Points right now down more than 900 following yesterdays huge lerelief rally and that fear bleegd into the bond market. The ten year yield hitting a fresh record low breaking below 0. 9 . Thats a staggering move right now, at 0. 928, but it was lower than that earlier, we now have about 177 cases of coronavirus in the United States as the cdc begins to roll out more testing across the country. Washington state dealing with the largest outbreak so far. Cases doubling in new york well tell you how bad things could get as power lunch begins right now thanks, ty and im kelly evans. Were all over this virus volatility today our Team Coverage of this market sell off rolls on as coronavirus grip wall street once again. Bob pisani is track iing the action at the nyse for us. Rick santelli watching these amazing moves in the bond market meg with the latest on the outbreak and Steve Liesman digging into a potential credit crunch coming for corporate america. Bob, we start with you the debate has been is this a shortterm phenomenon for american businesses or longer term were going to be dealing with for several quarters today, the concerns about lopger term are prevailing. Heres the three sectors that would be most affected energy and industrials, all down here banks are weak on top of that. You see gold rallying here multiyear highs for gold notice china, this is a broad china market is up theres been hopes, been look bing at maps indicating pollution levels are back up in china. Maybe a hopeful sign here but not if you look at the whole demand side. Folks, look whats happening these are new multiyear lows in these sectors. Royal caribbean, marriott, delta, live nation concerns about less participation entertainment. Madison square garden down as well take a look at some of the banks. These are new 52week lows here in all the big banks these are big superregional banks including wells fargo. All new lows so why the chaos and whats going on were debating whether or not theres a recovery and whats it going to look like nobody can answer this question. We dont have enough data. Independeications in china are hopeful. Europe is chaotic. As for the supply versus demand, forget about it. Its a supply problem and a demand problem just ask those people that are in the e or supply. They dont care. Guys, back to you. Thank you very much to the bond market now where yields are just collapsing as the tenyear hits an all time low. Rick santelli live at the cme with more. Hi, rick hi, tyler just look at the yield curve today and net change gives a lot of information twos are doup 11 fives are down 11. Were down 14 and tens 13 in 30 so the curve has a bit of o flat ping because the drops are bigger in the long maturities. This has been the odty mostly steepening with short rates outpacing the drop of longer rates two year note yields at worst at 55 basis points. You see on that chart would have been the worst close since july of 2016. Theyre up a little. Really isnt going to change the comp intraday of tens as alluded to by tyler. 89, there it is on the right side of the chart. Thats the low at least for today and how do you make a bounce to 1 look good start at. 89 one year boons, they sell at minus 68 minus 71 august, late august of last year was their all time low close were within striking distance finally. The dollar index intraday. See where its trading no right now, it is under a half a cent from unchanged on the year which was 86. 39 and it would be the first time in to 2020 we challenged that level. Tyler, back to you thank you very much the major averages seeing their second steep drop in three days after yesterdays big rally. The second biggest point gain for the dow ever after mondays. The dow now down more than 10 from recent highs, so are we heading back to fridays lows . Thats the question for jason, chief Investment Officer for private wealth for glennmeade and tim will join us for the hour welcome to both. Jason, what do you think the head wind is here for global gdp and potentially corporate earnings sure, tyler so we have to recognize first and foremost that you could basically drif a truck between the upside and doup side cases here because nobody has a good beat on how long this is going to last for a region and how governments, corporations or individuals are going to react now having said that, if fair heads prevail through this p pattern and we try to minimize damage while also trying to deal with the disease in ways that weve dealt with other outbreaks in the past, we should experience somewhere around a half a percent to 1 head wind to global gdp growth thats based on assuming that china took its hit and that is what it is and has to pass it to the system and efb else thats affected takes a smaller, but still notable hit along the way in trying to rectify the situation and slow the spread of the disease. That is part of what markets are are reflecting i would argue that markets may be overreflecting a bigger chance of bigger downside at this point in time but you know time will tell on that as we process tim, do those numbers sound in the ballpark to you a little too modest too grave . What do you think . I think for First Quarter gdp, if you look to the main economists on the street, ubs is down. 06 weve seen people cut to the bump bruce at jpmorgan is right down the middle at 1. 