Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713

Yielding around where it had been. 8 is roughly the mark weve been sitting at. It looks like the 10year is yielding as well i know people are short and anxious. These two days backtoback are we putting in a bottom these numbers in new york look promising like the numbers may not be going up as rapidly as imagined well see. We have a lot of big guests to talk about that. We want to get everybody up to date about what happened last night. The Senate Passing that stimulus bill it now goes to the senate. Steve liesman will cover the potential impact on the economy. First, well go to washington, d. C. Where eamon javers is this morning. I cant think of another major vote that was this unanimous, 960. It would have been even more if it hadnt been for the fact that so many members of congress are back home or suffering themselves from this virus we could of seen a 1000 vote yesterday. Buts that where it handed. What is in the bill . Just about something for everybody in the economy lets whip through the details for almost everybody, there are these direct payments of 1,200. 500 per child, that phases out at 75,000 extending benefits to 39 weeks from 26 weeks. Extends benefits to gig workers. For Small Business, 350 billion for Small Business loans that could be forgiven entirely if the Small Business doesnt lay anybody off after the eightweek period is over that is an important one for big business, a lot of different pieces but 500 billion in loan or direct aid. The Federal Reserve will massively expand lending for the states 150 billion for direct aid for hospitals. There is a bump in cases here. 2 trillion is the initial score but i believe that cost could go up over time as everything is taken advantage of by americans across the country eamon, we need to get this i mean the clock is ticking. In terms of timing for the house to pass this, how quickly does this happen . You are hearing from folks like aoc and others that says they want to get everybody there in person, which would be impossible in the time line. There are folks that want to push back on the bailout it does appear to me to allow, highly paid executives to keep that pay throughout. What do you think is going to happen here . Look, the plan right now, this is not a thursday thing, it is a friday thing. What the house is going to try to do is have a voice vote on the floor with nobody objecting and then without bringing the majority back. Bringing them back in this era of the virus and limited flights, it could be tricky. You have a number from the house that are dealing with covid. If they decide they want to make a ruk us here. The house can get it to a unanimous place like the senate did. We dont know that yet yesterday, we saw a minirebellion from four republican senators that were concerned that the stimulus paid workers more than they were making before and disincentivizing returning to work those senators voted for it. Well see if the left does the same thing on the house side as well you saw mnuchin talking yesterday saying even if things were to pass right away, you are talking about three weeks before this money makes its way to the American People and businesses that need it the sense of urgency we are talking about here, is that understood i think it is thats part of why you saw that unanimous vote one republican senator who had some kwaums about this but said, look, im going to vote for it this is important. Ive got some problems with it but we need to get this thing done thats where a lot of them landed i cant tell you just on twitter, small people reaching out to me with questions of how do i get this 7a loan . The banks, the Federal Reserve, all of it will strain to get this money out the door but it will have to be done i agree with you, eamon you are getting these emails too. We all are the number of people getting laid off people saying, look, i dont know whats going to be in this bill or if ill ever get this money. We are laying off people now, then you will ask them if you lay them off now, will you retire all of them they say that is impossible to say. Call your banker if you are running a Small Business today to get a sense of how much time you have and get that grace period built in right now. That is the other piece of it, some of the bankers that will likely be responsible for some of the loans are also not sure how quickly this is going to go and not necessarily telling Small Businesses, you know, hank on, well try to work this out and figure it out with you too the big unknown is landlords as well. Whether theyll give rent holiday or any grace period. Steve, youve been speaking about the need to call your banker how do you see it . There are provisions in there to expand the Small Business lending to allow more branches to provide it and ease restrictions i dont know which version i read i read a dozen of them it seemed to ease the conditions of the Small Business loans. So, it is going to take time but less time than it otherwise would have if the fed gets the program up and running, there could be two sources of money but it is not right away the idea for the Small Businesses that theyll expand to the socalled 7a program. You dont have to go to the federal government you as a Small Business owner, go directly to your usual banker theyll issue these 7a loans and there is a provision fof forbearance on existing sba loan there is another bit of relief there for Small Businesses we need the bankers to step up here. This is a difficult time i do want to talk about this terrible jobless claim number that is coming and why it is a little bit of good news. Bare with me, we are about to have an historic surge of the jobless number that will come out at 8 30 double the amount of people filed for the fiers time for jobless claims the previous record was 695,000 in 1982. The number could be a lot bigger weve seen numbers up to 3 million here lets talk inside the number, what the story is. There is a lot of drama behind the scenes a number of people lost their jobs second is the ability for states to process huge claims like this third is these efforts by some employers trying to do the right thing and retain their workers this is a big surge. Lets show you a story of why it is good the economy is starting from at least a good place theyve surged to 6 or 7 million. Beginning from a lowstandpoint. So that is a good sign here for where we have to go. It may go up all the way but it is better to start at a lower number hey, steve. Thats a stretch go ahead. Becky . Thats a stretch for a Silver Lining the good news is we are starting from a low base. The governor in california said theyve seen a million from california last week i know. But if we were starting from 400,000, it is a better place to start where we were at 200,000 i agree. It is a stretch. Here is another stretch. Let me give you one more stretch for a Silver Lining, which is this it is always bad when somebody looses their job the jobless claims program is designed to be the first line of defense to any kind of a shock to the system here what you see is people that will get aid and theyll get it faster than eamons folks in washington who are saying three weeks. It is a good thing and on one hand people will be getting assistance i know those are stretches but i would prefer to see people getting the aid they need. Has anybody talked to a small banker to see if they understand this at this point are they saying, the fed has our back, lets go talking to bankers who are saying well have this figured out by next week well have an Application Form as soon as next week it will be an enormous surge. There will be a flood of people applying for this. There has to be some guidance as well. Next week is optimistic. What are the numbers . Something like 5. 5 million Small Businesses not all of them will apply then you have this other pot of money, this 450 billion that goes over to the fed and creates the possibility of Something Like 4 trillion of traditional lending aimed more at the mediumsized businesses. The fed has to get that standing up over the next couple of weeks what we heard yesterday is that theyll have to use the commercial banks for that as well. The Small Businesses started laying off last week if we are talking about two or three weeks, that is a long time before they see aid. If you are not getting any sales or doing any business if it is not a forgiven loan, you wont be in position to bring those back right now, this is a liquidity issue. It depends on how long it goes on that is so critical. Steve liesman, thank you dont miss treasury secretary steven min Steven Mnuchin in the 9 00 hour. A little later, Paul Tudor Jones will talk about how he is investing. He warned us about the coronavirus back in january in davos. Watch out at 8 30, well get jobless claims numbers, expected to shatter the previous record as we head to the break, here are some images of the Pandemic Impact across america. Tomorrow. Its a day filled with promise and new beginnings, challenges and opportunities. At Ameriprise Financial we cant predict what tomorrow will bring. But our comprehensive approach to Financial Planning can help make sure youre prepared for whats expected and even whats not. And that kind of Financial Confidence can help you sleep better at night. With the right Financial Advisor life can be brilliant. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Welcome back apple trying to bounce lack this morning. The company is considering delaying the annual iphone launch for months because of issues related to the coronavirus. The newest phone expected to be 5g capable raising pressure on apple after more devices are expected to be a big hit with consumers apple headquarters currently under shelterinplace orders right now. The supply chain may very well be the other mcdonalds pulling the allday break fast menu to simply things. Saying, quote, well regularly reevaluate and look to move back to our regular menu as soon as possible. Shares of mcdonalds will show you where things stand right now at 161. 39 new data outthat our partners put together every year revealing a record 2019 for hedge funds, that should say before the virus broke out the Top Fund Managers made 20 billion. Topping the list was london based chris hohn tied with jim simons and ken griffin at 1. 5 billion. My only note when i say this every year is this isnt just how much they are paid a lot is also how much money they have in the fund. A combination of the fee but what their total stake in the fund was and went up by. That is where that number comes from because so many of these guys have huge, huge money in their own funds. Not to say these are outsized to begin with will be interesting to see this list because of everything that happened over the last six weeks or so, right to think. He called it right bill ackman will be on that list did you see what ackman did though ackman was super short when he came on and talked about how everything is going to hell in a hand basket and then covered it. Then covered it but he had been right. I dont know where his numbers were he did call this one right he had been hedged into this whole thing. Hes now saying hes buying stocks it will be very interesting in last week was a bottom this morning, things are looking into the red as people are worried about jobless claims let me tell you about a warning last night from the mayo clinic they are concerned that some of these leading contenders of offlabeled drugs could actually cause sudden cardiac arrest in some patients. Doctor Michael Ackermann is a doctor from the mayo clinic who issued this guidance hes with us to talk about this concerning news. Doctor, thank you for being with us good morning. Great to be with you lets talk, first of all. You are a cardiologist, you are not making any judgement of whether these drugs are effective in treating coronavirus. You are just saying there are concerns people should know before hand in using those off labels yes, im just a genetic cardiologist ill leave it to dr. Fauci and others to z learn if these drugs work do these increase the patients chance for the heart to spin electrically out of control to a dangerous rhythm if that doesnt revert back to normal, that patient will go on to experience druginduced sudden cardiac arrest and worse, sudden cardiac death what are the drugs . They are hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. I hope there is edthecasy. These are powerful drugs it is one thing when the side effect is a runny nose its another thing when the side effect is tragic cardiac risk. We have to do everything to make sure that there is a healthy dose of respect, not fear but respect, for navigating the qt issue and potential for sudden death. Those drugs are being tested here in new york to try to help some of the sickest corona patients what would you advise these doctors at this point, they are doing their best right now, how do you check that these patients dont have underlying issues one of the ways is to know your patients qtc know that number just like a diabetic would know their numbers. The ecg can tell us the patients qtc value. Is it too hot, too cold . If its too hot too long, we know the patient is vulnerable if they cant even obtain a qtc, we need to do the mitigating factors and say, can i remove preempt tiffly any and yall qtc factors. Is their magnesium level normal . I better get it normal are they on any drugs potentially setting them up. There are over 100 drugs that could increase the chance for sudden druginduced death. There is a powerful website, www. Credible meds. Org that could help with that we should try to know what are patients qtc is 90 could be qt cleared. They have plenty of safety margin, 90 . It is really that 1 that has a red alert value that they are approaching the edge of the cliff. We better make sure we have all appropriate qt Counter Measures in place to make that side effect as unlikely as we possibly can the problem is that the ecg is a machine a patient has to walk in with exposing him or herself to coronavirus using up personal Protection Equipment the fda just gave emergency approval last friday for a smartphone enabled device to obtain a mobil ecg that mobil ecg from a live core, could already be in the patients room and be real time to show the patients vital signs. Thats fantastic. Thank you for bringing us the concerns it is great to hear just about the innovation and how it could be done on an iphone as well if you have additional updates, will you let us know about them . I would be delighted to thank you for having me this morning. Again, dr. Michael 5 0ackerm is from the mayor clinic talking about how some of the drugs that are top contenders could