy . You mentioned hagan das and sara mentioned cereal is it items for stocking up or is it ice cream to get you through it. What we saw in the beginning was different than today four weeks ago, we saw people stocking up. What were seeing now is more steady increase d demand for items across the store so we see increases in our business, not only in our soup business, but also in things like cereal and yogurt and baking mixes, so what was once a stock up trip at a few locations has really turned into something more systemic demand and food at home across different formats in the Grocery Store as well as our own portfolio. Jeff, at what point the longer this crisis goes on or the more cities perhaps that get locked down across the u. S. , at what point do you worry about meeting demand about production and delivery that can actually keep up and do we have to worry about Food Shortages at any point in this country . We certainly havent seen that yet and i dont anticipate it i think its due to the great work the people have done not only at General Mills and our manufacturing plants, but also the way we partnered with our partners in Grocery Stores to keep shelves stocks. In some ways, you see film, you think this pandemic brings out the worst. I see the opposite its brought out the best in General Mills and the way we go to market. In how we partner with retailers. Weve been able to fulfill more than 90 of orders so far because we have more than 95 of our employees showing up and weve made that possible through some policies weve put in place, but also importantly to propolicies to make sure if theyre stick, they stay home and if their children are home, they need to be able to do that as well. The Food Supply Chain in the u. S. Has been remarkable and its true of General Mills but also of our competitors throughout the whole food chain so we are confident we can continue to supply the u. S. And the world with food. Jeff, how confident are you in food safety here in the u. S. That its not spreading the virus . Were highly confident that were not spreading the virus and that our food is safe and the fdas weighed in on this and you can check out their websites they are the experts weve taken a lot of precautions to make sure the food is safe and people making the food are safe we feel very good about the safety of our food supply. Wanted to ask you about pet food you made a huge acquisition to blue buffalo thats been a fast growing brand. What are people doing there . Also stocking up. Well, people love all their members of the family, including furry members of the family and blue buffalo was growing at 11 before this broke out. Were still see iing high deman for pet food people take care of their pets like pet food just like they do other members of their family. Im proud of the herd we call them the herd is doing great work b and we see good demand for pet food sara has frozen briefly again but well leave it there thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it thank you so much kb home earnings are out. Diana has the numbers. Yeah. Nice beat for kb home. They reported revenue of 1. 08 billion, 63 cents a share. Thats the highest revenue since 2007 up 33 Home Deliveries were up 28 . New orders, net new orders up 31 . Now of course this is all backward looking and they did cancel all their guidance for this year. The note from the ceo says they are well positioned. He did mention something which leonard menged last week again about land we continue to close homes and generate revenues. We are also taking steps to curtail Land Acquisition and development until circumstances become more stabilized you definitely dont want to be land heavy as a builder if youre looking at slower sales andsloer slower prospects goin into the last quarter. They are thinking they are going to get more demand toward the next year, so it was a great beat the august, First Quarter sale price was up 5 and the cancellation rate dropped from 20 to 14 so we were supposed to see very Strong Spring market for the builders we saw it with lennard but u again, that was all backward looking and were hearing a lot of slowdown in the market now back to you. Up 5 or so after hours move. Thank you. Still ahead, ceo of hertz will join us to discuss whether the auto rental company will continue to need to lay off workers because of the coronaVirus Outbreak you can watch us live on the cnbc app well be right back. Up, there is a chance that thats the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. I might be crazy but im not stupid. Having an annuity tells me that im protected. During turbulent times, consider protected Lifetime Income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan. This can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. Learn more at protectedincome. Org. vo quof those who workthe grit anfor themselves. Theyre the backbone of our economy. And in these challenging times, theyre adapting to support their communities. So be sure to support them in return. Intuit quickbooks. Has you covered withe fast, reliable internet. Finity with advanced security to help keep you secure online. And with the most tv shows, movies and streaming apps all in one place. With simple Digital Tools you can get the help you need or even trouble shoot your services on your own. Download the xfinity my account app or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. We are working to make things a little easier on everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. Welcome back lets look at how we finished the day on wall street it was a good day. Industrials up 6. 