2. The bottom line here is we had risk to Global Growth before the coronavirus. So if you think about europes economy. Think about the biggest economy in europe, gdp and the export route into china what was happening with the trade war. Pmis around the world throughout the fall were essentially caving then we were wondering where we were starting to see a bottom. We were. The dynamic here isnt great i think thats eck quities shoud be grappling with because if you think about where we were on those lows of october 3rd before the markets then went up 19 , a lot of that was fed liquidity and i think markets would have been grappling with the same things now with the coronavirus. And jason, in terms of liquidity, let me just go back to the question about whether providing more liquidity, acting as the lender of last resort, are all these things going to help the u. S. Economy or do they risk doing more harm than good so, number one is id say theres two problems to fix. One which the fed and liquidity has no solution to whatsoever. The actual outbreak of the disease and ramifications that come from that and any shutdowns governments have to do regi regionally and otherwise the Economic Impact of that is going to be what it is number one but number two, what theyre trying to avoid the a seizure of Financial Markets and credit markets that could be a second order impact here. With the Central Banks stepping in, they try to avoid that situation and try to keep this from spiralling to the downside out of control and having come second order knock on effects that take this down further. Longterm impact, hoolook, low rates, ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus. Eventually, we have to get out of that trap and some point in time we need it right now what they need to do is once things get back online, they have to take that away at a reasonably fair pace in order to get us back to normal operation. Were not near that right now. To you see signs of financial panic, the kind of crunch situation hes describing. We see empty store shelves do you see a financial mashlgt analogy there . So the panic around getting supplies is largely things weve seen this is an extreme version of that around macro weather and certain events i think the Financial Markets are you can make an argument that the bond market is panicking. Forcing the fed here and i would argue actually that rates this low is detrimental to the economy and this creates tighter financial conditions, not looser why because ultimately, first of all, banks start to reel in credit and at these rates, they arent moving lower because of people are buying debt out of confidence in the growth story theyre going lower as a safe haven. So the create dynamic. If it was nine months ago, we were talking about this tehran ch tehran ch of triple b plus, concern of going to junk the big part of the Credit Community and weve seen credit spreads be reasonably well behaved, buted to see Companies Give you their guidance. The sectors we may talk about later, theyre a lot closer to credit stress than i think people know. Energy being one of them. So jason, here we are, the first week in march. In the first week in april a month from now, corporations are are going to start reporting their earnings would you expect that would be a time where we might take another leg down as both the actual reports and forecasts get revised . So i think i have to go back to my earlier state stalt is that the range of expectations is really, really wide on this i would argue that you know, we started the year at 9. 4 growth for the s p expectations for 2020 were knocked wak to about 7 Percentage Companies theyve started to guide lower or have started ratcheting down numbers. I would expect wed see around zero to 5 growth for 2020 as being ultimate results so but inlg i think market rs already kind of baking that in the question that creates the further leg down is if the downside case gets realized at this point in time meaning prolonged virus contagion and outbreak and or second order impacts on the market those are not our base cases, but they are in the real m of possibility and we need to be aware of them as investors what is the risk, tim, jason sort of alluded to it, that the Financial System could seize up. This is not a financial crisis right now, that i can tell like 2008 was. But are there risks. Not even close. Especially in terms the sovereign Balance Sheets in a very different place corporate Balance Sheets in a quite good place its been buybacks and the ability to raise debt at low rates and do other things with it if you look at the Balance Sheet of the banks, the Money Center Banks have never had better ambulance sheeBalance Sheets i think a lot of this is market positioning. Came into this with 400 billion of Balance Sheet thrown at the market you have an expectation and bob pisani at the start of the segment talked about are we v, u, l shaped recovery i think he was talking economic. I think people think thats the market i think people think the market after december 2018 a lot of people were burned sitting on the sidelines and it was a v shaped recovery and it was a place where you should have been buying with both hands im not saying people should be running for the hills. You can argue were in the same environment and even though there are Great Companies right now that i think are