have some side effects but that there are ways to treat that andrew, over to you. Well get a read of the impact of Small Businesses from the ceo of paychecks that is next at 8 30, an important number to watch. Well get jobless claims that number expected to shatter previous records as we head to break, a look at yesterdays s p 500 winners and losers back in a moment life isnt a straight line. And sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. But when youre with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, theres nothing to stop you from moving forward. Im part of a community of problem solvers. We make ideas grow. From an everyday solution. To one that can take on a bigger challenge. We are solving problems that improve lives. Good morning, u. S. Equity futures are indicated lower. Down somewhere around 210, 200 points an update now that the u. S. Has over 69,000 cases of coronavirus, the death toll has surpassed 1,000. Global deaths has surpassed 21,000 worldwide becky, i know what you are dealing with joe and i spent much of the morning face timing tryitiming m through this you have what we are calling a pad caster right ive been dealing with my router turning it on and off to get a higher bandwidth Everything Else had to be turned off in the house the shot kept freezing like yours did, becky there is a better way im so ready now to impart wisdom and analysis. I too am worried about that number, andrew ive been watching that is a very important number. The 8 30 jobless claims but im here ready and raring to go ive got tips for you later youve got to get off wifi. Thats the biggest problem now that i have a hard lined connection, that is better you have a camera, sorkin we are not running off that we had spectrum bring in here and bring in two extra highspeed lines so that this thing could hopefully never go down well see what happens you went down yesterday our sound went down but that wasnt a function of the cable that wasnt a cable issue. We have a lot to talk about. Lets go. Lets talk about the Senate Passing a 2 trillion stimulus bill to help workers including 350 billion in aid to Small Businesses a look at how to get this money to businesses. That is the issue on the table going to the ceo of paychecks. Lets talk about the number coming and what that could look like and what the world should even think about that number it is going to be a shock it is the first time weve maybe seen a number like that ever the stimulus package and getting it approved but now we have to get it into the hands of Small Businesses you are hearing them them, i am. We have to simplify, communicate it and get the cash in their hands. These Small Businesses cant hold on. Looking at some of the things in this bill like sick pay, extending paid family medical leave, you got to be employed to get that money so we have to get this money quickly into the hands of businesses in terms of mechanisms, marty. Thats the question. Getting it into their hands and who will make these loans. This may look like a liquidity crisis today but may become a solvant crisis it is unclear how long this is going to go on for one thing is, Payroll Processors we sent letters to congress and to the president and said, Payroll Processors, we paid everyone, i havent missed a payroll yet. Weve got 16,000 workers working from home and have the best m metrics ever ive seen a lot of the red tape getting cut. It is all about the cash for Small Businesses they are making decisions this week two weeks ago, they were worried about how to hire people and find people. Help the viewer out there who owns a Small Business, who owns a restaurant, who has zero revenue coming in. Has a staff. They want to keep the staff on board. They are told, i may get the revenue but if this goes on for a month or two, the math doesnt add up tofor me i hear that story every hour first, before i contact your bank to see, can i get some sort of shortterm loan paychex has been in this business for many years. We are waiting for the final regulations and talking to the treasury and Congress Every day to get the rules settled out go to your bank and see if you can get a shortterm loan. See if you can furlough employees, split jobs, keep things going for the short term. This is at least going to go on for eight weeks, meaning the backup of the payroll. And im not sure it will go on any longer if they need it short term, count on the government to help you if it goes longer. The question is, if your biggest expense is employees and you want to continue to pay them and you look at your bank account dwindling. You may be saying, im not sure this is going to go on for three or four weeks. Should i be paying on the risk or should i lay these people off now. You can also make a distinction of laying people off and the hope of hiring them back later the distinction between that and a furlough every business has to make that decision but the furlough is, hey, look, im not going to pay you but im going to keep you on the payroll versus laying you off and im not going to be able to pay you or give you sick pay or paid family leave most businesses will try to get some cash to do it and trust in the government ive never seen the government so supportive of Small Business in our history if you can hang on with some cash and count on those things coming but the government has to find the fastest way to get this money to them. One of the ways is coming to us as a Payroll Processor we think the most up to date accounts for employees we probably paid them last week or two weeks ago, we need to know where the dollars are, so we can get money into employees hands. Folks in washington watching, call marty thank you for coming up. Wish you a lot of luck hopefully helping to get that money to people who need it becky, over to you lets look at the futures quickly. We are well off the lows we saw earlier when we started about 40 minutes ago, you were looking at the dow down about 350 now the dow is down about 120. The dow is swinging all over the place. S p down by about 15 and the nasdaq down about 34 when we come back, well talk about some portfolio moves you might want to consider right now. Later this morning, well speak with Paul Tudor Jones. He warned us back in january that the coronavirus would be a big deal he told us that on the set in davos. Boy, is he right well talk about where he sees things going from here you can watch us on the app any time live. Squawk box will be right back. Creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Thats what happens in golf nothiand in life. Ily. Im very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. You cant do everything yourself. You need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, thats Morgan Stanley. Theyre industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. Im really excited to be part of the Morgan Stanley team. Im justin rose. We are Morgan Stanley. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. But when allergies attack,f any conthe excitement fades. Ion. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. People know aflac. Aflac . But not what they do. So were answering their questions. Aflac is auto insurance, right . No. Uh uh. Is it Homeowners Insurance . No. Uhuhuhuh is it duck insurance . Nope. Ahhh do they pay me money directly when i get sick or injured . Yeah. Aflac you got it. You know aflac boom get help with Expenses Health insurance doesnt cover. Get to know us at. Aflac dot com. It is time to get busy now, our next guest says this environment is like a candy store in small and midcapped value land i dont know, not feeling that much like that alex roepers joining us now. What do you mean by that, alex caller good morning. Thank you for having me on clearly the market has discounted a terrible scenario we are in a terrible scenario. Ive been at this over 32 years with a midcap Investment Strategy that has done very well clearly, going into ado downtur like this with undervalued companies feels better than the bigger names we have seen the impact globally midcap, 1 trillion market cap it is not our first rodeo. Well have to live through a lot of choppy and bad news in the coming month but the time to scale in and buy, if you have the opportunity, is certainly now. You would think, considering where a lot of these stocks are based on where they were six weeks ago. You avoid tech tech and biotech biotech seems like it is on everybodys list right now why those areas . Caller we decided it is not really analyzable. I construct highposition companies with reliable cash flow with low multiples, that sector has to be excluded. We ask our investors to know that and go to other managers or pick their own stocks in that sector do you have some individual names can you give us youve been picking at . You going full in, like 20 or 30 of your eventual position and waiting to see what happens . Caller we are pretty much fully invested at all times. Just like in 2008, well make some lateral moves in some cases, get out of a certain position because so many other great positions appear so we make lateral moves names that we like at the moment is a Company Called dxe technology, which might surprise you given that it is technology. It is an it Services Company much like what ibm does. Consulting services for hardware, software, peopleware they are imbedded, they onboard them on the cloud. The computer scientists went into some trouble in integration. They put in price cutting. Coming in to set out a great plan to get this company back on track. They announced a huge step forward with investing of one unit for 5 trillion that reduces the debt by a large amount drops 17 or so to 8. Now back to 16 it came from like 45 or 50 it is not going to go back there. We can see this stock going to 30, if you are 30, you are probably looking at a pf 10 in a year or so from now. So opportunity youve had a long relationship with tesla, not necessarily one where youre bullish on the stock you have in the past thought it was over valued. Where are you now on tesla tesla in the past had a fantastic short thesis on it distress, the inability to manufacture the bottlenecks. It made it a great short to trade which weve done very actively for about five years. In september last year at the frankfurt auto show we decided that we should step aside for quite a while because they had clearly figured out how to set up a factory in shanghai, how to set up in california and the inept competition wasnt coming on on top of that, we stepped aside thankfully for a while we are short again now this thesis is different the thesis is simply theres a terrible situation going on in the Automotive Industry in general, even though theyre the leader clearly in electric cars. The valuation is still outlandish this is execution on the growth in shanghai and eventually in europe i think its a dangerous stock to own clearly long term. The cult has thats following the stock clearly has their reasons to like it, but i think the down side is pretty large at this moment given the demand issues and the potential production falloff. Alex roepers, we appreciate it well be watching those individual issues. Thank you very much thanks for having me. Andrew, i think im kind of following whats going on. I finally got this thing working so i can see the rundown and i see a. S. Is on this next one im going to toss it to you. Yeah. When we come back, a lot more on squawk box this morning hes got the computer working. More investment ideas at the top of the hour. Well talk to mike wilson from Morgan Stanley, and then later you dont want to miss this interview. Paul tudor jones is going to join us to talk about the markets in this volatility he told us on january 21st to be nervous and be careful he got it right. Well be back right after this. Dont forget to subscribe to our podcast. Youll get interviews, original content, and behindthescenes access look for us on Apple Podcast or on your favoriteodst pca app and subscribe to squawk pod today. In nearly 100 years serving the military community, weve seen you go through tough times and every time, youve shown us, youre much tougher your heart, courage and commitment has always inspired us and now its no different so, were here with financial strength, stability and experience you can depend on and the online tools you need because you have always set the highest standard and reaching that standard is what were made for and reaching that standard is what were made for in the Transportation Industry without knowing firsthandness the unique challenges in that sector . Coming out here, seeing the infrastructure firsthand, we can make better informed investment decisions. Thats why i go beyond the numbers. Welcome back to squawk box. The s p has now cut fords debt rating to junk status. Theyre saying it was already borderline for adown grade, before the coronavirus outbreak. S ps outlook on ford is now negative, meaning theres a chance well, we dont know how big a chance a chance it could cut the rating further due to longer than expected plant shutdowns or potential recession. That could impact the cash flow and liquidity. Ford shares are down about 3. 25 there, maybe a little bit more down to 5. 21. Joe, over to casa kernen. Coming up, mike wilson should be interesting from Morgan Stanley is going to join us talking about the market turmoil. As we head to break, heres some images of the pandemics impact from yesterday from all around the globe. Were coming right back. The barkins are empty nesters now. Should they downsize . Probably. Will they . Not as long as thanksgiving is a holiday. Planning for the future is about more than just money. Let equitable be your guide. Should they downsize . Nesters now. Probably. Will they . Not as long as thanksgiving is a holiday. Planning for the future is about more than just money. Let equitable be your guide. Breaking news. The Senate Passing its Coronavirus Relief stimulus package overnight. That bill now moves to the house. Futures indicated lower in anticipation of whats expected to be a big spike in jobless claims today and the number of coronavirus cases in the United States approaching 70,000 the number of deaths now passing 1,000. It is thursday, march 26th, 2020, and our breaking News Coverage of markets in turmoil continues right now. Good morning and welcome back to the squawk box. Im joe kernen along with becky quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin im glad to be here. You guys owe me about a half hour actually, kind of nice. All built up. You have so much to say. I wish you guys could see gunther, right here. I cant point this thing im afraid to even touch it, believe me u. S. Equity futures at this hour, were down about 180 i can give you an estimate i can look up at my tv but i know its 10 seconds late. Down about 180 on the dow. And then if we look at the tenyear, i believe thats at about, what is it about. 