38 with 1350 points quite a gain there the s p 500 up 15 4. Better than 6 gain. Nasdaq better than 6 and russell 2,000 up 6 as well. Best threeday gain for the dow since october of 1931 in percentage terms best three day sprint for the s p since april of 33 1933 that is wasnt a great decade and there were lots of losses that followed as the country went into the Great Depression and markets actually bottomed i believe a couple of years after that dont remember, but were not out of the woods yet certainly not thank you very much for that i know one person who will have insight on that. Mike, hes got another chart on the market right now i wasnt quite around in the 30s, but we saw the biggest up day, too so thats the decade that seemed look at the current weekly American Association of individual Investor Sentiment survey one breakdown of bulls than bears. More bulls than bears now. This chart is the fourweek average. Its not yet down to the depth we saw in 2008, 2009 period. Probably because the duration of this downturn is really not that long just yet. Its only several weeks and perhaps that would have time to get down there, but i think it fits with this idea that people are shocked, negative, e scared, pessimistic, maybe not in that despondent way still to come, Neil Ferguson will join us and way in tonhe claims that the social distancing cure its having on the economy is worse than the disease. Back in a couple of minutes. When i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. It is already working in cities like tokyo. Can we go get some ice cream . Alright, we gotta stop here first. From smarter atms, to after hours video tellers comcast business is connecting thousands of banks to technology that turns everyday transactions into extraordinary experiences. Hi there. How are you . Do you have any lollipops in there . laughing no, sorry. Were helping all kinds of businesses go beyond customer expectations. How can we help you . Yourbut as you get older,thing. It naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. Thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. The secret is an ingredient originally discovered. In jellyfish. In clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Breaking news on americas credit rating. Steve. Affirming as triplea, but possibly the worst i have ever read in fact they say the near term, the situation is so that it may be placed in the future on credit watch, it sees deteriorating debt it does say that the u. S. Is supported by structural screen, by the idea of the dollar. But it sees the deficit initial indications from the stimulus vote just passed increasing to 13 of gdp and debt to gdp the all in debt rises to 115 from 100. So they are affirming the triplea you remember the last time that was downgraded i believe on credit watch was 2013. It was downgraded as part of the fiscal cliff it seems like one of the most reluctant and worse affirmations ive read. I dont know if you saw it today, but there was something of a widening in u. S. Sovereign debt this which you take out insurance against. It was not used, but it was a widening of those spreads, so the idea here is that we are coming out with a huge spending plan but its not without cost always comes back to the u. S. Go ahead, sorry weve had these fears about the u. S. Credit before and about u. S. Deficits and yet the u. S. Is still number one. Everybody wants their bonds. Everyone wants our dollar and as long as that system is in place, steve, i wonder if were really going to have any type of reckoning or real fear about the u. S. This is correct and its my recollection that u. S. Bonds rallied after the countydowngrak place. Where people come to when risk is off thats something that helps the United States. I just feel like fitch is putting out a warning sign you know what, keep going this way. Remember the downgrade in 2011 and 13 was about the political will not the financial ability or economic ability that creates this issue of when it rises to a certain level of what we do b about that debt i think its something we have to keep in mind as we embark on this tremendous spending to try to save the economy. Steve, well leave it there thank you very much. Also just mention that they are forecasting u. S. Gdp to shrink by 3 in 2020. They describe it as unprecedented. Minus 3 for the full year now the number of coronavirus cases worldwide topping half a million but earlier today on cnbc, paul jones said the u. S. Must be careful not to overhype the disease. Lets assume a worst Case Scenario lets assume a million cases which is two and a half times what i think were going to have lets assume a mortality rate and again, forgive me for speaking with so much morbidity, but lets assume a fatality rate of 4 of 40,000 americans, sadly and tragically will die. That still is the equivalent of what weve seen during the flu season so weve got to be careful not to make this into the pandemic gbecause we can bea this thing joining us now, niall ferguson, the hoover institution. A very good afternoon to you thanks for joining us. Do you think that assessment is too optimistic well, he i think just got off the phone from the president of the United States who clearly is rather eager for the stock market to go up. And indeed for business as usual to resume in about 17 days but i think its a little dangerous to present thatas th worst Case Scenario. We just dont know enough about this virus and the disease it causes yet to be as confident as he just sounded. Lets just imagine that we have the italian experience in this country, which is not inconceivable at this point. That would mean that within about two week, we would have 400,000 cases and 40,000 dead i you just scale from population lets imagine that the disease is as contagious as h1n1 and yet a great deal more dangerous. Lets apply the south korean fatality rate, imagine that 20 of the u. S. Population gets covid19 but a south korean rate of mortality strikes. Then youre looking at 400,000 dead so i think hes making a mistake in so confidently saying that 40,000 dead is the worst Case Scenario i can think of a number of significantly worse Case Scenarios than that. These things, pandemics, have very fat tails and you cant say with confidence where exactly this thing is going to go until we have much more certainty about its reproduction number, how many people do you infect if youre contagious and about the fatality rate. We still have no idea how many people have caught it with no symptoms at all. So were in a condition of great uncertainty and i think its rather irresponsible to rehash the old line that oh, its just the seasonal flu not the seasonal flu its happening on top of the flu and theres no vaccination for ko vcovid19 and there isnt gog to be for at least a year. What makes you think, how can we get a handle on whether the u. S. Is going to follow italy or not . If you put aside the number of cases and focus on the number of deaths which i guess is more comparable because it takes out of the equation how much testing youre doing, is there any explanation that people have as to why the situation in italy is so much worse than anywhere else if we look at the most disastrous examples, huibei, china, it soars when your medical services are overrun with ill people and you dont have the capabilities, the intensive care units