worth owning im sure were talk about them zpl you want to mention a couple disney is a company to me that was rerating on the back of essential ly their disney plus service. Has a studio business thats been cranking for a a couple of years now. And yeah, i understand that their theme park and Consumer Experiences business is 38 of their revenue line, but in the short to medium term, thats a head wind for a company that we were repate rating and using a hybrid model theyre trading inside of where we went before it rerated. And tim is sticking around for the hour jason, thanks so much for joining us appreciate thanks. Our next guest says there are three scenarios for what happens next as the number of coronavirus cases climbs in the u. S. And around the world. Here to break down what the Global Economic fallout could look like is robert kohn great to see you you have the benign serious and severe and which are we now . We dont know were still hopeful that a benign scenario could play out but i think were increasingly worried about the more severe snacenarios and thats why we st out to lay out these scenarios and talk about the Critical Role of policy, as well as the virus itself we started with the science by the way in doing these scenarios. It really does depend on when the pique in cases occurs. In the benign sscenario, if sout korea, japan, italy, make Good Progress in coming weeks in containing the virus andthe u. S. And others are more aggressively going after it, we are still hopeful, still possible we could end up with a pique in the growth in cases in the next six weeks or so and certainly, we believe that in that scenario, you get the v shaped recovery, a pretty rapid bounceback in growth you get some recovery spending as people go back to work and to the theatres but as i say, were less and n less optimistic that that is going to be what happens and more concerned about what we call a serious scenario. And the serious scenario, we dont see a pique in the new cases. And the spread of this disease until the middle of the year perhaps july and that leads to profoundly different outcomes for the Global Economy because with a virus and a pandemic that is of that length and duration, the damage to supply chains and to the Balance Sheets and households is more severe and in that case, were far less comfortable with a quick bounceback in that scenario, we see zero Global Growth theut middle of the year and a gradual recovery in the second half and that would leave as i say, lasting damage that really will put the pressure not just on the central banknow, but on the fiscal authorities, to come in, provide not just credit facilities, but to make fundamental decisions about how whoa to fail and who to bail how you provide support for the industries that are being badly damageded or simply were overextended and got into trouble given the shock. So, robert, do you take any comfort from the reports that the disease or new cases of the disease in china seem to have moderated very dra mmatically in the past week or o so. In other words, they are having sort of lower lows most days in the discovery of new cases is that enkournging to you and if so, how much . Its certainly encourage iin, but i have pretty fat tails in distribution im not a scientist. Not a medical professional, i dont even play one on tv, but we listen to them carefully and the news out of china has been good i would emphasize and its a theme that comes thu all our scenarios, particularly the more serious ones the serious and severe scenario, that policymakers face this tlad off between a very hard containment strategy and one that perhaps is more focused on identification tracing and testing. Gives a higher priority to reanimating the economy. Containment has advocates, but comes at a High Economic cost and we see the chinese strugging to get people back to work where theyve decided to do so so i think our basic view of Eurasian Group is to be cautious about making firm medical judgments about this virus u at this stage lets talk about Central Bank Policy because people are immediately looking to that, people are immediately looking to that for a bailout. Sfwl Central Banks are going to be the front line, but i had no problem with the fed cutting interestrates 50 points to bolster demand yes, it doesnt really address the supply shock element of this, but it does add Additional Support to demand and the combination of supply and demand is unavoidable here. Wish it had been better coordinated, but were living in a world where i think Central Banks and finance ministries are going to alwayg to be in the sense likely to be acting in a seemingly independent or less coordinated fashion. I think though pretty soon were going to really be turning the focus away from spres rate cuts and more to the credit issues. Perhaps as early as next week when we get in england, we get a new budget and we probably may get some action from the bank of england. I think weve also gotten messages out of south korea and japan that credit may be really the next frontier for policy action and ecb really cant do much on Interest Rates some sort of term facility extension is probably where we go so i think once again, the shift will come to providing liquidity from Central Banks now, just one caution on that. When Central Banks do it, they do it based on the idea these