8. 81, Something Like that i was told we want to check in now with mike santoli and this is oh, andrew maybe okay no mike, i am told, so lets go back to you, ars we are going to go to a different mike now well try to get mike santoli on the line in a minute want to get to our big desk for the morning. One of i should say our guests of the morning, mike wilson. Chief u. S. Equity strategist of morgan stably. Good morning, mike thank you for joining us youve been talking about this being a recession and maybe being a worse recession than had been anticipated were going to get these unemployment claim numbers a little bit later today how are you seeing things right now . Yes thanks, andrew hope you all are well. Look, i dont think thats a novel thought at this point. Its a consensus were in a recession. Its going to be steeper than weve seen ever before the question is is it going to be short or is it going to be elongated. Were leaning more to the short and sharp because of the policy response that were getting is so dramatic. You know, i think its also preconsensus now given the bills been passed, given what weve seen the fed do. I think the more important sort of question for investors is to think about, well, how has the market been trading this for a while . I think theres still some debate around the market has been expecting a recession, you know, at some point, right weve been trading very defensively leading up to this virus shock, which is what tipped us over into the recession. The call is weve been in a bear market for the average stock, not all stocks its a giant colsonly days weve been scaling back in the stocks in the last two, three, four weeks were not going to catch the bottom exactly we think this is the best risk reward weve seen from investors in two years. Mike, a lot of people, of course, are asking the question have we hit the bottom where is the bottom . Weve had these two up days now. Folks are looking at the curves, the numbers. Perhaps the numbers in new york may be better. I think theres a real question about that right now how do you see it . Do you think a bottom is in . I think thats not the right way that is the right way to think about it, but not in calling into the day no one is good enough to call this to the day and to the dollar thats not really the point. If you have real assets to pull the to work, which most of our clients do, you need to think about is this a good price if im investing for the next 6 or 12 months and we do. We like these a lot. Even in some of the lower quality equity markets. Mike, makethe case for the though make the case for the v. You see what happening over the next two or three months so were going to start today. Get a shockingly high claims number that has been pretty well telegraphed at this point. Unemployment rate is going to shoot up in a way weve never seen before. Let me explain how the unemployment cycle works typically when a recession begins, it starts with claims popping up, you get layoffs slowly it takes two years for the Unemployment Rate. Thats not awe guarantee, right . Thats not necessarily something we can predict with accuracy, but the magnitude of the moves suggests the possibility that would argue that on the other side unemployment isnt going to shoot back to the low the market bottoms when people feel like all of the bad news is priced markets bottom on bad news thats the case where the v is, so sharp and so truncated. Youll have the unbelievable policy response that the market is going to look straight through the valley that it went down 35 . Joe thanks, andrew. Mike, thats all very interesting in a lot of respects because no one predicted this. In a certain way, maybe its a way to look at it not with a Silver Lining but one of the positive things is that youre describing, that is a long in the tooth bull and a long in the tooth expansion that one way or another some of the excesses were going to get wrung out of it this provided it in a hideous way obviously, but for someone purely that does what you do for a living, it set up an entry point long term that was better than what youve had in the past couple of years. Is that fair to say for you . Thats exactly our narrative. Joe, weve been talking about end of cycle for a while the conditions for recession were in place. The credit markets are having a tough time not because of the virus but they were extended weve had excess in the Corporate Credit markets and in the shadow Banking System. You needed a trigger i would argue strongly it was not just the virus that was the trigger but the oil price that collapsed. Here we are. You know, as investors, you have to always be thinking about, a, whats the market already pri d priced, we dont know if its going to be a v or u, we dont think its going to be an l. Just like we sawed last year, western more at the end. 3,000 is a bull i shaish cas mike, we had somebody yesterday describe this as a potential w recovery, just up and down and up and down do you think that could be you said its not going to be an l but if its a w, does that concern you at all do you tell people to time it or dont worry on the daytoday moves . Depends on the client, right . We have all different types of clients here we have shortterm clients, asset owners thinking about the long term. If its a w, fine. Thats a typical process as long as im doing my buying towards the low end of what i think the right range is, weve articulated that as our 2400, 2500 and we overshot that, fine, give us a better entry rate. Thats the way to manage the longer term money. I dont know how this is going to place out im going to start doing that and thats what weve been do g doing. Joe, jump back in i would i think were trying to get mike santoli. Im fascinated by mikes analysis here because, mike, in your view i guess we over shot a little bit based on fundamentals when we were up on the s p well above 3,000 and now, you know, youre talking about thats the bullish case getting back there. Youre probably pretty comfortable with the market valued at 3,000 if it were to, in your bullish scenario, get back there, and valuations would be more reasonable when we overshot it three, four months ago. Im just kind of amazed to see you so sanguine in the midst of what were all dealing with. Historically thats the way markets perform. I dont know, i guess im gratified in thinking you may be on to something hear well, i mean, think about it this way, right . Theyre generally pretty efficient. We are going through a terrible situation right now where people are scared about not just the market but their health. That sets up a persuasion to over shoot but think about the Fourth Quarter of last year we were discussing this with you all on the show and others were, too. Everybody knew we were kind of getting a little bit euphoric. The fed was active there was a lot of leverage coming into the system we tracked a lot of these sort of leverage players, we tracked the strategies that had to participate when markets go up and down we wrote about that in the fall. Theyre derenching and thats whats over driving this so, yeah, i think this is how the market works it ebbs and flows around these pain points. Pain can be on the up side as much as it is the down side. I think weve experienced two really good examples with that with the Fourth Quarter last year and now what were experiencing with this recess n recession. Mike wilson, thank you. I think weve got another mike whos up and ready mike santoli, and you are probably in rapid attention listening to mike, too, as a market quasi historian, mike, for being so old and being around from barons did that make sense what you heard from mike wilson, mike santoli. Reporter its true being at barons afforded me the experience of the century long history of barons i think is what you mean, not that im so old having been there. I did mean that thats exactly reporter yeah. No, i mean, i think im more or less right with him, especially on this idea that you had these exacerbating factors just mechanically that definitely contributed to the speed and kind of vertical nature of the decline. You know, we can look at it on a more the stocks made a low in the last week or so no matter what happens to the indexes from here i still think its fragile i dont mean a trading algorithm, im thinking about the economic seizure were in. The new york state infections or something, but i dont think right now investors collectively have a sense of, okay, heres how i can track and monitor where this goes, but i think thats the give and take today we get stress tested by this unemployment claims number which is going to be monstrous as we all know and then the continued sense that, yeah, were going to get a hospital bed. When the market goes down 35 percent, of getting a little more bullish we just dont yoi yet know i think the fed and congress have now buffered trying to support collateral damage. Thats what were watching as well its one of the most surreal moments in any of our lives where on the one hand were watching the claims number and thats a number that were going to see thats going to be large, and at the same time were trying to analyze hospitalizations in new york city and whether weve seen a little bit of a slowing in that and watchinggovernor cuomo who youve got to admit, a hell of a governor of this state hes a democrat. Im willing to acknowledge that in this case in fact, you can watch him on predict it he keeps moving up in terms of National Aspirations youve got to admit. Did you ever think youd be watching a claims number and wondering whether hospitalizations are slowing enough so everyone will have an icu bed. No, not really. That challenges the whole flaems a lot of us have this and it presents a real established way of trying to sort those things out. Theres no way the two things arent look whats causing the unemployment claims. Its all interrelated. Every other guest has to be a doctor or epidemiologist for us to analyze whats happening. Its crazy hard to understand anyway, mike santoli, thank you. Becky, youre going to take us somewhere. I dont know where yeah. Joe, not to mention that were all doing that mental calculus to figure out if weve got enough toilet paper we need to get through this as you mentioned, every other guest being a doctor when we come back, we are going to be talking to a doctor who runs a network of hospitals, outpatient services, longterm facilities hell be talking to us next to talk about what he sees in virginia lets get a check on futures this morning right now it looks like the dow is indicated to open down 180 points when we started the show at 6 a. M. Eastern time the dow was down by over 315 points. This of course comes after a couple of days in a row of gains. Big gains. The dow has gained more than 13 . Staeb down than it had squawk box will be right back. 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As you know coronavirus is putting a crunch of Health Care Systems. Joining us is the leader of Innova Health care systems in virginia dr. Jay steven jones is the president and ceo. Thank you for being with us. My pleasure good morning, becky. Lets talk a little bit about what youre seeing here in new york were getting stories, there was one in the New York Times today, about elm hurst hospital in new york city, one of the doctors described the scene as apocalyptic there were 13 deaths in one day from coronavirus they are facing overwhelming and very straining situations. What are you seeing in your systems at this point . It is heartbreaking to hear that there are things like that going on anywhere in the world and in our own country our thoughts certainly go out to that situation we are in significantly better shape here at least in this position, two weeks ago what i had said was were prepared and have seen our first patient. What weve seen since then is we have Community Spread now in the washington, d. C. , area in fact, most of our exposures have been through the community and not through the early things like travel and health care. We have seen that our people have done exactly what we would expect, which is they practice what they spent their whole careers being ready to do which is take care of people that are critically ill as you know, coronavirus is not unique many aspects of its care, its intense Critical Care for those who do need it weve had adequate capacity to be able to do that so far and are doing very well. Dr. Scott gottleib, the former commissioner of the fda told us yesterday, i believe, that he is worried about pockets including the area in washington, d. C. , and surrounding areas. Thats where you operate how worried are you or is this a situation where you think steps that are being taken can bent the curve effectively. We are hopeful. We have to be prepared to assume that may not be the case as well we make no assumptions on how quickly this will be over or how much the curve has been flattened. One of the keys with any protections is this is a disease with less than four months of tracking data so models and things you can follow, decades or other diseases, this is a fourmonth old disease we make no assumptions on that and well be prepared for assuming the worst where do you stand right now in terms of supplies when it comes to testing kits . Were still in good shape on supplies i think whats interesting, i was walking the halls in one of the hospitals on monday morning. Ive heard we might not have enough supplies. I was able to say very accurately, we absolutely have enough supplies. We dont have enough supplies to use them unwisely or squaunder them weve been meticulously to make sure we use all of our ppe, personal protective equipment, i think its becoming a wellknown term at this point in the public, and then also the testing kits the testing kits still are probably our most significant supply challenge and the situation has been a significant limitation, including that we have a lot of times where we have to use ppe because we dont have tests back to know whether the patient truly needs to be in that type of isolation so the quicker we can get that, its not that it changes the management of patients, it changes how you deal with them including ppe, isolation and et cetera. Im sorry, whats ppe stand for . Personal protective equipment. Its been the biggest focus. Its an issue that hospitals that you mentioned are having because they dont have enough masks and gowns and things to protect themselves one of our highest priorities including innova is protecting our own team members who are taking care of patients and thats critical