to be overrun. That was the story in italy, too. Now were not as densely populated at the italians and i think our social networks with r different and thats important as ive tried to show in my recent show. I dont think well be as bad as italy, but new york state might be new york city almost certainly will be but the u. S. As a whole probably wont be just because were more thinly dispersed. Back up i thi but its important to remember were not going to be south korea. South korea got a handle on an outbreak and it did a whole series of things that we just arent doing we arent even doing yet in the United States the kind of strict lockdowns that have applied in almost every european continent and country, so i think is u. S. Is taking a risk at the moment and particularly if its going to go back to work around easter time because we still dont really i think have enough confidence in whats going to happen here under those circumstances. Theyre simply not doing what they did in east asia to contain it and not even doing what they did in europe to contain it. Its already inflicted a considerable cost of the economy. You know there is a worst Case Scenario, what the United States does just enough to crater the economy, but not enough to contain the pandemic thats what troubled me most about our current policy stance. Especially with the president talking about reopening by easter i want to get to your latest project, this idea of o networks and information and messaging how do you think social media is playing a role here in spreading news about the pandemic . Either making people too scared and too panicked or maybe the opposi opposite not enough and spreading fake news about whats happening. Well, it has been doing both. It seems to me that if you want to be into a state of complacency, social media has got it for r you and if you want to be in an panic and imagine youre in the movie contagion, youre probably find that, too its true that technology can dissim na disseminate all kinds of fake news, but remember in east asia, one thing theyve been able to do using social media and location data from phones is very quickly Contact Trace this is something were not doing in the United States its not enough for us to ramp up testing, which were doing. What you really need to do is what they did in south korea as well as in china but also in taiwan remember its not just authoritarian that can do this you use the social browse that people create with their smart phones through their social media usage so that you can trace the network of people that an infected person has likely been in contact with. Thats why the south koreans were able to put a lid on their outbreak in a way that europeans havent been able to and i dont think were going to be able to because were not deploying the technology in that way rather, were letting social media be an amplification mechanism for all kind of very inaccurate assessments of the kris i we face nile ferall ferguson, alwaysa pleasure and great jumper. Im in the mountains, wilf. Much appreciated. Hertz providing free rentals to w rkithetharneyo cy al ce workers. Well discuss the move with the ceo after the short break. Forced camaraderie. Shoult and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. Every time it takes care of something for us, we celebrate. How often does that. Got it. Servicenow the smarter way to workflow. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Lets get the latest on the coronavirus. Hi, sue. Hello, everybody. The infection rate in new jersey has shot up today. That state reported nearly 2500 cases since yesterday. Thats an increase of 56 in a single day Health Officials say at least 43 of the states 375 longterm care facilities have a case of the virus. One facility had to be evacuate after at least 24 people tested positive three residents there have died. Overseas, a famous english seaside resort is urging people not to visit because of the coronaVirus Outbreak last weekend, thousands of people flocked to brighton and hove with many flaunting social distancing were asking people to stay away from our city because of the coronavirus. Please, dont come this weekend. Your action could save lives as always, you can get more on cnbcs coronavirus coverage by going to cnbc. Com back to you. Thanks so much. Now hertz offering free rental vehicles to workers in new york city through the end of april. Joining us by phone in an exclusive interview is the ceo very good afternoon to you and its great to hear this new endeavor youre doing to give Health Care Workers in new york city free cars talk us through how easy that has been to administer and the take up youve seen. Well, what happened is basically we have a lot of employees who want to help and we also happen to have a lot of cars not on rent because of the Immediate Impact on travel and Mobility Matters you know in these times of crisis are critical and we have a lot of cars available so werestarting with Health Care Workers who truly are at the front line of this crisis. Doing good work and were going right to new york city where its the epicenter of the coronavirus cases. And you know, as most, many people know, theres low car ownership in new york. And theres increasing concern with people using Public Transportation so were providing free rentals to new York City Health care workers through april. And were also provideing cargo vans to hospitals to help them with supplies and just today, we already have a cargo vans are mt. Sinai hospital and theyre transporting ventilators and theyre telling us that we are literally helping them to save lives. This isjust a start. Well continue to see ways we can continue to help during this crisis we are an essential service out there. We still have thousands of employees providing critical transportation where and when they need it to fema workers, government workers, Health Care Workers across the country when students had to get home, we changed our policy. We let 18yearolds rent cards with debit cards and got them home so they could shelter in place. Kathy, its great work and we commend you for doing it obviously an Important Service im wontderring if wondering if you can tell us about the business though and what youre seeing with travel in this country essentially grinding to a halt is there any demand for rental cars well, as i mention ed, there are Still Critical needs of transportation around the country and we still do have thousands of people you know, providing