are solvent enter theties they are lending to on good collateral thats a great plan as long as youre comfortable so returning to our scenarios. If you really believe the virus will pique in the next six weeks or so and youre in that benign scenario, your liquidity approach works pretty well, but if were talking about a pique that comes in july or later, then the solvency questions are going to be front and center ultimately then, were going to have to pivot governments and Fiscal Authority thanks for your time today. Some dimpt possibilities for the outlook from here. Coronavirus, of course the trigger for virtually all of the recent market mayhem global cases exceeding 95,000. Deaths reaching more than 3,200 and there are 11 deaths and 177 confirmed cases here in the United States. Meg has more on the latest outbreak the numbers here are continuing to climb and with expanding testing capacity, experts expect them to continue to do so today, a doubling of cases in new york to 22 eight tied to the westchester case identified earlier this week new cases being reported in new jersey and tennessee in europe, more than 4,000 cases with italy the largest numbers in germany, france and spain climbing as el italy has ordese more than 290 Million Students are out of school due tong it unparalleled in seattle in king county, washington with at least 31 cases, recommendations for those at risk to consider staying home and away from large groups of people as much b possible. Those of higher risk, age 60 and older, those are Underlying Health systems or weakened immune systems a question on the testing which is more widely available as i understood, first, if you want ed to be b tested, you had the prove you had been in contact with somebody who had been in contact with someone in one of these regions how low is the bare owe now . How much more available are these kits and are they consistent state to state . Well the guidelines now are to make this available to anybody who wants to have a test with a Doctors Orders however, the availability of testing is still coming online so youre not probably not going to be able to walk into your Doctors Office and demand a test band able to get one. These are getting rolled out to Public Health labs commercial companies are going to start coming online next week Quest Diagnostics is going to sfa start on monday. Capacity is expanding, but its not up to the level they want it to be at this moment you asked a very interesting question last night. Not sure we got the answer and that is why has the mo mortality rate been so much more in italy than in south korea where there have been more cases . Really what seems to be happening is that in south korea, theyre doing tremendous amounts of testing theyve tested more than 140 eerpeople so they are probably picking up more mild cases in italy, we understand testing is pretty extensive as well, but the death rate there may speak to some of the understolying conditions and ris b k fakih torreses theres an ageing population there this seems to be hitting harder, hard and those are the people who are at risk for severe disease and death from covid19 difference between italy and south korea. Worries about the spread of coronavirus and supply chain disruptions had people flocking to groes ary stores. Take a look at these pictures from someone who visiting a costco in wayne, new jersey. Been to that one over the weekend. It wasnt me now we have nowhere to go. And everyones taking the baby wipes. They found empty shelves like these and the run has lifed toks like kroger and costco which is higher in the past week and has earnings after the bell, lets bring in rupesh from open heimer good to see you. First of all, can both kroger and costco cope with this level of demand for the foreseeable future yeah, i think they can. So i was at costco the past few days and stocks on the toilet paper so i think ko is handling it well and then for kroger, i would say the same thing if you give these companies time, they are able to restock their shelves, so i would expect the stocks to continue improving in the comiing days i guess the question goes back to the longterm benefit that these stocks might see. Its understandable there would be kind of a one time rerating as people say you know what, and by the way, they have backing buy kroger r and costco has been one of the better performers, but is there a structural change in the value of these businesses because of coronavirus its more temperatuorary. But what youve seen is investors are seeking more safety and both kroger and costco are nor of that flight to safety if you think of earnings for both, if you start to see people staying home more, hilike kroge, they would benefit for more in home consumption its tim. I think you may have partially answered the question because you talked about how its maybe a safety trade but if you think about costco and walmart and target to a lesser extent, these are stocks that have rerated massively over the last 12 to 18 months there was more of an earnings dessive play but kroger announced excellent Gross Margins and todays numbers had nothing to do with coronavirus. Is there a reason why these companies should be trading near the top of range independent of the coronavirus . Yeah, so coronavirus youre right. It didnt really have much of an impact on krogers report. They