that we do that not only now but however long this goes on dr. Jones, i want to thank you. Thank you were seeing inspirational work in our teams thank you. Take care well talk to you soon okay. Thank you. Andrew. Okay. Federal reserve chairman jay powell speaking moments ago on the today show about the feds response to the coronavirus outbreak is there any limit to the amount of money the fed is willing toput into this econom to keep it afloat . Is it a blank check . No. We can continue to make loans and really the point of all of that is to support the flow of credit in the economy to households and businesses. So youre saying, no, its not a blank check but, yes, youre prepared to spend an unprecedented amount we certainly are. Steve liesman joins us now with his reaction to some of the comments that jay powell just made on air. Steve . Reporter andrew, i thought that was an important part of it actually later on in the interview he says, we are not out of ammunition. He says the Federal Reserve still has multiple dimensions in which to come in and support the economy. He did say we are likely in a recession but said this is a different sort of thing. This is a downturn not created by anything wrong with the economy, its caused by the order of Public Health officials and the desire of people to stay inside and not do work and to idle back the economy. So when this thing passes given the right amount of stimulus and lending from the Federal Reserve, he seemed reasonably optimistic about a rebound on the other side saying nothing is fundamentally wrong with the economy. Lets see what else. He did speak favorably about the stimulus saying he will provide relief and stability and said the fed can step in anywhere the fed is not winning Steve Liesman, we will see you in a little bit. Andrew. Take it back over to joe. Yes, steve i was going to say go ahead. I was going to say one more thing. The idea hes doing this at all is interesting you guys remember the beating the fed took in the last crisis. I think theres a proactive effort on the part of the fed to get out in front of it and not only say it is helping the american public, it is, but kind of avoid that backlash the fed got last time by really supporting the banks and Banking System joe . Steve, thanks were going to come right back coming up, the senate which passed a stimulus relief, now its going to head to the house. Were going to speak to senator Chris Van Hollen about what it means. Make sure you deep locked on cnbc 9 a. M. Dont miss treasury secretary steve mnuchin. Well be right back. 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Still to come on squawk box this morning, the Senate Passing a huge stimulus bill it is now heading to the house which hopes to approve it by tomorrow were going to discuss what it means for the economy and the American People with senator Chris Van Hollen well do that next then at 8 eastern, dont miss this legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones is going to join us. So far hes called this one right. As we head to the break, check out the biggest dow gainers this morning. Stay tuned were back right after this. vo quickbooks salutes the grit and determination of those who work for themselves. Theyre the backbone of our economy. And in these challenging times, theyre adapting to support their communities. So be sure to support them in return. Intuit quickbooks. Welcome back to cnbcs breaking news of the coverage of the coronavirus pandemic the government response and the reactions in the markets take a look at u. S. Equities futures right now. We are about an hour before were going to get those jobless claims numbers which may shatter records. Thats not going to be a good thing, but dow looking like it would open down 200 points 190 points nasdaq about 42 points down. The s p 500 looking to open down 23 points. Breaking late last night, the senate approving the stimulus relief bill that moves to the house. Eamon javers joins us with more on the latest. Eamon . Reporter andrew, it was an historic 960 vote on historic 2 trillion stimulus bill. You can call it an aid bill. Its designed to support the economy and all of the actor that have been so badly hurt fed pair jay powell was on the today show a very rare interview talking about this bill being the front lines and the fed being the backstock. Heres what he said. I would look to the legislation that passed last night or this morning really, which is going to direct aid to small, medium and Large Businesses, to low and moderate communities, unemployed, state and local governments, the Health Care System thats really where the immediate relief is going to come from. The help from the fed will be when the economy begins to rebound, then well be there to make sure that rebound is as strong as possible take a look at whats in this package. Theyre calling it the cares bill the main piece that a lot of americans will see first is the direct aid, up to 1,200 per individual 500 per child payment in there. All of that begins to phase out as you get up towards 75,000 in annual income and nothing over 100,000 in annual income. For the unemployed it expands benefits from 39 weeks from 26 weeks. It extends benefits to gig workers and the selfemployed. Thats new for this bill and thats going to be important for all of the uber drivers out there. For Small Businesses, theres a 350 billion Small Business loan program. Those loans though can be forgiven after an eightweek period if the firms dont layoff any employees. Thats essentially free money for a lot of Small Businesses across the country for big businesses, 500 billion in loans with direct aid to companies. The government could take an equity stake here. The Federal Reserve will massively expand its lending facilities backed by some money into the treasury for the states its 150 billion in direct aid for hospitals. 100 billion in aid plus a bump in medicare payments for virus patients so, andrew, theres an enormous amount in this bill. Well spend probably the next couple of days combing through it finding out what all is in there. Those are the big headline numbers for you now. Eamon, a quick question for you. Maybe this is just a link questions sticks issue it could be important. In the full screen you showed says they can be forgiven . Yeah, they will be forgiven under certain conditions the main condition is the employers have to not layoff anybody. If you look at the language, it looks like theres a calculation based on the average number of employees from february to june. I want to get more clarity on how theyre going to define not laying off anybody so Small Business owners can understand their obligation here. The idea is if you dont layoff anybody from your company, if you have the same number at the end of the loan as you did the beginning, that is free money. Theres forbearance im sorry, go ahead. What if you already laid off people well, thats thats a question that a lot of Small Businesses have and were trying to get some answers to it. I believe that what were looking at here is an average number of employees. If you rehire them after you get the loan, there may be a work around there if you rehire other people, if not the just before yeah as long as you have the same head count there may be a work around there im looking to the senate for more details on how that works, who counts and what the dates are. Whats the date frame for the head count issue all of that is important great, eamon joining us on the phone, senator Chris Van Hollen from maryland serves on the appropriations, banking, environment and budget committees good job, senator. Its done. We know that we dont like the perfect to be the enemy of the good, we dont like that express or whatever it is, but would you say what both sides got was not perfect but it was good or are both sides still stinging from not getting everything they wanted in there . How are you feeling about it well, its good to be with you, joe, and the gang i would say its the former. I think people recognize that this isnt perfect i would not have written this bill exactly this way but overall this is a good thing for the country. Its an emergency. Its rare you get a 960 vote in the Senate Unless its Something Like naming the post office after a historic figure. So this is a 2 trillion bill. Its an important rescue operation. I see this as an effort to weather the storm. With respect to the last question that was raised on Small Businesses and how you get your loan forgiven, if youve already laid off employees, and some of course have, if you use these funds to rehire those employees and use them to pay your, you know, fixed debts, then you qualify sop obviously there are lots of people who have already had to close their doors since they will be given. They should last about two months thats one area that may well need to be extended depending on what happens with fighting the virus. Does it walk the fine line between main street and big corporations and wall street, senator . And i would imagine that weve all learned given what happened last time around in the financial crisis, you learn hopefully you learn from every one of these situations, but do you think it makes it threads that needle for not making it look like were just subsidizing risk in the private sector and then having the taxpayers shoulder it . I think so. This was an issue of great concern to many of us. Really trying to lock down the safeguards and accountability, especially around the monies that go to some of the biggest businesses, big corporations and we made it absolutely clear that to the extent that the government is providing cash, equity as opposed to loans, its important to protect the taxpayers interests by taking, you know, a nonvoting stock interest that would be sold off later on most of that is in the form of loans relief to the large companies, and i would say that, you know, if you look at wo workers, the main two components here are how the beefed up Unemployment Compensation will work along with the Small Business loan forgiven piece those two taken together are designed to make sure that on the first in the first instance we try to keep employees on payroll, but if they cant be on payroll during this period of time, they would have at least around 100 replacement income in many cases when they go on Unemployment Compensation for the fourmonth period so its an emergency bill that i think to answer your question, i think it addresses all parts of the economy in a smart way i wanted to go further with this, senator. Do you think at this point what its designed to do is not a bail out really . Maybe we didnt need to be quite as concerned since its a relief package and since you cant really assign any blame, i dont think. Maybe you can talk about previous buy backs, things like that, that in hindsight certainly dont look like theyre strategically very smart, but that makes this a little bit different and i think otherwise republicans and democrats, theyve been like cats and dogs really, thats the only thing that allowed this to come together so quickly and with a pretty good outcome, i think dont you think that were all in this together like we keep saying yeah, we are. And as you said, i mean, this is you know, we have to fight this coronavirus and that means both surging resources to the front lines, to the health care workers. Making sure that we really begin to deploy more tests i mean, we did get caught way behind on that beginning to catch up. Obviously we need to make sure that we get the personal protective equipment to the nurses and doctors and others on the front line got to get the ventilators so weve really got to win this fight against coronavirus, and of course a big part of that has been social distancing and so its certainly not the fault of any business that we dont have, you know, customers coming into the door of the restaurant or getting on an airplane thats why i agree with those who say this is not a stimulus package, right putting more money into someones pocket at this point in time is really to make sure they pay their ongoing bills its not because theyre going to be able to run out and go to a restaurant or go to disney world or anything like that. So this is senator weathering the storm. Senator, to that end, if this is really about weathering the storm, given that the airlines asked for a very specific bailout thats industry specific, if you will, so its not part of the broader package, can you justify to the public and explain your rationale when the executive compensation program, capping that at 425,000 a lot of americans, Small Business owners and others, are going to think thats unconscionable, and also the fact that certain ceos, for example, are likely to make millions of dollars. Can you explain your rationalization or justification for that i dont like that provision you asked me at the beginning whether i thought this was a perfect bill this is far from a perfect bill, actually, and there were a whole series of concerns that i had and others going to the biggest like the Airline Industry, now we tied down some important perspectives when it comes to stock buy backs. That was important as you say, the Airline Industry was on a stock buy back spree so before this. Executive compensation has been limited. I mean, funds from this cannot be used to give bonuses, but one of the things were going to be watching closely is how those monies are spent, which is why we created a number of oversight mechanisms, including Inspector General with subpoena power. I would have liked to see a lot more of these conditions written into the bill itself some were, but with respect to others, its going to be a vigilant public thats going to, i think, have to be the watchdog here along with the congress and oversight. So to answer your question, i would have preferred to see more limitations on the use of these funds written into the bill when it comes to the kind of things youre talking about, executive compensation would you call off the boards would you call on the board to the airlines, for example, not to compensate at 2019 levels . Yes yes, i would, and i can tell you, and i think you know this, i have talked to some of the folks at, you know, some of the big hotels for example, marriott is based in bethesda, maryland, my state. I know that the ceo, arty sorenson, hes not taking any pay. They had to layoff employees because no one was coming into the doors of their hotels. And he says, you know, im not going to be taking any pay while im laying off employees so, yeah, i hope i hope this may be whistling in the wind here, but i would hope ceos and some of these folks would understand that they need to be part of this effort to, you know, sacrifice some as we go