service and making sure people you know get the cars or the vans or trucks they need however, like the rest of the Global Travel sector, its had a huge impact on hertz it happened quick and we had a very definitive reversal in customer demand. Its been significant. The hard part for us is we came into the year really strong and then in march, cities around the world started shutting down, Airline Travel decreased dramatically pretty much overnight. And weve had tons of cancellations and a decline in forward bookings you know, one of the things, go ahead. I was going to say a lot of talk of course about how the government bill can help you and whether you can get government assistance is that something youre considering that could be necessary and alternatively, theres been your industry can consolidate a little bit is that something youre considering . Well, what first and foremost weve been aggressively getting out of our fleet, managing cost and reducing our Capital Expenditures and things that are directly in my control, and at the same time, yes, we have engaged in the u. S. And european governments and we are seeking Financial Support to help the industry get through this critical period. I havent gotten a response back so i dont have an update on that, though you know, i think, as, you know, we have a great brand and we provide Great Service out there and in fact, we were working with our competitors to seek the help we need to get through this crisis. Kathy, thank you so much for joining us we appreciate it have a good afternoon after the break, facebook making a big change to its board. Those details next life isnt a straight line. And sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. But when youre with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, theres nothing to stop you from moving forward. A partner who makes sure every step is clear, get it. Get it. Get it get it crowd chanting get it get it get it crowd groaning crowd cheering narrator give your town a reason to celebrate because every goodwill item you bring home, brings job training and more to your community. Goodwill. Bring good home. We see hat emerson,kthroughs when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. At t has connected us every day for over 100 years. And were here for you especially now, doing Everything Possible to keep you connected. Through the resilience of our network and people. We can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching, and most of all, keep together. Its the job weve always done. It is the job we will always do. Welcome back. Some breaking news on facebook rahel solomon has that for us. It is appointing robert m. Kimmet as lead independent director that is effective immediately. Jeffrey ziets informing the company hes stepping down and not standing for reelection. Mark zuckerberg saying of kimities appointment is important for us and weve been looking for a leader that can bring significant oversight and shares of facebook are down fractionally in after hours. Wilf, ill send it back to you thank you so much. In the meantime, the Cheesecake Factory telling landlords it wont be able to pay aprils rent jane wells has that in california. The Company Headquarters is not far from here and while share his a nice pop, year to date theyre down half and theyve told the landlords no rent coming in april and the company has started drawing down on a 90 million credit line chairman and ceo David Overton said, quote, due to these extraordinary, vents im asking for your patience and frankly, your help. Most of the 300 stores are in malls owned by Simon Property in westfield and Simon Properties have had a rougher year. The Cheesecake Factory laying off employees as it was forced to switch to a takeout and delivery mode. Cnbc obtained a copy of an email sent by overton saying theyre being furloughed without pay. They can apply for unemployment and the company will continue to pay their Health Care Premiums through may. Overton write, quote, the staff furloughs we have enacted are the most difficult decision ive had to make, but my overarching goal is to ensure that we make it through this crisis and return to full Staffing Levels as soon as we can. The Current Situation has deteriorated far more rapidly than 9 11 and the Great Recession. The company is offering employees one free meal a day. Back to you. Jane, thank you very much some tough times for sure. Coming up next, well be looking ahead to tomorrow. Stocks, of course, today finished sharply hheigr. Whats in store tomorrow well discuss. Its a challenging market. Edward jones is well aware of that. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. You should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. We see eat emerson,mulating when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Welcome back. The dow finished higher. The s p and nasdaqs well today, for the third day in a row as we look to tomorrow, mike santoli, important to keep in mind how historic this week and month has really been. The dow having its best week since 1931, but its worst month since 2008 which gets back to your point that sometimes the sharpest upswings and snapbacks happen during a bear market and the fact is that the big swings on beoth sides still indicate w are far from normal in this market. Absolutely, sarah it tells you how tightly compressed this mark has becomed and we relieved some of that pressure and sprang higher at this rate. I will say toward the end of the session we saw evidence of that rotation, Asset Allocation rotation into stocks, out of bonds and thats a quarter of the activity and we will look to tomorrow to see if that basically got it done or maybe this is going to be another day of a shortterm tailwind from that kind of a force best threeday rally but wasnt monday a really bad day . I seem to remember it wraunt th wasnt that long ago, was it its been a roller coaster ride which no doubt will continue i quickly want to mention tomorrow at 10 15 a. M. Ill be interviewing the Vice President and the head of the Coronavirus Task force you dont want to miss that and you also dont want to miss fast money which starts now with Brian Sullivan. Welcome to fast money and cnbcs continued coverage of the coronaVirus Outbreak and the markets in turmoil i am Brian Sullivan and you can see a new local, social distancing just as important at work and do not worry, we still have a lineup all hour long with bigname guests youve got to he