did indicate in february their trends grew modestly and coronavirus had aer bigger impact Going Forward costco, the same thing the report isnt going to have benefits from coronavirus. The february sales report i think youll see a significant improvement ffr february are these stocks sustainable as we look at the dow now down 1,000 points again i think these names youll see continued outperformance as you look out 12 to 18 month, these gains would start to disapate youre going to see a temporary benefit for a few weeks. Youre not going to go back to the store and buy more toilet pap ner the next couple of weeks. What other retailers might benefit from whats going on Bjs Wholesale Club which reported this morning. They would be beneficiary. Sprouts Farmers Market then the Dollar Store Channel dollar general, more than 75 of business in the grocery category they could see a nice lift related to the coronavirus panic buying thank you very much appreciate it. Thank you. And for more on travel stock, over to seema for todays edition of trading nation. Thank you travel stocks deep in the red today. Some of the worst performers on the s p 500. Cruise lines taking the brunt of the pain as carnival grand princess ship is held off the coast of San Francisco with some passengers displaying flu like symptoms the stoblg now down as much as 50 this year as the spread intensifies s. Is this group a no touch on account of outbreak or could there be opportunity . Mark newton, gina sanchez joining me for trading nation today. You hook at look at the price to earnings ratios and the who the tells, you could say they look compelling they do, but i think until we understand whether or not this virus is contained, when many doubt, stay out. Thats kind of my view right w now. We dont know where this goes and we still need to figure out what the bottom looks like and the cruise industry, Airline Industry, whotel industry, theyre not going to be able to recoop this later. These are probably going to be losses they cant recoup and for some places like the Airline Industry, that is going to put them back into nonprofitability. So you know, i dont know that anything is really attractive right now. Mark, do you agree . If you look at a name like carnival headed for its biggest one day drop since 2009, what does the chart tell you . They look like an area to avoid in the short run weve seen heavy volume on the declines a lot have broken down stocks like carnival are down over 60 since the highs back in january 2018 and now its right near 28 so thats the lowest level weve seen since 2011. Very much a steep drop oversold does not necessarily mean buy technically its akin to trying to putt a golf ball down a flight of marble stairs and get it to is to be before the pbottom you look at the dow jones transports this continues to be a weak gro group. Undercut the entire area of lows from last summer so yes, oversold, but we need to see evidence of b stabilization and until that happens, particularly if the stocks are declining because of the coronavirus, which doesnt seem to be contained, but if anything growing in many countries, its really wise to step aside and let this group stabilize yeah, you could point out back during sars in 2002, travel rebounded within two months after that was contained for more trading nation, head the to our website or follow us on twitter at trading nation back to you. Thank you very much for more on the travel stocks, lets look at the airlines which are getting crushed today. Now the industry could face a 113 billion hit from coronavirus. American airlines haishares are down 10 , but even the index is down 7. 5 . Phil lebeau is in d. C. Where xextives are meeting to discuss the growing risks and a lot of concern out there. As you look at the transports, the big component driving it down now hitting bear market levels, its the airlines whether its talking about southwest or american, united, theyre all down today a substantial tanl a substantial tanl and therefore youre seeing schedule cuts from many of the airlines you mentioned the potential global cost impact let me state this again how much its changed since february 12th back then, International Trans association said its 30 billion. Today, they upped it to 113 billion. Potentially. Thats the potential impact. Earlier today here in washington, we had a chance to catch up with stan deal, who runs Boeing Commercial Airplanes and we put the question to him as airlines are dealing with this fall off in orders and the financial hit, will it impact future orders . Heres what he had to say. Right now, its a shortterm Effect Airlines are taking response putting airplanes on the ground and watching the situation longterm though, we see the demand will still p there. We think revenues going to fall off in if First Quarter i was talking with gary kelly, the ceo of southwest airlines. He said were looking at a number of things, whether its putting off discretionary hiring seeing other cost cuts that we could put in place theyre not going to stop traveling, getting out on planes, but they like other airlines like jet blue, theyre looking at their schedule now and saying a, do we keep it in place. Jet blues said theyre going to cut schedule by 5 or in the case of southwest, you look and say look were going to hold for now, but if these bookings continue to be as