through this very difficult period Many Americans are getting hammered the whole purpose of this relief bill is to try to soften the blow on those workers, but i can tell you, americans and certainly myself and many others will not take kindly if we believe executives are abusing the resources in this bill that were designed to get through the storm, not pad anybodys pocket. Okay. Senator Chris Van Hollen, thank you for joining us this morning. Becky, over to you. Good to be with you. Right now lets get to the latest on whats happening in the fight against the coronavirus. Meg tirrell is here with the headlines on that. Good to see you, meg reporter good to see you, becky. Lets start with good news we dont get to talk about it very much. Yesterday Governor Andrew Cuomo pointing out that in westchester it appears new case numbers may be slowing hes saying we do know how to slow this and we can slow it and you can see here, the blue line is Westchester County those case numbers over the past couple of days have come down. We need more data to tell if something is starting to flatten or end and that can be potentially good news. The yellow line is new orleans we show you these numbers because Public Health experts are pointing to differences around the country in these outbreaks and a lack of a coordinated national response. Youre seeing policies on the county level differing sometimes even when counties are right next to one another. We have a map here of the stay at home orders issued by governors in different states. Now these stay at home orders account for about half of americans right now in terms of population according to evercore isi some states have partial stay at home orders. For example, nevada has no statewide or any stay at home order in place with more than 300 cases. New mexico has one in place with 300 cases. Florida and texas, the governors have left it to the local governments to impose those orders experts are saying because we travel so much in this country, that could lead to seeding outbreaks elsewhere even as were getting a handle on it around the country dr. Michelle barry said we need a coordinated national messaging. In order to get us to a place where were responding to it, people travel so much, if were taking care of it in one place and not taking care of it in another, it could take longer to flatten the curve. For more on the fight against the coronavirus in the United States, want to bring in dr. Zeke emmanuel, white house policy advisor hes vice provost of global initiatives at university of pennsylvania dr. Emmanuel, thank you for joining us nice to be here. Zeke, one of the things were all trying to figure out is the time line. That is probably singularly for business owners, for the health of the country, for everybody trying to figure out what does this time line look like weve heard the president talk about easter weve heard people in his administration saying each curve, which is local, could lost somewhere between eight and ten weeks. How do you see this playing out . Just so we understand. Yes so the best, i think, analogy we have or the best place to look is what happened in china with imposition of physical distancing and quarantine. And if you look at their curves, they implemented this roughly at the end of january, the last week of january. And over the last few days theyve announced no new cases of covid19. That gives you an eightweek curve. These curves for those of your viewers who have looked, theyre symmetrical. As they go up, they come down. Theyre bellshaped curves i think the eight to ten week time period is probably right, but that assumes something very important which meg got to, which is we have to have a coordinated national effort. This patch work which ive been decrying is undermining the efforts. States that are imposing the stay at home orders, the quarantines, if other states arent, theyre not getting the maximal benefit from a Public Health stand point of those stay at home orders and theyre receiving all the economic pain. We need a national effort. It has to last eight to ten weeks or so and then during that time we need to have testing ramped up massively. Also, we need to have Contact Tracing, something they did in south korea so that if a case does pop up after we begin to slowly release the stay at home orders, we can actually identify and isolate those cases so we dont have a big outbreak. Those are the kinds of actions we need. Zeke, heres yes the thing im trying to understand is lets say new york is two to three weeks away from its peak and, therefore, there would be another three or four weeks on the other side of that. If at the same time we have this rolling across the country with the possibility that people could travel back into other states like new york that might have been on the other end of the peak, how long does that go on for if we arent going to do a full national 30 day shutdown if we have this conversation in september, what will we be talking about . Well, if we dont do a full National Shutdown and we actually allow different states to go different ways and you have mississippi allowing everyone to gather, you are going to have just these roller coasters where we contain it in some area, then we try to ease it up and it just blossoms again. We are never going to get it under control. We will see 1 3 of the population infected. Thats 1 Million People dying. Let me remind you, thats twice as many deaths as from cancer in the entire country people say, we should let states go dont appreciate the magnitude of this problem. Zeke, but also speak to this, because weve talked about this a lot with you over time yes. Some people say that the cure is the cost of the the cost is worth more than the cure basically doing what were doing is going to be so economically damaging, thats going to create its own Health Crisis overtime youve talked about what to do over the age of i believe 75 if i remember you know, how do you think about that tradeoff . This is about a moral and economic tradeoff thats taking place here. Its absolutely, but i think if we do eight to ten weeks now nationally, i think we can get to the sweet spot in between if you dont, if you do the patch work, lets say in september are we going to have any big conferences everyones going to attend . No are you going to have a lot more travel to disney world or disneyland no are you going to have restaurants open they might open for a little bit and then covid explodes and theyll have to close back down. I think that is much more uncertain, much more of a roller coaster and in that roller coaster, i predicted, i wrote about a couple of weeks ago if we dont do a national implementation, we will not be able to get the economy going. It will be in fits and starts and it will not solve the problem. I totally am sympathetic to you. Ten weeks of quarantines with physical distancing is a big imposition on the economy, but the alternative is we actually do not get going, we dont open up the economy because every time we do we get a blossom of cases, overwhelming number of deaths and overwhelming of the health system. Doctor, the heartbreaking situation that weve seen in italy where doctors need to choose lets go back. Please drill down ethically on your view and what needs to change youve told us a couple of times that people over 75 should stop getting treatment. They shouldnt be wasting their resources excuse me. Okay. You are totally no, no, its not that modified you totally misquoted me and i really object to that. What did you say . What i said that article was not a policy article that was a personal reflection, my view of my life and i said explicitly in that article this isnt a policy decision. I dont say cut off medicare at 75 thats something governor patrick of texas says. What did you say . Thats a personal view. If a patient if a person says, listen, i dont want medical intervention after 75, i dont want to be intubated if i get covid, i totally respect that and that would be my position s im not saying thats a National Policy. Thats a personal position we should ask every person to think deeply do they want to be intubated if they got covid. I totally agree with that. Thats not the National Policy the National Policy has to be we provide health care to everyone and we want to save everyones life if they want it, okay thats my position so i would really appreciate you quoting me correctly and not we had long discussions on it i didnt know you i mean, personally i didnt agree myself. Ill send you the article. Okay. No, i believe you. But i disagree personally that i would do that as well. Okay. We all want to live as well as we can. Thats one of the great things about america we can have a disagreement but the policy allows you to do what you want and me to do what i want okay. Very good. Thank you. We appreciate your time this morning. When we come back, were going to talk to Paul Tudor Jones. Stay with us the barkins are empty nesters now. Should they downsize . Probably. Will they . Not as long as thanksgiving is a holiday. Planning for the future is about more than just money. Let equitable be your guide. I used to be bad with money, but im not anymore. I knew i had to take control of the situation. I got my money right with sofi. I opened a sofi money account and it was the first time that i realized that i could be earning interest back on my money. This is amazing. I just discovered sofi, and im an investor with a diversified portfolio. Who am i . i searched and found sofi and paid off my credit cards and felt a weight come off my shoulders. I refinanced my Student Loans with sofi and was able to cut my Interest Rate by 40 . Cha ching its because of sofi, i was able to acquire my first home. Wow, this is, is victory, i did it thank you sofi all right. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc we are live from disparate locations. Actually, looked up disparate. It doesnt mean separate, it means totally differ locations and totally different situations, but here we are. The senate approving a 2 trillion package aimed at easing the pain from coronavirus. The house on the clock set to vote tomorrow. Were about 30 minutes away from the labor market carnage the latest jobless claims number expected to smash all previous records. And fed chair jay powell tells cnbc or nbc, in fact, that the central bank isnt out of ammunition yet cnbcs breaking news of the pandemic and the market response continues right now. Good morning, everybody. This is cnbc im becky quick along with joe kernen and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Here we are alone together weve been watching futures together and the picture has weakened pretty significantly. Just in the last 20 minutes or so we are looking at the dow. Looking at implied open down of 415 points weve been all over the place this morning we are at some of the weakest levels the dow down by 425 points s p down by 47 and the nasdaq off by 116 of course, this comes after two big up day, at least for the dow and the s p 500. Nasdaq was a little bit weaker yesterday, but the dow finally put together two days in a row of higher closes as did the s p 500. I thinkit was all the way back to february 5th and sixth since the last time weve seen two days where the dow was up and the 12th and 13th of february. For the last time we saw the s p do Something Like that the 10year note has gotten weaker in yield in the last hour, too. Its yielding 0. 87 . Weve been above 0. 8 the last couple of days who am i sending it over to . Andrew great thank you, becky Hedge Fund Titan Paul Tudor Jones was the first to tell us on squawk box he was worried about coronavirus with us in davos back on january 21st heres what he had to say. Theres no anecdote theres no vaccination theres no cure. We dont even know what the incubation period is and youre get thissing ready to go to the biggest travel period in china. Are you seeing through this or not i mean, on a morning like today. Im a trader, not investor. Correct if i was an investor, id be really nervous since those comments the s p has fallen 25 Paul Tudor Jones is our guest. He joins us now. The founder, chief Investment Officer of tudor investment corporation, chairman of just capital and the founder of robinhood. Paul, thank you for joining us this morning thank you, andrew what a damn mess you have what a mess tell us about it youve been thinking about this i think literally since we spoke with you back in january you also wrote a letter to your investors in february calling this right again so understanding where your head is at right now, where the market is at and where this is all headed is very important how do you see it . Well, i think covid19 is listen, its unlike anything weve obviously ever seen before if we kind of think about where we are right now, were probably if you look at the Human Experience and we extrapolate from that what is getting ready to happen in the United States, to new york in particular, were probably were probably going to hit our peak somewhere between april 4th and april 10th my guess is we can have somewhere between 3 and 400,000 cases in the United States its going to be a thats going to be a really challenging period i think for us as americans because certainly in new york city our Health Care System is going to get overwhelmed and its going to be something i think all of us have to steel ourselves for theres a really high probability its going to come i dont think we need to panic i look at this like when i used to box i remember, i never got knocked out in my life, but having seen many people get knocked down, you learn something from that in your next fight, and i think what were going to do is were going to see the worst of covid19 its going to throw its best punch over the course of the next say somewhere in the next two weeks and then were going to be on the back side of that the good news, the great news is that in hubei from the peak, it was 24 days, 24 days before they went back down to under 100 cases a day. We have to remember, there is light on the other side of this. Were going to get through it. Its going to be something that unfortunately probably didnt have to happen but has happened. Lets not think about what could have been, lets think about where were going to be, what were going to do on the other side paul, explain this. Youre using hubei numbers to extrapolate out and model out, and i would tell you, by the way, i love your optimism. I hope youre right. One of the questions though is whether this starts to roll across the country, meaning, you know, the measures that were taken in china really did quarantine the situation in hubei for the most part. We have not had a National Lockdown as we were just talking about with Zeke Emmanuel in the last hour. Were starting to see hot spots emerge in other places like new orleans and atlanta, elsewhere you know, new york may have its own curve, and hopefully we will get to the other side of that in a couple of weeks, but there may be new curves that emerge. How do you think about that as part of that time line or are you convinced that this is in lockdown now so clearly everything that you say is 100 correct. Im looking at italy, because i think italy is going to be the analog for us. Hubei they had in hubei command and control. If you think about china, its a surveillance economy everyone has an i. D. Every phone can be tracked if you think about the preventive measures they took, maybe on a scale of one to ten, theyre a ten and maybe where were going to go in a free society is Something Like a five so whereas they had railroad tracks, if you look at their epidemic curve, they had vertical railroad tracks, were going to probably have more like a hill and were going to have a fatter right tail. And, again, i would look at italy for us as the guide as to what we can expect, and then clearly were learning as we go through this, right . Again, if we go back to china, people who were food preparers, i was in mcdonalds yesterday, and theyre serving food without masks without gloves in china, all food preparers at fast food were Wearing Masks, were wearing gloves, they were taking their temperature on the streets, they were taking your temperature in restaurants its going to be interesting to see how our society responds to the pain and suffering that were going to witness over the course of the next two weeks as we get to the peak of the epidemic curve having said all of that, and it is listen, my heart goes out to the people that are going to be our First Responders. Our heart goes out to the people that are infected. My own daughter has cv19 right now. Shes recovering from it she had a mild case. Were so blessed at 25 years old, 26 years old she had nothing more than a mild case she and her fiance so ive seen firsthand what you have to do to selfquarantine. Ive seen firsthand the impacts ive had on them i get nervous, i get nervous and something as we go through these and, again, i think the next two weeks are going to be the most challenging for us from an emotional, psychological standpoint were going to see this curve and new cases escalate every day, but weve also got to be careful not to myth thol low guise this particular disease. Lets assume a worst Case Scenario lets assume a million cases, which is 2. 5 times what i think were going to have, and lets assume a mortality rate. Again, forgive me for speaking with such morbidity, but lets assume a fatality rate of 4 mortality rate of 4 like what were seeing globally. So 40,000 americans sadly and tragically will die. That still is the equivalent of what we see during the flu season so weve got to be careful not to mythologize this into the pandemic godzilla. We can beat this thing america can beat this thing. Humanity can beat this thing we actually will were going to squash it and send it back to the oblivion that it called out of. I have zero doubt in my mind about that, weve just got to be calm weve got to stay rational not panic over the next two weeks. Hey, paul, first of all, im so sorry to hear about your daughter. Shes fine. Shes great shes working she worked every single day remotely while she had it. Wow so, again, for the large portion of population this is not going to be a life threatening or its going to be life changing but not life threatening not a life threatening thing for a large portion of the population. I realize youve done the numbers and kind of worked this out, and that doesnt sound like its unreasonable to think 4 mortality, thats probably higher than a lot of people think were going to see in terms of mortality cases no, no, i think i think it will be much less. Im saying in a worst case basis. I think it will be much less, too. I think on social media and the media weve got to realize were prone to hype things beyond what they are and we all have to remember i i yeah . I understand that entirely, and i just want to talk through a little bit what we hear from doctors pretty frequently, including dr. Scott gottleib who were going to talk with in a minute, is the concern that even though he thinks, too, youll come out the other side, youre talking eight to ten weeks on Something Like this, the concern doctors have is trying to flatten the curve right now so it is less overwhelming on the Health Care Systems in new york city do you go along with that . Some people hear this and say it should be business as usual and states should not do lockdowns is that what youre saying no. Be extraordinary vigilant, implement extreme Safety Measures until we get on the other side and see it in a free fall theres no question thats what we have to do. I think and my guess is that thats going to be sometime in late april, early may. That would be optimistic that would be following the hubei example. Again, if you just think about this, weve got these incredible experiments going on country by country. Some of it, china, command and control, singapore, command and control. Hong kong, command and control they did a great job weve got free societies in europe, in the United States theyre experiencing are going to experience much different outcomes and then tragically weve got less developed countries like in africa who i worry about the most with the most vulnerable populations who are not going to be able, i think, to get even as far as many free societies in western europe as well as the United States. And those are the ones that i worry about the most but where well end up say, three, four, five months from now is well have these beta tests of strar yous degrees of intervention, various degrees of on boarding by private citizens of the protocols that it takes to actually stop this, and then well also have a real time gdp experiment to understand the impacts it has on the economies and well know so much more in three or four months and i think well be prepared. Fool me once, shame on you fool me twice, shame on me well be so much better prepared this fall to be able to deal with this, and i think to get back to business as usual and to resume the way our lives were but three months ago and i think well learn, again tragically, a lot about our immunity because were going to see that unfold and practiced real time in some less developed countries. Hey, paul, you know, you were right on the money january 21st, rather, to tell us that if you were an investor, you would be nervous. You would be risk off. Given where we are right now in terms of the curve that youve now talked about and where the stock market is right now, if you were an investor, what would you be doing well, i think i think whats i think what were going to see is first of all, lets frame whats happened from a monetary and fiscal stance we have a fiscal package of 10 of gdp thats double what we got in october of 2008. Double they came with another package in march of 2009 that got us up to 10 , and my guess is well be back with a bigger fiscal package somewhere down the road. From a monetary standpoint, weve already and by the end of this week well have bought 1 trillion worth of treasuries and mortgage backs we did in two weeks what it took the fed eight months to do in 2009 remember, we didnt even get quantitative easing until well after the great financial crisis had started, well into the recession. Here weve got a trillion in two weeks. By may we will have already at this rate already have purchased what took us six years to do in the great financial crisis investors can take heart that weve counter acted this existential shock with the greatest fiscal monetary bazooka. Its not even a bazooka, its more like a nuclear bomb thats literally the Counter Measures that we brought in to sit there and to bring safety to our economic system. So i think some combination of those two will buy us time as chairman powell said this morning, its the bridge to the future now what happened so my guess is my guess is one of the reasons the market is up right now is because of all of the monthend rebalancing, the market is seizing the equities to buy thats one reason why my guess is well stay firm into month end. Well be challenged into april well be challenged as we go through the epicenter the peak of the epidemic curve so i think that could bring us to a retest. It might bring us to a fractional new low, but i do think the stock market is going to find a bottom once we get the peak in the epidemic curve, no doubt in my mind the stock market will rally and it should rally. My guess is well be higher three or four months from now, five months from now than lower where we are right now what happens after that is highly dependent upon our ability to get back to work, our ability to resume normal functioning. And its really interesting. Youve got this dynamic tension. Youve got people such as myself in the economic field thinking about getting back to work, thinking about resuming normal activity youve got people in the medical profession who can only see the problems that theyre dealing with and, my god, again, my heart goes out to them because theyre dealing with these huge problems, but i can tell you from an economic standpoint each of us individually begin to think how were going to get back to work how were going to deal with the new normal if we dont begin today, not get paralyzed by the next two weeks and think about how were going to resume a normal life on the back end of this epidemic curve, were all making a big mistake so weve got to look through these numbers, look through the tragedy of the next two weeks, think about how were going to restart our lives, think about how were going to deal with the new normal and think about how were going to restart america the thing that im nervous about and one reason why i keep pushing this theme so much is that i think people give our economy too much credit for its resilience if i just look at the biggest thing that im worried about for the long run is that we have a huge, enormous debt buildup of the last four decades to levels weve never seen before in the history of this country. So debt to gdp going into the 2000 nasdaq top was 180 in 2007 it was 225 and at the end of this year were going to be 270 . So it makes me really nervous, the resiliency, the possibility of a v bottom. We have impediments to that. We have structural impediments which is the amount of debt we have so i think were going to have to think smart and were going to have to begin now to think about how are we going to restart our businesses and do it living with cbi and we might have to live with something thats going to be an impairment to our society, but it doesnt have to be the end of our society. So i dont know if well eradicate it i do know that if we have greatesting, if we can have just in a few months time, three, four, five months time, if we have testing so that we can identify and begin Contact Tracing individually, and as a society if we embrace that, then we can live with cv19 we can live with people being out of work for a period of time, selfisolate, quarantine, and get back to things as normal i think thats what weve got to do im most hopeful for the testing. Paul, youre a trader obviously, but youre also a human being and you talk about, you know, your family and things like that. When you were most i dont know whether you would call it despair, but at your moment of peak worry about this, did you ever think in numbers of millions dying in the United States was that a possibility at some point . And is it still a possibility that it could get to that point or did you zero chance zero chance. Zero chance. Please, we are we are too smart. We are too smart as a people were too resilient. Again, i think when this is all over and said and done were going to look at death rates very similarly to the flu because were going to take the precautions that are necessary to keep us from suffering from that type of mortality rate from cv19. What im worried about, ill be really honest, what im worried about is, again, if our economy is oh, my lord. We had a 40, 50year buildup of a globally interconnected, globally leveraged, highly sophisticated finetuned economy built on built on global trust, built on individual trust. Institutions with huge amounts of cross connectivity. So now all of a sudden weve got this again, this event that has stopped all of that. Were closing borders. Were going insular. So im more nervous about what happens if we have something thats between the Great Depression and the great financial crisis what are the human impacts of that im much more nervous about the loss of life that could come with a 15 or 20 Unemployment Rate than i am about the loss of life that comes with cv19 cv19 may cost us lets say cv19, again i think were going to peak out somewhere in the 3 to 400,000 range again, if i used a an overly pessimistic view of 4 mortality rate because our Health Care System will be overwhelmed in the next two weeks, were talking 16,000 people. In the Great Depression there was a study that was out, a tenpoint rise in the Unemployment Rate could have as many as 200,000 fatalities associated with it from health impairment, suicides, opioid use, drug use, et cetera so im thinking about and, again, as someone in the economic world, i understand the necessity and the need for us to deal with cv19, but i dont think thats our biggest threat. Our biggest threat is what happens to the economy on the other side, and thats why i think each of us has to think how are we going to restart our business what do we need to do to make people say feel safe to interact again in business Wearing Masks Wearing Masks, wearing gloves, wiping down. I think as American People were fastidious and well do this were going to kick this bugs ass and weve got to think about how were going to resume our normal lives hey, paul, we want to thank you for joining us, but before we let you go, i know youre doing a lot of work with robinhood in new york which is going to be the epicenter of this, at least in the near term. What are you working on with the robinhood program in new york right now . Well, we had our benefit scheduled a year ago for may 11th at the Javits Center. The Javits Center is now a hospital, but were going to have our benefit its going to be a virtual benefit. Its going to be on may 11th were going to broadcast from a variety of locations were still going to instead of serving having 4,000 people, were going to hopefully have this televised and were going to have with us 400,000, 4 million. New york city is the epicenter, and this bill that was just passed that you know, if you listen to pelosi, schumer, trump, workers, workers, workers. God forbid were goingto need help for american workers, they deserve it, but theres again, there wasnt that much in there for the most destitute and the most poor, and so, yes, we got relief for workers, but in new york, which is the most number of people in poverty, 1. 