far down as they are at some point, southwest may have to cut its schedule so its a fluid situation, kelly, but one where the Airline Industry is looking at this saying we dont have guidance in terms of when things will stabilize with future bookings hey, phil, t tim. How about are they discussing or this is naughty stuff, but how about lowering prices and as airline investors, we worry about capacity because airlines have never had the discipline before and we worry about revenue per available seat miles or rasm. So what do you think on this he says were not cutting air fares. He believes that generally speaking, the Airlines First will move towards cutting schedules. Meaning basically cutting frequency. Instead of ten flights a day for united or american between chicago and new york, may go down to eight, to seven. They do not think and this is southwest and other airline executive, they do not think this is a case where people will say you know what, you drop the fare down to 19, yeah, ill get back on the plane. What theyre seeing, its not financial, especially on the corporate side, corporations telling their employees youre not going to a particular event and thats why they are not lookinging at this saying lets just cut fares dramatically. Thats why again, no point cutting the price if no one will get on the plane anyhow. Tim, just want to mention, united is down 10 with american if youre an airline investor. I am. Im long delta heres something that people probably dont want to know and here is that airline, which have been rerating gradually for the last five years, certainly they did three years ago into a sideways track youve had a range between 48 on the downside and 62. And its been a very tradeable range for the last couple of years. Its broken through those and if yu look, delta to me is best if breed. Got the best Balance Sheet, no max exposure theyve got a brand and i think you want to buy it this chart has broken below whats been at least two or three year support i dont trade on technicals solely, but as a guide post and something to think about in terms of timing. A guide post says hey, this is an opportunity or hey, watch out. Both. I think that delta is on valuation, br very defendable although it probably changes in terms of probably the ity. All right ahead on power lunch, were still monitoring the sell off. The dow is down more than 1,000 points and more than 50 s p stocks are hitting new lows. Plus, opec reaching an agreement for a big Production Cut but Energy Stocks are down 30 from their recreent highs. Will this help relieve the pressure well discuss when power lunch returns. We see engineers simulating the future to improve today. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Yes im stuck in the middle with you, no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. Especially by Something Like your cloud. Its a problem. But the ibm cloud is different. Its the most open and secure public cloud for business. It can manage all your apps and data from anywhere. So it can help take on anything, from rebooking flights, on the fly to restocking shelves on demand. Without getting in your way. Harvey weinstein is being moved from a hospital to a jail at Rikers Island weinstein has been in the hospital since he was convicted of rape. Weinsteins sentencing is scheduled for next wednesday the director general of the World Health Organization is urging nations to redouble their efforts to fight the coronavirus and telling them h is not the time to give up. This is not a time of for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops. Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans. Health officials are are trying allay fears that pets can catch and spread the coronavirus. This after a dog tested weakly positive thats their words, in hong kong Officials Say it was likely due to contact with its infected owner. The World Health Organization says theres no evidence that dogs can become infected or transmit the virus, still hong kong officials recommend owners avoid kissing their pets because they dont want the pets to get it from the humans we are the problem got that tims got it. Thanks very much. We are near the lows of the session. The dow is down b about 1,000 points the s p and nasdaq also tanking and russell 2000 small caps getting hit the hardest. Down about 3. 9 . Nasdaq down about 2. 9 well call ate the outperformer. All eyes on a ten year yield today. Oil closing lower despite opec looking to secure a cut. The deal is conditional on one country in particular fulfilling its end of the bargain russia Brian Sullivan has more. Yes, opec met today opec plus tomorrow much different meeting im here, not in vienna. They have a proposal to cut more so that would be a 3. 7 million barrel a day total cult. One million was like the, if you dont do a million, got it look out below safety cut. If we dont get russia to join on to one 1. 