8 million, theres a lot of undocumented workers, there are people who have been out of work for more than a month that will not be eligiblefor checks. I can tell you food pan tris have already seen a 50 spike in people going weve lost our volunteers because people are afraid to go out in a variety of our organizations. This is the most important time for people to help the most poor because theyre the ones that are going to suffer the most imagine all the kids in shelter who dont have the ability to get an education because they dont have online access, they dont have computers theres so much that weve got to do, and were going to do it on may 11th. So tune in because its going to be a great night its going to be an uplifting night. Its going to be like our 9 11 relief fund that we had back in 9 11 ill never forget. We were all so scared at the twin towers came down, then we had the anthrax scare. We were scared to even put that event on, and i remember at that event we had our First Responders and introducing the who, this fireman came up, he lost his brother in 9 11. He said, osama bin laden, you can kiss my royal fat irish ass, and the place went nuts. That moment, that was the moment that america began to fight back so im hoping may 11th will be one of those Beautiful Moments where well be on the back side of the epidemic curve. Well do it virtually and well show you can continue life but in a new way, and were going to continue business as usual and were going to help the people who need it the most its going to be a great night so more details on that. Well come back and, again, im optimistic this brings out the best in us, these crises do. 2008 and the great financial crisis robinhood raised more money than it ever has im really optimistic about the future i know well beat this thing and ill look forward to doing my small part in it, like each of us is going to Paul Tudor Jones, its a privilege to spend time with you. Thank you for spending the last half hour with us and our viewers. I know we all appreciate it. We just have literally seconds to go now before we are going to get the initial jobless claims numbers you just talked about, the workers that are not working right now. Were going to be looking for those numbers in just a moment dow jones teased them skyrocketing to a record 1. 5 million from last weeks 281,000 thanks to layoffs, as you might imagine, prompted by the coronavirus. Lets show you the futures right now. They are down 490. Nasdaq off 131 s p 500 off by 54. The tenyear note real quick, well show you that as we put that board around. Youre looking at the tenyear note at. 779 Rick Santelli is in chicago. He is standing by at the cme rick, the numbers, sir reporter its a big number its a big number. 3,283,000 our initial jobless claims say it again, 3,283,000. Continuing claims on a different time line by a week. 1. 803 million. So 1,803,000 on continuing claims just to put a little perspective here, i went back. March of 09 we were 665,000 in october of 82 we were 695,000. So these are huge numbers. But then again, you dont have to tell somebody a lady whos pregnant that youre going to have triplets, dont be shocked when you come down with three babies they shut down the system. They are shocking numbers. Thats not all the data. Advanced goods trade balance for february, thats minus 59. 9 billion. Thats smaller than the 63 we were expecting wholesale inventories down. 2. Gdp, third look Fourth Quarter as we end the First Quarter remained at 2. 1. No surprises there then, of course, these huge jumps in jobless claims. Joe, you know, theres not much to say everybody did Good Research from goldman, jpmorgan, Morgan Stanley. They gave us a heads up. We had, of course, our head of the fed talking to america this morning with regard to preparing them for this, but its still shocking nonetheless what was the worst, rick, that you saw on the street this is a multiple of that almost, isnt it, in terms of estimates . But as you say, maybe it shouldnt have been. Reporter you know, the worst i heard was 2. 5 to 3 million so it really wasnt that far off. That was the high side i heard that was darn close. Then of course this is a horrible thing, but the real issue is is that the economy is feeling the effects of turning the master Circuit Breaker of business down, and that had to be done, but the real question that nobody can answer, nobody can answer is when the switch goes back on, how quickly will it come back you know, you could be pessimistic, you could be optimistic, but its impossible to be realistic. We just dont have any facts. I dont know what to make of the futures. They seem to be getting a little better once you get that horrific number out anyway, who knows where well be as time goes on. Lets bring in two former chair men of the council of economic advisers Austin Goolsbee and glen hover mike santoli first, lets get to Steve Liesman for some reaction to these numbers. Steve, you probably i can cant imagine that your jaw dropped, steve ill bet you you were right in this area, werent you reporter absolutely. You know, canada did a million so i thought for sure it was going to be larger than the 1. 5. I did see one outsized note at 7 million. Let me say three good things about this, and people can throw things at the television if it works. First of all, it shows the states were able to process more claims than we thought they could. I have to imagine the people working at these statelevel unemployment state unemployment offices are working under tremendous duress. The same concerns about coronavirus. That was one of the things that was going to limit this number all along. Thats one desent thing, thesy were able to process it. The social safety net we had for all of igts failings is doing what its supposed to do, which is to get aid to people who are shocked by developments in the economy. Theres a third benefit here, joe, that i dont think weve thought about. Generous Unemployment Benefits, which dont exist now but are more in the bill, play a role in fighting the virus what you dont want is people having to take risks to go out and make money you want them to be able to shelter in place and have the money to afford that so getting these benefits out is part of the process of fighting the virus. Well need to review this, the bill that we have, to make sure its inclusive enough so as not to create the motivation on peoples parts yes, its a horrific number, terrible people are losing their jobs the question as to whether or not people are keeping people on the payroll and the stimulus, but its doing an important job that it was set up to do Austin Goolsbee, i probably could answer for you since youre on tv so much i know what youre going to say about all of this stuff from last night, but give me an idea of what you think of the number we gist heard and the fiscal response, assuming the house, you know, moves this forward what do you think our future looks like, austin well, look, its a brutal week we knew it lets hope they can get the relief out quickly because i think its clear people are going to need relief i think were in a circumstance where we just spent 2 trillion, its not really going to be stimulus in the conventional sense. This is just were going to take the money and were going to burn it to keep to keep people warm and so were definitely going to need another round of relief and when we start to unpack what was in this one, and it was done so hastily theres going to be problems with it, i am a little afraid of lets call it the political will, the political legitimacy of these rescues so in a way the fact that this was as abrupt and severe and all in one week as it was is a sign that, you know, maybe the ultimate v shape could exist, that people stop going to work because we went into lockdown and maybe once we get some control on the spread of the virus, maybe we can come back, if not as fast as it went down, maybe it can come back in some rapid kind of basis. Glen hubbard, agree with austin, more optimistic . I think i broadly agree with austin a pandemic is not a typical recession. This was a shutdown of the economy for legitimate health care reasons, and the purpose of a federal bill at the moment is a freeze in place simulating normal economy, try to keep people attached to jobs and keep incomes. The recovery bill obviously had to be done quickly so its not perfect, but i think particularly with small and midsized businesses it offers important aids and strengthening of Unemployment Insurance is also a very good idea. Were definitely not out of the woods. There are market stresses. The real economy stresses. I agree with austin, there will have to be some sort of a followup bill thats more of a true stimulus measure. So far i think policy has stepped up to the plate and now the question will be can it work is the implementation there . Mike santoli, this is unprecedented. I dont know what, 100 years at barons isnt going to help you here reporter no. No, absolutely not unprecedented in so many ways. You kind of hopefully anyway front loaded an entire recessions worth of unemployment claims into a single report. I know its now common place to say what matters most is the duration of this intentional stoppage of the economy, not as much what the numbers in a freeze frame look like today, and i do think its what breaks along the way. Do Companies Remain in place to rehire when we get through all of this . I know the market instinctually is going to want to have an excuse to anticipate and look through this huge shock. It will get it right eventually. The question is has it gotten it right already by coming off these lows because often we also know that it over anticipates these things so i think its anything that can give us a clue about the duration of what were in right now. But i also agree that the other impressive part as folks were saying, this anticipatory proactive backstop that both the Federal Reserve and congress have offered kind of, you know, trying to try and buffer this a little bit so i think its very difficult for markets to assimilate all of that and what might kind of break along the way. So, liesman, at this point is it i just cant imagine that its ever not about more about how the virus how that entire scenario plays out. Its more about that or now with this fiscal response and what we heard from the fed, is that really less important . How much weight are you giving to the biological aspects of this and the financial aspects at this point . Dont we need to know when peak infection is to really make any determinations about a v or a u or a w or an l reporter i was listening very closely to that interview with Paul Tudor Jones, joe every major investor i know and Major Investment Bank has hired some epidemiologist or is now crunching the data and trying to bring the tools of forecasting that exist in economics and Data Analysis to the growth of the virus here because, again, i dont want to talk, you know, in an inhumane way, but nothing is more important for the Investment Outlook than whats happening with the spread of the disease. You want to know when this economy is going to recover, when the shelter in place ends, its going to have to be with bending the curve of the disease. Theres another curve to think about which is secondary, which is this curve of unemployment. Immediately you ask a question, what happens next thursday i think i can imagine a series of big numbers like this until it begins to level off and then come down. And, you know, austin was very closely involved in creating some of the provisions in the last crisis stimulus bill, and this one is unique in that its offering incentives to Small Businesses and medium businesses to keep workers in place, and this idea of putting incentives in bills for workers for businesses to do the right thing is something thats relatively new and its really an interesting experiment to see if it will work, if the cheap loans will incentivize workers to keep them on their payroll. You know, thats a huge point, a huge question i have the feeling youre not going to see a lot of hiring any time soon, especially if mnuchins right. I think hes saying maybe three weeks before you see this money getting paid out, and that may be on the on tow mission stick side assuming there are no bumps along the way. Austin, i was going to ask you, do you anticipate like steve does, this is going to be a series of bad numbers . I can see it being incredibly bad as businesses try to make this work as administrative offices, as banks try to figure out how to make this work. A lot of that is going to be mechanical some places wont be able to figure out how to process the claims and others are going to be the extended nature and some people will be holding out or the biggest wave of the virus hasnt quite gotten to them. Not everywhere is in a shelter in place kind of environment i think the it just keeps putting back onto the nature of our data collection, lets call it, that most things come in with a lag and so i remind everybody, when we have the next jobs numbers, the jobs numbers, the Unemployment Rate and the jobs created come from a reference week and that reference week was before we hit the meltdown so the next months jobs numbers might not even look that bad, and hopefully people will not think thats a false dawn because like the unemployment claims, i think a lot of these things over the next two months are going to get worse and worse in an unprecedented way in terms of the numbers hey, glenn, one of the things i wanted to ask you because i know youve been behind this idea of this bridge loan with forgiveness on the other end, when you think about the Small Business owner who may very well be watching ustoday whos thinking about either whether they should lay people off right now because theyre looking at the end of the week and theyre saying theres no revenue coming in or theyre saying, well, if i just hold on long enough can i get this loan, i may not get it for a couple of weeks, its going to be a bit of a gamble, do you think people decide, you know what, im going to furlough or lay them off now and then i will try to rehire them later to capture maybe part of the loan, its unclear how the mechanism of that would work, again, if they dont keep these people employed the whole time and what data points should they be looking at to make these decisions . Part of its about the curve and where theyre based. If youre based in new orleans and youre looking like a hot spot, you could look at the calendar and say now its another ten weeks before i can even get to the other side of this potentially my position on the last piece, the bill does contemplate aid for that period. The real issue is can the administration and the congress communicate with the Small Business community that this is real and this is fast. One reason to go to banks is that they have those relationships and so the money can actually go out fairly quickly. Im a little more concerned about the Small Business administration overlay, but the banks themselves and Small Businesses should be able to do this other small and midsized groups if that happens, i think they can be shored up relatively fast great andrew . Joe youve got something andrew reporter i want to make one more point, joe. Im hearing steve reporter i just want to say this we have a lot of rich people who watch our show we love you as viewers there are charitable benefits in the stimulus bill for giving money where its needed now. Take a look at those, talk to your accountant and give there are charitable incentives in there for people so all of you of our fabulous wealthy viewers, take a look. Thank you thanks for that, steve yeah, speaking of wealthy people, thank you, Austin Goolsbee, glenn hubbard, Steve Liesman, rick santoli and Mike Santelli talking about the 2 million bill passed by the senate as well as todays big jobless claims numbers joe, thank you weve been talking all morning long about the impact of coronavirus on the markets, what it means investors trying to figure out exactly how long it will last. Lets bring in the opinion of a doctor on this, dr. Scott gottleib whos the former head of the fda hes a cnbc contributor and hes on the boards of phfizer. I heard it. I dont think what hes saying i dont think what hes saying is all that different than what youve been saying over this period of time. Hes very optimistic, looking to the other side and thinks america will come back strong. Wants to make sure Business Leaders are thinking about how to get back to business, but he did say that he thinks this is going to be an eight to tenweek period before that can happen. He anticipates the new york city Health Care System will be overrun. Why dont you tell us what youre hearing and how your views may or may not match up with his i think a lot of the things he said this morning is consistent with things weve been saying for a number of weeks now. Let me give you the optimistic case weve been talking about the down side case and about all of the tragedy and hardship the optimistic case is that the numbers that were seeing this week and the rapid growth in numbers is attesting artifact. There was a backlog of testing and most of those tests were drawn at the hospital. They were more likely to be positive patients. Once they move out testing and work the backlog, well see the rate of growth come down that we started early enough with the mitigation tactics and other states for the most part, i have some questions about that, but that is would be the optimistic case. New york is likely to peak in two weeks in terms of their epidemic curve the governor said anywhere from two to three weeks its going to be on the better half of that that would be the optimistic case, that we can control spread outside of new york city new york city peaks sooner and the rapid growth that were seeing this week is the function of an artifact of a backlog of testing drawn into hospitals were more likely to get positive cases the down side case, the sort of case of how this could get worse is that we now have nine cities that have more than 1500 cases if you look at china, china the bearish case, the worst Case Scenario is that you have multiple new yorks that louisiana, does, in fact new orleans does, in fact, become a place of epidemic spread, parts of florida do, perhaps chicago, other cities. That would be the worst Case Scenario where we are in that, its unclear. I mean, you can make an argument for either scenario right now playing out, and were going to figure that out in the next week i happen to think that there are cities outside new york where there will be spread, they were late in mitigation steps but not so late that they wont have an impact and we can avert whats happening in new york in other cities potentially you agree with what he says about potentially eight to ten weeks from now when we start coming out the other side . Well, if you think that the epidemics going to peak some point in april, probably in the later half of april, maybe the middle of april if youre going with the more optimistic scenario it will take another six weeks to come down the epidemic curve. Youre talking about getting into june until you start having cases come down to the point where you are clearing the epidemic here in the United States you cant flip an on and off switch what you are going to do as you reach the apex, youre going to start to look at the population wide tactics and see what you can lift off very gradually and implement other tools and other approaches to trying to mitigate spread so this is going to be a gradual process. China actually did this very well in terms of what did to pu the brake off slowly and implement other things to offset the mitigation tactics they were lifting, the populationwide tactics they were lifting. Were going to have to follow a similar course we need a plan for how to do that and a different toolbox for the fall to prevent this from happening again. I happen to believe well get that toolbox i think well have a therapeutic, broadbased surveillance in society so we can detect it quickly and intervene quickly. I want to thank you for your time hopefully well talk to you again tomorrow appreciate it. Thanks a lot. Okay, meantime, i want to get to cnbc headquarters where jim cramer joins us. Hes going to be speaking with the secretary of the treasury, steve mnuchin, in just a little bit. Curious what your take was, jim, on Paul Tudor Jones comments, a bit of optimism in terms of the timeline hes thinking about and where the market is, but he said theres a possible we still touch new lows i thought, obviously, this morning, was a great conversation its a person who has seen everything in the market and also is addicted to charity and has done so much for so many people i thought that this is a combination, hes the perfect merger of fauci and the crew that says, we have to get to work right now in the sense that obviously, fauci is standing for the fact we cant get people in any more trouble we cant risk peoples lives but at a certain point, we have to get back to work. And i think that the primary, which is health, which is something a lot of our viewers totally understand secondary is getting back to work now that we have the stimulus bill, and the stimulus, i think, is the way to tide us over through both of the longer and shorter periods that hes talking about. Im kind of excited about the fact at least theres something to make it so people can eat, but theres people in the cracks, and its always been his charity that we all contribute that is for the people in the cracks, and the bill does not have people in the cracks. Jim, i mean, was your peak despair when we thought we could be headed into hell with millions of deaths in the country. You heard Paul Tudor Jones said basically a worst Case Scenario would be a 4 mortality rate and 400,000 is a long way from 16 million the economy has to reopen, i hope this fiscal plan works, and all those things but the first thing that was most important to me was that we dont have that type of mortality in the United States and i think when, you know, you look into the abyss and you think thats possible and then someone turns a light on and maybe its really not, just made me feel much better. And hearing the way he said it, absolutely not never even considered it what did you think of that look, i think were a strong country. Were a democracy. There are people who want to do whats right what we have, i think, joe, is a kind of missalication of where people really need help versus other places where its like theyre ready to go back to work where we feel despair is we know states that have everything and the money and the masks somewhere are not worried about the paper and the New York Times and not seeing whats going on this is not despair. Its more, lets get it evened out. Lets get the people who really need it the help stay strong, but i think youre right. In the end, what weve got here is a problem that i believe can be beaten. I just wish the damn thing wasnt so crafty we dont see it. We dont know it its on the surfaces but i just think that weve got to get it so the lockdown works. San franciscos got very few cases. New york has a lot lets make it so its not state by state, city by city, and get the resources to where people really need it, and focus on the fact that its not as horrible as it seems. Well, im putting a lot of stock in what he said. I just hope hes right but none of us, actually, i did have a couple questions. Im putting stock in optimism when i see business doing business has been the greatest source of change during this period business is getting the masks. Business is getting the personal equipment. Business is there. A lot of stuff in the bill about the army, about National Guard we havent really heard from them enough. Thats because they needed the resources. There so many things being thrown at this issue right now that if youre not optimistic, your head is in the sand okay, jim thank you. We appreciate that where were headed now, i dont know if were headed to break. Where are we going all right. Lets do futures bazaar. As it happens a lot of times i think we were down about 400 or more when the claims number came out we have cut those losses basically in half. Well see what the rest of the actual trading session brings once we open at about 9 30 but you might recall yesterday, we were up well over 1,000 points until it looked like there were some problems, maybe, brewing with the senate bill and then that didnt happen and we pulled back that we were up just under 500, and now were giving back a couple hundred of those, becky i feel like were owed the 1200, if the deal was going to be done, were supposed to get 12 moinlts, and we dont have it. We have like 300 i dont know what happened you looked at the dow up the dow is up almost 14 over the last two sessions. I wouldnt worry too much about what youre seeing just this morning. In fact, based on the unemployment numbers, the jobless claims 3. 28 million that was at the very high end of what had been anticipated even by those who were really out on a limb guessing on some of those things thats what made the need for the 2 trillion stimulus package that the Senate Passed late last night so important joining us to talk about that on the phone is iowa senator Chuck Grassley he is the chairman of the Senate Finance committee, and senator grassley, thank you for being with us this morning im sure you saw the jobless claims number. What did you think when you saw it it doesnt surprise me at all. And probably next week it will be just as high. And thats exactly why we should have been passing this legislation on monday, not on wednesday night at 11 30, and now tomorrow, friday, in the house of representatives its just critical the government has shut down business governments federal, state, and local. Its through no fault of those employees or the Small Businesses that had to lay them off. And i hope that this 2 trillion that were putting from the treasury into the federal into the economy, and i hope that the leveraging of the money that the feds doing plus the Stabilization Fund that we put into this legislation of 4. 5 billion, 450 billion, will also leverage so that we get about a 6 trillion kick to the economy out of this. And i think that particularly the Small Business part, which will help your restaurant employees and all that, that that will i think the banks are ready to go on that very, very quickly, and those are forgivable loans, if they keep the people on the payroll. So its going to take a long time to turn this around but this is really going to help do it. Senator, i assume youre hearing from Small Businesses, medi mediumsized businesses and probably Large Businesses in your constituency. What have you heard from them, whats the message you have taken back to your colleagues, some of whom didnt want to pay out quite as much when it came to Unemployment Benefits too i think that obviously, this is a bipartisan bill passing 960 and it needs to be bipartisan in a time of conflict like were having right now and the Public Health problem the public has to know that theyre pulling together i think the grassroots, they are, and what i heard from my Small Business was first of all, probably the shock, probably didnt hear as much as you would normally hear. I mean, i think people are just shocked. Theres a lot of anxiety out there. I hope this bill helps reduce that anxiety but to help people over this hump, thats no fault of their own, and just think, a month ago, we thought we had the strongest economy ever and it was going to keep going forever. And so this is a real shock. But to help people over the hump, individuals should be getting a 1200 check. Married couples, 2400 check 500 for kids. Then the unemployment youre talking about that there may have been some conflict over, but its a beefedup amount of money going to people who are unemployed and this is just hopefully get us through the next 90 days. Hopefully, this economys turned around, and when i say hopefully, and it turns out 90 days not to be as hopeful as we thought, well be back here trying to tackle the same thing again. Senator grassley, i want to thank you for your time. We will check in with you again very shortly thats senator Chuck Grassley. Andrew what a morning it has been. Lets take a quick final check on the markets, show you where things stand right now we are in the red after getting the jobless claims numbers its gotten a lot better than it was in terms of where the market is jobless claims, of course, shattering that 3 million number, but the dow off about 72 points s p 500 off about 6 points well be back tomorrow with cnbcs special coverage continuing right now welcome to squawk on the street. Im david faber along with jim cramer, as we continue to practice social distancing here at cnbc. Good morning to everybody. Of course, another momentous morning led by the jobless claims we got about a half hour ago. 3. 283 Million People filing for those benefits its a staggering number, of course a multiple of the record that we saw, well, the