5 million, look out below because from what, going back and forth with people at the meeting, there is no plan b. So if russia does not get on board, most traders i talked to this morning suggest we could end tomorrow in the high 30s for oil. In other words, oil will tank tomorrow unless we dont, unless we get that deal whats the read on what russia wants anybody know . I lived in russia for a couple of years . In terms of production and swing capacity and a budget russia need this is this cooperation more than anybody. Historically, russias been more tactical, but the cooperation between opec and non opec has been almost unprecedent. Its the new opec by the way, ecuador quit today so maybe russia could take their spot because theyre not a full member russias the kid who wants to cake and eat it, too they want higher price, but they dont want to be the ones to cut protection and alexander knnova, a very nice man, ive talked to him, the Russian Energy minister he calls putputin. Hes not making the decision the question is really on compliance because saudi arabia seems to be the one that has to eat essentially all of what is noncompliant and some point, theyre transitioning to a 2030 economy. Remember oprah winfrey, you get a car and you get a car . Its opec. Youre going to cut and youre going to cut because youre right. Saudi arabia is the only one that seem to bear this theyve got a new emergency minister a son of the king. More powerful than his predecessor. Labb libyas gone pretty much offline. They got piracy now. The one ship a day thats leaving is getting boarded by pirates. A captain killed a couple of weeks ago. Thats how sad the situation is there. Bottom line is this. No deal tomorrow, possibly look out below for oil prices and these beaten up prices were going to be joined by andy lipau what do you think of what brian said no deal tomorrow, look out below and how far down is below . I agree with brian completely because thats my feeling. If opec does nothing, thats the nightmare scenario and the first stop is going to be a, ti with a three handle on it and could go down it could really fall into the 30s i dont think theres any doubt because the demand destruction were seeing out of china over the last couple of months is three to four Million Barrels a day and the deal theyre talking about now is only to increase Production Cuts for three months until the end of june 2020 theyve said nothing about extending the cuts they implemented in december 2019 so the world happens to be a wash due to oil due to this demand destruction at the same time, that Oil Production continues to increase although at a slower rate and in the u. S. But as well as in brazil, guyana and norway. Guyana, theyve got election there. Hess, been a bright spot is there any indication were starting to see production finally start to slow in the basin and Eagle Ford Shale i dont think weve seen it yet. Weve seen anytime the amount of drilling rate, but we still see increases in Oil Production. You saw that in the latest stat where is production in the u. S. Rose to 13. 1 Million Barrels a day. I guess the good news for the producers is we now have all this Pipeline Infrastructure to deliver it to the texas gulf coast and make its way into the export market. Maybe good news for those producers, but goes back to the overstock issue. Before the december opec meeting, i i came on, for 40 year, opec was the bogeyman. Four letter word opec is our friend i know it sounds weird because theyre a cartel, if they can get prices up, thats the best thing that can happen to some of these beaten up u. S. Producers. Is the hold this industry is going through now or will face, is that the best news for prices and how long does that take . Because the industry has not been reinvesting in itself and at some point, thats an issue for supply its probably going to take 12 to 18 months to see it on the supply side, but theres no doubt that cap ex is being cut as we speak. Exxon just came out and said theyre cutting down and slowing down their drilling in the permean basin as well. The fact is every time opec act to reduce supply and prices rise, these producers get antsy and want to drill another hole in the ground and get more oil out. Going to leave it there thank you. Great to have you as always. All but two s p sectors are trading more than 10 below their recent 52week highs as overfly leveraged industries feel the pressure, do investors need to worry aboua edt crit crunch power lunch is back in two new york state is taking business to the next level. Supporting Innovative Companies that will shape tomorrow and Building Workforce development and tuitionfree College Programs to generate the talent companies need. 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And that kind of Financial Confidence can help you sleep better at night. With the right Financial Advisor life can be brilliant. Weveryone, looknk isntat your phones. The design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market yes. When we do we launch . Unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. Why the delay . Cognizant is helping banks use Digital Technologies at scale to advance speed to market. More and more companies are warning the coronavirus outbreak will hurt their bottom lines including those carries heavy debt and now top credit agencies are starting to sound the alarm. Steve liesman is here to explain. Top executives at all three Credit Rating agencies tell cnbc theyre chosely analyzing the potential effects of the coronavirus on corporate and so earn debt. They say definite hi something were monitoring cellulosely s p saying there will be more ratings ratings actions. Theyve changed 27 including seven downgrades and 15 companies faced on negative credit watch the debts attracting the most scrutiny airlines with weaker Balance Sheets other companies in travel and tourism. Downgraded sam sonite and saber. Commodity companies also being watched along with countries that rely on commodity its a big flag for investors going down the credit ladder hunting for yield. As the virus breds to other economies, a greater number of find it were a long way from the debt meltdown, but for some individual companies and countries, probably not so far away theres probably as distinction here theres a difference between the quality of the crediting in the market and the ability of companies to access credit at this point not necessarily theres enough liquid more than anything else liquid is available and plentiyful until its not. Thats why we have to be careful. Investors should be careful of things that are too good to be true it may be a great bargain i totally agree and back to liquidity, you know, this is a wall street dynamic, too. So when you get to you call up your dealer, need a quote in a difficult market, 15 years ago, you got it. Now its, hey, we can work that for you. And thats very challenging in this environment. On the other site, what the agencies have told me is Interest Rates coming down while spread comes up, Interest Rate comes down. Also not crazy to think some sovereigns might be eligible for bailouts the imf and world bank had put out the welcome matt for countries to come to them for help its going to be very careful which are the weakest ones the other probably is stuff like this happens, you find out basically where the bodies are buried who holds the risk is that entity able to hold the risk when defaults happen, there isnt in which cash flow to make thames hes worried about all the years and just how light the covenants one of the, and fallen angels, those are the ones that people dont expect. Steve, we appreciate it still ahead, shall we . Over to ty its been a wild week for the dow, it says 1,000point moves, higher, lower, in between. What does all the this volatility mean for your 401 k and savings . Well here more, after this. Why dont you call Td Ameritrade for a strategy gut check . Whats that . You run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. Couldve used that before i hired my interior decorator. Voila maybe a couple throw pillows would help. Get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. My next guest is empower retirement ceo ed murphy, says his customers are showing remarkable resiliency. When you say resiliency, i assume you mean theyre hanging in there, not acting irrationally. No, we dont see that what we see is inquiries up. Our call volumes are up 15 to 20 , activity on the web, using mobile devices is up, but theres no capitulation. People are calling to get account balance information, theyre calling for reassurance, but were not seeing really an increase in trading activity or flight to quality. Are most people sufficiently diversified . I would say they are sufficiently diversified, tiyler a disproportionate amount are target date funds, and so they have exposure to fixed income, exposure to quite. So from that standpoint, were seeing people well diversified. Are the target date funds working as they theoretically are intended to . I think to some degree yes, but thats okay, because 100 of my money is in it. You and i can both be age 40. Youre willing to take risks, im not willing to take a lot of risks. Youre healthy, i have cancer. So longevity is a factor, and we get placed in the same target date fund. I think where the market is going to a more personalized type of structure that takes into consideration some of necessary critical inputs. Thats what were working on frankly with several Asset Management firms. And there can be target date funds for 40 years olds that are more risky, so you have to know whats in your fund, as you always do. Increasingly were hearing from nearly the 10 million americans, theyre looking for advice whether that advice is embedded it a product, or delivered by a human being, they want to turn it over on a discretionary basis. Not to belabor the point, but its always stuck in my head theres an implicit promise in those funds that if im a 40yearold and i put my money into one of these target date funds, the amount will be sufficient to support me in retirement is going to be there. Well, certain things are explicit, too. Theres some protection on the down side, certainly some up side, but i think the question ultimately is, have they folks been in a bull market so long, you talked about the lack of capitulation, does that worry you . It does worry me, but i think that the industry has done a good job in reassuring investors that this is longterm money and you shouldnt react emotionally to the swings in the market, that its for the most part longterm money. You get the better of dollarcost averaging. And we have to leave it there. Thank you. Closing bell, watch the next hour, well be here tomorrow. Welcome to closing bell, everyone im sara eisen on the floor of the new york stock exchange, another major selloff on wall street volatility continue toss shakes this market. Im here at the post of royal caribbean. Stock is down 16 , tracking the worst day since 2009 also you can see can value, norwegian down double digits those three stocks, the crews lines, the worst performers, 59 minutes left of trade